185 replies to this topic

[Corsi]

Red Sox will be in on both Madson and Heath Bell, source says. Not committed to Daniel Bard as closer yet.

https://twitter.com/#!/DKnobler/status/135093770688532480

[rembrat]

I wouldn't go to nuts. Sit back and let the market unfold. I would however avoid Heath Bell or anyone else coming out of an extreme pitchers park, we all saw what happened to Scott Linebrink once he jumped leagues. Madson is intriguing but depending on the price. I'd go after a guy on a 1 year deal still trying to prove he can cut it like K-Rod or Nathan. No reason to lock someone up long term when you have Bard and Jenks hanging around.

[Hendu's Gait]

For September/October 2012, my guess is Jenks as he's the highest paid reliever currently on the roster, with history of closing. April? no idea, as I doubt he'll be healthy by then.

[Rough Carrigan]

I wouldn't go to nuts. Sit back and let the market unfold. I would however avoid Heath Bell or anyone else coming out of an extreme pitchers park, we all saw what happened to Scott Linebrink once he jumped leagues. Madson is intriguing but depending on the price. I'd go after a guy on a 1 year deal still trying to prove he can cut it like K-Rod or Nathan. No reason to lock someone up long term when you have Bard and Jenks hanging around.

Heath Bell is also a fat guy who's 34 and whose K/9 dropped significantly last year, from 11.1/9 to 7.3/9. I would be absolutely stunned if the Red Sox signed Heath Bell to be their closer.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Heath Bell is also a fat guy who's 34 and whose K/9 dropped significantly last year, from 11.1/9 to 7.3/9. I would be absolutely stunned if the Red Sox signed Heath Bell to be their closer.

Eh, I woudn't get too carried away with the drop in K Rate. Jenks' K rate went from 10.3 in '06 to 5.5 in '08, and then back up. With so few innings, these guys can bounce around a bit.

I don't think Bell is nearly as attractive an option as Madson, but he may be a lot cheaper. Someone is going to be left standing around with nowhere to go.

[SoxFanPJ]

Bell scares the crap out of me. Madson or a 1 year deal to Nathan.

[trekfan55]

Bell scares the crap out of me. Madson or a 1 year deal to Nathan.

Does Madson see the deal that fell through with Philadelphia as his price? Or does he somehow accept something less?

[rembrat]

Does Madson see the deal that fell through with Philadelphia as his price? Or does he somehow accept something less?

1. Mariano Rivera, $15,000,000 (2008-10) (2011-12)
2. Brad Lidge, $12,500,000 (2009-11)
3. Francisco Rodriguez, $12,333,333 (2009-11)
4. Jonathan Papelbon, $12,000,000 (2011)
5. Joe Nathan, $11,750,000 (2008-11)
6. Francisco Cordero, $11,500,000 (2008-11)
7. Billy Wagner, $10,750,000 (2006-09)
8. Kerry Wood, $10,250,000 (2009-10)
9. B.J. Ryan, $9,400,000 (2006-10)
10. Jonathan Papelbon, $9,350,000 (2010)
11. Brian Fuentes, $8,750,000 (2009-10)

Top paid relief pitchers by AAV.

This list is largely made up of established closers. You have two dudes there that are comparable to Ryan Madson in that they only had a season's worth closing before getting their deals. BJ Ryan, a cautionary tale now, and Kerry Wood but that was just a 2 year deal.

I don't think he gets 10-11 million over 4 years but I wouldn't be surprised if someone gave him that AAV over 2 years. I'd be interested in Madson at 2/20MM or 2/22MM.

[BosRedSox5]

Meh, maybe I'm cheap, but why not just give the job to Bard? He's had good peripherals, strikes out a ton of guys, doesn't give up too many walks... Then we can fill out the pen on low-risk, potentially high reward re-treads. Relievers are notoriously unpredictable, and there's a pretty convincing case to be made that elite bullpens can be made on the cheap if you do your homework. I mean, if the free agent compensation rules remain in place I'd rather pocket the two extra first rounders from Papelbon, rather than send one out the door by signing another Type A.

