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Sox trade Reddick (and other stuff) for Bailey


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#1 ivanvamp


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Posted 28 December 2011 - 05:09 PM

Being discussed on the main board. Reddick + for Andrew Bailey.

Personally, I like the move for the bullpen. Bailey and Melancon are both solid. The question now is what to do with RF. They have Kalish, but who knows what he'll be like coming off his injury-plagued 2011 season. There are still some interesting free agents out there, however.

Jonny Gomes
- 2011: .209/.325/.389/.714, 94 ops+ .... So that's not too good. But the two years prior he was pretty solid: 792 ab, 38 hr, 137 rbi, .266/.331/.470/.801, 111 ops+. Plus, he hits lefties pretty well. Career vs. LHP: .281/.375/.501/.877, 39 hr, 128 rbi in just 770 ab (projects to 28 hr, 91 rbi in 550 ab). So he'd make for a pretty good, and inexpensive, platoon partner for Kalish.

Andruw Jones
- 2011: .247/.356/.495/.851, 122 ops+, 13 hr, 33 rbi in 190 ab. 2011 splits vs. LHP: .286/.384/.540/.923, 8 hr, 25 rbi in just 126 ab.

Ryan Ludwick
- 2011: .237/.310/.363/.674, 90 ops+. Not very good, obviously. However, from 2008-2010 he put up this: .273/.344/.489/.833, 121 ops+, 76 hr, 279 rbi in 1514 ab.

Ryan Spilborghs
- 2011: .210/.283/.305/.588, 52 ops+. Triple yuck. However, in 2010 he put up: .279/.360/.437/.797, 102 ops+. His career vs. LHP: .273/.357/.443/.799. So again, not a bad platoon partner.

So I think the Sox could put together a reasonably productive, and very inexpensive, RF for 2012. Let's not forget, to improve upon last year's RF production, the Sox don't really need a whole lot. Here's what the Sox' total RF production was last year: 584 ab, 68 r, 136 h, 14 hr, 58 rbi, .233/.299/.353/.652. That .652 ranked them #29 (out of 30) in all of MLB. So while some folks might be unhappy with this trade, the reality is that the Sox got a dynamite relief pitcher and gave up production at a position that, frankly, it won't be very difficult to replace.

EDIT: Just realized that the Sox also got OF Ryan Sweeney in the deal. 26 years old, LHB, stats aren't terribly impressive.

Edited by ivanvamp, 28 December 2011 - 05:11 PM.


#2 pdub

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Posted 28 December 2011 - 05:12 PM

This is the kind of deal we should have completed before Beltran was taken off the market. Oh well, I'm glad we have a young and cheap closer now.

#3 Minneapolis Millers

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Posted 28 December 2011 - 05:17 PM

Best cost-effective relief arm available. Plus we replace Reddick's LH bat with Sweeney, leaving us in the same position for RF, with Kalish repsenting the future but recovering in AAA for the first few months. Still need a RH bat to platoon with Sweeney (who has an ok .750 OPS v. RHers). But Bailey's low cost gives them some money to spend in RF or on another SP.

Edited by Minneapolis Millers, 28 December 2011 - 05:17 PM.


#4 ivanvamp


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Posted 28 December 2011 - 05:21 PM

This is the kind of deal we should have completed before Beltran was taken off the market. Oh well, I'm glad we have a young and cheap closer now.


The only issue with Bailey is health (granted, that's not a minor issue). His numbers are tremendous. Career stats: 2.07 era, 0.95 whip, 206 era+, 9.0 k/9. Just 27 years old. Dynamic stuff. Kid is an outstanding pitcher.

Now the Sox make a cheap move to form a platoon in RF, and they'll almost certainly improve upon last year's production from RF, so that's an upgrade. Then they can afford to sign Oswalt to a one-year deal. So you're now looking at:

C - Saltalamacchia, Shoppach
1b - Gonzalez
2b - Pedroia
3b - Youkilis
SS - Scutaro
LF - Crawford
CF - Ellsbury
RF - Kalish/platoon/Sweeney
DH - Ortiz
IF - Alives, Punto
OF - RF platoon guy, McDonald

SP - Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Bard, Oswalt (?)
RP - Aceves, Albers, Jenks, Melancon, Morales, Atchison, Bailey

Bard won't be able to pitch more than 150 innings, so you could plug Aceves in there to cover the difference. That's a pretty good team right there.

Edited by ivanvamp, 28 December 2011 - 05:22 PM.


