46 replies to this topic

[glennhoffmania]

CBS is doing a series of who would you rather haves and the latest is Pedroia and Cano.

While he was already a very good hitter, Cano has developed into one of the most feared hitters in baseball over the past two seasons, finishing in the top six of MVP voting both times. His triple slash line of .311/.365/.533 from 2010-11 is a beauty for a second baseman, not to mention the 28 homers, 46 doubles, 118 RBI and 104 runs he posted last season. It was good enough for Cano to bring home the Silver Slugger for the second consecutive season.

A model of durability as well, Cano hasn't played in less than 159 games in any of the past five seasons. Pedroia only managed 75 games in an injury-plagued 2010 season, so that's a point for Cano.

On the other hand, Pedroia played in 157, 154 and 159 games, respectively, in three of the past four seasons, so it's not like he's injury prone. Pedroia, the 2007 Rookie of the Year, also won the 2008 MVP. And Pedroia can do it all. He hit 21 home runs last season while stealing 26 bases and also winning a Gold Glove (his second). His .307/.387/.474 line is competitive with Cano's, too. Where Pedroia has a bit less home-run power, he makes up for it by getting on base. He holds a .373 to .347 advantage in career OBP.

Cano will make $14 million in 2012 while Pedroia will make $8 million, but Pedroia's salary increases in the next several years while Cano is a free agent after a 2013 club option. Age is a veritable wash, as Cano is roughly 10 months older.

Really, any which way you can divide this up, it's a very close call. Many advanced defensive metrics show Pedroia with a significant edge in range, hence the 2011 Fielding Bible award -- meaning the stat crowd views him as the best defensive second baseman in all of baseball. Cano is viewed as no better than average defensively from that perspective. Cano did win the 2010 AL Gold Glove, but Gold Glove voting has produced dubious results at times -- like Rafael Palmeiro taking the honors in 1999 while playing only 28 games in the field.

Link

As of right now the vote is 62% to 38% in favor of Cano.

[ThatsMyPeskyPole]

Meh! Love the one your with.

[brs3]

I like that fear is used to describe Cano. If you look at their splits, Pedroia has better numbers with runners on base, RISP, 2 outs w/ RISP. Cano has the edge is some areas, but they're pretty even in things like clutch numbers, according to b-ref, with Pedroia having a slight edge in a few of the stats. I'd love to poll pitchers who have faced both of them.

[JimBoSox9]

Thanks for making a thread out of this, because I had nothing else this offseason to get overwhelmingly angry about. Awesome.

[glennhoffmania]

Some of the comments below the article are very entertaining.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Some of the comments below the article are very entertaining.

I loved the guy who said that picking Pedroia over Cano was "downright retarted." Superb.

[Maurice09]

Some of the comments below the article are very entertaining.

I avoid the comments on every article on that site as the people who post on them make the HF Board posters look like geniuses.

As far as the debate, Pedroia is one of my favorite athletes ever so I cannot give an unbiased vote. I will say Cano is one of the few yankees I "like". I wouldn't mind him on my team but not to replace Pedroia.

Edited by Maurice09, 13 January 2012 - 01:12 PM.

[Frisbetarian]

For their respective careers, Pedroia is 18.1 runs above average offensively per 603 plate appearances using park adjusted linear weights, Cano is +15.5. On defense, Cano is -5.7 runs per 150 games from UZR and just about even (+0.4) according to the Fielding Bible. Pedroia's UZR is +9.6 per 150, and his FB +9.0.

Downright retarted.

[reggiecleveland]

The question wasn't best career, but who you would want now.

[Savin Hillbilly]

The question wasn't best career, but who you would want now.

On what grounds would one give a different answer to that question?

[jon abbey]

Whenever I see this kind of question, the first thing I look at is home/road OPS to see how much the hitters' numbers are affected by their home park. FWIW:

Career:

Pedroia: .893 home/.780 road
Cano: .837 home/.849 road

2011:

Pedroia: .918 home/.804 road
Cano: .885 home/.880 road

[Mystic Merlin]

And what is Fenway's park factor(s)?

And what does that tell us about their defense?

Edited by Mystic Merlin, 13 January 2012 - 03:50 PM.

[jon abbey]

And what is Fenway's park factor(s)?

And what does that tell us about their defense?

If those questions are aimed at my post, I didn't come to any overall conclusions, just adding info that no one else did previously.

