205 replies to this topic

[teddywingman]

Bailey has amazing stuff, but this deal may not look so good when his ulner blows out for real.

[AlNipper49]

Why is this so awesome? Bailey hasnt thrown more than 50 innings since he was used as a relief ace in 09'.

What did we lack in September? Innings from pitchers.

Using that theory a team should never trade for relief help if there is need in the starting rotation?

What I'm saying is that I doubt Reddick would have been a cornerstone of a package which landed us an impact pitcher (relative to their slotting in the rotation of course)

[BCsMightyJoeYoung]

It puts a hell of a lot of emphasis on Kalish, Sweeney, and McDonald and if, for whatever reason, Crawford doesn't rebound substantially, we're going to have a significantly underperforming outfield even if Ellsbury does maintain MVP caliber.

So what does this make the bullpen?

Bailey, Melancon, Atchison, Doubront, Morales, Albers.

That assumes both Bard and Aceves become starters - which I think is unlikely. One would think the main attraction with Bailey was he's very cheap. So they can now afford to sign a SP now. Kuroda or Oswald one assumes. Pretty good trade all and all. Although Head was looking rather intriguing. But he was completely blocked.

[Seabass177]

It puts a hell of a lot of emphasis on Kalish, Sweeney, and McDonald and if, for whatever reason, Crawford doesn't rebound substantially, we're going to have a significantly underperforming outfield even if Ellsbury does maintain MVP caliber.

So what does this make the bullpen?

Bailey, Melancon, Atchison, Doubront, Morales, Albers.

From a pure talent perspective, I think this is an easy deal for the Sox to make. RF obviously needs to be addressed, and seeing as how it's not yet 2012, I'm sure it will be.

[mt8thsw9th]

What did we lack in September? Innings from pitchers.

Yeah, and I'm sure the closer is going to pick up the slack when the two best pitchers on a team are bad and can't go innings. The difference between a "50 inning pitcher" and what the Red Sox' closer provided in September is a grand total of 1 2/3 innings. I know you're just into shitting all over all of the moves this offseason (when you loved the "name" signings of the past two offseasons), but you're pretty much grasping at straws at this point.

[czar]

Why is this so awesome? Bailey hasnt thrown more than 50 innings since he was used as a relief ace in 09'.

What did we lack in September? Innings from pitchers.

Andrew Bailey missed zero months in 2009, one month in 2010 (August), and two months (April, May) in 2011.

Even if you want to consider him an injury risk, next to impossible to find RP with Bailey's rates (and under team control for 3 more years) where you give up a 4th OF and a couple minor leaguers.

[trekfan55]

And as an aside, what can Ryan Madson expect now? There is absolutely no market for him as closer right now.

[mr_smith02]

From a pure talent perspective, I think this is an easy deal for the Sox to make. RF obviously needs to be addressed, and seeing as how it's not yet 2012, I'm sure it will be.

What's the take of the folks here at SoSH as to which RF the Sox should and could realistically bring in for next year?

[curly2]

So sign a SP like Oswalt/Kuroda and Bard is your 5th starter and the pen lines up Bailey/Melancon/Jenks/Aceves/Albers/Morales.

I'd be on board with that. Aceves would be great as a 6th starter/long man. Plus, to keep Bard from making too big on an innings jump, they may want to skip him occasionally, so Aceves (or Doubront, who will probably be in the pen because he is out of options) could step in and start.

[Foulkey Reese]

From Joe Sheehan:

Josh Reddick is a 25-year-old OF with a .293 OBP above Double-A.

[teddywingman]

Andrew Bailey missed zero months in 2009, one month in 2010 (August), and two months (April, May) in 2011.

Even if you want to consider him an injury risk, next to impossible to find RP with Bailey's rates (and under team control for 3 more years) where you give up a 4th OF and a couple minor leaguers.

Why wouldn't you?

[rembrat]

Yeah, and I'm sure the closer is going to pick up the slack when the two best pitchers on a team are bad and can't go innings. The difference between a "50 inning pitcher" and what the Red Sox' closer provided in September is a grand total of 1 2/3 innings. I know you're just into shitting all over all of the moves this offseason (when you loved the "name" signings of the past two offseasons), but you're pretty much grasping at straws at this point.

