720 replies to this topic

[mabrowndog]

Figured it's about time to start talking about who plays who where & when. I'll update this table as slots get filled.

I refuse to recognize any sponsoring corporations in referring to these bowls, and am calling them by their original names wherever possible. I do list the sponsors at far right (along with their payouts) in case there's any confusion.

UPDATED 12/4/2011

	Time							Payout
Date	(pm EST)	Bowl	Team 1	Team 2	Location	TV	Sponsor	(total)
12/17	2:00	New Mexico Bowl	Temple	Wyoming	Albuquerque	ESPN	Gildan	$912,500
12/17	5:30	Potato Bowl	Utah St	Ohio U.	Boise ID	ESPN	Famous Idaho Potatoes	$650,000
12/17	9:00	New Orleans Bowl	LA-Lafayette	San Diego St	New Orleans	ESPN	R+L Carriers	$1,000,000
12/20	8:00	St. Petersburg Bowl	Marshall	Florida Int'l	St. Petersburg	ESPN	Beef 'O' Brady's	$1,075,000
12/21	8:00	Poinsettia Bowl	TCU	Louisiana Tech	San Diego CA	ESPN	S.D. County Credit Union	$1,000,000
12/22	8:00	Las Vegas Bowl	Boise St	Arizona St	Las Vegas NV	ESPN	Maaco	$2,200,000
12/24	8:00	Hawaii Bowl	Southern Miss	Nevada	Honolulu HI	ESPN	Sheraton	$1,300,000
12/26	5:00	Independence Bowl	Missouri	North Carolina	Shreveport LA	ESPN2	AdvoCare V100	$2,300,000
12/27	4:30	Motor City Bowl	W. Michigan	Purdue	Detroit MI	ESPN	Little Caesars	$1,500,000
12/27	8:00	Queen City Bowl	Louisville	NC State	Charlotte NC	ESPN	Belk	$3,400,000
12/28	4:30	Military Bowl	Toledo	Air Force	Washington DC	ESPN	Northrop Grumman	$2,000,000
12/28	8:00	Holiday Bowl	Texas	California	San Diego CA	ESPN	Bridgepoint Education	$4,150,000
12/29	5:30	Citrus Bowl	Florida St	Notre Dame	Orlando FL	ESPN	Champs Sports	$4,550,000
12/29	9:00	Alamo Bowl	Baylor	Washington	San Antonio	ESPN	Valero	$6,350,000
12/30	12:00	Armed Forces Bowl	Tulsa	BYU	Dallas TX	ESPN	Bell Helicopter	$1,200,000
12/30	3:20	Pinstripe Bowl	Rutgers	Iowa State	Bronx NY	ESPN	New Era	$3,600,000
12/30	6:40	Music City Bowl	Wake Forest	Mississippi St	Nashville TN	ESPN	Franklin American Mortgage	$3,675,000
12/30	10:00	Copper Bowl	Iowa	Oklahoma	Tempe AZ	ESPN	Insight	$6,650,000
12/31	12:00	Texas Bowl	Northwestern	Texas A&M	Houston TX	ESPN	Meineke Car Care	$3,400,000
12/31	2:00	Sun Bowl	Ga Tech	Utah	El Paso TX	CBS	Hyundai	$4,000,000
12/31	3:30	Liberty Bowl	Vanderbilt	Cincinnati	Memphis TN	ABC	AutoZone	$2,875,000
12/31	3:30	San Francisco Bowl	UCLA	Illinois	San Francisco	ESPN	Kraft Fight Hunger	$1,675,000
12/31	7:30	Peach Bowl	Virginia	Auburn	Atlanta GA	ESPN	Chick-fil-A	$6,900,000
1 / 2	12:00	Dallas Bowl	Penn State	Houston	Dallas TX	ESPNU	TicketCity	$2,200,000
1 / 2	1:00	Hall of Fame Bowl	Michigan St	Georgia	Tampa FL	ABC	Outback	$7,000,000
1 / 2	1:00	Tangerine Bowl	Nebraska	S. Carolina	Orlando FL	ESPN	Capital One	$9,100,000
1 / 2	1:00	Gator Bowl	Ohio St	Florida	Jacksonville FL	ESPN2	Taxslayer.com	$5,450,000
1 / 2	5:00	Rose Bowl	Wisconsin	Oregon	Pasadena CA	ESPN	Vizio	$36,120,000
1 / 2	8:30	Fiesta Bowl	Oklahoma St	Stanford	Glendale AZ	ESPN	Tostitos	$34,110,000
1 / 3	8:30	Sugar Bowl	Michigan	Virginia Tech	New Orleans	ESPN	Allstate	$34,110,000
1 / 4	8:30	Orange Bowl	Clemson	West Virginia	Miami FL	ESPN	Discover	$34,110,000
1 / 6	8:00	Cotton Bowl	Kansas St	Arkansas	Arlington TX	FOX	AT&T	$7,250,000
1 / 7	1:00	Birmingham Bowl	Pittsburgh	SMU	Birmingham AL	ESPN	BBVA Compass	$950,000
1 / 8	9:00	Mobile Bowl	Northern Illinois	Arkansas St	Mobile AL	ESPN	GoDaddy.com	$1,500,000
1 / 9	8:30	BCS Nat'l Championship	LSU	Alabama	New Orleans	ESPN	Allstate	$42,540,000

Edited by mabrowndog, 04 December 2011 - 09:55 PM.

