75 replies to this topic

[Doctor G]

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The Boston Red Sox. If CC had opted out and the Sox had signed this deal there would have been a splooge-fest on the main board, the likes of which hasn't been seen since...last year when the Sox signed CC. The added joy of making the deal at the expense of the Yankees would have been palpable.

Sabathia's career record pitching in Fenway certainly would have lowered the enthusiasm in the Red Sox FO.
They would not have topped the Yankees if he did hit Free Agency. Plus I doubt that CC would have had any interest in pitching half his starts in Fenway Park.

[Brianish]

I completely, totally, 100%, without a doubt disagree with this statement.

Yeah, the general sentiment right now is pretty anti-old-free-agent-pitchers.

[JimD]

The Boston Red Sox. If CC had opted out and the Sox had signed this deal there would have been a splooge-fest on the main board, the likes of which hasn't been seen since...last year when the Sox signed CC. The added joy of making the deal at the expense of the Yankees would have been palpable.

No way. The overall sentimemt would have been that the Yankees got his prime years and the Sox were paying for his declining years.

[Doctor G]

This contract really amounts to the Yankees giving CC a potential 50 million dollar golden parachute.
He would have to have been crazy to take a chance in the free agent market which looks like it could be depressed by Wilson's poor finish and innings pitched concerns. There is no red hot market for starters this year, everyone is keeping their powder dry for next winter.

[crow216]

I think the key is this - "Sabathia will be paid $25 million in 2016, which is the final year of the new contract, the source said. The deal contains a vesting option for $25 million in 2017 with a $5 million buyout solely on the condition of his shoulder because the Yankees have some concern about a pre-existing condition. "

Why would they be signing the contract at all if they have these concerns today? It's a scary thought that he has a pre-existing condition in his shoulder and 6 more years.

Edited by crow216, 01 November 2011 - 10:31 AM.

[nvalvo]

I think the key is this - "Sabathia will be paid $25 million in 2016, which is the final year of the new contract, the source said. The deal contains a vesting option for $25 million in 2017 with a $5 million buyout solely on the condition of his shoulder because the Yankees have some concern about a pre-existing condition. "

Why would they be signing the contract at all if they have these concerns today? It's a scary thought that he has a pre-existing condition in his shoulder and 6 more years.

Exactly. If they were afraid about his shoulder now, they'd be trying to let him opt out.

[EvilEmpire]

This contract situation and the one with Lackey makes me wonder exactly how detailed the medical assessments are of pitchers and how that data is evaluated. How well can a doc look at shoulder records/scans over a period of years and judge the rate of wear and tear? Can a doc look at CC's sholder and predict a shoulder injury 3 or 4 years down the road based on past degradation over time?

Maybe this is a silly question and teams have been doing this for a long time, but I'm just curious how such assessments are made and what medical metrics are used, particularly for long deals.

[86spike]

why is the 6th year listed as some kind of option?

The way I read it, it's a guaranteed $25M unless he finishes the 5th year hurt, in which case they get to buy him out for $5M.

Whatever.

After the end of this season, I'm not expecting the big guy to maintain Cy Young performance for 5 or 6 more years.

[MikeM]

I don't know. I don't think Wilson is a lock to get 100m. And even if he does, CC will make 142m unless his arm falls off. Last year's premiere FA pitcher got 132m. I don't know how much more Sabathia could've gotten from another team.

CC basically got the same contract Lee pulled out of Philly last winter, plus the standard "here's a little more then he got" tax. With it being a relative toss up on which player got the better vesting option tacked on imo (given my belief that both will be fairly cooked by the time year 6 rolls around, i'm preferring my $12.5m buyout if i'm Lee). Had CC opted out and tested FA, i'd of given him better odds then a coin flip on seeing that offer again elsewhere. Especially with a guy like CJ Wilson being the current "prize" otherwise up for grabs, who after missing the boat to inflate his market value in the playoffs, i'm projecting to come in at a touch over Lackey money btw.

So all in all, i'd have to label this a default "win" for the MFY here, as there's little doubt in my mind they don't at least guarantee that 6th year latter had it come down to a bidding war scenario. With or without that legitimate offer elsewhere actually being on the table for that matter.

(seriously though, could it be any better for a FA nowadays then a current negotiation with the Yankees? The next marquee free agent who's agent *isn't* firmly demanding a risk-free/early opt out clause out of them needs to fire that guy asap)

[MikeM]

why is the 6th year listed as some kind of option?

The way I read it, it's a guaranteed $25M unless he finishes the 5th year hurt, in which case they get to buy him out for $5M.

Plus:

-does not spend more than 45 days of 2016 on the DL with a left shoulder injury
-does not make six or more relief appearances in 2016 because of shoulder issues

That latter coming off as fairly open to possibility of individual interpretation, imo.

[jon abbey]

(seriously though, could it be any better for a FA nowadays then a current negotiation with the Yankees? The next marquee free agent who's agent *isn't* firmly demanding a risk-free/early opt out clause out of them needs to fire that guy asap)

You know that they've only ever given out two of these, right? The A-Rod one was in the contract he signed with Texas, the CC one he supposedly wanted wherever he signed to make sure he was happy there, and the Soriano deal was just a mess all around, although it's hard to imagine a scenario where NY would have minded him opting out (even if Rivera/Robertson both had major arm injuries and Soriano had been dominant, I still think NY would have been happy to see Soriano opt out so they could go after Papelbon).

[Saby]

Bottom line: Sabathia will be paid 211M over 9 years by the Yankees.

[jon abbey]

Bottom line: Sabathia will be paid 211M over 9 years by the Yankees.

More precisely, he has been paid $69M already (and earned every penny of it), he is guaranteed another $122M and has a good shot at an additional $20M.

