Edited by dolomite133, 09 December 2011 - 12:53 AM.
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Wicks & Rowe: The place to discuss far fetched rebuilding ideas.
#1
Posted 08 December 2011 - 11:59 PM
#2
Posted 09 December 2011 - 12:34 AM
As a Celtics fan, my first and foremost concern is making this team a contender into the future. That means planning for life after the big three (hopefully without an extended, i.e. decade long, rebuilding process). So feel free to throw shit at the wall and making suggestions for how this team can remain a contender past this season. Since this topic infuriates some on this board, I've made it a separate topic.
If the Celtics aren't looking too good by the trade deadline, I'd ask the Clippers (assuming they are doing well) if they want some combo of Ray, Garnett, Pierce for that uprotected Minnesotta #1 pick. The Clipper seem to want to find a player or two to make Blake happy, but they could very easily get shut out on CP3, Dwight, and Deron Williams.
Garnett and Pierce for Kaman, Mo Williams, Gomes, and the Minnesotta pick. It would work well for the cheap Clippers going forward.
You start over with Rondo, that high lotto pick, and the rest of your picks. Do the best you can.
You trade Rondo when/if the right deal comes along in the meantime.
Edited by Mike in CT, 09 December 2011 - 12:51 AM.
#3
Posted 09 December 2011 - 08:53 AM
#4
Posted 16 December 2011 - 02:39 PM
Since we are going to miss out on the major free agent prizes next summer then maybe the draft is our best option to land a franchise player.
#5
Posted 16 December 2011 - 02:48 PM
#6
Posted 16 December 2011 - 03:01 PM
The Celtics are going to be in the playoff picture at the trade deadline. There's no way they trade KG and/or Ray + a playoff appearance for a couple of lotto tickets.
QFT. They are going to win the friggin division barring significant injuries. Why would anyone want to punt now?
Yeah the chances of winning the title aren't very good but they aren't a .500 team either which is the point where you would start to think about selling off assets.
#7
Posted 16 December 2011 - 03:06 PM
I think the best possible trade we could make is like KG to Orlando for Turkoglu, Duhon, Randerson, Orton, and a 1st rounder. No thank you.
Edited by mahky bellhorn, 16 December 2011 - 03:07 PM.
#8
Posted 16 December 2011 - 03:16 PM
#9
Posted 16 December 2011 - 03:20 PM
Yeah the chances of winning the title aren't very good but they aren't a .500 team either which is the point where you would start to think about selling off assets.
Trading still useful players early is about speeding up the rebuilding process.
Do you really think Wyc, Danny "I would have traded Bird and McHale when they were still a playoff relevant team", and Doc want to go through another prolonged rebuilding period?
This team is very close to being Rondo and a fast declining Pierce.
We can go for cap space next year but unless Deron or Dwight is signing with us, there is nobody unrestricted worth pursuing. Maybe not even for the next 2 years based on the awful list of options I've seen. By the time you find a 2nd star, Rondo's contract is nearing its end.
So you can keep the band together and just string it out to mediocrity, but you are basically assuring yourself of some lean lean years. You can't trade for stars when the only asset you have is Rondo and the Clipper pick. You can't sign elite free agents when there are none coming available (and will they even want to sign here?).
#10
Posted 16 December 2011 - 03:21 PM
Edited by Brickowski, 16 December 2011 - 03:22 PM.
#11
Posted 16 December 2011 - 04:06 PM
The original post asked for "farfetched" ideas for rebuilding after the end of this season, not before.
The rules have changed.
As for 1998-1999, G&MB is almost right. The two best regular season records belonged to older teams (Spurs and Jazz). The third best team was the very young Trailblazers.
However the two teams in the finals that season were the Spurs (yeah, they were old, but they were led by a 22-year-old Tim Duncan) and the Knicks (who were mostly young except for 36-year-old Patrick Ewing). The Celtics have neither a young future all-star center nor a rotation of a half-dozen young, talented players surrounding an aging Kevin Garnett. Our best comp that season might be the Jazz, who lost to an extremely young and talented Blazers team in the conference semifinals.
