41 replies to this topic

[Sampo Gida]

With the Red Sox offering Papi 12.65 million and Papi looking for 16.5 million, some foIks believe even the Red Sox offer is a vast overpay for a DH.

Big Papi is coming off a 4.2 WAR season following a 2.6 WAR in 2010 (FG numbers). Over these past 2 years, Big Papi is said to be worth (by FG) 29.2 million over 2 years, or 14.5 million per year, and has been paid 25.5 million, or 12.75 million per year. Over his 9 year career with the Red Sox Big Papi has been paid 84 million and per Fan Graphs was worth about 125 million.

The 2011 DH's with at least 6 yrs service time who had 300 or more AB and their FG WAR is listed below. I excluded Young and Posada who were signed several years ago to play other positions and only became DH after the fact when they lost their jobs to other players.

Papi -4.2 WAR, 1 yr 12.5 (12.5 AAV)

Victor Martinez-2.9 WAR, 4 yr 50 (12.5 AAV)
Johnny Damon-1.5 WAR, 1 yr 5.25 (5.25 AAV)
Edwin Encarn...1.5 WAR, 2 yr 6 (3 AAV)
Travis Hafner-1.3 WAR, 6 yr, 66.1 (11 AAV)
Bobby Abreu-0.4 WAR, 3 yr 27 (9 AAV)
Hideki Matsui-0.3 WAR, 1 yr, 4.25 (4.25 AAV)
Vlad Guerrero-0.0 WAR1 yr 8 (8 AAV)
Adam Dunn-(-2.9) WAR, 4 yr, 56 (14 AAV)

Some of these players played a bit in the field but all were negative UZR in the limited playing time they got.

So that's the market. In total, other teams spent 67 million for the 7 WAR these players delivered in 2011. In other words, they spent almost 10 million per WAR on DH.

Big Papi was a bargain in comparison. The only player comparable to Big Papi was V-Mart, and he got 4 million per WAR. However, that was a 4 year deal and multi-year deals are discounted for injuries over the length of the deal and the expected decline at the back end, whereas Papi will be getting only a 1 year deal.

Hafner is worth looking at as well. He turned a 6 WAR season in 2006 into a 6 yr deal worth 66 million. However, this was not a FA deal as he only had 4 years service time. In the 5 years since signing his contract, he has delivered only 6.3 WAR and been paid 53 million, over 8 million per WAR. He will get 13 million in 2012. FWIW, over that same period, Big Papi delivered 15.3 WAR and got paid 64.7 million, or slightly more than 4 million per WAR.

Another guy worth looking at his Vlad Guerrero. He came off a 1.7 WAR season with Texas and turned it into a 1 yr deal for 8 million with the Orioles. Thats 4.7 million per WAR. If Papi got the same after his 4.2 WAR season, thats almost 20 million. Heck, even if you took his 2 year average for WAR he would be worth almost 16 million.

So despite the rumblings of some that nobody pays much for DH on the market, the fact is there are not many players who have delivered as much as Papi at DH on the market. The players who have been on the market got vastly overpaid relative to what they produced, which was not much .

So what is Big Papi worth? It would seem that the Red Sox offer is based on a hedge that papi will revert to his 2010 form. From Papis viewpoint, he may feel he can duplicate his 2011 season, or that he has been underpaid during his peak years so deserves a bit of an overpay in his twilight years anyways.

The consensus seems to be that the Red Sox and Papi will settle somewhere in between and avoid arbitration, but who wins if it does go to arbitration?.

Arbitrators look at conventional stats like HR, RBI and BA, and salary of comparable players. Papi is ranked 6th among all AL hitters in both HR and RBI over the last 3 years. By not fielding he loses value. Fielding made up about 14.2% of all positive and negative runs in 2009 according to FanGraphs WAR. ( http://www.fangraphs...eighted-in-war/ )
So given there are not many DH in Papis class to compare, they could look at a top hitting FA first baseman and knock off 15% of what he makes.

Edited by Sampo Gida, 18 January 2012 - 01:01 AM.

[walkoffblast]

There have only been two DHs signed at over 14 mil aav cap hit (Hafner 14.25 mil and Thome at a little less than that). Now Ortiz is looking reset that bar significantly, albeit only on a one year deal. I have heard conflicting things about how much position factors in but if it does it seems like Ortiz may have over played his hand. Then again arbiters in recent years seem to take issue with low team bids even if they are probably closer to the true value. The offers seem to be about negotiation more than setting up a case. What will be interesting is if they settle in the middle on a one year deal or try and get the aav a little lower by going to two.

[plucy]

How many DH's have gone to arbitration? Also how many 36 year old players have gone to arbitration? Where is the comp? Ortiz could point to his performance relative to the league in '11 and the history of performance by 36+ yo DH's. Edgar was putting up 5.4 fWAR in his age 36 and 37 years, Frank Thomas put up 4.3 fWAR at age 35 as a primary DH, then fell to 2.6 as a 1B/DH the next year, Thome had a 4.6 at age 36 and produced a 3.3 at age 37. But that was the top end and they didn't go get an arb award for Ortiz to compare.

[Sampo Gida]

One of the arguments I saw on the mainboard against Papi getting much of a raise based on his 2011 performance is that he signed his extension after a 5.2 WAR season in 2005, and since that capped out at 13 million, why should he make more than this after a 4.2 WAR season. The answer to that argument is that Papi was not a FA and there was no competitive bidding process. If Papi was a FA after 2005, he would have obtained a much bigger contract. What Papi is worth can be determined only by comparing him to players who signed a FA contract.

walkoffblast, on 18 January 2012 - 02:23 PM, said:

There have only been two DHs signed at over 14 mil aav cap hit (Hafner 14.25 mil and Thome at a little less than that). Now Ortiz is looking reset that bar significantly, albeit only on a one year deal. I have heard conflicting things about how much position factors in but if it does it seems like Ortiz may have over played his hand. Then again arbiters in recent years seem to take issue with low team bids even if they are probably closer to the true value. The offers seem to be about negotiation more than setting up a case. What will be interesting is if they settle in the middle on a one year deal or try and get the aav a little lower by going to two.

Position is unlikely to be the only criteria. Although looking at only DH would be preferable, the next position beside DH in the defensive spectrum is 1B (least important defensive position and a position where players offensive contribution is most important). So even though there are few DH in Papis class to compare, due in part to the fact that the DH is used only in 1 league and there are few elite DH hitters, they could look at contracts issued to 1Bman while taking into account his lack of a defensive contribution.

Here are some other criteria

http://bizofbaseball...ArbCriteria.htm

Quote

(a) The criteria will be the quality of the Player’s contribution to his Club during the past season (including but not limited to his overall performance, special qualities of leadership and public appeal),

the length and consistency of his career contribution,

the record of the Player’s past compensation,

comparative baseball salaries (see paragraph (13) below for confidential salary data),

the existence of any physical or mental defects on the part of the Player,

and the recent performance record of the Club including but not limited to its League standing and attendance as an indication of public acceptance (subject to the exclusion stated insubparagraph

[TOleary25]

What if the Sox offered a two year, $26 mil deal with a player option for about $3 mil? Ortiz gets the security of a two year deal in which he gets paid $13 mil a year and will almost surely decline the option year if he has any talent left. The Sox benefit from this by reducing Papi's AAV to $9.67 mil to provide more flexibility and possibly being able to offer a better deal to Oswalt/Jackson.

There are obviously a couple of factors that go against this but it may be the best solution to create flexibility. I'm guessing the Sox don't want to commit more than a year to Papi with Youk possibly needing to take over DH next year. Another possibility that may prevent the Sox from doing this is that if Ortiz is completely useless by the third year he could accept the option and then he would have a $9.67 mil cap hit for that year. Clearly the two sides aren't on the same page, but it might be best for eachother to come to some type of agreement before arb.

