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Who closes for this team?


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#101 Hee-Seop's Fable

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Posted 07 December 2011 - 12:29 AM

I fear that you might be right about Madson, HSF, getting more than the Bell contract, but from whom?

So, when you look at all 30 situations, absent the Orioles, Reds, White Sox or Dodgers doing something pretty obviously ill advised given where they are in the success cycle, it's hard to see against whom the Red Sox would be bidding.

You guys move fast. I was trying to sift through, thinking someone like the Nationals, Dodgers, Angels (if they loose out on the "A" guys and feel pressured to do *something*), or Reds (loosing Cordero) shouldn't spend that kind of money, but might be silly enough to. Particularly if they see Madson as a bargain they can't resist.

You may well be right, but when has an accomplished free agent signed a deal that made you think - 'wow, what a bargain!' Rarely at best, and regardless, it looks a lot like the Papi situation in reverse - no matter what we would be willing to spend on him, it's very likely someone else will value him just enough more that he goes elsewhere. Even if he signs Bell's deal here, which would be more than fair, I'm really skeptical that the Sox will effectively lock themselves into going over the tax cap. Hopefully they feel the pressure of the '11 train wreck and 3 years of playoff drought and open their coffers - for Madson or Darvish. But given what Cherington has said about tinkering around under the hood, I'm not optimistic.

#102 Eric Van


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 02:13 AM

McAdam on the CSNNE baseball show just said the Sox already had meetings with the A's today, suggesting Reddick, Lowrie and a lesser prospect for Bailey.


I'd be all over that


Are people on large quantities of psychoactive medication?

Andrew Bailey WAR/year: 2.4 (b-ref), 1.5 (fg), 1.4 (BP).

Jed Lowrie and Josh Reddick combined for 3.3 (BP), 2.2 (fg), 1.9 (b-ref) WAR last year. Playing half the time.

Bailey can't be expected to improve, while Reddick and Lowrie can be.

Bailey is under control for 3 years, Lowrie for 3, Reddick for 5.

So, sure, in order to get 5-6 WAR, let's trade about 20 or more.

If 3 years of a solid closer were really as valuable as eight years of decent position players, don't you think they would have matched Philadelphia's bid for Papelbon?

#103 Eric Van


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 02:40 AM

Numbers for the closer candidates.

As before ...

Everything is the average of the last three seasons, weighted 3-2-1 (and by BFP in season, of course).

EIP is Effective IP and tells you the sample size, not how much they can be expected to work.

E-F(-) is ERA- minus FIP-. Hence negative is good. It's probably 80% noise, but it's there for your perusal nonetheless.

BJ is Bill James' 2012 prediction, park adjusted to a neutral park and adjusted for league (x 1.06 moving from NL to AL).

I grabbed inLI, average leverage at the start of innings, as the best measure of how a pitcher has been used.

WPA has been normalized to a standard BFP per year.

Vs34 is derived from their career splits by batting order position. It's 7 times their OPS allowed vs. 3 and 4 hitters, minus 1 times OPS vs 1 and 2, 2 times OPS vs. 5 and 6, and 4 times OPS vs. 7 through 9. The bigger the number, the more the guy is susceptible to being hit by elite hitters and the more value he'd lose facing a lineup like the Yankees, or pitching in the AL East in general. The MLB average last year was 75.

Closer Possibilities
Name EIP FIP- E-F(-) SIERA BJ inLI WPA Vs34
Ryan Madson 57.6 64 2 2.57 3.50 1.44 1.42 117
Andrew Bailey 46.7 70 -12 2.99 2.36 1.62 1.38 98
Francisco Rodriguez 65.1 75 -5 2.93 2.81 1.54 1.12 63
Huston Street 51.4 82 2 2.75 2.49 1.63 1.25 73
Brandon League 66.2 84 -1 2.90 3.55 1.45 -0.13 70
Francisco Cordero 66.7 95 -23 3.99 3.17 1.64 0.89 61


At worst, they sign K-Rod, who should be perfectly adequate though unlikely to be anything special. Bailey may be the best of the bunch, but his injury history is scary. If he isn't the best, then Madson is, and as others have noted, the question is whether anyone would outbid us. Street us also a very viable candidate; I don't think League is, and Cordero almost certainly isn't.

