69 replies to this topic

[jon abbey]

Seems like the time to start this, here's where we are currently:

Sabathia
Pineda
Nova
Kuroda
Garcia/Burnett/Hughes

Phelps
Warren
Banuelos
Betances

What I'd try to do if I were Cashman from this point is dump Burnett to the NL (trying to get back maybe $10M of the $33M for the two years), move Hughes to the bullpen (likely for good), and sign someone with experience to start the year in AAA as the 6th starter, ahead of the four kids, someone like Dustin Moseley two years ago.

[rembrat]

If anyone wanted AJ he would have been traded by now. He also has a limited no trade clause with the power to block trades up to 10 teams.

I think they give AJ one more shot at it but let him know he is on a short leash. AJ gets #5 and Hughes becomes a 7th inning guy and Garcia is the long man again. When AJ shits the bed they'll rearrange the deck.

When is Joba back?

[jon abbey]

Well, the question with AJ is how much money NY would be willing to swallow, and until this afternoon, he was in NY's top 5 (Noesi 6th). That number will presumably go up now, but you could be right too.

When is Joba back?

Surgery was in June, typical timetable is 10-13 months, so midseason sometime?

[Shaky]

Thoughts on trying to get Adam Dunn for AJ?

AJ is owed 2/33, Dunn is owed 3/44.

The AAV is less for Dunn but the Yankees would be on the hook for a third year, which may be attractive for the White Sox to get out from under. I'm also not adverse to sending AJ over there with a suitcase full of cash.

Dunn is coming off an off-year, which may also grease the wheels a bit.

Edited by Shaky, 14 January 2012 - 01:32 AM.

[ThePrideofShiner]

If anyone wanted AJ he would have been traded by now. He also has a limited no trade clause with the power to block trades up to 10 teams.

I think they give AJ one more shot at it but let him know he is on a short leash. AJ gets #5 and Hughes becomes a 7th inning guy and Garcia is the long man again. When AJ shits the bed they'll rearrange the deck.

When is Joba back?

Hughes will be the sixth inning guy, right? Soriano in the 7th, Robertson in the 8th, Rivera in the 9th.

So, basically, Hughes fills the role Cory Wade provided last season.

[jon abbey]

Hughes can be a FA after 2013, and the Pineda deal seems to make it a lot less likely he'll be around after that. If NY is still serious about being under $189M in 2014, then if Hughes was really good between now and then, they likely wouldn't have the money to sign him, and if he isn't good between now and then, it's not too likely they'd want to keep him around.

[Hee-Seop's Fable]

Hughes can be a FA after 2013, and the Pineda deal seems to make it a lot less likely he'll be around after that. If NY is still serious about being under $189M in 2014, then if Hughes was really good between now and then, they likely wouldn't have the money to sign him, and if he isn't good between now and then, it's not too likely they'd want to keep him around.

Wouldn't they do just as well with Rivera/Soriano/Robertson/Chamberlain/Hughes as the core of their bullpen, with the last four competing to succeed Rivera in '13? I don't buy that $189 is going to drive their decisions. It's a nice goal to shoot for, but winning is a nicer one, isn't it?

[jon abbey]

Wouldn't they do just as well with Rivera/Soriano/Robertson/Chamberlain/Hughes as the core of their bullpen, with the last four competing to succeed Rivera in '13? I don't buy that $189 is going to drive their decisions. It's a nice goal to shoot for, but winning is a nicer one, isn't it?

Yeah, I'm talking about 2014, not 2012. I totally agree with you for 2012.

[Hee-Seop's Fable]

Yeah, I'm talking about 2014, not 2012. I totally agree with you for 2012.

by 2014 both Soriano and Rivera will be gone, so a tandem of their pick of the best two of Hughes, Joba, and Robertson looks pretty good as an early plan this far out.

edit- point being, their staff is so deep right now ML and ml that they can shuffle parts around to fill needs any number of ways and still look damn good now and 2-3 years out.

