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[JMDurron]

The 2008 Draft

Historically, the Red Sox had 2 1st round draft picks in the 2008 draft. The standard pick (#30) was used on Casey Kelly. There was also a supplemental pick from the departure of Eric Gagne, which was used on Bryan Price.

I have only 1 first round pick, #30 overall.

With the 30th overall selection, I select Alex Avila. Avila will first appear in 2009.

2008 - 2009 Roster Moves are next.

[JMDurron]

2008 - 2009 Roster Moves, Part I

Departures

None.

Yep, none.

Draft Pick Compensation

None

Callups

Tommy Hanson, Jordan Zimmermann, Andrew Bailey, and Alex Avila join the party.

They join historical callups Daniel Bard and Josh Reddick.

0 Out, 6 in. More fun with trades!

Positional Depth Summary

Catcher - Brian McCann (145/130), Geovany Soto (102/75), Ryan Doumit (75/83), Alex Avila (29/148). McCann is the starter, Soto is the backup. Doumit is heading into "somewhat useful but not permanently on the 25-man utility player" territory. I originally drafted him as a useful backup player, so I'm not letting myself get too caught up in his career trajectory. Alex Avila is getting his September cup of coffee only.

First Base - Albert Pujols (160/189), Kevin Youkilis (136/145), Ryan Doumit. Pujols is the starter, Youkilis is the DH, and if I don't want to use a roster spot on Doumit, I need to train up one of Lowrie/Zobrist at 1B.

Second Base - Dustin Pedroia (154/110), Ben Zobrist (152/149), Skip Schumaker (153/97), Jed Lowrie (32/21). Pedroia is the starter, Zobrist is the jack-of-all-trades backup who plays A TON. Schumaker is in AAA, and Lowrie is crippled for most of the season. This makes him easily dealt with in the narrative, but I may try to find roster space for him in the simulation, taking 1B/3B with Zobrist backing up 2B/SS. We'll see on that one.

Shortstop - Hanley Ramirez (151/143), Ben Zobrist, Jed Lowrie. Pretty straightforward here, with Hanley starting and Zobrist backing up and getting defensive replacement innings. It would be nice if one of them could not suck defensively this season.

Third Base - Evan Longoria (157/133), David Wright (144/119), Kevin Youkilis, Jed Lowrie, Ben Zobrist. Longoria is now the starter, David Wright is on the trading block. Youkilis covers some from the DH spot, and Zobrist backs up in general, with Lowrie available in emergencies.

Left Field - Matt Holliday (156/134), Jacoby Ellsbury (152/97), Carlos Gonzalez (89/118), Skip Schumaker, Brandon Moss (133/72), Josh Reddick (27/39) - Holliday is the current starter in LF, Ellsbury is the former 5th OFer on the bubble with Carlos Gonzalez coming up with 5th OFer type playing time requirements. Schumaker, Moss, and Reddick aren't really worth being worried about. This relates to my plans for CF, but given that I found 100 games apiece for my 4th and 5th OFers last season, I should be able to leave Holliday as the starter, make Ellsbury the 4th OFer/defensive replacement, and still give Gonzalez plenty of PAs throughout the season. Once again, Jed Lowrie appears to be the victim here, but his injury lets me get away with it, so I can fit two OFers on my bench.

Center Field - Matt Kemp (159/124), Grady Sizemore (106/110), Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Gonzalez, Skip Schumaker - Kemp is my projected starter, with Ellsbury/Gonzalez backing up, Schumaker in AAA, and Grady Sizemore on the trading block.

Right Field - Andre Ethier (160/131), Carlos Gonzalez, Skip Schumaker, Brandon Moss, Josh Reddick - Ethier starts, Gonzalez backs up, Schumaker, Moss, and Reddick are AAA depth.

Starting Pitching Depth Summary

Dan Haren (229.1/142), Tim Lincecum (225.1/173), Matt Cain (217.2/143), Jon Lester (203.1/138), Cole Hamels (193.2/92), Clayton Kershaw (171/143), Tommy Hanson (127.2/143), Clay Buchholz (92/112), Jordan Zimmermann (91.1/92).

So, 9 is something of a crowd. A couple of these decisions are relatively easy, one of which is choosing between the new guys. I can keep one "stashed" in AAA as the 6th man/Sep callup, and between the two, Tommy Hanson is preferable to Zimmermann. Among the incumbents, Dan Haren is the only one on the final year of his deal, and his sim performance has been insufficient to get me Type A compensation, even if the draft advantage was still strongly in play, which it is not. So, Haren and Zimmermann head onto the trade block, and Hanson is stashed in AAA as the 6th starter. That gets me down to 6.

This is where I have to make a call on Clay Buchholz. Only in 2010 is he good enough to crack the top 5 in the rotation, and he's not durable enough in 2009 or 2011 to be a reliable contributor. It's tough, but Buchholz is on the block as well, leaving a rotation of Lincecum - Cain - Lester - Hamels - Kershaw, with Hanson the 6th man in AAA.

Bullpen Depth Summary

Once, again, nobody left, so I have the 7 from 2008 (Broxton, Masterson, Papelbon, Okajima, Romo, Street, Ziegler), plus David Robertson from AAA making 8. I also have Daniel Bard and Andrew Bailey joining the mix. On top of those 10, Casey Janssen is back from his lost season due to injury. That makes 11 men for 7 spots, although one of Bard/Bailey can be stashed.

None of the current crew are nearing the end of their deals, so that doesn't make for a tiebreaker. I am left with current year performance, future performance, and future flexibility as determining factors. Since I can stash one of the 11 (Bailey is superior to Bard), that gets me down to 10 for 7 spots. Using current year performance, Casey Janssen is the weak link. He goes onto the block, and I am down to 9. In terms of future performance, there are two relievers on staff for whom 2009 shall be their last excellent seasons - Jonathan Broxton and Hideki Okajima. Future flexibility means that I want to keep Justin Masterson, because I think I can sneak him into the 2011 rotation.