#104 SoxScout


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 08:00 AM

Peter Gammons
A's considering Boston pitch for Andrew Baailey. Reddick, not Lowrie, prospects

https://twitter.com/#!/pgammo/status/144369257743003648
link to tweet

The Red Sox already have discussed a deal with the As for Andrew Bailey, but right now the price appears high, with Oakland seeking prospects such as third baseman Will Middlebrooks that Boston is hesitant to deal.

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2011/12/07/case_is_far_from_closed_in_bullpen/?page=2

#105 knucklecup


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 08:03 AM

That's just an all around horrible trade proposal that makes zero sense.

#106 JimD

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Posted 07 December 2011 - 08:57 AM

Can't blame Beane for trying, but asking for Middlebrooks is laughable.

#107 JMDurron

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Posted 07 December 2011 - 09:04 AM

Lowrie isn't the piece I'd miss leaving for Bailey, it's Reddick. Scutaro would seem to have SS covered for 2012, although Lowrie would be the depth insurance. Josh Reddick, in my mind, isn't the depth option for RF at this stage, he's the starter in RF barring a massive showing from Kalish. Given Ortiz's return and the overall budget situation, what's the RF solution if Reddick is traded? He seems like a perfectly adequate, affordable RF option for 2012. If the Sox can't afford an upgrade over him anyway, why bother trading Reddick for a reliever with injury issues?

#108 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 09:19 AM

Can't blame Beane for trying, but asking for Middlebrooks is laughable.


Dare I ask why? Bailey is a cost-controlled, very effective closer. If the Sox have very little money to spend, than guys like K-Rod, Madson, etc. are not viable options. I get that WMB is a nice prospect (although hardly an elite one) but I think we go overboard on the value of that. Bailey is an excellent, cheap major league player. If a team wants to acquire him, they are going to have to give up a fair amount since that's the only reason the A's would trade him.

At worst, they sign K-Rod, who should be perfectly adequate though unlikely to be anything special. Bailey may be the best of the bunch, but his injury history is scary. If he isn't the best, then Madson is, and as others have noted, the question is whether anyone would outbid us. Street us also a very viable candidate; I don't think League is, and Cordero almost certainly isn't.


This all makes sense, but is working under the assumption that the Sox can afford a 4 year, $30-$40M deal for Madson. Is there any indication that they have this kind of money?

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 07 December 2011 - 09:22 AM.


#109 bosockboy


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 09:22 AM

Lowrie isn't the piece I'd miss leaving for Bailey, it's Reddick. Scutaro would seem to have SS covered for 2012, although Lowrie would be the depth insurance. Josh Reddick, in my mind, isn't the depth option for RF at this stage, he's the starter in RF barring a massive showing from Kalish. Given Ortiz's return and the overall budget situation, what's the RF solution if Reddick is traded? He seems like a perfectly adequate, affordable RF option for 2012. If the Sox can't afford an upgrade over him anyway, why bother trading Reddick for a reliever with injury issues?


Might be that it's cheaper to find a Reddick replacement than find a closer. Ludwick could be signed pretty easily.....or maybe they splurge and sign Cuddyer.

#110 SoxScout


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 09:48 AM

Buster Olney

Source familiar with OAK's Bailey talks with Boston say they're not that far along, and that Athletics have not asked for Will Middlebrooks.



#111 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 09:50 AM

Might be that it's cheaper to find a Reddick replacement than find a closer. Ludwick could be signed pretty easily.....or maybe they splurge and sign Cuddyer.

Ludwick is not an adequate Reddick replacement at this point in his career. I don't want him as a starter (as a 4th OF, maybe). Cuddyer would be more like it, but will probably cost about the same as Madson. As I said in the FA rumblings thread, trading Reddick for Bailey and then signing Cuddyer is basically equivalent to keeping Reddick and signing Madson, except that we get more righthanded and give the multiyear deal to the RF rather than the closer, both of which might be reasonably argued as pluses. To me the real issue is how much the A's will want besides Reddick. If it's anything substantial, I wouldn't do the deal.