[gammoseditor]

Does Madson see the deal that fell through with Philadelphia as his price? Or does he somehow accept something less?

Yeah if the red sox are willing to wait I don't think it matters. Who else is lining up to give a reliever that much money?

[SoxScout]

I'd like to offer Madson something like 3/30 and say find a better deal, or sign a handful of the Broxton-types and let Bard get first dibs.

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

I'd like to offer Madson something like 3/30 and say find a better deal, or sign a handful of the Broxton-types and let Bard get first dibs.

You're going to have a hard time signing guys who want to re-establish their value if you say you're giving the job to Bard, no?

[SoxScout]

You're going to have a hard time signing guys who want to re-establish their value if you say you're giving the job to Bard, no?

Broxton, or someone else, is a dominate 8th inning guy in Boston for a year and he is going to have a hard time re-establishing his value?

[Rasputin]

I am going to be very surprised if it is not some combination of Jenks and Bard. I mean, that's part of why we got Jenks last year, so we'd have him this year when Papelbon left.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

They'll explore the market to see if they can get a good deal on someone (they're better off with someone like Madsen and Bard than they are with Bard and a couple lower tier guys), but if Madsen doesn't come down from 4/44, I think Bard gets the job next year and they don't look back. If they can get Madsen to sign a two year contract, they probably seriously consider that over using the same money for three or four lesser relievers. Aceves will be back, Jenks (presumably healthy) will be back, Wheeler should be back, and they have some minor league options in Doubront and Wilson for low leverage innings. Madsen, Bard, Jenks, Wheeler, Doubront and Wilson means one more spot open that they can fill on a flier or something.

Grabbing Madsen also allows them explore the possibility of converting Bard again, if they're so inclined, but then they also need to go out and grab a Nathan or Broxton type. Personally, I'm hoping they grab Madsen and keep Bard in the pen as the set up guy. But that also includes me hoping they pick up Darvish, which isn't terribly realistic.

[Snowplow]

I am going to be very surprised if it is not some combination of Jenks and Bard. I mean, that's part of why we got Jenks last year, so we'd have him this year when Papelbon left.

I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see a comeback year from Jenks. Hopefully he'll comeback in decent shape (by his standards) with something to prove.

[SoxScout]

Cherington didn't seem overly concerned with finding a closer.

"We do believe we have a couple of internal options to close," he said. "We feel like there are alternatives both internal and perhaps external as well. It's a bountiful closer market relative to some years. We just felt like right now the focus was going to be on other areas of the team."

Daniel Bard is clearly in the mix.

"I think Daniel would embrace more responsibility," Cherington said. "Daniel's one of the most prepared and conscientious guys that we have in that clubhouse. He's proven he's an elite major league pitcher. I think that he would embrace more responsibility and he's ready for more responsibility. We're not ready to commit to any role for Daniel or anyone else in the bullpen but he's certainly ready for more responsibility if given to him."

http://www.boston.co...ington_red.html

Sounds like a big shrug and Madson shouldn't be expected to be walking through the doors next week.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I am going to be very surprised if it is not some combination of Jenks and Bard. I mean, that's part of why we got Jenks last year, so we'd have him this year when Papelbon left.

Sure, Jenks may re-establish himself at some point this season, but how in the world can you go into the season with him penciled in as one of your top relievers, after what happened last season? The Sox need to sign a few guys who project better than Jenks, otherwise, what happens when a few guys go down, as happens every year? It's not as if the high minors are stocked with guys ready to step in.

Ultimately, I don't think the Sox will sign any top relievers for awhile. There's too much on the market. The only way a guy is going to sign a contract now is if you overpay him.

