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Let's talk about Michael Pineda


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#1 jon abbey


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Posted 13 January 2012 - 08:07 PM

NY's new #2 starter, 23 years old next week, much better first half than second half in his first MLB season last year. Share your thoughts here...

#2 jon abbey


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Posted 13 January 2012 - 08:13 PM

It looks like Seattle was very careful with him last year, only over 106 pitches once, and that was just 110.

#3 the1andonly3003

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Posted 13 January 2012 - 08:24 PM

Montero for Pineda creates an opening on offense...is this the time for Prince Fielder to sign w/ Yankees?

#4 jon abbey


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Posted 13 January 2012 - 08:28 PM

Montero for Pineda creates an opening on offense...is this the time for Prince Fielder to sign w/ Yankees?


Wrong thread.

#5 Toe Nash

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Posted 13 January 2012 - 08:28 PM

He's a monster. It's going to suck facing him 4-5 times for the next 5+ years. Seriously, fuck the Mariners. I don't think I'm exagerrating though I guess there is injury risk with a guy that young who throws so hard.

#6 jon abbey


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Posted 13 January 2012 - 09:19 PM

Keith Law ranked him 20th on his best players under 25 list in December (Montero wasn't eligible, only players who have lost their rookie status). The piece is Insider-only, but here is the Pineda part:

"Pineda had an outstanding rookie year, boosted by a friendly ballpark and good defense, throwing primarily two pitches -- a plus fastball and very sharp slider -- although his velocity started to slide as the summer went on. He has the size and stuff to continue to pitch as he did in 2011, but improving his changeup, really a show-me offering with virtually no action on it right now, would help him get to ace level."

#7 Bob420

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Posted 13 January 2012 - 09:33 PM

What about Campos? How does everyone feel about him? He could be the x factor in all of this.

#8 rembrat


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Posted 13 January 2012 - 09:35 PM

Oh, yeah, now they have Betances, Banelous, and Campos to trade for Justin Upton in a few years.

#9 Riles335


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Posted 13 January 2012 - 09:35 PM

What are peoples thoughts about Pineda? He has a great K/BB ratio but his home run totals were pretty high. He was also a completely different pitcher away from Safeco.

#10 jon abbey


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Posted 13 January 2012 - 09:56 PM

RHB only hit .184 against Pineda last year, the best of any pitcher in baseball facing 200 or more batters. By comparison, RHB hit .215 against Verlander.

#11 SoxScout


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Posted 13 January 2012 - 10:00 PM

What are peoples thoughts about Pineda? He has a great K/BB ratio but his home run totals were pretty high. He was also a completely different pitcher away from Safeco.


Like, better away from Safeco?

Split K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 K% BB% FIP xFIP
2011 Home 9.6 3.3 2.9 1.1 27% 9% 3.62 3.51
2011 Away 8.7 2.6 3.4 0.9 24% 7% 3.26 3.55

Edited by SoxScout, 13 January 2012 - 10:00 PM.


#12 Rough Carrigan


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Posted 13 January 2012 - 10:22 PM

Those aren't huge differences in home/away.

When I look at his record over at baseball-reference to try to see if there's some real weakness there, most of his splits are fairly blah. One thing that kind of caught my eye was his record against individual teams. The guy absolutely stonewalled all the shitty offense teams but got hit pretty hard by most all the teams with good offenses. Now, that's largely common sense and to be expected to a certain degree. But maybe it's a little beyond the degree to be expected.

Pineda versus shitty offenses
Orioles 13 ip, 2.77 era
White Sox 13 ip, 2.77 era(yes, the same as versus the O's)
Royals 14 ip, 2.57
Twins 11 ip, 1.64
A's 18 ip, 2.00
Padres 7 ip, 0.00

Pineda versus good offenses
Red Sox 4.1 ip, 14.54
Tigers 11.1 ip, 5.56
yankees 5 ip, 5.40
Phillies 6 ip, 1.50
Rangers 19 ip, 4.74

He also got hit well by the Braves, Angels and Blue Jays but held the Rays down, all teams I'm not sure where to categorize.

This sort of fits the characterization in a previous post of a guy who has two pitches and nothing more. The really good offenses will pick one and pound it.

#13 curly2

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Posted 13 January 2012 - 10:43 PM

Your point is good, Rough, but if Pineda ever makes his changeup into even an average pitch, he could truly be lights out. And a lot of guys are still getting a feel for a change at his age.