[mabrowndog]

Some current bowl projections:

ESPN
CBS
CollegeBowlProjections.com
Orlando Sentinel
Scout.com

Also, Miami FL will not accept a bowl invitation due to the ongoing NCAA investigation.

Edited by mabrowndog, 20 November 2011 - 09:11 PM.

[Old Fart Tree]

Dude, awesome work.

I would love to watch that Tostitos Haynewsorth Bowl with Stanford against OSU.

[sachmoney]

All of the projections have Michigan going to the Sugar Bowl. All but the College Bowl Projections have us facing Houston (CBP has us playing Stanford). I would prefer to face Stanford 1. because I want to see what this team can do against Andrew Luck 2. I've been dogging Stanford all year and I want to see if my feelings towards them are justified (what better way!) 3. playing Houston is a lose-lose situation.

vs Houston:
Case Keenum leads the world in passing yards and passing TDs, but he has yet to face a good team. Michigan has a top 15 pass defense and a top 10 scoring defense (I say this with a huge smile after the last three years). Will Keenum be as effective with Mike Martin, Jake Ryan, Ryan Van Bergen, and Craig Roh breathing down his neck? I doubt it. On the other side of the ball, Houston's run defense is ranked 77th in the country and Michigan's run offense is kind of good. I don't think Houston will be able to stop Toussaint and Robinson, who will control the clock and keep Keenum off the field. I don't want to play Houston.

vs Stanford
Though these teams have very different quarterbacks, the coaching philosophies are similar. Harbaugh built a run first, pro-style offense for Stanford, something that David Shaw has continued. Hoke and Borges are trying to build an offense with that philosophy. Michigan has a better rushing attack and a better passing defense. Stanford has a better rushing defense and a better passing attack. It is a very interesting match up. Looking at Stanford's game against Oregon, I see that the Ducks ran for 232 yards against the Cardinal. You can run on them if you have a good running attack. Michigan has a good running attack. I'd love to see this happen.

We have to win The Game though. That's what I want.

[mabrowndog]

All of the projections have Michigan going to the Sugar Bowl. All but the College Bowl Projections have us facing Houston (CBP has us playing Stanford).

For the record, the pecking order in the BCS at-large selection process is Fiesta > Sugar > Orange. I don't think there's a chance in hell the Fiesta passes up Stanford in a match-up with the OK St-Okla winner.

[Infield Infidel]

BYU accepted an invite to the Armed Forces Bowl

[sachmoney]

For the record, the pecking order in the BCS at-large selection process is Fiesta > Sugar > Orange. I don't think there's a chance in hell the Fiesta passes up Stanford in a match-up with the OK St-Okla winner.

Good to know, but is it possible for Michigan to leapfrog Stanford into that game? A Fiesta Bowl representative was at the Nebraska-Michigan game (there was a Capital One bowl representative too, foreseeably for Nebraska). I expect us to go to the Sugar Bowl, but I'm curious because I want to see Michigan versus a name opponent.

[Williams Head Case]

Christ, each of those projections has Wake Forest in a different bowl.

[WayBackVazquez]

Not that it really matters, but doesn't the Sugar Bowl get first pick if they'd be losing LSU and Alabama?

[Infield Infidel]

Not that it really matters, but doesn't the Sugar Bowl get first pick if they'd be losing LSU and Alabama?

Yup, unless Georgia wins the SEC championship

[Domer]

Good to know, but is it possible for Michigan to leapfrog Stanford into that game? A Fiesta Bowl representative was at the Nebraska-Michigan game (there was a Capital One bowl representative too, foreseeably for Nebraska). I expect us to go to the Sugar Bowl, but I'm curious because I want to see Michigan versus a name opponent.

It's definitely possible because Stanford has the worst travel reputation of all at-large major conference schools.

Also, Stanford's reputation will be tarnished after their loss this Saturday.

Edited by Domer, 21 November 2011 - 01:14 AM.

[sachmoney]

It's definitely possible because Stanford has the worst travel reputation of all at-large major conference schools.

Also, Stanford's reputation will be tarnished after their loss this Saturday.

I'm not counting you guys out, but considering you were thumped by USC and you haven't exactly been demolishing weak competition lately (three ACC teams), I'm not optimistic about your chances. Plus, playing a night/evening game on the road usually means trouble, especially against a quality opponent.

[Old Fart Tree]

As Amphetamine Annie once said, Speed Kills, man. In particular against Stanford. I don't think we have a legitimate chance against any offense that can out-100m us, but I'm not convinced that Notre Dame is such a team.

