194 replies to this topic

[PrometheusWakefield]

Lets split the Darvish conversation off from the SP thread. Lots of people are excited about likely posting import Yu Darvish. Here are his key numbers with the best named NPPL team, the Nippon Ham Fighters:

Darvish

	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
2008	2.45	9.10	2.12	0.39
2009	2.50	9.33	1.97	0.49
2010	2.75	8.26	2.23	0.45
2011	2.02	9.89	2.09	0.22
TOT	2.42	9.17	2.10	0.39

Obviously, totally dominant. The only small red flag is that much of his value comes from a low HR/9 rate, which is the most likely to increase in the transition to MLB. Here's Matsuzaka for comparison:

Matsuzaka in Japan

	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
2003	2.97	9.97	2.92	0.60
2004	3.07	7.83	2.59	0.43
2005	2.71	9.46	2.05	0.54
2006	2.56	9.66	1.64	0.63
TOT	2.83	9.23	2.30	0.55

Matsuzaka's career numbers in MLB are 8.21 K/9, 4.35 BB/9 and 0.93 HR/9. Overall, his K/9 is 89% of his NPPL total, his BB/9 is 189% and his HR/9 is 169% for an overall FIP of 4.26. Which incidentally in the AL East is reasonably decent.

If we project those ratios to Darvish's numbers, it comes to a 8.15 K/9, 3.97 BB/9, and a 0.65 HR/9, which totals to a 2.97 FIP. So if Darvish has an equal transition to the AL East as Matsuzaka (which I think we would all agree has not been the easiest transition) then he's still an ace-quality pitcher. The two biggest (related) questions that I have in that projection are 1) whether Darvish would have as much difficulty with the nibbling / control that Matsuzaka has had, and 2) whether Darvish really could maintain a 0.65 HR/9 in MLB - which is to say, are his spectacular HR/9 stats from NPPL really about the dearth in NPPL sluggers or is he especially effective in reducing HRs. Darvish is also a year younger than Matsuzaka was when he was posted.

Those numbers IMO make a pretty good case for an aggressive pursuit of Darvish, despite the not so great results from the Matsuzaka posting.

Edited by PrometheusWakefield, 27 October 2011 - 03:31 PM.

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

He's much bigger than Matsuzaka and presumably has proportionately larger hands, but it seems like they should make sure the next luxury import can throw his pitches with an American baseball.

Edited by P'tucket, rhymes with..., 27 October 2011 - 03:30 PM.

[gammoseditor]

If ownership is willing to ok a large posting bid without it effecting the yearly budget then I think this makes a lot of sense. My only concern is committing to a 6 year deal on any pitcher, but the $/year are much less, again as long as you ignore the posting bid, then your normal ace who hits the FA market.

If you allocate the posting bid along with the $/year over the length of the contract it's going to be difficult to fill the rest of the holes this team has and keep the payroll around the luxury tax number.

[Harry Hooper]

Epstein's mandate in Chicago is to replicate what he did in Boston, so will he be driven to lay out a lot of his new boss's dough to land the Japanese pitcher and expand the Cubs global brand?

[Al Zarilla]

He's much bigger than Matsuzaka and presumably has proportionately larger hands, but it seems like they should make sure the next luxury import can throw his pitches with an American baseball.

I used to sit in long boring meetings with Fujitsu engineers and marvel at how small the hands were on most of them. Guessing nobody ever thought of looking at Matsuzaka's hands.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

The more I think about this, the more sense it makes. Assuming they are more concerned with the luxury tax than the total amount spent on acquiring him (the Daisuke posting fee suggests this), I wouldn't have a problem with them spending similar money on Darvish. I wouldn't expect him to be an ace caliber pitcher once he crosses the Pacific, but as a middle of the rotation option, they could do far worse. He'd be approaching his prime years and while, yes, they'd likely need to sign him to a 5 or 6 year deal, they'll have control of him for a minimum of 5 years no matter what (assuming he'd be a super 2), so why not hedge against a huge arb award on the back end by locking him up for the entire time?


He won't cost prospects and his AAV won't be any where near what Wilson or Buehrle will make, even though he has a chance to be a better investment than either of them. If the front office wants to make a big move with limited downside, this is about as good an option as they'll have.

