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'Royal Flush' revisited


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23 replies to this topic

#1 LMontro

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Posted 23 December 2011 - 09:38 PM

Is a dream rotation anything like a Royal Flush?

#2 jon abbey


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Posted 23 December 2011 - 10:50 PM

Is a dream rotation anything like a Royal Flush?


I'm just saying it's rare to have five genuine SP prospects in a AAA rotation all at the same time, the Braves have had some great minor league rotations recently but five is unusual. Anyway, I am not Dellin2.50... :lol:

(Was Ian Kennedy part of the Royal Flush? It's kind of even funnier if he wasn't.)

#3 Wingack


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Posted 23 December 2011 - 11:52 PM

I actually don't think he was, or it might have been Clippard.

#4 EvilEmpire

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Posted 25 December 2011 - 02:15 AM

I actually don't think he was, or it might have been Clippard.


I remember Kennedy being discussed as one, or rather, mocked as one when he was in the rotation for a little while in 2008. Not sure about Clippard.

#5 jon abbey


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Posted 25 December 2011 - 02:58 AM

I think there were a few versions, this seems to be the latest (although probably a year old at least):

Royal Flush: Hughes, Sabathia, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos.

#6 jon abbey


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Posted 25 December 2011 - 03:01 AM

This maybe was the original: Hughes/Sanchez/Joba/Wang/Betances

Edit: yeah, here we go:

http://forums.nyyfan...erlain-Betances

#7 EvilEmpire

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Posted 25 December 2011 - 03:19 AM

This maybe was the original: Hughes/Sanchez/Joba/Wang/Betances

Edit: yeah, here we go:

http://forums.nyyfan...erlain-Betances


Thanks! Great job digging that up. That's why you're a good mod :)

The mocking I remember came from around these parts of course, so I guess I knew as much about the "royal flush" as the Sox fans around here. Apart from a few weeks when I was looking for a good Yankee forum home, I stay away from nyyfans.

#8 samuelLsamson

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Posted 25 December 2011 - 11:46 AM

This maybe was the original: Hughes/Sanchez/Joba/Wang/Betances

Edit: yeah, here we go:

http://forums.nyyfan...erlain-Betances


Wow, Hughes2.50 was pretty high on those guys...

As for pure upside (absolute ceiling)

1) Betances (= Pedro Martinez in his prime '97-'03)
2) Hughes (= 2.50 ERA for career -est. 175 career ERA+)
3/4) Sanchez/Chamberlain, identical upsides (= career avg. Smoltz prime)
5) Wang 3.30 career era, 130 ERA+ career average)


... even as an absolute ceiling, and even being Hughes2.50, that was a bold assessment.

#9 jon abbey


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Posted 25 December 2011 - 12:14 PM

Yep, that's why he was so widely mocked, even on the lame nyyfans site.

#10 Wingack


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Posted 25 December 2011 - 01:54 PM

Yep, that's why he was so widely mocked, even on the lame nyyfans site.


Yeah he got run out of town basically.

#11 samuelLsamson

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Posted 25 December 2011 - 04:33 PM

If I saw someone posting here like that I would just assume they were trolling, Pedro references and all, but this guy seems sincere. And nuts. I remember his name surfacing a few years back, something to do with Cubic Transformations, whatever they were supposed to be, but wasn't paying too much attention to the NYYFans site at the time. Sounds like they were wise to flush him, royally.

#12 EvilEmpire

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Posted 25 December 2011 - 05:33 PM

When I see stuff like that I just assume he's a kid filled with youthful enthusiasm for his team. We were all young once.



#13 jon abbey


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Posted 25 December 2011 - 06:17 PM

I don't think he was a kid, though, wasn't he a professor or an associate professor or something like that?

#14 JakeRae


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Posted 25 December 2011 - 06:41 PM

If I saw someone posting here like that I would just assume they were trolling, Pedro references and all, but this guy seems sincere. And nuts. I remember his name surfacing a few years back, something to do with Cubic Transformations, whatever they were supposed to be, but wasn't paying too much attention to the NYYFans site at the time. Sounds like they were wise to flush him, royally.

The Cubic Transformation is one of my favorite statistical analysis tools.Posted Image

#15 Mr Jums

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Posted 25 December 2011 - 07:41 PM

Wow, Hughes2.50 was pretty high on those guys...