#5 Kilgore A. Trout


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Posted 28 December 2011 - 05:53 PM

Definitely an upgrade in the pen. Bailey is a good reliever, with some real sick numbers. Maybe he won't be as good as Paps was, but I see no reason to assume he can't or won't be. We'll see.
I'm okay with Sweeney in RF. At least as opposed to Reddick. I think its a wash there. And possibly only until Kalish shows he's good to go anyway. Though he might still be getting another year on the farm now depending on how Sweeney does.
It would be nice to get a solid every day player in RF, but I don't know if that's even available right now. That Cuban kid, okay, maybe that could be a good idea. But he might be too expensive for someone who hasn't faced MLB pitching yet, so is still an unknown quantity. Beyond him, none of the other possibilities I'm aware of sound all that good. I'd rather just get a RH platoon and call it a day out there.

#6 mBiferi

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Posted 28 December 2011 - 05:54 PM

This is the kind of deal we should have completed before Beltran was taken off the market. Oh well, I'm glad we have a young and cheap closer now.



Eh, I think the Beltran ship sailed the moment Ortiz accepted arb.

I love this trade. You give up Josh Reddick and two lottery tickets for a pretty damn good closer and someone who you can take a flier on as Ryan Sweeney is. Sign Oswalt/Kuroda and call it an offseason.

Ells
Pedroia
Gonzo
Youks
Ortiz
Salty
Scutaro
Crawford
Kalish

Bench
Shoppach
Sweeney/Darnell
Punto
Aviles

Rotation

Beckett
Lester
Buchholz
Kuroda/Oswalt
Bard

Pen
Bailey
Melancon
Aceves
Jenks
Morales
Atchinson

That team is perfectly capable of winning 95 games or more.

All in all, Ben traded: Lowrie, Weiland, Reddick, Head and Alcantara for Melancon and Bailey... That's a pretty decent trade if you ask me.

#7 SoxBrainTrust

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Posted 28 December 2011 - 05:55 PM

Kalish and Sweeney are both LHB so it won't be a true platoon. This looks like Sweeney will start unless they can find someone better. Defensively he is a very valuable #4. McDonald will be gone if the SOX can wrap up another RF that hits from the right side. SOX will pick up either another starter or 2-3 AAAA guys and see if one can look good enough to break with the team this spring.

The only issue with Bailey is health (granted, that's not a minor issue). His numbers are tremendous. Career stats: 2.07 era, 0.95 whip, 206 era+, 9.0 k/9. Just 27 years old. Dynamic stuff. Kid is an outstanding pitcher.

Now the Sox make a cheap move to form a platoon in RF, and they'll almost certainly improve upon last year's production from RF, so that's an upgrade. Then they can afford to sign Oswalt to a one-year deal. So you're now looking at:

C - Saltalamacchia, Shoppach
1b - Gonzalez
2b - Pedroia
3b - Youkilis
SS - Scutaro
LF - Crawford
CF - Ellsbury
RF - Kalish/platoon/Sweeney
DH - Ortiz
IF - Alives, Punto
OF - RF platoon guy, McDonald

SP - Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Bard, Oswalt (?)
RP - Aceves, Albers, Jenks, Melancon, Morales, Atchison, Bailey

Bard won't be able to pitch more than 150 innings, so you could plug Aceves in there to cover the difference. That's a pretty good team right there.



#8 plucy

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Posted 28 December 2011 - 06:24 PM

Great deal for the Sox. Risky? Sure but a solid if not potentially excellent late inning combo for the next three years.

As for RF, agree that it was basically nonproductive last year. While having the second most fWAR for Red Sox OFs, Reddick accumulated much of his WAR while subbing in LF for Crawford.

With the moves that the Sox have made already (~$135M committed payroll), and the pending arb deals to Ortiz, Ellsbury, Bailey, Aceves, Bard et al, it seems that they are already up against the CBT line. So either someone (Youkilis,Scutaro?) gets traded for a RH bat or a SP, or we are looking at rehabbing or high risk SP's on ml deals (Harden,Webb) and replacement level RHH rf's. Maybe the Sox wait for Kalish by letting Lin, Linares, and McDonald, along with some ml spring invitee fight it out in ST.

Edited by plucy, 28 December 2011 - 06:28 PM.


#9 keyalyn

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Posted 28 December 2011 - 09:45 PM

Considering Oakland was concerned about Bailey's elbow and accepted a relatively small package for him, and the fact he hasn't thrown 50IP in a season since 2009, I am still a bit cautious about being excited about this trade. He is obviously a very talented pitcher, but there is a high risk for injury here. He is under team control for a few more years, but he is entering arbitration and wont be cheap for long.

#10 jackno

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Posted 28 December 2011 - 11:08 PM

I think it is clear that the front office has a different view of handling prospects than Theo did. I like the moves made so far this off season. I also like the way the bullpen is being built. 1 SP away from a team to fear.

#11 Towney007

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Posted 28 December 2011 - 11:25 PM

I like the deal. I think it's pretty fair.

Essentially, I see this as two deals within one: Sweeney for Reddick and Head and Alcantara for Bailey. Essentially the first is swapping fourth outfielders. Sweeney now is Reddick minus the power, but sees more pitches. He hits to the opposite field a lot which should play well in Fenway to boot. He's a good defensive right fielder. Reddick has upside, but I'm really not convinced he's an everyday player yet. Both have their plusses and minuses, but I think it's a trade of needs.