[Sampo Gida]

TOleary25, on 27 January 2012 - 07:49 AM, said:

What if the Sox offered a two year, $26 mil deal with a player option for about $3 mil? Ortiz gets the security of a two year deal in which he gets paid $13 mil a year and will almost surely decline the option year if he has any talent left. The Sox benefit from this by reducing Papi's AAV to $9.67 mil to provide more flexibility and possibly being able to offer a better deal to Oswalt/Jackson.

There are obviously a couple of factors that go against this but it may be the best solution to create flexibility. I'm guessing the Sox don't want to commit more than a year to Papi with Youk possibly needing to take over DH next year. Another possibility that may prevent the Sox from doing this is that if Ortiz is completely useless by the third year he could accept the option and then he would have a $9.67 mil cap hit for that year. Clearly the two sides aren't on the same page, but it might be best for eachother to come to some type of agreement before arb.

If Papi does not accept the player option, I believe the numbers for 2012 and 2013 get revised, and the Red Sox are on the hook for the tax anyways in 2012, and the tax rate gets reset if needed as well. Maybe I am wrong, but thats how I understand it.

Also, since the revenue sharing rebate starts in 2013, next year will be an even more critical year to stay under the CBT threshold, and the Red Sox are less likely to want to pay Papi 13 million to DH. Also, with the Yankees also having a big incentive to get under the CBT threshold, the threat of Papi signing with the Yankees is even more diminished, compounded by their need to get Jeter and A-Rod DH AB's, so losing Papi is not as big a deal (Red Sox could pick up Youks option and move him to DH).

It's looking more and more like this is going to be settled by an arbitrator. If so, the money is not guranteed.

Quote

If the player is cut within 16 days before the season begins, he is entitled only to 30 days’ termination pay. If the player is cut during spring training but after the 16th day before the season begins, he is entitled only to 45 days’ termination pay.

http://jameslincolnr...on-works-a45599

Seems Papi would have more of an incentive to work out a deal. If not and Papi wins his case, or even if he does not, he better not blow out a knee or anything like that, as he could end up with as little as 2-4 million.

[RochesterSamHorn]

I was sorry to see the Red Sox go to arbitration with Ortiz this year, knowing they'd be on the hook for the highest paid DH in the league. This, is a position where they could have saved a significant amount of money to sign a SP or SS. Now I'm hoping that they won't stretch out an offer for 2 yrs. as there will be better and cheaper options next year - Victor Martinez (subsidized by Detroit in a salary dump), Andre Eithier if he remains a free agent, or even someone from within (Kevin Youkilis?).

Edited by RochesterSamHorn, 31 January 2012 - 10:48 PM.

[Sampo Gida]

RochesterSamHorn, on 31 January 2012 - 10:43 PM, said:

I was sorry to see the Red Sox go to arbitration with Ortiz this year, knowing they'd be on the hook for the highest paid DH in the league. This, is a position where they could have saved a significant amount of money to sign a SP or SS. Now I'm hoping that they won't stretch out an offer for 2 yrs. as there will be better and cheaper options next year - Victor Martinez (subsidized by Detroit in a salary dump), Andre Eithier if he remains a free agent, or even someone from within (Kevin Youkilis?).

If they sign Andre Eithier as a FA for DH he would make as much if not more than Papi and he has never had a season as good as Papi had in 2011.

V-Mart would be coming off a serious knee injury, and Youkillis will cost 13 million. Also, even though the Indians reimburse us for a lot of V-Marts salary , I think his AAV as counted towards the CBT would still be 12.5 million (not sure about that though)

[RochesterSamHorn]

Sampo Gida, on 31 January 2012 - 11:10 PM, said:

If they sign Andre Eithier as a FA for DH he would make as much if not more than Papi and he has never had a season as good as Papi had in 2011.

V-Mart would be coming off a serious knee injury, and Youkillis will cost 13 million. Also, even though the Indians reimburse us for a lot of V-Marts salary , I think his AAV as counted towards the CBT would still be 12.5 million (not sure about that though)

Eithier, would have to weigh his options. If L.A. foresees him as their R.F. for the future and increases his contract, then of course he re-signs, otherwise, he may consider playing for a few million less to play alongside Pedrioa and better W.S. opportunities.
Youkilis, if extended, could play a similar role as a predominately DH and bench infielder for less money. This is where his future value is.
V-Mart's knee would be a factor, without saying. But if o.k., then he would be one sweet switch-hitting DH. - And it's the Tigers that would supplement his salary.

[MikeM]

RochesterSamHorn, on 31 January 2012 - 10:43 PM, said:

I was sorry to see the Red Sox go to arbitration with Ortiz this year, knowing they'd be on the hook for the highest paid DH in the league. This, is a position where they could have saved a significant amount of money to sign a SP or SS. Now I'm hoping that they won't stretch out an offer for 2 yrs. as there will be better and cheaper options next year - Victor Martinez (subsidized by Detroit in a salary dump), Andre Eithier if he remains a free agent, or even someone from within (Kevin Youkilis?).

As i've pointed out before, one really can't fault them for that imo, as hindsight is of course 20/20. Is there anybody out there on this board who was pushing a "don't offer Ortiz aby and make a play for those picks" concept, prior to the actual decision/offer going on record? Anybody? Ok then.........

That said, the grander sceme reality of this offseason (aka: the Sox are not *just* a wee bit over-budget atm from where they want to be going forward. hence the current juggling of priorities) is still getting lost in the optimistic rationalizations being spun around every corner this winter, imo. So had we not offered Ortiz arby, and in essence "freed" up that money, i just don't see it boiling down to a simple/default matter of having Ortiz's X amount of dollars to completely spend elsewhere.

[Sampo Gida]

There are 2 possible reasons why the Red Sox offered Papi arb, neither is mutually exclusive.

1. They did not think he would accept and wanted the picks.

and/or

2. They were willing to pay him whatever for a 1 yr deal.

Now if it is 1, this may explain why the Red Sox are going to an arb hearing for the first time since I believe 2002 . Since Papi is prone to slow starts, they could cut him and be on the hook only for 4-6 weeeks salary depending on when he gets cut (IIRCC, the cut off is 16 days before the regular season for the lower amount) .

Of course, with the Yankees looking for a LHB, I doubt the Red Sox would chose to go this route.

I think it is more likely 2, as being under the luxury tax threshold is not as important in 2012 as in 2013 when revenue sharing rebates kick in, and Papi making 12.5-16.5 million in 2013 would cost perhaps an additional 10 million in luxury tax/loss of revenue sharing rebates.

Arb dates have been set but Ben does not want to say when.

http://www.bostonher...h-ortiz-aceves/

Papi obviously hoping for a more sabermetrically inclined arbitrator who happens to read Fan Graphs (18.8 million in value in 2011). Red Sox hoping for a dinosaur who looks at Vlad Guerrero's 300 BA, 29 HR 115 RBI being turned into a 1 yr deal for 8 million at age 36 as a comp for Papis 309/29/96 2011 and his age 36 contract, even though FG has a huge difference in WAR (1.7 vs 4.2) due to his much higher OBP. FWIW, Prince Fielder will be making 24 million at age 36 when he will be a FT DH.

[D-Piddy nation]

Personally, I think Ortiz is going to win. They came in with a low ball offer in arbitration just 150k over his salary for 2011 and he had good numbers last year as stated. If the Sox had offered something like 13.5 million they would have a much better chance of winning. The decision to come in with such a low figure might cost them around 3 million more then they had to pay. The front office person who came up with that figure if they lose has some answering to do with their supposid financial constrants that they have this off season.

