131 replies to this topic

[Darnell's Son]

Link from ESPN Boston

[saintnick912]

Will Cherington break Theo's run of not actually going to arbitration with players? I don't think this guarantees a 1 year deal at all.

[Dogman2]

That works for me as it is one less worry and the team can move forward with bullpen construction and a starter.

[RedOctober3829]

Ortiz will accept arbitration. So he remains a red sox.

https://twitter.com/#!/Jon_Heyman/status/144510938500960257

[scotian1]

There has been no confirmation that Ortiz has accepted this.

@bradfoRob Bradford
Source: Red Sox still waiting on David Ortiz decision http://www.weei.com/...-ortiz-decision

This was as of 4:45 pm EST.

[maufman]

If the ESPN report is accurate, I imagine the FO is unhappy. Offering 2/18 to a guy who stands to make $14-15mm in arbitration screams "we don't want you back."

If Papi had waited, I think he would have gotten 2/25 somewhere, so his decision to accept arbitration (again, assuming the report is accurate) surprises me. If I'm an AL GM, I would vastly prefer Papi at 2/25 to Prince Fielder at 6/120.

[The Long Tater]

a source told ESPNDeportesLosAngeles.com

Maybe it's true, but that seems a bit thin

[dynomite]

If Papi had waited, I think he would have gotten 2/25 somewhere, so his decision to accept arbitration (again, assuming the report is accurate) surprises me. If I'm an AL GM, I would vastly prefer Papi at 2/25 to Prince Fielder at 6/120.

Weren't there rumors that Baltimore was willing to go to 3 years?

[JakeRae]

If the ESPN report is accurate, I imagine the FO is unhappy. Offering 2/18 to a guy who stands to make $14-15mm in arbitration screams "we don't want you back."

If Papi had waited, I think he would have gotten 2/25 somewhere, so his decision to accept arbitration (again, assuming the report is accurate) surprises me. If I'm an AL GM, I would vastly prefer Papi at 2/25 to Prince Fielder at 6/120.

If you are starting a price negotiation where you know the other side has badly overestimated the price, you don't start negotiating from where you hope to end up. This isn't the Adrian Gonzalez negotiation, where it seemed that both sides had a pretty clear and mutual understanding of his value.

Ortiz came into the offseason hoping to land a deal no one was going to come close to offering him. Leaking a low initial offer creates room for compromise. The Red Sox probably feel a fair contract is somewhere between 2/20 and 2/25. Let's say it is 2/22. If they start negotiations at 2/22, and Ortiz is looking for 3/40, how does Ortiz justify signing at 2/22 to himself? Even if he ends up signing that deal, he'll feel like he got screwed over.

Now, if you start negotiations at 2/18, then Ortiz acknowledges the third year isn't happening and asks for like 2/28, then you work your toward the middle ground, Ortiz gets to walk away from the negotiation feeling like he pushed the Red Sox higher and they showed him some respect in the negotiation process.

As for your final point, I wouldn't overlook the possibility that Ortiz still ultimately signs for 2/22 to 2/25 with Boston. And, given that it sounds like Ortiz wants to stay in Boston, it may have been worth it to him to risk that he gets 1/15 or 2/22 to stay and remain a Boston sports icon rather than 2/25 to be just another mercenary vet on a bad team in Baltimore or Seattle.

[dynomite]

Now, if you start negotiations at 2/18, then Ortiz acknowledges the third year isn't happening and asks for like 2/28, then you work your toward the middle ground, Ortiz gets to walk away from the negotiation feeling like he pushed the Red Sox higher and they showed him some respect in the negotiation process.

As for your final point, I wouldn't overlook the possibility that Ortiz still ultimately signs for 2/22 to 2/25 with Boston. And, given that it sounds like Ortiz wants to stay in Boston, it may have been worth it to him to risk that he gets 1/15 or 2/22 to stay and remain a Boston sports icon rather than 2/25 to be just another mercenary vet on a bad team in Baltimore or Seattle.