[Eric Van]

A split I look to look at -- career OPS allowed by batting order position. Guys who get hit much harder by 3 & 4 hitters than everyone else (like Heath Bell) are not good candidates to close against elite lineups like the Yankees. Basically, the split gives you an idea of expected post-season performance relative to regular season (especially as you go deeper and face better lineups).

Diff is how much harder 3&4 hitters hit him than everyone else, Diff2 is how much tougher he was on 7 through 9 hitters than 1-6. Ideally, neither number is too big. I've ranked them by both numbers, weighting Diff double.

OPS By Batting Order Position

Name	1&2	3&4	5&6	7to9	Diff	Diff2
Bobby Jenks	734	615	622	649	-54	8
David Aardsma	812	743	672	677	22	65
Jonathan Papelbon	641	593	600	500	12	111
Jon Rauch	797	713	791	587	-12	180
Frank Francisco	809	710	630	611	27	105
Matt Capps	716	780	644	710	90	3
Francisco Cordero	688	721	704	601	56	103
Francisco Rodriguez	555	660	665	542	73	85
Jonathan Broxton	542	696	772	512	87	158
Ryan Madson	746	818	662	651	131	91
Daniel Bard	664	709	416	530	172	66
Joe Nathan	602	736	663	517	142	150
Heath Bell	599	801	548	580	226	69

[jon abbey]

Just FYI, since I just looked it up for myself, Aardsma is a FA but had Tommy John surgery in late July and will miss most of 2012, if not all of it.

[Rasputin]

Sure, Jenks may re-establish himself at some point this season, but how in the world can you go into the season with him penciled in as one of your top relievers, after what happened last season?

Why is one season where a guy was hurt supposed to be more important than the entire rest of his career?

The Sox need to sign a few guys who project better than Jenks, otherwise, what happens when a few guys go down, as happens every year? It's not as if the high minors are stocked with guys ready to step in.

There's no question in my mind that they're going to bring n a bunch of guys. Remember also that Doubront is out of options and will surely end up on the opening day roster unless there is cause to DL him. If you start off a bullpen with Bard, Jenks, Aceves, Doubront, and Wakefield you're probably going to be in pretty good shape.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Diff is how much harder 3&4 hitters hit him than everyone else, Diff2 is how much tougher he was on 7 through 9 hitters than 1-6. Ideally, neither number is too big. I've ranked them by both numbers, weighting Diff double.

This is interesting, but I see two issues with it:

(1) By using career numbers, it ignores career trends--Jenks and Broxton, to name two, are not the pitchers now that they were three or four years ago. It would be interesting to see the same list with some sort of Marcel-like weighting.

(2) By focusing entirely on the differences between batting order groups for each pitcher, it ignores--almost comically at times--the overall differences between pitchers. There's something not quite right about a system that ranks Matt Capps over Daniel Bard because Capps has less of a *relative* problem with 3-4 hitters, even though in fact his OPS vs. 3-4 hitters is 70 points worse.

However, I will admit that this does give me pause about Madson. Being so much better vs. the bottom-of-the-order guys is a little worrisome, especially when you consider some of the cream puff lineups he's had to pitch against in the NL East.

[FanSinceBoggs]

A split I look to look at -- career OPS allowed by batting order position. Guys who get hit much harder by 3 & 4 hitters than everyone else (like Heath Bell) are not good candidates to close against elite lineups like the Yankees. Basically, the split gives you an idea of expected post-season performance relative to regular season (especially as you go deeper and face better lineups).

Diff is how much harder 3&4 hitters hit him than everyone else, Diff2 is how much tougher he was on 7 through 9 hitters than 1-6. Ideally, neither number is too big. I've ranked them by both numbers, weighting Diff double.

