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How are the Celtics going to do this year?


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Poll: How are the Celtics going to do this year? (139 member(s) have cast votes)

You've seen 3 games. How many do they win out of 66?

  1. 55 or more (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  2. 51 to 54 (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  3. 47 to 50 (2 votes [1.48%])

    Percentage of vote: 1.48%

  4. 43 to 46 (12 votes [8.89%])

    Percentage of vote: 8.89%

  5. 39 to 42 (41 votes [30.37%])

    Percentage of vote: 30.37%

  6. 35 to 38 (41 votes [30.37%])

    Percentage of vote: 30.37%

  7. 31 to 34 (28 votes [20.74%])

    Percentage of vote: 20.74%

  8. 27 to 30 (6 votes [4.44%])

    Percentage of vote: 4.44%

  9. 23 to 26 (4 votes [2.96%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.96%

  10. 19 to 22 (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  11. 15 to 18 (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  12. 11 to 14 (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  13. 10 or fewer (1 votes [0.74%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.74%

Do they make the playoffs/how far do they go?

  1. Win it all (3 votes [2.22%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.22%

  2. Lose in the Finals (1 votes [0.74%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.74%

  3. Lose in the Conference Finals (14 votes [10.37%])

    Percentage of vote: 10.37%

  4. Lose in the 2nd round (52 votes [38.52%])

    Percentage of vote: 38.52%

  5. Lose in the 1st round (51 votes [37.78%])

    Percentage of vote: 37.78%

  6. Don't make the playoffs (14 votes [10.37%])

    Percentage of vote: 10.37%

Vote

#101 Grin&MartyBarret

  • 3277 posts

Posted 16 January 2012 - 08:31 AM

Three team deal which involves us sending Ray Allen to Team A, Team A sends big man to Sixers (who then amnesty Brand) and Sixers send us Turner. Tricky part is finding a Team A.


I'm really glad you brought this up again.

#102 mcpickl

  • 2082 posts

Posted 16 January 2012 - 02:55 PM

I think OKC is going to let the deadline come and go for Westbrook. If the Thunder max out Westbrook now, he could retroactively be awarded an extra five percent under the Rose Rule. OKC will probably let Westbrook go to restricted free agency where it can still match any offer and likely would.


I agree. If I'm Minny/OKC I let both wait til the offseason.

If you are willing to give them the max now, why not wait til the offseason to do so? You have nothing to lose. The most any team could offer them is less than Minny/OKC could offer them now. Sometimes teams, usually poorly run ones, are worried about offending their players so they max them out early. There is no business sense in doing so. It's more likely Minny offers Love the max now, as he's the face of their franchise and they've been a joke since KG left. I think OKC holds the line for now and waits til summer.

#103 AMS25

  • 931 posts

Posted 16 January 2012 - 04:36 PM

I agree. If I'm Minny/OKC I let both wait til the offseason.

If you are willing to give them the max now, why not wait til the offseason to do so? You have nothing to lose. The most any team could offer them is less than Minny/OKC could offer them now. Sometimes teams, usually poorly run ones, are worried about offending their players so they max them out early. There is no business sense in doing so. It's more likely Minny offers Love the max now, as he's the face of their franchise and they've been a joke since KG left. I think OKC holds the line for now and waits til summer.


Yep, I think OKC will have to weigh the Westbrook deal carefully, for the team will have to pay Ibaka and Harden some real money soon, too. OKC may have to decide whether to max out on Westbrook, or let him walk and turn to Maynor, who could easily be a starting PG in the NBA. In some ways, the Maynor injury may turn out to be a blessing in disguise (in the long run -- in the short run, it hurts the team). The Maynor injury will allow OKC to give some minutes to Reggie Jackson and to see what they have with him. Could he be a credible PG option? Or, at least a back-up? We'll see.

