359 replies to this topic

[SaveBooFerriss]

https://twitter.com/...835684542464000

Olney

It is interesting when one ESPN reporter flatly contradicts another ESPN source.

[IpswichSox]

Yeah, I haven't had a chance to listen to Bowden this afternoon on XM, but I wonder if he's addressing the pushback or has clarified/corrected his post.

[Clears Cleaver]

I'd still rather have Bard as the 5th, forcing Dice-K to slow down and do things more methodically, returning when he's making AAA hitters look silly and really forcing Bard back to the bullpen. We'll still want Bard as a starter in '13 when Dice-K is gone and Lackey returns (presumably), and having him make 12 starts or so helps him mature as a pitcher and be better prepared for a full season of starting in '13. Adding Aceves alone with the group they've built is a good bullpen for 1/2 the year, and with Bard it's likely to be remarkably good, or at least insulated from injuries derailing it as a strength.

Well, bard could start as fifth starter and finish the season in the bullpen. Cuts down on innIngs. This supposes top four remain healthy and bard is not one of the three best

[RedOctober3829]

As stated on this forum before, Silva and Cook will be good depth but they will have opt-out clauses in their contracts.

But Red Sox officials won’t have an indefinite amount of time to evaluate them. Silva can opt-out of his contract if he’s not on Boston’s 25-man roster in mid-April, a source told FOXSports.com. Cook can do the same on May 1.
Cook will earn a base salary of $1.5 million if he makes the big-league roster. Silva’s deal calls for a $1 million major-league split.

http://mlbbuzz.yardb...red_sox/9275366

[Hee-Seop's Fable]

One thing to keep in mind is that they may not have the luxury of waiting for Dice-K to return "when he's making AAA hitters look silly". Once he makes his first rehab start, he's got a maximum of 30 days to get his stuff in order, and at the end of those 30 days he either has to be brought up to the big club or returned to the DL.

Essentially, it will all come down to when they determine he's ready for game action as far as picking his MLB return date, as the quality of his minor league performances probably won't play a significant role.

You're right, so what I'm getting to is Dice-K and the Sox are both better served if he takes enough time to establish his command to maximize his value to us and his free agency push, even if that means starting his minor league rehab stints in mid-May rather than early April. He doesn't need to set any records to come back and pitch for the last four months of the season, and I'd contend that should reduce the chances of avoiding a relapse, and increase the likelihood of him having good command as well as good velocity. More base training is always a good thing long term for a broader foundation to peak off of. If they think he can be making rehab starts in May and back to the big leagues in June, and that Bard can pitch a full season as the #5, then they could afford to let Kuroda and even Maholm go by and rely on Aceves, Silva, Cook, Dubront, Miller etc. to fill in the missing starts. That makes me nervous more than anything else about this team - more than ending up with weak outfield depth, or Aviles or Punto playing 3rd base if/when Youkilis goes down again. Ghosts of September 2011, I guess, but 'you can never have too much pitching' is a cliche for a good reason.

Well, bard could start as fifth starter and finish the season in the bullpen. Cuts down on innIngs. This supposes top four remain healthy and bard is not one of the three best

Exactly. The value of lightening the load on both Bard and Matsuzaka by getting someone competent to fill the last spot in the rotation, or even 3/4 of it with league average or better results would really transform the whole pitching staff, especially if you're skeptical Lester/Beckett/Buchholz can throw 600 innings between them, as I am. I think 550 would be a fair mean projection. I'm bullish on Matsuzaka's return to form for 120+ innings, and on Bard's conversion to starting, and even on the composition of the bullpen, but only insofar as there is someone else to soak up the innings Cook, Silva, Aceves, Doubront and Tazawa can't.

If you figure 550 innings from the first three starters, 300 from Bailey/Melancon/Albers/Morales/Jenks/Atchison, and 250, or even 300 from Bard and Aceves, that leaves Doubront, Tazawa, Miller, Silva, Cook, et. al. with 300-350 innings to split. Sounds like a lot to me, and a low likelihood of even steady mediocrity. Someone to eat half of those would really come in handy. and unless someone takes a giant leap forward, I don't see how it happens without stretching the quality arms out too thin.