I think this is good analysis. Indeed, the Baltimore offer was probably in the neighborhood of 2/25 (perhaps with a team option for a 3rd year) and, as you suggest, I would assume Ortiz's calculations assumed that, given the choice between:

1. Arbitration and a 1/15ish deal
2. New contract and a 2/22ish deal

the Sox would go with option #2. If he's right, he gets to stay in Boston for basically the same money.

For Papi, it makes sense for both his legacy and his bank account.
For the Red Sox, as others have noted it seems to trade stability in 2012 for a more difficult 2013: can they really carry both Ortiz and Youkilis?

Also, it should be noted that this is a good sign for Valentine: his first move as Manager -- flying down to the Dominican and convince Papi to accept arbitration -- has been resolved successfully: mission accomplished. Whether he was going to sign anyway or not, it certainly looks good.

[Savin Hillbilly]

And, given that it sounds like Ortiz wants to stay in Boston, it may have been worth it to him to risk that he gets 1/15 or 2/22 to stay and remain a Boston sports icon rather than 2/25 to be just another mercenary vet on a bad team in Baltimore or Seattle.

This makes sense. After all, even if his performance drops somewhat this year, there will likely be some team out there willing to take a flyer on him for $6 million or so in 2013, even if it isn't the Sox. So the worst case scenario, most likely, is something like 2/$20M. Might as well roll the dice and see if he can improve substantially on that rather than settling for only a little more and having to uproot himself into the bargain.

Of course, if he does a Wile E. Coyote and winds up in sub-2009 territory, then he's lost the gamble. But he can certainly be forgiven for dismissing that possibility.

Edited by Savin Hillbilly, 07 December 2011 - 05:51 PM.

[scotian1]

Scott Lauber's tweet as of 5:50pm EST

@ScottLauberScott Lauber
Ben Cherington has talked to David Ortiz' agent today, but hasn't heard anything definitive on Big Papi's intentions to accept arb

[SoxScout]

A baseball source with knowledge of the discussions said the Red Sox upped their previous offer of two years, $18 million "slightly" but the two-year deal still fell shy of the $20 million mark.

http://www.csnne.com...764&feedID=3352

[Montana Fan]

If he thinks he can remain healthy his greatest annual earnings are probably arb offerings. With career earnings just shy of $84 million, he's playing with house money anyhow. Smack hell out of the ball in 2012 for 14 million and see you next December.

[Rasputin]

Edes just tweeted that it's official.

[scotian1]

Thank goodness that is done, now Ben get on with adding some pitching.

[Rudy Pemberton]

While I'm happy to have Papi back, a 1-year salary at around $14-$15M puts the Sox very, very close to last year's payroll (and I believe higher in terms of luxury tax # new due to AAV of long term deals). It's nice to tell Ben to go get some pitching, but with what money? We may see more Andrew Millers and Jesse Carlson's, as opposed to Madson's and Kuroda's. In hindsight, offering Ortiz arbitration may have been a mistake. It's hard to envision him signing a 2 year, $20M deal now but the $4-$5M in AAV savings would help a lot (hell, there were a few tweets recently about a 3 year deal being possible, probably the only way to get him to take an AAV hit that low).

Assuming Ortiz at $14M, Ellsbury at $6M, Salty at $1.5M, Aceves, Aviles, Bard, and Lowrie all at ~$1M a piece puts the Sox payroll just about where it was last season. Goes without saying that the $25M owed to Lackey and Matsuzaka is a major drag.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 07 December 2011 - 09:17 PM.