Snagging Darvish means they don't necessarily have to convert Bard which helps strengthen the bullpen and gives them a solid fall back if Papelbon's demands are too much. And I'd feel pretty good about a rotation of Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Darvish and someone like Garland or Jackson. Hell, I'd be happy with those four and Bedard if they still want to try Bard as a starter so long as they get a few Millwood types on minor league deals.

This idea is really growing on me.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 27 October 2011 - 04:47 PM.

[Sprowl]

I am copying a few posts from the MLB Forum thread on Darvish, since they help fill in the picture of Darvish.

Replacement Level Yankees did an interesting bit of guesswork on how he might adjust to MLB. They come out with pretty positive numbers:

http://www.rlyw.net/...r_re_yu_darvish

It does occur to me that they measure all their pitchers equally, and Darvish's transfer to the AL East would be significantly tougher than Kuroda's to the NL West in terms of opponent offense and park factors.

I like Darvsh a lot. He is bigger, younger, and throws harder than Matsuzaka did. I'd rather commit 100 million to him than CJ Wilson.

No pitching thread is complete without video pr0n for youtube scouts. Here's what phragle found:

Same here. Even with the risk of injury (last year, pitcher abuse points looked pretty high for Darvish), he's worth bidding for. His combination of command and movement on the fastball and slider isn't on the market every season. It would be a real pity if the weight of the Lackey and Crawford contracts were to make the Red Sox sit this one out.

Darvish is a very different pitcher from Matsuzaka: different body type, simpler repertoire, better fastball command and velocity. His stuff is the best on the market in 2011, and when it comes to elite starting pitchers, I'd take stuff over rate stats.

doc, if you're reading this, could you repost your ideas on calculating and interpreting pitcher abuse points? Injury risk from overwork at a young age is the big concern with Yu Darvish.

[YTF]

Let's say the Sox have an interest and come calling on Darvish. I have to believe he contacts Matsuzaka and Okajima and asks about their experiences in Boston and as members of the Red Sox. Both have been a part of World Championship teams and both have also had a pretty good look at how difficult it can get when things don't go well. I wonder what influence (if any) those two pitchers may have on any potential decision by Darvish as to whether he comes to Boston or not.

[bosockboy]

Not to mention that a winning Darvish bid and subsequent contract negotiations would make the fan base forget about the collapse.

[mpjc]

Here's some more video on ダルビッシュ有:




FYI: "Sanshin!" means ”Strikeout!"

[Lose Remerswaal]

Let's say the Sox have an interest and come calling on Darvish. I have to believe he contacts Matsuzaka and Okajima and asks about their experiences in Boston and as members of the Red Sox. Both have been a part of World Championship teams and both have also had a pretty good look at how difficult it can get when things don't go well. I wonder what influence (if any) those two pitchers may have on any potential decision by Darvish as to whether he comes to Boston or not.

And he can contact Fukodome about Chicago, which didn't end up so well.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Let's say the Sox have an interest and come calling on Darvish. I have to believe he contacts Matsuzaka and Okajima and asks about their experiences in Boston and as members of the Red Sox. Both have been a part of World Championship teams and both have also had a pretty good look at how difficult it can get when things don't go well. I wonder what influence (if any) those two pitchers may have on any potential decision by Darvish as to whether he comes to Boston or not.

This is mitigated quite a bit by the fact that if the Red Sox win the bidding, he can't negotiate with another team and either signs with the Sox or goes back to Japan. We saw how well that threat worked for Matsuzaka when the Sox and Boras started bumping heads about his contract.

[PrometheusWakefield]

Doesnt matter. Nippon Ham will decide where he goes. Postings always go to the highest bidder.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Let's say the Sox have an interest and come calling on Darvish. I have to believe he contacts Matsuzaka and Okajima and asks about their experiences in Boston and as members of the Red Sox. Both have been a part of World Championship teams and both have also had a pretty good look at how difficult it can get when things don't go well. I wonder what influence (if any) those two pitchers may have on any potential decision by Darvish as to whether he comes to Boston or not.

But Darvish can't control where he goes once he opts to be posted, so whatever influence they might have doesn't mean a hell of a lot anyway. The team that bids highest gets him, period. If the Red Sox win the bid, it's either Yu pitches for them in 2012 or he waits another year until he's a Japanese free agent and can come over without being posted. And if he decides Boston isn't for him, he has to go back to Japan with the knowledge/guilt that he's costing his old team millions of dollars in posting fees by staying. Wasn't that part of the leverage the Sox had on Daisuke when they called his and Boras' bluff about walking away...that he wasn't just giving up a chance to play in the Majors, but he was costing Seibu $51,111,111 also.

