65 replies to this topic

[soxhop411]

JeffPassan Jeff Passan The Texas Rangers have won the posting auction of Japanese right-hander Yu Darvish with a record $51.7M bid, sources tell Yahoo! Sports.

[RedOctober3829]

From: @JeffPassan


The Texas Rangers have won the posting auction of Japanese right-hander Yu Darvish with a record $51.7M bid, sources tell Yahoo! Sports.
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/J...977539929473024

[Tokyo Sox]

From: @JeffPassan


The Texas Rangers have won the posting auction of Japanese right-hander Yu Darvish with a record $51.7M bid, sources tell Yahoo! Sports.
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/J...977539929473024

Don Nomura's twitter confirms Texas

[StuckOnYouk]

If Darvish ends up no better than a 3 or 4 we will never see japanese pitchers get big contracts ever again. I thought those days were over after Dice K's tenure but having Darvish and Dice K go well below expectations would pretty much kill big japanese contracts.

[BucketOBalls]

I'm disappointed, I was looking forward to a Jays revival (I know they still have a bright future, but I wanted to see them bang out that ballpark this year.)

Been a good offseason for the AL West so far.

[StuckOnYouk]

When does word leak out what the Yanks and others bid?

[rembrat]

Been a good offseason for the AL West so far.

And it's likely that the M's sign Fielder.

[Saby]

Can't understand why you don't spend 30-40M less on Wilson, a proven MLB commodity.

[SeanBerry]

I am with you Saby.

Not just a proven MLB pitcher but a proven one for your team and your stadium.

[rembrat]

Can't understand why you don't spend 30-40M less on Wilson, a proven MLB commodity.

Darvish is 25 and was scouted heavily by the Rangers this past season. They had a scout at every one of his starts so he must have really impressed. Also it has to help that Nolan has this "shut up and just throw" mentality with his pitchers. They arent concerned with past workload.

[Apisith]

You're getting Darvish's prime years. With Wilson, the last couple of years on his deal may be a blackhole. Darvish will be in his early 30s if the Rangers lock him up for 5-7 years. I can see why they would go for Darvish if they think he's as good as Wilson. If they think he's better, then it's a no-brainer.

[walkoffblast]

You're getting Darvish's prime years. With Wilson, the last couple of years on his deal may be a blackhole. Darvish will be in his early 30s if the Rangers lock him up for 5-7 years. I can see why they would go for Darvish if they think he's as good as Wilson. If they think he's better, then it's a no-brainer.

Why are we judging by the back years of the deal? The Rangers have a team that is ready to win now. A 35 year old pitcher isn't guaranteed to be worthless anyway. Every year of Darvish's deal could be a "black hole." Darvish costs 51.7+ mil up front, CJ Wilson only costs .5 mil up front. To make this deal you have to be convinced that Darvish is better. That seems crazy risky to me.

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

This is stupid, but I almost pissed myself laughing...

@BattingStanceG
Oh man. Orioles placed $1 dollar bid hoping all other teams overbid. #ShowcaseShowdown

[SemperFidelisSox]

Texas and Anaheim are waving their dicks and billion dollar tv deals around in front of NY and Boston this winter.

[Sprowl]

This is stupid, but I almost pissed myself laughing...

@BattingStanceG
Oh man. Orioles placed $1 dollar bid hoping all other teams overbid. #ShowcaseShowdown

I can't decide whether that's more Clouseau or Poirot.

[Rasputin]

So we have Anaheim, Texas, Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay to fight for two division titles and two wild card spots.

The AL Central is so screwed.

[soxhop411]

So we have Anaheim, Texas, Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay to fight for two division titles and two wild card spots.

The AL Central is so screwed.

i can't believe I'm saying this, but thank god for the second WC......

[EvilEmpire]

Texas and Anaheim are waving their dicks and billion dollar tv deals around in front of NY and Boston this winter.

Yeah. On the plus side, they'll enjoy the flip side of all that largess in a few years just like us too.

[SMU_Sox]

I love this move. I was just telling a friend down here I was shocked there weren't more Darvish and Rangers rumors as I thought they would pull it off. I can't wait to see Darvish pitch. And yes, I am assuming he's going to sign. I'm excited for the Rangers. Daniels is turning into a good GM after a somewhat rocky start.

[DrewDawg]

Colin Cowherd (I know, I know) was discussing this in is typical condescending way and referenced Matsuzaka.  Then he said that 2 weeks ago Francona told him in the hallway that they knew a day after Matsuzaka arrived that it was never about getting a top flight pitcher, but only about marketing.