My hopes for the future of the DH role is to leave it primarily for rest days for veteran players and breaking in rookies . This seems to be the new philosophy on the postion by many teams and I think its the best policy for dealing with the 162 schedule grind post steriod era. Giving Youk, Pedroia, Gonzalez 10-15 DH games a year will keep them fresh and rested throughout the year without having to give them days off/losing their bat in the lineup. Its also a good way of incorportating young players into the lineup and having them prove themselves with part time major league at bats (example Lavarnway and/or Middlebrooks next year). It also opens up payroll to spend on a pitcher or some other postion of need since your not spending significant money on the position. One last point is it creates roster flexability having all your postion players on your roster being able to play a position in the field, and with teams holding 12 pitchers on the roster for most of the year that can be an important factor.

[Stanley Steamer]

D-Piddy nation, on 03 February 2012 - 11:47 PM, said:

Personally, I think Ortiz is going to win. They came in with a low ball offer in arbitration just 150k over his salary for 2011 and he had good numbers last year as stated. If the Sox had offered something like 13.5 million they would have a much better chance of winning. The decision to come in with such a low figure might cost them around 3 million more then they had to pay. The front office person who came up with that figure if they lose has some answering to do with their supposid financial constrants that they have this off season.

My hopes for the future of the DH role is to leave it primarily for rest days for veteran players and breaking in rookies . This seems to be the new philosophy on the postion by many teams and I think its the best policy for dealing with the 162 schedule grind post steriod era. Giving Youk, Pedroia, Gonzalez 10-15 DH games a year will keep them fresh and rested throughout the year without having to give them days off/losing their bat in the lineup. Its also a good way of incorportating young players into the lineup and having them prove themselves with part time major league at bats (example Lavarnway and/or Middlebrooks next year). It also opens up payroll to spend on a pitcher or some other postion of need since your not spending significant money on the position. One last point is it creates roster flexability having all your postion players on your roster being able to play a position in the field, and with teams holding 12 pitchers on the roster for most of the year that can be an important factor.

I'm inclined to agree with you about the decision. And though it makes sense to have DH as a position that offers flexibility and cost savings in terms of roster construction, I think we all will look back fondly on the days when we had the league's premier DH. Big Papi is the iconic player from the past 10 years for the Red Sox. Though I always want the good of the team first, I won't be sad if Papi gets paid that "little bit" more. I think he deserves it. Probably the best comparison is that of Jeter last year. Everyone knew he wasn't worth 3x15 million, but he is the Yankees icon, and they ultimately paid him for his past as well as his future. The Sox aren't so magnanimous (or loose) with their budget, but the principle is the same.

[Sampo Gida]

D-Piddy nation, on 03 February 2012 - 11:47 PM, said:

Personally, I think Ortiz is going to win. They came in with a low ball offer in arbitration just 150k over his salary for 2011 and he had good numbers last year as stated. If the Sox had offered something like 13.5 million they would have a much better chance of winning. The decision to come in with such a low figure might cost them around 3 million more then they had to pay. The front office person who came up with that figure if they lose has some answering to do with their supposid financial constrants that they have this off season.

My hopes for the future of the DH role is to leave it primarily for rest days for veteran players and breaking in rookies . This seems to be the new philosophy on the postion by many teams and I think its the best policy for dealing with the 162 schedule grind post steriod era. Giving Youk, Pedroia, Gonzalez 10-15 DH games a year will keep them fresh and rested throughout the year without having to give them days off/losing their bat in the lineup. Its also a good way of incorportating young players into the lineup and having them prove themselves with part time major league at bats (example Lavarnway and/or Middlebrooks next year). It also opens up payroll to spend on a pitcher or some other postion of need since your not spending significant money on the position. One last point is it creates roster flexability having all your postion players on your roster being able to play a position in the field, and with teams holding 12 pitchers on the roster for most of the year that can be an important factor.

I think both parties were a bit extreme. Papis chances would be much greater if he came in at 15 million. I think he should win based on his performance and track record, but you don't know really what the arbitrators will look for, and I am sure there is some variance in arbitrators, so it may depend on if you get one who sees it your way or not. Red Sox seem to be betting that they will discount OBP and look at the conventional stats such as BA/HR/RBI , Papi betting the other way and maybe hoping Fielders/Pujols contracts sway them even if they are not a perfect comp. Dunn is probably the best comp, but he is younger and had a multi-year deal, which might be mutually offsetting, and he will be making 15 million at age 34 as DH, but then there is Vlad who got 8 million at Papis age (already mentioned above).

At the end of the day, neither Papi nor the Red Sox will be crippled by a loss. I usually root for the players, but the owners seem to have a better track record in these cases, IIRCC they win about 60% of cases. Who knows, my money still on Papi, but it's probably a roll of the dice as to who wins.

As for the role of the DH, the Red Sox have won 2 World Series with the best DH in the game getting most of the AB's. I think a DH by committee approach works well when you have older players and a good bench, but not every player makes the transition to DH very well. Look at Adam Dunn and Posada last year, Pat Burrell a couple of years ago, etc. The same is likely true for guys just getting a rest day.

Edited by Sampo Gida, 04 February 2012 - 02:34 AM.

[MikeM]

Sampo Gida, on 03 February 2012 - 08:19 PM, said:

There are 2 possible reasons why the Red Sox offered Papi arb, neither is mutually exclusive.

1. They did not think he would accept and wanted the picks.

and/or

2. They were willing to pay him whatever for a 1 yr deal.

Now if it is 1, this may explain why the Red Sox are going to an arb hearing for the first time since I believe 2002 . Since Papi is prone to slow starts, they could cut him and be on the hook only for 4-6 weeeks salary depending on when he gets cut (IIRCC, the cut off is 16 days before the regular season for the lower amount) .

Of course, with the Yankees looking for a LHB, I doubt the Red Sox would chose to go this route.

I think it is more likely 2, as being under the luxury tax threshold is not as important in 2012 as in 2013 when revenue sharing rebates kick in, and Papi making 12.5-16.5 million in 2013 would cost perhaps an additional 10 million in luxury tax/loss of revenue sharing rebates.

If it was indeed 2, wouldn't the default logic supporting that suggest we *wouldn't* see this go to the arbitrator?

I'll take option #1, as beyond the mountain of media BS this winter, all signs for me are pointing to us not being in a finacial position to take a stance like that to begin with. In fact, i'll even go as far as to speculate that 2/$18m contract never gets extended if we truely wanted him back, and in essence was only made to "help" push him in that other direction.

The market as a competetive whole took a complete nosedive this winter, Ortiz ended up being all "my life's mission is to sign a multi-year deal" bark and no bite, shit happens, and here we are. With the fans ultimately winning there in the short term, as the only real difference i see playing out had he not accepted is we probably hold on to Scutaro. So for me and what potential i see us having in 2012, Ortiz > Scutaro, and it's not even close imo.

I think Papi wins his case.

[Franklin Fanatic]

Sampo Gida, on 03 February 2012 - 08:19 PM, said:

There are 2 possible reasons why the Red Sox offered Papi arb, neither is mutually exclusive.

1. They did not think he would accept and wanted the picks.

and/or

2. They were willing to pay him whatever for a 1 yr deal.

Now if it is 1, this may explain why the Red Sox are going to an arb hearing for the first time since I believe 2002 . Since Papi is prone to slow starts, they could cut him and be on the hook only for 4-6 weeeks salary depending on when he gets cut (IIRCC, the cut off is 16 days before the regular season for the lower amount) .

Of course, with the Yankees looking for a LHB, I doubt the Red Sox would chose to go this route.

I think it is more likely 2, as being under the luxury tax threshold is not as important in 2012 as in 2013 when revenue sharing rebates kick in, and Papi making 12.5-16.5 million in 2013 would cost perhaps an additional 10 million in luxury tax/loss of revenue sharing rebates.