So, Janssen, Broxton, and Okajima go onto the block, Bailey gets stashed as the 1st callup, and I roll with Zielger-Street-Romo-Robertson-Papelbon-Masterson-Bard.

Final Trading Block

3B David Wright, CF Grady Sizemore, SP Dan Haren, SP Jordan Zimmermann, SP Clay Buchholz, RP Casey Janssen, RP Jonathan Broxton, RP Hideki Okajima.

I have no idea what I am seeking, besides possibly future prospects.

The trade market post is next.

[JMDurron]

2008 - 2009 Trade Market

What does one get for the franchise that has everything?

My trade chits are 3B David Wright, CF Grady Sizemore, SP Dan Haren, SP Jordan Zimmermann, SP Clay Buchholz, RP Casey Janssen, RP Jonathan Broxton, and RP Hideki Okajima.

I am seeking...well, frankly, I have no idea what I am seeking. Thus, my first move is to go into OOTP's "Shop a Player" function and see what I get offered for my 3 majors pieces - Wright, Sizemore, and Haren.

I start with David Wright. The possibilities are almost endless here. Offers include Kendry Morales, Adrian Gonzalez, Martin Prado, Brian Roberts, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard (heh), Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey, and Justin Upton. For one year of David Wright?

Buster Posey is the most attractive option here, although both Adrian Gonzalez and Justin Upton are interesting, I need players who extend years of control further along than my current options. Posey only gets a cup of coffee in 2009, then plays a majority, but not entirety of the 2010 season, then gets hurt in 2011. That works pretty perfectly with a 2009 C setup of McCann-Soto, followed by McCann-Posey (Soto traded), then McCann-Avila while Posey is injured, since I'm using real games played for my roster projections even though he won't be injured (at least not automatically) in the OOTP sim. I would obviously sweeten his deal beyond a straight "Wright for Posey" swap, because even though Posey hasn't played a MLB game yet in the 2009 preseason, that's just a stupid trade. 1 year of Wright for 6 years of Posey?

Sizemore provides less interesting options, aside from Jay Bruce. Sizemore looks to be useful only for snagging some future prospects.

Haren is another case where the possibilities are nearly endless. Posey is available through this route as well, as is Justin Upton, Chase Utley, Miguel Montero, Ryan Zimmerman, Robinson Cano, and Prince Fielder. I have no idea WTF is up with OOTP's defensive ratings, because Prince Fielder is rated as a better defensive 1B than Kevin Youkilis.

Either Chase Utley or Robinson Cano would most likely be an offensive upgrade over Dustin Pedroia at 2B, but frankly, my defense is bad enough already. I'm also, personally somewhat attached to Pedroia and don't want him leaving the franchise. Since I'm already targeting Posey via Wright, this would be redundant, as would Montero. Longoria trumps (or at least equals) Zimmerman in my mind, so he's out as well. Justin Upton requires too much playing time before he busts out in 2011, which OOTP won't account for anyway. This leaves Prince Fielder as a DH alternative to Kevin Youkilis.

There are four things that come to mind when comparing Fielder and Youkilis. The first is that, while both are under control for the same in OOTP (Fielder got full-time play in 2005 instead of his historical part-time play, so he's a FA after 2010), Fielder provides two full, healthy seasons in 2009-2010, while Kevin Youkilis has an injury in 2010 creeping up. The second factor is Youkilis' continual failure to contribute in October in OOTP, for whatever reason. The third factor is the general lack of LHH power in my lineup, with Pujols, Pedroia, Hanley, Longoria, Kemp, and Holliday all hitting from the right side. Youkilis makes 7, with only Ethier and McCann hitting from the left side of the plate. Given that I think OOTP's random platoon splits might be overly punishing RHH vs RHP, there may be a specific in-game benefit to swapping Youk out for Fielder. The 4th and final factor is that, quite honestly, after how the 2010 and 2011 real Red Sox seasons have gone, I have no attachment to Kevin Youkilis at all. He has trouble staying healthy, and he's not a personality (at least in terms of what is outwardly presented) that is particularly enjoyable to follow. That doesn't make me want to get rid of him, but that makes him not a Pedroia-esque "I must keep him" guy to me.

So, Dan Haren is going to the Milwaukee Brewers for Prince Fielder, who shall become my DH, so now Youkilis has to go. The San Francisco Giants just happen to be playing the 2009 version of Jason Giambi as their primary 1B at the moment, so Youkilis makes a perfect add-in to make the Buster Posey trade fair in my mind.

I trade Dan Haren to the Milwaukee Brewers for Prince Fielder.

I trade David Wright and Kevin Youkilis to the San Francisco Giants for Buster Posey. Apparently, in OOTP, in the 2008/2009 offseason, Pablo Sandoval is considered a C. Well, now the Giants are stuck with him there, with Wright at 3B.

Now it's time to go prospect hunting. Looking at trading Sizemore to his original Indians, I only see Lonnie Chisenhall as a 2011 Top Prospect available prior to the 2009 season. I was rather hoping for someone who had not played in 2011, particularly at a blocked position like 3B. I'm going to take a look at my other options to see if their original teams might have some interesting options, and perhaps Sizemore can headline a major deal for multiple prospects.

Moving onto Jordan Zimmermann, I find the perfect option on his original team in C prospect Derek Norris. Norris was drafted in 2007, and only cracked the BA top 100 prospect list in 2010. He and Zimmermann seem like a fair match, particularly at this point in time.

I trade Jordan Zimmermann to the Washington Natinals for C prospect Derek Norris (2011 #72 prospect).

