248 replies to this topic

[Buzzkill Pauley]

The sox consider clay mortenson a starter.

For the PawSox, I hope.

[RedOctober3829]

The Scutaro trade frees up some $$ for #RedSox to make an "aggressive bid'' for Roy Oswalt, said a baseball source
https://twitter.com/#!/jcrasnick/status/160868472895700993

[Robinson Checo]

Yikes. A starting line-up that will include Sweeney, Darnell McDonald and Nick Punto is down right frightening. The Sox can add Oswalt or Floyd, but when the SS boots the double play ball, we will all be freaking out and calling for Edgar Renteria.

The odds on finishing in 4th behind the Jays just went up.

[RedOctober3829]

The Scutaro trade frees up some $$ for #RedSox to make an "aggressive bid'' for Roy Oswalt, said a baseball source

https://twitter.com/#!/jcrasnick/status/160868472895700993

[Papelbon's Poutine]

So, moving Scutaro saves $6M, but I still don't see how this gets us under the cap enough for Floyd or Oswalt. Either here upthread or elsewhere someone had the current at ~ $170M plus medicals, so roughly $180M. Floyd could fit snuggly under or close to, as he's about a $4M hit, but that leaves us with literally zero flexibility for an inseason pickup. Oswalt puts us over. At the very least it will be a boring trade dealine unless Ben has something else up his sleeve.

[Snowplow]

Maybe they'll pull a Hanley Ramirez trade from out of nowhere?

[knucklecup]

Scutaro is an average Major League short stop. If this deal makes 4th place more likely, the Sox were going no place to begin with.

[rembrat]

I think the "plus medicals" was a joke, PP.

[knucklecup]

#redsox's trade of M Scutaro raises possibility -- Gavin Floyd talks w/#whitesox expand to include SS Alexei Ramirez or Eduardo Escobar. 

http://twitter.com/C...869828368941057

[bosockboy]

Not likely....but maybe pieces to Chicago for Castro as part of Theo compensation saga.

[Trautwein's Degree]

So, moving Scutaro saves $6M, but I still don't see how this gets us under the cap enough for Floyd or Oswalt. Either here upthread or elsewhere someone had the current at ~ $170M plus medicals, so roughly $180M. Floyd could fit snuggly under or close to, as he's about a $4M hit, but that leaves us with literally zero flexibility for an inseason pickup. Oswalt puts us over. At the very least it will be a boring trade dealine unless Ben has something else up his sleeve.

Don't worry, Cherrington has deals in place to send Pedroia and Lester to the Royals for Chris Getz and Bruce Chen. Signing Oswalt to a 4 year deal will not be a problem.

[Rasputin]

I'm going to refrain from much comment because I don't want to have to wipe my brain matter off my monitor. The difference between Scutaro and Punto/Aviles is unlikely to make the difference in anything but there damn well better be another shoe to drop.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I think the "plus medicals" was a joke, PP.

No, he was actually serious. Each team is hit for $9-10M a year for benefits.

[E5 Yaz]

Mortensen is the Rockies revenge for Manny Delcarmen.

And Larry Sheets

[rembrat]

#redsox's trade of M Scutaro raises possibility -- Gavin Floyd talks w/#whitesox expand to include SS Alexei Ramirez or Eduardo Escobar. 

http://twitter.com/C...869828368941057

Not likely mainly because the money doesn't work. The Cuban Missile brings along fresh new extension and an AAV of $7.8MM. Plus Floyd's $7MM.

[radsoxfan]

GIven that Scutaro is close to an average SS on a 1 year deal at reasonable money, I'm surprised the Sox couldn't get anything of value for him. A lot of teams (including the Red Sox now ironically) could use an average major league SS considering some of the guys getting trotted out there. He certainly is not worth a big prospect package, but I would have thought maybe a decent prospect or two.

Can't really judge this deal until we see what happens with the money, but at this point it certainly doesn't make the Sox any better.

[SoxScout]

No, he was actually serious. Each team is hit for $9-10M a year for benefits.

As seen here: http://sonsofsamhorn...ost__p__3883187

[rembrat]

No, he was actually serious. Each team is hit for $9-10M a year for benefits.

Really? Um, ok. I've never heard of that...