He then went on to say that ZIPS only shows him winning 13 games next year and he doesn't even know what ZIPS is because he's barely figured out slugging but Texas is paying way too much for this guy and pitching isn't that important because the Phillies had the greatest staff last year and couldn't even make the NLCS.

Then he segued into some HOF thing saying he hates the baseball HOF because Steve Garvey can't get in but Craig Biggio is going to sail in and all he did well was get hit by pitches.

Edited by DrewDawg, 20 December 2011 - 01:29 PM.

[DukeSox]

Then he said that 2 weeks ago Francona told him in the hallway that they knew a day after Matsuzaka arrived that it was never about getting a top flight pitcher, but only about marketing.

This is so so so unlikely for so many reasons.

[Doctor G]

Can't understand why you don't spend 30-40M less on Wilson, a proven MLB commodity.

Wilson was commenting during the playoffs about the effect of approaching 250 innings on the season. No one knew the condition of his arm at the end of the season better than Texas.
I have a feeling the Angels might regret their second big money signing of this off season.

[cannonball 1729]

Do we have any idea of whether Darvish is actually willing to sign or if he instead wants to try to be the Curt Flood of the posting system? There had been rumblings in one of the previous Darvish threads that he wanted to stand against a system that was giving $53 million to a team instead of him.

[DrewDawg]

This is so so so unlikely for so many reasons.

That very well may be, but can you tell us why?

[walkoffblast]

Do we have any idea of whether Darvish is actually willing to sign or if he instead wants to try to be the Curt Flood of the posting system? There had been rumblings in one of the previous Darvish threads that he wanted to stand against a system that was giving $53 million to a team instead of him.

He will sign for no more than 6 years 54 mil. He can rumble all he wants but it isn't going to change anything. 5 yr 75 mil would mean that he just cost the Rangers more than Sabathia cost the Yankees.

[soxhop411]

The Blue Jays bid over $50MM for Yu Darvish, falling just short of the Rangers' $51.7MM bid, according to Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star. Here's the latest on the Blue Jays’ division, starting with a right-hander who spent three up-and-down seasons in Toronto...

[Guero]

He will sign for no more than 6 years 54 mil. He can rumble all he wants but it isn't going to change anything. 5 yr 75 mil would mean that he just cost the Rangers more than Sabathia cost the Yankees.

He may not get 5/75, but I don't think there is anyways he signs for less than 10 million per. I'd look for more along a 5/60 deal, unless he's foolish. He could go back to Japan and earn roughly 12 for the next two, then come back totally FA and make a ton more than the figure you suggest.

[walkoffblast]

Sure that could happen but there are no guarantees for pitchers and he already leaves over 6 mil plus marketing opportunities on the table just to wait for that chance. That deal is fine for him and it very quickly goes from a gamble to simply not worth it for Texas. It isn't a fair process but he doesn't have the leverage to change it.

[maufman]

By all accounts, the posting was Darvish's idea, and Nippon Ham was happy to have him stay in Japan and pitch for them. Therefore, if Darvish decides to go back to Japan, he doesn't have to worry about a vengeful club burning out his arm, burying him in the minors, or whatever.

In theory, therefore, Darvish has more leverage than Dice-K did. Whether that leads in practice to a richer contract remains to be seen.

[Tokyo Sox]

He will sign for no more than 6 years 54 mil. He can rumble all he wants but it isn't going to change anything. 5 yr 75 mil would mean that he just cost the Rangers more than Sabathia cost the Yankees.

Sure that could happen but there are no guarantees for pitchers and he already leaves over 6 mil plus marketing opportunities on the table just to wait for that chance. That deal is fine for him and it very quickly goes from a gamble to simply not worth it for Texas. It isn't a fair process but he doesn't have the leverage to change it.

On what are you basing any of this? Why are you so sure that any "rumbling" he makes won't change anything? Just because he is not Sabathia doesn't mean Texas won't pay him that. And why should he settle for a deal that is "fine" for him?

Mauf is correct that he has a lot more leverage than you are assuming. If he fails to reach an agreement with Texas, he is probably not going back to 6mil/per in Japan. Nippon Ham had reportedly been ready pre-posting to double his current salary to almost 13mil if he had chosen to stay rather than post. Of course, there is a difference between choosing to stay and posting but not agreeing, but don't assume 6mil per for the next two years.