Arb dates have been set but Ben does not want to say when.

http://www.bostonher...h-ortiz-aceves/

Papi obviously hoping for a more sabermetrically inclined arbitrator who happens to read Fan Graphs (18.8 million in value in 2011). Red Sox hoping for a dinosaur who looks at Vlad Guerrero's 300 BA, 29 HR 115 RBI being turned into a 1 yr deal for 8 million at age 36 as a comp for Papis 309/29/96 2011 and his age 36 contract, even though FG has a huge difference in WAR (1.7 vs 4.2) due to his much higher OBP. FWIW, Prince Fielder will be making 24 million at age 36 when he will be a FT DH.

I agree - it's point #2. I don't see Ortiz with the Sox in 2013, pay him $14mm - $16mm in 2012 and move on next year.

[Trotsky]

I just can't believe that there are actually members on the Main Board that think it might be a good idea to release him...
Yes, he's probably a little overpaid relative to other DH's, but even if he has a down year and hits .875 (honestly can't see him slipping below that) he's still a very solid threat in the middle of a lineup and someone who you wouldn't want to face in a Yankees or Rays or Bluejays lineup.
IMO they should have offered 14 and I could see the arb decision taking that spot. Sox offer is lowballing. I still think this whole mess is on Theo and his string of shitty contracts.

[Towney007]

They went to arbitration because they don't want him on anything more than a one year deal.

They're willing to overpay for one year on a flier, but not on a two year deal where there's a strong likelihood they pay for a year of decline.

They kept him as opposed to Scutaro because he's a more productive bat in the lineup.

[MikeM]

Trotsky, on 04 February 2012 - 12:18 PM, said:

I just can't believe that there are actually members on the Main Board that think it might be a good idea to release him...

Maybe i missed it in my skimming today, but i don't recall seeing anybody specifically stating that. Releasing Ortiz under the belief that money will be spent on the team elsewhere isn't quite the same as releasing him solely to save a few more dollars in 2012.

Personally, i admit that i find the technical fact that we could mostly rectify the initial "mistake" of offering arby as an interesting angle there. Another time, and especially another player, and i believe it would be under serious ownership consideration. Not right now though, and you definitly can't do that to David Ortiz of all people.

Even with that cold blooded and nagging logic that should exist in the back of everybody's head atm, that is rightfully whispering "a year from now, you are most likely going to regret giving those atbats away that otherwise would/could of went to to development of Lavarnway and co".

Edited by MikeM, 04 February 2012 - 03:27 PM.

[Sampo Gida]

On the mainboard someone linked to an article saying Konerko was the best comp. Konerko signed a 3 year deal at the end of 2010 for his age 35-37 season for 37.5 million, or 12.5 million per year. Konerko is a 1Bman who will DH at the end of his deal, but then so is Prince Fielder. Aside from Konerko's career year in 2010, he has not been in Papis class as a hitter over his career (OPS+ 121 with the White Sox, Papi 145 OPS+ w/Red Sox)

But Konerko, like Fielder, is on a multi-year deal, not a 1 yr deal. Multi-year deals are always discounted against the risk of injury and decline, and players gladly accept the discount for the security. That would need to be considered by the arbitrators. How they would adjust Konerkos 3 yr guaranteed deal to Papis non-guaranteed 1 yr deal, I don't know. Papi might very well accept the same deal as Konerko if offered since he has been pining for a multi-year deal the past couple of years .

Also, as mentioned above, arbitrators also consider a teams attendance, and Red Sox clearly have an edge over the White Sox. Not sure how much weighting that gets though.

Speaking of 1Bman as comps, Ryan Howard has a 5 yr 125 million deal that begins in 2012 for his age 32-36 season. He will make 25 million at age 36

Edited by Sampo Gida, 04 February 2012 - 07:36 PM.

[keyalyn]

Sampo Gida, on 04 February 2012 - 07:35 PM, said:

On the mainboard someone linked to an article saying Konerko was the best comp. Konerko signed a 3 year deal at the end of 2010 for his age 35-37 season for 37.5 million, or 12.5 million per year. Konerko is a 1Bman who will DH at the end of his deal, but then so is Prince Fielder. Aside from Konerko's career year in 2010, he has not been in Papis class as a hitter over his career (OPS+ 121 with the White Sox, Papi 145 OPS+ w/Red Sox)

But Konerko, like Fielder, is on a multi-year deal, not a 1 yr deal. Multi-year deals are always discounted against the risk of injury and decline, and players gladly accept the discount for the security. That would need to be considered by the arbitrators. How they would adjust Konerkos 3 yr guaranteed deal to Papis non-guaranteed 1 yr deal, I don't know. Papi might very well accept the same deal as Konerko if offered since he has been pining for a multi-year deal the past couple of years .

Career-wise, yeah, but Ortiz over the last 3 seasons and Konerko in the 3 seasons prior to his deal were very similar hitters (130OPS+ v 127OPS+). The kicker is definietely the 1-year vs 3-year deal, but some of that is negated by Konerko being a 1B and being over a year younger than Ortiz at the time their contracts were up. Konerko also hit 10 more HR and had 15 more RBI than Ortiz did last season, two of the statistics the arbitration expert from that article listed as among the most important looked at.

They could easily look at Konerko, who plays a position, was younger, had significantly more HR and RBI than Ortiz the year before his new contract, and was very comparable to Ortiz the 3 years before, and then look at Ortiz who is being offered more money next season than Konerko is getting and side with Boston. Yes, he was given a three year deal, but in the mind of an arbitrator (according to the expert on the matter) Konerko 2011 was a much better player than Ortiz 2012.

[walkoffblast]

Sampo Gida, on 04 February 2012 - 07:35 PM, said:

But Konerko, like Fielder, is on a multi-year deal, not a 1 yr deal. Multi-year deals are always discounted against the risk of injury and decline, and players gladly accept the discount for the security. That would need to be considered by the arbitrators. How they would adjust Konerkos 3 yr guaranteed deal to Papis non-guaranteed 1 yr deal, I don't know. Papi might very well accept the same deal as Konerko if offered since he has been pining for a multi-year deal the past couple of years .

While it sounds reasonable to consider the difference between a 1 year deal and a multi-year deal I am not sure that is one of the criteria considered. It isn't like Ortiz has to give up the potential to earn in the years beyond a one year deal. The further down the wormhole you go, the more convoluted everything gets. Do we factor in what Ortiz would have made when having to subtract out the value of a lost pick vs what he gains by not having to deal with that likely next season? The more aspects that you choose to include the more murky the waters gets. I assume this is why they seem to prefer to keep the process fairly straightforward with a few opportunities for some wiggle room in an exceptional case. I think the straightforward stuff favors the Sox but I understand the concern that somehow Ortiz convinces them that he is an exceptional case. I'd say the real problem is that the arbitration system just isn't meant for older players. It is heavily based on giving raises and historical performance measures. The problem lies in that historically the older players end up playing for less than what they got in their early 30s when they get to their later 30s.

[Sampo Gida]

I agree the process is not really geared to players like Papi. It actually favors older players in decline which is why most teams fear offering it to players in decline. Papis 2011 season was not evidence of decline though.

"Most" players in Papis class (elite hitter) have tested Free Agency before they have reached 36, and achieved a market value salary based on peak performance. In that sense, Papi is a bit unique. His highest salary was the result of an extension not subjected to a competitive bidding process. So he heads into arbitration with a salary that was relatively low based on his past contributions, and unlike other players his age, is looking for a significant raise as opposed to trying to minimize a salary cut.

