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Nolan Wins the Darvish Bid


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#51 Sprowl


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Posted 18 January 2012 - 10:10 PM

Sprowl you yourself just nailed it. There is some data (velocity), scouting reports and a lot of hype. We heard all this about Dice K how he was a surefire front line starter. Heck wasn't Tazawa originally reported to have a 94-95 mph fastball? Time will tell.


Tazawa's claim to fame was always his fastball command with average velocity at best. By the time we saw him in the majors, he was within a few months of Tommy John surgery and barely touched 90 mph. When he returned last summer, he threw 91-93, so there is a reasonable prospect that his velocity is back to average, but nobody had Tazawa in Matsuzaka's league, much less Darvish's.

Where Darvish is concerned, we have a lot more than just scouting reports. He has pitched in international competitions for several years. His videos are all over Youtube, so viewers can check out his repertoire and movement for themselves. The Rangers have themselves a very strong starting rotation.

#52 Foulkey Reese


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Posted 18 January 2012 - 10:26 PM

Where Darvish is concerned, we have a lot more than just scouting reports. He has pitched in international competitions for several years. His videos are all over Youtube, so viewers can check out his repertoire and movement for themselves. The Rangers have themselves a very strong starting rotation.


I feel like I watched 1,000 Dicek videos between his signing and the start of the season. Hell I still have a ton of them on my PC. The movement we saw on Youtube almost never appeared when he was pitching for the Sox.

#53 rembrat


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Posted 18 January 2012 - 10:39 PM

Matsuzaka had a 2.95 ERA in eight seasons in Japan. He never once had an ERA under 2.00. He had an 8.7 K/9. Darvish just completed his fifth-straight season in which he had an ERA under 2.00 and a whip under 1.00. This year was his finest to date: 16-5, 1.48 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 240 K, 32 BB, 5 HR in 207 IP (stats as of Sept. 27). Overall, Darvish managed a 1.996 ERA in his seven NPB years, with an 8.9 K/9. Demonstrably better.


http://www.fangraphs...is-not-daisuke/

Darvish is better. Way better. Although when I read that he has five pitches that project to be above average it raises an eyebrow. I have to see that in the majors to truly believe it. I'll give you that his fastball, slider, and cutter are probably top notch though. But when you say he has five, I'm a little skeptical. There are few pitchers that have five above average pitches.

#54 Soxbrained

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Posted 18 January 2012 - 10:49 PM

How do you measure the difference between a splitter and a changeup? It can be done, though not very well, with PitchFX, but there are no PitchFX data from the Japanese leagues.

I hope you have something more substantive to bring to this discussion than "yeah sure." If not, then STFU.


Naah, you STFU.

#55 Sprowl


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Posted 18 January 2012 - 10:52 PM

Naah, you STFU.


Buh-bye.

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#56 maufman


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Posted 19 January 2012 - 09:27 AM

Not to be a masochist, but the AAV on John Lackey's contract is $16.5mm. Including the posting fee, the Rangers are paying about $2mm more than that for Darvish. Perhaps more pertinently, they're paying about $3mm per year more than C.J. Wilson got from the Angels.

Darvish is younger and has more upside than either Lackey or Wilson.

I'm not saying this is likely to end well for Texas -- long-term contracts with free-agent* starting pitchers seldom do. But neither do I see this as a blunder, as some here do..


*Darvish was effectively a FA, because Texas had to compensate Nippon for the value of club control.

#57 Frank, Fenway

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Posted 19 January 2012 - 01:38 PM

The posting fee really shouldn't factor into his AAV at all

Edited by Frank, Fenway, 19 January 2012 - 01:38 PM.


#58 walkoffblast

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Posted 19 January 2012 - 03:32 PM

The posting fee really shouldn't factor into his AAV at all


It shouldn't factor into the AAV but it should factor into the cost for the Rangers. AAV only matters if you are close to the salary cap, so for almost every team in baseball there isn't much of a difference between AAV and cost. I see many just saying this is basically the Dice-k deal plus a little bit. On the surface maybe but it has surprised me how all along that people have been ignoring the massive difference between the AAV savings that existed for the Sox and the fact that those aren't there for the Rangers. They both bid a little over 50 million but the Sox had plenty of reason to believe they would get something like 20 million of that back in savings (not to mention his deal was backloaded). The Red Sox may have valued Dice-k around 14.5 per year in true cost while the Rangers are looking at something closer to 18.5 mil depending on what the details are. That is a significant difference.