Obviously this doesn't work for Clay Buchholz or Hideki Okajima, so I move onto Casey Janssen. All of the Blue Jays' 2011 top prospects came from outside of the organization. Janssen is with Sizemore in the "find something interesting elsewhere" pile.

For Jonathan Broxton, time to look at what the Dodgers might be able to offer. SS prospect Dee Gordon immediately pops up, having been drafted in 2008. He only hits the BA Top 100 list in 2010 as well, so he should be easily obtainable. Unlike in the case of Zimmermann, I am only trading a reliever instead of a SP, and Broxton has not been dominant for me in the OOTP sim. I will toss in Casey Janssen to even things out a bit.

I trade Jonathan Broxton and Casey Janssen to the Los Angels Dodgers for SS prospect Dee Gordon (2011 BA #26 prospect).

This leaves me with Grady Sizemore, Clay Buchholz, and Hideki Okajima still to trade. This should make for a pretty attractive package, given Sizemore's age (27) and track record to date. A 27-year-old CF whose OPS has never dipped below .838?

It's a little tougher when my net is basically being cast around the entire universe of available prospects between 2008 and 2009, preferably looking for someone who doesn't play much (if at all) prior to 2012. At most, I'd want someone who gets a cup of coffee in 2011 with the potential to fill a position of need in 2012. My package, IMO, is worthy of a stud prospect, but there aren't many stud prospects from pre-2009 who didn't either play in the MLB prior to 2011 (or played significantly during 2011), or flame out entirely.

Oddly enough, the only obvious need I see beyond 2011 is at DH, depending on Freddie Freeman's development. That thought presents a potential solution. The only way a player could really be a stud prospect from 2008-2009 who did not flame out, without already being a star in 2011 would be if that player was extremely young. My slight potential need for a masher means that I might be looking for a player of limited defensive ability. I know of a team with such a prospect after 2008, who could be expected to be ready to mash some baseballs in 2012, and who only gets a brief MLB stint in 2011 that I can manage. That team currently has a starting OF of Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, and Willie Bloomquist, and therefore might jump at the chance to add Sizemore. Buchholz might also be of some value to this team due to the OOTP injury settings not necessarily ruining his 2009 and 2011 seasons, and I'm actually fine with that due to how ridiculously nerfed they have been in this simulation.

I trade Grady Sizemore, Clay Buchholz, and Hideki Okajima to the New York Yankees for C/DH prospect Jesus Montero (2011 BA #3 prospect). I think it's fitting that I trade for him just as I ship out Dan Haren.

I believe that is everyone, 2008-2009 Roster Moves Part II is next.

[JMDurron]

2008 - 2009 Roster Moves, Part II

Post-Trade Roster Review

SP - Lincecum, Cain, Lester, Hamels, Kershaw, Hanson (AAA)
RP - Masterson, Bailey, Ziegler, Papelbon, Street, Robertson, Romo, Bard (AAA)

You may notice that I flipped between Bailey and Bard for the AAA "8th reliever" spot. That is because since Bailey threw more IP in 2009 historically, it seems slightly more wrong for me to "stash" him than Bard, when there really is no meaningful difference, particularly if any one of the 7 MLB relievers struggle in the OOTP sim. I want to give the guy who historically threw more innings at least a fair chance to actually throw more innings relative to Bard.

C - McCann, Soto, Doumit (AAA), Avila (AAA), Posey (AAA)
1B - Pujols, Fielder, Zobrist (forced to learn), Doumit (AAA)
2B - Pedroia, Zobrist, Schumaker (AAA), Lowrie (AAA/DL)
SS - Hanley, Zobrist, Lowrie (AAA/DL)
3B - Longoria, Zobrist (forced), Lowrie (AAA/DL)
LF - Holliday, Ellsbury, Gonzalez, Schumaker (AAA), Moss (AAA), Reddick (AAA)
CF - Kemp, Ellsbury, Gonzalez, Schumaker (AAA)
RF - Ethier, Gonzalez, Schumaker (AAA), Moss (AAA), Reddick (AAA)

In terms of the OOTP sim, Lowrie is on hot standby for any IF injury, or any struggles by either of Ellsbury or Gonzalez. His injury makes this a non-issue in the narrative.

Historical Transactions

I do not trade for Ramon Ramirez, Paul Byrd, Adam LaRoche, Victor Martinez, Casey Kotchman, or Billy Wagner.

I do not sign Junichi Tazawa, Josh Bard, Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Nick Green, Rocco Baldelli, Mark Kotsay, Takashi Saito, or Jason Varitek.

I do sign Jose Iglesias as an amateur FA.

The 2009 season is next.

[JMDurron]

The 2009 Season

Position Players

C: Brian McCann over Jason Varitek (80 -> 114). Geovany Soto (75) backs up.
1B: Albert Pujols over Kevin Youkilis (145 -> 189). Ben Zobrist (149) backs up.
2B: Dustin Pedroia (110). Zobrist backs up.
SS: Hanley Ramirez over Nick Green (71 -> 143). Zobrist backs up.
3B: Evan Longoria over Mike Lowell (106 -> 133). Zobrist backs up.
LF: Matt Holliday over Jason Bay (134 -> 134). Jacoby Ellsbury (97) backs up. Carlos Gonzalez (118) is behind Ellsbury.
CF: Matt Kemp over Jacoby Ellsbury (97 -> 124). Ellsbury backs up, Gonzalez after him.
RF: Andre Ethier over JD Drew (133 -> 131). Gonzalez backs up.
DH: Prince Fielder over David Ortiz (101 -> 166). Zobrist backs up.

