29 replies to this topic

[Hendoo]

DaigoFuji Daigo Fujiwara
Nikkan Sports is reporting Daisuke Matsuzaka is recovering much quicker. Will pitch in bullpen by end of month. #RedSox j.mp/xdYgin
-soxhop411

http://www.nikkanspo...108-886520.html

Edited by Hendoo, 09 January 2012 - 06:01 PM.

[Plympton91]

DaigoFuji Daigo Fujiwara
Nikkan Sports is reporting Daisuke Matsuzaka is recovering much quicker. Will pitch in bullpen by end of month. #RedSox j.mp/xdYgin
-soxhop411

http://www.nikkanspo...108-886520.html

The end of March would be 9 months from surgery. What is the quickest recovery time ever from a TJ operation?

[Rasputin]

DaigoFuji Daigo Fujiwara
Nikkan Sports is reporting Daisuke Matsuzaka is recovering much quicker. Will pitch in bullpen by end of month. #RedSox j.mp/xdYgin
-soxhop411

http://www.nikkanspo...108-886520.html

I find that difficult to believe but hey, more pitchers in contention to pitch innings is not a bad thing.

[SoxScout]

http://sonsofsamhorn...92#entry3882592

From November 15:

Pete Abraham

Dice-K has said he'll throw off the mound in the bullpen shortly after New Year's. Way ahead of schedule.

Dec 7:

Scott Miller

Bobby V on Daisuke expectations: can't let calendar dictate his recovery process. "I expect him to be healthy."

Not unexpected.

[Sprowl]

Breaking out from the Offseason Injury thread...

The timeline for recovering from Tommy John surgery is a big question for the 2012 Red Sox. When they went under the knife:

Rich Hill: June 9, 2011. Hill has been signed to a minor-league contract.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: June 10, 2011, and most reports have him throwing ahead of schedule.
John Lackey: November 1, 2011.

Conventional wisdom is that recovery takes 9-12 months, down from 18 months during the early years of the procedure. How much variability is there in recovery, and of velocity, command and movement, what recovers first?



PS. I like the wild-and-crazy hair. A more demonstrative Matsuzaka is probably a welcome change.

[bosockboy]

Have to wonder if his quick recovery might save the Sox from signing a bigger name SP (Kuroda/Oswalt)....and why they are shopping off the clearance rack.

[IpswichSox]

I find it difficult to believe the FO would make decisions about which free agents to tartget or which pitchers to trade for now based on Dice-K's expected return. Even if he did come back, say, May 1, the FO today would have no way of knowing his effectiveness or his durability. If I were them, my mindset would be that he may be the equivalent of a cost-free, trading-deadline pickup -- and anything beyond that would be gravy. Even if they have deep insight into his recovery, I just can't think Ben et al are making personnel decisions now assuming that Dice-K will be back before the ASG IMO.

[Hyde Park Factor]

I find it difficult to believe the FO would make decisions about which free agents to tartget or which pitchers to trade for now based on Dice-K's expected return. Even if he did come back, say, May 1, the FO today would have no way of knowing his effectiveness or his durability. If I were them, my mindset would be that he may be the equivalent of a cost-free, trading-deadline pickup -- and anything beyond that would be gravy. Even if they have deep insight into his recovery, I just can't think Ben et al are making personnel decisions now assuming that Dice-K will be back before the ASG IMO.

And more likely than not, they're making decisions based on the worst case scenario: we get nothing from Dice-K in 2012, which is a very real possibility. As noted above, anything beyond half a season of replacement level pitching is gravy, but his recovery is far from certain at this point.

[joyofsox]

[The Boomer]

Me like report for much positive word's mouth after the pitching. Higher up elbow means higher up feel good for everyone.

[RedOctober3829]

Let's take Strasburg as an example. This is from Google.

September 3rd, 2010--underwent surgery.
February 10th, 2011--threw a ball for the first time
May 20th, 2011--threw off a mound
August 7th, 2011--first rehab start
September 6th, 2011--first major league start since surgery

So, Strasberg came back to the majors 12 months later. Daisuke's progress looks to be common. If he's throwing off a mound by the end of January, he should be pitching rehab assignments by the start of the season and could be back by June.

[TeddysBonefish]

I'm not sure if "play catch full of hell (shooting sensation)" is a good sign or a bad one. I do know this team needs a revitalized Dice K.