[Sprowl]

Here's some more video on...

ッシ

Thanks for the video. The Darvish smileys are great too.

[StuckOnYouk]

I think the Yankees are going to make a major push for him.

Here are their current starting pitchers under contract:

CC (31)
AJ (35)
Nova (25)
Hughes(25)
?

You have a top starter who is getting older and heavier and appeared to show some wear and tear down the stretch.
You have an old guy who's playing out his final years just hoping to post an era in the high 4's
You have a young starter who did very well and outperformed his periperhals. Frankly I'd be suprised if he puts up an ERA in the 3's next year. He's really a #3 in my eyes.
And then you have a complete mystery. A guy who only appears to be able to pitch well when he's coming out of the pen.
And then you have who?

Down on the farm they have Baneuelos and Betances who are likely 2 years away from making any serious contributions as an SP. And unless they get Wilson, this FA class of pitchers isn't very good at all. And Wilson ain't no pup. I can see him performing his contract worth for a couple of years, but honestly I just can't see him in pinstripes.


According to Cots, the Yankees have 175 mil committed to 2012 already once they pick up Cano's option and if they pick up Swisher's option. That's not including arb cases with Martin, Hughes, Joba, Logan, Gardner and Robertson. What would that cost them, another 10-15 mil? Putting that at worst around 190 and 17 mil under what they spent in 2011?

I know they have a few other holes to fill but nothing serious. I think they go ahead and make the major push for Darvish and I'd be suprised if they don't get him quite honestly. Look what happened when they missed out on Lee last year. Cashman was relaxed but the ownership freaked and signed Soriano to a laughable deal.

This may be an instance where even if Cashman doesn't want him badly, ownership will force him to post 50 mil.

[ThatsMyPeskyPole]

If sox want to spend the money go for it but Asian players don't live up to hype.

[mpjc]

Doesnt matter. Nippon Ham will decide where he goes. Postings always go to the highest bidder.

Good thing. I guess all the recent news would suggest an enormous culture shock after playing in Japan.

[BoSox Rule]

If the Red Sox win the bid, it's either Yu pitches for them in 2012 or he waits another year until he's a Japanese free agent and can come over without being posted

He's a FA over there next year but I'm pretty sure he can't come over here for another two without being posted.

[Savin Hillbilly]

If sox want to spend the money go for it but Asian players don't live up to hype.

I sincerely hope this is satire, though if so, I think it's a couple of shades too subtle.

[Philip Jeff Frye]

Not to mention that a winning Darvish bid and subsequent contract negotiations would make the fan base forget about the collapse.

Why?

We're going to be hearing about this collapse until we win another World Series. Signing some guy most fans have never heard of, who will be immediately compared to the frustrating and ultimately disappointing Matsuzaka, is not going to change anything in that regard. Hell, they could sign Pujols and Fielder and we'd still be hearing about it.

Edited by Philip Jeff Frye, 27 October 2011 - 07:34 PM.

[glennhoffmania]

Why does he always pitch out of the stretch?

[YTF]

But Darvish can't control where he goes once he opts to be posted, so whatever influence they might have doesn't mean a hell of a lot anyway. The team that bids highest gets him, period. If the Red Sox win the bid, it's either Yu pitches for them in 2012 or he waits another year until he's a Japanese free agent and can come over without being posted. And if he decides Boston isn't for him, he has to go back to Japan with the knowledge/guilt that he's costing his old team millions of dollars in posting fees by staying. Wasn't that part of the leverage the Sox had on Daisuke when they called his and Boras' bluff about walking away...that he wasn't just giving up a chance to play in the Majors, but he was costing Seibu $51,111,111 also.

True enough my bad, but perhaps it influences his decision whether or not to opt.. Most likely it won't with the amount of $$$ on the line.

[BosRedSox5]

Why does he always pitch out of the stretch?

As we've seen with Dice-K, in Japanese culture it's considered extremely impolite to record an out before the first baserunner reaches safely.

[JimD]

Any worries about the fact that his average pitches per start this season was 121? Even with the once-per week pitching regimen over there, that concerns me.