Backups

Geovany Soto - C
Ben Zobrist - 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, DH
Jacoby Ellsbury - LF, CF
Carlos Gonzalez - LF, CF, RF

Starting Pitchers

Tim Lincecum (225.1/173)
Matt Cain (217.2/143)
Jon Lester (203.1/138)
Cole Hamels (192.2/92)
Clayton Kershaw (171/143)

Tommy Hanson (127.2/143) - 6th starter in AAA

The Bullpen

Justin Masterson (129.1/100) - This was divided between starting and relieving. He is only a reliever in this scenario (don't worry, I have a plan that is totally and completely convenient for me. I call it "Deus Ex Masterson".), therefore his IP count goes down, and his ERA+ goes up, as he was more effective as a reliever in 2009
Andrew Bailey (83.1/242)
Brad Ziegler (73.1/145)
Jonathan Papelbon (68/254)
Huston Street (61.2/154)
David Robertson (43.2/140)
Sergio Romo (34/109)

The Pawtucket Shuttle

Situational Callups - Jed Lowrie (Sim only), Ryan Doumit, Tommy Hanson, Daniel Bard, Skip Schumaker, Brandon Moss

Cup of Coffee/No Time - Jed Lowrie (Narrative), Josh Reddick, Buster Posey, Alex Avila

Season Results

Historically, the 2009 Red Sox finished 2nd in the AL East, 8 games behind the Yankees. They won the Wild Card by 8 games over the Texas Rangers, but were swept in the ALDS by the Angels.

Offensively, what can one say? The only mathematical downgrade is RF, which is really essentially equal. 2B and LF are also equivalent. 3B and CF could be called significant upgrades, while C, 1B, SS, and DH are all huge upgrades. The bench bats are a tad less potential this time around, but so long as Soto's starts are against LHP, that should be somewhat mitigated.

Defensively, C is an upgrade with McCann and Soto over an injured Varitek and Victor Martinez. 1B should be a wash. 2B is obvious. At SS, Nick Green and Hanley Ramirez are roughly equivalent. 3B is a huge upgrade with Longoria over an ailing Lowell. LF is a downgrade from Jason Bay to Matt Holliday, but liberal use of Ellsbury late in game should help with that. CF is an upgrade, with Ellsbury not really having learned the angles yet in 2009. RF is a significant defensive downgrade from Drew to Ethier, hopefully Gonzalez can help to mitigate that as a defensive replacement.

The starting rotation actually features a below-average performance! It's like having an actual 5th starter again. I forgot what that was like. Of course, instead of just having one ace-caliber pitcher in front of that starter, there are 4 aces. Brad Penny is nowhere to be found.

It's getting kind of boring to describe the bullpen. It is awesome. Again. Obviously there will be some individual variation with the actual numbers they put up in a different environment, but with the general level of performance should translate.

This time, the rather feisty 2009 Yankees spark the Red Sox to come out firing to start the season. Prince Fielder is primed to prove that he is a better new arrival than his rival to the south, Mark Teixeira. The Red Sox staff is tired of hearing about how Sabathia and Burnett are going to return the Yankees to their former glory. The bullpen, along with the rest of America, wonders when Mariano Rivera is going to slow down. It should be any day now! It's the Yankees signings vs the Red Sox trades, and the game is on.

The teams run neck and neck for the AL East crown into September, crushing the rest of the AL like the bugs that they are in a frantic effort to secure the bragging rights of the division title. Or so it seems to the fans, anyway. Ultimately, these two teams are the big kids on the block, despite the Angels putting up a respectable number of wins, and they are only really put to the test by each other. The teams end the season tied at 104 wins apiece (courtesy of the Rays giving a few wins back in divisional play), but the Yankees win the division due to head-to-head record, thanks to the balls falling in for them a couple times more than they did for the Red Sox.

Oddly enough, neither of the other historical AL playoff teams are altered by my rosters, so the ALDS features all 4 of the same teams, in the same matchups as were seen historically. The Twins don't bother demanding dinner from the Yankees first, as expected.

In the Sox-Angels ALDS, John Lackey starts the series by shutting down his former team, and the Angels defeat Tim Lincecum by a 1-0 score. Jered Weaver matches Matt Cain for 6 in Game 2, but with such a great bullpen, Terry Francona does not try to steal outs with Cain in the 7th, and hands the game over to the bullpen early, despite Cain only having allowed 1 run through 6. The bullpen holds the line long enough for Prince Fielder to blast a HR to take the lead in the 12th, and Papelbon shuts the door to tie the series. In Game 3, both Scott Kazmir and Jon Lester throw batting practice, but the Red Sox outslug the Angels to take a 2-1 series lead. Francona, with a game to spare and the Yankees lurking, goes with Clayton Kershaw instead of Tim Lincecum in Game 4, but John Lackey comes up big again, and the series is tied at 2 apiece. In Game 5, against all odds, Tim Lincecum does not have his best stuff, and the Angels win a hard-fought ALDS in 5 games. The Yankees proceed to defeat the Angels, and feast upon the flesh of the Phillies (Hamels is hardly a major loss in 2009) in the World Series.

The OOTP Sim is next.

[JMDurron]

2009 OOTP Season Simulation

Preseason Predictions



I've long since stopped getting excited about these "runs scored" projections. Those Mariners are going to be annoying again, with that Sabathia-Felix-Zambrano top of the rotation. The Yankees really do suck, but they suck so horribly and unrealistically that I can't even enjoy it! That is just so wrong.

Season Walkthrough

Spring training is spent giving Zobrist time at 1B/3B, and getting Ellsbury and Gonzalez acclimated to LF/RF instead of just CF. On March 17, Evan Longoria goes completely batshit insane during a brawl with the Angels, and ends up receiving a 14-game suspension, service to begin in the regular season. Yikes. Jacoby Ellsbury misses 2 weeks due to a hamstring injury, giving Carlos Gonzalez the leg up on the 4th OF position.

