72 replies to this topic

[TomRicardo]

Looks like we landed Padilla.

Edited by TomRicardo, 16 January 2012 - 12:37 PM.

[C4CRVT]

http://lasordaslair....icente-padilla/

Interesting article on his history.

Throwing 95-96 in Nicaragua eh?

[QUNate]

https://twitter.com/#!/pgammo

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Peter Gammons @pgammo31m

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Vicente Padilla has agreed with Red Sox

[AlNipper49]

...

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

You say Pineda, I say Padilla...

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

The New "El Guapo" ????

[The Boomer]

Do Bobby Valentine's skeptical remarks about Kuroda going from the Dodgers to the Yankees apply to Padilla's move to the AL East and the Red Sox? This seems like a low risk - high reward move. If Padilla is healthy, he will be comparable to Kuroda but, presumably, for a lot less money.

[Corsi]

Minor League deal; invite to spring training.

[rembrat]

Looks like the Sox will still lead the league in hit batters again.

[JakeRae]

The Boomer, on 16 January 2012 - 02:03 PM, said:

Do Bobby Valentine's skeptical remarks about Kuroda going from the Dodgers to the Yankees apply to Padilla's move to the AL East and the Red Sox? This seems like a low risk - high reward move. If Padilla is healthy, he will be comparable to Kuroda but, presumably, for a lot less money.

Is Padilla ever healthy?

This does solve the 5th starter problem for the beginning of the season. Hopefully, by the time Padilla hurts himself, Matsuzaka will be back. Then, maybe we'll get Padilla back before the next injury to a starter.

To back up that statement with some numbers, Padilla has thrown 1 season of more that 150 IP since 2006 (from 2002 to 2006 he got to 200 3 times and failed to reach 150 twice). That was 2008, where he still only threw 171 innings.

When he's healthy, he should be good for roughly league average performance. I assume he is coming cheap since he barely pitched at all last year. I would've preferred Oswalt, but if they really had no money to spend and were stuck shopping in the bargain bin, Padilla is a pretty good pickup. This has the added benefit of moving Aceves back to the bullpen.

[tonyarmasjr]

JakeRae, on 16 January 2012 - 02:11 PM, said:

When he's healthy, he should be good for roughly league average performance. I assume he is coming cheap since he barely pitched at all last year. I would've preferred Oswalt, but if they really had no money to spend and were stuck shopping in the bargain bin, Padilla is a pretty good pickup. This has the added benefit of moving Aceves back to the bullpen.

I don't have time to look for it now, but haven't they said Aceves is the first in line to move into the rotation before Bard?

[DLew On Roids]

Now appearing in the Dunkin Dugout....

[Laser Show]

He'll make $1.5 million if he makes the major league team, according to the Herald.

[JakeRae]

tonyarmasjr, on 16 January 2012 - 02:52 PM, said:

I don't have time to look for it now, but haven't they said Aceves is the first in line to move into the rotation before Bard?

I pay as little attention as possible to organizational comments about intent during the offseason. Although I believe they have made comments of the sort you are referring to, it was before they traded for a closer and a set up guy. The Bailey trade is as clear a signal as possible that Bard will be a starter next year.

Bard makes a ton more sense as a starter. He has better stuff, doesn't have a history of performing notably worse as a starter, and has infinitely more upside.

[nothumb]

Is it clear that Padilla will start for the Sox, if he makes the ML roster? He closed briefly for the Dodgers last year and there was some speculation that he might be better suited as a reliever at this point in his career. (Not suggesting he'd close for the Sox, but could be more of a middle relief / swing man type who can give you two or three innings of not-terrible RHP if you need it).

EDIT: i see that one link above says he wants to start, but, you know... beggars, choosers etc.

Edited by nothumb, 16 January 2012 - 07:09 PM.

[PedroSpecialK]

Padilla, Padilla, Padilla - that's all, folks!

The 6th-9th starter fodder is definitely better this year than last. Yeah.