#104 radsoxfan


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  • 7651 posts

Posted 16 January 2012 - 05:38 PM

Yep, I think OKC will have to weigh the Westbrook deal carefully, for the team will have to pay Ibaka and Harden some real money soon, too. OKC may have to decide whether to max out on Westbrook, or let him walk and turn to Maynor, who could easily be a starting PG in the NBA. In some ways, the Maynor injury may turn out to be a blessing in disguise (in the long run -- in the short run, it hurts the team). The Maynor injury will allow OKC to give some minutes to Reggie Jackson and to see what they have with him. Could he be a credible PG option? Or, at least a back-up? We'll see.


That's giving Maynor too much credit. If he is ever a starter, he will be one of the worst starters in the league. Over his career, he has ranged from 46-48% True Shooting Percentage. And he was playing horrible this year before he got hurt (small sample size of course). He is also very skinny and can get pushed around on D. He's 24 years old too, so its not like he's super young with a ton of upside. He's actually older than Westbrook.

He is a decent distributor, and probably will stick as a back-up for a while. But he is just another random replaceable backup PG. The drop off from Westbrook to Maynor is gigantic.

Edited by radsoxfan, 16 January 2012 - 05:39 PM.


#105 AMS25

  • 931 posts

Posted 16 January 2012 - 06:16 PM

That's giving Maynor too much credit. If he is ever a starter, he will be one of the worst starters in the league. Over his career, he has ranged from 46-48% True Shooting Percentage. And he was playing horrible this year before he got hurt (small sample size of course). He is also very skinny and can get pushed around on D. He's 24 years old too, so its not like he's super young with a ton of upside. He's actually older than Westbrook.

He is a decent distributor, and probably will stick as a back-up for a while. But he is just another random replaceable backup PG. The drop off from Westbrook to Maynor is gigantic.


You are correct. Westbrook is way more valuable than Maynor, who is offensively-challenged. But, this is OKC, a small-market team. It will have to behave more like the Rays, and less like the Red Sox (and Celtics). That means watching superstars walk to maintain a certain cost structure. In many ways, Harden performs the same functions as Westbrook, in that he can be instant offense. He is also valuable on defense. So, he could replace those aspects of Westbrook in the starting lineup. There's no reason why the Thunder couldn't use Maynor in the starting line-up to be a distributor. (The line-up currently includes Sefalosha, primarily a defensive specialist who is offensively challenged.) The challenge would then become building/maintaining a solid second unit (which Harden currently anchors). That's where Reggie Jackson may come into play.

#106 radsoxfan


  • SoSH Member


  • 7651 posts

Posted 16 January 2012 - 06:49 PM

You are correct. Westbrook is way more valuable than Maynor, who is offensively-challenged. But, this is OKC, a small-market team. It will have to behave more like the Rays, and less like the Red Sox (and Celtics). That means watching superstars walk to maintain a certain cost structure. In many ways, Harden performs the same functions as Westbrook, in that he can be instant offense. He is also valuable on defense. So, he could replace those aspects of Westbrook in the starting lineup. There's no reason why the Thunder couldn't use Maynor in the starting line-up to be a distributor. (The line-up currently includes Sefalosha, primarily a defensive specialist who is offensively challenged.) The challenge would then become building/maintaining a solid second unit (which Harden currently anchors). That's where Reggie Jackson may come into play.


I agree with your overall premise. But I was just pointing out I don't think Maynor is any good. Therefore, I wouldn't use the backup PG situation for OKC as an example of potentially replacing a high priced star with a good cost controlled young player. Maynor isn't a good young player who can give you 80% of Westbrook's value for 20% of the cost. Obviously the jury is out on Jackson since he has barely played. But Maynor has gotten enough of a chance that i think its fair to say he is simply a mediocre 9th man who won't kill you if he plays 15-20 minutes a game.

Sure he could be put into the starting lineup, but he is the definition of a replaceable backup PG. The Celtics could replace Rondo with Dooling and save some money too. But that doesn't mean Dooling is any good, or any better than about 30 other guys out there that can provide similar value.

