762 replies to this topic

[phragle]

Morris Claiborne and Russell Shepard entering the draft.

http://espn.go.com/n...-entering-draft

As well as LSU's 6'6" 306 lbs DT, Michael Brockers per @NFLMocks

I'm a fan of Brockers', but It's hard to say where he will be picked. I think most experts thought he would be heading back to school. I'd guess somewhere between 20th and 40th overall.

Edit: I guess he was told he could go as high as the end of the first round per SBNation.com http://www.sbnation....el-brockers-lsu

The experts that have voiced their opinion think he'll go higher.

Edited by phragle, 12 January 2012 - 07:22 PM.

[jsinger121]

Trent Richardson and Dre Kirkpatrick declared.

http://profootballta...nter-nfl-draft/

[swr22]

I think Alshon Jeffrey would be great but there are some questions regarding his speed.

[swr22]

Eric Page from Toledo might be a nice WR pick-up

[SoxScout]

Sigh: Arkansas QB Wilson coming back for senior season

[RedOctober3829]

Bill should draft Dont'e Hightower and Mark Barron with their first two picks. Hightower would be a great 3-4 ILB next to Spikes which would push Mayo to the outside. Barron would be that physical safety next to Chung we've been looking for.

[SoxScout]

Bill should draft Dont'e Hightower and Mark Barron with their first two picks. Hightower would be a great 3-4 ILB next to Spikes which would push Mayo to the outside. Barron would be that physical safety next to Chung we've been looking for.

I don't understand, Chung is the physical, play near the line, SS. Patriots need a ball-hawk FS.

[SoxScout]

This is apparently the SI.com draft guy:

https://twitter.com/...965810692927488

Area scouts & sources tell me Kendall Wright/WR/Baylor ranks as the #1 wide out on #NFLDraft boards for a lot of teams

[Seels]

I guess if he means #1 as in no shot in hell of Blackmon. Blackmon is one of the best WR prospects of the last decade.

[Baby Got Daubach]

I guess if he means #1 as in no shot in hell of Blackmon. Blackmon is one of the best WR prospects of the last decade.

Really? Most of what I've read says that he's the best in the draft, but isn't on the same level as those super elite WR prospects like Megatron, Larry Fitgerald, or Andre Johnson (or even A.J. Green and Julio Jones) because he doesn't have elite speed. By the way, I'm not saying that all those guys are fast, just that speed is what keeps Blackmon from being regarded as highly.

[RedOctober3829]

I don't understand, Chung is the physical, play near the line, SS. Patriots need a ball-hawk FS.

If they indeed convert McCourty to FS, they will have solved that problem. I think you also need to get some insurance for Chung who is seemingly made of glass. Obviously, you'll need to make a few moves for corners either in the draft or FA.

Edited by RedOctober3829, 14 January 2012 - 11:30 AM.

[Kid T]

Hightower would be a great 3-4 ILB next to Spikes which would push Mayo to the outside.

Mayo is too small to play OLB in the Patriots system if they plan on keeping the 3-4. The prototype OLB is 6'5" and 265 lbs - the size being necessary to set the edge against the run.

[PaulinMyrBch]

I think Alshon Jeffrey would be great but there are some questions regarding his speed.

That is the combine 40 time I'm interested to see. I expect him to fall like a lead balloon if he doesn't show up at the combine in top shape, but even if he does, I would expect most teams to question exactly why one of the top wideouts last year showed up for his most important college season fat and out of shape.

[axx]

Unless Green Bay loses, the Saints pick is going to be #28.

[Groovenstein]

Unless Green Bay loses, the Saints pick is going to be #28.

So The Hoodie traded #28 for #28 and got #56 for his trouble. Too bad the Saints didn't pull a Niners and land him Jerod Mayo. Still, gotta love it.

[mascho]

I am stunned that Darron Thomas has declared for the draft. He is going to need a huge pro day, as well as a huge day at the combine, to make this decision worth while.

[Riles335]

If they indeed convert McCourty to FS, they will have solved that problem. I think you also need to get some insurance for Chung who is seemingly made of glass. Obviously, you'll need to make a few moves for corners either in the draft or FA.

I think Chung has experienced some pretty fluke injuries. In his four years at Oregon he never missed a snap playing in 51 consecutive games so this string of injuries seems to be a bit odd. I know that they might start to add up over time and injuries can happen whenever but to my Chung has just run into some pretty bad luck with some small breaks and sprains.

[phragle]

So #27?