[mabrowndog]

He's much bigger than Matsuzaka and presumably has proportionately larger hands, but it seems like they should make sure the next luxury import can throw his pitches with an American baseball.

This is the least of my worries. I'm far more concerned with how Darvish would adjust socially, culturally, mentally and emotionally to pitching in the majors half a world away from home in front of the most hypercritical fan base on the planet.

[flymrfreakjar]

Why does he always pitch out of the stretch?

The important thing is that we get/force him to stop, and f*ck him up in the process.

[BosRedSox5]

This is the least of my worries. I'm far more concerned with how Darvish would adjust socially, culturally, mentally and emotionally to pitching in the majors half a world away from home in front of the most hypercritical fan base on the planet.

Exactly. Look at Matsuzaka. Dice-K's problems seem to be related to coachability and mental makeup. Just a breakdown of his contract stipulations should have been a tip off of his Diva status. Like Dice-K, Darvish seems to be physically suited to the job, but we'd need to be more concerned with the rest of him.

Edited by BosRedSox5, 27 October 2011 - 10:05 PM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

This is the least of my worries. I'm far more concerned with how Darvish would adjust socially, culturally, mentally and emotionally to pitching in the majors half a world away from home in front of the most hypercritical fan base on the planet.

The hypercritical fan base is one thing, but as was discussed in the SP thread, the "half a world away from home" factor is likely to be much less pronounced for him than it was for Matsuzaka. This is a kid whose dad went to high school in Massachusetts and then met his mom in college in Florida, a kid for whom English was probably a first language (even if it's long since become a secondary one). The US would be new territory for him, but not wholly foreign territory; he has roots here.

That's not to say the adjustment won't be real and challenging, but I still think we would have much less to worry about on that score this time around.

[JimBoSox9]

Exactly. Look at Matsuzaka. Dice-K's problems seem to be related to coachability and mental makeup. Just a breakdown of his contract stipulations should have been a tip off of his Diva status. Like Dice-K, Darvish seems to be physically suited to the job, but we'd need to be more concerned with the rest of him.

Totally disagree. Dice-K's problem was that he went from being a six-pitch guy with precise control (supposedly) to being a three-pitch guy with erratic command. The American ball always seemed to be too trite an explanation for his diminished arsenal (is it REALLY plausible that the Sox shelled out 100 million without understanding the ball differences or seeing him pitch with a MLB one?), but the coachability issues were likely nothing that couldn't have been cured with a little better stuff and command.

The Dice-K I got on the mound was not the Dice-K that was advertised, even in the good years. If the Sox are going to go for Darvish, I want them to know for damn sure why that was and how to prevent it from happening again.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

True enough my bad, but perhaps it influences his decision whether or not to opt.. Most likely it won't with the amount of $$ on the line.

He won't know who won the bidding until after he gets posted. So it won't have any effect at all. If he asks to get posted, he plays with the team that wins the bidding, or he plays in Japan. There are no other options. Unless he's going to let the experiences of three players in two cities keep him from coming to the US at all, I don't see it being relevant in the slightest. And he'd have to be nuts to let experiences from Boston and Chicago sour him on the majors in general.

[ForceAtHome]

The hypercritical fan base is one thing, but as was discussed in the SP thread, the "half a world away from home" factor is likely to be much less pronounced for him than it was for Matsuzaka. This is a kid whose dad went to high school in Massachusetts and then met his mom in college in Florida, a kid for whom English was probably a first language (even if it's long since become a secondary one). The US would be new territory for him, but not wholly foreign territory; he has roots here.

That's not to say the adjustment won't be real and challenging, but I still think we would have much less to worry about on that score this time around.

Yeah, I can't tell if everyone knows and that's why it's not being said, or if people don't realize... but Yu Darvish's father is Iranian. As noted above, his parents lived in the United States and met at college here. His father has even stated how much he loves New England.

Here are a couple of relevant quotes from an ESPN article on Darvish:

The Darvishes spoke English at home for the first three years of Yu's life until Farsad gained proficiency in Japanese. Yu visited Iran twice as a child but says the country has had no influence on him: "I'm Japanese. I grew up as a Japanese. I'm 100 percent Japanese."