[Mystic Merlin]

If those questions are aimed at my post, I didn't come to any overall conclusions, just adding info that no one else did previously.

I am begging the following questions:

1.) Are you suggesting that he is a product of Fenway?

2.) If so, how does that affect your answer to the central question of the thread?

In other words, I think merely throwing OPS numbers out there without any commentary is a bit empty, no different than if I posted error totals for both.

Edited by Mystic Merlin, 13 January 2012 - 03:57 PM.

[jon abbey]

I am begging the following questions:

1.) Are you suggesting that he is a product of Fenway?

I'm letting the numbers speak for themselves, but yes, a bit. Not nearly as much as Ian Kinsler, who has even wider splits (.922/.727 career), but it's a factor and it doesn't seem to be one for Cano.

2.) If so, how does that affect your answer to the central question of the thread?

In other words, I think merely throwing OPS numbers out there without any commentary is a bit empty.

Well, it's added info, but I intentionally didn't want to answer the question as I have no interest in getting into a pissing match over this.

If you must know, I find it hard to believe that Cano is not an above average defensive 2B, but then again he's the only one I see for 162 games. I doubt many fans of either team would take the other's player in this case, the far more interesting question is which one fans of any of the other teams would choose.

[Toe Nash]

Whenever I see this kind of question, the first thing I look at is home/road OPS to see how much the hitters' numbers are affected by their home park. FWIW:

Career:

Pedroia: .893 home/.780 road
Cano: .837 home/.849 road

2011:

Pedroia: .918 home/.804 road
Cano: .885 home/.880 road

Is that really the first thing you look at? The very first? Before like, straight OPS or WAR or something?

Edit: Oh, I see you're not trying to get into a pissing match. But doing so nonetheless.

Edited by Toe Nash, 13 January 2012 - 04:03 PM.

[jon abbey]

Is that really the first thing you look at? The very first? Before like, straight OPS or WAR or something?

Those have generally already been examined by the time I get to the discussion.

But yes, I tend to take road OPS more seriously than overall OPS, Kinsler is a great example of why. He's not the hitter than Pedroia or Cano is, and that's the stat where that becomes evident.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Good point, Jon. So we can say that, in neutral parks, Cano is the better hitter of the two. Then the question becomes, is this difference enough to offset Pedroia's defensive advantage? When I add their career road wRC and UZR and divide by road games (defined for this purpose as road PA/4.2)*, the answer I get is that Pedroia has been good for 0.61 runs per road game so far in his career, and Cano 0.58.

*Please pipe up if this formula does not in fact provide an answer (however fraught with imprecision) to the question, "how many runs per game is this guy good for on the road?" It seems like it should, but I realize I'm skating on the edge of my sabermetric competency here.

[Frisbetarian]

Those have generally already been examined by the time I get to the discussion.

But yes, I tend to take road OPS more seriously than overall OPS, Kinsler is a great example of why. He's not the hitter than Pedroia or Cano is, and that's the stat where that becomes evident.

The linear weights numbers I posted were park adjusted, and Pedroia still has a fairly significant offensive advantage ~2.6 runs per 603 PA. FWIW, the Fenway Park adjustment takes almost 16 runs from Pedroia's career numbers, so the Fenway factor is significant.

[Toe Nash]

The linear weights numbers I posted were park adjusted, and Pedroia still has a fairly significant offensive advantage ~2.6 runs per 603 PA. FWIW, the Fenway Park adjustment takes almost 16 runs from Pedroia's career numbers, so the Fenway factor is significant.

Is the park adjustment broken down by handedness? Pedroia is exceptional at taking advantage of the Monster. Actually it took him a few years to ever hit an opposite-field HR -- his landing spots for HRs were all within 50 feet of the LF line.

But an argument can be made that he should get some credit for that, and I think he'd hit well anywhere -- just not for as much power somewhere without the short porch.

[jodyreeddudley78]

If you must know, I find it hard to believe that Cano is not an above average defensive 2B, but then again he's the only one I see for 162 games. I doubt many fans of either team would take the other's player in this case, the far more interesting question is which one fans of any of the other teams would choose.

I end up watching a fair amount of Yankee games. I'm surprised that you find it hard to believe that he may not be considered above average. He has excellent range, but that isn't his problem; he simply misplays/boots the ball a lot. Overall, the metrics say he is slightly above average over his career (with a fairly large variance year to year) and that seems about right to me.