[Corsi]

Source: #RedSox remain in talks with the agent for Hiroki Kuroda.

https://twitter.com/#!/jonmorosi/status/157521408942026753

[Corsi]

Two days after signing Aaron Cook, the Red Sox are scouting another low-risk righty looking to rebound from injury.

Vicente Padilla

took leave of his native Nicaraguan winter league yesterday in order to fly to Boston, where he will be checked over today by team doctors, reports

Francisco Jarquín Soto at the Nicaraguan paper El Nuevo Diario

.

http://www.mlbtrader..._medium=twitter

Edited by Corsi, 12 January 2012 - 01:43 PM.

[The Boomer]

If he recovers from injury, that's a respectable 162 game average over his career for a #5 starter that can be reproduced at his age. His K/9 and K/BB were good during his last 3 seasons. He won't be another El Tiante recovered from the injury scrap heap, but is another low risk possible bargain for his projected role.

Edited by The Boomer, 12 January 2012 - 02:10 PM.

[C4CRVT]

Using the laws of probability, if we assign a likelihood to each of the starting pitching options to provide quality innings, eventually there will be a likelihood of a decent rotation, right?

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

Padilla reminds me of a Bartolo Colon light, although they're both fat shits so neither one is truely lite.

Maybe some lightning in a bottle, at the worst it's a guy who can be stashed at Pawtucket for injury or till his opt out.... I like him better than Cook or Silva for that role.

[rembrat]

Jon Heyman




#redsox and vicente padilla are moving toward a deal

https://twitter.com/#!/JonHeymanCBS/status/157572163245838337

It's looking more and more like Kuroda or Oswalt are not walking through that door. Unless this is a negioating ploy by Ben..

Ben: Listen, Kuroda, we'd love to have you in Boston but we are buttslamed with pitchers right now! Aaron Cook, Carlos Silva, AND Vicente Padilla.

[JimBoSox9]

Certainly, interest in Padilla flies in the face of Cherington's infamous comments. This is a guy who has a track record of clubhouse issues. I don't think he's better or cheaper enough to be someone I'm interested in compared to the current signings and other prospective ones. Pass.

http://bleacherrepor...sehen-goodnight
http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=5234052

[Doctor G]

Certainly, interest in Padilla flies in the face of Cherington's infamous comments. This is a guy who has a track record of clubhouse issues. I don't think he's better or cheaper enough to be someone I'm interested in compared to the current signings and other prospective ones. Pass.

http://bleacherrepor...sehen-goodnight
http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=5234052

Padilla's clubhouse issues IIRC largely stemmed from his tandency to hit opposing batters, and the fact that this resulted in retaliation which pissed off some of his teammates.

[kieckeredinthehead]

Using the laws of probability, if we assign a likelihood to each of the starting pitching options to provide quality innings, eventually there will be a likelihood of a decent rotation, right?

No

[Lefty on the Mound]

Padilla's clubhouse issues IIRC largely stemmed from his tandency to hit opposing batters, and the fact that this resulted in retaliation which pissed off some of his teammates.

dude hit Horse-face twice in the same game? Sign him up!

The writer says he could tell all kinds of stories about Padilla's misbehavior then declines to do so. I'm more concerned with his arm than his head at this point. He won't be seeing Boston until the coaching staff and teammates get to see him in action. Let's see if he can pitch, then decide whether he belongs in the newly sanitized clubhouse.

Edited by Lefty on the Mound, 13 January 2012 - 09:13 AM.

[rembrat]

Reports are that Oswalt has dropped his asking price to 1/8 and Kuroda to 1/10-11.

It's time to start looking for money underneath the mattresses and make an offer.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

I'd take Oswalt at 1/8$ in a cocaine heartbeat

[bombdiggz]

Reports are that Oswalt has dropped his asking price to 1/8 and Kuroda to 1/10-11.

It's time to start looking for money underneath the mattresses and make an offer.