Pineda is only eight months older than Anthony Ranaudo, who was nothing special at Salem last season, and 17 months older than Matt Barnes, who has never thrown a pitch in professional baseball. He's certainly young enough to get his third pitch working.

#14 rembrat


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Posted 13 January 2012 - 10:50 PM

When your only point comes from SSS then you dont really have a point.

#15 jon abbey


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Posted 13 January 2012 - 11:00 PM

Your point is good, Rough, but if Pineda ever makes his changeup into even an average pitch, he could truly be lights out. And a lot of guys are still getting a feel for a change at his age.

Pineda is only eight months older than Anthony Ranaudo, who was nothing special at Salem last season, and 17 months older than Matt Barnes, who has never thrown a pitch in professional baseball. He's certainly young enough to get his third pitch working.


Yeah, this, he will still develop (hopefully), he's just doing it while already in MLB and having two pretty devastating pitches already.

It's my impression (and some here followed him more closely than me, I know rem did) that Seattle really babied him last year, a bit like NY did with Nova the year before. Rough is right in everything he says there, but he was a 22 year old going around the league for the first time and seemingly being held in third gear by his organization (and rightly so).

#16 MikeM

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Posted 14 January 2012 - 01:23 AM

I was pretty sold on Montero being a future stud, but to get a pitcher like Pineda 2 years out from arby 1? Opportunities like that just don't realistically present themselves enough to even consider passing that up. When you ultimately don't have a *legitimate* budget, one can always go out and buy themselves a quality bat. Young/high-upside starting pitching......yeah, not so much. Combined with Kuroda (ahh, the good ol' days of not having to count every penny on pontential 1 year contract flyers. fucking Theo) it's a great day to be a Yankee fan.

Cashman has come a long way from the those early turn of the century offseasons. Can't wait to see what he spins out of the current surplus.

Edited by MikeM, 14 January 2012 - 01:24 AM.


#17 Hee-Seop's Fable

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Posted 14 January 2012 - 01:38 AM

I asked this in the other thread, but it fits better here: What was he down with in '09 that he only threw 57 1/3 innings and faced only 178 batters? The Yanks are going to have to be careful with him for a couple of more years... that's about the only down side I can see for a guy dominating MLB @ 22.

#18 jon abbey


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Posted 14 January 2012 - 02:10 AM

• Pineda's average fastball whooshed along at 94.7 miles per hour last year, according to FanGraphs. The only starting pitchers in the big leagues who topped that were Alexi Ogando (95.1), Justin Verlander (95.0) and David Price (94.8).
• And Pineda generated a fabulous 24.2 swing-and-miss percentage last year, according to FanGraphs. The only pitchers in either league who did better than that were Tim Lincecum (24.9), Brandon Morrow (24.6), Cole Hamels (24.6) and Mat Latos (24.5).

http://espn.go.com/m...arting-rotation

#19 Sprowl


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Posted 14 January 2012 - 02:17 AM

The only downside that I can see to Pineda for the Yankees is that he is a flyball pitcher (.81 GB/FB) with a platoon split. On the other hand, that platoon split is mostly because he is devastating against RHB, and if his Safeco charts are overlaid on the Bidet, he doesn't seem to give up a lot of warning track flyballs to rightfield. Even so, he may run into some problems against Ellsbury-Gonzalez-Ortiz-Crawford-Salty.

#20 Freddy Linn


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Posted 14 January 2012 - 02:18 AM

Latos and Pineda are very similar pitchers. Both are large, intimidating, powerful figures on the mound as Latos stands 6-foot-6 and is listed at 225 pounds while Pineda's vitals tell us he is 6-foot-7 and 260 pounds. Both routinely throw their fastballs in the mid-90s and have good control. But their similarities transfer over to their stats, too. Latos broke into the big leagues in July of 2009 while Pineda saw his first major league action in the Mariners' fifth game of last season. Latos' career consists of 72 starts while Pineda has 28. But outside of the difference in experience, they are very much alike. Pineda is a little over a year younger, having signed as an International Free Agent whereas Latos signed out of high school. Latos had a 2.49 ERA and 1.06 WHIP while striking out 10.5 batters-per-nine and walking just 2.3 per nine in his minor league career. Pineda had an identical minor league ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, 8.8 SO/9 and 2.1 BB/9. Both young, right-handed power pitchers that have enjoyed early success in the major leagues, too.