Another factor to consider. The 1998-1999 post-lockout season started a month later and was 16 games shorter than the upcoming season. I'm betting that extra month will hurt older teams even more.
Edited by dolomite133, 16 December 2011 - 04:08 PM.
#12
Posted 16 December 2011 - 05:53 PM
Basically, I think the radical rebuild is unlikely to happen. However, if Danny did want to do it, the best way to go would be to amnesty Pierce and start taking on decent players with terrible contracts (think Elton Brand, Carlos Boozer, maybe Joe Johnson, or Nene in a year) along with acquiring a future first rounder in each trade. You could add a total of 3-5 draft picks over the next few years, while keeping the talent level on the court good enough to sell tickets, but bad enough to still be in the lottery. Lose, without looking like you're trying to lose. That would be my advice, because fans in Boston are fickle and do not want to deal with a full on rebuild...
#13
Posted 17 December 2011 - 02:18 PM
If things are bad say at the 40 game mark, I'd be very open to some kind of sell off.
#14
Posted 20 December 2011 - 10:58 AM
Michael Beasley.
Loved the offensive explosion last year. Kid played in Fitchburg for a season during high school and, when properly motivated, can takeover a game.
How do we make it happen? I don't know - but if we're looking for that post Big Three fixture to pair with Rondo, an aging Pierce, and a young core this is the guy I would want on my team. Still only 22 but has big league experience, seasoning, and if you put him under the right conditions this will continue to be a playoff team - granted there are other gaps they'll have to fill...plus Minny has a logjam at SF and PF so maybe there's room to make it happen.
And by the way: Doc knows he can play.
"Offensively, I've been a big believer in him," Rivers said before his Celtics beat the Timberwolves 96-93 on Monday night. "I just think he can score. I said it two years ago: I think one day he may lead the league in scoring. He just knows how to score the ball. He has a Carmelo ability to score the ball."
"He's a matchup problem every night," Rivers said. "He's tough for 3s [small forwards] to guard because of his size. He's too quick for 4s [power forwards]. And he can shoot. Obviously that's the key. He has quickness and a shot at that size. That makes him tough to guard."
Edited by Reardons Beard, 20 December 2011 - 10:59 AM.
#15
Posted 20 December 2011 - 01:51 PM
#16
Posted 20 December 2011 - 05:02 PM
The guy I want on that roster is Rubio. Sure, 90% of the world is predicting that Rubio will flop in the NBA, but I'm in the other 10%.
Edited by Brickowski, 20 December 2011 - 05:03 PM.
#17
Posted 20 December 2011 - 08:02 PM
Rubio's overhyped, Rondo's like his absolute ceiling so I don't understand the point of that trade for either team?
edit- it actually makes a lot of sense for the Wolves since they would be raping Boston pretty hard.
Edited by mahky bellhorn, 20 December 2011 - 08:06 PM.
#18
Posted 20 December 2011 - 08:55 PM
Rubio's overhyped, Rondo's like his absolute ceiling...
That is certainly the majority view. Time will tell.
#19
Posted 20 December 2011 - 09:19 PM
Rebuilding means finding the elite talents to build around. They come in the draft, or by acquiring somebody else's problem. Who are the talented head cases whose maturation is in doubt, but still possible and worth gambling on? Michael Beasley is certainly high on the list. Rubio is another probable failure with a high ceiling.
Jeff Green's diagnosis means a significantly higher probability that the blow-it-up scenario takes place by the trading deadline. I'd put the odds at 20%.
