49 replies to this topic

[MakMan44]

Tonight we saw the Yankees go out and make two huge moves to bolster their rotation while the most we have done tonight is sign Sweeney to a contract. To date the best options outside of Beckett, Lester and Bucholz for our rotation is Cook and maybe Bard. Clearly the Red Sox need to make a move to bolster their rotation but I doubt they can pull a move like either one of ones the Yankees made.

[Tyrone Biggums]

Odd place to put this...but the Sox absolutely can. The only thing that counts is the standings after game 162, if that means the Sox can get more out of dreck such as Cook Silva or whomever than the Yankees can out of Kuroda, then they have responded accordingly. They just have to spend wiser, the issue here of course is that the Sox haven't really spent that much this year. Although, I will say that the Sox have drastically improved their bullpen.

[MakMan44]

Well I didn't really know where else to put it but I did want to discuss what the Yankees moves meant for the Red Sox. Anyway, I really don't feel comfortable going into the season hoping that Silva or Cook will pull a magical season out of wherever and guide the Sox to the playoffs. We need a serviceable 4th starter and I just don't see either one of those two being that guy. Obviously a better option would be someone like EJax or Oswalt but that goes back to my original point, can the Sox even get someone like that to respond to the Yankees and what can they do if they can't?

Edited by MakMan44, 13 January 2012 - 09:48 PM.

[untilthebombs]

If they're hoping to respond in headlines, no.

The AL East was always going to be a dogfight. Once the shock is over, the situation is really not so different from what it was yesterday. It takes a team to win out the long slug that is the baseball season. Two players rarely set a monumental shift in outcome.

Only one team wins it all, so for now, if I had to place a bet, the Yankees are new 2011 Red Sox; the paper team anointed World Series champs before the season's start that disappoints.

[Towney007]

Pineda is a good pitcher, but that .252 BABIP and 44 FB% mean he's likely going to regress. He was about league average in HR/FB% in Safeco, so I can see him having an interesting go of it at Yankee Stadium on days where the wind is blowing out.

The Kuroda stroking is a product of a thin market, not many available options and two cataclysmically stupid press corps in NYC and Boston who are twitching out of not having a big story to write. Good pitcher, no signs of decline yet but yeah - he's 38. 1-3, I the Red Sox are better.

I *really* hope the Red Sox don't go ballistic and loaf out some dumb deal for Oswalt or Jackson. Nab a Francis, and they'll probably be fine.

[MikeM]

Heh, figured this was coming as soon as i saw the Yanks inked Kuroda.

Heh, can't wait to see next offseason in the event we don't have a perfect year, when the reality that we can't spend like the MFY REALLY sinks it's teeth back in here. Should make for some pretty interesting speculation on whether or not Adrian Gonzalez's contract was ultimately a good idea, or a luxury type contract that hinders more then it helps given the flexibility we seemingly have to work with.

Or at least that's where my mind has been taking me these last few days. I may have been first in line expecting to too see the budget crunch, but yeah.....this counting every penny stuff, on one year freaking flyer possibilities no less, pretty much sucks. I also don't see any way a Matt Cain type realistically makes it on any final roster here next year without that specific shakeup. Two $20m/per contracts at LF/1B already, and Lackey on top of that to boot, is just too heavy at the base.

Damn, we really need one of these flyers to hit big this year. Or for Bard to turn into our CJ Wilson lol.

[amlothi]

It's not appropriate to frame a discussion in this way. Your assumption is that there is a need for the Red Sox to respond to what the Yankees do. There's over 140 regular season games where the Sox will play other teams. Do we have "Can the Red Sox respond to the Angels?" or "Can the Red Sox respond to the Marlins?" threads? No, we don't. There's a good reason why.

The Sox should be focused on building a strong team this year and in the future. They shouldn't be saying "We need to sign a pitcher because the Yankees did." That doesn't make any sense. They also should not be spending their resources trying to "one up" the Yankees (or any other team specifically) in the media.

Perhaps this thread should be "What should the Red Sox do to make their team stronger, in light of the fact that the AL East will be very competitive and other teams have (on paper) improved themselves?"

[wine111]

Heh, figured this was coming as soon as i saw the Yanks inked Kuroda.

Heh, can't wait to see next offseason in the event we don't have a perfect year, when the reality that we can't spend like the MFY REALLY sinks it's teeth back in here. Should make for some pretty interesting speculation on whether or not Adrian Gonzalez's contract was ultimately a good idea, or a luxury type contract that hinders more then it helps given the flexibility we seemingly have to work with.

Or at least that's where my mind has been taking me these last few days. I may have been first in line expecting to too see the budget crunch, but yeah.....this counting every penny stuff, on one year freaking flyer possibilities no less, pretty much sucks. I also don't see any way a Matt Cain type realistically makes it on any final roster here next year without that specific shakeup. Two $20m/per contracts at LF/1B already, and Lackey on top of that to boot, is just too heavy at the base.