In the interest of giving Jed Lowrie a fair chance to show what he can do, OOTP gives me the opportunity to be a bit naughty via the reserve roster. Evan Longoria can be placed on the Reserve roster while games are played and have those games count against his suspension, so I can call up Lowrie to take his roster spot while Zobrist covers 3B.

Longoria is sorely missed during his obscenely long (seriously, somebody must have died or something) 14 game suspension, as the Red Sox drag themselves along to a 13-1 record to start the season.

The Red Sox end April at 17-5, leading the Blue Jays by 3 games for the AL East. The Red Sox have three hitters who end the month with an OPS above 1.000, yet no nominees for AL Batter of the Month. I investigate this, and the winner actually was...JD Drew of the Texas Rangers, with his 1.127 OPS in April. Thankfully, one of the 3 1.000+ OPS hitters was Ethier, so there's no much bitterness here. McCann tanks vs LHP quite quickly, and in comes Soto for the full platoon. Ellsbury is awful in limited action, but so was Lowrie during the Longoria suspension, so Ellsbury gets another look. In a sufficiently large sample (more than 10 IP in 1 month for a reliever), Jonathan Papelbon is abysmal, so he goes to AAA with Daniel Bard coming up to take his place. We'll be going year-to-year with your performance evaluations, Mr. Papelbon.

The Sox open May with 12 straight wins. They end the month at 42-9, leading the East by 14 games over the Blue Jays. Andrew Bailey, taking over the closer role from Papelbon, is the AL Pitcher of the Month. In 13 appearances, Bailey threw 14.1 IP, securing 9 saves and a 3-0 record. He held opposing hitters to a 0.98 WHIP and a 571 OPS against. He blew one save opportunity. Daniel Bard sucks in the bullpen as well, but in fewer than 10 IP, so he gets a tad more rope. Ellsbury keeps on sucking, so he goes down and Lowrie comes up. Soto slumps, so McCann's back in full-time. At some point in May, Dustin Pedroia was suspended mid-game, and somehow this led to the OOTP manager playing Prince Fielder at 2B. I guess Zobrist must have already come in for Hanley at SS, or something, but that's just an ugly thought.

I remember to set my no-DH lineups in June, I think I've remembered this 3 out of every 5 seasons so far.

The Red Sox open June with 17 consecutive wins. On June 23, Geovany Soto suffers "an "undisclosed injury while opening a package with a pair of scissors." I'm not kidding, that's what the news piece reads in OOTP. This game has some colorful elements to it. He will be out for a week, but I'm disinclined to be without a backup C for a week, so he goes to the 15-day DL to make room for Ryan Doumit.

The Red Sox end June with a 65-12 record. So far, the Red Sox have lost 5 games in April, 4 in May, and 3 in June. I approve of this trend. This translates into a 25.5 game lead over Toronto. Carlos Gonzalez is named the AL Rookie of the Month. Making the most of being the 4th OFer, Gonzalez posted a 368/427/897 line in 26 games, blasting 14 HRs. His only problem is that all of the other 3 OFers are playing well, so he continues to live with part-time play. Oddly enough, the 3 relievers out of the 8 options who are sucking happen to be Papelbon, Masterson, and Bard. Papelbon is the worst of the 3 so far, so he awaits one of the other two to sink to his level.

On July 6, two days prior to Soto's return from the DL, Jed Lowrie tears the meniscus in his knee, and is lost for a month. Sigh. In July, the Red Sox absolutely dominate the AL All Star Roster. Cole Hamels, Andrew Bailey, Huston Street, Brian McCann, Albert Pujols, Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, Evan Longoria, Matt Holliday, Matt Kemp, Carlos Gonzalez, and Andre Ethier are all named to the squad. The only regular not named to the team was Prince Fielder, but Carlos Gonzalez made it as an OFer to balance that out.

The Red Sox end July at 86-16, slumping with a 4-loss month. The Blue Jays sit 36 games back. Cole Hamels is the AL Pitcher of the Month, with a 5-0 record in 5 starts, totaling 33.2 IP with a 1.87 ERA and a .618 OPS allowed. Evan Longoria is the AL Rookie of the Month, with his 306/429/602 line in 25 games.

The Red Sox clinch the AL East on August 27, after winning their 100th game of the season on August 21st. The Sox lose 7 games in August, and sit with a record of 107-23 when it ends. The Blue Jays sit 40 games back. Evan Longoria is the AL Rookie of the Month, posting a 324/393/685 line in 26 games. Tommy Hanson, Jonathan Papelbon, Alex Avila, Ryan Doumit, Buster Posey, Skip Schumaker, and Jacoby Ellsbury are called up.

The Red Sox end the 2009 season with a record of 131-31, the greatest mark in MLB history. This defeats the 1906 Cubs and their 116-36 record in both percentage (.809 WP vs .763) and straight Wins or Losses. That is not the only momentous news, either, as Albert Pujols wins the AL Triple Crown, becoming the first player to do so since Yaz in 1967. His 165 RBIs easily beat out Adrian Gonzalez and his 129, his 58 HRs give him a healthy 11-HR lead over Mark Reynolds, and his .354 batting average is just barely good enough to beat out the 2nd place finisher at .351, David Murphy. Yep, that David Murphy, he of the 1.000+ OPS with the Angels, who drafted him when I did not (AKA, I released him when he showed up in OOTP and they snagged him).

The Blue Jays are a mere 51 games back of the Red Sox when the season ends. Albert Pujols is the AL Batter of the Month for September, with his 426/507/730 line in 28 games. He produced an OPS over 1.000 in every full month of the regular season, coming up short only in 3 October regular season games. Carlos Gonzalez is the AL Rookie of the Month, with his 382/412/636 line in 28 September games.