Edited by Hee-Seop's Fable, 14 January 2012 - 02:07 AM.

[rembrat]

Hughes will be the sixth inning guy, right? Soriano in the 7th, Robertson in the 8th, Rivera in the 9th.

So, basically, Hughes fills the role Cory Wade provided last season.

Forgot about Soriano. I think Girardi finds a way to give both Soriano and Robertson a look at the 8th depending on matchups and workload. Either way that bullpen is deep.

So much pitching. Injuries usually solves this problem.

[Doctor G]

If anyone wanted AJ he would have been traded by now. He also has a limited no trade clause with the power to block trades up to 10 teams.

I think they give AJ one more shot at it but let him know he is on a short leash. AJ gets #5 and Hughes becomes a 7th inning guy and Garcia is the long man again. When AJ shits the bed they'll rearrange the deck.

When is Joba back?

Garcia probably doesn't sign with the Yankees earlier this winter if he knew he was going to be a long man and not a starter. i expect him to be moved as soon as he can be contractually. He can't be happy with his current role.

[rembrat]

I thought he couldnt be traded until June? Is there something new about this in the new CBA?

[MoGator71]

Garcia probably doesn't sign with the Yankees earlier this winter if he knew he was going to be a long man and not a starter. i expect him to be moved as soon as he can be contractually. He can't be happy with his current role.

It's my understanding that a player can be dealt with his permission, and you'd assume Garcia would agree to go if he's unhappy with his role. I still think they'd prefer to move AJ, but of course there's the matter of how much money they'd eat.

[jon abbey]

RAB makes the case/s for Garcia to start the season as the 5th guy:

http://riveraveblues...ter-case-62788/

But really why I bumped this thread was an excuse to quote this:

"The front four of the Yankees rotation is a quartet of hard-throwers. CC Sabathia and Michael Pineda had two of the seven hardest fastballs in all of baseball last season while both Hiroki Kuroda and Ivan Nova averaged better than 92 with the heat (92.1 and 92.4, respectively)."

Opening Day really cannot get here soon enough.

[Brickowski]

Jon, IMHO, your analysis is right on the mark, except that (perhaps irrationally) I'm not willing to give up on Hughes as a starter.

[melonbag]

I also think the Yanks would be better off with Hughes in the 5th spot. This will be an interesting spring training.

Sox fans should be rooting for AJ to win the job.

[jon abbey]

So Burnett is gone (despite my man rem's expert analysis above, heh), and we're down to six candidates for the five spots to start the season. Despite what Girardi said today about only CC and Kuroda being guaranteed spots in the rotation to start the year, I think it's safe to say that barring something crazy, Pineda and Nova will also be in there.

So it's Hughes and Garcia for the 5th spot, and the early signs seem to be that it will be Hughes' job to lose and Garcia will be the long man. Joel Sherman is generally good at reading the pinstriped tea leaves on this kind of thing, his column today:

http://www.nypost.co...WSb9RRjzN7xs8mL

EIther way, easily NY's best rotation on paper since the great purge of 2003, Pineda and Kuroda replacing Burnett and Colon and NY still going six deep. Garcia was NY's 3rd starter in the ALDS, maybe down to 6th before throwing another pitch:

http://www.baseball-...NYY/staff.shtml

[EvilEmpire]

JA - thanks for posting that. Between Hughes and Garcia -- either way the battle for the fifth spot goes, I'm sure the guy left out will still get plenty of innings as a starter. Someone always gets injured.

Weird feeling going into a new season without a sense of dread about the starting pitching. Of course there is still time for something to go wrong.

[Doctor G]

Girardi's Tuesday comments about CC and Kuroda being the only ones with guaranteed spots seems more like a motivational tactic than anything newsworthy. I'm sure Joe G remembers beginning the season with Hughes and Kennedy as kids with guaranteed spots and doesn't want a repeat.