Damn, we really need one of these flyers to hit big this year. Or for Bard to turn into our CJ Wilson lol.

The Yankees should win the division. A Rod is healthy again and the Yankees go five deep with C.C. Sabathia, Ivan Nova,
Michael Pineda, Hiroki Kuroda and Freddy Garcia, Phil Hughes or A.J. Burnett. I knew there was no way the Yankees were
going to stand pat with the rotation they had. The Rays look like the second place team with Shields, Price, Hellickson,
Matt Moore.and Wade Davis or Jeff Neimann. Again, five deep.

The Red Sox are hoping that Josh Beckett avoids his pattern of having a bad year after a good year. They also have
to hope that C.B. is healthy this year. Even if both of them come through, the Red Sox basically go three deep with a
disadvantage versus both the Yankees and the Rays in the fourth and fifth starter roles. Bard and Aceves are totally
unproven as starters and it would be easy to project them as underperfoming the #4 and #5 of the Yankees and Rays,
as both teams have proven MLB starters in their #4 and #5 rotation spots (with the exception of Matt Moore, who has
devestating stuff and may pitch more like a #2 rather than a #4 or a #5 for the Rays).

The Sox bullpen without Aceves and Bard will rely heavily on Bailey and Melancon, who have yet to prove they can be
consistently effective against A.L. East hitters (Melancon's brief time with the Yankees is not proof that he will suceed in
a key bullpen role in Boston and Bailey is injury prone and pitched many games in Oakland's very pitcher friendly ball
park). I think Cook and Padilla are long shots to make the rotation and are not likely to be very effective if they do.
Please, no more Wakefield.

We need a capable, effective #4 pitcher this year. Edwin Jackson may be back on the radar as the Yankees are likely
done adding starting pitching this offseason. But he will likely have to come down to $9 or $10 million per year for a
maximum of two years for the Sox to sign him. Wandy Rodriguez can be had in a trade and Houston may now be willing
to pay $1 or $2 million per year of Rodriguez's remaining contract. We were lulled into a false sense of security by the
Yankees not being aggressive this offseason. Now, they have taken decisive action and put us in our (third) place.

Edited by wine111, 14 January 2012 - 07:22 PM.

[amlothi]

We were lulled into a false sense of security by the
Yankees not being aggressive this offseason. Now, they have taken decisive action and put us in our (third) place.

You seriously think that the Sox had a deal somewhere that the didn't make because they thought to themselves "Hmmm, the Yankees aren't doing anything, so there's really no need for us to try to improve"?

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

It really all depends on which glass you're drinking out of. Either the MFY's acquired a young, hard throwing pitcher with great stuff and a proven pitcher who can eat innings, or they acquired an unproven youngster who hasn't pitched in the AL East and a guy who's pitched A LOT and is on the wrong side of 35. At first glance this looks like the Skanks front office doing it again making a really smart move (including someone we were "after") while our FO sits idly by twidling there thumbs trying to get us on board with the "buy low" perspective. Once it sinks in well, it is what it is, the MFY's got a little better yesterday. On paper.

[JulioEdgarScutaro]

Anyone heard what Jaime Moyer's status is for the upcoming season? I believe he said before missing all of last season that he was hoping to come back in 2012. He'd certainly come cheap, which seems to be a primary factor in filling out the rotation, and might be able to give them a little more than the Cooks and Silvas they've been picking up lately, provided he's made a full recovery from Tommy John surgery.

[ivanvamp]

The 2011 Red Sox, as of September 1, were in first place in the AL East and were on pace to win 99 games. We know what happened in September, but really, this baseball team was basically as good as it gets for the first 5 months of the season.

They had some surprisingly good performances (Beckett was better than he normally is, Ellsbury was off the charts), but they also did that dealing with some real ugly performances (Lackey, Crawford, JD Drew) and some serious injuries (Youkilis, Buchholz).

Is it crazy to think that the roster, as currently constituted, can win 95-98 games? No, it's not crazy at all. There will be guys that have down years and there will be guys that have surprisingly good years. But this team is extremely talented. As is, they are capable of winning the division. Yes, really, they are.

That said, it really is frustrating to see the box that Theo put them in financially, and the impact that has had on their ability to manipulate the roster this offseason.

[Tyrone Biggums]

I think the way the team is presently constructed, on paper we are looking at a 92 win team. This is based on Papelbon leaving and Bailey going down with an injury at some point. This is a +2 win improvement over the 2011 squad, not insane but not out of the question given the moves the Jays and Yankees have made. Also Crawford will improve and Ellsbury will decline a little, which should negate any difference between the two players stats. The Red Sox should not respond to headlines, they responded to headlines pre 2004 and look at what happened. If they only have 8 million to play with then it needs to be spent wisely, you don't want to get in a situation like 2010 where we had absolutely no room to take on any payroll at the trade deadline.