That may simply be because my mind gets immediately and irrationally clouded whenever Notre Dame is discussed: holy shit do I fucking hate Notre Dame. As an Irishman - whose grandfather literally designed the tripartite flag, was tossed out of Ireland for being a Republican, and led the New York Fighting 69th through every major bloodbath of the civil war (ostensibly lending me some credibility) - the idea that this drunken, brawling, Simian, Punch Magazine caricature of the Irish is something I'm supposed to get behind is so goddamn offensive to me that frankly I wish the Sandusky scandal happened to them. Notre Dame's mascot is something out of the 1890s NINA days; it is basically the equivalent of Howard University having the "Watermelon Eating Negroes" as its mascot, or Brandeis rallying behind the "Money Counting Jews" mascot. Fucking absurdity. But I digress.

Stanford's actually a very simple team at the end of the day. While Cal is an outlier that I'm willing to write off because it's a rivalry game, they will basically destroy any sub top 10 team. Any top 10 team that can out-track meet it? Well, we get exposed. As a result, I would prefer that Stanford face any Big 10 team in a bowl game. SEC speed = problems, and likely the over. We would basically need a perfect game from Luck to pull off any kind of victory.

[Old Fart Tree]

PS Domer I have it as Stanford -6. I would love to lay that bet without paying the vig. You interested in say $100? Or $200 where $100 goes to the winner, $100 to the SOSH Jimmy Fund?

[Gdiguy]

Stanford's actually a very simple team at the end of the day. While Cal is an outlier that I'm willing to write off because it's a rivalry game, they will basically destroy any sub top 10 team. Any top 10 team that can out-track meet it? Well, we get exposed. As a result, I would prefer that Stanford face any Big 10 team in a bowl game. SEC speed = problems, and likely the over. We would basically need a perfect game from Luck to pull off any kind of victory.

I'd discount the Cal game entirely; the weather was absolutely terrible the entire game (it rained off and on, and we were nearly positive we saw snow flurries early in the first quarter), and the field was atrocious (which helped the run game sometimes, but there were a lot of times Luck seemed to expect people to be somewhere and they were either falling down or just a couple steps slow). However, I otherwise completely agree with you

[gtg807y]

Miami announced that they are self-imposing a bowl ban for this year. Would have meant a lot more if they'd announced it in August or September rather than sitting at 6-5.

"I'm clearly disappointed," said Miami coach Al Golden, who university officials said was not involved in the choice to go forward with the ban. "I believe it's the right decision and I'm 100 percent behind the decision. ... We're one step closer to putting these issues behind us."

Al Golden's getting the hell out of there at the first opportunity.

Edit: don't know why the quote tags aren't working

Edit2: The Tag was embedded around other tags. -Cuz

[Chemistry Schmemistry]

In terms of BCS invites, there are seven locks (the SEC's second representative will be either 2nd or 3rd in the standings), with Houston getting an eighth automatic berth with two more wins.

I see the next two (or three) at-large berths going in this order...

- Stanford (if it beats Notre Dame)
- Virginia Tech (if it loses the ACC championship game)
- Michigan (if it beats Ohio State)
- Virginia Tech (if it loses to Virginia)
- Stanford (if it loses to Notre Dame)
- Oklahoma State (if it loses to Oklahoma)
- Kansas State (if it beats Iowa State)
- Boise State (if it wins two games)
- Oklahoma (if it loses to Oklahoma State)
- A three-loss loser of the Big Ten championship game

This includes a couple of assumptions - Oregon beating Oregon State and Oklahoma beating Iowa State.

[gmogmo]

In terms of BCS invites, there are seven locks (the SEC's second representative will be either 2nd or 3rd in the standings), with Houston getting an eighth automatic berth with two more wins.

I see the next two (or three) at-large berths going in this order...

- Stanford (if it beats Notre Dame)
- Virginia Tech (if it loses the ACC championship game)
- Michigan (if it beats Ohio State)
- Virginia Tech (if it loses to Virginia)
- Stanford (if it loses to Notre Dame)
- Oklahoma State (if it loses to Oklahoma)
- Kansas State (if it beats Iowa State)
- Boise State (if it wins two games)
- Oklahoma (if it loses to Oklahoma State)
- A three-loss loser of the Big Ten championship game

This includes a couple of assumptions - Oregon beating Oregon State and Oklahoma beating Iowa State.

I think a 2 loss Michigan team is more desirable than a 2 loss Va Tech team coming off an ACC title loss to Clemson. I'd probably argue that a 2 loss Ok State team is as well. (just can't imagine the ACC getting 2 teams in)

[WayBackVazquez]

There really is absolutely no way Virginia Tech gets selected as an at-large over an eligible Michigan. It would never happen, and nobody with an understanding of the process thinks it would. Ticket sales, travel spending, merchandise sales, and television ratings all so overwhelmingly favor Michigan, that unless you have some inside knowledge of a VaTech alum with blackmail-worthy secrets about multiple selection committee members from each of the bowls, or are trying to work some reverse jinx psychology on the universe, I don't know why you would say that.

VaTech is not a draw.

[Chemistry Schmemistry]

There really is absolutely no way Virginia Tech gets selected as an at-large over an eligible Michigan. It would never happen, and nobody with an understanding of the process thinks it would. Ticket sales, travel spending, merchandise sales, and television ratings all so overwhelmingly favor Michigan, that unless you have some inside knowledge of a VaTech alum with blackmail-worthy secrets about multiple selection committee members from each of the bowls, or are trying to work some reverse jinx psychology on the universe, I don't know why you would say that.