OPS By Batting Order Position

Name	1&2	3&4	5&6	7to9	Diff	Diff2
Bobby Jenks	734	615	622	649	-54	8
David Aardsma	812	743	672	677	22	65
Jonathan Papelbon	641	593	600	500	12	111
Jon Rauch	797	713	791	587	-12	180
Frank Francisco	809	710	630	611	27	105
Matt Capps	716	780	644	710	90	3
Francisco Cordero	688	721	704	601	56	103
Francisco Rodriguez	555	660	665	542	73	85
Jonathan Broxton	542	696	772	512	87	158
Ryan Madson	746	818	662	651	131	91
Daniel Bard	664	709	416	530	172	66
Joe Nathan	602	736	663	517	142	150
Heath Bell	599	801	548	580	226	69

Interesting. Such numbers would suggest that Madson is the not the right guy for the Red Sox.

I'm assuming Bard will be the closer unless, of course, the Red Sox move him into the rotation. In that scenario, the Red Sox would need to sign a closer, as Jenks can't be relied on at this point.

Edited by FanSinceBoggs, 11 November 2011 - 08:31 PM.

[OCD SS]

I'd like to see the Sox sign a closer since it would keep Bard's role as that of a relief ace. I think that so long as Bard is paid we can count on him to pitch the highest leverage innings, and then let the guy with fancy title take the ball in the 9th.

Sit back and let the market develop, but I'd prefer that the Sox land 2 of these guys; Maddson would be the best bet, but he might make it harder to land the other guys if they see him as closing off their chances. Nathan and Broxton would probably provide more bang for the buck than Paps...

[EddieYost]

I'd like to see the Sox sign a closer since it would keep Bard's role as that of a relief ace.

I agree with this. Its going to be much harder to find a relief ace than to find a closer, because all the good relievers want to be closers.

[bosockboy]

Why is one season where a guy was hurt supposed to be more important than the entire rest of his career?



There's no question in my mind that they're going to bring n a bunch of guys. Remember also that Doubront is out of options and will surely end up on the opening day roster unless there is cause to DL him. If you start off a bullpen with Bard, Jenks, Aceves, Doubront, and Wakefield you're probably going to be in pretty good shape.

According to Lauber....Aceves has been told to be ready to start in 2012.

I'd go with Nathan on a short deal.

[Toe Nash]

Bard is the simplest option and as closer he'd probably have less stress on his arm and would likely be better than this year, when he was often the only semi-reliable option beyond Papelbon. Bard wasn't abused, but he did pitch on three consecutive days three times last year.

The money for a Bell or Madson can be better spent elsewhere. If you're worried about Bard bring in two cheaper guys with upside and one should be able to fill in if Bard blows it. It's always seemed to me that, except in rare cases where you have a Papelbon - Bard going into the season, bullpens are built throughout the season because relievers are so volatile. You bring in a bunch of guys who can be options and with a little luck you end up with 3-4 guys you can trust by the end of the year.

We had a nice run with Papelbon anchoring the pen, but one of the best closers in baseball (Axford) last year was playing semi-pro ball 5 years ago and was released by the Yankees 4 years ago. It's not easy to find reliable relievers, but it's a lot easier than any other position on the diamond.

[terrisus]

I am going to be very surprised if it is not some combination of Jenks and Bard. I mean, that's part of why we got Jenks last year, so we'd have him this year when Papelbon left.

Well, yes, but when they were planning that, they probably didn't figure on him being injured and out for most of 2011.
If he had been fine this past year, that would be an easier plan, but, how the previous year went is probably going to cause some pause before writing his name in with pen and not looking for other possibilities for next year.

Edited by terrisus, 12 November 2011 - 12:14 AM.

[maufman]

Given this Board's analytical bent, I'm surprised at the consensus that Aceves is likely to play a key role in the bullpen next season.

All stats below from Fangraphs.

Red Sox Relievers 2011 (relief stats only, min 20 IP)

Name	K/9	BB/9	xFIP	SIERA
Jonathan Papelbon	12.17	1.4	2.16	1.43
Daniel Bard	9.12	2.96	3.05	2.58
Dan Wheeler	7.11	1.46	3.71	3.18
Franklin Morales	8.63	3.06	4.06	3.23
Matt Albers	9.46	4.31	3.82	3.23
Scott Atchison	5.04	1.78	3.81	3.51
Alfredo Aceves	6.48	2.81	4.42	3.63
Michael Bowden	7.65	4.95	5.05	4.33

Bard is the only guy on that list who the Sox should be counting on to pitch a lot of high-leverage innings.