Bailey for Alcantara and Head is very fair. I think Head will turn into a good major league first baseman. Alcantara is your proverbial scratch ticket. Depending on who you talk to they say he'll be a #2/#3 someday while others question whether he'll ever see the majors. Overall, a solid deal. Both sides betting on upside.

#12 MikeM

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Posted 29 December 2011 - 01:13 AM

Pleasant surprise coming home and seeing this, as i didn't see much a chance on Bailey without a better prospect then Head going the other way there. Ben just earned some serious bonus points with me for pulling this off with Reddick as the centerpiece too. Combined with that last trade, he's leaving me with the feeling we are now in good, realistically-aggressive-when-need-be hands. It's always more fun to see cost-controlled player trades like this go down then spend 2 years talking about 1000 different possibilities that never happen.

I like Sweeney as a throw-in as well. In fact, on another board i post on somebody just bumped a "i'd rather be out there trading for Ryan Sweeney to platoon with McDonald" quote out in on of my tirades over signing Carl Crawford last winter.Good stuff :)

So we give the Bard the opportunity to make the switch to the rotation this spring, and once that gets scratched/fails, he's understandably moved back into his old roll instead of closer. Still leaves us needing to pull in a starter, but that sounds pretty solid on the bullpen front. If we get something out of Jenks on top of that, Gravy.

#13 Towney007

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Posted 29 December 2011 - 02:16 PM

I'm still bullish on Morales if he can find a little more control. I don't even think he has to be sensational, just enough to get the ball over the plate on a semi-consistent basis and he's got the stuff to be a really good middle reliever.

#14 Eck'sSneakyCheese


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Posted 30 December 2011 - 08:57 AM

This is a great move. Reddick showed flashes last year but he was not an everyday OF'er. By the end of the year ML pitching caught up to or on to him and he was a ghost at the plate. The injury history question about Bailey seems a little humorous to me , I mean which pitcher on this team doesn't have a history of injuries? This absolutely strengthens our pen as it stood a week ago. All in all I'm not big on guys like Atchison, Albers, or Morales, but there are more moves to come. Sweeney is a decent 4th OF'er, and more than likely a stop gap for the rebuilt Kalish. Hopefully they add another RF'er to the mix to compete with McDonald because he wasn't all that great last year and leaves little hope for improvement. Add some starting pitching and a RF'er and I say bring on 2012.

Oh, and FWIW my confidence in Papelbon as a closer had waivered last year and the year before. He will never be as dominant as he WAS here. Mark my words.

#15 Papo The Snow Tiger

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Posted 30 December 2011 - 12:57 PM

This is a great move. Reddick showed flashes last year but he was not an everyday OF'er. By the end of the year ML pitching caught up to or on to him and he was a ghost at the plate. The injury history question about Bailey seems a little humorous to me , I mean which pitcher on this team doesn't have a history of injuries? This absolutely strengthens our pen as it stood a week ago. All in all I'm not big on guys like Atchison, Albers, or Morales, but there are more moves to come. Sweeney is a decent 4th OF'er, and more than likely a stop gap for the rebuilt Kalish. Hopefully they add another RF'er to the mix to compete with McDonald because he wasn't all that great last year and leaves little hope for improvement. Add some starting pitching and a RF'er and I say bring on 2012.

Oh, and FWIW my confidence in Papelbon as a closer had waivered last year and the year before. He will never be as dominant as he WAS here. Mark my words.




I agree about Papelbon. I absolutely love the guy, but I think his best days are behind him. Sure, he got a lot of saves last year, but I don't remember too many 1-2-3 innings.

#16 untilthebombs

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Posted 31 December 2011 - 03:17 AM

2011 was possibly Papelbon's best season. Look at the K/BB, WHIP, home runs.

#17 keyalyn

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Posted 31 December 2011 - 03:34 AM

2011 was possibly Papelbon's best season. Look at the K/BB, WHIP, home runs.

Yet there was a fairly clear decline in those numbers in the three previous seasons. His K/BB, WHIP, HR%, and a few others got worse every year from 2008 to 2010. Not unlikely to think that he put more effort into his 2011 season knowing it was his first chance to get the big payday he has been talking about and waiting his entire career for.

He will still be an excellent closer, but he will probably be more like the 2009-2010 Papelbon than the 2011 Papelbon.

#18 untilthebombs

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Posted 31 December 2011 - 06:35 PM

Yet there was a fairly clear decline in those numbers in the three previous seasons. His K/BB, WHIP, HR%, and a few others got worse every year from 2008 to 2010. Not unlikely to think that he put more effort into his 2011 season knowing it was his first chance to get the big payday he has been talking about and waiting his entire career for.