Latos compiled a 3.37 ERA and 3.28 FIP while accumulating 7.3 WAR over 429 2/3 innings for the Padres while striking out 8.65 batters-per-nine, walking 2.83 per nine giving him a 23.5% strikeout percentage and a 7.7% walk percentage. He has also allowed just 0.82 HR/9, thanks in part to a nice 42.8% ground ball rate. Pineda's rookie season saw him net a 3.74 ERA, 3.42 FIP and 3.4 WAR in 171 innings with 9.11 SO/9 and 2.89 BB/9 -- good for a 24.9% strikeout percentage and 7.9% walk percentage -- while allowing just 0.95 HR/9 and inducing a 36.3% ground ball rate.

Similar pitchers who've accumulated similar statistics working with a similar repertoire. That said, they aren't identical twins, so it isn't a slam dunk to assume that the trade package that the Reds sent to the Padres would've also been offered to the Mariners. But while Latos has a fourth pitch, more experience and a more polished and effective slider, Pineda is younger, more even-keeled and comes with one more season of cheap club control. So in ways, Pineda could be seen as even more valuable on the trade market.



Comparing Pineda and Latos

#21 jon abbey


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Posted 14 January 2012 - 05:34 AM

I asked this in the other thread, but it fits better here: What was he down with in '09 that he only threw 57 1/3 innings and faced only 178 batters? The Yanks are going to have to be careful with him for a couple of more years... that's about the only down side I can see for a guy dominating MLB @ 22.


This article calls it an "elbow ailment":

http://mlb.mlb.com/n...ws_mlb&c_id=mlb

#22 abty

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Posted 14 January 2012 - 07:37 AM

Hard to say how hoe will respond to the pressure but you certainly have one of the most talented arms in baseball.

Edited by abty, 14 January 2012 - 07:38 AM.


#23 Puffy

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Posted 14 January 2012 - 11:04 AM

What do people think of his somewhat atypical mechanics? For a big power guy, he doesn't seem to use his size to his advantage, mechanically. I'm certainly no expert, but I would be a little worried about he seems to just arm it. It is kind of amazing the kind of velocity he manages to generate when it doesn't seem like he his really making use of anything other than his shoulder and arm. He seems to have adopted some tweaks to his mechanics over the last year, incorporating a little more of that torque (like Felix and Bedard). He hides the ball well, I think, so deception seems to be a part of it (as well as stuff and command). But still, potential for injury and managing that arm has to be a significant factor.

For the Mariners, in spite of the incredible upside, it makes some sense to cash Pineda in for something more of a sure bet. Montero's upside (if they view him as a DH) probably isn't as high as Pineda's, but they probably figured that he was more of a sure thing to give them 3 WAR per year for the next few years than Pineda. They have lots of young arms, so it seems like an understandable way of trading from strength to address a weakness (offense). Montero's opposite field power helps him fit in that lineup and ballpark, even as a righty with power. If they still see Montero as a potential C, that would help explain their thinking as well.

#24 jon abbey


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Posted 15 January 2012 - 12:45 AM

I can't remember NY having a SP coming off of this strong of an age 22 season with this much potential, maybe since I've been following the team (1975, when I was 8). Mel Stottlemyre and Whitey Ford both had great years before 23 (although much less than 170 innings), but I can't come up with anyone since then.

BR's similarity scores by age have two pretty exciting ones up top:

Similar Pitchers through 22

#25 YankeesIsrael

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Posted 15 January 2012 - 09:51 AM

I can't remember NY having a SP coming off of this strong of an age 22 season with this much potential, maybe since I've been following the team (1975, when I was 8). Mel Stottlemyre and Whitey Ford both had great years before 23 (although much less than 170 innings), but I can't come up with anyone since then.


Dave Righetti had a better, albeit strike-shortened, year than Pineda in 1981, when he was 22.

Edited by YankeesIsrael, 15 January 2012 - 09:58 AM.


#26 jon abbey


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Posted 15 January 2012 - 07:21 PM

Dave Righetti had a better, albeit strike-shortened, year than Pineda in 1981, when he was 22.


Ooh, good call.

