135 replies to this topic

[rembrat]

I disagree. You dont win or lose trades on the potential and upside of a 19 year old.

And the people who think the Yankees are going after Fielder have to sit back and realize that no one pays $100MM+ to have a guy DH. If the Yankees didnt have Teix at 1B then yea, I could see it. I get it, the Yankees are the boogieman but try to look at this rationally.

edit: I should really start quoting the person I'm responding to.

Edited by rembrat, 14 January 2012 - 11:04 AM.

[HomeRunBaker]

Someone here once said "shit franchises will always be shit franchises, until they decided not to be shit franchises"

When can we start taking advantage of these shit franchises?

As soon as we find teams to take guys such as Heathcliff Slocumb, Casey Fossum, Jorge de la Rosa, and Anthony Rizzo off our hands. It will probably never happen.

Seriously, are you living under a rock?

[jodyreeddudley78]

Are DHs really easy to find? This isnt 1999 anymore. There is Ortiz and... yea, there is Ortiz.

Anyways, I dont think Z got fleeced. He dealt young pitching, which he has A TON of, for something he doesnt have and desperately needs. Its a win-win for both sides.

This is where I'm at. This is a great trade for both teams. I think people are underestimating just how good Montero might be offensively. Let's say he puts up the numbers that James/the fans predict over at Fangraphs. You then have the best hitter on the Mariners and a top 30 hitter in MLB. I understand that this is optimistic, and that his value is lessened by playing DH, but this is not the one-sided trade that some are making it out to be.

edit: It seems to me that people's perceptions of offensive value are a bit skewed by AL East teams and the Sox/Yanks in general.

Edited by jodyreeddudley78, 14 January 2012 - 11:26 AM.

[maufman]

As a Sox fan, I hate this trade, as it transforms the MFY from a solid AL East favorite to a prohibitive one.

I don't like the deal for Seattle, but that's because I'm not sold on Montero. If he becomes the hitter a lot of people think he can be, and if the M's parlay their 6 years of control into 8 with an extension 3-4 years from now, then the only way this deal doesn't work for the M's is if Pineda pitches like a Hall of Famer in New York -- which the M's obviously don't expect him to do.

[Alcohol&Overcalls]

Could approach...in Pineda you know what you have.

This is definitely not true - if for no other reason than the uncertainty inherent in young pitchers.

Pineda has a great track record and excellent performance last year, but it's still one year at the ML level, and it's still a young pitcher. Montero's uncertainty is mostly with regard to his defense.

I think it's a great trade for both teams. I agree with Cameron that, at least at first blush, I'd rather have the haul from the Latos trade, but Z didn't get exactly get fleeced.

In approx. 30 minutes, I went from laughing at the Yankees' rotation to crapping my pants, though, which might color our analysis here.

Edited by Alcohol&Overcalls, 14 January 2012 - 01:14 PM.

[EvilEmpire]

I could see this deal working out like Ramirez/Beckett did for Boston and Florida with both teams being happy. I think Montero is going to be special and I am so happy the Yankees didn't give him up for a one-year rental or a guy they'd have to pay 20m or more a year.

I still don't understand how they got Campos though.

[NYCrusader]

Bobbby V sound's like a poster on a message board rationalizing with this analysis....

http://espn.go.com/b...s-yankees-moves

"They're probably an upgrade from [Bartolo] Colon and [Freddy] Garcia," Valentine said on Saturday morning. "Probably. I don't know. It seems it."

He did talk about the potential flaws for each pitcher.

"Pineda, when I saw him the first half, he looked unhittable. Second half, he looked OK," said Valentine. "[The Mariners] saw a lot of him and they traded him.

"Kuroda is a good pitcher -- a year older than he was last year, pitching in the American League and not the National League, pitching in not a great pitcher's ballpark from a great pitcher's ballpark."

Edited by NYCrusader, 14 January 2012 - 02:28 PM.