It works both ways. If your closer goes down it forces one of your setup men into the role and your middle relief is shot because you have to depend on AAA crap to get those important outs in the 6-7-8 innings.

I can see why people love it. Bailey's stuff is sick but his health concerns are very real. I'm not making this shit up. And the fact that no one is mentioning his history of injuries is a huge WTF.

[Rasputin]

What's the take of the folks here at SoSH as to which RF the Sox should and could realistically bring in for next year?

I think at the moment we're looking at Sweeney and McDonald platooning until Kalish is ready. That could easily be by opening day so anyone who comes in damn well better be cheap.

[BCsMightyJoeYoung]

What's the take of the folks here at SoSH as to which RF the Sox should and could realistically bring in for next year?

No one as a starter.

Kalish is the starting RF

[The Gray Eagle]

Sox give Head and Red dick to A's in order to get Bailey.

We sure are going to have a full bullpen if either Aceves or Bard doesn't work out as a starter. But what could possibly go wrong with either of them as starters? But since Bailey's likely to pitch about 45 innings, there should be plenty of bullpen innings to go around.

Sweeney is utterly useless here, so he must be a "good clubhouse guy" who "cares." Does he slide into first base all the time too like Punto?

Our game plan seems to be to collect closers and gritty guys with no power.

On the other hand, Bailey's a good pitcher, when he's healthy enough to pitch. Though his walks and homeruns allowed really go up when he's not pitching in Oakland.

Fun fact: 5 of the 11 HRs he's allowed in the major leaguess have come in Fenway, Yankee Stadium and Tampa, including 3 in 8 IP in Yankee Stadium. Let's all close our eyes and chant "small sample size" over and over...

[Jed Zeppelin]

Love the deal for the Sox. Reddick is replaceable and the prospects are decent but not great by any means.

[Sprowl]

Ton of raw talent, but at 19, he's years away.

Great, great trade for the Sox if it's Bailey/Sweeney for Reddick/Head/Alcantara.

Prospect volume for current value looks like a sound use of resources for the Red Sox. Reddick's ceiling depends on his showing that he can sustain good strike zone judgment over a full season, and the odds are still against it.

Bailey has quality stuff and misses bats (high K rate, 10+% swinging strikes). He's deadly against RHB, but like Melancon, he has a platoon weakness, only more extreme. He's a flyball pitcher, which could be problematic in the AL East parks. The team will need some quality platoon appearances from Franklin Morales.

[gammoseditor]

I think at the moment we're looking at Sweeney and McDonald platooning until Kalish is ready. That could easily be by opening day so anyone who comes in damn well better be cheap.

I think this trade is a pretty clear signal the Sox think Ryan Kalish is their 2012 RF.

[erfus]

Andrew Bailey has had TJ surgery before, back in 2004 when he was in college. Here's an article on his March 2011 visit to Dr. Andrews when he was concerned about his elbow once again:

http://articles.sfga...-relief-efforts

Bailey said that Andrews, who also did his elbow ligament transplant six years ago, told him the ligament is sound. "Dr. Andrews is very optimistic about me this year, and my future," Bailey said.

So, he had "cleanup surgery" in fall, 2010, missed time after a forearm strain as noted above in ST, and then missed some time in September after getting a ball to the noggin during BP. As long as nothing's changed since his visit to Andrews about a year ago, it seems like a good deal for the Sox to me. I'm not a fan of Reddick's approach and don't think it'll fly as a long-term MLB starter.

I remember Sweeney being a fairly well regarded prospect through 2007 but he hasn't put it together. Seems like a worthwhile flyer to take on a Jeremy Hermida-type of guy coming into his age 27 year. Maybe they'll get lucky and as pointed out, they could use the OF depth.

[czar]

Why wouldn't you?

Well, you can make an argument he's only missed 3 months in 3 years. I will cop to being concerned about the elbow (as I'm sure most people are) but it's not like we just dropped 5/$15 on Erik Bedard.

This is still a fan-dan-tastic deal for the Sox. Best case, Bailey is a top-5 AL closer, absolute worst case (he blows out his elbow, misses 2 of years and Melancon/Bard close) and the Sox are out-- uh-- Josh Reddick. Big upside, little downside.