He will still be an excellent closer, but he will probably be more like the 2009-2010 Papelbon than the 2011 Papelbon.


Narrative says effort, pitch f/x says approach:

2010:


Posted Image


2011:

Posted Image


Notice the significant increase in two-seam fastballs (FT). He threw it 10.5% of the time compared to less than 1% in 2010, and 4% in 2009. As he's moved away from a straight fastball approach (84% in 2009, 65% in 2011), swinging strikes have increased. First from 11% to 13% in 2010 as he introduced a split finger fastball, and upped usage of his slider, before the two-seam fastball took him to 17% in 2011. This approach lead not just to more strikeouts, but less walks.

Saying that he won't be as good going forward is an easy bet, both because he's a year older and how stinkin' good he was in 2011. But this:

Oh, and FWIW my confidence in Papelbon as a closer had waivered last year and the year before. He will never be as dominant as he WAS here. Mark my words.


And this:

I agree about Papelbon. I absolutely love the guy, but I think his best days are behind him. Sure, he got a lot of saves last year, but I don't remember too many 1-2-3 innings.


Is just wrong.

#19 Eck'sSneakyCheese


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Posted 31 December 2011 - 08:21 PM

Why is it wrong? Because the numbers said so? I WATCHED the games. He was awful in the beginning of the year. He was not consistent and he hasn't been consistent for a couple years. If he blows away the bottom of the O's order in that last game the end of our season would've been a lot different.

#20 untilthebombs

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Posted 01 January 2012 - 04:05 PM

Why is it wrong? Because the numbers said so? I WATCHED the games. He was awful in the beginning of the year. He was not consistent and he hasn't been consistent for a couple years. If he blows away the bottom of the O's order in that last game the end of our season would've been a lot different.


Umm....Yeah.

#21 mBiferi

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Posted 02 January 2012 - 12:16 AM

Why is it wrong? Because the numbers said so? I WATCHED the games. He was awful in the beginning of the year. He was not consistent and he hasn't been consistent for a couple years. If he blows away the bottom of the O's order in that last game the end of our season would've been a lot different.


Please stop. Yes, the numbers say you are wrong. He was NOT awful in the beginning of the year. He was actually pretty damn good:

March / April

ERA 1.93
WHIP 0.96
K/9 11.6
K/BB 6.00

With 5 saves

May

ERA 3.38
WHIP 1.12
K/9 12.8
K/BB 19

With 5 saves

So, no. He didn't start awful. He was one of the few bright spots in that shitty beggining and in the end, he had one heck of a season.
He wasn't inconsistent, he only had one bad month (June) and it was actually one bad week (from june 1st to june 7th)

#22 Eck'sSneakyCheese


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Posted 02 January 2012 - 08:56 AM

So, no. He didn't start awful. He was one of the few bright spots in that shitty beggining and in the end, he had one heck of a season.
He wasn't inconsistent, he only had one bad month (June) and it was actually one bad week (from june 1st to june 7th)



I'm sorry but watching the games this year, if Pap's was coming in with anything less than a 3 run lead I was absolutely not confident that the game was over. You can spit numbers at me all you want it doesn't change what I saw on the field and how I felt for the 2010 and 2011 seasons. There wasn't that GAME OVER sense like the pre '09 Papelbon. It may be just my opinion, but I sense I can't be the only one. By all accounts he was absolutely filthy in August. In the last 3 games he pitched in against Baltimore,the worst team in the AL, he was awful and as far as the '11 season goes that's when it mattered most. If that's not inconsistent then I must not understand the definition of that word.

#23 Cellar-Door


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Posted 02 January 2012 - 12:32 PM

I'm sorry but watching the games this year, if Pap's was coming in with anything less than a 3 run lead I was absolutely not confident that the game was over. You can spit numbers at me all you want it doesn't change what I saw on the field and how I felt for the 2010 and 2011 seasons. There wasn't that GAME OVER sense like the pre '09 Papelbon. It may be just my opinion, but I sense I can't be the only one. By all accounts he was absolutely filthy in August. In the last 3 games he pitched in against Baltimore,the worst team in the AL, he was awful and as far as the '11 season goes that's when it mattered most. If that's not inconsistent then I must not understand the definition of that word.


Adjective:

Not staying the same throughout; having self-contradictory elements.
Acting at variance with one's own principles or former conduct

#24 keyalyn

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Posted 02 January 2012 - 12:44 PM

I'm sorry but watching the games this year, if Pap's was coming in with anything less than a 3 run lead I was absolutely not confident that the game was over. You can spit numbers at me all you want it doesn't change what I saw on the field and how I felt for the 2010 and 2011 seasons. There wasn't that GAME OVER sense like the pre '09 Papelbon. It may be just my opinion, but I sense I can't be the only one. By all accounts he was absolutely filthy in August. In the last 3 games he pitched in against Baltimore,the worst team in the AL, he was awful and as far as the '11 season goes that's when it mattered most. If that's not inconsistent then I must not understand the definition of that word.