Edit: My apologies!

Edited by rembrat, 21 January 2012 - 06:54 PM.

[Jed Zeppelin]

I knew Punto would find a way.

[E5 Yaz]

#redsox's trade of M Scutaro raises possibility -- Gavin Floyd talks w/#whitesox expand to include SS Alexei Ramirez or Eduardo Escobar.

http://twitter.com/C...869828368941057

what the heck? how many prospects will KW want for that?

[Rudy Pemberton]

Aviles hasn't played more than 34 games at SS since '08, Punto barely played SS last year. I'm skeptical that they'll platoon these guys at SS.

Someone else, or would they go with Iglesias?

[Savin Hillbilly]

#redsox's trade of M Scutaro raises possibility -- Gavin Floyd talks w/#whitesox expand to include SS Alexei Ramirez or Eduardo Escobar.

http://twitter.com/C...869828368941057

Escobar would seem to be almost completely redundant with Iglesias. Ramirez, now that's another story.....but that would entirely negate the salary relief factor.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

GIven that Scutaro is close to an average SS on a 1 year deal at reasonable money, I'm surprised the Sox couldn't get anything of value for him. A lot of teams (including the Red Sox now ironically) could use an average major league SS considering some of the guys getting trotted out there. He certainly is not worth a big prospect package, but I would have thought maybe a decent prospect or two.

Can't really judge this deal until we see what happens with the money, but at this point it certainly doesn't make the Sox any better.

I would have thought MIL might have interest enough to get a decent prospect back.

[RedOctober3829]

Iglesias had a .554 OPS at AAA last season. There's no way he's the answer this season. Aviles and Punto aren't the answer either. They better be getting a competent SS.

[dcmissle]

The Red Sox have all the "payroll flexibility" in the world. There is no hard ceiling in play here. Management is saying they don't want to pay more. They're not signing or trading for more expensive pieces this offseason because of anything other than a management decision.

You seem intent on pinning that on Epstein's past moves. I find that narrowminded

Except that we're in the realm of owner's prerogative here. The GM made a couple of execrable big dollar FA signings, and the owner is saying the pot is only so big.

We may not like it -- especially since Cashman was not similarly constrained after pouring lots of money down numerous rat holes -- but it's a reasonable response.

Sucks for Ben as well as us -- though if he take him at his word on the Crawford deal, maybe he's just being held to account.

If the ownership is incapable of evaluating personnel -- indeed, most of us desperately wish that owners stay out of personnel, for good reason -- then this is one of the few ways of holding people to account. This and firing people.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Not likely mainly because the money doesn't work. The Cuban Missile brings along fresh new extension and an AAV of $7.8MM. Plus Floyd's $7MM.

I would assume Iglesias is one of the traded pieces in any deal for Floyd, freeing up another $2MM.

[bombdiggz]

Mortensen is a sinker-slider-changeup pitcher with a low swinging strike%, low K/BB, and low velocity on the fastball (~87 mph). Last year he was lucky on BABIP (.257), so he's even worse than his results.

This looks awful. The Red Sox now have holes at SS, RF, LF and on the bench. They have lost their best relievers in Papelbon and Bard, replacing them with inferior substitutes in Bailey and Melancon.

The team must have confidence that Middlebrooks and Iglesias can perform in the event of an infield injury. That's more confidence than I have.

There are 6 million reasons why the Sox made this deal and Mortensen isn't one of them. We need to see what they do with the money.

If they are able to get Floyd, then the rotation is likely to be much improved with a stronger front four and either Bard or Padilla in the 5 spot, though it raises the likelihood Bard goes back to the pen, improving the pen from last year's edition.

On paper we look weaker in RF, but JD Drew ended up being a whole lot of suck, the liklihood of a McDonald/Sweeney platoon out-producing the RF from last year is pretty great and we are likely to get better production out of LF as well.

I know this offseason is different, but we don't need to keep pretending the world has ended every time the Sox make a move...

Edited by bombdiggz, 21 January 2012 - 07:13 PM.

[rembrat]

I would assume Iglesias is one of the traded pieces in any deal for Floyd, freeing up another $2MM.

I wouldn't assume that. Iglesias for potentially 1 year of Floyd is a steep price.