The money the Sox would have to spend to sign Madson would be better spent on two less expensive relievers. Joe Nathan (3.25 SIERA) is an intriguing option. I'd let someone else roll the dice on Broxton (4.75 SIERA).

[Eric Van]

This is interesting, but I see two issues with it:

(1) By using career numbers, it ignores career trends--Jenks and Broxton, to name two, are not the pitchers now that they were three or four years ago. It would be interesting to see the same list with some sort of Marcel-like weighting.

I'm acutely aware of that and have been grabbing career numbers because they're much handier, and because you are really bedeviled by SSS if you use just 3 years. A weighted system would work, though (and be a lot of work!)

(2) By focusing entirely on the differences between batting order groups for each pitcher, it ignores--almost comically at times--the overall differences between pitchers. There's something not quite right about a system that ranks Matt Capps over Daniel Bard because Capps has less of a *relative* problem with 3-4 hitters, even though in fact his OPS vs. 3-4 hitters is 70 points worse.

Absolutely. It's a ranking of relative value gained or lost, and you have to keep the absolute value in mind.

Here's a good comparison: guys who are good base stealers and hit a lot of triples are usually good baserunners (first to third, scoring from second on a double, etc.). A ranking of guys by baserunning value is going to look a lot like a list of guys in the same order as what we already know about their speed. If, however, we took the actual baserunning value minus their expected baserunning value based on, say, Bill James speed score, then we would have a ranking of baserunning smarts. You might see David Ortiz near the top of such a list even though he's not actually more than mediocre.

So this list is an attempt to isolate a single factor which you would otherwise be unaware of, to add to the value that you can measure easily. It tells you that Capps will be a bit more valuable than you'd think, and Bard a bit less, as a post-season reliever .... but you still have to start with Bard being much more valuable.

However, I will admit that this does give me pause about Madson. Being so much better vs. the bottom-of-the-order guys is a little worrisome, especially when you consider some of the cream puff lineups he's had to pitch against in the NL East.

Precisely.

[rembrat]

Cool story, bro.

I'd like to see Madson's numbers from 08-11, when he turned into an elite relief pitcher before I sign off on him being a guy that can't cut it in the AL East.

[Hee-Seop's Fable]

A split I look to look at -- career OPS allowed by batting order position. Guys who get hit much harder by 3 & 4 hitters than everyone else (like Heath Bell) are not good candidates to close against elite lineups like the Yankees. Basically, the split gives you an idea of expected post-season performance relative to regular season (especially as you go deeper and face better lineups).

Diff is how much harder 3&4 hitters hit him than everyone else, Diff2 is how much tougher he was on 7 through 9 hitters than 1-6. Ideally, neither number is too big. I've ranked them by both numbers, weighting Diff double.

OPS By Batting Order Position

Name	1&2	3&4	5&6	7to9	Diff	Diff2
Bobby Jenks	734	615	622	649	-54	8
David Aardsma	812	743	672	677	22	65
Jonathan Papelbon	641	593	600	500	12	111
Jon Rauch	797	713	791	587	-12	180
Frank Francisco	809	710	630	611	27	105
Matt Capps	716	780	644	710	90	3
Francisco Cordero	688	721	704	601	56	103
Francisco Rodriguez	555	660	665	542	73	85
Jonathan Broxton	542	696	772	512	87	158
Ryan Madson	746	818	662	651	131	91
Daniel Bard	664	709	416	530	172	66
Joe Nathan	602	736	663	517	142	150
Heath Bell	599	801	548	580	226	69

What is the league-wide OPS for each category? Madson's numbers appear to me to deviate by a fairly natural amount, and his performance the last 2-4 years has shown an impressive progression towards the peak of a high quality, steady reliever. He's not Papelbon '11, and he's not worth a 4 year commitment, but with one of Bard or Aceves in demand by the rotation, they're going to need someone to get late inning outs that is not simply a reclamation project or a "low risk, high upside" roster spot-hogging shot in the dark. Rodriguez' mistakes have him conspicuously absent from any discussion anywhere in the last two weeks. Can his stock fall enough to make him worth a look?