[Tyrone Biggums]

The 2011 Red Sox, as of September 1, were in first place in the AL East and were on pace to win 99 games. We know what happened in September, but really, this baseball team was basically as good as it gets for the first 5 months of the season.

They had some surprisingly good performances (Beckett was better than he normally is, Ellsbury was off the charts), but they also did that dealing with some real ugly performances (Lackey, Crawford, JD Drew) and some serious injuries (Youkilis, Buchholz).

Is it crazy to think that the roster, as currently constituted, can win 95-98 games? No, it's not crazy at all. There will be guys that have down years and there will be guys that have surprisingly good years. But this team is extremely talented. As is, they are capable of winning the division. Yes, really, they are.

That said, it really is frustrating to see the box that Theo put them in financially, and the impact that has had on their ability to manipulate the roster this offseason.

Its not crazy, but you have to look at the fact the entire division improved (I would argue that Boston did improve also) and take into consideration that the Jays won't have Frank Francisco/Jon Rauch blowing games for them this year...The Yankees with their moves...Tampa (Young Pitching has another year of seasoning) and Baltimore is a 75 win team in any other division. This is the best division top to bottom in baseball.

The two best moves that the Red Sox never made in Theo's tenure

1) A-Rod deal falling through
2) Walking away from Teixeria (Depending who you ask, they either could have closed the deal in Texas or he was always going to MFY, however, he hasn't performed up to his on lofty reputation the last two seasons)

Edited by Tyrone Biggums, 14 January 2012 - 10:12 AM.

[ivanvamp]

Its not crazy, but you have to look at the fact the entire division improved (I would argue that Boston did improve also) and take into consideration that the Jays won't have Frank Francisco/Jon Rauch blowing games for them this year...The Yankees with their moves...Tampa (Young Pitching has another year of seasoning) and Baltimore is a 75 win team in any other division. This is the best division top to bottom in baseball.

Plus Texas is still great and LAA has improved with the addition of a couple of pretty good players. It's going to be a bloodbath for the playoffs this year, but the Sox do have tons of talent. Can Valentine get the most out of them? We'll find out.

Here's what I see:

Players with worse 2012 seasons than they had in 2011
- Ellsbury - how can he not? Dude was unreal last year. I think he'll be "really good" in 2012, which will be a step back from "superhuman" last year.
- Beckett - I don't see a sub-3.00 era from him this year.
- Ortiz

Players with better 2012 seasons than they had in 2012
- Crawford - I see him being more like the "normal" Crawford. The guy has a proven track record of being really good. I cannot believe he's just lost it.
- Buchholz - he was fine last year except for the injuries. I see 15 wins and an era in the low 3's
- Youkilis - see Buchholz

By position
C - Salty will continue to improve; Shoppach is better than 'Tek; Lavarnway can hit
1b - Gonzo will be great, without the power fade he had in 2011. I see 35+ hr this year.
2b - Pedroia is Pedroia
SS - Scutaro is Scutaro
3b - Youkilis should bounce back from injury
LF - Crawford improves
CF - Ellsbury declines but only into the "really good" level
RF - they had one of the worst years of production from the RF position last year...cannot help but improve, possibly considerably
DH - I expect a decline from Papi, unfortunately

Rotation
- Beckett should be ok, not as good as last year, but not his typical even year disaster
- Lester I think will have a big year
- Buchholz I already talked about
- Aceves - I think he won't be as effective as he was as a reliever last year, but he should be ok
- Bard - I think he'll actually be a very good starter, but he won't be able to pitch more than 150 innings. So in August, I think they back off him and put him in the bullpen, just as Dice-K is ready to return. It gives them a fresh rotation arm and bolsters the bullpen at the same time.

Bullpen
- Bailey is really good, but unfortunately you can't count on him for more than 40-50 innings.
- Melancon is a good pitcher, but I am nervous about him in the AL East.....but I think he'll be fine when all is said and done.
- Morales - I like this guy and think he can be a nice weapon.
- Atchison/Albers - not remotely the same pitcher, but each is a veteran that has some ability, but neither guy makes you real comfortable in big spots

[MakMan44]

It's not appropriate to frame a discussion in this way. Your assumption is that there is a need for the Red Sox to respond to what the Yankees do. There's over 140 regular season games where the Sox will play other teams. Do we have "Can the Red Sox respond to the Angels?" or "Can the Red Sox respond to the Marlins?" threads? No, we don't. There's a good reason why.