#112 MartyBarrettMVP

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Posted 07 December 2011 - 11:29 AM

Looks like the closer chips keep falling...


Heyman, et al:

Street deal agreed to with padres.


twitter.com/#!/Jon_Heyman/status/144450492595056640link

And this from Rosenthal:

Street trade to #Padres expected to kickstart #Rockies' pursuit of FA Brad Lidge, a Denver-area native.


Rosenthal on Twitter

#113 RedOctober3829


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 12:11 PM

Heyman

#redsox looking at madson. Sounds like boston will give bard chance to start. #angels looking for closer, too. Maybe orioles.


https://twitter.com/#!/Jon_Heyman/status/144463402570481665
link to tweet
link to tweet

Based on media reports the past 24 hours, I'd expect the Red Sox to resolve the closer situation today and either get Madson or Bailey.

#114 MartyBarrettMVP

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Posted 07 December 2011 - 12:23 PM

Heyman


https://twitter.com/#!/Jon_Heyman/status/144463402570481665
link to tweet
link to tweet

Based on media reports the past 24 hours, I'd expect the Red Sox to resolve the closer situation today and either get Madson or Bailey.


So if they give Bard a shot at starting AND sign Madson or Bailey and Bard doesn't work out in the rotation, what then?

#115 RedOctober3829


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 12:40 PM

So if they give Bard a shot at starting AND sign Madson or Bailey and Bard doesn't work out in the rotation, what then?

He goes back to his relief ace role. Not sure that's a complicated issue.

#116 rembrat


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 01:41 PM

How does Huston Street go for a PTBNL? Am I missing something here?

#117 SoxScout


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 01:54 PM

How does Huston Street go for a PTBNL? Am I missing something here?


They didn't want him, they have been saying for weeks either: 1. take him 2. we will pay all his money if you give us prospects.

I would have been perfectly fine with Street, not sure why the Red Sox didn't think he could pitch in the AL East.

Have to admit, if Madson or K-Rod get nervous and blink on a contract, Cherington played this amazingly.

Edited by SoxScout, 07 December 2011 - 01:56 PM.


#118 Corsi


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 02:41 PM

They didn't want him, they have been saying for weeks either: 1. take him 2. we will pay all his money if you give us prospects.

I would have been perfectly fine with Street, not sure why the Red Sox didn't think he could pitch in the AL East.

Have to admit, if Madson or K-Rod get nervous and blink on a contract, Cherington played this amazingly.


More Street: Same GM says #Rockies still talking to at least one other team about Street & insisting #Padres deal isn't done



#119 Corsi


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 02:41 PM

The Rangers met with the Red Sox again this morning. The Red Sox are looking for bullpen help, the names being mentioned are Mark Lowe and Koji Uehara. The Rangers need a utility IF and have an interest in Jed Lowrie.

http://trsullivan.ml...sted-in-uehara/

#120 SoxScout


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 02:44 PM

No interest in Lowe at all, I'd take Uehara in a HEARTBEAT, but hasn't it been reported since the deal all he wants is to get back to Baltimore?

#121 tims4wins


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 02:47 PM

No interest in Lowe at all, I'd take Uehara in a HEARTBEAT, but hasn't it been reported since the deal all he wants is to get back to Baltimore?

Lowe wouldn't be a terrible replacement for Wheeler. .635 career OPS vs. righties. Turning 29 this year.

Lowrie will be a good utility guy for Texas - he can split time between 3B, SS, and the DL!

#122 SoxScout


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 04:22 PM

FWIW, Bowden is making Valentine speechless asking him about lack of transactions on MLB Radio right now.

"Pam, did you approve this?"

When asked about Reddick for Bailey, Valentine's response was, "Is Bailey healthy?"

Edited by SoxScout, 07 December 2011 - 04:22 PM.