Arbitrators job is to make a fair decision on what Papi is worth. Some do their job better than others. In the ideal world, you would find several DH of Papis class who have concluded 1 yr deals in the past 2-3 years at around the age of 35. This animal does not exist unless you want to consider guys like Damon, Matsui and Vlad in Papis class. So they have to look at other comps that require a bit of an adjustment to be fair. An arbitrary process to be sure, but these are licensed arbitrators who also arbitrate in other fields.

This thread poses 2 questions, one of which is what is Papi worth, which is what the arbitrators are paid to do. To answer the question one must consider how to fairly compare a multi-year deal into a 1 yr deal, since most of Papis comps are on multi-year deals. How the arbitrators actually do their job, and it may differ depending on the arbitrator, we do not know. They are not required and not allowed to explain their decisions

Maybe I am making it too complicated. Arbitrators are also suposed to look at players previous salaries too. In 2010, Papi put up a 2.6 WAR and the Red Sox picked up his option for 2011 paying him 12.5 million. In 2011, Papi produced a 4.2 WAR in 2011, and the Red Sox offered him 12.65 million for 2012. The Red Sox are probably going to have to explain to the arbitrators why a 50% increase in production translates into a 1% raise. Papis request for a 33% raise seems quite reasonable in this context.

Looking at the criteria again:

1.Player's contribution to his Club during the past season
(including but not limited to his overall performance, special
qualities of leadership and public appeal)";

This favors Papi, FG has him valued at 18.8 million for 2011, Papis foundation, etc

2.the length and consistency of his career contribution";

Also favors Papi, 145 OPS+ career with Red Sox, 154 OPS+ in 2011.

3.the record of the Player's past compensation";

Also, favors Papi, made 12.5 million last year, increased production 50%, received 1% raise, asking for 33% raise.

4.comparative baseball salaries";

Murky, few players at DH to compare, probably have to consider 1Bman and adjust for his lack of defense. Toss up.

5.the existence of any physical or mental defects on the part of
the Player; and

Has consistently had 500+ PA per year in 8 of his 9 years as a Red Sox. Favors Papi .

6.the recent performance record of the Club including but not
limited to its League standing and attendance as an indication
of public acceptance.

Team won 90 games, had sold out very seat. Favors Papi.

So 5 of the 6 citeria favor Papi. The issue of player comps is a bit murky since the data set for direct comps is very small, neglible even. But if they look at some of the salaries paid to 1Bman who are not known for their defensive value and whose value is entirely in heir ability to hit, this may favor Papi as well.

[Sampo Gida]

keyalyn, on 05 February 2012 - 08:51 AM, said:

Career-wise, yeah, but Ortiz over the last 3 seasons and Konerko in the 3 seasons prior to his deal were very similar hitters (130OPS+ v 127OPS+). The kicker is definietely the 1-year vs 3-year deal, but some of that is negated by Konerko being a 1B and being over a year younger than Ortiz at the time their contracts were up. Konerko also hit 10 more HR and had 15 more RBI than Ortiz did last season, two of the statistics the arbitration expert from that article listed as among the most important looked at. They could easily look at Konerko, who plays a position, was younger, had significantly more HR and RBI than Ortiz the year before his new contract, and was very comparable to Ortiz the 3 years before, and then look at Ortiz who is being offered more money next season than Konerko is getting and side with Boston. Yes, he was given a three year deal, but in the mind of an arbitrator (according to the expert on the matter) Konerko 2011 was a much better player than Ortiz 2012.

I don't agree Konerkos 2010 was better than Papis 2011 . Arbitrators might be asked to look at the SOS with Papi playing in the AL East, and park. Fenway suppresses HR for LHB'ers. US Cellular is a hitters park for both LHB and RHB'ers. Konerko had a 1137 OPS at home in 2010, and 831 OPS on the road. Papi also had a large split in 2011, but narrower (1024 vs 874, or 150 OPS points vs Konerkos 306 OPS points )

Konerko was making 12 million after a career where he had a 116 OPS+ before his career year in 2010, while Papi was making only 12.5 million despite a career with the Red Sox where he put up a 145 OPS+. Arbitrators also look at consistency of career, so Konerko was probably fortunate he did not need to go to arbitration.

Konerko fielding is below league average (-2.9 UZR/150 for career) and his value to the team would increase if he was a DH, not decrease.

Chicagos attendance was about 1 million less than Bostons (another criteria).

I am not aware the arbitrators would consider age directly as it affects future performance, at least not for those with more than 6 years service time. Since they are only doling out single year non-guaranteed deals and not multi-year guaranteed deals, age does not seem as much a factor.

Edited by Sampo Gida, 05 February 2012 - 10:51 PM.

[Wake's knuckle]

Honestly, it's a win for the Sox if Papi doesn't get a multi-year deal, even with the 3.85 million dollar difference -- as long as Papi doesn't start pouting. He might. He could fall off a cliff not just any year now, but any DAY now. 3.85 mil more this year is definitely better, in my opinion, to the gamble of paying him 9-10 mil or more for 2013. If I were the GM, I'd do him the honor of offering him 1 yr, 16.5, which I feel is a way better gamble than 2/25 -- if that would even be enough to get it done. Papi is as happy as he can be with a one-year contract and won't cost us a dime in 2013 if his bat speed drops below that critic level that allows him to remain an effective ML hitter.

[walkoffblast]

Sampo Gida, on 05 February 2012 - 10:12 PM, said:

Arbitrators job is to make a fair decision on what Papi is worth. Some do their job better than others. In the ideal world, you would find several DH of Papis class who have concluded 1 yr deals in the past 2-3 years at around the age of 35. This animal does not exist unless you want to consider guys like Damon, Matsui and Vlad in Papis class. So they have to look at other comps that require a bit of an adjustment to be fair. An arbitrary process to be sure, but these are licensed arbitrators who also arbitrate in other fields.

It isn't as simple as just decide what he is worth though. That is like saying all a judge or jury has to do is determine guilt or innocence. Yes that is ultimately what they have to do but there are plenty of rules about how that decision process works. There are people that don't think it is "fair" that certain things that are not considered in the name of fairness.

Quote

Maybe I am making it too complicated. Arbitrators are also suposed to look at players previous salaries too. In 2010, Papi put up a 2.6 WAR and the Red Sox picked up his option for 2011 paying him 12.5 million. In 2011, Papi produced a 4.2 WAR in 2011, and the Red Sox offered him 12.65 million for 2012. The Red Sox are probably going to have to explain to the arbitrators why a 50% increase in production translates into a 1% raise. Papis request for a 33% raise seems quite reasonable in this context.

That suggests that teams pay players based on what they did last year not what they project them to do the coming year. You could just as easily argue that they extended him at 12.5-13 mil a year coming off a WAR over 5. In that sense a small decrease from 13 mil doesn't seem unreasonable. Basically the Red Sox picked up the option because they still though he could be a 4 or so WAR player while they would have declined it if they thought he was only going to put up 2.6 WAR.

Quote

Looking at the criteria again:

2.the length and consistency of his career contribution";

Also favors Papi, 145 OPS+ career with Red Sox, 154 OPS+ in 2011.

1 is correct but on 2 length probably helps Ortiz but I don't think consistency is his best friend at this point. When I look at the last 4 years I don't think of consistency. In the three years prior to 2011 he totaled 4.8 WAR.

Quote

3.the record of the Player's past compensation";

Also, favors Papi, made 12.5 million last year, increased production 50%, received 1% raise, asking for 33% raise.

Over the 4 years prior to the option pickup he put up 11.1 WAR. That is a little less than 3 WAR a year. If we include the option year we are looking at basically 3 WAR a year average. Why are we projecting him at 4+ WAR?

Quote

4.comparative baseball salaries";

Murky, few players at DH to compare, probably have to consider 1Bman and adjust for his lack of defense. Toss up.

Ambiguous certainly but I have a hard time seeing this favoring Papi because of the historical compensation for any DH. He is basically looking to have the highest paid season for a DH ever by over 2 million.