[Comeback Kid]

Maybe they'll pull a Hanley Ramirez trade from out of nowhere?

One can only hope . . .

[tonyarmasjr]

I know it's a salary dump, but I don't understand the Mortensen part. Scutaro's an average-above average SS with one year left on his deal. There HAS to be somebody out there who'd be willing to part with an A-ball lottery ticket or two. In other words, someone who has a chance of being useful at some point ever...

[Rudy Pemberton]

It's difficult to envision how the Sox can afford the prospects it would take to get Floyd. They certainly can't trade WMB, Iglesias now since they have no depth at 3b or ss. Oswalt, or I guess Edwin Jackson have to be the pitching targets, unless the freed up cash is going to Cody Ross, or worst-case to pay arb awards.

Just real curious about the plan at SS (contenders don't platoon at that position), and the pitching staff. Sox have a ton of arms, how do they sort them all out?

[Clears Cleaver]

I wouldn't assume that. Iglesias for potentially 1 year of Floyd is a steep price.

unless Ben thinks that Iglesias will never hit and thus will never play every day for the Sox. then its understandable. There will also be a draft pick coming back when Floyd leaves.

Crawford and Iglesias for Hanley? and sign Oswalt?

[Rudy's Curve]

AL SS' hit .266/.321/.386 last year - that's a pretty low bar and something Aviles should be able to approach. Punto can be mixed in when the Sox have a GB pitcher going against a RHP.

[Rudy Pemberton]

AL SS' hit .266/.321/.386 last year - that's a pretty low bar and something Aviles should be able to approach. Punto can be mixed in when the Sox have a GB pitcher going against a RHP.

I'm sure Aviles can outhit most SS, I'm just unconvinced he can be an everyday SS at the big league level defensively.

[EvilEmpire]

Crawford and Iglesias for Hanley?

That doesn't make much sense for the Marlins..

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Floyd has an option for 2013 @ $9.5m.

(null)

[radsoxfan]

unless Ben thinks that Iglesias will never hit and thus will never play every day for the Sox. then its understandable. There will also be a draft pick coming back when Floyd leaves.

Crawford and Iglesias for Hanley? and sign Oswalt?

You forgot about the 60 million the Sox would have to throw in to make someone take the rest of Crawford's deal

[mr_smith02]

unless Ben thinks that Iglesias will never hit and thus will never play every day for the Sox. then its understandable. There will also be a draft pick coming back when Floyd leaves.

Crawford and Iglesias for Hanley? and sign Oswalt?

Seems like Youk would make more sense for the Marlins...and Sox.

[Rudy's Curve]

I'm sure Aviles can outhit most SS, I'm just unconvinced he can be an everyday SS at the big league level defensively.

I don't think Scutaro's defense is going to be hard to replace, though - his range to his left seemed nonexistent and he made a ton of mental mistakes. If they mix in Punto in the right spots, I don't think SS defense will be any worse than it was last year.

Edited by Rudy's Curve, 21 January 2012 - 07:37 PM.

[Sprowl]

There are 6 million reasons why the Sox made this deal and Mortensen isn't one of them. We need to see what they do with the money.

If they are able to get Floyd, then the rotation is likely to be much improved with a stronger front four and either Bard or Padilla in the 5 spot, though it raises the likelihood Bard goes back to the pen, improving the pen from last year's edition.

On paper we look weaker in RF, but JD Drew ended up being a whole lot of suck, the liklihood of a McDonald/Sweeney platoon out-producing the RF from last year is pretty great and we are likely to get better production out of LF as well.

I know this offseason is different, but we don't need to keep pretending the world has ended every time the Sox make a move...

I don't see any reason to pretend that this offseason has improved the Red Sox in any way. Every step seems to be a step backwards. The bullpen has plenty of volume, but the closer and set-up positions are weaker, not stronger. If you want to push Bard back to the bullpen, then his value is reduced. Moving Bard to the starting rotation was one of the very few hopes for improvement from existing talent. If you want to hope that RF will be improved with a career minor-leaguer and a zero-power flop platooning, by all means knock yourself out. Presumably you would then acknowledge that Ellsbury, Pedroia and Gonzalez will regress from career years.