VaTech is not a draw.

Because, if you look at the process, the rankings also matter. And while the committee may choose Michigan at 14th over Virginia Tech at 7th (a definite possibility under the scenario above), history shows they don't stray that far from the rankings if it means the exclusion of the higher-ranked team.

[WayBackVazquez]

Because, if you look at the process, the rankings also matter. And while the committee may choose Michigan at 14th over Virginia Tech at 7th (a definite possibility under the scenario above), history shows they don't stray that far from the rankings if it means the exclusion of the higher-ranked team.

First, the rankings don't matter. Using the extraordinarily small sample size of past at-large selections as evidence that they do is unpersuasive since there are even fewer comparable situations--one of the great draws in college football; participant as an unranked team in the only non-BCS bowl to beat (and destroy) BCS bowls in TV ratings; first time as ranked team entering bowl season in several years; alternative choice being proven failure in ticket sales and tv ratings--to draw from. Pointing to the one time that PSU at #13 was passed over in favor of Iowa at #10 would ignore the fact that Iowa itself has a huge traveling fanbase and that Iowa was itself selected by the Orange over #6 Boise. Michigan/VT and PSU/Iowa are apples and oranges.

Additionally, there is absolutely NO WAY a VT team that loses for the second time to Clemson and doesn't have a single win against a Top 20 team has that kind of BCS spread against Michigan if it beats OSU. The human polls have VT as high as it is now only because a large number of voters are loathe to rank a 2-loss team ahead of an AQ team with one loss at this stage of the season. Once VT gets that second loss, it falls way back down to earth. All you have to do is look where these two teams were relative to each other before Michigan got its second loss -- 1 spot in the Harris, and 2 in the Coaches poll. Fortunately, I think there's a very good chance we'll actually see this play itself out.

Edited by WayBackVazquez, 22 November 2011 - 04:33 PM.

[bowiac]

Is Michigan a lock to be BCS eligible with a win vs OSU?

1. LSU - Locked into the top 14 regardless of the rest of the season.
2. Alabama - Locked into the top 14 regardless of the rest of the season.
3. Arkansas - Locked into the top 14 regardless of the rest of the season.
4. Oklahoma State - Locked into the top 14 even with a loss to Oklahoma, unless Oklahoma loses to Iowa State first.
5. Virginia Tech - Might drop out of the top 14 with a loss @ Virginia. A win vs. Virginia and a loss in the ACCCG however probably keeps them in.
6. Stanford - Might drop out of the top 14 with a loss @ home vs. Notre Dame. The Irish are ranked 22 however, so they might not. Is there an off chance that if Notre Dame wins that Notre Dame might jump into the top 14 too?
7. Boise State - Almost certain to win out and remain top 14.
8. Houston - Almost certain to win out and remain top 14.
9. Oklahoma - Needs to beat Iowa State first obviously. Does losing on the road to #4 drop them out of the top 14?
10. Oregon - Needs to win both remaining games to stay in the top 14.
11. Kansas State - Likely to win out and remain top 14.
12. South Carolina - Will remain top 14 with a win vs. Clemson. However - this is pretty zero sum, as Clemson would then surely jump Michigan to get into the top 14. Not sure what happens with the ACCCG loser then.
13. Georgia - Needs to win @ Georgia Tech, and will then likely remain top 14 even with a loss to #1 LSU.
14. Michigan State - This spot is pretty locked in for the winner of the Big Ten, whether it's MSU, Penn State, or Wisconsin. I imagine the losers are out, so only one Big Ten team will be top 14 other than Michigan.

17/19. - There's a spot here for the Penn State/Wisconsin winner in the top 14, but that's lost if they lose to MSU, so that's irrelevant ultimately.
18. If Baylor wins out, they're gonna pass Michigan I assume. Two home games for them vs. decent teams.

I don't know. It's unlikely, but if every favorite wins out, then I think Michigan might be locked out actually. The big questions are whether the ACCCG and Bedlam losers remain top 14 or not. I don't have a good sense for how voters treat those kinds of losses. Plus one of those spots might have to go to Baylor anyways.

Edited by bowiac, 22 November 2011 - 05:23 PM.

[WayBackVazquez]

Honestly, I don't know how you can get to sleep at night with all of the monsters hiding under the bed. My responses below apply to whether the teams would be in the top 14 and above a 10-2 Michigan.

Is Michigan a lock to be BCS eligible with a win vs OSU?

1. LSU - Locked into the top 14 regardless of the rest of the season.
2. Alabama - Locked into the top 14 regardless of the rest of the season.
3. Arkansas - Locked into the top 14 regardless of the rest of the season.
4. Oklahoma State - Locked into the top 14 even with a loss to Oklahoma, unless Oklahoma loses to Iowa State first.
5. Virginia Tech - Might drop out of the top 14 with a loss @ Virginia. A win vs. Virginia and a loss in the ACCCG however probably keeps them in.

A loss to Virginia would almost certainly drop VaTech out of the Top 14. Remember, this is a team without a quality win.