The asking prices have come down significantly for veteran FA starters: Oswalt (said to be at $8m), Kuroda (10-11m), Edwin Jackson

https://twitter.com/#!/Buster_ESPN/status/157882886220025856

[Savin Hillbilly]

I'd take Oswalt at 1/8$ in a cocaine heartbeat

I wouldn't wait that long. Even with the back woes last year, he still made 23 starts with a 3.69 ERA, and he had his velocity back up by the end of the year.

Kuroda at $10M would be a pretty good deal too. If this report is for real, I have to think we'll be signing one or the other.

[RedOctober3829]

Colleague @jaysonst says Kuroda wants Yanks or Sox now and has lowered asking price. I smell pinstripes.

http://twitter.com/#!/AndrewMarchand/status/157939741852045312

[jsinger121]

JonHeymanCBS Jon Heyman




#redsox not expecting to offer guaranteed deals to free-agent pitchers. kuroda/oswalt unlikely. padilla, others more likely

[Freddy Linn]

I wouldn't wait that long. Even with the back woes last year, he still made 23 starts with a 3.69 ERA, and he had his velocity back up by the end of the year.

Kuroda at $10M would be a pretty good deal too. If this report is for real, I have to think we'll be signing one or the other.

With Pineda to the Yanks, one of these should be imminent, no?



Edit: Guess so, Kuroda to Yanks

Edited by Freddy Linn, 13 January 2012 - 08:27 PM.

[Clears Cleaver]

Just think what the pitching depth would like if they weren't spending $38M on Lackey and Crawford.
Madson for $10M, Kuroda for $12M, and Oswalt for $10M all on shorter years than what they committed to. Horrific management and foresight by Epstein

[One Red Seat]

We have had an entire off season to try to improve our SP by adding semi-quality starter and we have done nothing (I don't count Hill, Miller, Padilla & the other Flotsam we have added).
In the matter of an hour, NYY pick up legit #2 & #3. With all that happened, I
Was still trying to be positive about this off season but, this is a punch in the face followed by a kick to the groin.
SP went from a potential weakness for NYY to looking very, very solid in the blink of an eye

[rembrat]

You cant really predict markets but I agree, it would have been nice to have money to spend this off-season.

But, hey, Bartolo Colon is still out there, right?

[kazuneko]

So the Sox have the worst September collapse in the history of the game and the response by upper management is to make the entire focus of the offseason getting under the salary cap..
No wonder they wanted Bobby Valentine. They probably knew that weren't going to get any media attention otherwise. Its actually pretty stunning that this team cannot even afford a one-year commitment to a player like Kuroda.
This team needs to go after Oswalt ASAP or it will enter next season with substantially less pitching depth than last year's team. Otherwise you gotta love the front office's thinking: the team collapses almost entirely due to a lack of pitching depth and the only response is to bring in Bobby Valentine and let the depth decline even further...

Edited by kazuneko, 13 January 2012 - 10:00 PM.

[smastroyin]

Well, you could also argue that part of their plan this off-season was to be in the post-season last year and using those revenues and a ticket price increase to fund going over the cap. After the collapse, they could do neither.

It may also be that whether or not you think Theo was smart or made decent moves, his number one trait was selling these players to ownership and making them willing to do something. And for all we know, Theo would have been just as lukewarm on Kuroda, etc. But it sounds more like Ben and baseball ops said "this is a guy we would like but he's not a difference maker and not worth putting big money into."

Good or bad, I think right now the point is the baseball ops are not going to get the guys they want unless HWL want them as well.

[smastroyin]

Just think what the pitching depth would like if they weren't spending $38M on Lackey and Crawford.
Madson for $10M, Kuroda for $12M, and Oswalt for $10M all on shorter years than what they committed to. Horrific management and foresight by Epstein

Theo's plan was sound. If Crawford and Lackey perform to their career averages in 2011 then we aren't talking about September. If they perform to the established levels that got them their contracts, they probably win the division and you would have the same core returning for 2012, less Papelbon.

Theo's choices of players seems to have been less so, since those guys weren't about to perform. But we have talked about *that* ad naseum and of course Crawford has a good chance to come back.