The team discovers that it can't afford anything, so it spends 1.75m/yr on a utility infielder -- but that's OK: he's now the regular shortstop, so he must be a bargain!

Floyd will not be free: he's a bargain-priced innings-eater, and will cost dearly in prospects -- presumably including one or both of Middlebrooks and Iglesias.

This is a weaker team on paper and in the field, but there is lots of depth in fungible relievers and scrap-heap starters.

[mauidano]

This is a weaker team on paper and in the field, but there is lots of depth in fungible relievers and scrap-heap starters.

Pawtucket is gonna have a helluva team to start the year. Loaded with AAAA players?

[kieckeredinthehead]

It's like the front office looked at September and decided the problem was they didn't have enough middle relief to cover the 2nd and 3rd innings.

Edited by kieckeredinthehead, 21 January 2012 - 07:43 PM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

If you want to hope that RF will be improved with a career minor-leaguer and a zero-power flop platooning, by all means knock yourself out. Presumably you would then acknowledge that Ellsbury, Pedroia and Gonzalez will regress from career years.

Red Sox RF had a 299 OBP, 353 SLG last year; I'd expect improvement this year. Sweeney has little power, but can get on base and play the field. Not really sure what to expect from Ellsbury; but Pedroia and Gonzalez have had similar production for ~4 years, I'd expect more of the same although injury always a risk. hard to see back of rotation being worse. even if they play as they did last year, should be a 93-95 win team. My biggest concern now is positional depth, and obviously SS. ugh.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I don't see any reason to pretend that this offseason has improved the Red Sox in any way. Every step seems to be a step backwards. The bullpen has plenty of volume, but the closer and set-up positions are weaker, not stronger. If you want to push Bard back to the bullpen, then his value is reduced. Moving Bard to the starting rotation was one of the very few hopes for improvement from existing talent. If you want to hope that RF will be improved with a career minor-leaguer and a zero-power flop platooning, by all means knock yourself out. Presumably you would then acknowledge that Ellsbury, Pedroia and Gonzalez will regress from career years.

The team discovers that it can't afford anything, so it spends 1.75m/yr on a utility infielder -- but that's OK: he's now the regular shortstop, so he must be a bargain!

Floyd will not be free: he's a bargain-priced innings-eater, and will cost dearly in prospects -- presumably including one or both of Middlebrooks and Iglesias.

This is a weaker team on paper and in the field, but there is lots of depth in fungible relievers and scrap-heap starters.

This is absolutely correct IMO -- there is no reason to think that the Sox have improved this offseason. At best they've maintained an even talent level with last year.

Trading Scutaro may free up enough guaranteed payroll to allow Ben the chance to shoot his wad. Here's hoping he aiming at the right target, because I haven't seen any move he's made as in any way impressive.

[BucketOBalls]

This is absolutely correct IMO -- there is no reason to think that the Sox have improved this offseason. At best they've maintained an even talent level with last year.

Trading Scutaro may free up enough guaranteed payroll to allow Ben the chance to shoot his wad. Here's hoping he aiming at the right target, because I haven't seen any move he's made as in any way impressive.

Neither option is even that good. Oswalt is pretty much a lock to get injured and had an ERA+ 0f 105 last year anyway. Floyd is a consistent mediocrity(almost dead average the last 2 years)...which would be an improvement on last years consistent travesty, but not something to get excited about.

Does Aviles have pictures of someone? Seems to be alot of faith in a guy who hasn't been all that good.

[aksoxfan]

I don't see any reason to pretend that this offseason has improved the Red Sox in any way. Every step seems to be a step backwards. The bullpen has plenty of volume, but the closer and set-up positions are weaker, not stronger. If you want to push Bard back to the bullpen, then his value is reduced. Moving Bard to the starting rotation was one of the very few hopes for improvement from existing talent. If you want to hope that RF will be improved with a career minor-leaguer and a zero-power flop platooning, by all means knock yourself out. Presumably you would then acknowledge that Ellsbury, Pedroia and Gonzalez will regress from career years.

The team discovers that it can't afford anything, so it spends 1.75m/yr on a utility infielder -- but that's OK: he's now the regular shortstop, so he must be a bargain!

Floyd will not be free: he's a bargain-priced innings-eater, and will cost dearly in prospects -- presumably including one or both of Middlebrooks and Iglesias.