#123 SoxScout


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 10:08 PM

Adios K-Rod

bvenezolano: Francisco Rodriguez va a aceptar el arbitraje dijo una fuente. Es oficial

bvenezolano: Francisco Rodriguez will go to arbitration source says

https://twitter.com/#!/bvenezolano

#124 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 10:16 PM

Wow, WTF were the Brewers thinking offering him arbitration? He made $17.5M last year. Holy shit.

#125 bosockboy


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 10:26 PM

Madson must be shitting his pants...three weeks ago he was warming up his pen for 4/44 with the Phils and now his price has to be falling off a cliff.

#126 SoxScout


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 10:30 PM

Madson must be shitting his pants...three weeks ago he was warming up his pen for 4/44 with the Phils and now his price has to be falling off a cliff.


And he only has like $6.5 coming to him in arb, not $15. It would take some huge balls to turn down a $25+ offer to close.

Maybe we will get Rodriguez if the Brewers buy him out for 1/6 his settlement in spring.

Edited by SoxScout, 07 December 2011 - 10:31 PM.


#127 Kramerica Industries

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Posted 07 December 2011 - 10:32 PM

Wow, WTF were the Brewers thinking offering him arbitration? He made $17.5M last year. Holy shit.


That was his option price that was declined..he made 11.5 million.

The point remains though.

#128 bosockboy


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 10:34 PM

And he only has like $6.5 coming to him in arb, not $15. It would take some huge balls to turn down a $25+ offer to close.

Maybe we will get Rodriguez if the Brewers buy him out for 1/6 his settlement in spring.


It seems there aren't any other major suitors....possibly the Angels. I wonder if Boras would do a one year deal and start over next year with Madson. But yeah, I'd think they'd jump at the Heath Bell 3/27 deal now.

#129 SoxScout


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 10:36 PM

Madson declines according to XM

#130 MartyBarrettMVP

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Posted 07 December 2011 - 10:38 PM

Heyman on Twitter

Madson declining arbitration



#131 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 07 December 2011 - 10:40 PM

That was his option price that was declined..he made 11.5 million.

The point remains though.


Ah, you're right. B-ref has him at $12.2M last year, still bad but not as awful as $17.5M. This is still a pretty damaging move for a team like the Brewers, although I'm assuming they could trade him if they kick in some cash (and he agrees).

Otherwise, I guess they hope he has a horrible spring and they have a case to release him and only pay 1/5th of his salary, right?

#132 Eric Van


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Posted 08 December 2011 - 03:30 AM

Updating Rough C's terrific rundown ...

Tampa Bay - Job might be open but no money
They've got Farnsworth, and, agreed, no money to upgrade and demote him to a 7th / 8th inning role.

Baltimore - Job is open some money to spend but should they buy candles before they even have a cake?
Reportedly, they are in the same position with Jim Johnson as we are with Bard -- he either starts or closes (replacing Kevin Gregg who's still around but isn't good) and they are leaning towards the former. Duquette says he wants to be over .500 next year and is looking to upgrade the MLB team, not just build for the future. They are reportedly talking about re-acquiring Uehara.

Minnesota - Job is sort of filled and they don't really have the money.
Re-signed Capps, so it's definitely filled.

Chicago - Kenny Williams says they're rebuilding. They just traded their closer to Toronto.
Their options are Jesse Crain and Matt Thornton, but they're just holding the fort for rookie Addison Reed.

New York Mets - Job is sort of filled and they sort of have no money.
Indeed, the plan is for Francisco, Rauch, and old friend Ramon Ramirez to compete in ST.

Reds - Job is open but doubtful that they'd pay that much.
They've stated that the want to grab someone whom the market has dropped for, and are reportedly interested in Zumaya.

Astros - No way the sketchy new owner will pay that much.
After finally appointing a GM, they're said to be in a complete rebuilding and budget mode.

Rockies - Job is sort of filled (Street) and they won't pay that much.
Traded him to free up salary to acquire a starter, because Rafael Betancourt Wally Pipped him. They are now looking for an 8th inning guy to replace Betancourt.

Dodgers - Job is kind of open but their finances are questionable and there's a lot of suck to fix first
They're going with Javy Guerra and Kenley Jansen, want to add another RHH and even Saito is too expensive.