The Red Sox will face the Wild Card team, the Cleveland Indians, in the ALDS.

Jonathan Papelbon comes on strong in September to pitch himself onto the playoff roster, at the expense of Brad Ziegler. In other "he's back, baby!" news, Ryan Doumit takes advantage of Geovany Soto's struggles and earns himself the backup C role for October. Jacoby Ellsbury simply performed horribly, and is left off the roster. Jed Lowrie shows the wrong platoon split, being essentially Zobrist Lite by only hitting RHP (but not as well as Zobrist), while being worse against LHP than Zobrist as well, despite Zobrist being merely average against them. He loses the last bench spot to Skip Schumaker, who hits quite well and serves as both a backup 2B and 5th OFer behind Carlos Gonzalez.

The playoff rotation is Lincecum-Kershaw-Hamels, with Cain in the 4th spot and Jon Lester handling long relief. Bailey, Street, and Romo head up the bullpen, hopefully they fare better than last year's crew.

Game 1 of the ALDS features Tim Lincecum against Ryan Dempster. Lincecum has his A-game, and the Red Sox win 4-1. Rich Harden faces Clayton Kershaw in game 2, and the Indians can't even manage a lone run this time. Kershaw strikes out 12 over 6.2 shutout innings, as the Sox win 5-0. The Indians offer up Aaron Laffey to try to save their season against Cole Hamels. Reverse lock? More like a slaughter. Evan Longoria's 1st inning Grand Slam leads the way, and Aaron Laffey records a lone out, as the Red Sox romp to a 13-4 ALDS-clinching victory. The Red Sox tack on 5 unearned runs in the 9th inning, just to rub it in.

The Minnesota Twins defeat the Seattle Mariners, and so it is a Twins-Sox ALCS. Game 1 is Matt Garza vs Lincecum, and the goat has his day, as he outduels Lincecum and leads the Twins to a 2-1 victory. Buehrle faces Kershaw in Game 2, and the Twins take a 4-3 lead into the bottom of the 7th. The Red Sox chase Buehrle by loading the bases, and Evan Longoria hits his second HR of the game, and second Grand Slam of the postseason, putting the Sox up for good in the game. The Red Sox win 10-4. Scott Baker and Cole Hamels are on the mound in Minnesota for Game 3, and the Twins pull out another 1-run victory, 6-5. The Red Sox score 1 in the 8th and 3 in the 9th, but come up just short. Hamels fails to make it out of the 2nd inning, allowing 5 runs over 1.1 IP. Garza returns to face Lincecum in Game 4, and things go from bad to worse. With the Red Sox up 4-2 in the 4th, Tim Lincecum departs with shoulder tendonitis, and the bullpen (where the hell is Cain, OOTP?!? Stupid AI manager!) allows Lincecum's inherited runners to score, plus 7 of their own, as the Twins win 11-5. The Red Sox head into Game 5 facing elimination, and a 3-1 series deficit. Matt Cain faces Mark Buehrle, as Cain gets his turn in the playoff rotation to give Kershaw and Hamels some extra rest, in an effort to gain some small edge in the fight to stay alive. The gamble pays off, as Cain is good enough to pitch the Red Sox to a 4-3 win.

Needing two more, Clayton Kershaw tries to hold the line against Scott Baker in Game 6 at Fenway Park. He fails, the Twins win 5-4, and the Greatest Regular Season Team in MLB History goes down in postseason flames. Well, that is frustratingly familiar, isn't it?

The Twins go on to face the Brewers in the World Series, and defeat them in 6 games.

As frustrating as this was, this was actually exactly the kind of sim season that I was hoping to eventually get. A full season result of what we would expect to see from a group of uber-stars playing together in their primes, despite the expected seasonal performance variations, followed by the small sample size randomness that is the postseason.

OOTP Sim Postseason Analysis is next.

[JMDurron]

2009 OOTP Sim Postseason Analysis

The team finished 131-31 (holy crap!), 7 games above the Pyth record of 124-38. The Sox led the AL in runs scored with 1184 (I take back my complaining about the Preseason Predictions), and led the AL in runs allowed with 618. The team was 8th in total defense.

The Real 2009 Red Sox

Position Players

This should be fun, 1184 runs don't happen by accident!



C - Brian McCann is one of the reasons that this offense was unstoppable in 2009. He blew away his baseline completely, nevermind Jason Varitek's ailing body. The backups were all below expectations, save for Doumit's few PH appearances. It's a good thing McCann picked this season to make his platoon split magically vanish! Unfortunately, McCann was also one of the main culprits in the team's postseason failure, posting a pathetic .557 OPS.

1B - What can one say about the AL Triple Crown Winner, Albert Pujols? The first thing is that he only exceeded his real 2009 season by .041 points of OPS, meaning that he was actually pretty much on target in terms of dominance. I think his AVG benefited greatly from Fenway Park, and his RBIs were clearly aided a bit by his dominant teammates, but those HRs are all his own. A 11-HR league lead is not merely a function of extra PAs from long rallies by one's teammates. Nothing against Youk, but he was not missed at 1B. DH is something of another matter, as Prince Fielder was actually no better than Youkilis would have been. Both players produced quite well in the postseason, and are exempted from blame for the ALCS exit.

2B - Dustin Pedroia outdid himself a bit, which was another aid to the offense. Unfortuantely, he more than made up for that in October, with his .556 OPS. Zobrist was excellent, although came up just short of his original baseline. He managed to find plenty of playing time despite the other IFers not sucking. OOTP's "every 4th game" depth chart function is quite handy when a player can go in at 4 different positions. Zobrist was not a factor in October, as I was not willing to play him over Pedroia.