[Domer]

Who manages this team?

Who closes for this team?

I hate to be the guy to say this, but your verb tense is painful to read.

[nvalvo]

Here's a thought:

Start Bard.

Sign Beltran (Does 3/48 get it done?), trade one of Reddick/Kalish for Soria. While it looks like KC has a full outfield, they will presumably want to improve on Francoeur, and will need his replacement after 2012 anyway. They need to assemble a roster close to Hosmer and Moustakas in age, so that the whole team can peak in 2013-5 as their pitching prospects arrive.

Sign another bullpen arm, expected to be reliably decent — what will Jon Rauch cost? — and a high-upside high-risk guy (I'd like to see Zumaya, returning from TJ surgery, on the right deal; Koji Uehara?).

Keep Aceves in the pen. Hope that Jenks can contribute something.

What do you think?

[maufman]

Here's a thought:

Start Bard.

Sign Beltran (Does 3/48 get it done?), trade one of Reddick/Kalish for Soria. While it looks like KC has a full outfield, they will presumably want to improve on Francoeur, and will need his replacement after 2012 anyway. They need to assemble a roster close to Hosmer and Moustakas in age, so that the whole team can peak in 2013-5 as their pitching prospects arrive.

Sign another bullpen arm, expected to be reliably decent — what will Jon Rauch cost? — and a high-upside high-risk guy (I'd like to see Zumaya, returning from TJ surgery, on the right deal; Koji Uehara?).

Keep Aceves in the pen. Hope that Jenks can contribute something.

What do you think?

Why not trade Will Middlebrooks to Seattle for Felix Hernandez while you're at it?

[nvalvo]

Why not trade Will Middlebrooks to Seattle for Felix Hernandez while you're at it?

I don't think it's so hyperbolic, but I take your point. KC is not a team right now that needs an expensive closer, and they do need pre-arb position players.

[dynomite]

trade one of Reddick/Kalish for Soria

1) We're on Soria's no-trade list
2) As of the trade deadline, the Royals were asking for "a small fortune" for Soria (according to Cafardo)

I'd love him at the right price, but I don't think that right price exists for a guy who's only going to throw 65 innings and had an xFIP of 3.38 last year (good, not stellar).

what will Jon Rauch cost?

I've been interested in him for a long time, and would be interested to see him aboard at the right price.

He should be relatively cheap, as he's coming of an injury-plagued and generally poor year (6.14 ERA post-ASB), and FanGraphs loved him as recently as last winter:

What Rauch lacks in fastball velocity – his average 2010 fastball was just 90.9 MPH – he makes up for by pounding the strike zone (his first strike percentage of 64.1% the past three seasons was 10th among relievers with at least 100 innings pitched). And while he is still predominantly a fly ball pitcher, he has also shown some improvement in his GB/FB ratio. After posting a 0.50 GB/FB in 2005, Rauch has moved the needle closer to 1.00 in each of the past five seasons, culminating last year with a 0.85 GB/FB, a number that provides some hope that he can duplicate the low HR/9 and HR/FB marks he has posted the past two seasons.

Even with Aceves apparently moving to the rotation, I would be generally fine going into Spring Training with Bard and Jenks (health permitting) competing for the job, especially so if we have worthwhile options for the 6th/7th innings.

[maufman]

I don't think it's so hyperbolic, but I take your point. KC is not a team right now that needs an expensive closer, and they do need pre-arb position players.