Maybe they don't feel Pineda is working as hard as they would like on the Change-up and the weight loss.

Edited by Doctor G, 29 February 2012 - 11:04 AM.

[jon abbey]

I think he's trying to show some respect for Garcia the veteran also, before inevitably letting three kids aged 23/24/25 start over him.

Pineda has been looking great and is a very hard worker by all reports, we'll get to see him start on Monday on MLBN.

[rembrat]

In my defense, everyone thought AJ was untradable.

Anyways, it's a solid rotation. I put it as 2nd best in the AL East and Top 5 in the entire league.

[derekson]

Personally if I were in charge of the Yankees I think I'd just pencil in Garcia as the #5 guy and put Hughes in the bullpen. Hughes was lights out as a setup guy when he was used in short relief in the past, and he's been all over the place as a starter with no sustained success. Meanwhile Garcia seems like a pretty good bet to give you a chance to win almost every time he's on the mound, especially with the offense the Yankees roll out. In the number 5 slot, especially with the strength the Yankees have added to the front of their rotation, I think I'd rather go with the low variance guy who'll give me some solid innings, while also netting a great reliever out of it. Plus Garcia is probably not going to be especially useful as a reliever if he doesn't make it into the rotation.

As a Red Sox fan, I won't mind seeing the Yankees misuse their resources if they decide to put Hughes in the rotation and make Garcia an overpaid long reliever. But that approach probably has more upside, since Hughes probably has a better shot than Garcia at putting up a year more like Garcia's 2011 season if he can finally put it together over an extended stretch as a starting pitcher. Maybe last year was the kick in the ass that Phil needed to show up in good shape and ready to keep his velocity up as a starter both within games and over the course of the season.

Edited by derekson, 01 March 2012 - 12:58 AM.

[Doctor G]

Garcia signed a contract with 675,000 dollars in performance bonuses based on starts, with a base of 4M. I don't think he will be real enthusiastic about being relegated to long relief. Garcia has appeared in 329 games in 13 years. He has started 327 games. Not too much experience in the bullpen.

Edited by Doctor G, 01 March 2012 - 10:09 AM.

[EvilEmpire]

Whichever way it goes, the Yankees aren't locked into whatever decisions they make in April. Hughes has a lot more upside. It is worth giving him every opportunity to see if he can reach his potential. If he can't cut it in the rotation, Garcia is right there.

[jon abbey]

OK, time to update this given the unexpected Pettitte news:

Sabathia
Kuroda
Pineda
Nova
Hughes/Garcia

Phelps
Mitchell
Warren
Banuelos
Betances

And now Pettitte, that is a lot of options. Maybe Pettitte goes to AA or even A, given the full AAA rotation and their all-road schedule? The A team is in Tampa, the warm weather might make sense, at least to start.

[jon abbey]

It's really hard to figure out what NY is planning if everyone is still healthy once Pettitte is ready. I guess Nova or Hughes becomes the long guy, and Garcia is traded?

I can't imagine them optioning any of Pineda/Nova/Hughes down to AAA. FWIW, Jack Curry this afternoon:

"When Cashman was asked about Pineda starting season at Triple A, he said, "I havent thought about it.""

[jon abbey]

Betances, Phelps, Mitchell and Warren have a combined 34 23 4 4 12 28 pitching line so far this spring, 1.06 ERA, 1.03 WHIP. Those four and Banuelos are the AAA rotation, pretty silly to send one of them back to AA to fit in whoever is the odd man out in NY.

Maybe they will move Mitchell for a roughly equivalent position player to try to keep a bit of flexibility, or maybe they could move Betances to the pen.

[jon abbey]

I'm starting to think that maybe they will actually option Pineda or Nova to AAA to start the season, leave Garcia in the rotation, and put one of the five AAA guys in the Noesi role from last year. I can actually see a case for Pineda (having nothing to do with the way he's pitched) in that he threw 171 innings last year so should probably be kept to around 200 this year and maybe they can manage that a bit if he's in AAA, but he's still ideally the #2 or #3 (behind Pettitte) by the end of the year. Nova was the #2 at the end of last season, it's kind of a crazy situation and Pettitte is only going to make it that much harder.