#20
Posted 20 December 2011 - 10:50 PM
#21
Posted 20 December 2011 - 10:55 PM
If Danny is going to blow up the team, he better get somebody better than Michael fucking Beasley.
thisthisthis
#22
Posted 21 December 2011 - 12:21 AM
#23
Posted 21 December 2011 - 08:37 AM
#24
Posted 21 December 2011 - 09:05 AM
I do agree that if a deadline deal is to be had this year, it's Allen that will be the one to go. His skills are the easiest to slot into a contender wannabe. But that only happens if Ainge truly feels that the team is no better than first round playoff fodder. A lot of folks felt the 2009-10 team was going to exit the playoffs in the 2nd round, and they ended up being 13 minutes from winning the trophy.
#25
Posted 21 December 2011 - 09:48 AM
#26
Posted 21 December 2011 - 11:32 AM
The only trophy the 2012 Celtics will be 13 minutes from winning is Miss Congeniality.
I'm not buying this assessment-- yet. And playoff seeding is not terribly relevant for this team, so long as it makes the playoffs. The key factor will be the team's health. If the vets are hobbling as the March 15 trade deadline approaches, we could see a major dismantling.
#27
Posted 21 December 2011 - 11:50 AM
#28
Posted 21 December 2011 - 12:09 PM
I'm not buying this assessment-- yet. And playoff seeding is not terribly relevant for this team, so long as it makes the playoffs. The key factor will be the team's health. If the vets are hobbling as the March 15 trade deadline approaches, we could see a major dismantling.
If the vets are hobbling, who is going to trade for them?
#29
Posted 21 December 2011 - 12:19 PM
1.) Improve the team, building around the current nucleus of the Big 3 + Rondo (or other star acquired for Rondo). Ainge tried that multiple times (Chris Paul, David West), and really should get kudos here for giving it his best shot. Unfortunately, the market was thin, the C's were strapped, and this option is now pretty much closed.
2.) Stay with the core, build the bench, and hope for help the trading deadline. This is the current course.
3.) Blow the whole the up. The problem is that right now the trade market would pretty much guarantee that Ainge would get back pennies on the peso, even for marketable guys like Rondo. There's a chance this could change at the deadline. The market for a Ray Allen or even a Paul Pierce could be much better on March 15th than today. If anything, it's unlikely to be worse, barring injury. Swapping Rondo for Michael Beasley solves nothing, so that ain't happening.
4.) Blow up part of the team, breaking up the core at the trading deadline, with an eye to going into the offseason with salary cap dollars to spend. Again, perhaps they can get someone in March that allows them to make the big splash next summer. It's difficult, but not as impossible as some here are making it to be.
#30
Posted 21 December 2011 - 12:25 PM
If the vets are hobbling, who is going to trade for them?
Teams looking to get out from expensive long term contracts in exchange for expiring contracts. You'd be loking at players like Biedrins, Tyrus Thomas, Okafor, Milicic, maybe David Lee if you're lucky.
#31
Posted 21 December 2011 - 12:43 PM
4.) Blow up part of the team, breaking up the core at the trading deadline, with an eye to going into the offseason with salary cap dollars to spend. Again, perhaps they can get someone in March that allows them to make the big splash next summer. It's difficult, but not as impossible as some here are making it to be.
At the moment it looks like there will be no free agent market this summer (because the smart money's on Howard to Brookjersey which takes the only two names of note off the market), so the odds are that there's no option of rebuilding that way. At present Boston has two mid to low first round picks coming, so there's no rebuilding path there, either. The guys they draft in 2012 are highly unlikely to be cornerstone players.
That means that they either just string together another team for 2013 and roll over their cap space again for the ensuing summer free agent market or make a real move at the 2012 trade deadline. Those are literally their only choices at the moment. The Rondo/Pierce/roleplayer Celtics are no better than a one & done seven seed (and that's their ceiling). So Ainge has some very hard choices to make. Dealing Rondo for supporting cast players at the trade deadline and accepting the results (i.e. missing the playoffs and a pick in the 10-14 range) might be his best option at the moment, because it opens up cap space to take back contracts that other teams are looking to shed and gives them the opportunity to make deals like the Baron Davis trade that Cleveland made last season.