[rembrat]

I'm reminded of the scene from The Sporanos were Philly Parisi is yapping to Gigi about Tony

"This... is who leads us now."

[SoxScout]

Looking at Pure Quality Starts from Baseball Forecaster

Pineda
21 Dominant 75%
4 Neutral
3 Disaster

Beckett
21 Dominant 70%
7   Neutral
2   Disaster

Lester
19 Dominant 61%
7   Neutral
5   Disaster

[jon abbey]

I'm reminded of the scene from The Sporanos were Philly Parisi is yapping to Gigi about Tony

"This... is who leads us now."

Hahaha, yeah. He really should never talk publicly, but of course he will never stop.

[moly99]

Z must just really love Montero. Or maybe all awful defense/huge ceiling power 1b/DHs. I'd much rather have Pineda.

The Mariners front office makes decisions to save their jobs rather than serve the long term best interests of the franchise. That's why they didn't pull the trigger on a trade to add another bat in their 116 win 2001 season, why they didn't spent a couple million to get a legit closer in the Griffey/A-Rod/Randy Johnson/Edgar Martinez era, why they refused to trade fan favorite Felix Hernandez for the Red Sox top 5 or 6 prospects, etc.

When you make era corrections (as in dead ball era, not ERA) the Mariners over the past three years have had the worst stretch of offense in the history of baseball. That's not hyperbole. I mean they have literally been the worst offensive team in the history of baseball.

Since the Mariners don't have a single owner to reassure Z he won't be fired for the continued incompetence of their offense, he has to pull the trigger on some sort of move to add hitting or risk being canned at the end of this upcoming season. It was likely either this or stupidly overpay Prince Fielder and Zduriencik chose the younger, cheaper, thinner Montero over Fielder.

Edited by moly99, 14 January 2012 - 07:27 PM.

[Toe Nash]

The Mariners front office makes decisions to save their jobs rather than serve the long term best interests of the franchise. That's why they didn't pull the trigger on a trade to add another bat in their 116 win 2001 season, why they didn't spent a couple million to get a legit closer in the Griffey/A-Rod/Randy Johnson/Edgar Martinez era, why they refused to trade fan favorite Felix Hernandez for the Red Sox top 5 or 6 prospects, etc.

The first two was a different management team. And you think they should have looked at their 116 win team and said "eh, we're missing something"?? I mean, they led the league in runs and had 5 guys with an .830 OPS or better.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I think folks are discounting how hard it is to find really good offensive players, especially for a team like Seattle. Pineda is great, but his ERA was barely better than league average, and nearly everyone who called Safeco home had fantastic stats. This is an epically bad offensive team. If Montero is even close to as good as people think he is, this could be a very good trade for them. Pineda could flame out and not be able to handle NY, or regress from a great rookie season, lots of guys have. Ultimately, I think this trade could be really good for both sides. Both teams dealt from their strengths to address weaknesses. I think it's really premature to suggest the Mariners got swindled.

Any kind of value projections on these guys going forward?

[crow216]

I think folks are discounting how hard it is to find really good offensive players, especially for a team like Seattle. Pineda is great, but his ERA was barely better than league average, and nearly everyone who called Safeco home had fantastic stats. This is an epically bad offensive team. If Montero is even close to as good as people think he is, this could be a very good trade for them. Pineda could flame out and not be able to handle NY, or regress from a great rookie season, lots of guys have. Ultimately, I think this trade could be really good for both sides. Both teams dealt from their strengths to address weaknesses. I think it's really premature to suggest the Mariners got swindled.

Any kind of value projections on these guys going forward?

Home road splits are moot with Pineda. Fangraphs had a pretty good article on his stats. Both gave up a lot, both get a lot. Simply put, Montero is more valuable to the Mariners and Pineda is more valuable to the Yankees.

[moly99]

The first two was a different management team.