A NYYfans poster did some research which I haven't doublechecked, but if true, gives a good idea of how rare a year 22 season like Pineda had is:

====================================================

Of all rookie RHP in the AL in the DH era (1973-current) 22 or younger who started at least 25 games, Pineda's 2011 season was:

1st in BAA
1st in H/9
1st in K/BB ratio
2nd in total strikeouts (Bobby Witt 1st)
2nd in K/9 (Witt)
2nd in WHIP (Mark Fidrych 1st)
2nd in SLG against (Fidrych)
2nd in OBP against (Fidrych)


Expanding to all rookie RHP 22 years old and younger in American League history (The AL was founded in 1901) who started at least 25 games, Pineda's year ranked:

1st in K/BB rate
2nd in total strikeouts
2nd in K/9
2nd in WHIP
3rd in H/9


If you broaden the scope even further and compare his 2011 season to all rookie RHP 22 or younger, who started at least 25 games in any league since the AL was formed in 1901, Pineda's freshman campaign ranks:


4th in K/BB rate (Behind only Don Sutton, Dwight Gooden, and Gary Nolan)
8th in total strikeouts
5th in in K/9 (Behind only Kerry Wood, Gooden, Witt, and Tom Griffin)
5th in WHIP (Behind only Fidrych, Gooden, Sutton, and a guy from the Deadball Era)
8th in H/9

====================================================

http://forums.nyyfan...l=1#post7427746

#27 Sampo Gida

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Posted 16 January 2012 - 01:49 AM

This sort of fits the characterization in a previous post of a guy who has two pitches and nothing more. The really good offenses will pick one and pound it.


He is only 22 so I imagine he will develop additional pitches like a change or splitter. Until he does he might have a rough go of it to start with the smaller parks and better hitting in the AL East. That said, if he can stay healthy he should improve, so there may be plenty of upside to be seen over the next 5 cost controlled years.

Trading for or signing pitchers is always risky. He missed some time in September followed by a quick hook (4 IP, 81 pitches) in his final start make you wonder if the Mariners know or suspect something about his health, especially given he missed a lot of 2009 with elbow issues and his 2nd half performance was not that great. Could be nothing, but it's probably the only concern the Yankees should have about this deal. I imagine the deal is pending a physical so they will probably look at that pretty closely.

#28 jon abbey


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Posted 16 January 2012 - 02:19 AM

He missed some time in September followed by a quick hook (4 IP, 81 pitches) in his final start make you wonder if the Mariners know or suspect something about his health, especially given he missed a lot of 2009 with elbow issues and his 2nd half performance was not that great. Could be nothing, but it's probably the only concern the Yankees should have about this deal. I imagine the deal is pending a physical so they will probably look at that pretty closely.


That was just innings limits and his second half really wasn't much different from his first except for ERA (FIP was very close). Not sure if this Cameron piece has been linked here yet, but either way, here you go:

http://www.fangraphs...pinedas-splits/

#29 AlNipper49


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Posted 16 January 2012 - 01:58 PM

Posted Image

#30 Sampo Gida

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Posted 16 January 2012 - 08:05 PM

That was just innings limits and his second half really wasn't much different from his first except for ERA (FIP was very close). Not sure if this Cameron piece has been linked here yet, but either way, here you go:

http://www.fangraphs...pinedas-splits/


He threw 139 IP in 2010 so that makes sense.

I am kind of inclined to attach importance to ERA . His 4.9 ERA over his last 16 starts despite pitching 1/2 the time in SAFECO is worth noting, and even though his FIP was over 1 run lower than his ERA over this period, it was a significant jump from his first 12 starts. I guess that could be as simple as the league adjusted or that Pineda tired as the season wore on.

edit: the velocity chart on your link seems to show a downward trend (although Cameron does not see it)

Edited by Sampo Gida, 16 January 2012 - 08:12 PM.


#31 jon abbey


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Posted 16 January 2012 - 10:02 PM

A former SoSH poster chimes in:

gehrig38 Curt Schilling

You never EVER trade 22 year old pitchers that throw 95-100, are huge, and can start, ever. Wow, don't care how good a bat you get back....


gehrig38 Curt Schilling

@MattTrueblood This is a trade I can only come up with 'bad' to describe. I don't know Pineda details, maybe his arm is about to fall off..



gehrig38 Curt Schilling

@MattTrueblood If it's not? Stupid trade,stupid stupid trade.22 is the age you start getting better, mentally, imo, and with his stuff? wow.