The Sox should be focused on building a strong team this year and in the future. They shouldn't be saying "We need to sign a pitcher because the Yankees did." That doesn't make any sense. They also should not be spending their resources trying to "one up" the Yankees (or any other team specifically) in the media.

Perhaps this thread should be "What should the Red Sox do to make their team stronger, in light of the fact that the AL East will be very competitive and other teams have (on paper) improved themselves?"

The only reason I posted it as such is because the Yankees have a better rotation (on paper) than the Sox. We will always be fighting the Angels, Rangers etc for the wild card. To win the division however (which doesn't require a fight against 3-5 teams at the end of every year) we need to compete with the Yankees moves. So I thought it would be important to discuss what could possibly be done to do such.

[MakMan44]

You seriously think that the Sox had a deal somewhere that the didn't make because they thought to themselves "Hmmm, the Yankees aren't doing anything, so there's really no need for us to try to improve"?

I got that as more of a fan feeling that the Yankees aren't doing anything so we still have a shot at winning the division with our rotation.

[untilthebombs]

Good reflection up at Red Sox Beacon.

[Towney007]

Or at least that's where my mind has been taking me these last few days. I may have been first in line expecting to too see the budget crunch, but yeah.....this counting every penny stuff, on one year freaking flyer possibilities no less, pretty much sucks. I also don't see any way a Matt Cain type realistically makes it on any final roster here next year without that specific shakeup. Two $20m/per contracts at LF/1B already, and Lackey on top of that to boot, is just too heavy at the base.

Damn, we really need one of these flyers to hit big this year. Or for Bard to turn into our CJ Wilson lol.

I wouldn't go that far. Ortiz and Dice-K will be coming off the books, meaning the team's payroll will dip another $20 million or so. Plus Youk is heading into an option year with Scooter coming off the books as well. So you're looking at around $40 million coming off the books. I think if they want to spend big on a pitcher, they'll have the chance, even if they extend Ellsbury.

[pdub]

Assuming they have around $40M to play with, I could definitely see them make a play for a big-name pitcher. You figure Ellsbury will probably get $20M a year, so that brings you another $20M left over. I'm going to assume that we will not re-sign Ortiz, Matsuzaka, or Scutaro.

[ivanvamp]

Assuming they have around $40M to play with, I could definitely see them make a play for a big-name pitcher. You figure Ellsbury will probably get $20M a year, so that brings you another $20M left over. I'm going to assume that we will not re-sign Ortiz, Matsuzaka, or Scutaro.

I hope they don't re-sign any of those three guys for 2013.

[BeantownIdaho]

Pineda is a good pitcher, but that .252 BABIP and 44 FB% mean he's likely going to regress. He was about league average in HR/FB% in Safeco, so I can see him having an interesting go of it at Yankee Stadium on days where the wind is blowing out.

The Kuroda stroking is a product of a thin market, not many available options and two cataclysmically stupid press corps in NYC and Boston who are twitching out of not having a big story to write. Good pitcher, no signs of decline yet but yeah - he's 38. 1-3, I the Red Sox are better.

I *really* hope the Red Sox don't go ballistic and loaf out some dumb deal for Oswalt or Jackson. Nab a Francis, and they'll probably be fine.

What is dumb about a 1/8 mil for Oswalt? Nab Francis and they will "probably" be fine? I would much rather sign Oswalt AND Padilla for much needed depth and a possible pen role for Padilla if in fact he is hitting 96. Add to that Mats coming in mid-season and I think the sox are loaded with potential and depth in the pitching department. Not sure why you WOULDN"T do that. What was dumb was siging Punto before the trade with the Rockies.

[ivanvamp]

I have said all along I want a one-year Oswalt deal. Makes a ton of sense, baseball-wise. Financially, who knows what the Sox really want to commit to? But I cannot imagine that he wouldn't really help this team.

[MikeM]

I wouldn't go that far. Ortiz and Dice-K will be coming off the books, meaning the team's payroll will dip another $20 million or so. Plus Youk is heading into an option year with Scooter coming off the books as well. So you're looking at around $40 million coming off the books. I think if they want to spend big on a pitcher, they'll have the chance, even if they extend Ellsbury.

Youk's option year basically pushes on the money Ortiz's hypothetically frees up, and you have to apply the term "frees up" there rather loosly given the potential hole that's being created in the process. That's not exactly dead money we are talking about there. Add in the continued rising cost of backloaded contracts, arby raises, plus the general costs (both expected and unexpected) that plays in the adequate attempt of fielding a playoff worthy 25 man roster, and in the the grander scheme of things i don't see next winter being all that much different then this one.