6. Stanford - Might drop out of the top 14 with a loss @ home vs. Notre Dame. The Irish are ranked 22 however, so they might not. Is there an off chance that if Notre Dame wins that Notre Dame might jump into the top 14 too?

Of course not. Notre Dame has 3 losses, including to Michigan. None of the voters are going to rank it above a 2-loss Michigan. And Notre Dame is currently not even in the Top 25 in 3 of the computers. The distance between ND and Michigan in the BCS standings now is farther than the distance between Michigan and Oklahoma or Houston.

7. Boise State - Almost certain to win out and remain top 14.
8. Houston - Almost certain to win out and remain top 14.
9. Oklahoma - Needs to beat Iowa State first obviously. Does losing on the road to #4 drop them out of the top 14?

Probably. You are overthinking this. There is no 3-loss team that will be higher in the human polls than a 2-loss Michigan.

10. Oregon - Needs to win both remaining games to stay in the top 14.
11. Kansas State - Likely to win out and remain top 14.
12. South Carolina - Will remain top 14 with a win vs. Clemson. However - this is pretty zero sum, as Clemson would then surely jump Michigan to get into the top 14. Not sure what happens with the ACCCG loser then.

While it is possible that Clemson could jump Michigan with a win, they would both be in the top 14.

13. Georgia - Needs to win @ Georgia Tech, and will then likely remain top 14 even with a loss to #1 LSU.

Maybe, but barely. And they would be below Michigan. Voters really, really don't like to put a 3-loss team above a 2-loss team from a power conference. It almost never happens at the end of a season.

18. If Baylor wins out, they're gonna pass Michigan I assume. Two home games for them vs. decent teams.

Do you really believe this? You really think beating a 5-6 TT and a 6-5 UT is going to make this team jump over Michigan? Baylor currently has 616 points to Michigan's 1164 in the Harris and 302 to Michigan's 618 in the Coaches. This is like insane 2003 Red Sox-level paranoia you have going here. What in the 132-year history of this school makes you so certain you're going to get screwed? Is this all because there was no rematch in 2006? Because this is really pretty insane.

If Michigan takes care of business on Saturday, it will be in the top 14. It really will. Everybody off the ledge.

Edited by WayBackVazquez, 22 November 2011 - 06:34 PM.

[axx]

Sugar (replacing LSU): Michigan
Fiesta: Stanford
Sugar: Houston
Orange: Some crappy Big East team

If Michigan doesn't get eligible:

Sugar (replacing LSU): Stanford
Fiesta: Houston
Sugar: Big 12 team
Orange: Some crappy Big East team

[bowiac]

Do you really believe this? You really think beating a 5-6 TT and a 6-5 UT is going to make this team jump over Michigan? Baylor currently has 616 points to Michigan's 1164 in the Harris and 302 to Michigan's 618 in the Coaches. This is like insane 2003 Red Sox-level paranoia you have going here. What in the 132-year history of this school makes you so certain you're going to get screwed? Is this all because there was no rematch in 2006? Because this is really pretty insane.

I was at Michigan from 2008-2010. I haven't known a whole lot other than disaster and debacle really.

Anyways, I'm not certain we're gonna get screwed by any means. I'm just less than confident that Michigan will make the top 14 even with a win. In the scenario where Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, Stanford beats ND, VaTech wins the ACCCG, and Baylor jumps Michigan by beating a ranked Texas team seems pretty plausible to me. That puts Michigan like 16th I think - so there's room for some error there even.

But like I said, I'm not like a longtime college football fan. I could be missing something here.

[WayBackVazquez]

I was at Michigan from 2008-2010. I haven't known a whole lot other than disaster and debacle really.

Anyways, I'm not certain we're gonna get screwed by any means. I'm just less than confident that Michigan will make the top 14 even with a win. In the scenario where Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, Stanford beats ND, VaTech wins the ACCCG, and Baylor jumps Michigan by beating a ranked Texas team seems pretty plausible to me. That puts Michigan like 16th I think - so there's room for some error there even.

But like I said, I'm not like a longtime college football fan. I could be missing something here.

Yes, you're missing a lot. You are likely to live to 105 and not see the day where Michigan drops in the rankings or standings after beating Ohio State.

Edited by WayBackVazquez, 22 November 2011 - 08:45 PM.

[Chemistry Schmemistry]

Honestly, I don't know how you can get to sleep at night with all of the monsters hiding under the bed. My responses below apply to whether the teams would be in the top 14 and above a 10-2 Michigan.

It's tough having a rational discussion with you sometimes. Can we do this, outside of P&G, without the nastiness? Makes me feel like I'm dealing with a precocious teenager.

A loss to Virginia would almost certainly drop VaTech out of the Top 14. Remember, this is a team without a quality win.

Virginia's an 8-3 team. Losing at Virginia would be no more damaging than losing at Iowa was for Michigan. So, no, I wouldn't say certainly. I would say around 12th.

If Tech has no quality wins, then does Michigan? Virginia Tech's best win was at #23 Georgia Tech. Michigan has home wins against #21 and #22.