The Mariners have abentee owners (mostly Nintendo's Hiroshi Yamauchi, who has never seen a Mariners game live) and are run by two executives named Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong that have final say in all decisions. Lincoln and Armstrong have been around since 1993. The two of them have publicly stated that it is not their intention to try to win a championship in any one year, but rather to remain competitive each year. That would be fine if they were overseeing a large market team like the Angels, Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, etc. But it very obviously isn't going to work for a team like the Mariners or Twins.

And you think they should have looked at their 116 win team and said "eh, we're missing something"?? I mean, they led the league in runs and had 5 guys with an .830 OPS or better.

It was very obvious that the team overachieved in getting to 116 wins. Moreover, even if you don't agree with that, don't you still pull the trigger on a trade to improve if it's the best shot your mid-market team had in its entire history?

It's difficult to explain to someone who hasn't followed the team closely for years, but the Mariners make an absolute ton of decisions like signing two righty flyball hitters to huge deals (Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson) to play in a park that murders righty flyball hitters because they are worried about fan unrest. Or having a rookie pitcher with a 3.4 something ERA (Bobbie Madritsch) throw way too much (up to 135 pitches in a game; I think he was second in pitches/game behind Livan Hernandez that year) and blowing his arm out because they were desperate to avoid losing 100 games only a few years after Howard Lincoln made his famous "compete every year" statement.

I'm not even a Mariners fan, but it's infuriating living in Seattle and watching the front office flush such good work from the team's lower level employees down the toilet on a yearly basis.

Edited by moly99, 14 January 2012 - 08:18 PM.

[Guero]

It will be interesting to see how these players work out over time.

It is somewhat of a bummer losing Montero so shortly after seeing him rake in his first taste at YS. I'll spend some time watching him play for Seattle, just to see how he progresses next season.

Pineda fills a void that was a major concern to most Yankee fans this year. If he can stay healthy and continue to grow, this is really a great trade for the Yankees moving forward. While I liked Montero, I couldn't see him ever becoming Posada v2.0 with Martin on the roster and several other better defensive options down the ladder. It would have been fun seeing him DH, but really it would have been a luxury for the Yankee lineup. For the Mariners he could be a saving grace in providing much needed offense, which is good for them. And apparently they are stocked very well with young arms for the future.

I also would like to see more people talking about the other two players that were "throw-ins". Noesi really looked like he could have become a solid mid to back of the rotation guy for years to come. He served well as long man, and while not electric, he seemed to have what it takes to stay in the bigs. I'll look forward to seeing is Campo matures into an asset.

[amarshal2]

As soon as we find teams to take guys such as Heathcliff Slocumb, Casey Fossum, Jorge de la Rosa, and Anthony Rizzo off our hands. It will probably never happen.

Seriously, are you living under a rock?

Anthony Rizzo may have struggled in his first 150 PA in MLB, but he hit .331/.404/.652 in AAA and Theo just traded for him to be the Cubs 1B of the future. I wouldn't put him on a list with guys who were traded for stars and flopped just yet.

[BigMike]

I could see this deal working out like Ramirez/Beckett did for Boston and Florida with both teams being happy. I think Montero is going to be special and I am so happy the Yankees didn't give him up for a one-year rental or a guy they'd have to pay 20m or more a year.

I still don't understand how they got Campos though.

Definitely an interesting deal. I ted to buy the hype that Montero has a HOF type bat, but no idea if he'll be able to stick at catcher. As somone who has owned Montero for 5 years in an AL keeper league, I do hope Montero will get his 5-10 appearances at catcher a year to keep that positional eligibility.

Pineda is a talent, it will be interesting to find out over time if he is one of those guys capable of pitching in NY.

As for Campos. he is a very talented raw prospect who is 4-5 years from the majors most likely. Noesi gives Seattle a guy who can step in and replace Pineda this year, and probably give the M's 150+ innings. And Noesi may throw 600-750 innings at the major league level before Campos throws a pitch in the majors

[jon abbey]

And Noesi may throw 600-750 innings at the major league level before Campos throws a pitch in the majors

This is true, and this works well for NY also, since their AAA rotation was going to be very crowded. Phelps and Warren aren't far behind Noesi, and Banuelos and Betances aren't far behind them. Campos gives them a potential ace arm lower in the system, which they don't have many of (Nik Turley is the only one to come to mind).