SS - Hanley Ramirez came up a bit short of himself, but still bested the immortal Nick Green. Hanley actually improved his output in October, and is therefore immune from blame. Jed Lowrie was fine, and better than his crippled 2009 self, but "fine" is not good enough when you're competing with Ben Zobrist for playing time, as I had feared.

3B - Evan Longoria had a career year, as a major contributor to the historic offense. A nice, round OPS with premium defense on the IF. If you discount 1B defense a bit, Longoria is probably the most complete player on the roster. Just a tad better than 2009 Mike Lowell here. Longoria also led the team with a 1.379 October OPS, plus two grand slams. The team lost despite his efforts, not because of them.

LF - Here's where the magic happened. Matt Holliday actually outproduced himself, and Jason Bay, by a small margin, and still only kept the starting job because he couldn't back up the rest of the OF defensively. Carlos Gonzalez went absolutely insane in the bench role. He initially overtook Ellsbury in ST due to injury, then took every morsel and playing time that he was given, devoured it, and demanded more. He was essentially was in a "every 4th game" rotation with LF, CF, RF, and DH, due to being the best hitter of the group. He was also Holliday's defensive replacement in LF, so got plenty of late-inning PAs. The Rookie of the Year vote should be interesting, at least. Carlos Gonzalez, more than anyone else on the team, was what made the offense go. Both Gonzalez and Holliday were major pieces of the postseason failure, with their respective .650 and .590 OPS marks.

CF - Jacoby Ellsbury was, for the lack of a better description, a complete waste of space. Matt Kemp slightly exceeded his baseline, which was already better than Ellsbury's. Kemp was also worthless in the postseason, with a .522 OPS.

RF - Andre Ethier was another major piece of the offensive puzzle, exceeding his historical baseline, along with JD Drew. He was slightly above average in the playoffs, at a .710 OPS. The entire OF collapsed in October, and that was all she wrote.

The Pitching Staff



Yet another tale of regular season success, and postseason failure. It was also not a good year to be a historical Red Sox player.

Lincecum didn't quite match his baseline, but was still awesome anyway. Of the remaining group, only Kershaw was ace-like, with Hamels and Cain being quite good, with Jon Lester being quite the disappointment. A 14-3 record with that ERA says quite a bit about the offense and bullpen.

In the bullpen, I was fortunate in that the early best performers stayed pretty consistent throughout the season, so the most IP accrued to the best relievers. Andrew Bailey was impressively dominant as the closer. Masterson made a respectable showing, but until Ziegler's September collapse, Masterson, Bard, and Papelbon were bringing up the rear in the pen. At least all 3 made the postseason roster.

In the postseason, Lincecum and Kershaw were adequate, but not dominant or even excellent. Hamels was a disaster. Cain and Lester pitched well in limited action. Neither of the top two relievers by IP, Romo and Robertson, were excellent, and Robertson was actually shelled. Andrew Bailey had the 3rd most relief innings, and was dominant, but did not have enough leads to save. Daniel Bard also got shelled with the 4th most IP. It was a total team failure in October, neither the offense nor the pitching staff get the entirety of the blame. Lincecum's injury was no excuse, as Cain outpitched him in his lone start.

Years of Control and Extensions

6 players appear here, in 4 different categories. Cole Hamels and Geovany Soto are Super-Two arb eligible, and get 4-year deals. Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia, and Matt Kemp are all at 3+ years of service time, and get 3-year deals. Prince Fielder, unfortunately, is at 5 years of service time, and just gets 1 horribly expensive final year.

Leaders and Awards

Gold Glove - Evan Longoria (3B)
Rookie of the Year - Evan Longoria
Cy Young - Tim Lincecum
MVP Award - Albert Pujols

AL Leaders

This might take a while

AVG - Albert Pujols
OBP - Albert Pujols
SLG - Albert Pujols
OPS - Albert Pujols
wOBA - Albert Pujols
WAR - Albert Pujols
Hits - Albert Pujols
2B - Evan Longoria
HR - Albert Pujols
RBI - Albert Pujols
R - Evan Longoria
ISO - Albert Pujols
XBH - Albert Pujols
TB - Albert Pujols

ERA - Tim Lincecum
W - Cole Hamels
K - Tim Lincecum
FIP - Tim Lincecum

The 2009 Draft is next.

[JMDurron]

The 2009 Draft

Historically, the Red Sox had 1 1st round draft pick in the 2009 draft. The pick (#28) was used on Reymond Fuentes.

I have only 1 first round pick, #30 overall.

With the 30th overall selection, I select Brandon Belt. Belt will first appear in 2011.

Wil Myers was another attractive potential pick here, but his poor 2011 season gave me pause. I'm looking for stud prospects post-2011 when possible, not just pre-2011. Plus, Belt was originally drafted by the Red Sox in 2006, but failed to sign and went to school, so it's somewhat appropriate to get him "back".

2009 - 2010 Roster Moves are next.

[JMDurron]

2009 - 2010 Roster Moves, Part I

Departures

Matt Holliday departs. He underperformed expectations in 6 seasons, posting a 300/365/505 line with 131 HRs, compared to his historical 318/387/545 line with 152 HRs. Some of that is obviously the difference between Coors Field and Fenway Park, but for a player with little to no (or negative) defensive value, I was expecting more. His OPS+ in the sim was 125, compared to 133 historically. He made 1 All Star Team, and won 4 consecutive World Series rings from 2004-2007. He is a Type B free agent.

Draft Pick Compensation

Matt Holliday signs with the San Francisco Giants, netting me a supplemental pick in the 2010 draft.

Callups

Steve Cishek, Freddie Freeman, Desmond Jennings, and Mike Stanton join the roster.

They join historical arrival Ryan Kalish.