I consider these two different things.

[OttoC]

Theo's plan was sound. If Crawford and Lackey perform to their career averages in 2011 then we aren't talking about September....

I think there was a lot more to the September collapse than Crawford's and Lackey's performances. The team, including them, managed to play .658 ball (79 and 41) from April 16 through August 27 (game 2). Actually, Crawford's performance from August 30 (their next game) through the end of the season was better than his total season's performance (.273./308/.475/.782 vs. .255/.289/.405/.694). During the team's 2-10 start, the club (and Lackey) were 1-1 in his starts. The team and Lackey were only 2-4 in Lackey's starts during the collapse that began August 30, but he left one of those games ahead by one run.

Daniel Bard managed to lose two of Boston's first three games and had three losses and a blown save in another team loss during the end-of-season collapse, and an ERA of 10.64 for September. In fact, Bard's performances in September for the last two seasons has been much worse than the other months: 2010--Sep .713 (.573 high for other months); 2011--.768 (.656 high for other months). My conclusions is overwork, which makes me wonder how well he'll adapt to moving to the starting rotation. It may pay off down the road but I don't have big expectations for him for the 2012 season.

[smastroyin]

Of course there is more to the collapse. But if those guys played well, it more than makes up a 1 game difference. As in, the lead is truly insurmountable.

I realize what you are saying but the implication that they had reached the asymptotic best case level of play for those three months is an idea that I reject. It might mean that even if WAR would suggest those guys would be worth 6-7 in aggregate that it would only have been 2-3 wins in practice, that still puts the Red Sox in the playoffs and with a healthy and performing Lackey their rotation actually would look pretty darn intimidating. For all the talk of the Beckett and Lester bad habit fueled implosions, they a) weren't that bad, b) with a healthy lead would have been given low stress starts or time off, and c) have a history of being pretty damn good in the playoffs. I realize this is where people chime in with "what about Lester's bad start in game 3 of the ALCS" etc. OK fine we know they aren't infallible. My point is that if you get to the playoffs with a good Crawford and Lackey (average for them is good compared to the rest of the league), you have a real shot to win your ALDS and if you win the ALDS then even September playing out the same way doesn't have the same effect on the psyche of fans and (apparently) front office.

[RedOctober3829]

Don't worry guys, Ben is close to his counterpunch to the Yankees flurry of moves.

Padilla getting closer to #redsox deal

http://twitter.com/#!/JonHeymanCBS/status/158299433673572352

[One Red Seat]

Don't worry guys, Ben is close to his counterpunch to the Yankees flurry of moves.


http://twitter.com/#!/JonHeymanCBS/status/158299433673572352

That is not a counterpunch. That is a limp wristed swing and miss with an open hand while clutching a pink purse

[bosockboy]

With Padilla/Cook/Silva/Germano in the fold....it's hard to imagine these guys would all sign here unless the club gave them some assurances there wasn't an Oswalt type signing coming. This is probably it.

[SoxScout]

With Padilla/Cook/Silva/Germano in the fold....it's hard to imagine these guys would all sign here unless the club gave them some assurances there wasn't an Oswalt type signing coming. This is probably it.

They have May 1st outs in their deals, that is their insurance. Edit: Silva's is actually mid-April.

Edited by SoxScout, 14 January 2012 - 05:48 PM.

[kazuneko]

Anyone else suspect that the only reason the Sox haven't pursued Colon is they don't think they can afford him? Damn, this offseason sucks...

[Plympton91]

We have had an entire off season to try to improve our SP by adding semi-quality starter and we have done nothing (I don't count Hill, Miller, Padilla & the other Flotsam we have added).
In the matter of an hour, NYY pick up legit #2 & #3. With all that happened, I
Was still trying to be positive about this off season but, this is a punch in the face followed by a kick to the groin.
SP went from a potential weakness for NYY to looking very, very solid in the blink of an eye

They traded for two cost controlled closers to solidify the bullpen and have all but moved Bard to the rotation. I'll be more than happy to start the season with Lester / Buchholz / Beckett / Bard and a placeholder for Matsuzaka. Kuroda's old and going from Dodger stadium to the AL East.