#107 teddykgb

  • 3456 posts

Posted 16 January 2012 - 06:51 PM

Just don't buy that argument. The NBA is a salary cap league where player movement is heavily restricted, there's really no valid argument for the Thunder having to act like the Rays. They have to figure out how to surround Durant with enough talent to win while staying within the salary cap, which is a heck of a difficult job, but not anything like baseball.

There's certainly enough room to have Durant and Westbrook and other players. Your point is still valid enough--that maybe Westbrook is going to be paid too much to fit into their cap plans and could be replaced by someone who will be more effective within their group and cost structure--but it also seems highly unlikely. OK City just isn't likely to be forced into a situation where they really need to trade him.

#108 mcpickl

  • 2082 posts

Posted 16 January 2012 - 07:17 PM

Just don't buy that argument. The NBA is a salary cap league where player movement is heavily restricted, there's really no valid argument for the Thunder having to act like the Rays. They have to figure out how to surround Durant with enough talent to win while staying within the salary cap, which is a heck of a difficult job, but not anything like baseball.

There's certainly enough room to have Durant and Westbrook and other players. Your point is still valid enough--that maybe Westbrook is going to be paid too much to fit into their cap plans and could be replaced by someone who will be more effective within their group and cost structure--but it also seems highly unlikely. OK City just isn't likely to be forced into a situation where they really need to trade him.


It's going to get tricky to keep everybody though, because of the new NBA luxury tax rules that go into effect after next season(2013-14)

At that point every dollar over the luxury tax, it's now 70M and expected to remain similar because of players receiving lower BRI, will be taxed much heavier. It's current $1 for every $1 over. It will be $1.50 per $1 for first $5M over. Then every additional $5M over it will be taxed at $1.75, $2.50, then keeps going up another 75cents every 5M after.

OKC is already committed to almost 34M in 2013 to just 4 players(Durant, Perkins, Thabo and Collison). Westbrook is up after this year, Harden the next. If they get in the ballpark of 25-30M combined, OKC is already at 60M or more for just 6 guys. Even if they just filled the roster with minimum guys, they're pushing up against the tax. They'd be way over filling out the team with good players.

Paying that tax may be palatable in LA and Dallas. Might be a tougher thing to do in a lower revenue town like OKC.

#109 Riles335


  • Defiantly Definite


  • 506 posts

Posted 16 January 2012 - 10:30 PM

These big games are frustrating. No doubt about it. They have been one basket away in the Knicks, Heat, Mavericks, and Thunder games from taking the lead within two minutes or winning the game down the stretch. There is still something left with this team.

Does anyone else feel that they have had a very hard schedule to kick things off?

#110 SoxScout


  • Maalox Territory


  • 30160 posts

Posted 16 January 2012 - 10:34 PM

Does anyone else feel that they have had a very hard schedule to kick things off?


Sagarin has Boston 27th. ESPN 26th.

#111 Riles335


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  • 506 posts

Posted 16 January 2012 - 10:36 PM

Sagarin has Boston 27th. ESPN 26th.


Thank you for that.

#112 RoDaddy

  • 1251 posts

Posted 16 January 2012 - 10:59 PM

These big games are frustrating. Does anyone else feel that they have had a very hard schedule to kick things off?

Actually, they've had an average schedule: 6 games against winning teams, and 6 against losing teams. However, the recent 5 game losing streak has been against elite teams so it's not time to write the C's off just yet. I even think there's room for optimism as Bass has played well so far, PP finally had a breakout game tonight, and Pietrus looks like a possible decent replacement for Jeff Green. The recent skid has definitely brought back bad memories of the pre-Big 3 years, but this team is a work in process and it's still early.

Edited by RoDaddy, 16 January 2012 - 10:59 PM.


