They're already so deep in this (basiclly punting 2014, even 2013 is holing for a bit of a wish and a prayer) that I cant see them backing iut now. The most telling thing for me is the lack of outrage from the media and fanbase. For the most part, the Yankee marketing dept have done good here. Most people understand why they're doing it, and accept it (if grudgingly). They're are no fan revts on the horizon. So if you have this sort of tacit acceptance of a larvely unpopular move, why on earth would you not take it while you're apparently getting a freebie from the fans? Likely a big part of that is here is a clear endgame, an obvious light T the end of the tunnell (2015). I think I read sonewhere that if they dont reset the tax, the cost will be $50 million/year for as long as they are over the cap. Not even the Yankees will pay that for the foreseeable future with no end in sight (2014 represents the best chance...if they dont do it then, I dont know when they can do it) when they have a clear path to that goal within sight.
I expect the Yanks to stay the course. There were a lot of moves this offseason that needed to be done that didnt get done because of this. I cant see them change course now.
Although if Hal is absutely telling the truth, then the plan is as good as scrapped. There is no realistic scenario that has NY as a "championship team" for 2014. Not that they cant squeak in, but on paper, before he seaso starts (which is when this decision will need to be made) it will be imposible for them to cobble together anything close to resembling a "championship caliber team"
The Yankees have willingly paid the tax and revenue sharing for years and done well. Whats changed? The tax went from 40% to 50%, that's all. So instead of paying 12 million in luxury tax in 2014 if the payroll is 220 million they pay 15 million. They have paid as much as 26 million in luxury tax in previous years when the tax threshold was much lower.
Obviously, it is the revenue sharing rebates that are driving this, but they have paid full revenue sharing dollars in the past and still done well as an organization.
As for this being the best time to reset the tax by dropping payroll to 2004 levels(an inflation adjusted payroll cut of almost 50%), I have to disagree. If they sign Cano, which they have to do to remain competitive they will have over 110 million committed 5 players, and that does not include Jeter who will make at least 9.5 million if he does not demand a new contract. So that's 120 million for 6 players. That leaves 69 million for the next 34 spots on the roster to get themselves a CF'er, DH, a couple of starters and a closer to play alongside the stars which are an aging 3Bman with bad hips, a 39 yo SS, a declining 1B man, a 39 yo RF'er, and Cano/CC.
I would argue this is the worst time to cut payroll. After all, it was Hank who hamstrung the team with that ridiculous A-Rod contract which is the main reason for them being over 189 million today. It probably kills him when he looks back on it that A-Rods deal has not only cost him 30 million AAV, but will cost 15 million in luxury tax and another 30 million is lost revenue sharing rebates (my estimate). A-rod will need to hit 100 HR a year to cover his cost, which is about 75 million a year if you look at it that way. That may be what's driving Hank although we can not know for sure.
So Hank is faced with a dilemma, to cut payroll to 189 million and save 45 million in tax and revenue sharing rebates and risk losing far more than this in revenue if the team is not competitive, or going over the threshold to field a competitive team and accept the fact that bad hips A-Rod is costing him 75 million a year for a contract he is responsible for.
Not too late for the Yankees to improve the team though. Mike Napoli is still looking for a contract.
Edited by Sampo Gida, 11 January 2013 - 07:15 PM.