[someoneanywhere]

Carl Everetts Therapist, on 16 January 2012 - 01:58 PM, said:

The New "El Guapo" ????

You might say that. You could say that. But if you do say that, you're going to get some 96 mph Nicky league cheese in your earhole.

tonyarmasjr, on 16 January 2012 - 02:52 PM, said:

I don't have time to look for it now, but haven't they said Aceves is the first in line to move into the rotation before Bard?

The only thing these two Mexidudes will be competing for is which of them is the fruitcake and which is the nutcake.

Edited by someoneanywhere, 16 January 2012 - 08:27 PM.

[teddywingman]

JakeRae, on 16 January 2012 - 06:21 PM, said:

Bard makes a ton more sense as a starter. He has better stuff, doesn't have a history of performing notably worse as a starter, and has infinitely more upside.

Want to back that up with some numbers?

I don't mean to imply that his performance at age 22 is indicative of how he'll perform this year, but I am not a fan of Bard in the rotation. His build and reliance on 97+ velocity scares me in this transition to a starting role.

I would much rather see Aceves and someone off this ever expanding scrapheap fill out the 4 and 5 spots.

Edited by teddywingman, 16 January 2012 - 08:37 PM.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

teddywingman, on 16 January 2012 - 08:35 PM, said:

Want to back that up with some numbers?

I don't mean to imply that his performance at age 22 is indicative of how he'll perform this year, but I am not a fan of Bard in the rotation. His build and reliance on 97+ velocity scares me in this transition to a starting role.

I would much rather see Aceves and someone off this ever expanding scrapheap fill out the 4 and 5 spots.

Why? He's never had trouble maintaining that velocity as a starter before. I don't see any reason to think it might dip in that role. In college he was finishing games while still throwing 98. Bard is by far the better and more exciting option of the two and I think the Sox are making the right choice by tucking Aceves back in the pen. The only question I have about Bard being a solid or better starter is whether he can build up to 180+ inning seasons or not. The only way we're going to find out is to give him the chance to do it. He has the arsenal to be successful.

[Rough Carrigan]

DeJesus Built My Hotrod, on 16 January 2012 - 01:54 PM, said:

You say Pineda, I say Padilla...

Let's call the whole thing off.

How many guys like this do we need to sign? This is a bit like a nitwit going down to the convenience store and buying thousands of lottery tickets thinking one of 'em must be the jackpot.

[flymrfreakjar]

Rough Carrigan, on 16 January 2012 - 10:45 PM, said:

Let's call the whole thing off.

How many guys like this do we need to sign? This is a bit like a nitwit going down to the convenience store and buying thousands of lottery tickets thinking one of 'em must be the jackpot.

This is probably true... but after NY struck gold with Colon and Garcia last year, maybe it's worth a shot. Where would they be if they didn't buy those tickets?

[teddywingman]

Snodgrass'Muff, on 16 January 2012 - 10:38 PM, said:

Why? He's never had trouble maintaining that velocity as a starter before. I don't see any reason to think it might dip in that role. In college he was finishing games while still throwing 98. Bard is by far the better and more exciting option of the two and I think the Sox are making the right choice by tucking Aceves back in the pen. The only question I have about Bard being a solid or better starter is whether he can build up to 180+ inning seasons or not. The only way we're going to find out is to give him the chance to do it. He has the arsenal to be successful.

Aside from spring training, Daniel Bard has started 22 games in the Red Sox organization--all at A+ and A in 2007. As I said before, his age 22 season is not indicative of what he may be capable of this year at age 27, but let's take a look at those 2007 numbers because there's not much else to go by.

-In 22 starts he pitched into the 6th inning only once.
-He managed 5 complete innings in 4 other starts.

Now, those numbers would seem to show an organization treating a young pitcher with extra caution-- concern over workload. It's the following numbers that say something else.

-In 17 starts he failed to make it through 5 innings.
-9 of those starts he didn't make it out of the third.

Walks were a problem.

-6 BB in 4 of those starts.
-5 BB in 5 others.
-12 starts in which he walked 4 or more.