#113 AMS25

  • 931 posts

Posted 17 January 2012 - 09:10 AM

It's going to get tricky to keep everybody though, because of the new NBA luxury tax rules that go into effect after next season(2013-14)

At that point every dollar over the luxury tax, it's now 70M and expected to remain similar because of players receiving lower BRI, will be taxed much heavier. It's current $1 for every $1 over. It will be $1.50 per $1 for first $5M over. Then every additional $5M over it will be taxed at $1.75, $2.50, then keeps going up another 75cents every 5M after.

OKC is already committed to almost 34M in 2013 to just 4 players(Durant, Perkins, Thabo and Collison). Westbrook is up after this year, Harden the next. If they get in the ballpark of 25-30M combined, OKC is already at 60M or more for just 6 guys. Even if they just filled the roster with minimum guys, they're pushing up against the tax. They'd be way over filling out the team with good players.

Paying that tax may be palatable in LA and Dallas. Might be a tougher thing to do in a lower revenue town like OKC.


This. Plus, OKC is not a "destination city" like Miami or New York. Free agents do not look at OKC as the place to be. (I doubt whether Dwight Howard is saying right now to his agent, "I'd love to play in OKC! Put it on my trade list.") OKC can obtain good players through trade, but otherwise it will have to draft and develop, draft and develop, draft and develop. In that sense, even though the NBA is all about the cap, OKC will have to be more like the Rays than the Red Sox.

#114 dolomite133


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Posted 17 January 2012 - 09:20 AM

This. Plus, OKC is not a "destination city" like Miami or New York. Free agents do not look at OKC as the place to be. (I doubt whether Dwight Howard is saying right now to his agent, "I'd love to play in OKC! Put it on my trade list.") OKC can obtain good players through trade, but otherwise it will have to draft and develop, draft and develop, draft and develop. In that sense, even though the NBA is all about the cap, OKC will have to be more like the Rays than the Red Sox.


In the NBA great players attract free agents and title chasers. Thus if they retain their core they will have pull.

#115 Marbleheader


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  • 7074 posts

Posted 17 January 2012 - 09:33 AM

Blow it up. Make everyone available. Start over.

Ditto.

This team's going nowhere. Deal Garnett and Ray at the deadline and Pierce over the summer. Get some pieces, don't make the same mistake the org made in the early 90's. Pierce won his ring here, and you can absolutely sell the fans on giving him a chance to get another before he retires.

#116 teddykgb

  • 3456 posts

Posted 17 January 2012 - 11:07 AM

It's going to get tricky to keep everybody though, because of the new NBA luxury tax rules that go into effect after next season(2013-14)

At that point every dollar over the luxury tax, it's now 70M and expected to remain similar because of players receiving lower BRI, will be taxed much heavier. It's current $1 for every $1 over. It will be $1.50 per $1 for first $5M over. Then every additional $5M over it will be taxed at $1.75, $2.50, then keeps going up another 75cents every 5M after.

OKC is already committed to almost 34M in 2013 to just 4 players(Durant, Perkins, Thabo and Collison). Westbrook is up after this year, Harden the next. If they get in the ballpark of 25-30M combined, OKC is already at 60M or more for just 6 guys. Even if they just filled the roster with minimum guys, they're pushing up against the tax. They'd be way over filling out the team with good players.

Paying that tax may be palatable in LA and Dallas. Might be a tougher thing to do in a lower revenue town like OKC.


Why? The Thunder are finishing in the top 10-12 of the league in attendance. They've got probably the league's best player in town and they're going to be winning for a while, are they really going to struggle to come up with an extra 10-20 million? I'm just not buying it. We'll see the same thing play out there that has played out in other cities, people will take a discount to go play with a team with a shot at the title, OKC will have to find some money to pay some Lux Tax, but I really don't see it as being limiting in the TB sense, that salary cap is simply way too restrictive for there to be any allusions to baseball's finances. OKC will likely do just fine in attracting talent to come play with Kevin Durant.