[Saints Rest]

Yep. According to Reiss:

The Patriots own two first-round draft choices in 2012, their own and the Saints. The pick from the Saints came via a 2011 draft-day trade in which the Patriots acquired a 2011 second-round pick (RB Shane Vereen) and the '12 first-rounder.

With the New Orleans Saints losing to the San Francisco 49ers on Saturday, the positioning of their first-round pick is set. It will be 27th.

Recent No. 27 picks:

2011 -- CB Jimmy Smith (Ravens)
2010 -- CB Devin McCourty (Patriots)
2009 -- RB Donald Brown (Colts)
2008 -- CB Antoine Cason (Chargers)
2007 -- WR Robert Meachem (Saints)
2006 -- RB DeAngelo Williams (Panthers)
2005 -- WR Roddy White (Falcons)
2004 -- DE Jason Babin (Texans)

[bowiac]

I am stunned that Darron Thomas has declared for the draft. He is going to need a huge pro day, as well as a huge day at the combine, to make this decision worth while.

I'm wondering if he thinks that he's a 4th or 5th round talent regardless of what he does this year, so he may as well go now? This might be a slighty shallower than normal QB year, and Thomas is healthy now, so why wait?

[ethangl]

I am stunned that Darron Thomas has declared for the draft. He is going to need a huge pro day, as well as a huge day at the combine, to make this decision worth while.

I'm wondering if he thinks that he's a 4th or 5th round talent regardless of what he does this year, so he may as well go now? This might be a slighty shallower than normal QB year, and Thomas is healthy now, so why wait?

Generally speaking, when this happens it's because a guy knows he doesn't have a chance of being eligible next year -- which could be for a variety of reasons.

Also I don't think there's any question that this a bad year for QB's after the first two -- for instance Ryan Tannehill is project as 1st/early 2nd rounder and he is nowhere near as good as Ryan Mallett. Mallett would easily be the 3rd QB taken this year.

Edited by ethangl, 16 January 2012 - 02:08 PM.

[phragle]

Generally speaking, when this happens it's because a guy knows he doesn't have a chance of being eligible next year -- which could be for a variety of reasons.

Also I don't think there's any question that this a bad year for QB's after the first two -- for instance Ryan Tannehill is project as 1st/early 2nd rounder and he is nowhere near as good as Ryan Mallett. Mallett would easily be the 3rd QB taken this year.

Yeah, it makes you wonder what we could get for Mallet.

I like him as the eventual heir to Brady, but the way Brady is playing right now (and the last 5 years) you have to think he's still in his prime. I don't think they did a lot to help Mallet's value, but he'd absolutely the third best QB in the draft. At least third best actually. If we got offered first for him I'd do it, otherwise I keep him. I don't think we will get that, but like you said Tannehill is currently ranked 24th over at CBS so who knows.

http://www.cbssports...ngs/TSX/2012_QB

[bowiac]

Just out of curiosity - would most people still be OK with trading one of the first rounders as they usually do? In the most uncharitable scenario, lets say they're offered the Packers 2013 first rounder, and their 2012 second rounder for #27, does anyone turn that down?

[E5 Yaz]

Just out of curiosity - would most people still be OK with trading one of the first rounders as they usually do?

I think most of us fully expect it

[BigSoxFan]

Just out of curiosity - would most people still be OK with trading one of the first rounders as they usually do? In the most uncharitable scenario, lets say they're offered the Packers 2013 first rounder, and their 2012 second rounder for #27, does anyone turn that down?

Tough to make that call until we see what kind of talent is going to be available at #27. From a pure value standpoint, that's a trade that's tough to turn down. Of course, I'd much rather make the same trade with a team that has a better chance of being bad next year.

[SoxScout]

Just out of curiosity - would most people still be OK with trading one of the first rounders as they usually do? In the most uncharitable scenario, lets say they're offered the Packers 2013 first rounder, and their 2012 second rounder for #27, does anyone turn that down?

Nope, that'd give us what, 32, 49, 61, 64 or something like that.

[Shelterdog]

I think most of us fully expect it

I expect it and welcome it. Yeah, you lose a little bit of talent in the closing years of the Brady era but I'm still going to want a good team after Brady retires and adding an extra second for waiting a year to pick a first helps build your team long term.

[bowiac]

I certainly expect it, but I'd gotten the sense more and more fans were growing weary of it. I certainly welcome it, pretty much regardless of what talent is available at #27 (assuming nothing crazy like a top 5 guy dropping).