All told he pitched 75 innings in '07 with a 7.08 ERA, a 2.05 WHIP, and 9.4 BB/9.

The next year he was in the pen and the dominant Bard began to emerge.

In 3 major league seasons and 197 innings he's averaged 3.5 BB/9. Is it fair to assume this number will go up as he faces more hitters in the early innings--hitters with a gameplan to wear him down?

Edited by teddywingman, 16 January 2012 - 11:35 PM.

[Sprowl]

Rough Carrigan, on 16 January 2012 - 10:45 PM, said:

Let's call the whole thing off.

How many guys like this do we need to sign? This is a bit like a nitwit going down to the convenience store and buying thousands of lottery tickets thinking one of 'em must be the jackpot.

The trouble with going with a bunch of lottery tickets instead of a high-ceiling free agent like Oswalt is the number of failed starts that must be risked to identify which lottery ticket is most likely to pay off. Even if one ticket is a winner, that is unlikely to be clear before the season starts. It puts a premium on successful evaluation of the talent, durability and near-term performance potential of Padilla, Silva et al during spring training. Valentine, McClure and Niemann had better show good judgment.

[OttoC]

What are the chances Bard will be throwing 98-100 mph fastballs in the 5th inning of his first start after spring training? How much will Bard have to change his approach to pitching to go the innings needed to be a starter? Will he be successful if he changes his approach?

[Sprowl]

OttoC, on 16 January 2012 - 11:49 PM, said:

What are the chances Bard will be throwing 98-100 mph fastballs in the 5th inning of his first start after spring training? How much will Bard have to change his approach to pitching to go the innings needed to be a starter? Will he be successful if he changes his approach?

1. 5%. I don't think he'll get higher than 97 mph in the 2nd and 3rd innings, and then decline from there. Provided his command improves gradually (as it should with age), that's not a problem.

2. He'll have to incorporate his changeup more often, and as early as the 2nd time through the order to LHB. He'll have to master his sinker and alternate it with his 4-seamer more often. He probably can't use his slider half the time, since it places more strain on the shoulder.

3. Yes.

[JakeRae]

teddywingman, on 16 January 2012 - 11:34 PM, said:

Aside from spring training, Daniel Bard has started 22 games in the Red Sox organization--all at A+ and A in 2007. As I said before, his age 22 season is not indicative of what he may be capable of this year at age 27, but let's take a look at those 2007 numbers because there's not much else to go by.

I cut out the rest of your post because the 2007 numbers are worthless. The Red Sox changed Bard's mechanics in 2007. With the new mechanics, Bard could not consistently throw strikes. After that failed experiment, they switched Bard back to his old mechanics. At the same time, they moved him to the bullpen, most likely because of his accelerated timetable due to having signed a MLB contract. With his old mechanics and in the bullpen, he reverted to the stud we thought we had drafted and was in MLB by mid-season after dominating at every level he pitched at.

So, Bard dominated as a starter in college, sucked in 2007 with new mechanics as a minor league starter, and dominated as a reliever after that with his original mechanics. 2007 is an obvious outlier and is best ignored. There are real risks here. Bard hasn't started in 4 years. Bard has no minor league track record as a starter. The conversion could expose him to increased injury risk. His stuff could get exposed at this level when he has to go multiple times through the order. But, the risks aren't about how terrible he was in 2007. What we learned from 2007 is that the mechanical changes the organization made to his delivery sucked.

[teddywingman]

I had forgotten about the mechanics experiment--the organization believing he'd have more success throwing over the top rather than his normal 3/4 arm slot.

To say that he dominated as a starter in college might be a stretch. A quick look at his college numbers show ERA's of 3.88 as freshman, 4.22 as a sophomore, and 3.47 as a junior (1.56 over his last 7 appearances). Good numbers for sure-- but dominant?

My biggest concern is the walks. As I asked up thread:

In 3 major league seasons and 197 innings he's averaged 3.5 BB/9. Is it fair to assume this number will go up as he faces more hitters in the early innings--hitters with a gameplan to wear him down?