#32 Sampo Gida

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Posted 16 January 2012 - 11:50 PM

G38 nailed it of course. A steal for the Yankees IF Pinedas arm is sound.

That IF is the key to the deal. Remember, the Mariners passed on Montero when it came time for them to trade Cliff Lee and lose his last 15 starts of 2009. What changed since 2009 that they were willing to trade 5 years of cost controlled Pineda for Montero.

Maybe the Mariners just do not have a clue and have simply changed their mind on Montero and the value of offense, or maybe they do not think Pinedas arm is sound.

#33 EvilEmpire

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Posted 17 January 2012 - 12:52 AM

G38 nailed it of course. A steal for the Yankees IF Pinedas arm is sound.

That IF is the key to the deal. Remember, the Mariners passed on Montero when it came time for them to trade Cliff Lee and lose his last 15 starts of 2009. What changed since 2009 that they were willing to trade 5 years of cost controlled Pineda for Montero.

Maybe the Mariners just do not have a clue and have simply changed their mind on Montero and the value of offense, or maybe they do not think Pinedas arm is sound.


Sure.

OR

...they thought Smoak would be better than he is now
...they still need cheap offense
...they are more sold on Montero's offensive potential than they were the last time
...they are more sold on Montero's catching potential than they were the last time
...they are more confident in finding/drafting pitching than they are cost-controlled hitting talent

I think the reality is that there likely isn't just one or two reasons they made this deal now when they didn't before. All the reasons above, including concerns about Pineda's long-term health and potential could be true. The deal makes sense for both teams in a lot of ways. The Yankees know they are assuming more risk with Pineda compared to Montero's more certain bat, but given their yearly pitching concerns, it is a risk worth taking. Especially since they likely really will need that DH spot open sooner rather than later.

#34 jon abbey


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Posted 17 January 2012 - 01:24 AM

They have three stud starters 1-2 years away in the minors and they haven't been able to develop any hitting besides Ackley (not that I think the word 'developing' really applies to the second pick overall in the draft). Someone pointed out that Montero, Smoak and Ackley were all in the top 15 or so prospects in baseball two years ago, so if their next wave of pitchers develops like they think it will, they have a solid core to go along with King Felix.

The arm stuff is really just wishful thinking, I haven't seen a single person with knowledge of the situation even allude to that possibility. BP's writeup on him last offseason (with a year of performance after the 2009 elbow issues) began "Pineda is about as close as pitching prospects come to a sure thing", followed immediately by a Pedro comparison and some more raves (you can read the whole writeup at Amazon if you don't have the book, just look for Baseball Prospectus 2011 and search for Michael Pineda).

#35 ThePrideofShiner

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Posted 17 January 2012 - 02:12 AM

If he had any sort of serious arm troubles, I doubt the Yankees would be coughing Montero up for him. That just doesn't make sense.

#36 Wingack


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Posted 17 January 2012 - 02:24 AM

If he had any sort of serious arm troubles, I doubt the Yankees would be coughing Montero up for him. That just doesn't make sense.


At the very least, the Yankees will give his arm a thorough exam before the deal is finally approved (or they already have).

#37 Puffy

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Posted 17 January 2012 - 08:46 AM

If he had any sort of serious arm troubles, I doubt the Yankees would be coughing Montero up for him. That just doesn't make sense.


Right, but if the Mariners were comfortable enough with his arm, his mechanics, and his repertoire to be certain that he would be able to contribute as a top of the rotation starter for the next 5 years, then they would never have traded him. Even if the Mariners view Montero as a C, this is a difficult trade to figure without considering the attrition rate of young pitchers in general, and the risks that might be associated with Pineda (injury projections and/or performance decline) in the next few years.

Most observers are framing this as two teams trading from strength to fulfill an area of need - which is definitely a big part of the story. The other aspect is that the teams were managing their risk. It's no surprise that the Mariners essentially traded the two players with the highest upside, but also the highest risk (Campos is 19 years old) in exchange for players of lower upside potential but also lower risk. Let's face it, Montero could be a Hall of Fame offensive force, but if he is limited to DH, this limits his ceiling (and value) to some extent. Given their respective payrolls and current roster configuration, injury or performance decline from Pineda would have had a greater impact on the Mariners than Yankees. Coupled with this, the Mariners probably looked and Montero and clearly chose a position player who would more or less be good for a minimum of 3 WAR a year with lower risk of injury or performance decline. Noesi, while he may project as a back end of the rotation starter or even reliever, fits a profile of a player who may do very well at Safeco (Fister-esque?) and could replace a portion of the value that they lose from trading Pineda.