Edited by czar, 28 December 2011 - 05:24 PM.

[SoxScout]

While Kalish is the future of RF, maybe in April if he is 100% in March, I see Kosuke Fukudome as a buy-low candidate over the next month on a 1 year deal.

Maybe not with Sweeney, but who knows.

Edited by SoxScout, 28 December 2011 - 05:26 PM.

[Dogman2]

Love the deal for the Sox. Reddick is replaceable and the prospects are decent but not great by any means.

This is why I like this deal. Reddick is very replaceable with someone the team already has in their system. As long as RF is league average defensively, that offensive spot isn't all that worrisome.

[Yaz4Ever]

I like this move a lot. I know it's been asked already, but I didn't see a response. How is Sweeney's defense - range and arm - and how will that play in Fenway?

I'd like to go on record as saying I think we'll be happy with Kalish in RF. Obviously, I'd like to see us get the kid from Cuba, but if the Yankees really are going all-in, I doubt we can afford him so getting Kuroda and hoping for the best from Kalish, DMac, and Sweeney wouldn't disappoint me too much to round things out.

[Rasputin]

Somehow I am now terrified of trading for Matt Garza.

[SoxScout]

Somehow I am now terrified of trading for Matt Garza.

He said all along he will wait people out this offseason, and I'll be damned if he's not. I don't see him jumping in a massive bidding war anytime soon.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Sweeney is utterly useless here, so he must be a "good clubhouse guy" who "cares." Does he slide into first base all the time too like Punto?

Defensively, he's a tremendous right fielder. Let's stop acting like we need a .800+ OPS at every position. The line-up is more than fine.

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 28 December 2011 - 05:35 PM.

[mt8thsw9th]

I can see why people love it. Bailey's stuff is sick but his health concerns are very real. I'm not making this shit up. And the fact that no one is mentioning his history of injuries is a huge WTF.

I think the caveat emptor with most of these pitchers is the injury risk, and Bailey has been shelved his share of time, but I'm sure most are willing to take the risk with Bailey. I didn't say you're making it up, but I'd imagine some have a higher risk appetite than you may have. The reward is big with Bailey, and I'm sure the Red Sox can keep him healt...oh, right.

Still, all things considered, while I didn't dislike Reddick, he occasionally reeked of a lefty Francoeur (and Sweeney seems like a wash at the plate and in the field, if FG's UZR/150 numbers are to be believed). So essentially it comes down to Bailey for the minor leaguers, who are A ball lottery tickets that didn't even crack the system's top 10. Personally, I think Bailey has a better chance of being effective with the Red Sox than the prospects in the deal have a shot of being productive major leaguers (or better trade chips than they currently are) in the future. So in conclusion, Libya is a land of contrast, and I don't see a major problem with this deal.

[mfried]

Andrew Bailey has had TJ surgery before, back in 2004 when he was in college. Here's an article on his March 2011 visit to Dr. Andrews when he was concerned about his elbow once again:

http://articles.sfga...-relief-efforts



So, he had "cleanup surgery" in fall, 2010, missed time after a forearm strain as noted above in ST, and then missed some time in September after getting a ball to the noggin during BP. As long as nothing's changed since his visit to Andrews about a year ago, it seems like a good deal for the Sox to me. I'm not a fan of Reddick's approach and don't think it'll fly as a long-term MLB starter.

I remember Sweeney being a fairly well regarded prospect through 2007 but he hasn't put it together. Seems like a worthwhile flyer to take on a Jeremy Hermida-type of guy coming into his age 27 year. Maybe they'll get lucky and as pointed out, they could use the OF depth.

Sweeney looks to be a good defensive RFer (more reliable than Reddick) with a decent OBP vs. right-handed pitchers (he's useless vs. lefties). He's a reasonable insurance policy for Kalish's unreadiness. Two possibilities: 1) the Sox know Kalish won't be ready for the beginning of the season or 2) They plan to trade either Sweeney or Kalish. I don't see his value being SO much less than Reddick's. I hated Josh's casual one-handed catches, which led to some serious miscues.

[Hendu's Gait]

Not liking his SO/BB splits H/A.

OBPa too is much better in Oakland.