[nycdoc999]

Campos gives them a potential ace arm lower in the system, which they don't have many of (Nik Turley is the only one to come to mind).

This is a good point. Even Marshall and Stoneburner are mid-rotation guys. High upside arms are lacking in the low minors.

[Kid T]

If the Ms were going to make a move why not make a move that could bring them a huge haul that would have included Montero plus for Felix. It is a deal that makes sense for both squads but the Ms should have made a bigger move.

Why give up Felix for Montero plus, when you could give up "only" Pineda (plus Campos) for Montero plus? The Mariners needed hitting (and power) and got that in the form of Montero. What else could the Yankees give up to further this goal, that would justify giving up Felix?

Also, with respect to the M's "window", Felix is only 25 years old. I suspect the FO and ownership would expect to contend within the next 7 years, which would obviate any reason to trade one of the best pitchers in MLB.

I think this trade is a win for Yankees (if only because I think Montero has only a 10% chance at sticking behind the plate). If Campos develops into anything, it will turn into a big win for the Yankees.

[Brickowski]

I think this deal is alot closer than some folks think. First, young pitchers will just drive you crazy sometimes and I don't view Pineda as being a "lock" for the Yankees' No. 2 starter. And even if Pineda turns out to be a stud, Montero is the kind of hitter who could be producing 110-120 RBIs a season for a decade. He has great power to all fields. If he learns to catch....wow.

So for now at least, I'll trot out the cliche that this looks like a good deal for both teams. As for Campos vs Noesi, Noesi has good control and is only 24. He could do very well in Seattle.

[terrynever]

I think this deal is alot closer than some folks think. First, young pitchers will just drive you crazy sometimes and I don't view Pineda as being a "lock" for the Yankees' No. 2 starter. And even if Pineda turns out to be a stud, Montero is the kind of hitter who could be producing 110-120 RBIs a season for a decade. He has great power to all fields. If he learns to catch....wow.

So for now at least, I'll trot out the cliche that this looks like a good deal for both teams. As for Campos vs Noesi, Noesi has good control and is only 24. He could do very well in Seattle.

Seattle's offense is going to have to improve a lot for Montero to knock in 110 runs with that lineup. RBI stats are driven by the OBPs of various teams. Montero might have knocked in 110 runs for the 2012 or 2013 Yankees. In Seattle, he might knock in 85 and still have a very good year.

Edited by terrynever, 16 January 2012 - 05:00 PM.

[Puffy]

Also, with respect to the M's "window", Felix is only 25 years old. I suspect the FO and ownership would expect to contend within the next 7 years, which would obviate any reason to trade one of the best pitchers in MLB.

However, Felix is only under contract for three remaining seasons, 2012 - 2014. Felix's contract strictly defines their window as three years.

The five-year deal was heavily backloaded and he is now owed $19 million, $20 million, and $20.5 million over the next three years. If the Mariners come to believe they cannot contend within the next three years, then they have good reasons to trade him. My guess is that they want to see how the young guys develop this year (Ackley, Smoak, Montero + all those stud pitching prospects) to see if they have a shot in 2013 and 2014. At some point, if the retooling stalls, trading Felix would offer one of the quickest and most powerful infusions of talent into their system. That might not be until the trade deadline in 2013 or 2014 though. My theory on why they kept Felix and traded Pineda is that they are hoping that all the young guys will catch fire in the next year or two and don't want to stumble into the playoffs having traded Hernandez, a bonafide ace. I think they were scared enough about Pineda's attrition to go into the season with him as the #1, so they decided to try to sell high on him.

[Sampo Gida]

Montero physical held up with visa/pp issues

http://msn.foxsports...sa-issue-011912

Trade not official pending physical. Hopefully this is not similar to Carmonas case.