But to the people that are jumping all over JA for posting the splits, you aren't surprised that Pedroia is a better hitter at home, are you? I mean, it is pretty apparent. I would still take Pedroia, but I don't think the difference between the two is that large.

[The Flying Dutchman]

If you must know, I find it hard to believe that Cano is not an above average defensive 2B, but then again he's the only one I see for 162 games. I doubt many fans of either team would take the other's player in this case, the far more interesting question is which one fans of any of the other teams would choose.

My personal observation is that Cano can be a superb fielder, but is lackadaisical and doesn't go all out on every play. When he does make a rangy play, he sometimes has to rush the throw after trying to make the fielding look smooth.

I'm surprised they give Cano the obligatory bonus points for striking fear in opponents hearts but not plus points for Pedy being known as such a 'dirt dog' team player and leader.

[Frisbetarian]

Is the park adjustment broken down by handedness? Pedroia is exceptional at taking advantage of the Monster. Actually it took him a few years to ever hit an opposite-field HR -- his landing spots for HRs were all within 50 feet of the LF line.

But an argument can be made that he should get some credit for that, and I think he'd hit well anywhere -- just not for as much power somewhere without the short porch.

The park effects I referenced are not broken down by handeness, either for Pedroia or for Cano, who has certainly benefited from the short porch in right at the new Yankee Stadium. Since the park opened in 2009, Cano has 46 home runs in 1010 plate appearances at home vs 36 home runs in 1046 plate appearances on the road. For his career, Cano has 77 home runs at home in 2141 PA and 67 on the road in 2271 PA.

[Joshv02]

For their respective careers, Pedroia is 18.1 runs above average offensively per 603 plate appearances using park adjusted linear weights, Cano is +15.5. On defense, Cano is -5.7 runs per 150 games from UZR and just about even (+0.4) according to the Fielding Bible. Pedroia's UZR is +9.6 per 150, and his FB +9.0.

Downright retarted.

What's important about doing it this way is that you do not throw away 1/2 the sample by only looking at road numbers. Parks may effect players differently in different ways, so universal park adjustments may not always be appropriate. However, they are a much better guess than looking at only 1/2 a sample.

[jon abbey]

The park effects I referenced are not broken down by handeness, either for Pedroia or for Cano, who has certainly benefited from the short porch in right at the new Yankee Stadium. Since the park opened in 2009, Cano has 46 home runs in 1010 plate appearances at home vs 36 home runs in 1046 plate appearances on the road. For his career, Cano has 77 home runs at home in 2141 PA and 67 on the road in 2271 PA.

But don't forget that the new Yankee Stadium is the toughest in all of baseball to get doubles and triples (at least the last time I saw the numbers), which is presumably why his overall road numbers are just as strong.

Edit: Never mind, the doubles/triples factoid was true in 2009 but not in 2010/2011. The second part of the sentence stands, though, I don't think he's really benefiting if his road numbers are just as good.

[jon abbey]

Just to be clear in case I haven't been: I think the two players are extremely close overall, and you can't really go wrong either way.

But one question (a genuine question) that I brought up last time we had this discussion at length (in the Yankee forum, I'll dig it up) is how can Cano's UZR be so low yet his RF (putouts + assists) be so high? Cano's career RF/G is 4.88, Pedroia's is 4.49.

[jon abbey]

What's important about doing it this way is that you do not throw away 1/2 the sample by only looking at road numbers. Parks may effect players differently in different ways, so universal park adjustments may not always be appropriate. However, they are a much better guess than looking at only 1/2 a sample.

I agree with this to an extent, I think the truth is somewhere in between the two. I do think you can get a fairly good sense of (for lack of a better term) the "true hitting" of a player by solely looking at their road numbers, especially over a sample of multiple years, but it wouldn't be the first time I'd disagreed with overall sabermetric conventional wisdom (I also believe in catcher's ERA more than most, although maybe that's starting to change with the new pitch-framing data).

[jon abbey]

Sorry for posting so many times in a row, but a point in Pedroia's favor that I don't think's been mentioned is base-stealing, 82/20 SB/CS in his career, where Cano is a dreadful 28/25 (and probably some of the successful ones were on the back ends of double steals).

[Frisbetarian]

Just to be clear in case I haven't been: I think the two players are extremely close overall, and you can't really go wrong either way.