Plus i truely believe that while this winter's theme was all about relearning the reality that we do indeed operate under a budget, next winter is going to be all about shattering the seemingly overwheming perception here that the MLB's luxury tax threshhold is decided in a courtesy phone call to John Henry every winter. I never did quite get the absolute conncetion people insist on making there, as if Bud Selig and co are the ones dictating our finances, and we were just "holding way back" all those years while spending at a fairly consistent level. An extra $40m on our annual payroll? No problem, as this MLB-issued piece of paper clearly states that as being in our long term reality budget.

Idk, that potential elephant in the room isn't going away just because choose to ignore, or more specifically, downplay it. That people are still reaching for the "it's all about staying under the cap this year" card/excuse to conveniently explain away this winter's commitment to spending is getting kinda silly imo. Ben is having a great winter imo, but necessity is the driving choice behind the type of decisions he is making atm, and a lot more so then having any choice in the matter imo. None of which (and as a whole mind you) is suggesting to me that we are just a wee >< bit over-budget, and we are simply choosing not to spend that extra couple million on a Kudoda because we've reached some drastically absolute line that crosses out of a comfort zone we are currently residing in.

*shrug* Ultimately, i just don't see this team/ownership fielding a team potentially consisting of three $20m/per players, much less being consistently willing to field this current payroll level over the next 6-7 years. I believe we are significantly over where this ownership wants to be on payroll (with Theo doing a real number on us last winter), that ongoing adjustments to get that down are going to be an extended process that extends beyond this winter, and exploring concepts such as "how ideal is it for us to be investing $21m/per at firstbase?" is probably going to be a big part of the potential equation in how we make it all work going forward imo.

Flexibility is key, and absolutely crucial in any equation that has us consistently competing with the MFY. You are unavoidable going to have winters like this, but they really really need to be the exception there, and most certainly can not become the general rule.

Edited by MikeM, 14 January 2012 - 02:08 PM.

[MikeM]

I think the way the team is presently constructed, on paper we are looking at a 92 win team.

This is basically where i'm at as well, reguardless of what we realistically go on to do with the backend of our rotation atm. Seeing Kuroda sign elsewhere just sucks because it's the MFY, which serves to highlight the step backwards we've taken from the competetive balance standpoint.

But let's be clear here though, it's not like i ever felt for a second that the difference between Kuroda and what we alternatively end up doing is going to be the make or break factor of our season.

[BeantownIdaho]

Jenks, Mats, Scutaro, Ortiz, Youks = potentially 45 mil coming off the books....however you also have to replace those spots. Doubtful that we have the pieces internally to replace all of those spots (at least next year).

[untilthebombs]

Lavarnway at DH and Middlebrooks at 3B would replace Ortiz and Youk at little cost. Not worried about replacing Jenks since there's nothing to replace at this point. If there's mutual interest Dice-K could probably be br

[untilthebombs]

Brought back on a 1 year deal on the cheap.

[LeoCarrillo]

Kuroda, given his age, ballpark switch and NL to AL factor, looks like a very good inning-eating No. 4. Just as he would have been for the Sox. Is a No. 4 pitcher worth $14M-$15M after the luxury hit? Apparently only in the Bronx, where he will ride the offense to 16 wins or so. It's the luxury of certainty that Ben's bosses have decided they're not willing to pay for this season. They'll save the $14M and take some chances, figuring at worst we're still probably a Wild Card.

For years, the MFY have been buying their way into the playoffs. So, they likely just bought the division again. Rah-f'ing-rah. I don't see Kuroda being a difference maker in the postseason (where the MFY have been predictably doomed in the ALDS lately b/c of meh starters beyond CC). I'm far more concerned about Pineda becoming another ace, giving them a 1-2 that could send them deep into the playoffs.

[TOleary25]

Youk's option year basically pushes on the money Ortiz's hypothetically frees up, and you have to apply the term "frees up" there rather loosly given the potential hole that's being created in the process. That's not exactly dead money we are talking about there. Add in the continued rising cost of backloaded contracts, arby raises, plus the general costs (both expected and unexpected) that plays in the adequate attempt of fielding a playoff worthy 25 man roster, and in the the grander scheme of things i don't see next winter being all that much different then this one.

Not all of these things go against the luxury tax because it is based on the Average Annual Value. Youk already has a AAV around $11 mil and I believe club options are included in that AAV. He already makes that money, so I don't why you think he is taking Ortiz's money next year. Backloaded contracts also don't effect luxury tax because of the AAV. They obviously go against payroll year to year, but the Sox don't really have many contracts that are backloaded. Arbitration is the only one that will go against the luxury tax, with Ellsbury and Salty probably having the biggest impact. So there's a good amount of money coming off the books, but the Sox will have to figure out if prospects are ready and what they're doing with Ellsbury when he becomes a free agent.

Edited by TOleary25, 14 January 2012 - 06:05 PM.