[dcmissle]

Just out of curiosity - would most people still be OK with trading one of the first rounders as they usually do? In the most uncharitable scenario, lets say they're offered the Packers 2013 first rounder, and their 2012 second rounder for #27, does anyone turn that down?

Having a much better understanding of precisely how the Pats approach the draft after reading Holley's most recent book, I will no longer be surprised -- or upset -- by anything they do on draft day, within reason. The only thing that is likely to ruffle my feathers from this point forward is the drafting of people with checkered injury histories -- especially D-backs.

If you read that book, you'll come away understanding that the Pats view very, very few players as suitable for them -- even in the first round.

The most interesting aspect, to me, is that BB views the second round as perhaps the most risky from a bust standpoint. These are, in the main, players with first-round talent, who for whatever reason have never been able to translate it into results on the field in college. (I'm not paraphrasing -- there is a direct quote of BB saying this). So when he trades into the second round -- BB is knowingly undertaking greater risk. According to him.

I am concerned about Brady's ticking clock. When he leaves, there is no reason to believe now that we're looking at anything but NFL average at the position. Which will be a dramatic change for all of us. But if he does not believe first rounders will help us, who am I to say, in real time, that he is wrong?

[bowiac]

I expect it and welcome it. Yeah, you lose a little bit of talent in the closing years of the Brady era but I'm still going to want a good team after Brady retires and adding an extra second for waiting a year to pick a first helps build your team long term.

I strongly suspect this effect may not exist until Brady is a good deal older than he is actually. Assuming you're Belichick and you know pretty accurately how long Brady is gonna stick around, I'm not sure, even if you want to maximize the Brady years exclusively, that it makes sense to use both first round picks until you know Brady has only two years left.

Even in the short term - I suspect two late second round picks about equal the value of a single late first round pick. (Let alone the long term value of perpetual second round picks). The old Jimmy Johnson draft value chart supports this at least. This would not be true of an early/mid first round pick. #10 is worth about triple #42. #27 is worth only a little more than double #59 however.

[bowiac]

The most interesting aspect, to me, is that BB views the second round as perhaps the most risky from a bust standpoint. These are, in the main, players with first-round talent, who for whatever reason have never been able to translate it into results on the field in college. (I'm not paraphrasing -- there is a direct quote of BB saying this). So when he trades into the second round -- BB is knowingly undertaking greater risk. According to him.

I'm curious what this means. Second round picks are certainly more likely to be busts than first round picks, but surely Belichick doesn't think third round picks are better bets than second rounders, right? Is it just that a third round has low enough expectations that there's no such thing as a bust?

I'm confused by this. I can't tell if this is a really bold claim by Belichick, or a real banal one.

[dcmissle]

I'm curious what this means. Second round picks are certainly more likely to be busts than first round picks, but surely Belichick doesn't think third round picks are better bets than second rounders, right? Is it just that a third round has low enough expectations that there's no such thing as a bust?

I'm confused by this. I can't tell if this is a really bold claim by Belichick, or a real banal one.

Yes, in the third round, the ceilings are lower, which means the expectations are lower. (Again, according to BB).

At the same time, in the first round, the ceilings are high but the players are clean. So you have relative clarity in rounds 1 and 3, but a lot of fog -- and risk -- in round 2.

[Shelterdog]

I strongly suspect this effect may not exist until Brady is a good deal older than he is actually. Assuming you're Belichick and you know pretty accurately how long Brady is gonna stick around, I'm not sure, even if you want to maximize the Brady years exclusively, that it makes sense to use both first round picks until you know Brady has only two years left.

Even in the short term - I suspect two late second round picks about equal the value of a single late first round pick. (Let alone the long term value of perpetual second round picks). The old Jimmy Johnson draft value chart supports this at least. This would not be true of an early/mid first round pick. #10 is worth about triple #42. #27 is worth only a little more than double #59 however.

I dispute that BB really knows how long Brady plays: there's a very good chance Brady stops playing at a high level due to injuries( this happened to Montana and Marino and might happen to Manning).

Two seconds are likely to be better than a first. The rough numbers you see are that first rounders turn into good starters 75% of the time (a bit higher in the top ten, a little lower from 22-32), second round picks 50% of the time, third rounders a third of the time, fourth and fifth rounders about 20% of the time and 6th or 7th rounders about 10% of the time. Your expected return from the two seconds is about a starter and a half, and you're hoping to get 1 starter in the first, so that's a fairly easy deal.