#117 AMS25

  • 931 posts

Posted 17 January 2012 - 11:36 AM

Why? The Thunder are finishing in the top 10-12 of the league in attendance. They've got probably the league's best player in town and they're going to be winning for a while, are they really going to struggle to come up with an extra 10-20 million? I'm just not buying it. We'll see the same thing play out there that has played out in other cities, people will take a discount to go play with a team with a shot at the title, OKC will have to find some money to pay some Lux Tax, but I really don't see it as being limiting in the TB sense, that salary cap is simply way too restrictive for there to be any allusions to baseball's finances. OKC will likely do just fine in attracting talent to come play with Kevin Durant.

Not necessarily true. This year, there was lots of talk about Shane Battier coming to the Thunder; in fact, Durant was lobbying for him to come to OKC. But where did Battier go? Miami. This is not a surprise to those of us who live close to OKC. Poor Durant; when he moved here, he was living in a gated community full of retired energy execs. Good times, I'm sure.

#118 Brickowski

  • 3594 posts

Posted 17 January 2012 - 01:47 PM

If a player has a wife or steady girlfriend, location means less than it does for a player who needs to go out and get laid by someone new every night.

#119 nighthob

  • 2822 posts

Posted 17 January 2012 - 02:08 PM

Can we all agree that this is the right answer?

Posted Image

#120 Lose Remerswaal


  • Leaves after the 8th inning


  • 22207 posts

Posted 17 January 2012 - 04:12 PM

Numbers are creeping downwards.

Poll totals as of now:
<ol> 55 or more (0 votes [0.00%])
Percentage of vote: 0.00% <li>51 to 54 (0 votes [0.00%])
Percentage of vote: 0.00% <li>47 to 50 (2 votes [1.59%])
Percentage of vote: 1.59% <li>43 to 46 (11 votes [8.73%])
Percentage of vote: 8.73% <li>39 to 42 (41 votes [32.54%])
Percentage of vote: 32.54% <li>35 to 38 (42 votes [33.33%])
Percentage of vote: 33.33% <li>31 to 34 (21 votes [16.67%])
Percentage of vote: 16.67% <li>27 to 30 (5 votes [3.97%])
Percentage of vote: 3.97% <li>23 to 26 (3 votes [2.38%])
Percentage of vote: 2.38% <li>19 to 22 (0 votes [0.00%])
Percentage of vote: 0.00% <li>15 to 18 (0 votes [0.00%])
Percentage of vote: 0.00% <li>11 to 14 (0 votes [0.00%]) <span style="width: 0%;"><span>Percentage of vote%9<li>39 to 42 (41 votes [32.54%])
Percentage of vote: 32.54% <li>35 to 38

#121 mcpickl

  • 2082 posts

Posted 17 January 2012 - 09:01 PM

Why? The Thunder are finishing in the top 10-12 of the league in attendance. They've got probably the league's best player in town and they're going to be winning for a while, are they really going to struggle to come up with an extra 10-20 million? I'm just not buying it. We'll see the same thing play out there that has played out in other cities, people will take a discount to go play with a team with a shot at the title, OKC will have to find some money to pay some Lux Tax, but I really don't see it as being limiting in the TB sense, that salary cap is simply way too restrictive for there to be any allusions to baseball's finances. OKC will likely do just fine in attracting talent to come play with Kevin Durant.


Attendance ain't everything.

Luxury boxes/support from other business in town, advertising, local TV massive part of revenue.

I'd imagine OKC is in the lower third of the NBA in those categories.

And it's not just about coming up with another ten million. If you want to grab a player that puts you ten million over, but it costs you 26 million in salary and tax to have him, I'd imagine a smaller market team might decide that player isn't worth that absurd price.

#122 jmcc5400

  • 1823 posts

Posted 23 January 2012 - 11:48 PM

With the dismantling of Orlando, the 7-9 C's are currently the 7th seed in the East.

If we can get Washington into the 2 seed, I like our chances in the 1st round.

Edited by jmcc5400, 23 January 2012 - 11:50 PM.