Padres - They'll never pay the money.
Traded for Street.

So, when you look at all 30 situations, absent the Orioles, Reds, White Sox or Dodgers doing something pretty obviously ill advised given where they are in the success cycle, it's hard to see against whom the Red Sox would be bidding.

In fact, the Sox and Orioles seem to be the only teams with any apparent interest in paying any kind of significant salary for a closer, and we're not sure about the O's. And the Reds are the only other team who look to be acquiring one at all.

No wonder why K-Rod accepted arbitration.

#133 The Boomer

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Posted 08 December 2011 - 08:21 AM

If Cherington gets Madson or another good bullpen arm for the 9th inning at a price that looks good compared to the early overbidders, we ought to give him credit for knowing when patience is a virtue. I still believe that Sean Marshall would be valuable compensation for Theo to give the bullpen a quality lefty who could situationally close.

#134 Corsi


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Posted 08 December 2011 - 08:54 AM

Just speculation on my part, but might this be for Scutaro or Lowrie?

The Mets were debating Wednesday whether to trade Bobby Parnell to an unspecified team for a starting position player, a major league source said.
Mets officials were weighing the merits of the deal and there was no assurance they would pull the trigger.

http://espn.go.com/b...ll-trade-mulled

Edited by Corsi, 08 December 2011 - 08:55 AM.


#135 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 08 December 2011 - 09:30 AM

Reds - Job is open but doubtful that they'd pay that much.
They've stated that the want to grab someone whom the market has dropped for

Sounds like they're in the mix for Madson, then. :lol:

#136 xjack


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Posted 08 December 2011 - 12:58 PM

Just speculation on my part, but might this be for Scutaro or Lowrie?

http://espn.go.com/b...ll-trade-mulled

God, I hope the Sox aren't even thinking about acquiring Parnell to be the closer. The guy is a poor man's Kyle Farnsworth.

#137 Tangotiger

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Posted 12 December 2011 - 03:22 PM

Everything is the average of the last three seasons, weighted 3-2-1 (and by BFP in season, of course). I don't know where Tango gets 5-4-3 for Marcel; I ran a regression on the last three years of FIP- as a predictor of ERA-, and the weights were 3.1, 1.9, 1.0.


Setting aside that we're running regressions on different years (i.e., different data, different results), with Marcel having been constructed sometime in 2003 or so, your statements about Marcel are not factual.

The weights for HITTING is 5:4:3 for Marcel. For PITCHING, it's 3:2:1.

So, if anything, you've got to be super-impressed how close your 3.1, 1.9, 1.0 is (especially since we used different years), not confused!

#138 Eric Van


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Posted 12 December 2011 - 05:21 PM

Setting aside that we're running regressions on different years (i.e., different data, different results), with Marcel having been constructed sometime in 2003 or so, your statements about Marcel are not factual.

The weights for HITTING is 5:4:3 for Marcel. For PITCHING, it's 3:2:1.

So, if anything, you've got to be super-impressed how close your 3.1, 1.9, 1.0 is (especially since we used different years), not confused!

Never knew that! That's awesome: great data sets think alike. Please apologize to (or otherwise attempt to mollify) Marcel for me. I have some film industry connections so perhaps you can promise him that Andy Serkis will play him in the biopic.

What's interesting is that every regression I've ever run on free agent pitching salaries has come out at 3-2-1 as well. An example of a collective intuitive grasp of data. (And lest we think that this is an example of a purely rational market , the intercept on the trendline, i.e., the $ being paid for replacement level, was always way more than MLB minimum ; teams were giving everyone a couple extra million a year just for having had a career.)

#139 Corsi


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Posted 12 December 2011 - 05:25 PM



Bobby Jenks underwent minor back surgery at Mass General today.