But you can never have too many young and inexpensive pitchers, especially ex-Allstars and ROY's.

[Paradigm]

This is a great trade for the Sox, and it seems especially fair given the market for relievers. Since debuting in 2009, Bailey has the 12th highest WAR among relief pitchers (4.4). Other relief pitchers who have been involved in recent transactions:

6th: Sean Marshall (5.4 WAR)
Acquiring: one year of service
Cost: Travis Wood (a young, major league starting pitcher) and two three-star prospects (Ronald Torreyes and Dave Sappelt)

9th: Mike Adams (4.8 WAR)
Acquiring: 1.5 seasons
Cost: two four-star pitching prospects (Joe Wieland and Robbie Erlin)

12th: Andrew Bailey (4.4 WAR)
Acquiring: 3 seasons
Cost: a major league starting outfielder and two 2/3-star prospects (probably)

15th: Ryan Madson (4.3)
Acquiring: length of contract
Cost: possibly a large amount of money

When you evaluate the three trade packages above, there's no question that the Red Sox gave up the smallest package. That's fair, considering that the Sox acquired the "worst" pitcher of the three, but that doesn't consider Bailey's three future seasons of service.

Bailey is under team control for three more seasons, and I think he's known to have an aggressive approach and makeup that should suit Boston. The free agent market for closers has proven to be more expensive than usual this season, and I think most people on SoSH would agree that if you're going to spend free agent money, the bullpen is the least valuable position on which to spend.

The Red Sox will always trade projectable talent for major league players, especially top class players at their position. And to date, most of these trades haven't hurt the Red Sox. Remember when everyone was aghast that we traded Engel Beltre to the Rangers? Five years later, he's just about to hit Triple-A. The Gagne trade flopped, but you'll take major league talent over five years of minor league service time every chance you can.

Edited by Paradigm, 28 December 2011 - 05:36 PM.

[Manramsclan]

I think this trade is a pretty clear signal the Sox think Ryan Kalish is their 2012 RF.

I think this trade is a pretty clear signal the Sox think Ryan Sweeney is their 2012 RF.

He's 26, is a proven commodity, has decent on base skills, has a 24 UZR according to Fangraphs, and can sit against lefties without freaking out about it.

If anything, he's a hedge against whether or not Kalish comes back healthy and is capable of producing at the major league level. If Kalish does, then he's trade bait.

I like this deal. Now the Sox have a major league RF who can produce league average offense with above average defense and can be easily shoved aside if Kalish resumes his mantle as the RFer of the future. In the meantime there is certainty at the position.
Reddick's tools were interesting but his lack of selectivity was an issue. A swap good for both sides.

Bailey has incredible stuff, and now the Sox have two guys capable of closing who are cheap. Bailey has trouble staying on the field but if he doesn't Melancon is capable of closing.

No downside to this move. Even if the other prospects are studs, they are so far from the majors at this point that trading them to help plug holes at the major league level is a wise move.

Edited by Manramsclan, 28 December 2011 - 05:38 PM.

[someoneanywhere]

You guys who are on the trash wagon must just want to
be there. This is a solid deal -- utterly unspectacular to anyone outside Soxdom. Kalish is a better player than Reddick. Trade Reddick. Miles Head has a bat, but also a bad body that confines him to 1B if he plays the field at all. Seems like we have a guy there. Alcantara is 19. If Bailey shuts the door on just one world title and Alcantara becomes the Greek god of K's, you still do the deal.

Some of you don't want to hear it: but this Ben guy knows what he's doing. What is needed now above all things is a competing team now and financial flexibility going forward. The man has done that beautifully.

[Lefty on the Mound]

Would love to have been a fly on the wall when Ben went to Larry to ask permission to make an exchange for Bailey with Billy Beane and Ben told Larry that he'd have to give Billy Head as well.

[BosRedSox5]

.378 slugging. If he ends up making the majority of starts in RF, I'll eat my hat.

[The Gray Eagle]

He's a tremendous right fielder. Let's stop acting like we need a .800+ OPS at every position. The line-up is more fine.