Let's Roll.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I suspect that they aren't pursuing Colon because he basically quit on the team the last time he was here. Padilla would be a good gamble, if he's healthy than there's a very good chance he will be good. Bard and Padilla at the end of the rotation, with Cook next in line, is decent. Oswalt would be nice, but if they can't afford him then they can't afford him.

If we just keep reminding ourselves how bad the pitchers being replaced were (Lackey, Wakefield, Miller, etc.) than this all feels a lot less daunting.

[Drek717]

Jackson is looking better than ever to me right now. Kuroda at $10M, Oswalt saying he'll take $8M, and the Yankees trading for Pineda taking them out of the market basically completely. His price per year should be equal or lower than Oswalt's. Seems like a great time to land him on a 4 year deal at ~$28M.

[bosockboy]

I suspect that they aren't pursuing Colon because he basically quit on the team the last time he was here. Padilla would be a good gamble, if he's healthy than there's a very good chance he will be good. Bard and Padilla at the end of the rotation, with Cook next in line, is decent. Oswalt would be nice, but if they can't afford him then they can't afford him.

If we just keep reminding ourselves how bad the pitchers being replaced were (Lackey, Wakefield, Miller, etc.) than this all feels a lot less daunting.

Agreed. Perspective is needed. Before the collapse the Sox played at 100+ win pace for 3-4 months with Lackey and Wakefield. To me the concern is more the health of the front three. If they are healthy we are fine. We have won a World Series with a 5.42 ERA Derek Lowe as a 3rd starter.

Edited by bosockboy, 14 January 2012 - 08:42 PM.

[Plympton91]

If we just keep reminding ourselves how bad the pitchers being replaced were (Lackey, Wakefield, Miller, etc.) than this all feels a lot less daunting.

And on the flip side of that, remember that as unlikely as it was, Garcia and Colon pitched pretty damn well. The improvement to Kuroda likely won't be that great.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Jackson is looking better than ever to me right now. Kuroda at $10M, Oswalt saying he'll take $8M, and the Yankees trading for Pineda taking them out of the market basically completely. His price per year should be equal or lower than Oswalt's.

Given that he is 28 and healthy, while Oswalt is 34 and a health question mark, I'm not sure that follows. Oswalt at his peak was a much better pitcher than Jackson has been so far. But Oswalt is past his peak, while Jackson may just be reaching his. I wouldn't be surprised if Jackson gets 4/$40M or thereabouts.

[SoxScout]

jonmorosi: #RedSox are maintaining active dialogue with free agent Roy Oswalt, sources said Sunday.

That's the 'aw, fuck it' spirit, guys.

[Hyde Park Factor]

Agreed. Perspective is needed. Before the collapse the Sox played at 100+ win pace for 3-4 months with Lackey and Wakefield. To me the concern is more the health of the front three. If they are healthy we are fine. We have won a World Series with a 5.42 ERA Derek Lowe as a 3rd starter.

because for 3 brief games he pitched like vintage Pedro. A very large part of Lowe's dominance that post season was the fact that he had absolutely nothing to lose - he was heading into free agency and it didn't look like he'd be back here, so his anxiety was never a factor. Had he pitched to a 5.42 era in the post season, chances are we're still waiting for a WS title.

[bosockboy]

because for 3 brief games he pitched like vintage Pedro. A very large part of Lowe's dominance that post season was the fact that he had absolutely nothing to lose - he was heading into free agency and it didn't look like he'd be back here, so his anxiety was never a factor. Had he pitched to a 5.42 era in the post season, chances are we're still waiting for a WS title.

Fair enough....let's just say we were a 98 win dominant team with Derek Lowe pitching to a 5.42 ERA. And a Grady away from winning a pennant with John Burkett as a playoff starter. The bigger point is we have a strong front three and an elite offense....we should be OK.

[rembrat]

That's the 'aw, fuck it' spirit, guys.