The Yankees placed weight on the marginal value of the wins gained from adding Pineda to the roster of a playoff bound team. They are banking on the payoff, but can likely live with the flameout risk (and likely weather it through added payroll) for the chance to acquire his upside, which is obviously substantial (as G38 so concisely points out). The Yankees consolidated risk for the chance to upgrade a roster spot (on a stacked roster) from 2 to 5 WAR (or whatever). The Mariners spread their risk around their limited roster in order to fill gaping holes, but also hopefully solidify a baseline of performance that they can build around as they retool. It's another take on quantity for quality. Jack Z is taking a lot of flack here, but when they look back at the trade in 5 years, there is a good chance that he will have acquired the two players who made the greatest impact at a major league level.

#38 Doctor G

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Posted 18 January 2012 - 12:36 PM

Posted Image

The low 3/4 arm slot might make the change- up a little more of a problem to perfect. Pineda is similar to Contreras in his arm slot and delivery. Contreras settled on a forkball instead of a change.

Itis also possible that Pineda's previous elbow troubles make him hesitant to throw the change.

#39 priestvalon

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Posted 18 January 2012 - 08:34 PM

Right, but if the Mariners were comfortable enough with his arm, his mechanics, and his repertoire to be certain that he would be able to contribute as a top of the rotation starter for the next 5 years, then they would never have traded him. Even if the Mariners view Montero as a C, this is a difficult trade to figure without considering the attrition rate of young pitchers in general, and the risks that might be associated with Pineda (injury projections and/or performance decline) in the next few years.


Seattle has a really terrible offense, has no help coming in the minors any time soon and even has issues as a basement dweller in attracting prime free agents. Not having every M's hitting inning being a snoozefest will be a financial plus: true baseball fans may really appreciate a well pitched game but the casual fan digs the long ball. Even if Seattle ends on the short end of the WAR calculation, if the gate improves, I doubt Jack Z cares.

#40 Alternate34

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Posted 19 January 2012 - 12:42 PM

Something that seems to be missed in those Schilling comments is the injury history of young pitchers who throw hard. The "if he stays healthy" caveat applies to young pitchers to perhaps the greatest degree. How to prevent young pitchers from getting injured is still largely unknown. That gets lost in the talk about sexy arms on pitchers. However, Pineda is the kind of young pitcher with a brilliant arm that is worth the risk. He has some measure of control as compared to young power pitchers and he has a very effective second pitch. Injury is the only thing that make this a disaster. On the opposite side, Pineda's development of a change up or the addition of an effective splitter (not saying he is working on it, but it is often a good alternative to a change up for power pitchers) could make this a coup.

#41 Wingack


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Posted 19 January 2012 - 08:30 PM

I think the most important thing to remember when talking about Pineda is that he did this all in MLB when he was 22. Many pitchers at his age are still in college at that point. So when we are talking about home/road splits or flyball tendencies or his lack of a serviceable third pitch, he is still just 22, an incomplete project. This isn't a 30 year-old that had struggles outside of Safeco.

Yet he still put up some very impressive numbers.

#42 rembrat


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Posted 20 January 2012 - 12:18 AM

There has been alot written recently that actually shows pitchers getting worse with age. For whatever the reason, unlike hitters who get better as they age, pitchers simply do not. Once they get to what is commonly thought of as their "prime" they dip. This is why age and level really doesnt matter much for pitchers.

You can read more about it here

http://www.fangraphs...-as-good-again/

http://www.insidethe...rse_every_year/

#43 Rough Carrigan


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Posted 20 January 2012 - 10:15 AM

Well, isn't the likely reason pretty obvious? They progressively hurt their arms. 95 mph and a crackling curve at age 22 becomes 93 mph and a still very good curve at 26 etc etc. Some refine their command enough to make up the difference for a while. Others don't. And some fall apart physically much too fast to ever compensate. Throwing a baseball overhand at 95 mph is not something the human body was designed to do all the time.

