248 replies to this topic

[greek_gawd_of_walks]

For the lineup, LF and RF are legitimate concerns for me. Also will Youk stay healthy? They need his bat and on-base tendencies in the lineup.

The starting pitching begins with Lester and Beckett. They need to pitch like they're capable, plain and simple. [I am an Idiot] needs to stay healthy and throw 180-190 innings. And then you get to the four-five spots which will probably include Bard/ Aceves (who knows how he'll respond; I've heard theories in support of him being a success/failure as a starter, but no one will know until it actually happens) and a bumper crop retreads.

We'll also need to see what the revamped bull pen does: Does Melancon's second half success last year/ development of a cutter translate going to the American League? Can Bailey throw more than 40+ innings? Can Aceves keep working his BABIP black magic? Does Juggalo give anything of substantial value?

The Sox have a number of question marks to be anxious about, and they're evenly sprinkled throughout the lineup, starting pitching, and relief pitching. I guess every team has these uncertainties, but the Sox seem to have more than they usually do. If they trade Scutaro and sign Oswalt, they create a hole at short, and plug a hole in the rotation (but it's not a certainty with Oswalt's back injury history). I think that move would make sense, but it's not without considerable risk.

Edited by greek_gawd_of_walks, 21 January 2012 - 04:17 PM.

[E5 Yaz]

Your argument is irrelevant to the point.
He spoke quite often in years past using the verbal talisman "payroll flexibility" to ward off suggestions that other things should be done.
The fact that he had to get approval to sign Crawford to a "payroll flexibility" evaporating contract doesn't change the fact that he wanted to do it, directly contradicting this principle that he'd called forth so many times.

The Red Sox have all the "payroll flexibility" in the world. There is no hard ceiling in play here. Management is saying they don't want to pay more. They're not signing or trading for more expensive pieces this offseason because of anything other than a management decision.

You seem intent on pinning that on Epstein's past moves. I find that narrowminded

[rembrat]

The deal is back on.

"SBerthiaumeESPN: #RedSox #Rockies deal from @TroyRenck: RT/Rockies finishing up deal for Marco Scutaro. A pitcher would go back to Boston. Deal revived today"

http://twitter.com/S...853312957198336

Edited by rembrat, 21 January 2012 - 05:40 PM.

[Foulkey Reese]

Any ideas on who the pitcher could be?

[E5 Yaz]

Any ideas on who the pitcher could be?

According to Denver Post

http://www.baseball-...campaign=Linker

[Yaz4Ever]

Looking at Clayton Mortensen's stats is a bit underwhelming unless I'm missing something. I'm guessing this is strictly a salary dump. In effect, we'd be trading Scutaro for Oswalt or possibly Floyd (in which case we'd have to give up prospects as well).

[Rudy Pemberton]

Wow, those are awful peripherals. Why do the Sox need another mediocre reliever? So puzzling, they pick up Scutaro's option, and then trade him for a bag of shit? And the SS is going to be, who? Aviles? The guy they've been teaching to play RF? Ugh, hope this isn't true.

[rembrat]

Should we be frightened that in all 3 of Ben's trades he has turned position players into relief pitchers? Yeck.

Hopefully this means Floyd or Oswalt are next.

[Savin Hillbilly]

You've got to be kidding me.

[Corsi]

The Red Sox are looking to move money to make a move for another pitcher. Scutaro wold start at 2B for Rockies

https://twitter.com/#!/TroyRenck/status/160853311975723009

[czar]

Hopefully this means Floyd or Oswalt are next.

If this is REALLY the only way the Sox can snag one of those, then I'm all for driving Marco to the airport.

The dropoff from Scutaro to Aviles/Punto is noticeable, but certainly not earth-shattering. The upside of someone like Oswalt/Floyd over Aceves/Doubront/Cook/Padilla/etc. is (or at least the potential is there).

[Buzzkill Pauley]

-$6M

This.