Hopefully those others can explain their lack of confidence in Papelbon last season with reasons other than how they felt and what they sensed. Those aren't really convincing reasons as to why Papelbon wasn't a dominant closer last season.

#25 Eck'sSneakyCheese


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Posted 02 January 2012 - 01:11 PM

Hopefully those others can explain their lack of confidence in Papelbon last season with reasons other than how they felt and what they sensed. Those aren't really convincing reasons as to why Papelbon wasn't a dominant closer last season.



He had 7 losses and 8 blown saves in 2010. Then in his first appearance in 2011 he throws 27 pitches in one innning giving up a run, walking 1, but striking out the side. So, yeah I wasn't feeling all gung-ho about Papelbon right from the get go. From July 6th to Sep 16th he put up GREAT numbers. That is not a full consistent season. Better?

#26 untilthebombs

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Posted 02 January 2012 - 01:31 PM

I'm sorry but watching the games this year, if Pap's was coming in with anything less than a 3 run lead I was absolutely not confident that the game was over. You can spit numbers at me all you want it doesn't change what I saw on the field and how I felt for the 2010 and 2011 seasons. There wasn't that GAME OVER sense like the pre '09 Papelbon. It may be just my opinion, but I sense I can't be the only one. By all accounts he was absolutely filthy in August. In the last 3 games he pitched in against Baltimore,the worst team in the AL, he was awful and as far as the '11 season goes that's when it mattered most. If that's not inconsistent then I must not understand the definition of that word.


This is definition of small sample size. You can find a bad stretch for any player. It doesn't mean they're inconsistent. You simply cannot evaluate a player over only a few games time.

#27 Towney007

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Posted 02 January 2012 - 01:31 PM

*facepalm*

What PAP~! needed more than anything was some more RBI's~! To show me his MANLINESS~!

Edited by Towney007, 02 January 2012 - 01:32 PM.


#28 untilthebombs

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Posted 02 January 2012 - 01:40 PM

He had 7 losses and 8 blown saves in 2010. Then in his first appearance in 2011 he throws 27 pitches in one innning giving up a run, walking 1, but striking out the side. So, yeah I wasn't feeling all gung-ho about Papelbon right from the get go. From July 6th to Sep 16th he put up GREAT numbers. That is not a full consistent season. Better?


Plain and simple, if you're using losses and saves to evaluate a closer, you're doing yourself a disservice. It's antiquated.

#29 keyalyn

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Posted 02 January 2012 - 01:59 PM

He had 7 losses and 8 blown saves in 2010. Then in his first appearance in 2011 he throws 27 pitches in one innning giving up a run, walking 1, but striking out the side. So, yeah I wasn't feeling all gung-ho about Papelbon right from the get go. From July 6th to Sep 16th he put up GREAT numbers. That is not a full consistent season. Better?

Not at all.

So a shaky outing to start the season and you're automatically down on him? So I guess you were too dejected to notice his 2.49ERA, 0.970WHIP and 14K/BB the rest of April and May (21 games)? Or the 1.88ERA, 0.730WHIP and 10.2K/BB from June 10th until the end of the season (37 games)?

#30 Eck'sSneakyCheese


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Posted 02 January 2012 - 02:05 PM

Plain and simple, if you're using losses and saves to evaluate a closer, you're doing yourself a disservice. It's antiquated.



Alright then in 2010 his ERA was 3.90, he gave up 57 h in 67 IP, and had 2.7K/BB and a WHIP of 1.27. Not exactly dominating numbers. So, again I state going into the '11 season I was not confident in Papelbon, and if your comparing his '10 and '11 seasons as a whole then there's your large sample size inconsistency.

Edited by Eck'sSneakyCheese, 02 January 2012 - 02:07 PM.


#31 Eck'sSneakyCheese


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Posted 02 January 2012 - 02:23 PM

Not at all.

So a shaky outing to start the season and you're automatically down on him? So I guess you were too dejected to notice his 2.49ERA, 0.970WHIP and 14K/BB the rest of April and May (21 games)? Or the 1.88ERA, 0.730WHIP and 10.2K/BB from June 10th until the end of the season (37 games)?



He had a 3.43 ERA in May and 1.13 WHIP... Good in April, Not so in May. You are arguing the fact that I'm saying he wasn't dominant. That's not the case and I never said that. He was inconsistent and I lacked confidence in him because of the prior season. Am I happy he's gone? No. I'm not retarded. He IS a great closer who's best years are behind him and may have some quality years left in him but will never be what he was.

Edited by Eck'sSneakyCheese, 02 January 2012 - 02:26 PM.