Quote

5.the existence of any physical or mental defects on the part of
the Player; and

Has consistently had 500+ PA per year in 8 of his 9 years as a Red Sox. Favors Papi.

6.the recent performance record of the Club including but not
limited to its League standing and attendance as an indication
of public acceptance.

Team won 90 games, had sold out very seat. Favors Papi.

Likely a non-issue but you have to wonder how the collapse plays in here and things like his press conference RBI freak out. Sure the Sox won 89,90 games the last two years but they also didn't make the playoffs either time.

I am not sure Papi has as much advantage on the criteria as you suggest.

[Sampo Gida]

walkoffblast, on 06 February 2012 - 12:07 PM, said:

That suggests that teams pay players based on what they did last year not what they project them to do the coming year. You could just as easily argue that they extended him at 12.5-13 mil a year coming off a WAR over 5. In that sense a small decrease from 13 mil doesn't seem unreasonable. Basically the Red Sox picked up the option because they still though he could be a 4 or so WAR player while they would have declined it if they thought he was only going to put up 2.6 WAR.

Papi was not a FA when he was extended. Extensions to cost controlled players are typically significantly discounted to market value prices that FA get. Also, the market value for a W is about 5 million. It seems more logical the Red Sox picked up Papis option because 2.6 WAR is worth 12.5 - 13 million, and not because they were projecting him at age 35 to give them 50% more in 2011 than 2010. If you are saying you think the Red Sox believe Papi will duplicate his 4+ WAR 2011, then their offer is way too low based on market rates (about 5 million per WAR).

walkoffblast, on 06 February 2012 - 12:07 PM, said:

1 is correct but on 2 length probably helps Ortiz but I don't think consistency is his best friend at this point. When I look at the last 4 years I don't think of consistency. In the three years prior to 2011 he totaled 4.8 WAR.


Over the 4 years prior to the option pickup he put up 11.1 WAR. That is a little less than 3 WAR a year. If we include the option year we are looking at basically 3 WAR a year average. Why are we projecting him at 4+ WAR?

I am not projecting a 4+WAR, although I would not rule it out, since he exceeded it in 2011. If the Red Sox were to agree to pay Papi 16.5 million, which is what he is asking, they would be projecting him to be putting up around a 3.3 WAR. Red Sox offer of 12.65 million is consistent with a projection of 2.5 WAR

His numbers in 2008/2009 were low, below 2.5 WAR, due to a wrist injury in 2008 that lingered into the first 2 months of 2009, but if you remove these outliers, he has been pretty consistent, and a 3.3+ WAR for 2012 is a reasonable projection.

walkoffblast, on 06 February 2012 - 12:07 PM, said:

Ambiguous certainly but I have a hard time seeing this favoring Papi because of the historical compensation for any DH. He is basically looking to have the highest paid season for a DH ever by over 2 million.

Arbitrators do not have to limit the comps to DH, and salary inflation makes historical comps difficult (elite players salaries growing faster than average players). Fact is, Papi was the best DH in 2011, and the best DH since 2003. Look at the best players in every position who have Free Agent contracts, and you would see 16.5 million is not out of line, even taking into account his lack of defense (worth about 15% of the average players value, less so for offensive slugging 1Bman)

walkoffblast, on 06 February 2012 - 12:07 PM, said:

Likely a non-issue but you have to wonder how the collapse plays in here and things like his press conference RBI freak out. Sure the Sox won 89,90 games the last two years but they also didn't make the playoffs either time.

Papi would probably argue that the Red Sox play in the AL East and the collapse/lack of making the playoffs was due to injuries and SPing, and a guy earning 142 million over 7 years who was worth almost 4 wins less than Papi, and 5 wins less than projected. Also, media reports are not permitted to be introduced.

walkoffblast, on 06 February 2012 - 12:07 PM, said:

I am not sure Papi has as much advantage on the criteria as you suggest.

Doesn't need much advantage to win, only a little.

[walkoffblast]

Sampo Gida, on 06 February 2012 - 07:25 PM, said:

Papi was not a FA when he was extended. Extensions to cost controlled players are typically significantly discounted to market value prices that FA get. Also, the market value for a W is about 5 million. It seems more logical the Red Sox picked up Papis option because 2.6 WAR is worth 12.5 - 13 million, and not because they were projecting him at age 35 to give them 50% more in 2011 than 2010. If you are saying you think the Red Sox believe Papi will duplicate his 4+ WAR 2011, then their offer is way too low based on market rates (about 5 million per WAR).

I am not projecting a 4+WAR, although I would not rule it out, since he exceeded it in 2011. If the Red Sox were to agree to pay Papi 16.5 million, which is what he is asking, they would be projecting him to be putting up around a 3.3 WAR. Red Sox offer of 12.65 million is consistent with a projection of 2.5 WAR

I find the 5 mil per WAR to be an overly simplistic application usually. Not irrelevant but not a simple fact that applies to all situations regardless of circumstances. Basically it is useful in broad application but it breaks down when things get too specific. I clearly don't believe the Sox project him for 4+ WAR. Performance in one year doesn't set a new average talent level.

Quote

His numbers in 2008/2009 were low, below 2.5 WAR, due to a wrist injury in 2008 that lingered into the first 2 months of 2009, but if you remove these outliers, he has been pretty consistent, and a 3.3+ WAR for 2012 is a reasonable projection.

This is what I never understand about how a lot of people analyze baseball on the internet. Anything negative should be excluded for some reason but none of the good stuff should be excluded. Injuries are a real possibility, especially for older players. Paying guys based on what they will do if everything goes perfect is not reflective of their true value.

Quote

Arbitrators do not have to limit the comps to DH, and salary inflation makes historical comps difficult (elite players salaries growing faster than average players). Fact is, Papi was the best DH in 2011, and the best DH since 2003. Look at the best players in every position who have Free Agent contracts, and you would see 16.5 million is not out of line, even taking into account his lack of defense (worth about 15% of the average players value, less so for offensive slugging 1Bman)

Inflation is the only reason his case isn't already dead in the water IMO. The problem with these comparisons is that the market for DH is much more limited than any other market. The market for a highly paid DH is even smaller.

Quote

Papi would probably argue that the Red Sox play in the AL East and the collapse/lack of making the playoffs was due to injuries and SPing, and a guy earning 142 million over 7 years who was worth almost 4 wins less than Papi, and 5 wins less than projected. Also, media reports are not permitted to be introduced.

It doesn't really matter the reason as the only point there is that third place team in the division two years running trumps win totals. The criteria you listed said "team" so Papi can throw others under the bus if he wants but it would not seem to help him on that bullet point. Who says any of that is a media report only? I highly doubt they would even include the category if they had to rule out anything the media had reported on before. If Papi had some issues during last season that would certainly be relevant if the Sox chose to bring it up.

Quote

Doesn't need much advantage to win, only a little.

Not necessarily. I doubt these categories all carry the same weight and even then it would only be true if his true value was exactly in the middle of the two offers, which is highly unlikely.

The problem with arbitration is that a player somewhat admits that they think a modest raise on what they made the year before is better than they can get on the free market. That doesn't seem to help the case of someone like Papi looking for a fairly large raise based on what his free market value supposedly might be. It certainly is possible that Papi could win but I certainly would not call him the favorite.

[Sampo Gida]

walkoffblast, on 07 February 2012 - 06:23 PM, said:

I find the 5 mil per WAR to be an overly simplistic application usually. Not irrelevant but not a simple fact that applies to all situations regardless of circumstances. Basically it is useful in broad application but it breaks down when things get too specific. I clearly don't believe the Sox project him for 4+ WAR. Performance in one year doesn't set a new average talent level.