For what it's worth, Farsad Darvish says Yu's background -- he has traveled to the States twice, and he has several aunts and uncles living in the U.S. -- would help him adjust culturally to the major leagues. "If he ever wants to go there, he'll be around the right people, the right connections," he says. "If Yu ever wants to maybe go to America, he will be ready."

Personality wise, he's very different from a Matsuzaka. He's very exuberant and I think much more likely to embrace American culture. I think he'd translate just fine to the US in terms of both pitching and culture, and hopefully time will tell. I'd love to see the Red Sox snag Darvish. Tangentially, another guy that I hope they are at least looking at is Hisashi Iwakuma, but I will post that relevant information in the starting pitching thread.

[OCD SS]

The Dice-K I got on the mound was not the Dice-K that was advertised, even in the good years. If the Sox are going to go for Darvish, I want them to know for damn sure why that was and how to prevent it from happening again.

Oh, you mean that you want the iron-clad guarantee of performance that comes with American baseball players?

I don't know how much "blame" can be laid at the feet of the scouts or over-arching process that went into the DiceK bid and subsequent contract as opposed to the player himself, but since the Sox actually did work with DiceK for the past 5 years I'm a bit more confident that they have a better sense of how some of the translations can be better managed, and what they should be looking for with different individuals.

The recent analysis on RLYW that tried to compare Darvish's NPB stats to those of other pitchers who have come over doesn't really account for NPB's switch to a new ball, which appears to have suppressed offense in recent years. The risk that's pointed out may very well be reflected in lower posting bids than Seibu received.

But the key to me is to have fans just fucking ignore the posting amount. This is a market of one for a high value asset (like art); the posting bid has to reflect any number of things that don't necessarily relate to the players on-field production (expected or otherwise; things like development and PR value to the NPB team, the shape of the starting pitching market in MLB, and the value saved on the contract for being the lone rights holder). The opportunity to straight up buy 25 year old talent that can go directly into the MLB rotation without having to win an open bidding war, when the rest of the pitching market is weak and the upside potential is great (if also admittedly risky), seems too good to lose out on over hemming and hawing. If the Sox are not going to be taxed (CBT) on the posting fee so signing the player affects the upper payroll limit less, it gets more tantalizing. This part of the expenditure can just as easily be filed away as a something like a roving instructor's salary, or some other expenditure that know one gets up in arms over, or feels betrayed by when things don't work out as expected.

[bakahump]

If the Sox wouldnt be taxed...then obviously neither would the Yankees. And that has a lot more value to them.

Sure Darvish Seems great...and may be great. We are all acting like if we bid its a fait accompli that we get him.

The Yankees could say "Screw it....65,000,000 posting fee" and blow everyone out of the water.

No luxury tax....and another rotation slot filled....perhaps by a really good player.

Or they could spend the same money (per year) on Maholm. Who would you pick.

[Kid T]

Exactly. Look at Matsuzaka. Dice-K's problems seem to be related to coachability and mental makeup. Just a breakdown of his contract stipulations should have been a tip off of his Diva status. Like Dice-K, Darvish seems to be physically suited to the job, but we'd need to be more concerned with the rest of him.

Gross generalizations IMO. He didn't have problems with mental makeup or coachability in 2007 or 2008.

I prefer to believe Valentine's attributions as a lack of assistance in helping him bridge the cultural gap (where pitching to a full count was honorable), and his approach in Japan (where he pitched off his offspeed stuff) as opposed to here in the US (where he was asked to pitch off his fastball).

[mpjc]

Thanks for the video. The Darvish smileys are great too.

How could I neglect to post his ad for canned fruit-shochu cocktails? ツ

[Toe Nash]

If you think Dice-K failed because he was tough to coach, hard-headed, or even shy, how can you say "Darvish's parents lived in the US and he's more 'exuberant' so he'll make the transition fine?" We don't really know what went wrong with Dice-K beyond injury, even though he has been here for years. He could have had problems adjusting to the new ball, the new umpires, the new hitters, the new schedule, or yes, the new team and culture. Why would someone on a message board even guess that Darvish is better-suited to the US just because he's more outgoing? It's still an incredible change even if his personality, which we really know little about, fits.

Hopefully the Red Sox will have done scouting and have a more educated analysis as to how well he'll fare here before putting in a huge bid (Are they allowed to interview him? Probably not, right?). But it's still a big gamble and as I noted in the other thread I'd much rather wait a year when it's more of buyers' market, and the pitchers in the market have years of MLB experience.