[untilthebombs]

Nice to see nothing but level-headed responses in here.

[Towney007]

Oswalt doesn't make sense for the Red Sox because they don't want to pay for him.

The Red Sox don't make sense for Roy Oswalt because if he's looking at a one-year deal, there are way better places for him to go where he can get more money up front, have just good a shot at winning a pennant and a better chance of putting up better numbers, thus increasing the chances of him getting another multi-year deal.

Right now - the Red Sox and Roy Oswalt don't make sense for each other. It's really not complicated. You don't have to sell me on him improving the team. Of course he would. You don't have to sell me on him bouncing back. I think he will. But the Red Sox not being willing to pay matched with there likely being better options for Oswalt means this doesn't match up. He'd be nice to have. If his price comes down, I hope they consider him. But I don't think it will come that.

[Tyrone Biggums]

Oswalt doesn't make sense for the Red Sox because they don't want to pay for him.

The Red Sox don't make sense for Roy Oswalt because if he's looking at a one-year deal, there are way better places for him to go where he can get more money up front, have just good a shot at winning a pennant and a better chance of putting up better numbers, thus increasing the chances of him getting another multi-year deal.

Right now - the Red Sox and Roy Oswalt don't make sense for each other. It's really not complicated. You don't have to sell me on him improving the team. Of course he would. You don't have to sell me on him bouncing back. I think he will. But the Red Sox not being willing to pay matched with there likely being better options for Oswalt means this doesn't match up. He'd be nice to have. If his price comes down, I hope they consider him. But I don't think it will come that.

Unless you are drinking the Sox will finish in 3rd or 4th Kool Aid and should rebuild now, how doesn't Roy Oswalt make sense? 8 million for him is an absolute steal.

[soxhop411]

Unless you are drinking the Sox will finish in 3rd or 4th Kool Aid and should rebuild now, how doesn't Roy Oswalt make sense? 8 million for him is an absolute steal.

i think what he means, is that oswalt is seeking a one year deal (ala beltre) so he can prove he is healthy and get a large contract next offseason. and say there are two teams who are offering him a contract (the sox and another team) and the money is the same, i would think oswalt would rather go in the easier league so he can get a bigger paycheck next offseason

[MikeM]

Not all of these things go against the luxury tax because it is based on the Average Annual Value. Youk already has a AAV around $11 mil and I believe club options are included in that AAV. He already makes that money, so I don't why you think he is taking Ortiz's money next year. Backloaded contracts also don't effect luxury tax because of the AAV. They obviously go against payroll year to year, but the Sox don't really have many contracts that are backloaded. Arbitration is the only one that will go against the luxury tax, with Ellsbury and Salty probably having the biggest impact. So there's a good amount of money coming off the books, but the Sox will have to figure out if prospects are ready and what they're doing with Ellsbury when he becomes a free agent.

I get all that. Again, i just don't see the same absolute relationship existing between whatever MLB sets the luxury threshhold at, and what this Red Sox Fo ideally wants to be spend on payroll every year. And given my belief that we are already starting from a point outside and above this FO's comfort zone to begin with, i don't see the AAV figure being as important there as it might be otherwise. Don't get me wrong there, as the AAV does matter, just not as much as the real money total we are responsible for payingout in the here and now imo.

At quick 2013 glace i see both Buchholz and Pedroia's contracts calling for a $2m raise, Lester getting another $4m, and Youk gets an extra million ( hypothetically assuming we pick up his option). That's an extra $9m of real money right there, which roughly puts us at a $120m for the 10 players we'll still have under guarenteed contracts (one of which is Jose Iglesias btw).That's before factoring in benefits, a single case of arb eligibility, or any move we may or may not decide on while filling out the rest of our roster.

Like we are seeing this winter, even with contracts such as Ortiz and Matsuzaka coming off the books, it adds up quick nowadays.

Edited by MikeM, 15 January 2012 - 12:36 AM.

[MikeM]

Lavarnway at DH and Middlebrooks at 3B would replace Ortiz and Youk at little cost.

In terms of body replacement/s, sure. Projecting them to be capable of replacing Ortiz/Youk's current level of production.......that's quite another story atm and imo.

Funny you bring up potentially needing a replacement for both though, as that is a rarely hit upon possibility, yet a scenario with a decent chance to play itself out imo. I mean i'm already expecting a decline out of Ortiz, but seeing Youk's career start to go to shit at 33 wouldn't exactly shock me either. Not enough that i'd see that as a potential reason to hand Ortiz a 2 year contract though, which i think would be pretty stupid to do atm.

[ivanvamp]

In terms of body replacement/s, sure. Projecting them to be capable of replacing Ortiz/Youk's current level of production.......that's quite another story atm and imo.