[maufman]

While I'm happy to have Papi back, a 1-year salary at around $14-$15M puts the Sox very, very close to last year's payroll (and I believe higher in terms of luxury tax # new due to AAV of long term deals). It's nice to tell Ben to go get some pitching, but with what money? We may see more Andrew Millers and Jesse Carlson's, as opposed to Madson's and Kuroda's. In hindsight, offering Ortiz arbitration may have been a mistake. It's hard to envision him signing a 2 year, $20M deal now but the $4-$5M in AAV savings would help a lot (hell, there were a few tweets recently about a 3 year deal being possible, probably the only way to get him to take an AAV hit that low).

Assuming Ortiz at $14M, Ellsbury at $6M, Salty at $1.5M, Aceves, Aviles, Bard, and Lowrie all at ~$1M a piece puts the Sox payroll just about where it was last season. Goes without saying that the $25M owed to Lackey and Matsuzaka is a major drag.

Iirc, the Sox' AAV is lower than their cash payroll, now that several players (Lester, Pedroia and Youk) are on the second half of their long-term deals.

Otherwise, I agree with everything you said.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Edes just tweeted that it's official.

Ortiz updated his Facebook account with the message "Happy to remain a member of Red Sox Nation."

[Corsi]

ortiz files at $16.5M, #redsox at $12.65M

https://twitter.com/#!/JonHeymanCBS/status/159412178397560832

[SoxScout]

Man, they may actually fight that out. That would be fun having another year of pissed off Ortiz who got to listen to the Red Sox tell him why he isn't worth it. Offering him is looking like a disaster.

[TheYellowDart5]

As Pete Abe pointed out on Twitter, that $12.65M offer is a raise from last season's pay ... by the staggering total of $100,000.

I get that in the end, this is a business, but an offer like that seems like it's going to anger Ortiz more than anything else. Guy puts up a terrific season across the board, and the FO decides to toss in a hundred grand for his troubles?

[Corsi]

As Pete Abe pointed out on Twitter, that $12.65M offer is a raise from last season's pay ... by the staggering total of $100,000.

I get that in the end, this is a business, but an offer like that seems like it's going to anger Ortiz more than anything else. Guy puts up a terrific season across the board, and the FO decides to toss in a hundred grand for his troubles?

While I agree the $100K is kind of insulting, you have to view it from the standpoint that they're going to try to settle somewhere between their two numbers.

Currently, the median salary is $14.575M. If they offered $13.5M and Ortiz stuck with his $16.5M figure, the median would be $15M. In other words, they'd have to cough up another $500K based solely on their original filing number.

Now obviously the numbers I just threw out are arbitrary, but at some point, the team has to do a cost-benefit analysis to see if ~$500K is enough savings to risk pissing off Ortiz.

[twothousandone]

Split the difference and it's $14.57 million.

Offer a more reasonable raise ($450K to get to a round $13 million?) and splitting the difference costs more ($14.75 million), but seems as though it may fit the "respect" claims a bit better.

[Corsi]

Also, David signed his $12.5MM AAV contract coming off of a 5.5 WAR season, so to say that he deserves a substantial raise five years later, after a 3.8 WAR season doesn't really follow.

[In my lifetime]

As Pete Abe pointed out on Twitter, that $12.65M offer is a raise from last season's pay ... by the staggering total of $100,000.

I get that in the end, this is a business, but an offer like that seems like it's going to anger Ortiz more than anything else. Guy puts up a terrific season across the board, and the FO decides to toss in a hundred grand for his troubles?

Although the 100k raise is minimal, Ortiz put out imo, a figure which is much more of an outlier. The RS might have figured that if an arbiter has to decide between 12.65 and 16.5, he would pick the minimal raise as opposed to the 30% raise. I think the real issue will be is Ortiz willing to take a lower figure to get a 2 year deal, like 2 for 24M.

[rembrat]

I wonder if Ortiz would be willing to do something like 2yr/$26.65M. Obviously $12.65M for 2012 and $14MM for the second year or something along these lines.

[JakeRae]

I wonder if Ortiz would be willing to do something like 2yr/$26.65M. Obviously $12.65M for 2012 and $14MM for the second year or something along these lines.