[maufman]

How many years of club control does Nippon Ham have left?

Seibu had two years of control left, so Dice-K had little leverage with the Sox. If Darvish is a free man after 2012, he might not accept as steep a discount as Dice-K did.

MLB Trade Rumors suggesting the total cost for Darvish will be higher than anyone here is predicting ($45mm post, $70mm contract).

[YTF]

He won't know who won the bidding until after he gets posted. So it won't have any effect at all. If he asks to get posted, he plays with the team that wins the bidding, or he plays in Japan. There are no other options. Unless he's going to let the experiences of three players in two cities keep him from coming to the US at all, I don't see it being relevant in the slightest. And he'd have to be nuts to let experiences from Boston and Chicago sour him on the majors in general.

My use of the word opt in the post you quoted was not meant to imply he had any options in the matter once he was posted, but rather in response to Red (S)Hawks Fan mentioning whether he may opt to be posted or not. If he is close to being a true free agent and can forgo the posting process in a couple of years he may see some advantage or value to having an open process of offers and negotiations with several large market/large payroll teams and being able to choose the team he would like to play for. And even if he does opt to be posted, I would think it would only be natural to get feed back from a few high profile Japanese players who have played here, especially those who have gone through the process.

[OCD SS]

How many years of club control does Nippon Ham have left?

Seibu had two years of control left, so Dice-K had little leverage with the Sox. If Darvish is a free man after 2012, he might not accept as steep a discount as Dice-K did.

MLB Trade Rumors suggesting the total cost for Darvish will be higher than anyone here is predicting ($45mm post, $70mm contract).

I've been assuming ~$120M (but a 50/50 split of posting and salary). I saw that Darvish is also making more per season (~$6M), which is also quite a bit more than DiceK did with Seibu (~$3M IIRC) so Darvish also won't see quite the bump in income that DiceK did anyway. The flip side is that the yearly cost for a mediocre starting pitcher has risen as well. When the Sox signed DiceK you also saw Ted Lilly and Gil Meche sign for around $11M/yr. Darvish can probably expect to see a higher starting wage as well.

[EpsteinsGorillaSuit]

What is the disincentive for Toronto or Tampa to bid extremely high in the posting process ($60M? $75M?) without having any intention of signing Darvish, just to keep him from New York or Boston? In Tampa's case, the move would also keep a perceived ace-level pitcher off the market as they try to get as big a haul for trading Shields as possible.

Such a move could destroy the posting process as in its current form, but it would take time for the system to adjust. I find the posting system completely absurd, and a huge detriment to the talented players in the Japanese leagues.

This move would also demonstrate just how unfair the posting system to the Japanese players compared to how other international players are compensated, though that certainly wouldn't be the motivation if it actually happened.

[Kevin Jewkilis]

What is the disincentive for Toronto or Tampa to bid extremely high in the posting process ($60M? $75M?) without having any intention of signing Darvish, just to keep him from New York or Boston? In Tampa's case, the move would also keep a perceived ace-level pitcher off the market as they try to get as big a haul for trading Shields as possible.

Such a move could destroy the posting process as in its current form, but it would take time for the system to adjust. I find the posting system completely absurd, and a huge detriment to the talented players in the Japanese leagues.

This move would also demonstrate just how unfair the posting system to the Japanese players compared to how other international players are compensated, though that certainly wouldn't be the motivation if it actually happened.

If the bid isn't in good faith it will be rejected.

[EpsteinsGorillaSuit]

Would a Toronto bid at $60M be considered so absurd to be considered "not in good faith"? The Matsuzaka bid was considered absurdly high at the time, roughly $10M above competing ones, and 3-5x what the Mariners had paid for Ichiro and Dodgers had paid for Ishii several years earlier.

Another way to ask the question - if a team played their intentions close to the vest and ultimately did not sign Darvish, would MLB/Nippon allow him to be posted again this offseason?

[OCD SS]

Would a Toronto bid at $60M be considered so absurd to be considered "not in good faith"? The Matsuzaka bid was considered absurdly high at the time, roughly $10M above competing ones, and 3-5x what the Mariners had paid for Ichiro and Dodgers had paid for Ishii several years earlier.

Another way to ask the question - if a team played their intentions close to the vest and ultimately did not sign Darvish, would MLB/Nippon allow him to be posted again this offseason?