This is a weaker team on paper and in the field, but there is lots of depth in fungible relievers and scrap-heap starters.

I must be stupid: i don't understand or like any of these off-season moves.

[TomRicardo]

What an awful trade.

I mean it would have been better just to trade Scutaro for Cash.

[smastroyin]

Hey Poutine, you need to calm down.

Here's the deal. Theo leaving, no matter who was the impetus for it, has left a hole. While it is great that Cherington got his chance, what this means is that the FO has not brought in any talent to replace him. It is not a slam on Ben it is simply a numbers game. As far as I have seen, they are net negative on baseball ops people and also on scouts. This kind of disarray in an organization can lead to difficulty making decisions - their ability to collect and process data necessarily is affected unless you think the organization was over-resourced in the first place. Rumors cannot always be trusted but it seems to me that they are an organization that is not acting decisively. They are going in a few different directions and the things that work out seem more to be the things that worked out than things they were striving for. You can make me a list of things that have happened and it is not going to change my observation, baseball teams aren't the only organizations in the world and this is one that, from an outside perspective, has lost some of its faith in itself.

Also because of the way the off-season has gone, it is unclear whether baseball ops under Ben currently have the ability to sell a player of any sort to Lucchino, Henry, et al. Frankly I don't think that they do. He has been playing this off-season as a guy under marching orders to get payroll lower. Literally the only move they have done that doesn't reflect this is offering Ortiz arbitration. It's a hard job and I wouldn't want it, but it does mean that in terms of product on the field, the Red Sox organization is no longer doing everything they can to improve it. Say what you will about his actual decisions but one thing I would never say is that Theo didn't have maximizing W's on his mind when he made his decisions.

Regarding Lackey, you are a fucking dimwit. I'm sorry but when you talk to me like I'm an asshole I'm giving it back to you. The timing of the cap being calculated is exactly why they need to figure this out, if they are so concerned about being even a dollar over the luxury cap. They know his prognosis and they know that unless he is a Wes Welker freak he's not going to be back in 2012 after that surgery. So they damn well have to understand if they are going to be able to kick in that clause, because if it saves them money after he misses the time (when they calculate the cap) then that is money they could use. Whether that would be communicated to us is in question but given how close they are to the cap and how much they are talking about it, the $3 million difference with Lackey could be a significant driver of their decisions. So either they don't actually know if the clause is in play (Ben said as much which is why I made the comment anyway) or they are being exceptionally risk averse in regards to the cap.

All of that said, as I stated explicitly in my post, I'm not too worried about dealing Scutaro. If it leads to something else then that something else is likely more valuable than the difference between Scutaro and Aviles. But the mere fact that they are being forced to think of trade-offs like that, at this late hour in the off-season, does not bode well. It comes down to the difference between the following two statements:

"You can sign another starter if you can get rid of Scutaro's salary first"
"You can sign another starter but you have to shed Scutaro's salary"

If indeed we are in a situation of the first statement, then what that means is they would rather risk talent drop (e.g. you trade Scutaro but then can't sign the player you want) than salary increase (e.g. you sign the player then try to shed some of the salary). Now there is a third option which is that they already have some agreement in principle and that there is another shoe to drop here and it's just a matter of announcements and playing it smart to maximize return for Scutaro. But there is also a fourth, which is that there is no other option and this was merely a shedding of salary for the sake of shedding salary, which would be the worst of all options.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Basically, the Sox seem to be hoping to cobble together ~750 above-average IP at 3rd SP, 4th SP, 5th SP, 7th-inning reliever, and 8th-inning reliever from among:

• Buchholz
• Bard
• Bailey
• Aceves
• Matsuzaka
• Melancon
• Doubront
• Miller
• Oswalt/Floyd (?)

Oh, and expecting Bailey, Beckett, and Lester to be studs in perfect health.

[smastroyin]

It would also be unfair of me to omit that part of what is informing my opinion is that I don't have a lot of faith in Oswalt being through his injury/effectiveness issues. I have read some articles and while the info is great we still don't really know enough, and just for the record we heard and read a lot of the same things about John Smoltz, Wade Miller, Ramon Martinez, et al.