Why not just give him 1/14, which seems like it's about the settlement point on the current deal?

[rembrat]

Why not just give him 1/14, which seems like it's about the settlement point on the current deal?

I dont think 1/14 entices them to settle outside of arb. A 2yr deal with a raise in year 2 does that imo.

If there is one guy who im betting on to win his case its Ortiz. He is an elite DH and the gap between him and the rest of the league is pretty big. I dont see what the Sox arguement would be.

[The Allented Mr Ripley]

That even the best DHs don't get paid like elite hitters who can field a position?

Edited by The Allented Mr Ripley, 17 January 2012 - 07:33 PM.

[Corsi]

I dont see what the Sox arguement would be.

Also, David signed his $12.5MM AAV contract coming off of a 5.5 WAR season, so to say that he deserves a substantial raise five years later, after a 3.8 WAR season doesn't really follow.

[PedroKsBambino]

There's so many other factors involved in that comparison (the first two that come to mind are risk taken on by Sox is very different back then, and the market has changed) so I'd be pretty surprised if that was a very significant plank in the Sox case.

[SoFloSoxFan]

What it looks like to me is that Ortiz's agents (and possibly the RS) submitted their number simply as a starting point for negotiation, with no expectation whatsoever of going to a hearing. At some point the FO will actually have to take someone to arbitration simply to keep future submitted numbers honest.

[SoxFanPJ]

In 2011 it was Hafner $13M, Ortiz $12.5M, Dunn $12M, Vlad $7.6m.

To me the most comparable aging veteran with elite hitting skills this off season was Carlos Beltran who landed a 2/$26M w/full No trade clause. But of course this ignores he OF/DH issue.

I don't see how the DH market justifies the arbitration figure David is asking for. Even the Red Sox offer seems exorbitant based on the market for DHs.

[Hyde Park Factor]

In 2011 it was Hafner $13M, Ortiz $12.5M, Dunn $12M, Vlad $7.6m.

To me the most comparable aging veteran with elite hitting skills this off season was Carlos Beltran who landed a 2/$26M w/full No trade clause. But of course this ignores he OF/DH issue.

I don't see how the DH market justifies the arbitration figure David is asking for. Even the Red Sox offer seems exorbitant based on the market for DHs.

But Ortiz isn't just any DH, at least not here in Boston. Plus, $12.65 mil isn't really exorbitant when you consider that it's only a $100K raise from 2011. I like Ortiz as a DH going forward a lot more than I like a position player who becomes a DH because he can't play the field anymore. I hope they can split the difference and work this out before it actually goes to arb.

[rembrat]

Also, David signed his $12.5MM AAV contract coming off of a 5.5 WAR season, so to say that he deserves a substantial raise five years later, after a 3.8 WAR season doesn't really follow.

Why would a prior contract have any weight in this hearing? And the panel doesn't care about WAR. They will look at his HRs and RsBI and maybe his BA/OBA/SLG.

Since Ortiz joined the Sox in 03' the top 3 homerun hitters are Albert Pujols 374, Alex Rodriguez 331, David Ortiz 330. The top 3 RBI men have been Albert Pujols 1072, David Ortiz 1028, Alex Rodriguez 1021. He has also been an allstar 7 out of 9 times and won the Silver Slugger 5 out of 9 times as a Red Sox. As far as his postseaon contributions go they are well documented - .284/.400/.540 12HR 43RsBI in 260PA.

Dunn can't be his comp because he has only played like 6% of his total games at the position. Hafner is a better comp with his 87% of his total games at DH. Hafner made $13MM last year but his counting stats pale in comparison to Ortiz.

So, ya, I think Ortiz has a good case. It would be the ultimate kick to the FO's crotch if he won and something I'd like to see. Screw them.

[twothousandone]

Matsui got $4.25 million last year, Guerrero made $7.6 million. Ortiz in 2011 was immensly better than either guy was in 2010. In fact, in 2010 Ortiz was much better than either guy.