League average last year was 3.1 BB/9. 3.5 Isn't that bad when he can bare down with that nasty slider or the 99 MPH gas to get out of an inning. But as a starter, his approach will have to evolve. He will have to dial it back, right? So where does that leave him?

Maybe by dialing it back, his command will improve. More likely it will stay about the same or get worse while his hits per nine will rise significantly from his career number of 6.0.

Maybe I'm way off. After all, his BB/9 has improved in each of his three seasons-- 2.96 last year--while his GB% has also improved to a career best 52.7% last season.

It will be interesting for sure. I'm hoping for the best, of course, but if it weren't already apparent-- I am a skeptic.

(sorry for the tangent. I have nothing to add re: Vicente Padilla. Maybe it's time for a Starting Bard thread.)

Edited by teddywingman, 17 January 2012 - 04:30 AM.

[Frisbetarian]

This signing will be certainly be entertaining, if nothing else. Padilla is a character - Shaughnessy is going to kill him - but I like his history. Did you know that Vincente Padilla is the only U.S. professional athlete to ever test positive for swine flu? Or that he was shot by a friend, with the bullet going completely through his right leg? His more well known "grudges" include Mark Teixeira, who Padilla hit twice in one game. These guys really dislike each other. He also hit A.J. Pierzynski twice in a game, drawing Ozzie Guillen's ire. Nick Swisher is another Padilla victim, and he charged the mound only to get ragdolled by Vincente in a fight some Texas fans thought showed an unmany side of our old buddy Swishalicious.

He certainly picks the players he hits well. I like him.

[rembrat]

Awesome. He sounds like he could have pitched alongside Old Hoss Radbourn.

[John DiFool]

Franklin Morales has signed a 1 year, $850K deal. I didn't see a thread or discussion on this yet.

[TomRicardo]

John DiFool, on 17 January 2012 - 10:34 AM, said:

Franklin Morales has signed a 1 year, $850K deal. I didn't see a thread or discussion on this yet.

Solid choice putting a bullpen resign in a thread about a new MiL contract. I hope Padilla throw at your head.

[The Boomer]

Frisbetarian, on 17 January 2012 - 09:17 AM, said:

This signing will be certainly be entertaining, if nothing else. Padilla is a character - Shaughnessy is going to kill him - but I like his history. Did you know that Vincente Padilla is the only U.S. professional athlete to ever test positive for swine flu? Or that he was shot by a friend, with the bullet going completely through his right leg? His more well known "grudges" include Mark Teixeira, who Padilla hit twice in one game. These guys really dislike each other. He also hit A.J. Pierzynski twice in a game, drawing Ozzie Guillen's ire. Nick Swisher is another Padilla victim, and he charged the mound only to get ragdolled by Vincente in a fight some Texas fans thought showed an unmany side of our old buddy Swishalicious.

He certainly picks the players he hits well. I like him.

Not too many of you are old enough to remember how Sal "the Barber" Maglie, an HBP and brushback artist, received much credit as the Sox pitching coach for instilling some Dick Williams toughness in the pitching staff of those 1967 Impossible Dream Red Sox. This was once much more a part of the game and, more than an attitude problem (other than he tolerates A-holes poorly), Padilla sounds more like a "throwback" pitcher who believes that the inner half of the plate is territory that he will fight for.

Edited by The Boomer, 17 January 2012 - 12:22 PM.

[Lose Remerswaal]

The Boomer, on 17 January 2012 - 12:18 PM, said:

Not too many of you are old enough to remember how Sal "the Barber" Magglio, an HBP and brushback artist, received much credit as the Sox pitching coach for instilling some Dick Williams toughness in the pitching staff of those 1967 Impossible Dream Red Sox. This was once much more a part of the game and, more than an attitude problem (other than he tolerates A-holes poorly), Padilla sounds more like a "throwback" pitcher who believes that the inner half of the plate is territory that he will fight for.