Sorry for the snark.

You're not the only person here who thinks Reddick should be traded. Unfortunately, other teams saw what we did, and if the FO bets against Reddick by making him available, that will further degrade other teams' opinion of him. We wouldn't get much.

KC needs the same thing the Red Sox do -- starting pitching. Soria isn't coming here unless Lester is going there.

[TheoShmeo]

Scott Lauber suggests it's Bard.

I don't mind the idea of giving Bard a shot. He clearly has the stuff.

The bigger question in my view is "who will replace Bard as the primary bridge to the Closer?" The problem in losing Paps is that for much of last season, Bard and Paps were among the Sox only three or, charitably, four relievers who could be counted on most nights.

Either way, here's to Bard doing something this off season to address his September Suck.

[Savin Hillbilly]

The bigger question in my view is "who will replace Bard as the primary bridge to the Closer?"

This becomes an especially critical question if they convert Aceves to a starter, which I think is a reasonable move, since they have two rotation slots to fill and filling even one of them via FA or trade is going to be tricky.

Assuming Bard as closer and Aceves in the rotation, then the bullpen looks like this ("7x" means "7th inning reliever of x hand"):

CL Bard
SU Jenks
7L Morales
7R Albers
6L Doubront
6R Bowden
LR/SP6 Wake/Weiland/Tazawa

This is a somewhat thin and scary bullpen, but the addition of just one quality 7th/8th inning righthander would fix that. The problem is that the non-closer FA pickings are ultra-thin this year. The longer I look at the FA list, the more I question the Sox' decision not to exercise Wheeler's option. I suppose Rauch would be an acceptable alternative--he's a similar kind of pitcher, though his first year of work in the AL East was not promising--but is he really likely to cost less than the $3M we wouldn't pay Wheeler? (I guess, though, since Wheeler and Rauch are both type Bs, exchanging one for the other has the advantage of netting us an extra pick.)

Edited by Savin Hillbilly, 13 November 2011 - 12:04 PM.

[JimBoSox9]

The fact of the matter is, in today's baseball economy starting pitchers get paid big, closers with a "proven track record" (i.e. saves) get paid, and even elite setup men get not-so-paid. On paper leaving Bard as a Jamsian relief ace makes perfect sense, but he has to know that it would end up costing him millions. He's pitched well enough to deserve it, so I dont see how there are any realistic choices for Bard in 2012 besides starting and closing.

[maufman]

There is too much optimism here. To wit:

-- Aceves is an excellent candidate to regress.

-- Jenks has only been an elite reliever in one of the past four seasons, and he hasn't made 60 appearances in a season since 2007.

I think the 2012 bullpen looks something Bard/TBD/TBD/Morales/Aceves/Albers/Jenks.

If offering the closing job to one of the TBDs seals the deal (with Joe Nathan, perhaps), then do it. If not, then let Bard pitch the 9th and get two good relievers to go in front of him.

SSS caveats apply, but Morales looked good after coming here from Colorado. I would give him the situational lefty role, and scramble for a backup plan in-season if that doesn't work. (Resources are limited -- you have to take a risk somewhere.)

It's unlikely that Bard and both TBDs would be healthy and effective all season, so hopefully one of Aceves/Albers/Jenks comes through and pitches better than expected.

Adding two good relievers is easier said than done, but I think it's too risky to expect the current core to get the job done with only one addition this winter. That's even more true if Aceves moves into the rotation. (I assume Bard moving into the rotation is off the table now.)

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

From Rotoworld

According to Alex Speier of WEEI, the Pirates will listen to trade offers for Joel Hanrahan.
There's no guarantee that the Bucs will let go of the 30-year-old right-hander, who posted a 1.83 ERA and 61/16 K/BB ratio in 68 2/3 innings this season. But they're open to offers, and the right one could do the trick. Hanrahan would fit nicely at the back end of the Boston bullpen, and Speier suspects that the Red Sox front office might soon express trade interest.