And the panel doesn't care about WAR. They will look at his HRs and RsBI and maybe his BA/OBA/SLG.

Is this really true? Because IF Guerrero's .841 OPS in roughly 600 at-bats is worth $7.6 million, and it was the lowest of his career by almost 100 points and lower than his career average, I think there's a decent argument that Ortiz's .952 OPS, that is above his career average, and better than any of his previous three years (two of which were better than Guerrero's .841), is worth a lot more. $16 million is a stretch to win at arb, but I think $12.6 is also a stretch.

I'll bet both sides know they are going to settle, and they are chuckling about it right now. But they each put in their bids to make sure the other doesn't have the upper hand. If Ortiz wins, that would have to be a serious smack to the luxury tax avoidance efforts.

[maufman]

The FO basically submitted the lowest arb number they can defend with a straight face. That's a lousy tactic if you're trying to win an arbitration case (or settle on favorable terms), but it may be a shrewd move if the goal is to reach agreement on a 2-year deal.

[Rudy Pemberton]

This is all part of the ongoing plan to ensure that every Red Sox legend has their tenure here end badly.

Wasn't there rumors that the Sox offered Ortiz 2 / $18M? And now at least $12.6 for one?

I can't imagine him settling for any less than 2 years, $25M now.

Seems like the Sox botched this. Knowing the payroll concerns, why even offer arb?

Just hard to see how this ends well.

[JakeRae]

Why would a prior contract have any weight in this hearing? And the panel doesn't care about WAR. They will look at his HRs and RsBI and maybe his BA/OBA/SLG.

Since Ortiz joined the Sox in 03' the top 3 homerun hitters are Albert Pujols 374, Alex Rodriguez 331, David Ortiz 330. The top 3 RBI men have been Albert Pujols 1072, David Ortiz 1028, Alex Rodriguez 1021. He has also been an allstar 7 out of 9 times and won the Silver Slugger 5 out of 9 times as a Red Sox. As far as his postseaon contributions go they are well documented - .284/.400/.540 12HR 43RsBI in 260PA.

Dunn can't be his comp because he has only played like 6% of his total games at the position. Hafner is a better comp with his 87% of his total games at DH. Hafner made $13MM last year but his counting stats pale in comparison to Ortiz.

So, ya, I think Ortiz has a good case. It would be the ultimate kick to the FO's crotch if he won and something I'd like to see. Screw them.

Why should his 2003-2007 performance have anything to do with his 2012 compensation level?

When he signed his previous contract, he was coming off seasons of 41, 47, and 54 HR the previous 3 seasons. His last 3 seasons, he has HR totals of 28, 32, and 29. For RBI, those numbers are 139, 148, 137 before his last contract. This one, he is coming off seasons of 99, 102, 96.

The reason his last contract is a somewhat useful comp is because it is the contract signed by one of the best players to ever play his position at that players peak. Inflation offsets Ortiz' decline to retain the usefulness of the comp. Dunn is another great comp. Going into last season, Dunn was a pretty similar player to what Ortiz has been recently, in terms of offensive quality, and just signed a contract that averages $14 million/year. He was averaging almost 10 HR more per season and several more RBI per season during the 3 years before signing that contract than Ortiz has over his last 3. He did have a lower average.

Victor Martinez is another usable comp as someone who just signed a fairly expensive contract to be a DH. In all cases, Ortiz' arb figure is way too high whereas $12.65 seems a bit low but withing the spectrum of comparable players (which is generally the basis for arb decisions). Anything over $14 makes Ortiz the highest paid DH in the game. $14-$14.5 is the settlement point, slightly to the team side of the midpoint for the two submissions.

[rembrat]

Actually we might be all wrong here since arb cases look at service time and not position. For Ortiz that is 13 years. I have no possible tool to figure out who is in his class.

I used his numbers from 03 because that is the year he joined the Red Sox. His agent can use this to establish his contributations to the team.