Of course not. Notre Dame has 3 losses, including to Michigan. None of the voters are going to rank it above a 2-loss Michigan. And Notre Dame is currently not even in the Top 25 in 3 of the computers. The distance between ND and Michigan in the BCS standings now is farther than the distance between Michigan and Oklahoma or Houston.

I would agree with this.

Probably. You are overthinking this. There is no 3-loss team that will be higher in the human polls than a 2-loss Michigan.

I can see Oklahoma, with another win and a close loss at Oklahoma State, staying in the top 14. No other three-loss team, though.

If Michigan takes care of business on Saturday, it will be in the top 14. It really will. Everybody off the ledge.

Beating Ohio State at home means a lot to us, but won't mean much to the computers. I think it will be close. I'd feel a lot better about it if Virginia Tech wins out. Give me a Tulsa victory over Houston (the Cougars haven't had a game remotely close to as tough as this one so far) and I'll be happy.

[WayBackVazquez]

It's tough having a rational discussion with you sometimes. Can we do this, outside of P&G, without the nastiness? Makes me feel like I'm dealing with a precocious teenager.

And I feel like your only purpose in life is to take absurd positions on noncontroversial subjects with the goal of being provocative. Still, you're quoting me when I was neither talking to you, nor being "nasty." Seeing monsters under the bed is a common turn of phrase meant to add color when pointing out irrational fears. Some of us collect spreadsheets, and some of us use idioms and analogies. You need to stop being such a thin-skinned child or put me on ignore if you don't like my writing.

I will happily accept up to $100 in Jimmy Fund bets against any or all of the following:

If Michigan wins Saturday, it finishes in the top 14 of the BCS standings.
If Michigan wins Saturday, it receives a BCS Bowl Bid.
If Michigan wins Saturday, and VaTech loses to Virginia, Michigan will be ranked higher than VaTech in next week's BCS standings.
If Michigan wins Saturday, it will be ranked higher than every 3-loss team in the Final BCS standings.

With that, I am done talking about hypotheticals. Bets fan be accepted in the P&G thread up until kickoff of the Michigan game. You can even wait to see the result of that all-important Texas game.

[Chemistry Schmemistry]

It's not about being thin-skinned, it's just tiresome to have to deal with a kid who can't discuss anything without behaving like a jackass first. Sometimes you add value. But often, your arguments are just "you suck, you suck, you suck, so I'm right and you're wrong..." Why bother?

I'm not taking any bets that require me to root against Michigan's success. Odds are at least decent that if Michigan wins, it goes to a BCS game. Odds are good that Virginia Tech wins the ACC. The third proposition is one I disagree with, but I can't say I feel strongly enough about it to make it a huge issue.

[WayBackVazquez]

It's not about being thin-skinned, it's just tiresome to have to deal with a kid who can't discuss anything without behaving like a jackass first. Sometimes you add value. But often, your arguments are just "you suck, you suck, you suck, so I'm right and you're wrong..." Why bother?

I'm not taking any bets that require me to root against Michigan's success. Odds are at least decent that if Michigan wins, it goes to a BCS game. Odds are good that Virginia Tech wins the ACC. The third proposition is one I disagree with, but I can't say I feel strongly enough about it to make it a huge issue.

And I think it is about you being thin-skinned. Like I said, you consistently choose to take radical and often indefensible positions and then kick your persecution complex into high gear when I disagree with them. I didn't call you names, i didn't take your lunch money, I just strongly disagreed with what you had to say. I think it has no foundation in reality, and every bowl projection on the planet -- most of which are created by full-time professionals or obsessed amateurs who've been at this since the BCS has been around -- sees it the same way I do. Yes, the conventional wisdom can be wrong, but when the overwhelming weight of considered opinion is against you, I'd say the burden is on you to show me the error of our ways.

Again, I implore you, if you find my disagreement with you so "tiresome," please put me on ignore. But throwing tantrum after tantrum and calling me names is not going to get me agree with your ill-considered projections.

If Tech has no quality wins, then does Michigan? Virginia Tech's best win was at #23 Georgia Tech. Michigan has home wins against #21 and #22.

Yes, VaTech beat Georgia Tech. GaTech has a computer average of 0.000, that is, not among the top 28. Nebraska is 21st according to the computers, and Notre Dame is 25th. Virginia, like GaTech, is not among any of the BCS computers' top 25. A loss to UVA would cause VaTech to absolutely plummet in the BCS standings.

[Domer]

That may simply be because my mind gets immediately and irrationally clouded whenever Notre Dame is discussed: holy shit do I fucking hate Notre Dame. As an Irishman - whose grandfather literally designed the tripartite flag, was tossed out of Ireland for being a Republican, and led the New York Fighting 69th through every major bloodbath of the civil war (ostensibly lending me some credibility) - the idea that this drunken, brawling, Simian, Punch Magazine caricature of the Irish is something I'm supposed to get behind is so goddamn offensive to me that frankly I wish the Sandusky scandal happened to them. Notre Dame's mascot is something out of the 1890s NINA days; it is basically the equivalent of Howard University having the "Watermelon Eating Negroes" as its mascot, or Brandeis rallying behind the "Money Counting Jews" mascot. Fucking absurdity. But I digress.