#59 maufman


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Posted 19 January 2012 - 07:24 PM

It shouldn't factor into the AAV but it should factor into the cost for the Rangers. AAV only matters if you are close to the salary cap, so for almost every team in baseball there isn't much of a difference between AAV and cost. I see many just saying this is basically the Dice-k deal plus a little bit. On the surface maybe but it has surprised me how all along that people have been ignoring the massive difference between the AAV savings that existed for the Sox and the fact that those aren't there for the Rangers. They both bid a little over 50 million but the Sox had plenty of reason to believe they would get something like 20 million of that back in savings (not to mention his deal was backloaded). The Red Sox may have valued Dice-k around 14.5 per year in true cost while the Rangers are looking at something closer to 18.5 mil depending on what the details are. That is a significant difference.


If the Rangers amortize the posting fee over six years (as I presume they will), then AAV is a very sensible way of thinking of the Darvish contract, even apart from potential luxury tax implications. So long as the Rangers can comfortably meet their debt-service obligations, they're probably more interested in how Darvish's deal hits the P/L than how it affects cash flow.

#60 Infield Infidel


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Posted 21 January 2012 - 12:07 AM

Darvish's contract has an interesting opt-out for the sixth year

Finally, with about 25 minutes to go before the deadline, the sides were shaking hands on the key parts of the deal. Texas got the six-year deal it wanted, but Darvish also got the ability to opt out of the sixth year if he ends up high in the Cy Young voting several times in the first five years of the contract. Details were worked out and an announcement was made about the agreement three minutes prior to the deadline.

http://espn.go.com/d...mile-yu-darvish

#61 rembrat


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Posted 21 January 2012 - 01:42 PM

That certainly is creative. Here it is in-depth courtesy of Cot's:

2017 becomes player option (no buyout) if Darvish 1) wins Cy Young in 2012-16 and finishes 2nd in CY vote in another season 2012-16, or 2) finishes 2nd in CY vote once in 2012-16 and finishes 2nd-4th in two other seasons 2012-16


Scenario A: Win CY in 2012-16 AND finish 2nd in one other season.
Scenario B: Finish 2nd in CY from 2012-2016 AND finish anywhere from 2nd to 4th in TWO other seasons between 2012-2016.

So basically in 5 years, he has to have 2 incredible seasons or 3 really great seasons for that final year to become a player option. That doesn't seem likely.

Oh, and was anyone else surprised to see how big he was? I never really paid much attention to that part of the scouting report. 6'5 220lb. Yea, that is not Matsuzaka walking through that door.

#62 Pearl Wilson


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Posted 15 February 2012 - 08:12 PM

Morosi has an article up about the highest paid players and there was this little bit about Darvish.

Money invites scrutiny. Perhaps because of that, Darvish passed on a number of perks that Daisuke Matsuzaka, who signed a similar contract through the posting process, has in his deal with the Boston Red Sox.

“He asked us, 'Do other guys get their house and car paid for during spring training? Does everyone have their own PR guy?'” Daniels says. “When we told him no, he said, 'Then I don't want that.' I've got to imagine that means something to his teammates. I know it means something to me. He wants to be one of the guys.”



#63 pokey_reese

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Posted 07 March 2012 - 03:38 PM

Just one 2-inning sample, but Darvish looked wicked nasty today.

edit: For those who couldn't watch at their desks, he was throwing 92-94 with movement, locating really well, and even his off-speed stuff was around the edges of the zone mostly. Generated a lot of swinging strikes for just two innings, ST or not.

Edited by pokey_reese, 07 March 2012 - 03:42 PM.


#64 absintheofmalaise


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Posted 07 March 2012 - 09:39 PM

He's outing is over at Brooks Baseball. It's pretty nice looking on there. He got great reports from people watching him in person.

#65 Freddy Linn


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Posted 07 March 2012 - 10:25 PM

According to the Washington Post, ESPN, and Torrealba, he threw all seven pitches (fastball, cutter, splitter, slider, sinker, changeup, curveball) out of the stretch with good command.

#66 ehaz

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Posted 08 March 2012 - 07:08 AM

"He fits in well," Young said. "He's a funny guy. He's trying to learn some Spanish. He makes an effort to talk to all the guys. He bounces around from guy to guy to try and get to know everybody. We expect that to continue as the season goes on. It's pretty easy to fit into our clubhouse -- just a really good group of guys."