[terrynever]

I'm starting to think that maybe they will actually option Pineda or Nova to AAA to start the season, leave Garcia in the rotation, and put one of the five AAA guys in the Noesi role from last year. I can actually see a case for Pineda (having nothing to do with the way he's pitched) in that he threw 171 innings last year so should probably be kept to around 200 this year and maybe they can manage that a bit if he's in AAA, but he's still ideally the #2 or #3 (behind Pettitte) by the end of the year. Nova was the #2 at the end of last season, it's kind of a crazy situation and Pettitte is only going to make it that much harder.

Is there any correct way to handle this? You had it right yesterday. Freddy to the bullpen. Sometimes you need a long man in early April. I worry about the emotional impact of going to the minors on Nova and Pineda. Of course, Nova turned it into a positive last summer when he was farmed out with an 8-4 record. He went down and worked on one of his pitches and came back even better than when he left.
We don't know much about Pineda's emotional makeup. Your point about the innings limit is valid. The Post's GAKIII suggests if Pineda draws the short straw, he spends April in Tampa, rather than pitch in the cold weather up north.

What happens when -- and if -- Pettitte returns? Too far in advance to hazard a guess. By then, someone may be hurt or have pitched himself out of the rotation. Or maybe everyone is pitching well. That's the ideal scenario.
Sure is a different problem than they had last April when Hughes was sucking and Nova's ERA was around around 6.00 after his first three starts.

The good news is, Girardi and Cashman are on the same page, as they always seem to be. No interference from the owners. The Boss's meddling is almost a distant memory now.

Edited by terrynever, 30 March 2012 - 09:21 AM.

[jon abbey]

Cashman's philosophy in recent years has always been to make the move that preserves the most flexibility and maximizes the number of future options. This is why we saw Brian Gordon for a few starts last year instead of Phelps or Warren, who were probably almost as ready. But in this case, I think he has more than enough options, and should go with a rotation of CC/Kuroda/Hughes/Pineda/Nova to start the season, with the last three guys on a month-long audition to not be bumped by Pettitte.

Garcia doesn't have almost any bullpen experience, and I can see why Cashman might be worried about the back half of the pen (Garcia, Cory Wade who hasn't looked too good this spring, Logan, and Rapada or Cabral), but I would probably trade Garcia, use one of the AAA guys as the long man (I'd maybe go with Betances, I think NY may be leaning towards DJ Mitchell as the one with the lowest SP ceiling).

But I can also see why it's tempting to keep Garcia, who pitched very well last year and whose velocity is supposedly up this spring, or at least to try to hold onto him to get some value from him in a trade. NY really could use a young outfielder as depth when they do finally move pitching, so maybe Cashman is holding out for that.

[Doctor G]

I'm starting to think that maybe they will actually option Pineda or Nova to AAA to start the season, leave Garcia in the rotation, and put one of the five AAA guys in the Noesi role from last year. I can actually see a case for Pineda (having nothing to do with the way he's pitched) in that he threw 171 innings last year so should probably be kept to around 200 this year and maybe they can manage that a bit if he's in AAA, but he's still ideally the #2 or #3 (behind Pettitte) by the end of the year. Nova was the #2 at the end of last season, it's kind of a crazy situation and Pettitte is only going to make it that much harder.

I agree. I've got to think that Cashman's statement about Pineda not picking up a ball al winter might be the rationale for them sending him down while they try to find a deal to move Garcia to make room for Pettitte. Adam Warren might start off as long man then be optioned back to make room for Pineda. One of the three young pitchers is going to end up in the pen. I would guess it would be Hughes who goes back. They might want the 2010 Phil Hughes but I think they'll go with the 2011 Ivan Nova who was much better.