He's a "tremendous" RF who played all of 153 innings there last year, and was -5 runs there (-9 enhanced) according to Fielding Bible. He looked great in 600 innings there in 2009, but has been a little below average in the 800 or so innings he's played out there since. As for UZR/150, his last 3 years in RF have gone 29.7, -3.1 and -20.2. Based on the always questionable defensive stats, I would definitely not expect great defense from him in RF next year.

He also hits lefties like Trot Nixon and has zero power. As a LHH, he can't platoon with Kalish, so when he plays, he will be playing instead of Kalish. At least he walks, so there's that. But he's another guy who will get too many at-bats for us next year, and his will come in a corner OF role.

[Foulkey Reese]

“I love the Bay Area, but if you’re going to get traded, I can’t think of a better situation for myself and my family to be in. It’s a big market, big team, and I’m excited about the opportunity to win over there, especially knowing Bobby V.”

On his chat with Red Sox GM Ben Cherington:

“He wanted to just welcome me to the team. They said I’ve been of interest to them for most of the offseason and they were close a number of times and they couldn’t think of a better time to get a deal done. He said they’re looking forward to having me in Boston, and I’m looking forward to getting started in Spring Training.

http://janelee.mlblogs.com/

[SoxScout]

.378 slugging. If he ends up making the majority of starts in RF, I'll eat my hat.

2011 Red Sox hit .233/.299/.353 in RF

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

Sweeney with Ludwick or Jones works. How is Sweeney's defense?

Platoon of Ludwick and Sweeney. Kalish starts in minors until 100% healthy. Comes up and replaces Sweeney. Takes over on a permanent basis in 2013.

Call it The Ryan Plan

[knucklecup]

While Kalish is the future of RF, maybe in April if he is 100% in March, I see Kosuke Fukudome as a buy-low candidate over the next month on a 1 year deal.

Maybe not with Sweeney, but who knows.

Completely agreed. He was given JD Drew treatment in Chicago because he was severely overpaid. That not his fault, that's the incompetent Jim Hendry's fault.

The guy simply gets on base and at a couple million bucks, he'd be a perfect fit in right, despite being left handed.

[rembrat]

I think the caveat emptor with most of these pitchers is the injury risk, and Bailey has been shelved his share of time, but I'm sure most are willing to take the risk with Bailey. I didn't say you're making it up, but I'd imagine some have a higher risk appetite than you may have. The reward is big with Bailey, and I'm sure the Red Sox can keep him healt...oh, right.

Still, all things considered, while I didn't dislike Reddick, he occasionally reeked of a lefty Francoeur (and Sweeney seems like a wash at the plate and in the field, if FG's UZR/150 numbers are to be believed). So essentially it comes down to Bailey for the minor leaguers, who are A ball lottery tickets that didn't even crack the system's top 10. Personally, I think Bailey has a better chance of being effective with the Red Sox than the prospects in the deal have a shot of being productive major leaguers (or better trade chips than they currently are) in the future. So in conclusion, Libya is a land of contrast, and I don't see a major problem with this deal.

I agree with all of this. The package for Bailey was pretty "meh" so I dont doubt Bailey's chances at outperforming Reddick+. Although I'll say that the haul illustrates the health concerns with him. Beane didnt have to trade him today. He could have held out for a better package but he didnt. He knows exactly what that elbow looks like.

[Rasputin]

I think this trade is a pretty clear signal the Sox think Ryan Sweeney is their 2012 RF.

He's 26, is a proven commodity, has decent on base skills, has a 24 UZR according to Fangraphs, and can sit against lefties without freaking out about it.

If anything, he's a hedge against whether or not Kalish comes back healthy and is capable of producing at the major league level. If Kalish does, then he's trade bait.

I like this deal. Now the Sox have a major league RF who can produce league average offense with above average defense and can be easily shoved aside if Kalish resumes his mantle as the RFer of the future. In the meantime there is certainty at the position.
Reddick's tools were interesting but his lack of selectivity was an issue. A swap good for both sides.

Bailey has incredible stuff, and now the Sox have two guys capable of closing who are cheap. Bailey has trouble staying on the field but if he doesn't Melancon is capable of closing.

No downside to this move. Even if the other prospects are studs, they are so far from the majors at this point that trading them to help plug holes at the major league level is a wise move.

I think this post makes it pretty clear that you're fucking nuts.