It probably depends; Darvish's agent could file a grievance with Bud saying the negotiations were not in good faith, bit OTOH the SS Oakland won the rights to last offseason went back to Japan.

[ForceAtHome]

It probably depends; Darvish's agent could file a grievance with Bud saying the negotiations were not in good faith, bit OTOH the SS Oakland won the rights to last offseason went back to Japan.

Unless I'm mistaken, I think you're referring to SP Hisashi Iwakuma. Oakland bid $19.1m on his rights, but ultimately could not agree on a contract. He pitched in Japan this year but is allegedly looking to come to MLB this off season as a free agent. I'm hoping the Red Sox make a pitch for him, at least.

[Drek717]

I've been assuming ~$120M (but a 50/50 split of posting and salary). I saw that Darvish is also making more per season (~$6M), which is also quite a bit more than DiceK did with Seibu (~$3M IIRC) so Darvish also won't see quite the bump in income that DiceK did anyway. The flip side is that the yearly cost for a mediocre starting pitcher has risen as well. When the Sox signed DiceK you also saw Ted Lilly and Gil Meche sign for around $11M/yr. Darvish can probably expect to see a higher starting wage as well.

All these reasons sound like a good argument to me as to why the posting fee might be a lot lower than people expect. If you've got to pay Darvish handsomely for his services regardless then the posting fee you pay will need to reflect that for most teams.

Knowing that he will have a stronger bargaining position than Matsuzaka, with a precedent set last year of a player failing to reach a deal and returning to Japan, will Darvish be cheaper than CJ Wilson or Mark Buehrle? Younger obviously, but probably not cheaper, unless you'll be at or just over the luxury tax threshold. He's also more boom/bust than either of them.

So if you're say Texas, Anaheim, either Chicago team, etc. and you want to add a quality pitcher in the off-season why bet on getting Darvish when you could instead just put a little more money in the offer to Wilson?

Boston, Philly, and the Yankees are the ones that see the most financial savings through pursuing Darvish.

[OCD SS]

So if you're say Texas, Anaheim, either Chicago team, etc. and you want to add a quality pitcher in the off-season why bet on getting Darvish when you could instead just put a little more money in the offer to Wilson?

Because if one of these teams wins the rights to Darvish, they can be pretty sure he's going to pitch for them; they don't have to be worried about someone else stepping in over-bidding them, or the player just flat out preferring to play in another locale. If one of NY/ Boston win his rights that still leaves the other to turn their pocket books to Wilson (I'm assuming that Philly isn't in the market for another expensive starter).

[PrometheusWakefield]

All these reasons sound like a good argument to me as to why the posting fee might be a lot lower than people expect. If you've got to pay Darvish handsomely for his services regardless then the posting fee you pay will need to reflect that for most teams.

Eh.... I don't think so. The way this got resolved last time is that one team (us) had a significantly different assessment of Dice-K's value than the rest of the bidders. I'm sure that will happen again. If the current CW is that Darvish will get 50-60 million I would suspect one outlier will decide he's worth substantially more and that team will get him.

[soxfan121]

Responding to a Darvish question from the Valentine thread where I asked what BV was doing in Japan and speculating on him bringing back a JPL pitcher.

He was at a "charity event". As for the bolded part..what?

Jeff Passan/Yahoo Sports report from 15-Nov.

Until recently, the question of whether Darvish is going to post always has been more of a when than an if. Players of his caliber no longer spend their entire careers in Japan, and that rationale remains true for those who believe the questions about Darvish’s arrival are nothing more than a smokescreen to gin up leverage after bidding.

“He’s coming,” said one general manager whose team has scouted Darvish for years and plans to place a bid if he posts. “The money is too good. He makes [$7 million] there. He’ll be guaranteed $50 or $60 million here.”

Others are no longer certain.

“I’m concerned we’re not going to see him for a few more years,” said another GM in a similar position. “He’s not your average Japanese player. I get the impression he wants to stand for something.”

Whether that means taking on the posting system or working for other changes in a labor structure that calls for long hours of training, subservience to the team and ownership controlling players for nearly a decade, it’s a difficult position to take publicly in a country that has labeled such ballplayers as wagamama – selfish.

[reggiecleveland]

The important thing is that we get/force him to stop, and f*ck him up in the process.

And stop bowing. A man doesn't bow!