Obviously, teams use some number to convert a players runs and wins into dollars. Fan Graphs and other sites usually use an average for all teams, but we know this is not correct since the value of an incremental win depends on how many wins a team is expected to win. For a team like the Red Sox at the threshold of making the playoffs, the value of an additional win is greater than average, while for a team like the Royals it is less. The arbitrators probably would use an average (if they used WAR at all) which is why small market teams tend to avoid arbitration for free agent eligible players. A fair price for a team like the Red Sox is too expensive for them. Papis 4.2 WAR won't help the Royals get any closer to the playoffs than w/o him.

Papis WAR in 2011 is not setting a new talent level, it is actually somewhat lower than his annual career avg WAR with the Red Sox as mentioned before. OTOH Konerko did have a career year in 2010, and his 3 year deal obviously took into account this was an outlier, but then some use it to claim Papis 2011 was not as good as Konerkos 2010, and is an argument he should not make more. So your argument is valid for Konerko, but does not apply to Papis case.

Quote

This is what I never understand about how a lot of people analyze baseball on the internet. Anything negative should be excluded for some reason but none of the good stuff should be excluded. Injuries are a real possibility, especially for older players. Paying guys based on what they will do if everything goes perfect is not reflective of their true value.

Whereas you discount numbers that are commonly accepted as overly simplistic if they do not support your view. What is the negative here? An injury in 2008-2009 that he was able to play through and which affected his numbers (no wonder some players would rather sit on the DL than play) ? Obviously, teams discount for risk in any offer. The risk increases with contract length. Papi had a 4.2 WAR last year and we are looking at a 1 yr deal. I am saying his value is closer to Papis asking price than the Red Sox, which comes out to under 3.3 WAR, under 3 in fact. Plenty of guys out there with commitments at age 36 with much higher salaries than Papi is asking for (A-Gon, Fielder, Pujols, Howard, A-Rod, Teixeira).

Sure, Papi could get hurt, but then so can anyone. Over the past 2 years we have seen younger players than Papi get hurt. Pedroia, Jacoby, Beckett, Buchholz, Lackey, Daisuke, Youk, Papis been among the healthiest and his performance has improved each year since 2009, regressing to his career numbers .

Quote

Inflation is the only reason his case isn't already dead in the water IMO. The problem with these comparisons is that the market for DH is much more limited than any other market. The market for a highly paid DH is even smaller.

The market for Mercedes is smaller than that of a Ford. So what are you saying?, Mercedes should be priced the same as a Ford?

Quote

It doesn't really matter the reason as the only point there is that third place team in the division two years running trumps win totals. The criteria you listed said "team" so Papi can throw others under the bus if he wants but it would not seem to help him on that bullet point. Who says any of that is a media report only? I highly doubt they would even include the category if they had to rule out anything the media had reported on before. If Papi had some issues during last season that would certainly be relevant if the Sox chose to bring it up.

Media point has nothing to do with W-L record which is the accepted criteria (not place in standings). Not aware of any issues the Red Sox have with Papi so discussing it seems pointless. Media reports like PED allegations and Papi being unhappy are not permitted, and even if they are made, the arbitrators would not consider them.

Quote

Not necessarily. I doubt these categories all carry the same weight and even then it would only be true if his true value was exactly in the middle of the two offers, which is highly unlikely.

The whole point of arbitration is to determine if Papis request is closer to the midpoint than the Red Sox offer. If the arbitrators feel, based on all of the criteria, that Papis true value is closer at least 14.6 million, Papi wins, If they think it is 14.5 or less, Red Sox win. If all of the criteria favor Papi to this end, he wins, even if it favors him only by a small amount. If he only some of the criteria favor him, or even most but not all, then obviously, weighting is important.

Quote

The problem with arbitration is that a player somewhat admits that they think a modest raise on what they made the year before is better than they can get on the free market. That doesn't seem to help the case of someone like Papi looking for a fairly large raise based on what his free market value supposedly might be. It certainly is possible that Papi could win but I certainly would not call him the favorite.

I am pretty sure the arbitrators are not supposed to hold the fact Papi accepted arbitration as a case against him, but who knows. It could just as easily be that Papi has decided he wants to finish out his career in Boston and expected the Red Sox to negotiate in good faith to avoid arbitration. The fact that Papi received an offer for a 1% raise after increasing his production 50% makes his case pretty strong, your attempt to argue otherwise notwithstanding.

Papi was a bit unfortunate the Pineda trade did not happen earlier, as I am sure the Yankees might have broke their budget for Papi given they are now looking at the likes of Ibanez, Damon and Matsui.

[Sampo Gida]

Looking at the comps in a bit more detail, folks can make their own conclusions.

Contract

Dunns contract 4/56 (14 AAV) signed after 2010 (infl adj AAV 14.4 million)
Delgados 4/52 (13 AAV) signed after 2004 (infl adj 16.0 AAV)
Konerko 3/37.5 (12.5 AAV) signed after 2010 (infl adj AAV 12.9 AAV)
Papi asking 16.5 (midpoint 14.575), Red Sox offer 12.65

* using 3% annual adjustment, salary inflation is actually higher

Age(1st yr of contract)

Dunns -31
Delgado-33
Papis -36
Konerko-35

Contract year performance (FG WAR-conventional stats)

Delgado-2.5 WAR in 2004, 269/372/535, 32 HR, 99 RBI, 129 OPS+
Dunn-3.5 WAR in 2010 260/356/536, 38 HR, 103 RBI, 138 OPS+
Papi-4.2 WAR in 2011, 309/398/554, 29 HR, 96 RBI, 154 OPS+
Konerko 3.9 WAR in 2010, 312/393/584, 39 HR, 111 RBI, 160 OPS+

3 yr avg Performance

Delgado -3.9 WAR, 284/403/561, 36 HR, 117 RBI, 147 OPS+
Dunn-1.8 WAR, 255/380/526, 39 HR, 103 RBI, 138 OPS+
Papi - 2.4 WAR, 272/366/515, 30 HR, 99 RBI, 130 OPS+
Konerko- 2.2 WAR, 279/365/508,30 HR, 87 , 127 OPS+,

Career @Time of signing, annual avg (162 games)

Delgado 4.1 WAR, 282/392/556, 39 HR, 121 RBI, 142 OPS+
Dunn - 3.3 WAR 280/381/521, 40 HR,, 99 RBI, 133 OPS+
Papi-, 3.3 WAR, 283/378/544, 35 HR, 118 RBI, 136 OPS+
Konerko-2.2 WAR, 280/356/498, 33 HR, 102 RBI,119 OPS+

Defense (from 2002)

Delgado- (-27.8 UZR)
Dunn (-92.3 UZR)
Konerko (-16.9 UZR)
Papi (-3.7 UZR)

Just showing here that none of these guys value was in their defense.

Edited by Sampo Gida, 07 February 2012 - 11:08 PM.

[keyalyn]

What are the chances the arbitrator looks at UZR? WAR? SoS? Park Factor? H/R Splits? That is all well and good, but at the end of the day they are almost certainly not going to look at those statistics. Yeah, all of the above suck defensively, but they played a position. Being a DH is likely to hurt Ortiz more than being a poor defender hurt Konerko or Delgado. The fact Ortiz hit 29HR and 96RBI is likely a bigger factor than the fact he had an 154OPS+ and 4.2WAR.

$16.5M on a one year deal is far from an overpay for Ortiz, bu the arbitrators will not agree unless they start to look at stats that they have generally ignored.

[Sampo Gida]

keyalyn, on 09 February 2012 - 12:52 AM, said:

What are the chances the arbitrator looks at UZR? WAR? SoS? Park Factor? H/R Splits? That is all well and good, but at the end of the day they are almost certainly not going to look at those statistics. Yeah, all of the above suck defensively, but they played a position. Being a DH is likely to hurt Ortiz more than being a poor defender hurt Konerko or Delgado. The fact Ortiz hit 29HR and 96RBI is likely a bigger factor than the fact he had an 154OPS+ and 4.2WAR.