But one question (a genuine question) that I brought up last time we had this discussion at length (in the Yankee forum, I'll dig it up) is how can Cano's UZR be so low yet his RF (putouts + assists) be so high? Cano's career RF/G is 4.88, Pedroia's is 4.49.

Since Cano became a full time second baseman in 2005, Yankee pitchers have allowed the 3rd highest ground ball percentage in the AL at 44.2%. Since Dustin Pedroia became the Red Sox regular second baseman, 2007, the Red Sox have allowed the 2nd lowest GB% in the AL, 42.6%. Also, Red Sox pitchers have struck out 7.44 batters per 9 innings since 2007, best in the AL, while the Yanks, since 2005, have K'd 6.93 batters per game.

If you want information on how UZR and the Fielding Bible's Plus/Minus stats are calculated, they can be found here and here.

[Frisbetarian]

Sorry for posting so many times in a row, but a point in Pedroia's favor that I don't think's been mentioned is base-stealing, 82/20 SB/CS in his career, where Cano is a dreadful 28/25 (and probably some of the successful ones were on the back ends of double steals).

It's included in linear weights. For more info, just in case...

[jon abbey]

Since Cano became a full time second baseman in 2005, Yankee pitchers have allowed the 3rd highest ground ball percentage in the AL at 44.2%. Since Dustin Pedroia became the Red Sox regular second baseman, 2007, the Red Sox have allowed the 2nd lowest GB% in the AL, 42.6%.

Thanks, Fris, interesting, but the difference between 44.2% and 42.6% isn't really that much, less than the percentage difference between the raw RF totals between the two.

It's included in linear weights.

Yep, just breaking it out on its own since I brought in OPS and that doesn't include SBs.

[SMU_Sox]

I looked at wOBA, and wRC+ for offensive production. I think the linear weights paint a clearer picture of their offensive production. Pedroia has a slight edge in both statistics: wOBA .368 vs .359, and a 122 wRC+ compared to Cano's 119 (wRC is based off of wOBA but it's nice for overall perspective). Since they are so close it comes down to base-running and defense. Pedroia has a huge edge in both areas, especially defense. To me this is a no-brainer. While Cano and Pedroia are both great offensive second basemen because Pedroia is a vastly superior defender and a better base-runner he is the better 2nd baseman. That's not to say that Cano is not a fine player, as he most certainly is.
As for his splits:
His road wOBA's from 2011 descending: .359 (Cano's career wOBA - fyi), .393 (better than his home wOBA of .363), .333, .363, .326.
That's not a bad body of work away from Fenway. Didn't EV mention something about how he had to correct his partying habits on road trips? I don't want to derail the thread over that - because his road splits aren't that exaggerated aside from 2009 and 2007.

[Frisbetarian]

Thanks, Fris, interesting, but the difference between 44.2% and 42.6% isn't really that much, less than the percentage difference between the raw RF totals between the two.

It's actually a huge difference, considering the teams' pitching staffs faces some 43,500 or so batters a season. It's the difference between a top team in the AL and a bottom team.

[jon abbey]

It's actually a huge difference, considering the teams' pitching staffs faces some 43,500 or so batters a season. It's the difference between a top team in the AL and a bottom team.

OK, so 1.6% of that is 696 additional ground balls per season. Cano's additional RF is .39 per game, so 63 additional outs over 162 games, but he's probably getting close to 200 more chances (of the 696), so thanks, that makes a lot of sense now.

[drbretto]

Well, I was about to pop in here to say how they're so close it's nearly impossible to call (and to back up Jon Abby a little bit because it really didn't come off like yankee homerism to me and I thought some people were kind jumping in on him a little hard) but Fris just completely convinced me that Pedroia is clearly a superior all-around player. I mean, it's not like it's a massive difference, but I do now objectively believe that Pedroia is better, which is obviously in agreement with my subjective side which is firmly convinced that Pedroia is the second coming of Christ.

[reggiecleveland]

At one time pedroia was clearly better, but Cano has gotten on base more and now it is a wash. it is not "retarted" to pick either one.

[Frisbetarian]

At one time pedroia was clearly better, but Cano has gotten on base more and now it is a wash. it is not "retarted" to pick either one.