[mpjc]

FYI, a better translation of the headline would be "Matsuzaka's elbow, condition both improved."

[Hee-Seop's Fable]

Breaking out from the Offseason Injury thread...

The timeline for recovering from Tommy John surgery is a big question for the 2012 Red Sox. When they went under the knife:

Rich Hill: June 9, 2011. Hill has been signed to a minor-league contract.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: June 10, 2011, and most reports have him throwing ahead of schedule.
John Lackey: November 1, 2011.

Conventional wisdom is that recovery takes 9-12 months, down from 18 months during the early years of the procedure. How much variability is there in recovery, and of velocity, command and movement, what recovers first?



PS. I like the wild-and-crazy hair. A more demonstrative Matsuzaka is probably a welcome change.

From what I've read, I believe velocity comes back first, then movement, then command. So Dice-K should be 'good as ever' by June or July. A bit better than league average, a bit wild, and difficult to watch. But with his arm angle higher again with a healthy elbow, maybe he finishes the season with his command and effectiveness back to where he was in '07-'08, or perhaps better. Was it experiments with a lower or higher arm angle that led to Bard's failures as a minor league starter?

Waintwright seems to be on a more pedestrian pace back, but the comments I've read that he's expected not to be back to his Cy Young form until '13 seem unsubstantiated and speculative, based on somewhat outdated historical timelines. Ron Harper was never the same after blowing his ACL in his knee out in the '80's, yet it's been shown to have little effect on career paths now. T.J. surgery is showing a similar evolution. Wainwright went under the knife in March, '11.

http://www.sportsove...ury-update.html

Even if Dice-K is near average in May/June/July, so long as he's taken his time and doesn't push himself to some kind of late season relapse, that's all they need out of the 5 spot, and if his conditioning is good perhaps he improves into the playoff push. If he does, the bullpen could be devastating late in the year, and if he's not, their offense protects a pitching staff that's lacking unlimited depth, just like most other teams. Not a catastrophe. Still, I think they'd be well served to get a real major league 5th starter to compete with Aceves, Doubront, and the like for the opening day 5th spot so Dice-K has to force himself into the picture, not be depended on if he does crash and burn.

[mauidano]

Crazy looking Dice is nice! It's all good now, hopefully good to go come June.

[Hendoo]

Me like report for much positive word's mouth after the pitching. Higher up elbow means higher up feel good for everyone.

Dchong!!

[Sprowl]

Rich Hill is back on the mound in a rehab assignment:

Lefthanders Rich Hill and Andrew Miller are scheduled to start rehab assignments today with Single-A Greenville according to Bobby Valentine. The Drive host Lakewood at 7:05 p.m. Each will pitch an inning.

Hill is coming back from Tommy John surgery and Miller from a strained left hamstring. For pitchers, rehab assignments can last up to 30 days. So, at worst, the Red Sox project Hill to be back around May 7. Given that he had his surgery last June 9, that's impressive.

[maufman]

Is Hill on a major-league contract?

If not, the 30-day period is only relevant in terms of his opt-out rights, correct?

Edited by maufman, 08 April 2012 - 07:20 AM.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Is Hill on a major-league contract?

If not, the 30-day period is only relevant in terms of his opt-out rights, correct?

Hill was added to the 40-man roster during the first week of camp, so yes, his deal is a major league contract.

[someoneanywhere]

As I posted in the MiL forum, Hill looked good last night in Greenville. Had exceptional velo, and a nice, tight breaking ball -- which he obviously was there to work on, as he faced three guys and threw at least six of them. Assuming all goes well, and even accounting for a dead-arm period, he'll be ready by mid-May if not a tad sooner.

[JakeRae]

As I posted in the MiL forum, Hill looked good last night in Greenville. Had exceptional velo, and a nice, tight breaking ball -- which he obviously was there to work on, as he faced three guys and threw at least six of them. Assuming all goes well, and even accounting for a dead-arm period, he'll be ready by mid-May if not a tad sooner.

He has to be ready by May 7th or get put back on the DL. I'm hoping to see him in Boston by the end of April.

[trekfan55]

He has to be ready by May 7th or get put back on the DL. I'm hoping to see him in Boston by the end of April.