#32 keyalyn

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Posted 02 January 2012 - 02:37 PM

He had a 3.43 ERA in May and 1.13 WHIP... Good in April, Not so in May. You are arguing the fact that I'm saying he wasn't dominant. That's not the case and I never said that. He was inconsistent and I lacked confidence in him because of the prior season. Am I happy he's gone? No. I'm not retarded. He IS a great closer who's best years are behind him and may have some quality years left in him but will never be what he was.

He had a 1.93ERA, and 0.964WHIP in April. That is merely "good"? He was fantastic in April. Regardless, you said he was awful in the beginning of the year, and his performance in April and May were far from awful. Unless you expect the closer to never have a bad stretch of games, Papelbon was consistent last year. Miserable 4 games in early June, dominant the rest of the year.

Edited by keyalyn, 02 January 2012 - 02:39 PM.


#33 Eck'sSneakyCheese


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Posted 02 January 2012 - 02:42 PM

He had a 1.93ERA, and 0.964WHIP in April. That is merely "good"? He was fantastic in April. Regardless, you said he was awful in the beginning of the year, and his performance in April and May were far from awful. Unless you expect the closer to never have a bad stretch of games, Papelbon was consistent last year. Miserable 4 games in early June, dominant the rest of the year.



Those were his numbers at the beginning of May. Not the end.

#34 keyalyn

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Posted 02 January 2012 - 02:47 PM

Those were his numbers at the beginning of May. Not the end.

No kidding. I was referencing what he did in April, not May.

You said he was "good" in April, and a 1.93ERA, and 0.964WHIP is a whole lot better than "good".

#35 Papo The Snow Tiger

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Posted 02 January 2012 - 03:06 PM

He had a 3.43 ERA in May and 1.13 WHIP... Good in April, Not so in May. You are arguing the fact that I'm saying he wasn't dominant. That's not the case and I never said that. He was inconsistent and I lacked confidence in him because of the prior season. Am I happy he's gone? No. I'm not retarded. He IS a great closer who's best years are behind him and may have some quality years left in him but will never be what he was.




I have to agree with Eck and say that while Papelbon is still a great closer, his best days may be behind him and that he may not still be one over the length of his Phillies contract. Operating in a vacuum I wish he were still a Red Sox, but I don't think he's worth what the Philies are going pay him for five years. Yes, he put up some great numbers last year, but he was also part of some ridiculous failures the past couple of years. There were times he was dominant and the opposition did nothing and he gave up no runs, but when he was off he gave up hits in bunches and they scored. I know this is the case with any reliever not named Mariano, but the last couple of years I also never felt confident if Paps came in with only a one run lead. I don't know if the data is available, but I'd like to compare how many pitches per batter he was averaging the last couple of seasons against 2007 and 2008. I'm only relying on my memory, but it seemed to me that he had to work a lot harder recently. Considering the concerns about his shoulder, I have to think that is going to continue.

#36 Eck'sSneakyCheese


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Posted 02 January 2012 - 05:09 PM

No kidding. I was referencing what he did in April, not May.

You said he was "good" in April, and a 1.93ERA, and 0.964WHIP is a whole lot better than "good".



No, not really. That's "good" for a closer. That would be fantastic for a starting pitcher. From May 1st to Jul 16th he was sub par at best. In August he was lights out fantastic 0.00 ERA, 0.18 WHIP, and by the end of September he blew up. You stated that his April AND May were far from from awful and then posted numbers for April only. May was not good. Neither was the beginning of June. Or the first week of July. Or the last week of September when we were fighting for a playoff spot.

Edited by Eck'sSneakyCheese, 02 January 2012 - 06:05 PM.


#37 untilthebombs

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Posted 02 January 2012 - 06:50 PM

Alright then in 2010 his ERA was 3.90, he gave up 57 h in 67 IP, and had 2.7K/BB and a WHIP of 1.27. Not exactly dominating numbers. So, again I state going into the '11 season I was not confident in Papelbon, and if your comparing his '10 and '11 seasons as a whole then there's your large sample size inconsistency.


=/=

This is a great move. Reddick showed flashes last year but he was not an everyday OF'er. By the end of the year ML pitching caught up to or on to him and he was a ghost at the plate. The injury history question about Bailey seems a little humorous to me , I mean which pitcher on this team doesn't have a history of injuries? This absolutely strengthens our pen as it stood a week ago. All in all I'm not big on guys like Atchison, Albers, or Morales, but there are more moves to come. Sweeney is a decent 4th OF'er, and more than likely a stop gap for the rebuilt Kalish. Hopefully they add another RF'er to the mix to compete with McDonald because he wasn't all that great last year and leaves little hope for improvement. Add some starting pitching and a RF'er and I say bring on 2012.

Oh, and FWIW my confidence in Papelbon as a closer had waivered last year and the year before. He will never be as dominant as he WAS here. Mark my words.




#38 Eck'sSneakyCheese


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Posted 02 January 2012 - 07:08 PM

You highlited me saying the same thing twice... what's your point?