[ThePrideofShiner]

Montero is now in the country and the deal is expected to be finalized soon:

http://seattletimes....500_mari21.html

As an aside, I had no idea Jesus Montero has a younger brother named Jesus Montero who is in the Cardinals system. Is the younger Jesus very good?

[derekson]

Montero is now in the country and the deal is expected to be finalized soon:

http://seattletimes....500_mari21.html

As an aside, I had no idea Jesus Montero has a younger brother named Jesus Montero who is in the Cardinals system. Is the younger Jesus very good?

I had seen the 2nd Jesus Montero when looking for Montero's page on Fangraphs, but I had no idea it was his brother. From a quick look at his page on BB-Ref, he doesn't look like much of anything.

Edited by derekson, 21 January 2012 - 12:24 PM.

[jon abbey]

Trade is official:

http://yankees.lhblo...comes-official/

[terrynever]

Trade is official:

http://yankees.lhblo...comes-official/

In the AP story, Cashman says Montero might be "the best player I ever traded."

[jon abbey]

And Pineda might be the best player (in terms of future WAR from when he was acquired) that he's ever traded for, but no reason to say that part and ratchet up the pressure even more on the kid.

[terrynever]

And Pineda might be the best player (in terms of future WAR from when he was acquired) that he's ever traded for, but no reason to say that part and ratchet up the pressure even more on the kid.

There will be a lot of pressure on Montero to be a productive hitter right away in Seattle. Yeah, I know it's a competitive black hole out there right now but the fans are pretty crazy about their team. Jesus might have hit 7th for the Yankees. They're already talking about him in the middle of Seattle's lineup, fifth at the lowest.

[Freddy Linn]

And Pineda might be the best player (in terms of future WAR from when he was acquired) that he's ever traded for, but no reason to say that part and ratchet up the pressure even more on the kid.

Back of the napkin and acknowledging all caveats, Pineda would have to have Ron Guidry's career to match what Arod has contributed up to now in terms of WAR for the Yankees.

[jon abbey]

Oh, good point. OK, he has a chance to have the most WAR for the least money, or something like that. Basically he's good too.

[melonbag]

And Pineda might be the best player (in terms of future WAR from when he was acquired) that he's ever traded for, but no reason to say that part and ratchet up the pressure even more on the kid.

I agree with Freddy Linn. No need to get into a love fest with Pineda just yet.

[Compass Rosy]

However, Felix is only under contract for three remaining seasons, 2012 - 2014. Felix's contract strictly defines their window as three years.

The five-year deal was heavily backloaded and he is now owed $19 million, $20 million, and $20.5 million over the next three years. If the Mariners come to believe they cannot contend within the next three years, then they have good reasons to trade him. My guess is that they want to see how the young guys develop this year (Ackley, Smoak, Montero + all those stud pitching prospects) to see if they have a shot in 2013 and 2014. At some point, if the retooling stalls, trading Felix would offer one of the quickest and most powerful infusions of talent into their system. That might not be until the trade deadline in 2013 or 2014 though. My theory on why they kept Felix and traded Pineda is that they are hoping that all the young guys will catch fire in the next year or two and don't want to stumble into the playoffs having traded Hernandez, a bonafide ace. I think they were scared enough about Pineda's attrition to go into the season with him as the #1, so they decided to try to sell high on him.

I think this is more than a "guess" and a "theory" - it's pretty much spot on.
I will miss Michael dearly but, to say the M's need offense is the understatement of the decade and, while Jesus alone won't do it, you gotta start somewhere. I can't root for the Yanks as a team but, I will root for Michael as a pitcher and hope the trade turns out to be a win-win.

Here's the "old" and the "new"....

[Sprowl]

I will miss Michael dearly but, to say the M's need offense is the understatement of the decade and, while Jesus alone won't do it, you gotta start somewhere.

With Jesus alone, all things are possible. With Jesus, Muhammad and Buddha, they'd have a real Murderers' Row.