Sorry about my late response, I'm out of the country and internet access is scarce.

Considering your family history, I suppose you are aware that the chaplain of the Fighting 69th was Father William Corby, president of the University of Notre Dame. You might not know that the Fighting Irish moniker was first used as a nickname for 69th, having been coined by the warrior poet Joyce Kilmer.

Personally I don't care for the leprechaun logo, but it doesn't bother me either. It's crude, but not offensive, having come from an era when cartoon logos, such as Pat Patriot and Miami's ibis, were popular. On the nickname issue, I don't share your concern. My philosophy was best stated on Seinfeld; you can't give yourself a nickname. Much like newspapers called the local ballclub Americans and Pilgrims before Red Stockings started to catch on, Notre Dame's athletic teams were called Catholics and Ramblers before Fighting Irish stuck. On the other hand Stanford chose the worst way to go about the issue by picking a color, an aspiring choice meant to reflect the more eastablished Ivy League institutions on the east coast.

As for your other post, check your PMs.

[Old Fart Tree]

I thought it was Lee who nicknamed them the Fighting 69th. At least, that's the story passed around in my family, which in no way makes it true.

That Stanford dealt with the "offensive nickname" issue in the most ham-fisted, shameless manner is an assertion with which I cannot possibly disagree; in fact, it's an assertion I have made multiple times, largely in threads ostensibly about Albert Haynesworth. That this has anything to do with Notre Dame's mascot is where I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. It would be more relevant, in my opinion, if Stanford had changed its name not from the "Stanford Indians" but from the "Stanford Firewater-Drinking Smallpox-Infested Indians" with a mascot that basically looked like Chief Wahoo staggering around a casino with a handle of Jack, but of course, it didn't.

We are on for $30 at Good Guys -7.

[Hendu's Gait]

With UCLA going to the Pac-10 + 2 Championship Game, is it too much to ask for, in the future, for a team on probation to be eligible to go its own conference championship game (but not the BCS Bowl tie-in)? Such that, for example, USC to play Oregon/Stanford, but if USC wins, still send Oregon or Stanford (whoever is the highest-rated team after the game) to the Rose Bowl? Am I 100% off-base on this, or just 51% off-base?

[Manny ActaFool]

With UCLA going to the Pac-10 + 2 Championship Game, is it too much to ask for, in the future, for a team on probation to be eligible to go its own conference championship game (but not the BCS Bowl tie-in)? Such that, for example, USC to play Oregon/Stanford, but if USC wins, still send Oregon or Stanford (whoever is the highest-rated team after the game) to the Rose Bowl? Am I 100% off-base on this, or just 51% off-base?

Given how infrequently this scenario plays out, only 1% off base. But how embarrassing would it be if UCLA somehow wins at Autzen or Stanford and is the PAC-12 Rose Bowl nominee? At least they got it right this year to have a school host the title game... I don't think they'd sell out a neutral site.

[cgori]

if Stanford had changed its name not from the "Stanford Indians" but from the "Stanford Firewater-Drinking Smallpox-Infested Indians" with a mascot that basically looked like Chief Wahoo staggering around a casino with a handle of Jack, but of course, it didn't.

I might be more in favor of this than the color cardinal. (Robber Barons would have been so sweet though...)

[Domer]

With UCLA going to the Pac-10 + 2 Championship Game, is it too much to ask for, in the future, for a team on probation to be eligible to go its own conference championship game (but not the BCS Bowl tie-in)? Such that, for example, USC to play Oregon/Stanford, but if USC wins, still send Oregon or Stanford (whoever is the highest-rated team after the game) to the Rose Bowl? Am I 100% off-base on this, or just 51% off-base?

Imagine if UCLA lost its other OOC game. If they had seven losses would they be banned from the championship game like USC?

[Manny ActaFool]

Imagine if UCLA lost its other OOC game. If they had seven losses would they be banned from the championship game like USC?

Nope. I don't have a link to back me up but you win the division, you're in the game AFAIK. Based on tonight's performance maybe Reggie Bush can help file an injunction to get USC up to Autzen. Neuheisel would be out of a job Monday if it weren't for next Friday's game.

[Chemistry Schmemistry]

Jerry Palm has Michigan dropping to 16th in the BCS standings. We essentially had a week without upsets.

Since MSU and Wisconsin play, that should be worth one spot. Georgia losing to LSU in the SEC championship might be enough for a second spot, especially if it's a convincing loss. I don't see Oklahoma dropping too far if it loses to Oklahoma State.

I still think we need a Virginia Tech win and maybe a Houston upset to get in.

[WayBackVazquez]

We were basically tied with Wiscy for 15th last week. I don't see any way we don't pass UGA in both human polls if they lose to LSU which will be enough for us to pass them. And we'll also pass the loser of the BTCCG. Also KSU if they lose, and possibly even Oklahoma. I maintain that we'll be in barring a Georgia upset of LSU.

[Zososoxfan]

We were basically tied with Wiscy for 15th last week. I don't see any way we don't pass UGA in both human polls if they lose to LSU which will be enough for us to pass them. And we'll also pass the loser of the BTCCG. Also KSU if they lose, and possibly even Oklahoma. I maintain that we'll be in barring a Georgia upset of LSU.