Since 2006, Cano's OBP's have been ,365, .353, .305, .352, .381, and .349. I don't see any evidence of a trend to back up your statement that "Cano has gotten on base more." The players are very close as hitters, with Pedroia, imo, having a slight edge. Defensively, however, Pedroia is clearly a better player, and he is also a better baserunner. Finally, the "retarded" comment was in reference to a comment left on the article this thread was based on that SH quoted.

[Lefty on the Mound]

It's actually a huge difference, considering the teams' pitching staffs faces some 43,500 or so batters a season. It's the difference between a top team in the AL and a bottom team.

Fris,

43,500 batters across a 162-game season is 268 batters per game. This number seems impossible. What am I missing here?

[Frisbetarian]

OK, so 1.6% of that is 696 additional ground balls per season. Cano's additional RF is .39 per game, so 63 additional outs over 162 games, but he's probably getting close to 200 more chances (of the 696), so thanks, that makes a lot of sense now.

Oh my, no. I meant to type that pitching staffs face some 43,500 batters over seven seasons, not one. The Yankees' pitching staff has, in fact, faced 43455 batters since Cano came up in 2005. Sorry for the confusion, but this should make a lot more sense now.

The range factor number you quote includes put outs, which for infielders are catching pop-ups, line drives, and force outs at the bag (which are affected by the extra ground balls, of course). None of the above, with the possible exception of some line drives, constitute a defensive skill, and this inclusion is one of the myriad reasons range factor is never used in informed discussions about defense anymore. The difference in assists per game between Cano and Pedroia is about 0.14 per game, or just over 20 per 150 games. Other problems with the range factor metric include the fact that it does not consider pitching staff tendencies, which has been illustrated in this example, the stat further does not consider speed of the batted ball, fielder positioning, handedness of staff, park factors, etc.

Edited by Frisbetarian, 14 January 2012 - 08:01 AM.
I was typing this when Lefty posted above. Good catch!

[jon abbey]

The range factor number you quote includes put outs, which for infielders are catching pop-ups, line drives, and force outs at the bag (which are affected by the extra ground balls, of course). None of the above, with the possible exception of some line drives, constitute a defensive skill, and this inclusion is one of the myriad reasons range factor is never used in informed discussions about defense anymore.

Cano's range towards the RF foul line to catch popups/potential bloop hits (the fairly frequent ones in the triangle of RF/2B/1B that often drop, fair or foul) seems exceptional to me, but again he's the only 2B I watch 162 games of each year.

[maufman]

I loved the guy who said that picking Pedroia over Cano was "downright retarted." Superb.

If a single person decides not to say "retarded" when they mean "stupid," for fear of sounding like this fool, then some good will have come of this.

[drbretto]

If a single person decides not to say "retarded" when they mean "stupid," for fear of sounding like this fool, then some good will have come of this.

I've stopped saying "retarded" a long time ago for this same reason. Everyone who uses it now sounds retarded to me.

[Frisbetarian]

If a single person decides not to say "retarded" when they mean "stupid," for fear of sounding like this fool, then some good will have come of this.

You're right. I used the word to mock a comment from the original article, and I should not have. I apologize.

[LesterFan]

What does Cano do better than Pedroia besides hitting for power?

[rembrat]

He has a strong arm but that's about it. Pedroia has the baseball IQ. Like by a lot.

I just wonder where Cano is going to go in terms of his body type. He is a big dude for a 2B. He was a bit more bulkier this past season than in 2010 and I think his defense suffered for it. He seemed to lose his first step.

[HriniakPosterChild]

What does Cano do better than Pedroia besides hitting for power?

Does lollygagging count?

[Manramsclan]

Serious Question: Sabremetrically speaking, is there statistical evidence of a player's ability to take advantage of a park's dimensions and quirks?

Pedrioa's bat control and righthandedness seem to suggest that if there was anyone who could purposefully take advantage of Fenway's dimensions it would be him.

I know that my eyes have seen this (his homer down the LF line against the Yankees in April of 2011 when he was scuffiling), but I wonder if there is an objective statistical record or research about this.

My question is based on the fact that Fenway is known to be a hitters park, but it didn't help Manny Alexander*. (2000 season, 50 games at home 51 games away .569 at Fenway, .596 on the road.)

I truly did not cherry pick this. He was the first one to come to mind and I looked up his 2000 stats. They are representative of my point but of course that is a small sample in the context of the question that I am suggesting.(ie many players).