Funny you bring up potentially needing a replacement for both though, as that is a rarely hit upon possibility, yet a scenario with a decent chance to play itself out imo. I mean i'm already expecting a decline out of Ortiz, but seeing Youk's career start to go to shit at 33 wouldn't exactly shock me either. Not enough that i'd see that as a potential reason to hand Ortiz a 2 year contract though, which i think would be pretty stupid to do atm.

There is no DH out there that comes close to replacing Ortiz. I think you could "replace" him by keeping Youkilis and adding a 3b. Among Youks, Gonzo, and the new 3b, you have 3 guys that play two fielding positions, plus the DH. It would reduce the wear and tear on both Youkilis and Gonzalez, which would increase their production. It would also give them a lot of versatility.

Bring up Middlebrooks, let him take the time to adjust, and hopefully he hits 15 hr and puts up a .780 ops at 3b. Wouldn't be great, but wouldn't be bad either. Then, come National League parks (both in the regular season and playoffs), you just have Youkilis play 3b and let Middlebrooks be a bench guy.

Last 2 sesons:
Youks: .280/.391/.507/.898, 137 ops+
Ortiz: .290/.384/.542/.926, 145 ops+

So it's pretty comparable if you slide Youks into Ortiz' spot. It would save about $12 million as well, which frees up cash for another position.

[keyalyn]

At quick 2013 glace i see both Buchholz and Pedroia's contracts calling for a $2m raise, Lester getting another $4m, and Youk gets an extra million ( hypothetically assuming we pick up his option). That's an extra $9m of real money right there, which roughly puts us at a $120m for the 10 players we'll still have under guarenteed contracts (one of which is Jose Iglesias btw).That's before factoring in benefits, a single case of arb eligibility, or any move we may or may not decide on while filling out the rest of our roster.

Like we are seeing this winter, even with contracts such as Ortiz and Matsuzaka coming off the books, it adds up quick nowadays.

Seeing a $15M or so raise with existing contracts and arbitration is normal, but the raises this season were significantly more than that. Gonzalez alone saw a $15M raise, which combine with the other raises left them with virtually no room to work with. Massive raises like with Gonzalez dont happen too often, so seeing everything add up as quickly as it did this offseason wont happen every year.

With Ellsbury likely to be the only player over the next 2-3 years to see a significant arb hit, and many of the contracts coming off the books next season looking relatively easy to replace with cheaper, in-house options, and no gigantic Gonzalez-like contract raise, next offseason doesn't look to be as dire as this offseason with regards to the payroll increasing without making any additions. They wont be able to go on a massive spending spree to bring in a bunch of top-flight FA (nor should they), but they won't be in a position where a 1 year $10M deal is risy and too expensive for them.

Edited by keyalyn, 15 January 2012 - 09:52 AM.

[LostinNJ]

To answer the original question: no, they can't respond to the Yankees' moves and stay under the luxury tax threshold. So they need to move some salary first. This is where Theo comes in: the compensation should be that the Cubs take on one salary that's a drag on the Red Sox right now (Jenks, say, but there are other candidates) in return for minor league filler, thus freeing up salary room to go after someone like Oswalt.

[untilthebombs]

Per a Gammons tweet two days ago, they're already over the threshold. It's just a matter if a pitcher's asking price dropping to the right point, assuming they're interested.

[MakMan44]

To answer the original question: no, they can't respond to the Yankees' moves and stay under the luxury tax threshold. So they need to move some salary first. This is where Theo comes in: the compensation should be that the Cubs take on one salary that's a drag on the Red Sox right now (Jenks, say, but there are other candidates) in return for minor league filler, thus freeing up salary room to go after someone like Oswalt.

Well if Jenks bounces back well enough, he could be an important part of our bullpen this year. I like the idea but has their ever been a case where compensation worked that way?

[MakMan44]

Per a Gammons tweet two days ago, they're already over the threshold. It's just a matter if a pitcher's asking price dropping to the right point, assuming they're interested.

Well if they're already over what's wrong with Oswalt at 8mil/1 yr? How much lower does his price have To go for us to sign him?

Edited by MakMan44, 15 January 2012 - 03:11 PM.

[MikeM]

So it's pretty comparable if you slide Youks into Ortiz' spot. It would save about $12 million as well, which frees up cash for another position.

It does, and this is the most logical approach we have going imo. Although keeping in mind there's a good chance it won't be 2011 David Ortiz that Player_X is actually replacing, i again like the concept of keeping all options open and resources available there atm (2 year contract to Ortiz right now = BAD. Don't do it Ben).