I don't remember Sal "the Barber" Magglio, but I do remember Sal "the Barber" Maglie.

Sound like similar guys.

[The Boomer]

Lose Remerswaal, on 17 January 2012 - 12:21 PM, said:

I don't remember Sal "the Barber" Magglio, but I do remember Sal "the Barber" Maglie.

Sound like similar guys.

That's the problem with those aging brain cells. You screw up stuff like that.

[Al Zarilla]

The Boomer, on 17 January 2012 - 12:24 PM, said:

That's the problem with those aging brain cells. You screw up stuff like that.

Well, I forgot that he ever was a Red Sox pitching coach, or never knew. Really?

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Al Zarilla, on 17 January 2012 - 12:26 PM, said:

Well, I forgot that he ever was a Red Sox pitching coach, or never knew. Really?

1960-1967...he had a lengthy run and might have stayed longer had he gotten along with Dick Williams.

http://bioproj.sabr....d=1600&pid=8662

[The Boomer]

Al Zarilla, on 17 January 2012 - 12:26 PM, said:

Well, I forgot that he ever was a Red Sox pitching coach, or never knew. Really?

It appears so:

http://bioproj.sabr....d=1600&pid=8662

The description of his Red Sox pitching coach experience is awesom. I also love this description of his pitching reputation:

"He scares you to death. He's scowling and gnashing his teeth, and if you try to dig in on him, there goes your Adam's apple. He's gonna win if it kills you and him both." So the Cincinnati Reds' Danny Litwhiler described the unnerving experience of batting against Sal Maglie. Between 1950 and 1956 Maglie was among the most feared hurlers in baseball. A glowering, 6-foot-2-inch, 180-pound righthander whose game-day face bristled with thick black stubble, he looked capable of killing the opposing batters, and his pitching style confirmed the fears his appearance aroused. His high hard one came in so close to batters' heads that it seemed to shave their chins, gaining him the memorable nickname "Sal the Barber." Although best remembered for his on-field ferocity, Maglie didn't come by his reputation naturally. Off the field he was a gentle, courteous, good-natured man, and it took him a long time to learn his trade.

[Al Zarilla]

The Boomer, on 17 January 2012 - 12:30 PM, said:

It appears so:

http://bioproj.sabr....d=1600&pid=8662

The description of his Red Sox pitching coach experience is awesom. I also love this description of his pitching reputation:

"He scares you to death. He's scowling and gnashing his teeth, and if you try to dig in on him, there goes your Adam's apple. He's gonna win if it kills you and him both." So the Cincinnati Reds' Danny Litwhiler described the unnerving experience of batting against Sal Maglie. Between 1950 and 1956 Maglie was among the most feared hurlers in baseball. A glowering, 6-foot-2-inch, 180-pound righthander whose game-day face bristled with thick black stubble, he looked capable of killing the opposing batters, and his pitching style confirmed the fears his appearance aroused. His high hard one came in so close to batters' heads that it seemed to shave their chins, gaining him the memorable nickname "Sal the Barber." Although best remembered for his on-field ferocity, Maglie didn't come by his reputation naturally. Off the field he was a gentle, courteous, good-natured man, and it took him a long time to learn his trade.

You're right, I looked up Sal's Wikipedia while you were posting again and here it is:

After two terms (1960–62; 1966–67) as pitching coach of the Boston Red Sox, Maglie took a similar post for the expansionSeattle Pilots in 1969.

I was living in NH and Boston in those years and somehow missed the fact that Sal was the Sox' pitching coach. Dick Williams hogged all the spotlight, I guess, at least in 1967.

I saw Padilla hit Aaron Rowand in the face in 2010 and he sure looked like it wasn't a pitch that "just got away". We'll see how he does with the Red Sox.

[John DiFool]

TomRicardo, on 17 January 2012 - 10:36 AM, said:

Solid choice putting a bullpen resign in a thread about a new MiL contract. I hope Padilla throw at your head.

WTF is your effin' problem?