[Corsi]

Don't recall the last time the Sox had to make a pure salary dump. Feels weird.

[Foulkey Reese]

If this is REALLY the only way the Sox can snag one of those, then I'm all for driving Marco to the airport. The dropoff from Scutaro to Aviles/Punto is noticeable, but certainly not earth-shattering. The upside of someone like Oswalt/Floyd over Aceves/Doubront/Cook/Padilla/etc. is (or at least the potential is there).

I agree with this. The rotation as it is now just wasn't going to get it done. Believe it or not Punto actually had a higher OBP than Scutaro last season.

It's worth it if they upgrade the rotation.

[SoxScout]

Should we be frightened that in all 3 of Ben's trades he has turned position players into relief pitchers? Yeck.

Hopefully this means Floyd or Oswalt are next.

Well, a top CP and what we hope is a top setup man for position players that are nothing special. I have no problem at all with those deal. Mortensen isn't even part of this deal to me, it's what comes next, and hopefully it's one of those two pitchers.

[Corsi]

Cafardo:

Scutaro to rockies "likely" according to red sox source.

Aviles and punto would platoon at ss.

[bosockboy]

I imagine the companion pitching deal is already lined up....should happen quickly I would think.

[Trlicek's Whip]

As stated elsewhere, it's not what they get back, it's unloading Scutaro money to pay for a starter. Hopefully. And since everyone on earth knows the Sox are in need of a decent starter, and look to be working with a salary ceiling, they have no leverage in a deal.

Edited by Trlicek's Whip, 21 January 2012 - 06:00 PM.

[Corsi]

Source: Scutaro to #rockies for upper level pitcher 'likely,' though not yet done

https://twitter.com/#!/alexspeier/status/160859277135839233

[Rudy Pemberton]

SS is an overrated position anyways, anyone can play it, right?

Will be funny when Sox are desperate for a SS in May.

If Punto and Aviles platoon at SS, who backs up 3B? and no more Aviles in RF?

The Melancon deal seems pointless now.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 21 January 2012 - 06:03 PM.

[maufman]

They cleared $1.5mm by picking up Scutaro's option and dealing him, rather than declining the option. The organizational player coming this way in the deal is gravy.

(null)

[Savin Hillbilly]

I agree with this. The rotation as it is now just wasn't going to get it done. Believe it or not Punto actually had a higher OBP than Scutaro last season. It's worth it if they upgrade the rotation.

I'm one of Punto's defenders around here, but I feel pretty sure 2011 will be the last time Punto has a higher OBP than Scutaro.

I understand that the deal helps us on the salary front, but I still have trouble believing Scutaro couldn't fetch more than a complete, fungible stiff like Mortensen. Maybe there's a low-minors throw-in with upside, or something.

[rembrat]

Oh, dont get me wrong, I see this as pure salary dump. I'm just noting since relievers are so volatile trading position players for them isn't really smart.

[bosockboy]

If the Sox weren't so broke Scutaro for Seth Smith would have been a great trade. Bring on Oswalt. Going to need another bench piece also.

[Corsi]

Confirming Troy Renck's report that the Boston Red Sox have traded Marco Scutaro to the Colorado Rockies for Claytong Mortensen...no cash

https://twitter.com/#!/JimBowdenESPNxm/status/160860166659637249

[mikeford]

SS is an overrated position anyways, anyone can play it, right?

Will be funny when Sox are desperate for a SS in May.

If they make this deal they will be desperate for a SS in January.

[E5 Yaz]

I'd rather the other shoe be a deal for Floyd. Rather have him than one year of Oswalt

[tonyarmasjr]

The Sox have a number of question marks to be anxious about, and they're evenly sprinkled throughout the lineup, starting pitching, and relief pitching. I guess every team has these uncertainties, but the Sox seem to have more than they usually do. If they trade Scutaro and sign Oswalt, they create a hole at short, and plug a hole in the rotation (but it's not a certainty with Oswalt's back injury history). I think that move would make sense, but it's not without considerable risk.