Personally, i currently find Middlebrooks' MLB prospects pretty questionable, at least beyond the fact he's a potential in-house option at a position where i hear the clock ticking pretty loudly on Youk (it's also generally one of the last positions i'd want to look to free agency in an attempt to fill). I do see better potential value being had here in Lavarnway though, who really is the only guy in our system who stirs any internal emotions for me atm.

[MikeM]

Seeing a $15M or so raise with existing contracts and arbitration is normal, but the raises this season were significantly more than that. Gonzalez alone saw a $15M raise, which combine with the other raises left them with virtually no room to work with. Massive raises like with Gonzalez dont happen too often, so seeing everything add up as quickly as it did this offseason wont happen every year.

Again, you are right in that we don't have any massive raises being accounted for next year on par to the one we currently see with Gonzalez. My point there is that money is money, and reguardless how or in what manner you add it up, at the end of the day that end result figure next year isn't projecting to look any cozier then the one we are dealing with currently.

"With Ellsbury likely to be the only player over the next 2-3 years to see a significant arb hit, and many of the contracts coming off the books next season looking relatively easy to replace with cheaper, in-house options, and no gigantic Gonzalez-like contract raise, next offseason doesn't look to be as dire as this offseason with regards to the payroll increasing without making any additions. They wont be able to go on a massive spending spree to bring in a bunch of top-flight FA (nor should they), but they won't be in a position where a 1 year $10M deal is risy and too expensive for them."

Whether it's that one or 2 big hits, or that numerous small-mid ones, it all adds up the same in the end man. What are we , a couple weeks out from the official hearings? The actual baseline totals will be available to add up and put on big picture display soon enough. But yeah, and barring a stupid financial decision or 2 between now and then of course, i wasn't trying to really argue things wouldn't/couldn't look better to the point where we still wouldn't even consider 1year/$10m contracts. Just that any "we are counting our pennies this winter so we can splurge on a big free agent or 2 next year" reach is a pretty silly concept imo, and one that is hardly adding up giving what we see going on in front of us now.

[MikeM]

Well if they're already over what's wrong with Oswalt at 8mil/1 yr? How much lower does his price have To go for us to sign him?

Heh. On the surface that's a good question that's become a lot harder to accurately predict in recent years then it used to be.

This is a team clearly over-budget from where it wants/wanted to be before Theo did his number on us, but how over-budget are we in the grander sceme of things? $10, 20, 30M? My guess is that we are probably 2 years out (when the cap goes up to $189m, and we never have to really speculate much about it or it's AAV value importance ever again) from having that kind of bigger picture perspective imo.

[untilthebombs]

Well if they're already over what's wrong with Oswalt at 8mil/1 yr? How much lower does his price have To go for us to sign him?

If there are concerns about his back, plenty. Plus you have to consider that whatever they pay for him, they have to pay 40% additionally for the luxury tax. So $8MM is really $11.2MM.

[untilthebombs]

It does, and this is the most logical approach we have going imo. Although keeping in mind there's a good chance it won't be 2011 David Ortiz that Player_X is actually replacing, i again like the concept of keeping all options open and resources available there atm (2 year contract to Ortiz right now = BAD. Don't do it Ben).

Personally, i currently find Middlebrooks' MLB prospects pretty questionable, at least beyond the fact he's a potential in-house option at a position where i hear the clock ticking pretty loudly on Youk (it's also generally one of the last positions i'd want to look to free agency in an attempt to fill). I do see better potential value being had here in Lavarnway though, who really is the only guy in our system who stirs any internal emotions for me atm.

Middlebrooks is on a different tier from Lavarnway as the clear cut current #1 prospect. He's always been viewed as a future major league third baseman, just maybe not one with sufficient pop for the Red Sox. Last year he showed there's at least a decent chance he'll have that pop, in addition to top shelf defense/arm.

This'll sound like a broken record, but I haven't heard anyone outside of the Red Sox suggest that he can be a catcher long term. It's good to see they'll be starting him in Triple-A to give him a chance to develop there. If he can't, he project as an average DH.

[LostinNJ]

Well if they're already over what's wrong with Oswalt at 8mil/1 yr? How much lower does his price have To go for us to sign him?

I think the problem is that each additional year over the threshold results in a higher luxury tax bite. They need to get under the threshold in 2012 to set the clock back to zero, and then if they go over for 2013, it's much less expensive.

[Towney007]

If they can get him on a one-year deal, more power to them, I'm just skeptical.

[MakMan44]

Rob Bradford reporting that the Sox would need to move payroll to make space for Oswalt, meaning a deal is unlikely.

http://fullcount.wee...ign-roy-oswalt/

They really need a viable 4th starter and I really felt Oswalt was it. Even with back issues the guy put up a Sub-4 ERA. That's what we need out of our 4th spot, not flyers like Cook and Silva. I really hope they find a way because we need something to save this offseason and put some hope back into our rotation.