[Saby]

More precisely, he has been paid $69M already (and earned every penny of it), he is guaranteed another $122M and has a good shot at an additional $20M.

Oh, I agree, he has been exactly as advertised so far. No doubt he deserves the contract but rewind to some time ago, I'd never have thought I'd see a pitcher getting so much dough.

[MikeM]

You know that they've only ever given out two of these, right?

I do, but let's put it into it's more specific context here. The first went to one of the trio of guys signed in the splurgefest of Dec 08, with that other/last handed out to the only marquee/outside FA you've brought in since then. Obviously excluding the resigns of your own aging core, because lets be honest there, there wasn't really any rational reason to ask for one in each case to begin with.

So given how all 3 in existence have been seen to play out these last few years, and factoring in the apparent willingness of NY to hand them out, i smell a new pattern emerging. Not that it plays out to be nearly the potential concern for the Yankees as it would other teams, mind you, but still. As a betting man, and in the event you do end up going out and signing CJ Wilson this winter, my money is on him receiving one too.

[jon abbey]

So given how all 3 in existence have been seen to play out these last few years, and factoring in the apparent willingness of NY to hand them out, i smell a new pattern emerging.

I'd recommend working on your olfactory skills.

[MikeM]

I'd recommend working on your olfactory skills.

Heh. I guess we'll see soon enough, as i'll be fairly shocked if the Yankees walk away from this winter without one of Wilson or Darvish. If it does end up being Wilson:

5years/$92.5m of guaranteed money, some type of year 6 option, and an opt-out clause after year 2 or 3 to put it over the top. Book it

[jon abbey]

FWIW, Joel Sherman has the best sources of any beat writer in the NY organization, and he wrote this today in the wake of the CC signing:

"Of course, the Yankees are still going to continue to shop. They want to add another starter. They have no affinity for free agent C.J. Wilson. Their scouts really like Japanese ace Yu Darvish. So the Yankees will probably bid to win the post for his exclusive rights. But they will not go to extremes, especially because they have the comfort of having Sabathia back."

http://www.nypost.co...aO7K03KQQhOIHnM

Of course that could change if they really want Darvish and get outbid, but they also could hold out and hope a big name is available mid-season.

[rembrat]

I don't believe that. They weren't in on Mark Teixeira either.

[EvilEmpire]

I don't believe that. They weren't in on Mark Teixeira either.

Yeah, I agree. They could just as easily be trying to drive the posting fee on Darvish up and the price on Wilson down. Darvish seems to make more sense, but we really have no idea about what their scouts are saying about either.

[MikeM]

Ehh, banking on winning the posting fee there is an iffy proposition at best. Last time it was the Sox throwing out the shocker bid, this time it could easily be somebody else imo. So unless Cashman is prepping that $100m "take no chances" bid as we speak, i'll believe there isn't a strong affinity (yet to be played out) there for CJ Wilson when i see it.

Otherwise with CC now locked in early, and barring a replay of that whole "episode" that went down last winter, i just can't see NY leaving the only real option being presented on the table this go-round. Not after coming up empty there last winter, watching themselves get bounced in the first round of the playoffs this fall, and given the current state of everybody else in the division atm.

[derekson]

Wilson seems like a better fit for NYS than Darvish does. Wilson is a groundballer who allows almost no home runs to lefties (Fielder in the ASG notwithstanding), whereas Darvish is a righty and although I have no idea where one could possibly find GB rates for NPB pitchers, most Japanese pitchers coming to MLB seem to end up as fly ball pitchers.

[jon abbey]

There's an ESPN Insider piece today about why the author thinks Wilson is a bad fit in NY, with his two points being that Texas has much better infield D than NY and the other that Wilson's stats are inflated from so many starts against Seattle and Oakland, 17 of them in the last two seasons. Wilson had the lowest average OPS faced of any pitcher in 2011, .728.

http://insider.espn....playing-rangers

On the other hand, he had much better road numbers than home (3.69 home ERA, 2.31 road), but six of his eighteen road starts were against SEA/OAK.

[derekson]

There's an ESPN Insider piece today about why the author thinks Wilson is a bad fit in NY, with his two points being that Texas has much better infield D than NY and the other that Wilson's stats are inflated from so many starts against Seattle and Oakland, 17 of them in the last two seasons. Wilson had the lowest average OPS faced of any pitcher in 2011, .728.

http://insider.espn....playing-rangers

On the other hand, he had much better road numbers than home (3.69 home ERA, 2.31 road), but six of his eighteen road starts were against SEA/OAK.

Check out Wilson's numbers against the Red Sox though. He has held Red Sox players to a .485 OPS over 172 PA with a 1.44 ERA in 44 innings. And he dominated the Rays in the ALDS last season. Obviously these are small samples, but he can pitch to good offenses. He's not a creation of the division he's pitched in.

Edited by derekson, 01 November 2011 - 11:22 PM.

[Brianish]

Check out Wilson's numbers against the Red Sox though. He has held Red Sox players to a .485 OPS over 172 PA with a 1.44 ERA in 44 innings. And he dominated the Rays in the ALDS last season. Obviously these are small samples, but he can pitch to good offenses. He's not a creation of the division he's pitched in.

Did you see 2008 AJ Burnett's numbers against the Red Sox? Now THERE'S a guy they should get.

[ThePrideofShiner]

Did you see 2008 AJ Burnett's numbers against the Red Sox? Now THERE'S a guy they should get.

I wish the Yankees could get 2008 Burnett back, but I highly doubt it will happen. Sadly.

Edit: For clarity.

Edited by crakerraker, 04 November 2011 - 04:04 AM.