I have to agree with Guero, there is no way he signs for less than 10 a year with Texas. If he really does want to try to take a stand, maybe it will be on # of years rather than money, and you see something like 4/40. If Texas insists on a longer deal, he is going to get paid for it. 6/80 or thereabouts.

[MikeM]

The Blue Jays bid over $50MM for Yu Darvish, falling just short of the Rangers' $51.7MM bid, according to Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star. Here's the latest on the Blue Jays' division, starting with a right-hander who spent three up-and-down seasons in Toronto...

Which i'm guessing generated a collective "bullshit" response out every Jays fan in existence, who by now are probably finding the ongoing "we'll spend big when the time is right!!!" talk rather tiring.

[walkoffblast]

On what are you basing any of this? Why are you so sure that any "rumbling" he makes won't change anything? Just because he is not Sabathia doesn't mean Texas won't pay him that. And why should he settle for a deal that is "fine" for him?

I am basing this on the history of the posting process. It might not explicitly mean they won't but it fairly easily highlights why it would not be in their best interest to. He should settle because he isn't a free agent. The process isn't fair but so aren't a lot of things in how baseball contracts are determined. He can rumble about it all he wants but that doesn't make the process that has already been in motion any different.

is correct that he has a lot more leverage than you are assuming. If he fails to reach an agreement with Texas, he is probably not going back to 6mil/per in Japan. Nippon Ham had reportedly been ready pre-posting to double his current salary to almost 13mil if he had chosen to stay rather than post. Of course, there is a difference between choosing to stay and posting but not agreeing, but don't assume 6mil per for the next two years.

Fair enough, I can buy into him getting more than that but I really doubt that number. What he can theoretically make is only a factor if Texas wants him at any cost though. Texas isn't exactly hurting for pitching and they lose nothing by sending him back to Japan. What he can make in Japan isn't leverage but it might be a reason he chooses to stay. IMO he already made up his mind not to wait two years when the posting happened so he isn't staying. The guaranteed money won't be turned down.

[maufman]

I'll split the difference and say Darvish signs for 6/65 or thereabouts.

Because Darvish, unlike Dice-K, has a viable fall-back option in Japan, he'll approach this deal much like a U.S. player two years away from free agency evaluates a long-term contract proposal -- he'll guesstimate how much he'd be worth as a free agent, calculate how much of a discount he's taking to get guaranteed money two years early, and then decide if the discount is worth the security.

Let's assume Darvish would make $20mm in Japan. over the next two years. (Obviously, the second year would be non-guaranteed.) If he pitches anywhere close to as well over the next two seasons as he has to date, he'd easily command 5/80 (C.J. Wilson money, basically) as a free-agent entering his age 28 season. That's 7/100.

How much of that $100mm would Darvish deal back to get his money guaranteed, and two years early?

Well, he's not going to get $80mm. That's what King Felix and Verlander got (albeit for 5 years instead of 6) when they signed two years early. They were obviously more valuable than Darvish.

Tom Tango did a salary forecaster a few years ago that assumed U.S. players took a 25% haircut for each year early they took their money. That would put Darvish's expected contract in the range walkoffblast is forecasting, but I think that's a flawed assumption here for a few reasons. First, Tango's calculator is based on what the player would earn as a free agent right now -- Darvish would get a good deal more than $100mm for a 7-year deal if he were a free-agent right now (though he might end up taking 5/90 and hitting the market again after his age 30 season). Second, I think there's some premium involved in getting a Japanese player to locate to Dallas -- U.S. players like the warm winters and low taxes, but I imagine there are several cities where Darvish would rather play. Third, because Darvish is so young, his expected value will decline less than usual in the next two years, barring injury. (Not that we're ignoring the very real possibility of serious injury -- that's the main factor driving the steep discount you get when you sign early.)

So yeah, somewhere between $50mm and $80mm. I picked the middle of that range pretty unscientifically.

[JakeRae]

What about the possibility of a shorter term contract? If Darvish wants 6/80 or so, that isn't likely to happen. But, a 3/33 deal could set him up to earn that much in his first 6 years if he proves he deserves it. Texas gets to shed some of the risk of ending up with an albatross contract for a situation where they might end up owing more on the backend. Due to service time rules, they would not be sacrificing any of their years of team control, just a bit of cost suppression. 3/33 might be on the high end, but 3/30 or 3/27 could end up being a more palatable option for both sides than 6/70.