• The player's contribution to his team
• His previous salary
• The salaries of players in a similar class
  

EDIT: Without looking, I'd say alot of 13 year veterans are making more than $12.65MM per.

Final EDIT: You can find the exact wording by googling mlb cba. A PDF should pop up. The paragraph is under "Criteria."

Edited by rembrat, 18 January 2012 - 01:37 PM.

[BucketOBalls]

EDIT: Without looking, I'd say alot of 13 year veterans are making more than $12.65MM per.

I would expect that to be right about the midpoint really. Lots of players arn't very good, but can stick around for 13 years because they don't decline to badly.


It wouldn't surprise me if they arbitrator just suggested the midpoint and both sides said "OK".

[Rudy Pemberton]

Arbitrator has to pick one or the other, cannot suggest midpoint or any other #

[SumnerH]

Arbitrator has to pick one or the other, cannot suggest midpoint or any other #

Exactly. Just for clarity, the arbitrator has to pick either the player's suggestion or the team's suggestion. (As Rudy says, he/she can't split the difference or otherwise come up with another number). So your goal as player or team is to pick a number that's just slightly more reasonable than the other side's, so that when the arbitrator picks the lesser of two evils you win.

[SoxScout]

"I don't know," said the DH when asked if he expected an agreement to be reached before a hearing. "It doesn't seem like it right now."

Ortiz submitted a figure of $16.5 million for his arbitration case Tuesday, while the Red Sox came in at $12.65 million. According to a source, the slugger had previously been offered a two-year deal by the Sox, at $9 million season.

"I guess that's part of the game," he said. "From a business standpoint, that's how it goes. … I've been watching from the outside."

Ortiz' agent, Fern Cuza, met with Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington late last week prior to exchanging arbitration figures. Arbitration hearings will be held from Feb. 1-20.

"This is the first time I've paid attention to it," said Ortiz of the arbitration process. "It might be a big deal, but it doesn't seem like it to me."

http://www.weei.com/...l-will-get-done

[maufman]

Those quotes from Papi reinforce my belief a 2-year deal is in the works. I'm guessing 2/24.

[In my lifetime]

I agree with 2 for 24M instead of 1 for 14 (if negotiated).

Both parties should have a fairly significant incentive to work out a 2 year deal:
A 2 year deal is the best chance the Red Sox have to shave some AAV off their books (12M instead of 12.65, 14 or 16.5) and have a hope to get under the tax threshold. A contract of 16+ would make getting under the tax unrealistic.
Ortiz coming off his best year in a while, would gain the security of a 2 year deal.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Do we really want to commit to him for 2013, though? I have a feeling we might regret the loss of flexibility next winter.

Edited by Savin Hillbilly, 20 January 2012 - 12:48 PM.

[JakeRae]

Do we really want to commit to him for 2013, though? I have a feeling we might regret the loss of flexibility next winter. I

This is where I'm at. I'm hopeful Middlebrooks will be ready, which means we would only want to bring back one of Youk or Ortiz. (Hopeful does not mean I am counting on it, just that it is a serious possibility that should impact decision making at the margins.) How confident are we that we will want Ortiz to be the DH instead of Youk, assuming a roughly similar cost? How willing are we to commit to the second year and risk Ortiz getting hurt and becoming dead money when the organization has a team option for a perfectly adequate replacement?

If they had been able to work out 2/24 prior to Ortiz accepting arbitration, I would've taken that as the cost of keeping him on the Sox for 2012, where he is definitely needed. Now, I'd prefer they pay the premium for the 1 year deal and reassess next offseason.

[twothousandone]

But, if Ortiz wins, it's $16 million this year, and the lux tax implication may mean that a $10 million contract next year costs $14 million. If it's going to cost you $4 million next year, anyway (and everything else with the multiplier) it'd be better to savea couple million on the lux tax hit this year -- assuming they have a chance to get under the cap.