The former White Sox closer, who had an injury-filled season with the Red Sox last season, is expected to be ready for spring training to compete for at least a set-up job. Jenks signed a two-year, $12 million deal last offseason.



http://www.boston.co...on:twit:cafardo



#140 Marbleheader


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Posted 16 December 2011 - 02:49 PM

Valentine declared Melancon the "frontrunner" for the closer gig on Friday in a Twitter chat set up by the Red Sox when asked about the team's closer situation.



http://www.nesn.com/...sox-closer.html

#141 Papelbon's Poutine


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Posted 18 December 2011 - 03:46 AM

NESN is reporting that the Sox have spoken to the Royals about Joakim Soria, but that the asking price is too high right now. There had been speculation here and elsewhere when they signed Broxton that they might finally be ready to pull the trigger and move him.

He had a Rough year, buts he's a stud, 27 year old capital C Closer with a great track record and tidy contract (3 years $23M). The Sox are on his no trade list, but my assumption in these cases is that they are often sims a smart negotiating ploy by the agent and an extension after the season starts could satisfy that.

Personally, I'd rather see them spend the money and sign Madson (in all honesty, what chance do they have of staying under the luxury tax at this point?). But if they insist in making a trade rather than a signing, I'd be more comfortable with Soria than Bailey in a vacuum. But what's the price in prospects difference?

Soria has more track record, but while he is cost controlled quite reasonably, his deal doesn't compare to a pre-arb Bailey. I'd think that while the asking price would likely be much different in composition they might be simar in value given the contracts.

So who would we rather have and what are the packages we're okay moving? As stated, I'd rather sign Madson than move prospects for a closer, but if we must I'd rather see Soria.

#142 bosockboy


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Posted 18 December 2011 - 08:39 AM

With Theo now possibly angling for Rizzo, who is suddenly very available, I wonder if we could possibly be a 3rd team in a deal that netted us Marmol.

#143 E5 Yaz


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Posted 18 December 2011 - 01:23 PM

With Theo now possibly angling for Rizzo, who is suddenly very available, I wonder if we could possibly be a 3rd team in a deal that netted us Marmol.


A Red Sox-Cubs-Padres traffic jam of a deal would be the perfect ending to all the "compensation" talk, regardless of who's involved

#144 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 18 December 2011 - 02:09 PM

Marmol makes quite a bit of money and has a career walk rate of 6 / 9, with one year at 7.9! I think he would be a disaster in Boston.

His peripherals in 2010 were stunning. 0.1 HR/9, 6.0 BB/9, 16.0 K/9? damn...

#145 bosockboy


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Posted 20 December 2011 - 01:11 PM

Crasnick:

#RedSox have had increased dialogue with Francisco Cordero this week. #Reds still interested in bringing him back



#146 rembrat


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Posted 20 December 2011 - 01:20 PM

I like it. He cut down on his walks last year by throwing less fastballs and throwing more changeups, smart. His FIP isn't going to blow you away but I like that you can pencil him in for 60-70IP a year.

Aceves, Melancon, Jenks, Cordero and if Bard fails as a starter is not too shabby. I wonder if Cordero can be had for Jenks money or 2/$16M...

#147 czar


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Posted 20 December 2011 - 01:24 PM

I like it. He cut down on his walks last year by throwing less fastballs and throwing more changeups, smart. His FIP isn't going to blow you away but I like that you can pencil him in for 60-70IP a year.

Aceves, Melancon, Jenks, Cordero and if Bard fails as a starter is not too shabby. I wonder if Cordero can be had for Jenks money or 2/$16M...


His K/9 also sank like a rock and has fallen every season since 2007. The only reason his ERA was good because his BABIP was .214 (career avg. .294)

Paying $8-10 million a year for 36 year old with a ~4.20 xFIP the last three years seems ill-advised (at best).

#148 rembrat


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Posted 20 December 2011 - 01:28 PM

I'm fine with his K/9 dropping as long as he can keep improving on his GB%. It was 50% last year.

#149 Harry Hooper


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Posted 20 December 2011 - 01:31 PM

Heyman was on 98.5 today. He said the word is Melancon was brought on board to set up, but the Sox obviously won't advertise this as they negotiate signing or trading for a closer.

#150 bosockboy


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Posted 20 December 2011 - 01:34 PM

It does seems like Bard to the rotation might not be a bluff.