[dbn]

TomRicardo, on 17 January 2012 - 10:36 AM, said:

Solid choice putting a bullpen resign in a thread about a new MiL contract. I hope Padilla throw at your head.

Oh, and he HATES it when people mix up "resign" and "re-sign". He's coming after you, TomRicardo.

[Savin Hillbilly]

John DiFool, on 17 January 2012 - 02:32 PM, said:

WTF is your effin' problem?

Baby Jesus hates non sequiturs, and apparently so does TRic.

[jon abbey]

Al Zarilla, on 17 January 2012 - 12:39 PM, said:

Maglie took a similar post for the expansionSeattle Pilots in 1969.

Just in time to feature in 'Ball Four':

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ball_Four

[Rough Carrigan]

Al Zarilla, on 17 January 2012 - 12:39 PM, said:

You're right, I looked up Sal's Wikipedia while you were posting again and here it is:

After two terms (1960–62; 1966–67) as pitching coach of the Boston Red Sox, Maglie took a similar post for the expansionSeattle Pilots in 1969.

I was living in NH and Boston in those years and somehow missed the fact that Sal was the Sox' pitching coach. Dick Williams hogged all the spotlight, I guess, at least in 1967.

I saw Padilla hit Aaron Rowand in the face in 2010 and he sure looked like it wasn't a pitch that "just got away". We'll see how he does with the Red Sox.

One of the good things in Jim Bouton's book, Ball Four, was his puncturing the notion of pitching coaches as having some astounding pearls of wisdom, hardball zen koans, to dispense to their charges. He mocked Jim Turner, the yankees pitching coach in the early 60's for perhaps originating the ridiculous advice to a pitcher in a meeting on the mound of "Don't walk him! . . . . . But don't give him anything to hit!" Yeah, okay coach. Make nothing but perfect pitches. Got it.

I think Bouton said that the Pilots pitchers were talking about Vic Davalillo, a pesky high average, light power leadoff guy on another team. Maglie stepped forward to offer an epiphany that had occurred to him specifically in regard to Davalillo. Throw at his head and then bam!bam!bam!, three pitches right on the low outside corner of the strike zone, said Maglie. Bouton's reaction (not in front of Maglie) was to laugh. If you could throw three pitches in a row right on the black low and outside, why would you need to bother throwing at a hitter in the first place?

Edited by Rough Carrigan, 17 January 2012 - 09:06 PM.

[PedroSpecialK]

Frisbetarian, on 17 January 2012 - 09:17 AM, said:

This signing will be certainly be entertaining, if nothing else. Padilla is a character - Shaughnessy is going to kill him - but I like his history. Did you know that Vincente Padilla is the only U.S. professional athlete to ever test positive for swine flu?

Looks like Boston has a monopoly on swine flu survivors

[Frisbetarian]

PedroSpecialK, on 17 January 2012 - 09:25 PM, said:

Looks like Boston has a monopoly on swine flu survivors

Hmm, it appears that a bunch of professional athletes have contracted H1N1, but mi amigo loco was apparently the first. I really hope he makes the team. If he does, he may become my new favorite Red Sox player.

[Kull]

The Boomer, on 17 January 2012 - 12:18 PM, said:

Padilla sounds more like a "throwback" pitcher who believes that the inner half of the plate is territory that he will fight for.

We'll see how it plays out, but two has gotta be better than one:

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

Badgers! Badgers! we don't need no steenkin badgers!

[someoneanywhere]

Carl Everetts Therapist, on 31 January 2012 - 07:36 AM, said:

Badgers! Badgers! we don't need no steenkin badgers!

Much better, Carl. Now that's using movie dialogue in a way the aficionado can appreciate.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

Thanks I am trying to live up to the standards put forth by our SOSH four fathers...

[OCD SS]

Carl Everetts Therapist, on 31 January 2012 - 07:47 AM, said:

Thanks I am trying to live up to the standards put forth by our SOSH four fathers...

I can't decide if that should get a "well played" or a "face-palm."