Ryan Sweeney is not an everyday player. He's got a sub .600 OPS against lefties and his OPS against righties is no great shakes. There is pretty much no way in hell a right fielder can be good enough to overcome a crappy bat.

[mauidano]

All in all pleased with the deal. Read all the posts and valid points for the most part. Look, this is NO surprise to anyone, we all knew Bailey was probably coming. And we knew Reddick was probably not much longer for here either. The addition of Sweeney is a plus to the mix but it wasn't about him. The RF will sort itself out this Spring. I think the back half of the 'pen is solidifying, Jenks or no Jenks.

Edited by mauidano, 28 December 2011 - 05:48 PM.

[Sprowl]

It's amazing how little power Sweeney has for a guy listed at 6'4" 223. I did an overlay of his Oakland at-bats on Fenway to see whether he might have some opposite-field power, and... nothing. Not one of his 2011 or 2010 at-bats in Oakland would even have reached the Monster, let alone gone over it.

On the bright side, he's patient: 4.43 P/PA in 2011, just after Granderson and Abreu. He could be annoying like Brett Gardner.

[mauidano]

It's amazing how little power Sweeney has for a guy listed at 6'4" 223. I did an overlay of his Oakland at-bats on Fenway to see whether he might have some opposite-field power, and... nothing. Not one of his 2011 or 2010 at-bats in Oakland would even have reached the Monster, let alone gone over it.

On the bright side, he's patient: 4.43 P/PA in 2011, just after Granderson and Abreu. He could be annoying like Brett Gardner.

So no power and obviously no speed with one SB. Stunned that not one AB would have made it to The Wall. More of a platoon player? Will he make it to the 25 man roster come April?

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I was expecting a package something like what was sent for Bailey alone. Getting back another useful part, even if he's not really suited to start in RF, is a nice surprise. I consider this a nice step in the right direction. And with Bailey in the mix, we can all take a breath and chill out a little about the bullpen. They still need a starting pitcher, and may still be looking for another outfielder (I hope they are, at least), but there's time to fill out the roster. I'm starting to get excited about the idea of Bard as a starter, and this deal makes seeing that happen just a bit more likely.

[DannyDarwinism]

Would love to have been a fly on the wall when Ben went to Larry to ask permission to make an exchange for Bailey with Billy Beane and Ben told Larry that he'd have to give Billy Head as well.

Fantastic.

[The Boomer]

2011 Red Sox hit .233/.299/.353 in RF

Sweeney's .378 slugging might go up some moving half his games from the Oakland Coliseum to the more friendly confines of Fenway.

[Rasputin]

2011 Red Sox hit .233/.299/.353 in RF

That's because JD Drew died and didn't bother to tell anyone .222/.315/.302. Had this trade not gone down, the bulk of the ABs would have gone to Reddick and Kalish who almost certainly would have outperformed Drew.

[JohntheBaptist]

Would love to have been a fly on the wall when Ben went to Larry to ask permission to make an exchange for Bailey with Billy Beane and Ben told Larry that he'd have to give Billy Head as well.

"...I'm sorry, which Billy Bean(e) are we talking about again?"

I agree with all of this. The package for Bailey was pretty "meh" so I dont doubt Bailey's chances at outperforming Reddick+. Although I'll say that the haul illustrates the health concerns with him. Beane didnt have to trade him today. He could have held out for a better package but he didnt. He knows exactly what that elbow looks like.

What kind of market was there? I generally agree but then Beane will probably always take a toolsy OF over a closer, yes? Fair point though. I'm glad the risk drove his price down though--the risk should be implicit for any pitcher really.

Re: RF, wonder if Aviles taking OF reps in winter ball means they're aiming more toward Sweeney/ McDonald until Kalish/ McDonald would work? Aviles the 5th OF/ util guy thereafter?

[tims4wins]

Sweeney's .378 slugging might go up some moving half his games from the Oakland Coliseum to the more friendly confines of Fenway.

Road splits last 4 years (his Oakland career):
2008: 357 OBP / 403 SLG
2009: 373 OBP / 469 SLG
2010: 304 OBP / 333 SLG
2011: 340 OBP / 291 SLG

Last couple years have been dreadful regardless of ballpark