[bowiac]

Yes, in the third round, the ceilings are lower, which means the expectations are lower. (Again, according to BB).

At the same time, in the first round, the ceilings are high but the players are clean. So you have relative clarity in rounds 1 and 3, but a lot of fog -- and risk -- in round 2.

Well isn't that just nomenclature then? We call you a bust if you're no good in the first 64 picks, but 65 on aren't busts, they're just picks that didn't work out. That doesn't really make the picks riskier, does it?

I dunno - I'm not seeing how that really alters draft strategy. The fact that second round picks have higher expectations shouldn't alter the desirability of the picks themselves.

[Shelterdog]

Yes, in the third round, the ceilings are lower, which means the expectations are lower. (Again, according to BB).

At the same time, in the first round, the ceilings are high but the players are clean. So you have relative clarity in rounds 1 and 3, but a lot of fog -- and risk -- in round 2.

He also spoke about Tate and Mike Wallace as high potential guys and they were both third rounders, so there's a little bit of inconsistency in what he said, but, yeah, that's his basic idea-a second round pick is a guy who's flashed first round ability but who doesn't project perfectly for one reason or another, so you can get a top talent if you pick the right guy but you can really blow it.

[sleepyjose03]

I think it's less about expectations and more about ceiling vs floor. BB is saying that a lot of 2nd rounders have 1st round upside - but a higher % to bust (which is why they fell to the 2nd round). 3rd rounders, however, don't have the same ceiling. But they probably have a higher floor (less chance to bust). Think about it - if you're drafting in the 3rd and all the guys with 1st round upside have been drafted, if the remaining talent all has roughly the same ceiling, you're going to look for the safer picks.

I'm not sure if the data backs this up - it can be tough to evaluate how many 3rd round picks are considered contributors. I dont have the ability to check stats like games played or anything at the moment. But if BB thinks that 2nd rounders are "riskier" the above reasoning would make a lot of sense to me.

[Super Nomario]

I think it's less about expectations and more about ceiling vs floor. BB is saying that a lot of 2nd rounders have 1st round upside - but a higher % to bust (which is why they fell to the 2nd round). 3rd rounders, however, don't have the same ceiling. But they probably have a higher floor (less chance to bust). Think about it - if you're drafting in the 3rd and all the guys with 1st round upside have been drafted, if the remaining talent all has roughly the same ceiling, you're going to look for the safer picks.

I'm not sure if the data backs this up - it can be tough to evaluate how many 3rd round picks are considered contributors. I dont have the ability to check stats like games played or anything at the moment. But if BB thinks that 2nd rounders are "riskier" the above reasoning would make a lot of sense to me.

It's kind of an odd and arbitrary distinction; there aren't necessarily going to be 32 "high-ceiling-but-risky" guys in any given year. I wonder how many guys the Pats have taken in the third round over the years they gave a second-round "grade" to. The third-rounders the Pats have taken recently - Ridley, Mallett, Price, Tate, McKenzie, Crable, O'Connell - seem mostly like high-ceiling / high-risk players to me.

[bowiac]

Evaluating NFL personnel is obviously extremely difficult, but I find it hard to believe that the coach who found Aaron Hernandez and Tom Brady really thinks that there aren't high upside guys available past the second round. That's kind of why we value draft picks in the NFL - the late round guys aren't just depth guys. They have the chance to be huge contributors (albeit at a lower rate than early round guys). This is in contrast to the NBA, where teams give away 2nd round picks, because there have been like 6 guys ever taken past the first round who even became starters.

I don't know what Belichick thinks of the guys that Nomario mentions, but it's hard to imagine they would have drafted Mallett or Price if they didn't think they had huge upside, because they certainly weren't guys with low "bust" chances...

[Toe Nash]

The only thing that is likely to ruffle my feathers from this point forward is the drafting of people with checkered injury histories -- especially D-backs.

Yeah, they really made a mistake taking Gronkowski after he had that scary back injury.

It seems like the injury thing depends on the player, and even previously healthy players can get injured. The top level talent is what really makes and breaks drafts for you, and unless you have a top ten pick often the only way to get that is by picking a guy with an injury history and hoping he overcomes it. Or being really lucky.

Edited by Toe Nash, 17 January 2012 - 02:55 PM.

[Shelterdog]

Yeah, they really made a mistake taking Gronkowski after he had that scary back injury.