[terrynever]

Agree with JA that Freddy is tradeable when and if Pettitte returns. Got to showcase the guy in April. Girardi said yesterday you can't ignore Nova's 16 wins last year and that spring training results are never the determining factor. Read between the lines and you have to think Pineda is staying in Tampa to work on his weight and arm strength. But if he blows the Phillies away tonight, the lines blur together even more.

Hughes, Nova and Freddy can be the 3-4-5 guys in April. Ideally, Freddy pitches well and brings something of value in a trade.

Pineda and Pettitte join the rotation at some point in late April or early May. Maybe Hughes goes to the pen, as Doc G suggests. If Hughes pitches well as a starter, he determines his own fate, so he can't bitch if he ends up back in the pen, where things do not seem very solid right now.

[crow216]

I'm starting to think that maybe they will actually option Pineda or Nova to AAA to start the season, leave Garcia in the rotation, and put one of the five AAA guys in the Noesi role from last year. I can actually see a case for Pineda (having nothing to do with the way he's pitched) in that he threw 171 innings last year so should probably be kept to around 200 this year and maybe they can manage that a bit if he's in AAA, but he's still ideally the #2 or #3 (behind Pettitte) by the end of the year. Nova was the #2 at the end of last season, it's kind of a crazy situation and Pettitte is only going to make it that much harder.

The hard part is planning for next year. I think we hit on this already but the Yankees are going to lose Garcia, Pettitte, and Kuroda after this season. Hughes and Nova can't both finish the season in the rotation which means one of them needs to be traded. Then next year, you're short 2 starters because you had to trade Hughes/Nova.

Literally no idea how they can solve this.

Edited by crow216, 30 March 2012 - 10:05 AM.

[terrynever]

Well, in a perfect pinstriped world, Banuelos and Betances excel in AAA this season and join the rotation next year. (That's part of how they get down to $189M payroll by 2014). So we're talking CC, Pineda, Nova/Hughes, Banuelos and Betances in 2013.

No need to trade either Hughes or Nova. Hughes is your insurance in case Betances doesn't advance as scheduled.

With the farm system depth among starting pitchers, this is the area where the Yankees can really save money over the next few seasons.

p.s. -- If Kuroda excels this season, he may not be one and done.

Edited by terrynever, 30 March 2012 - 10:44 AM.

[crow216]

You have to trade Hughes or Nova or dump one of them into the bullpen for the year.

In no order
CC
Pineda
Pettitte
Kuroda
Garcia
Nova
Hughes

Only one of those last 3 can fit into the rotation. What is Girardi supposed to do with the other two? Mix that with the fact that the offense could use a boost, I see April as a tryout for Nova and Hughes to see who can get the team the best offensive player.

[jon abbey]

Jack Curry (Yankee employee) agrees with moving Garcia to the pen now:

http://www.myyesnetw...rcia_in_bullpen

[terrynever]

Jack Curry (Yankee employee) agrees with moving Garcia to the pen now:

http://www.myyesnetw...rcia_in_bullpen

The one thing about working for the team you're reporting on is you get better access to fellow employees than a neutral reporter like Joel Sherman would get. If Girardi trusts Curry, he is going to leak stuff to Jack, or use him as a messenger. Reporters like leaks. They don't like to be manipulated.

[jon abbey]

Pineda pitching on YES against the Phillies now, and if you read between the lines of what Girardi is saying, he is basically pitching for his job to start the season. I hate that they're pushing Pineda to ramp things up quicker than he might otherwise, pretty short-sighted.

[jon abbey]

Pineda very underwhelming through 2, mostly at 90-92 with one 94 that I saw, but a lot of flat fastballs and six baserunners in two innings. He's down 2-0 and it could have been more if Martin hadn't thrown out two guys trying to steal.

[derekson]

Pineda looks terrible. Still sitting 91 with his fastball. He's thrown a few nice sliders, but his control doesn't look great either.