Another outside the box option is that Texas gives Darvish 6/70 or 6/80 but negotiates team option years at $15 million per for years 7 and 8.

This doesn't have to be a straight 6 year contract that covers the years Texas controls Darvish's rights exactly. The shorter option mitigates Texas' risk exposure while still offering Darvish the opportunity to kickstart his service clock and earn his MLB money once he gets here. The longer option gives him big money up front but that comes with the potential for Texas to land significant savings on the back end in a perfect world scenario. Neither scenario is an actual attempt to define a reasonable contract for Darvish. I have no clue how to properly value him so the dollar figures I am citing could be way off. I am just trying to show that there are other solutions outside of playing hardball with Texas offering 6/50 and Darvish asking for 6/90 (or whatever).

[Resonance Wright]

6@$9.2M AAV and a few notable and expensive perks.

[maufman]

Darvish won't entrust his future earnings to an arbitrator. After paying upwards of $50mm for Darvish's rights, the Rangers probably won't agree to shorten the duration of club control (as the MFY did with Matsui). Therefore, a 6-year deal is likely.

[JakeRae]

Darvish won't entrust his future earnings to an arbitrator. After paying upwards of $50mm for Darvish's rights, the Rangers probably won't agree to shorten the duration of club control (as the MFY did with Matsui). Therefore, a 6-year deal is likely.

First, there is zero chance of Texas agreeing to the Matsui scenario. That was never part of the scenario I was outlining. The posting fee is pretty hard to justify over any time frame lower than 6 years.

But, why is it unbelievable that Darvish would be willing to accept a shorter initial contract? MLB players have chosen to go the year to year route rather than take reduced value in a longer guaranteed deal. Darvish will be in a stronger financial position than almost anyone who has made that decision in the past to accept the risk of a career ending injury.

[jon abbey]

Heyman says he wants 5/65 at a minimum:

https://twitter.com/#!/JonHeymanCBS/status/153271399501406208

[rembrat]

Deadline is today. Everyone expects a deal.

[Wingack]

So if Darvish signs today do we assume Fielder lands with the Nats.

[rembrat]

Not sure. The Rangers could decide to get Fielder and let Hamilton walk next year.

But if not them then the Nationals or Mystery Team.

[zapo]

The Rangers have agreed to sign Yu Darvish, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. The sides are wrapping up a deal with 25 minutes remaining before today's 4pm CDT deadline. Agents Don Nomura and Arn Tellem represent the 6'5" 25-year-old.

From mlbtraderumors.com. No terms yet.

[BucketOBalls]

6 years, 60 million

So...essentially, every really good Japanese player is gonna get the Dice-K deal.

[Brickowski]

IMHO the Rangers and Nolan Ryan did very, very well to keep the number that low. Darvish is two years younger than Matsuzaka was in 2007. Darvish is also bigger, stronger and throws harder.

[Royal Reader]

Sure - but Matsuzaka's own performance, fairly or not, has cast questions on the wisdom of this kind of acquisition. Dice-K had 'all world' hype, too.

[steveluck7]

Sure - but Matsuzaka's own performance, fairly or not, has cast questions on the wisdom of this kind of acquisition. Dice-K had 'all world' hype, too.

and the next guy will be "bigger and throw harder than Darvish." I've given up on thinking that clubs will stop buying into the hype surounding these international talents.

[Sprowl]

and the next guy will be "bigger and throw harder than Darvish." I've given up on thinking that clubs will stop buying into the hype surounding these international talents.

Hype by definition is exaggeration. Darvish's height and velocity are not exaggerated. They have been measured objectively.

[Soxbrained]

Hype by definition is exaggeration. Darvish's height and velocity are not exaggerated. They have been measured objectively.

Yeah sure. And Dice-K had 8 different pitches, which had similarly been measured objectively. I'll believe it when I see it.

[Sprowl]

Yeah sure. And Dice-K had 8 different pitches, which had similarly been measured objectively. I'll believe it when I see it.

How do you measure the difference between a splitter and a changeup? It can be done, though not very well, with PitchFX, but there are no PitchFX data from the Japanese leagues.

I hope you have something more substantive to bring to this discussion than "yeah sure." If not, then STFU.

[genivive]

Sprowl you yourself just nailed it. There is some data (velocity), scouting reports and a lot of hype. We heard all this about Dice K how he was a surefire front line starter. Heck wasn't Tazawa originally reported to have a 94-95 mph fastball? Time will tell.