It seems pretty clear how they treat injuries: they don't draft guys who had problems in multiple college seasons, like every team they will draft a guy who had a problem in college, but unlike most teams they will draft a player who had an injury his last year in college.

It worked well with Gronk. The injury wasn't the problem with Tate so that's ok as well. It hasn't worked so well with Dowling but we'll see if that was an abberation.

[bowiac]

It seems like the injury thing depends on the player, and even previously healthy players can get injured. The top level talent is what really makes and breaks drafts for you, and unless you have a top ten pick often the only way to get that is by picking a guy with an injury history and hoping he overcomes it. Or being really lucky.

I don't think this is accurate. I mean, maybe you just mean this falls under the "being really lucky" rubric, but the vast majority of superstar talent in the NFL did not come into the league via top ten picks. This isn't the NBA where other than Manu Ginobli and Steve Nash, every top player was drafted in the top 10 (and Nash was 15th). The NFL talent distribution just doesn't look anywhere near as top heavy/predictable as the NBA.

Obviously top picks are more likely to be stars than 5th round picks, but there are a lot of stars drafted in the 5th round too. I don't think there's any reason to believe that the trading down strategy is even less likely to produce star talent, let alone producing starters/contributors. (As opposed to the NBA again - where every team would happily trade every 2nd round pick for 10 years to get a top 10 draft choice).

Edited by bowiac, 17 January 2012 - 03:23 PM.

[phragle]

Dre Kirkpatrick Arrested For Pot Possession

was busted with less than 20 grams of cannabis. No other details are available yet.

http://thebiglead.co...-for-nfl-draft/

Not sure how badly this could affect his draft stock, but he is or was the consensus #2 CB behind Claiborne.

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

Dre Kirkpatrick Arrested For Pot Possession


http://thebiglead.co...-for-nfl-draft/

Not sure how badly this could affect his draft stock, but he is or was the consensus #2 CB behind Claiborne.

First round talent. Played in SEC. Coached by a friend of belichick. I've seen this movie before. It ends well.

[JimBoSox9]

Are NFL coaches really dumb enough to still consider pot to be a sign of character issues?

Absolutely, if he falls, BB be all over this.

[phragle]

Are NFL coaches really dumb enough to still consider pot to be a sign of character issues?

"OM NOM NOM. YOU TELL ME JIMBO. OM NOM NOM."

[Shelterdog]

Are NFL coaches really dumb enough to still consider pot to be a sign of character issues?

Yes. It's more of a second order problem--I don't think it's that they think pot is so bad, it's that a guy who tests positive or gets arrested in the six months before the draft is, in their minds, someone who doesn't take football seriously.

[dcmissle]

Yes. It's more of a second order problem--I don't think it's that they think pot is so bad, it's that a guy who tests positive or gets arrested in the six months before the draft is, in their minds, someone who doesn't take football seriously.

Or, less charitably, a moron.

Two Redskins -- their best o-lineman and tight end -- lost 4 games for smoking weed when they knew they would be tested They are veterans -- you can have them.

With this guy, it will be thrown into the mix and evaluated based on all the other information they are able to glean. Is this the first time? Any other issues? And so forth.

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

Kiper's first mock draft is out. It's "Insider subscription only" so I'll just post their but the Pats selections and one line of his full analysis (if this isn't okay please let me know or have mod remove).

27. Michael Brockers, DL, LSU What he can do is add explosiveness on the interior -- he's a pentrator with the ability to dominate if left to a single blocker, which frees people up.

32. Andre Branch, LB, Clemson Branch has the athleticism to be more than a pure pass-rusher, as he should be able to develop into a well-rounded OLB under Bill Belichick.

[Old Fart Tree]

(checks to see that they're not TEs, RBs, or QBs)

Hey, sure! a DL and a LB! Awesome! I WILL TAKE IT

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

Kiper's first mock draft is out.

WalterFootball.com (a good mock draft source) has the same first round picks.

With their thoughts:

27. Michael Brockers, DE/DT, LSU
Here's one of many front-seven upgrades the Patriots will need to make. With Albert Haynesworth gone, they need to address the front line. Michael Brockers, the top prospect on the board, has the size Bill Belichick likes in his linemen. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Pick change; previously Jerel Worthy, DT

32. Andre Branch, DE, Clemson
Andre Branch is a really good fit for the Patriots. He can play defensive end in the 4-3 and rush linebacker 3-4, filling both needs in those schemes. He also has the size that Bill Belichick likes out of his rush linebackers.

Pick change; previously Mark Barron, SS