[TomRicardo]

The closer market is absolutely flooded right now. It made zero sense what the Phillies did with Papelbon especially with their main problem being their offense.

Everyone is going to sit around and see what the market dictates as well as the changes of compensation but the lack of activity after the Papelbon signing tells me no one else is going to spend that kind of money.

[Al Zarilla]

The closer market is absolutely flooded right now. It made zero sense what the Phillies did with Papelbon especially with their main problem being their offense.

About equal to the zero sense it made for some of the Red Sox last few FA acquisitions? The Phillies have probably been lying in the bushes for Papelbon since Lidge started to lose it. They did not want to fuck around and lose him to another team. They can afford it.

[bd11]

From Rotoworld

According to Alex Speier of WEEI, the Pirates will listen to trade offers for Joel Hanrahan.
There's no guarantee that the Bucs will let go of the 30-year-old right-hander, who posted a 1.83 ERA and 61/16 K/BB ratio in 68 2/3 innings this season. But they're open to offers, and the right one could do the trick. Hanrahan would fit nicely at the back end of the Boston bullpen, and Speier suspects that the Red Sox front office might soon express trade interest.

I'd rather sign Nathan or another short term, see if Bard can revert back to being himself and be the next long term closer, and use the trade assets for Jurrjens.

[rembrat]

About equal to the zero sense it made for some of the Red Sox last few FA acquisitions? The Phillies have probably been lying in the bushes for Papelbon since Lidge started to lose it. They did not want to fuck around and lose him to another team. They can afford it.

He means that closers are everywhere right now via FA and the trade market. Hanrahan is out there, so is Marmol, and Soria. Anyone that is smart now will be dangling their closers at the GM meetings.

What Lackey and Crawford have to do with anything here is beyond me.

[Al Zarilla]

He means that closers are everywhere right now via FA and the trade market. Hanrahan is out there, so is Marmol, and Soria. Anyone that is smart now will be dangling their closers at the GM meetings.

What Lackey and Crawford have to do with anything here is beyond me.

I meant that Papelbon is the guy the Phillies really really wanted. So they overpaid some. Sometimes you do that for a guy who's big game proven more than the guys you mentioned. As for saying another team overpaid, it's like people who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones (our overpay to Crawford and Lackey).

[SoxScout]

Sherman
#Padres believe rising dollars being offered closers will lead Bell elsewhere, not accept arbitration
https://twitter.com/#!/Joelsherman1/status/136296182526906369

Heyman
#padres not too optimistic they can keep bell. They've offered 2 yrs but he can probably get 3 yrs for $30m plus elsewhere now
https://twitter.com/#!/SI_JonHeyman/status/136296164462051328

I can see doing 3/30 with Madson, but if we do it with Bell, that would be pretty crazy.

[maufman]

He means that closers are everywhere right now via FA and the trade market. Hanrahan is out there, so is Marmol, and Soria. Anyone that is smart now will be dangling their closers at the GM meetings.

What Lackey and Crawford have to do with anything here is beyond me.

Anyone, in theory, could be available, but Soria and Marmol are not particularly likely to be so.

The Royals are committed to five players (including Soria), for a total of $23mm. Even after they sign their nine arb-eligible players (only Sanchez and Gordon will earn big bucks), they'll be under $50mm. Their opening day payroll was low last year, but was in the $70-75mm range in 2009 and 2010. The Royals are more likely to be buyers than sellers this winter.

The Cubs are committed to seven players (including Marmol) for a total of roughly $71mm. Of that $71mm, more than half is going to players who will be off the books after next season. The Cubs have only four arb-eligible players, though two of those four (Garza and Soto) are likely to be expensive. Still, with a payroll that has been north of $130mm each of the past three seasons, Theo has plenty of room to spend this winter, and will have plenty of room to spend some more a year from now. Theo needs to rebuild the farm system and might be willing to trade Marmol, but the price will be steep.