#39 untilthebombs

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Posted 02 January 2012 - 07:25 PM

No, not really. That's "good" for a closer. That would be fantastic for a starting pitcher. From May 1st to Jul 16th he was sub par at best. In August he was lights out fantastic 0.00 ERA, 0.18 WHIP, and by the end of September he blew up. You stated that his April AND May were far from from awful and then posted numbers for April only. May was not good. Neither was the beginning of June. Or the first week of July. Or the last week of September when we were fighting for a playoff spot.


You're picking your spots again.

An ERA below 2.00 is better than good for any pitcher.

May 1st to Jul 16th over 28.1 innings, he stuck out 40, walked just 6 and allowed 3 home runs.

That's a K/BB of 6.67, something only three AL relief pitchers (Uehara, Rivera, and Papelbon himself), including just one other closer (Rivera) bested over the season.

His home runs/ nine were admittedly slightly worse than the average relief pitcher over this period at .95 (.92 league average).

Add it up and we've got a FIP of 2.39, something that just four AL relief pitchers beat for the season. Rivera and Papelbon, the closers, along with Robertson and Holland. Even a home run rate above average still comfortably places Papelbon with the top relief pitchers of 2011.

What spiked his ERA? A batting average on balls in play of .384. Given his career average BABIP of .278, and 2011 BABIP of .309, AND all of the aforementioned info, it's likely that he suffered a bought of bad luck during this time, as opposed to something within his control.

#40 Cellar-Door


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Posted 02 January 2012 - 07:45 PM

You highlited me saying the same thing twice... what's your point?

Probably that your only real response to quantitative evidence is how you feel. It is like thinking the earth is the center of the universe because it feels that way to you. Feeling something is true doesn't make it so. There is no evidence to show that Papelbon's performance last year was anything other than very good.

#41 Eck'sSneakyCheese


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Posted 02 January 2012 - 08:00 PM

You're picking your spots again.

An ERA below 2.00 is better than good for any pitcher.

May 1st to Jul 16th over 28.1 innings, he stuck out 40, walked just 6 and allowed 3 home runs.

That's a K/BB of 6.67, something only three AL relief pitchers (Uehara, Rivera, and Papelbon himself), including just one other closer (Rivera) bested over the season.

His home runs/ nine were admittedly slightly worse than the average relief pitcher over this period at .95 (.92 league average).

Add it up and we've got a FIP of 2.39, something that just four AL relief pitchers beat for the season. Rivera and Papelbon, the closers, along with Robertson and Holland. Even a home run rate above average still comfortably places Papelbon with the top relief pitchers of 2011.

What spiked his ERA? A batting average on balls in play of .384. Given his career average BABIP of .278, and 2011 BABIP of .309, AND all of the aforementioned info, it's likely that he suffered a bought of bad luck during this time, as opposed to something within his control.


Considering he had ERA's below 2.00 for entire season's previous I don't think holding onto it for a month is anything spectacular. Sorry. On May 1st his ERA was 1.74 by Jul 16th it was 4.06. In those 28.1 innings pitched he gave up 15 earned runs. That's an ERA of 4.84 over that span while surrendering 30 hits. Add that to his 6BB's and he was letting someone reach base about as much as he was striking them out. You're just picking the numbers to try to prove your point which is fine, I'm obviously doing the same, but you're grasping at straws... And really? Bad luck? C'mon man. You give me a bunch of numbers and then say that anything contrary to your point was obviously caused by bad luck and not his fault. Seriously?

#42 Eck'sSneakyCheese


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Posted 02 January 2012 - 08:07 PM

Probably that your only real response to quantitative evidence is how you feel. It is like thinking the earth is the center of the universe because it feels that way to you. Feeling something is true doesn't make it so. There is no evidence to show that Papelbon's performance last year was anything other than very good.



I never said it wasn't good. I merely stated that he was inconsistent and I lacked confidence in him. The overall season was pretty decent. But not the whole thing. I've been blasting numbers on why I lacked confidence in him going into the season and have shown how and when he was inconsistent this year. It started with how I FELT and then I regurgitated numbers to prove it .

#43 Cellar-Door


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Posted 02 January 2012 - 08:27 PM

I never said it wasn't good. I merely stated that he was inconsistent and I lacked confidence in him. The overall season was pretty decent. But not the whole thing. I've been blasting numbers on why I lacked confidence in him going into the season and have shown how and when he was inconsistent this year. It started with how I FELT and then I regurgitated numbers to prove it .

He made 63 appearances he gave up more than 1 run 5 times, 2 of those were in a 3 game stretch in early June which accounted for 5 of the 6 ER he gave up for the month.
Here is his game log http://www.baseball-...ljo01&t=p&year=
if that is inconsistent to you then every baseball player is inconsistent. He had a few bad games sprinkled throughout the season, but there are no real stretches of bad games (unless you count 3 poor performances out of four in the first week of June) Occasionally giving up runs isn't inconsistency it is being human.