According to a major league source, even though Oswalt’s asking price on a one-year deal figures to be lower that the $10 million given to Hiroki Kuroda by the Yankees, the Red Sox are taking the same stance with Oswalt as they did with Kuroda — in order to sign the pitcher at his current asking price a corresponding roster move would have to made in order to free up payroll.

http://fullcount.wee...ign-roy-oswalt/

Which almost certainly means trading Kevin Youkilis. Which shouldn't be hard since he can be traded as a 3B or a 1B and you can use it to address RF. The Brewers and the Indians are looking for a 1B. Youkilis for Corey Hart would make sense if Hart wasn't making $9MM in 2012. Then there is Youkilis for Choo which would be fucking awesome but probably not likely.

But then of course you are left with Avlies or Punto full time at 3B. And I'm not smart enough to figure out which scenario (Youk traded for a RF - sign Oswalt - Aviles/Punto @ 3B or doing nothing) would net them more wins.

EDIT: added link

Edited by rembrat, 16 January 2012 - 11:32 AM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Trading Youkilis to make room for Oswalt makes no sense to me. I'd much rather have Youkilis and Padilla than Aviles and Oswalt. This offense needs Youks in it. I'd like to think that Scutaro would be the guy they'd trade, although he's not easy to replace either. Offering Papi arbitration is a major problem, getting him to accept a 2 year, $20M deal would give them flexibility to add a starter, perhaps, but if he's going to get $15M in arb, there's no incentive to do it.

It's a shame the Sox not really have any minor leaguers ready to contribute, any moveto cut payroll damages the talent on the field. The contracts they'd love to move are not possible to move.

[Plympton91]

http://fullcount.wee...ign-roy-oswalt/

Which almost certainly means trading Kevin Youkilis. Which shouldn't be hard since he can be traded as a 3B or a 1B and you can use it to address RF. The Brewers and the Indians are looking for a 1B. Youkilis for Corey Hart would make sense if Hart wasn't making $9MM in 2012. Then there is Youkilis for Choo which would be fucking awesome but probably not likely.

But then of course you are left with Avlies or Punto full time at 3B. And I'm not smart enough to figure out which scenario (Youk traded for a RF - sign Oswalt - Aviles/Punto @ 3B or doing nothing) would net them more wins.

EDIT: added link

Can't see that as at all realistic. You don't trade your starting third baseman for whom you have no accepable replacement in order to upgrade the 5th starter slot. Even though Lackey and Crawford are the albatross contracts, the Jenks contract is really the short-term gum in the works. That $6 million would be very handy right now.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

I am willing to bet the house that Oswalt signs with St. Louis....

It's kind of silly that a team with the highest ticket prices in baseball and which has seemigly endless revenue streams is now pinching pennies to get under an arbitrary luxury tax number.

Is it possilble that there would be some other way to "adjust" contracts to make this work? Signing Ortiz to a two year/18$ deal with deferred money? or possibly having Crawford or Gonzalez restructure their deals to defer/ add option years etc. etc.

[rembrat]

Can't see that as at all realistic. You don't trade your starting third baseman for whom you have no accepable replacement in order to upgrade the 5th starter slot.

Nonsense. If Oswalt signs here he steps in as your #3 behind the most stable guys, Lester and Beckett. Buchholz is still a big question mark and so are Bard and the Silva/Cook/Padillas.

Anyways, Rudy,

Trading Youkilis to make room for Oswalt makes no sense to me. I'd much rather have Youkilis and Padilla than Aviles and Oswalt.

Is not at all what I said. A Youkilis trade would be used to upgrade RF not just make room for Oswalt. And clearing Scutaro's $6MM probably still leaves them a bit short.

Edited by rembrat, 16 January 2012 - 12:29 PM.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

Maybe its simply time to empty out the farm for a young/good cost controlled starter? I know it sucks to trade high upside prospects for such a blatent need (meaning you sometimes get raped by opposing GM's), but I worry about punting on this and possibly sacrificing a year where the core talent isn't getting any younger. This team is built to win now, I'd hate to chance that becuase of one rotation spot.

The problem is that putting Bard in the rotation is already creating a huge question in a rotation that already has questions in Buch's health and the #5 slot