I agree with this and will add that UM should pass OU if they lose. My question is, what does UM need to be eligible (e.g. a top 12 BCS ranking?) or are they already eligible?

Also, I keep hearing/reading that if UM does get a BCS invite, it will be to the Sugar. What are the chances they go to the Orange, or if no BCS invite, that they go to one of the better non-BCS bowls in FL (IIRC, 2 of the better non-BCS bowls are in FL)? Would love to have an opportunity to see T132 again here in FL.

[bowiac]

Yes, you're missing a lot. You are likely to live to 105 and not see the day where Michigan drops in the rankings or standings after beating Ohio State.

So have we seen the day? It looks like Michigan will drop from 15 to 16 the day after beating Ohio State.

[WayBackVazquez]

I agree with this and will add that UM should pass OU if they lose. My question is, what does UM need to be eligible (e.g. a top 12 BCS ranking?) or are they already eligible?

Also, I keep hearing/reading that if UM does get a BCS invite, it will be to the Sugar. What are the chances they go to the Orange, or if no BCS invite, that they go to one of the better non-BCS bowls in FL (IIRC, 2 of the better non-BCS bowls are in FL)? Would love to have an opportunity to see T132 again here in FL.

We need to be in the top 14 of the BCS standings to be eligible for an at-large, and there needs to be at-large spots available. I saw a throwaway line at the end of an espn.com story about us being a potential Orange Bowl pick, but that was the only time I had seen that, and it was without any support. I have made travel arrangements for New Orleans, and though the Fiesta is much more convenient travel-wise for me, I can't imagine any trip being more fun than the Sugar.

[WayBackVazquez]

So have we seen the day? It looks like Michigan will drop from 15 to 16 the day after beating Ohio State.

I suppose it's possible, though we gained ground in the coaches poll (and the AP, to the extent it matters), and likely will do so in the Harris as well.

Edited by WayBackVazquez, 27 November 2011 - 04:34 PM.

[axx]

If the Orange manages to get a team other than the Big East "champion", it'd be a miracle.

[axx]

Michigan has a shot at #14, but it's going to be really close. That might be the bigger drama come next Sunday than whether the Cowboys can pass Alabama. Georgia beating LSU would spoil the party however.

Edited by axx, 27 November 2011 - 08:56 PM.

[WayBackVazquez]

I don't think it'll be that close. That is, I feel pretty confident Michigan will be number 13 or better.

The one thing that became very clear this weekend is that the ACC gets one team only. Did you see how Arkansas plummeted to 10 in the coaches poll? Yes, they got blown out, but their only losses are to the number 1 and 2 teams, both on the road. Virginia Tech, if it loses will have worse losses, and not a single win over a Top 25 team. Not to mention that this week VaTech dropped from #7 to #10 in the computers. Like I said last week, they MAY stay in the Top 14 with a loss, but it would be by the skin of their teeth, and there is no way they'd be selected as an at-large.

[Hendu's Gait]

nm, looks like I was wrong, Georgia has to beat LSU for SEC to get a third team in.

Edited by Hendu's Gait, 28 November 2011 - 09:04 AM.

[Hendu's Gait]

My guess for the BCS bowls as of tonight:

BCS CG: LSU-Bama
Fiesta: Ok St. (or OK)- Stanford
Sugar: Houston v. At-large
Orange: Virginia Tech (or Clemson)-Big East winner
Rose : Oregon-Wisconsin (or MSU)

EDit, yes, Chem's right. Not only does a conference need to get 2 teams into the BCS CG to get a third, but BOTH of those have to non-champions, not just one.

Edited by Hendu's Gait, 28 November 2011 - 02:29 PM.

[Chemistry Schmemistry]

My guess for the BCS bowls as of tonight:

BCS CG: LSU-Bama
Fiesta: Ok St. (or OK)- Stanford
Sugar: Houston-Arkansas
Orange: Virginia Tech (or Clemson)-Big East winner
Rose : Oregon-Wisconsin (or MSU)

That's not possible, in that a third SEC team can only receive a bid if non-champions are #1 and #2.

I think Michigan could well be #14, but will be ranked well below Kansas State. And several spots below Boise State. The BCS bowls would rather have Michigan, but the question is how many places in the standings can they ignore? What is the limit?

Historically, it would be quite unusual to see a team from a major conference drop more than 4-5 spots after a conference championship loss. More than that, and you're looking at a beat-down, or a team from a mid-major.

[bowiac]

Historically, it would be quite unusual to see a team from a major conference drop more than 4-5 spots after a conference championship loss. More than that, and you're looking at a beat-down, or a team from a mid-major.

As far as the "can they pick #14 over #7" question - I think it's incorrect to look too much to BCS history to figure that out. The BCS just isn't old enough for the history to be that instructive. As WayBack pointed out, there are caveats attached to every example. Figuring out which caveats are decisive and which aren't is basically impossible.

The fact that every prognosticator has Michigan in the Sugar Bowl makes me think there won't be any sort of outcry if a comparatively low ranking Michigan team jumps Boise or someone.