He's at 53 pitches with 2 outs in the 3rd against the Phillies.

Edited by derekson, 30 March 2012 - 06:59 PM.

[derekson]

Cone's making an interesting point about Pineda. He says Pineda is getting around the 4 seamer and basically making it into a cutter. In the 3rd inning here some of Pineda's fastballs have been down to 88-89 even too.

[soxhop411]

6 runs...... Something is up with him

[derekson]

I think it's safe to say Pineda's starting the season in AAA after tonight. 6 runs in 2 2/3 innings on 71 pitches.

[AMS25]

I think it's safe to say Pineda's starting the season in AAA after tonight. 6 runs in 2 2/3 innings on 71 pitches.

Yes, just saw that he was getting hammered.... Before this, was he making any progress? Above, Jon Abbey had suggested that optioning Pineda to AAA was a possibility....

[terrynever]

I think it's safe to say Pineda's starting the season in AAA after tonight. 6 runs in 2 2/3 innings on 71 pitches.

He'll stay in Tampa and pitch with the minor leaguers. They don't want him pitching up north in cold weather this month.

Boy, was he awful tonight. Bad body language from the moment Juan Pierre singled on the second pitch of the first inning. Pettitte's sitting on the bench next to Girardi. Seems like Pineda got overwhelmed by the competition this spring.

Flaherty says his motion is screwed up, too.

[Sampo Gida]

Thought I would bump this with another bad outing by Hughes and the bad news about Pineda.

If Garcia or Hughes gets back on track, they should be ok with Pettitte coming back, otherwise, what looked to be a strength might be a weakness.

Yankees seem to have bad luck with young starting pitching. Hughes, Joba and now Pineda. And whats up with the killer B's, haven't really been following them but I see awful ERA's from Banuelos and Betances. Is Banuelos on the DL? Only 2 starts. Does not look like they will help this year if needed.

[jon abbey]

Yeah, I meant to bump this too. You've pretty much covered it, Banuelos is on the AAA DL with a minor back issue, Betances has been terrible, Warren and Mitchell have been up and down, and Phelps is pitching long relief for NY.

[melonbag]

If Garcia or Hughes gets back on track, they should be ok with Pettitte coming back, otherwise, what looked to be a strength might be a weakness.

Yankees seem to have bad luck with young starting pitching. Hughes, Joba and now Pineda. And whats up with the killer B's, haven't really been following them but I see awful ERA's from Banuelos and Betances. Is Banuelos on the DL? Only 2 starts. Does not look like they will help this year if needed.

Yep, it's a yo yo situation. First the starting pitching was terrible. Then it was good. Then Pineda was a huge upgrade. Then they had too many quality SP's, especially with the return of PettiTTe. Then Hughes and Garcia start off slower than expected. Now Pineda is shelved.

[crow216]

I see Garcia as the odd-man out. Hughes should get another couple of starts before sending him to the bullpen for good. His stuff is there in very small flashes right now but he can't command it. That should be expected for someone who hasn't really started in a year. Being that we now know Pineda won't be starting with the rotation next year they only have 2 starters locked down. Sabathia, Nova, Hughes, and .....Phelps/Banuelos/Betances? If you send Hughes to the bullpen, you're removing any chance he starts next year.

Edited by crow216, 26 April 2012 - 01:40 PM.

[jon abbey]

2013 really isn't a concern right now, there will presumably be other Kuroda-like stopgaps available, including possibly both Pettitte and Kuroda again.

DJ Mitchell, who almost made the club out of spring training, is doing better in AAA than I thought, holding hitters to a .165 BA through 4 starts. He is probably the #7 guy right now (behind Pettitte, ahead of Phelps who isn't stretched out). If Hughes goes to the bullpen, Phelps may go back to AAA to try to get stretched out as the #6 guy.

Also, Hughes is old enough now (26 in two months) that I think it would be less of a risk to keep him in the pen for the bulk of this year and then move him back to the rotation next year if they wanted.