But the question was: what holes do they have? I'm pretty sure we all have concerns about some of the different question marks, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Sox are deficient in any of those areas. And like you say, every team has its uncertainties. There's most likely a fairly close probability (and I'm sure th FO has it's own ideas) between Bard succeeding and failing, or a Sweeney/McDonald/Kalish platoon working out and not, etc. No, we don't know how things will work out in a lot of areas, but V-Mart could blow his knee out doing off-season conditioning or Jenks could develop an embolism, too. It's impossible to eliminate all the certainty, especially when you factor in things like losing two starting pitchers to Tommy John last year and your LFer having unexpected surgery in January.

[Sprowl]

Mortensen is a sinker-slider-changeup pitcher with a low swinging strike%, low K/BB, and low velocity on the fastball (~87 mph). Last year he was lucky on BABIP (.257), so he's even worse than his results.

This looks awful. The Red Sox now have holes at SS, RF, LF and on the bench. They have lost their best relievers in Papelbon and Bard, replacing them with inferior substitutes in Bailey and Melancon.

The team must have confidence that Middlebrooks and Iglesias can perform in the event of an infield injury. That's more confidence than I have.

[bombdiggz]

I desperately hope this means Floyd. The Sox need an SP that can be counted on for a good number of innings. Floyd meets that need, an aging, recently injured Oswalt making the transition to the AL East does not.

[Savin Hillbilly]

If Punto and Aviles platoon at SS, who backs up 3B?

Whoever's not playing SS that day. What difference does the platoon make in that regard?

and no more Aviles in RF?

They're going to need another position player now, and given the OF situation, it's extremely likely to be an outfielder.

The Melancon deal seems pointless now.

Why?

[E5 Yaz]

Happy for the arrival of my friend Marco Scutaro to @Rockies ¡Welcome bro!

http://twitter.com/#...859385269194752

edes:

Sox believe they can get by w/Punto/Aviles at short until Iglesias is ready

Edited by E5 Yaz, 21 January 2012 - 06:12 PM.

[bosockboy]

Big picture....if Padilla can stick as the 5th starter, this dramatically helps the pen. Keeping Bard and Aceves in the pen makes it pretty damn deep.

Padilla would just need to get us by until Dice-K returns.

Edited by bosockboy, 21 January 2012 - 06:14 PM.

[E5 Yaz]

Big picture....if Padilla can stick as the 5th starter, this dramatically helps the pen.

What about Mortensen makes you say THAT

[rembrat]

"keithlaw: Trading away all your shortstops is the new market inefficiency. I can't believe no one thought of it sooner."

http://twitter.com/k...861824458309633

Laughing helps.

[Rudy Pemberton]

They cleared $1.5mm by picking up Scutaro's option and dealing him, rather than declining the option. The organizational player coming this way in the deal is gravy.

(null)

Ah- this is an excellent point.

[PedroKsBambino]

The Red Sox have all the "payroll flexibility" in the world. There is no hard ceiling in play here. Management is saying they don't want to pay more. They're not signing or trading for more expensive pieces this offseason because of anything other than a management decision.

You seem intent on pinning that on Epstein's past moves. I find that narrowminded

It's undeniable, however, that Theo's moves put the team in the current budgetary position. What is interesting is the question "were those past moves made with knowledge of the future budget or not?"

If Theo's moves were made knowing that a crunch would come, that certainly makes him look not only bad as a GM in recent years, but he looks pretty weak for bailing when he did. If, however, we instead guess that management told him in the past that money would be there and then said last year mid-year that "the budget will be different in the future" then his departure feels quite reasonable to me, and those past moves look pretty reasonable too.

Unless we can discern if the budget/willingness to spend has been changed relative to Theo's expectations, though, it's hard to allocate responsibility or judge with a lot of accuracy seems to me

[bosockboy]

What about Mortensen makes you say THAT

Sorry....ambiguous. Signing another starter along with Padilla as 5th starter.