Not exactly. I think once he has been on a rehab assignment for 30 days he must be activated or released. I remember the Sox were forced to activate Ramiro Mendoza because of this.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

He has to be ready by May 7th or get put back on the DL. I'm hoping to see him in Boston by the end of April.

I am so hoping for an end-of-April package deal: Hill, Miller, and Crawford activated in place of Thomas, Bowden, and Albers.

Words cannot express how much better I would feel about the team.

[JakeRae]

Not exactly. I think once he has been on a rehab assignment for 30 days he must be activated or released. I remember the Sox were forced to activate Ramiro Mendoza because of this.

That's what I said. He has to be activated (be on the 25-man roster) or released. However, if he suffers a new injury during his rehab, I'm fairly certain there is a way to basically stop his rehab and keep him on the DL. I don't know the exact rules regarding this situation. He's not getting released. Therefore, he needs to be in Boston by May 7 unless he gets hurt again. Based on the fact that they need to build some buffer for minor setbacks into his rehab clock, he should be expected to be back by the end of April if all goes well.

[trekfan55]

That's what I said. He has to be activated (be on the 25-man roster) or released. However, if he suffers a new injury during his rehab, I'm fairly certain there is a way to basically stop his rehab and keep him on the DL. I don't know the exact rules regarding this situation. He's not getting released. Therefore, he needs to be in Boston by May 7 unless he gets hurt again. Based on the fact that they need to build some buffer for minor setbacks into his rehab clock, he should be expected to be back by the end of April if all goes well.

Question: Since he already is on the DL, if his rehab goes wrong in some way, how does a team go about placing him on the DL again? Can the rehab be "cancelled"?

[JakeRae]

Question: Since he already is on the DL, if his rehab goes wrong in some way, how does a team go about placing him on the DL again? Can the rehab be "cancelled"?

The CBA isn't entirely clear in its language but I can't recall there ever being a problem related to this. I believe the rule is that there needs to be a recurrence of the injury (or a new injury) such that the player needs to end their rehab stint. I don't know that there is any sort of minimum time that needs to be spent inactive before a new rehab assignment can begin. The most relevant section is:

a Player on the
Disabled List may be assigned to a Minor League club for up to a
maximum of twenty days (thirty days for pitchers) for each injury,
or reoccurrence of an injury, for the purpose of rehabilitation

CBA

He would never leave the DL, so technically he wouldn't be getting put back on it, but there would presumably be new injury paperwork filed (has to happen every 15 days anyway) and he would have to become inactive for at least a little while.

[Super Nomario]

I am so hoping for an end-of-April package deal: Hill, Miller, and Crawford activated in place of Thomas, Bowden, and Albers.

Words cannot express how much better I would feel about the team.

What reason is there to believe than Miller is a better pitcher than Albers? Or Bowden. Or for that matter, Thomas?

[Buzzkill Pauley]

What reason is there to believe than Miller is a better pitcher than Albers? Or Bowden. Or for that matter, Thomas?

None -- but having one pitcher you can't trust on a 12-man staff is far better than three of 13.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

I don't remember Hill having anywhere near the velocity he's showing in the minors. I thought he was more of an angles guy, using his sidearm lefthandedness to attack Lefthanders working away, I didn't remember having plus velocity. Reports have hill throwing in the mid 90's (94 to 95mph) in Greenville.

Can anyone confirm this? Did I read wrong? has he gained velocity because he finally has a healthy elbow or am I simply remembering wrong and he was always a hard thrower?

mid- nineties sidearm from a lefthander is nasty, he'll be a big help to the pen allowing Morales to possibly expand his role.

[Bigpupp]

I don't remember Hill having anywhere near the velocity he's showing in the minors. I thought he was more of an angles guy, using his sidearm lefthandedness to attack Lefthanders working away, I didn't remember having plus velocity. Reports have hill throwing in the mid 90's (94 to 95mph) in Greenville.

Can anyone confirm this? Did I read wrong? has he gained velocity because he finally has a healthy elbow or am I simply remembering wrong and he was always a hard thrower?

mid- nineties sidearm from a lefthander is nasty, he'll be a big help to the pen allowing Morales to possibly expand his role.

They are getting his pitch speeds from the same gun that had Henry Owens hit 101 on back to back pitches a few starts ago, so I assume they are off.

FWIW Rich Hill's player card at Brooks shows that he averaged 91.5 with the fastball last season.