Edited by nighthob, 21 December 2011 - 12:45 PM.
#32
Posted 21 December 2011 - 02:12 PM
If the vets are hobbling, who is going to trade for them?
I agree with this one hundred percent. I think a decision to do this has to be made fairly quickly by what you have seen in practice and through the first 10 or so games. If you see a plodding and slow team...do it fast!
#33
Posted 21 December 2011 - 02:30 PM
Beasley would be a complementary scorer on this team, but you'd want a bonafide star to pair with him and Rondo.
#34
Posted 21 December 2011 - 02:31 PM
#35
Posted 21 December 2011 - 03:04 PM
Teams looking to get out from expensive long term contracts in exchange for expiring contracts. You'd be loking at players like Biedrins, Tyrus Thomas, Okafor, Milicic, maybe David Lee if you're lucky.
But why would we want those expensive long term contracts if we're blowing things up? A mid-to-late first rounder is not worth the lack of financial flexibility. Essentially, I see Ainge staying the course because if our guys are healthy, we'll be pretty good. If they're not, we won't be able to get much of anything for them.
#36
Posted 21 December 2011 - 03:12 PM
But why would we want those expensive long term contracts if we're blowing things up? A mid-to-late first rounder is not worth the lack of financial flexibility. Essentially, I see Ainge staying the course because if our guys are healthy, we'll be pretty good. If they're not, we won't be able to get much of anything for them.
To maintain our current spending levels in preparation for a future trade, to a team looking to an expiring contract. It's kicking the can down the road.
#37
Posted 21 December 2011 - 03:12 PM
#38
Posted 21 December 2011 - 03:17 PM
#39
Posted 21 December 2011 - 03:44 PM
IMHO Golden State will be looking to shed salary, especailly now after this latest sexual harrassment thing involving Monta Ellis. And while the UFA pickings will be slim this June, there are some interesting RFAs including some very solid players like George Hill and Roy Hibbert, plus guys with "upside" such the aforementionned Beasley, Marreese Speights and JaVale McGee.
I predict Hibbert gets overpaid for the next five years.
#40
Posted 21 December 2011 - 04:11 PM
Why the hell would we trade an expiring Ray Allen or Kevin Garnett for shitty players with shitty contracts? That makes no sense. If the goal is to blow the team up, you dont saddle yourself with 27 million for 3 years for BiedrinsTeams looking to get out from expensive long term contracts in exchange for expiring contracts. You'd be loking at players like Biedrins, Tyrus Thomas, Okafor, Milicic, maybe David Lee if you're lucky.
#41
Posted 21 December 2011 - 04:40 PM
IMHO, rebuilding isn't finding some magic bullet.--let's assume that the Celtics aren't going to get Dwight Howard or Kevin Love. Rebuilding is a process. First, you have to draft well, and with a few exceptions (e.g. Marcus Banks) Ainge has been pretty good at that. Even in horrible horrible draft years like 2000, there are future all-stars taken after pick 20 (in 2000 it was Michael Redd). Second, you have to find young players who have been underperforming on their current teams-- Beasley is an obvious example and so is Speights--but who might thrive in a different environment with different coaches. Third, you have to look at players who will function well as a group and mesh with the guys you already have (e.g. Rondo) as opposed to being a random collection of players, like the Bobcats.
For my money the 1# rebuilding player who will be available next summer is Greg Oden, who will be unrestricted. Very high risk, but potentially a high reward.
Edited by Brickowski, 21 December 2011 - 05:22 PM.
#42
Posted 21 December 2011 - 05:08 PM
David Lee isn't a shitty player. I'd love to see him in Boston.