... even as an absolute ceiling, and even being Hughes2.50, that was a bold assessment.


A career ERA+ of 175 would have placed Phil Hughes second all time, behind only Mariano Rivera (minimum of 1000 innings pitched), which to me seems like a fairly reasonable estimation. Just as an aside, holy shit is Mariano Rivera good at pitching.

#16 jayhoz


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Posted 25 December 2011 - 08:27 PM

I don't think he was a kid, though, wasn't he a professor or an associate professor or something like that?

Yup. His best trick was requiring his critics to provide their credentials. Not a Nobel prize winner in statistics? Sorry, you dont get to see my methods.

#17 cannonball 1729

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Posted 25 December 2011 - 08:49 PM

I don't think he was a kid, though, wasn't he a professor or an associate professor or something like that?


Yup. His best trick was requiring his critics to provide their credentials. Not a Nobel prize winner in statistics? Sorry, you dont get to see my methods.


He was Matthew Frank, a former lecturer at Ithaca College.

In other words, for an academic who was always requiring people to show their credentials, he wasn't even a professor.

#18 samuelLsamson

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Posted 25 December 2011 - 10:56 PM

He was Matthew Frank, a former lecturer at Ithaca College.

In other words, for an academic who was always requiring people to show their credentials, he wasn't even a professor.


On the plus side, his courses were pretty easy.

#19 SumnerH


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Posted 28 December 2011 - 02:39 PM

This maybe was the original: Hughes/Sanchez/Joba/Wang/Betances

Edit: yeah, here we go:

http://forums.nyyfan...erlain-Betances


Nice pull. From page 2:

Let's make our projection for the 25 Man team in 2010:

ROTATION:
1. Hughes
2. Betances
3. Chamberlain
4. Sanchez
5. Clippard

PEN:
CP: Whelan
SU: Cox
SU: Claggett
MR: McCutchen
MR: Melancon
Lefty: Angel Reyes

LINEUP:
1. CF: Gardner
2. SS: Jeter
3. 2B: Cano
4. 3B: Arod
5. RF: Tabata
6. DH: Matsui
7. 1B: E. Duncan
8: C: G-Rod or Pilettre
9. LF: Jackson

BENCH:
OF: Melky
OF: Curtis
Util: Vechionacci
Util: Nunez
C: Montero



#20 cromulence

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Posted 29 December 2011 - 11:49 AM

Ahhhhh Marcos Vechionacci. I remember people trying to talk themselves into him being a real prospect back when I would go to the YES message boards (about the same as NYYFans). And poor Eric Duncan. We waited....and waited....and waited.

#21 mt8thsw9th


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Posted 29 December 2011 - 12:11 PM

The prospect forums on NYYFans were particularly maddening. I actually got in an argument (and was ganged up on) when I told someone that their comparison of Mitch Jones to Adam Dunn was idiotic. And there was that 38SpecialOlympics dude that would tell everyone who would listen that Steven White was better than Papelbon. I'm glad I don't waste my time with that stuff any longer.

#22 glennhoffmania


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Posted 29 December 2011 - 12:27 PM

I could've sworn I read about a royal flush of Hughes, Joba, Horne, Betances and Kennedy.

#23 mt8thsw9th


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Posted 29 December 2011 - 12:32 PM

I could've sworn I read about a royal flush of Hughes, Joba, Horne, Betances and Kennedy.


You did:

http://forums.nyyfan...l=1#post4266960

Edited by mt8thsw9th, 29 December 2011 - 12:33 PM.


#24 Oil Can Dan

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Posted 29 December 2011 - 01:00 PM

He was Matthew Frank, a former lecturer at Ithaca College.

In other words, for an academic who was always requiring people to show their credentials, he wasn't even a professor.

Holy shit - I'm having a moment here. I think that's the same guy that used to post on a Giants board I used to frequent. He posted under the handle "Matt in Syracuse" and was pretty crazy over there until he got the boot. It's a long story, but that dude directly led to me getting a job with the Giants ten years ago. I used to read his craziness about cubic transformations on NYYfans but never knew it was the same dude I used to spar with on that Giants board.




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