$16.5M on a one year deal is far from an overpay for Ortiz, bu the arbitrators will not agree unless they start to look at stats that they have generally ignored.

There are 2 parts to the thread. One is figuring out what Papis is worth, the the other is "guessing" what the arbitrators will decide. WAR helps with the former, especially as we don't have to consider defense which is it's biggest problem (1 year UZR, SSS)

How do we know exactly what the arbitrators look at?. They never explain their judgements. I mean, I have to imagine they are not living in a closet and some are baseball fans. Baseball fans who are numbers oriented and make their living making value judgements on what people and things are worth probably have spent some time at Fan Graphs and B-ref. These stats aren't all that complex. It would not surprise me at all if some of them look up stats on the internet before passing judgement.
Not sure why Papis agent would not throw it out there and given them a link.

I don't see anywhere that arbitrators even consider defense unless someone wins a GG award. I agree with you that arbitrators will at least have to look at OBP and OPS, maybe even OPS+, and understaand the limitations of RBI's and the fact Fenway suppresses HR's for LHB'ers, and that this is the dead ball era and not the juiced ball era, and I am not sure they don't or won't.

Also, Papi probably plays defense as well as Adam Dunn did, but he played in a league with a DH and the Red Sox chose to use him at DH where he was more valuable to the "team", having other options at 1B.

[keyalyn]

My opinion on what the arbitrators look it is based on what the arbitration expert from the previously quoted article said. The guy hired by teams to build their case due to his knowledge of the system. His view on the matter is that Ortiz doesn't have as strong a case as the Red Sox, because of his age and the important statistics he expects they will look at: HR, RBI, OPS, SLG, and other basic stats. I am sure there are arbitrators out there who do look at stats other than the basic ones, but I imagine that a majority of them out there don't even consider much else.

[Sampo Gida]

Obviously, he has a conflict of interest given he represents the teams, maybe even the Red Sox.

Also, in the criteria it says nothing about age, and most cases arbitrators see show the players salary increasing in salary with age (only 2 cases since 1974 had had a salary reduction).

From what I can gather, they are only supposed to look at service time, and thats mainly for players with less than 6 yrs service time.

I guess what we don't know would fill a few pages here. Hearing is on Monday. I think it gets settled before, but if not I guess we find out who wins next week.

If Papi wins I want a cut.

[walkoffblast]

Speier played our game with the criteria. I actually hope this goes to a hearing. The case is so much more interesting than just a settlement towards the middle.

[Sampo Gida]

walkoffblast, on 09 February 2012 - 02:38 PM, said:

Speier played our game with the criteria. I actually hope this goes to a hearing. The case is so much more interesting than just a settlement towards the middle.

Alas, that's just what it was. No surprise really. Seems everyone fears the roll of a dice that is an arbitration decision. Not sure we would have learned anything if it did go to arbitration, but it would have been interesting.

[keyalyn]

Not a surprise and clearly all for the best, but I am a little bit disappointed it didn't end up going to trial. Good that he didn't end up getting 16.5M, but it would have been very interesting to see how they ruled on such a unique case.

Edited by keyalyn, 14 February 2012 - 09:44 PM.

[walkoffblast]

Interesting to read the write up on what it takes to get draft picks for players next year on mlbtraderumors. It is likely the Red Sox will only need to offer Ortiz no more than 13 mil to guarantee a draft pick next year if he leaves because of the new collective bargaining agreement. I wonder if the Sox were thinking about using the new CBA formula as an argument basis if it went to arbitration since there was not much in the way of comparables? 12.65 mil might be the exact best 125 player salary average estimate from 2011.

[Sampo Gida]

walkoffblast, on 15 February 2012 - 03:32 PM, said:

Interesting to read the write up on what it takes to get draft picks for players next year on mlbtraderumors. It is likely the Red Sox will only need to offer Ortiz no more than 13 mil to guarantee a draft pick next year if he leaves because of the new collective bargaining agreement. I wonder if the Sox were thinking about using the new CBA formula as an argument basis if it went to arbitration since there was not much in the way of comparables? 12.65 mil might be the exact best 125 player salary average estimate from 2011.

I read somewhere that in the entire history of arbitration only 2 cases have actually ended in arbitration with a player getting a pay cut. I think if Papi has a year between 2010 and 2011 the Red Sox would have to pay him at least what he made in 2012 if they offer him arbitration.

Not sure what you mean by 125 player average. They look at best comps, and probaby just as important,they look at the players salary history. Red Sox have pretty much established their market with Papi by picking up his 2011 option and this 2012 settlement.

I think if they offer Papi arbitration next year, he takes it. Papi earns about 6 million in endorsement revenue and some of that may go away if he leaves, unless he went to NY. The Yankees have their own issues with getting under the CBT threshold, and are really the only team out their willing to pay that much for a DH. I think Adam Dunn has a lot of teams gun shy when it comes to paying out big dollars for an elite DH, and their seems to be a surplus of cheap secondary value DH types on the market (eg this year Damon, Vlad, Manny, Ibanez, Matsui still looking for jobs) every year.

Youk has a 13 million dollar option for 2013. If Youk has another injury riddled year, they may not pick up his option, and then may be able to bring Papi back for another year. If they pick up Youks option, I would be shocked if they offered Papi arbitration.

Edited by Sampo Gida, 15 February 2012 - 05:49 PM.

[walkoffblast]

In the new CBA free agent compensation has been overhauled. Starting next year you only get a draft pick if you make a qualifying offer which is a one year deal in the amount of the average of the highest 125 player salaries from the preceeding year. It isn't about arbitration anymore for players that are in the free agency stage of their career and there is no more of the type A and B stuff.

[Sampo Gida]

walkoffblast, on 15 February 2012 - 09:29 PM, said:

In the new CBA free agent compensation has been overhauled. Starting next year you only get a draft pick if you make a qualifying offer which is a one year deal in the amount of the average of the highest 125 player salaries from the preceeding year. It isn't about arbitration anymore for players that are in the free agency stage of their career and there is no more of the type A and B stuff.

Thanks for the clarification. Still, offering him a 1 yr contract at the 125 player avg amounts to about the same as offering him arbitration (albeit with more cost certainty) , you are basically looking at spending more for him than they want in 2013 if he accepts, unless he has another good year and they plan on declining Youks option.

Thats next years problem though.

edit: Also, now that I understand what you were getting at, I don't see how that 125 avg could have been an argument in lieu of comps. That avg is simply the minimum salary that must be offered to get a pick as compensation, not what a FA is worth. Certainly players could be offered more. Fielder for example certainly could have been offered more by the Brewers this year if the rule were in place ? to show the fan base they tried to resign him, whereas a 12.65 million offer would be deemed laughable.

I wonder what Papi would have done this year if the new rule were in place.

Edited by Sampo Gida, 15 February 2012 - 10:03 PM.

[walkoffblast]

Sampo Gida, on 15 February 2012 - 09:55 PM, said:

Thanks for the clarification. Still, offering him a 1 yr contract at the 125 player avg amounts to about the same as offering him arbitration (albeit with more cost certainty) , you are basically looking at spending more for him than they want in 2013 if he accepts, unless he has another good year and they plan on declining Youks option.

Arbitration next year on Papi would cost them at least 15 mil probably more. This year the 125 player average was somewhere in the 12.4-12.65 mil range. If this offseason is any indication 2.5+ mil is meaningful. I doubt they want to spend even 12.5-13 mil on him in 2013 as well but if he has another good year I'd be surprised if they didn't make the offer.