IMHO, rebuilding isn't finding some magic bullet.--let's assume that the Celtics aren't going to get Dwight Howard or Kevin Love. Rebuilding is a process. First, you have to draft well, and with a few exceptions (e.g. Marcus Banks) Ainge has been pretty good at that. Even in horrible horrible draft years like 2000, there are future all-stars taken after pick 20 (in 2000 it was Michael Redd). Second, you have to find young players who have been underperforming on their current teams-- Beasley is an obvious example and so is Speights--but who might thrive in a different environment with different coaches. Third, you have to look at players who will function well as a group and mesh with the guys you already have (e.g. Rondo) as opposed to being a random collection of playders, like the Bobcats.
For my money the 1# rebuilding player who will be available next summer is Greg Oden, who will be unrestricted. Very high risk, but potentially a high reward.
I was with you up until you mentioned Oden. There is zero evidence he will ever be healthy. Given his health problems I'll be pleasantly surprised if he ever develops into a backup player. I agree he's high risk/high reward but he's not someone I'd hitch my hopes to. I consider him a gamble to HELP my team, not MAKE my team.
#43
Posted 21 December 2011 - 05:10 PM
Why the hell would we trade an expiring Ray Allen or Kevin Garnett for shitty players with shitty contracts? That makes no sense. If the goal is to blow the team up, you dont saddle yourself with 27 million for 3 years for Biedrins
It's not the sexiest option. But it fits in with a rebuilding strategy I mentioned above.
To maintain our current spending levels in preparation for a future trade, to a team looking to an expiring contract. It's kicking the can down the road.
#44
Posted 21 December 2011 - 05:13 PM
Ultimately, I want the Celtics to squeeze a little more out of this group or just blow it up completely. You can't tippy toe around the "blowing it up" strategy. Either you keep the entire Big 3...or you trade them all. Or at least KG/Ray if you want to keep Pierce for legacy/PR purposes.
#45
Posted 21 December 2011 - 05:20 PM
#46
Posted 21 December 2011 - 05:26 PM
No thoughts on Evan Turner?
Complementary player. Too skinny at the moment.
I'm old fashionned. You need to start rebuilding with players 6-9 or better who can score the ball and rebound. Wing players are a dime a dozen unless you have the next MJ-- which Turner isn't.
#47
Posted 21 December 2011 - 05:28 PM
David Lee is a complementary piece on a team with championship aspirations.
So is the 36 year-old Ray Allen. Which player would you rather have next year? The problem with Lee is that you have to commit to paying him for the next 4-5 years.But if you aren't willing to pay Lee, you have to pay someone else. So choose your poison.
Alas, capspace never made a basket or snagged a rebound. If you want to win, capspace has to be turned into real live players.
Edited by Brickowski, 21 December 2011 - 05:30 PM.
#48
Posted 21 December 2011 - 06:15 PM
So is the 36 year-old Ray Allen. Which player would you rather have next year? The problem with Lee is that you have to commit to paying him for the next 4-5 years.But if you aren't willing to pay Lee, you have to pay someone else. So choose your poison.
Alas, capspace never made a basket or snagged a rebound. If you want to win, capspace has to be turned into real live players.
I either want the Celtics to add pieces around the Big 3 (David West would have been perfect) or lose every game by like 50. Adding pretty good players on bad contracts is going to keep you mediocre indefinitely. The only reason why the Celtics were able to get out of the death spiral was because Jefferson turned out to be a steal and we bottomed out in the 2006-2007 season enough to use that pick to get Ray Allen, which helped us get KG. But that was the perfect storm of situational luck. The same year that KG/Allen were in limbo, we just so happened to have a top 5 pick and a young up-and-coming frontcourt player. We won't be so fortunate next time.
#49
Posted 21 December 2011 - 06:31 PM
If you want to blow it up completely and have a truly crappy team in hopes of getting a cornerstone in the draft, well, the Celtics tried that twice and failed both times (in 1996 and again in 2007). Besides, there is no true conerstone in the 2012 draft, unless it's the 18 y\ear-old Andre Drummond. I'd rather gamble on Oden.
Edited by Brickowski, 21 December 2011 - 06:32 PM.
#50
Posted 21 December 2011 - 07:08 PM
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