[knucklecup]

"#3 potential"

That's written in a fangraphs article from like a year ago but still.

Who is he?

I have faith in Aviles at short as well.

[E5 Yaz]

Unless we can discern if the budget/willingness to spend has been changed relative to Theo's expectations, though, it's hard to allocate responsibility or judge with a lot of accuracy seems to me

I agree. It's also hard to judge the autonomy Theo had in making the Lackey/Crawford deals. If he had to have it approved by ownership, than that responsibility isn't solely his

[dynomite]

This looks awful. The Red Sox now have holes at SS, RF, LF and on the bench. They have lost their best relievers in Papelbon and Bard, replacing them with inferior substitutes in Bailey and Melancon.

The team must have confidence that Middlebrooks and Iglesias can perform in the event of an infield injury. That's more confidence than I have.

And let's not forget that our starting 3B missed 60 games in 2010 and another 40 games in 2011.

So, as you say, either we're comfortable with Middlebrooks, we're comfortable with Iglesias, or we're comfortable with Punto AND Aviles as the left side of our infield for long stretch of time.

[rembrat]

And let's not forget that our starting 3B missed 60 games in 2010 and another 40 games in 2011.

So, as you say, either we're comfortable with Middlebrooks, we're comfortable with Iglesias, or we're comfortable with Punto AND Aviles as the left side of our infield for long stretch of time.

Is your body ready for Nick Punto getting 500PA? Because we are certainly headed there.

[Rudy Pemberton]

How many teams have a platoon at SS?

Re: why I think the Melancon trade now seems pointless; they traded away depth at 3b / ss for a reliever. Assuming they use the freed up payroll to sign a starter (although maybe its just paying out arb awards), and assuming Bard makes the rotation.


Bailey
Melancon
Aceves
Morales
Doubront
Albers
Bowden
Atchison
Tazawa
Jenks

then you've got Padilla, etc. Seems like a lot of pitchers to sort out; although I guess they had to make the Melancon move in case they couldn't land Bailey. Although, they could have passed on Bailey, signed Madson and then dealt Scutaro. Ah well.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Edes: Sox believe they can get by w/Punto/Aviles at short until Iglesias is ready

In other words, they're going to prepare the ground for Iglesias by lowering our expectations. Kind of reminds me of the Harkonnen strategy in Dune, where the Baron put the completely psychotic nephew in charge of the planet so that the people would welcome the only somewhat psychotic nephew as a savior.

[PedroKsBambino]

I agree. It's also hard to judge the autonomy Theo had in making the Lackey/Crawford deals. If he had to have it approved by ownership, than that responsibility isn't solely his

Agreed. That is especially true as to Lackey, where there is not a reason to think Theo was really the primary advocate.

[pokey_reese]

Mortensen sure looks to be lousy on paper. Average FB velocity of 87 mph last year, negative values on both his fastball and change-up for both the season and his career according to Fangraphs. Almost as many walks as Ks, high HR/FB rate. This guy should never sniff the ML roster, which feels like a relief to me.

[RedOctober3829]

This better not be their move to get a starter as opposed to getting Floyd or Oswalt.

The sox consider clay mortenson a starter.

https://twitter.com/#!/nickcafardo/status/160866568279035905

[Kramerica Industries]

This better not be their move to get a starter as opposed to getting Floyd or Oswalt.


https://twitter.com/#!/nickcafardo/status/160866568279035905

It makes you wish for an Andrew Miller start.

[BucketOBalls]

Mortensen is the Rockies revenge for Manny Delcarmen.

[Foulkey Reese]

Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnick54s
The Scutaro trade frees up some $$ for #RedSox to make an "aggressive bid'' for Roy Oswalt, said a baseball source

https://twitter.com/#!/jcrasnick

Edited by Foulkey Reese, 21 January 2012 - 06:38 PM.