#44 Eck'sSneakyCheese


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Posted 02 January 2012 - 08:48 PM

He made 63 appearances he gave up more than 1 run 5 times, 2 of those were in a 3 game stretch in early June which accounted for 5 of the 6 ER he gave up for the month.
Here is his game log http://www.baseball-...ljo01&t=p&year=
if that is inconsistent to you then every baseball player is inconsistent. He had a few bad games sprinkled throughout the season, but there are no real stretches of bad games (unless you count 3 poor performances out of four in the first week of June) Occasionally giving up runs isn't inconsistency it is being human.



That's kind of my point. Prior to the 2010 season he wasn't human. He was an absolute machine. After 2010 that's no longer the case.

#45 untilthebombs

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Posted 02 January 2012 - 09:04 PM

Considering he had ERA's below 2.00 for entire season's previous I don't think holding onto it for a month is anything spectacular. Sorry. On May 1st his ERA was 1.74 by Jul 16th it was 4.06. In those 28.1 innings pitched he gave up 15 earned runs. That's an ERA of 4.84 over that span while surrendering 30 hits. Add that to his 6BB's and he was letting someone reach base about as much as he was striking them out. You're just picking the numbers to try to prove your point which is fine, I'm obviously doing the same, but you're grasping at straws... And really? Bad luck? C'mon man. You give me a bunch of numbers and then say that anything contrary to your point was obviously caused by bad luck and not his fault. Seriously?


I just walked you step by step through how Papelbon was pitching at a level reserved for the game's best during a time you stated him to be "sub par at best." I explained exactly how it was likely bad luck that struck him based on peripherals and his historical average BABIP. And you throw ERA and hits, a function of his BABIP, back at me?


Yet, I'm the one who's grasping at straws...

#46 Eck'sSneakyCheese


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Posted 02 January 2012 - 11:47 PM

I just walked you step by step through how Papelbon was pitching at a level reserved for the game's best during a time you stated him to be "sub par at best." I explained exactly how it was likely bad luck that struck him based on peripherals and his historical average BABIP. And you throw ERA and hits, a function of his BABIP, back at me?


Yet, I'm the one who's grasping at straws...



Based on his K's ber BB ratio and HR per 9? That's all that matters? And you explained EXACTLY how it was LIKELY bad luck that made him INCONSISTENT. My whole point to begin with. You take August away from last year and it was mediocre. He had a decent April. A lackluster May. A horrific first week in June then came around. An average July. An AMAZING August. And he completely shit the bed the last week of September. What part of that is consistent? That's the only point I'm trying to get across here.

#47 Cellar-Door


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Posted 03 January 2012 - 12:27 AM

Based on his K's ber BB ratio and HR per 9? That's all that matters? And you explained EXACTLY how it was LIKELY bad luck that made him INCONSISTENT. My whole point to begin with. You take August away from last year and it was mediocre. He had a decent April. A lackluster May. A horrific first week in June then came around. An average July. An AMAZING August. And he completely shit the bed the last week of September. What part of that is consistent? That's the only point I'm trying to get across here.

HE WASN'T INCONSISTENT there is no basis to say that, as I pointed out with the game logs. Inconsistent would imply stretches of poor pitching interspersed with stretches of excellent pitching which just wasn't the case, he had bad games sprinkled in here or there.

Edited by Cellar-Door, 03 January 2012 - 12:36 AM.


#48 Eck'sSneakyCheese


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Posted 03 January 2012 - 07:32 AM

HE WASN'T INCONSISTENT there is no basis to say that, as I pointed out with the game logs. Inconsistent would imply stretches of poor pitching interspersed with stretches of excellent pitching which just wasn't the case, he had bad games sprinkled in here or there.



May 1st to July 16th 28.1 IP 31 H 15 ER. July 17th to Sep 16th 22 IP 5 H 0 ER. Is that not as whole inconsistent?

edited for clarity... Better?

Edited by Eck'sSneakyCheese, 03 January 2012 - 05:33 PM.


#49 Towney007

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Posted 03 January 2012 - 02:34 PM

Prior to 2010 his ERA was never over 2.50 and woud fluctuate throughout the season less than 1 point (leaving out April because those numbers can be drastic in the beginning). CONSISTENT. 2010 and '11 his ERA hit over 4.50 and fluctuated through the season more than 2 points... Why does his inconsistency have to be poor/excellent? Why not average/excellent? May 1st to July 16th 28.1 IP 31 H 15 ER. July 17th to Sep 16th 22 IP 5 H 0 ER. Is that not as whole inconsistent?



Um, what?

#50 Eck'sSneakyCheese


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Posted 03 January 2012 - 05:24 PM

Um, what?


Edited by Eck'sSneakyCheese, 03 January 2012 - 05:34 PM.