#44 kneemoe

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Posted 20 January 2012 - 11:13 AM

Well, isn't the likely reason pretty obvious? They progressively hurt their arms. 95 mph and a crackling curve at age 22 becomes 93 mph and a still very good curve at 26 etc etc. Some refine their command enough to make up the difference for a while. Others don't. And some fall apart physically much too fast to ever compensate. Throwing a baseball overhand at 95 mph is not something the human body was designed to do all the time.


Maybe not 95mph, but there is definitely a theory of evolution that supports the idea that man evolved specifically with the throwing motion being a deciding factor in who got to procreate more. I hear this point made all the time, that man isn't really supposed to throw, but it goes against everything I learned in my otherwise useless anthro degree.

Edit: some articles to back me up
/offtopic

Edited by kneemoe, 20 January 2012 - 11:15 AM.


#45 mefck

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Posted 20 January 2012 - 12:21 PM

It didn't take wind or other atmospheric factors into account, but someone plotted how many fly balls in Safeco would have been out in Yankee STadium and came up with an answer: http://www.rlyw.net/...s_hit_locations

Zero.

Edited by mefck, 20 January 2012 - 12:21 PM.


#46 Rough Carrigan


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Posted 20 January 2012 - 01:23 PM

Maybe not 95mph, but there is definitely a theory of evolution that supports the idea that man evolved specifically with the throwing motion being a deciding factor in who got to procreate more. I hear this point made all the time, that man isn't really supposed to throw, but it goes against everything I learned in my otherwise useless anthro degree.

Edit: some articles to back me up
/offtopic

You're right that I overstated that. But isn't it becoming an accepted item of conventional wisdom that pitchers throw their fastest at age 22-24 or something like that and (absent conditioning improvements or improvements in mechanics) go downhill from there?

Edited by Rough Carrigan, 20 January 2012 - 01:24 PM.


#47 Alternate34

  • 2,461 posts

Posted 20 January 2012 - 01:24 PM

Maybe not 95mph, but there is definitely a theory of evolution that supports the idea that man evolved specifically with the throwing motion being a deciding factor in who got to procreate more. I hear this point made all the time, that man isn't really supposed to throw, but it goes against everything I learned in my otherwise useless anthro degree.

Edit: some articles to back me up
/offtopic


Perhaps, but one must take into account that the natural selection of throwers is probably biased towards being able to throw early in life rather than later. You were hunting from a very young age and dying pretty young as well. I don't know if we have been naturally selected to throw past the age of 30. Also, throw a ball is different than throwing a spear or whipping a sling around. I am also not sure how early tools were designed to throw spears farther, but the atlatl is a pretty early tool.

#48 StuckOnYouk

  • 2,062 posts

Posted 20 January 2012 - 01:55 PM

I keep coming back to thinking you don't trade a 22 year old with his "stuff" unless there's a reason for it. Having Felix and a cheap Pineda at the top of their rotation for the next 3 years, on the face of it, is hard to beat when you include age, stuff and cost (at least for Pineda).

Something's going on in the minds of Seattle regarding Pineda. Something doesn't smell right with this trade from Seattle's part (and that's not knocking Montero's ability to hit). And the fact they had to throw in that other arm? Just odd to me.

#49 kneemoe

  • 1,920 posts

Posted 20 January 2012 - 01:58 PM

You're right that I overstated that. But isn't it becoming an accepted item of conventional wisdom that pitchers throw their fastest at age 22-24 or something like that and (absent conditioning improvements or improvements in mechanics) go downhill from there?


I think its pretty safe to say there is a steep decline in MPH after somewhere around 26-28, in fact those links rembrat posted above go over that and even have some additional stuff linked off of them with more detail.

#50 kneemoe

  • 1,920 posts

Posted 20 January 2012 - 02:01 PM

Perhaps, but one must take into account that the natural selection of throwers is probably biased towards being able to throw early in life rather than later. You were hunting from a very young age and dying pretty young as well. I don't know if we have been naturally selected to throw past the age of 30. Also, throw a ball is different than throwing a spear or whipping a sling around. I am also not sure how early tools were designed to throw spears farther, but the atlatl is a pretty early tool.


It is indeed, but we were throwing rocks before we were chucking spears, especially earlier than using 'spear chuckers'. But you're definitely right in your larger point, by about the same time we think pitchers start to break down most early humans were considered old.
atlatl is one of my favotire words though.




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