Positional Depth Summary

Catcher - Brian McCann (149/119), Ryan Doumit (124/94), Buster Posey (108/133), Geovany Soto (105/126), Alex Avila (104/78). As I previously explained in the trade reasoning for Buster Posey, the plan is to go with McCann as the starter and Posey as the backup in 2010, then McCann backed by Avila in 2011 when Posey is injured. Geovany Soto goes onto the trading block. Also, with Avila now stuck with 3rd C duty (I need him in 2011, he wasn't awesome in 2010, and I've gotten used to having a 3rd C as depth in AAA anyway), and Ben Zobrist somewhat competent at 1B, there is no longer any need for Ryan Doumit, whose career I have now thoroughly screwed over. But hey, positional flexibility is why I drafted him originally, not to be my starting C. Nothing personal, just business. McCann and Posey start on the 25-man, with Avila in AAA, and Soto and Doumit hit the trading block.

First Base - Albert Pujols (159/173), Prince Fielder (161/135), Ryan Doumit, Freddie Freeman (20/32). This is quite simple, really. Pujols is the 1B, Fielder is the DH, Doumit is gone, and Freeman plays so few games as to be just a Cup of Coffee guy. This only addresses historical 1B, obviously I use Zobrist to do this in OOTP, because I can use fielder from DH as needed in the narrative, where Terry Francona can be more flexible than the OOTP manager.

Second Base - Dustin Pedroia (75/127), Ben Zobrist (151/96), Skip Schumaker (137/78), Jed Lowrie (55/139). Pedroia is the starter, and Zobrist is the backup, as I have proven that I can get him plenty of PAs from the past couple of sims. Pedroia's injury also means that Lowrie can still get enough playing time to try to make a comeback from injury, as Zobrist starts, while Schumaker works on his MBA through night classes. Yes, I have completely neglected option years and Minor League free agency in Schumaker's case. My only comeback would be "really, THAT'S where we're drawing the line here? Skip Schumaker's option years?" I honestly didn't think of it until I had already committed my draft strategy towards that end, so oh well.

Shortstop - Hanley Ramirez (142/119), Ben Zobrist, Jed Lowrie. Pretty easy. Hanley starts, Zobrist backs up until Pedroia goes down, then Lowrie backs up.

Third Base - Evan Longoria (151/143), Jed Lowrie. Another easy one. Longoria starts, Zobrist backs up with borderline competence because I've taught him to blunder around 3B until Pedroia gets hurt, then Lowrie gets the backup job and is much better at it. Have I mentioned how much range Evan Longoria has at 3B, even on flyballs?

Left Field - Carlos Gonzalez (145/143), Jacoby Ellsbury (18/30), Skip Schumaker, Ryan Kalish (53/88), Josh Reddick (29/39), Desmond Jennings (17/74), Brandon Moss (17/3). Well, at least the starter is easy, that's Carlos Gonzalez. Ellsbury's injury season prevents an OF logjam. Did I mention Longoria's range? Desmond Jennings and Ryan Kalish are new guys with part-time duty, so they are effectively callups. Moss and Reddick are essentially irrelevant, I only bother listing them because I might be slightly OCD. Schumaker will most likely end up being the effective 5th OFer, more info on the 4th man to come. No trades are required despite the large number of names.

Center Field - Matt Kemp (162/106), Jacoby Ellsbury, Ryan Kalish. Kemp is the clear starter, the others are basically already covered. Kalish may end up actually being needed to backup the position, but I'm hoping not.

Right Field - Andre Ethier (139/133), Mike Stanton (100/118), Skip Schumaker, Ryan Kalish, Brandon Moss, Josh Reddick. Andre Ethier is the starter, and Mike Stanton is the obvious choice as the 4th OFer. He is rated only as a RF, but should clearly be adaptable to LF. CF is a little bit more of a dicey proposition. I'm going to have to actually do the roster math to see how I can back up that position, it might very well be a full season of Kalish on the roster, because he's the only healthy guy once Ellsbury goes down. Obviously that is a narrative-only issue.

Starting Pitching Depth Summary

Matt Cain (223.1/125), Tim Lincecum (212.1/114), Cole Hamels (208.2/127), Jon Lester (208/134), Clayton Kershaw (204.1/133), Tommy Hanson (202.2/117), Justin Masterson (180/84).

This isn't actually quite as hard as it looks, thanks to what I didn't do with Justin Masterson in 2009. Since he was never traded out of the Red Sox bullpen to Cleveland, the Indians never made him a starter right out of the gate. Since it is somewhat unfair to assume an equal 2010 workload without the 2009 starting pitching prep work, I have the somewhat thin but still real justification to send Masterson down to AAA to work on becoming a starter for the majority of the season. He is effectively the 6th starter in AAA as he works on his repertoire and facing LHH. I call this strategy "Deus Ex Masterson." It's not totally unreasonable, but it's amazingly convenient.

That still leaves me with 6 guys for 5 slots. My original plan was to trade Matt Cain, as he headed into his last year of control. That plan is impacted by Cain's lack of 2005 playing time making 2011 his last season of control instead of 2010. So, I need to look at the service time of all 6 starters, because I do want to leave some semblance of a rotation after 2011, even though I'm done with the sim at that point. Projecting current service time (if a guy sucks enough in the OOTP sim for the 6th starter to replace him mid-season, it gets all messed up) Cain is through 2011, Hamels is through 2013, Hanson is through 2015, Kershaw is through 2014, Lester is through 2012, and Lincecum is through 2013. Cain is still the obvious man to trade, and therefore goes onto the trading block.

Bullpen Depth Summary

Justin Masterson's conversion to a starter means that the 7 guys left from 2009 (Ziegler, Street, Bailey, Bard, Papelbon, Romo, and Robertson) all have spots in the bullpen for the full season. Cishek historically pitched 4.1 IP in 2010, so he is strictly a callup. I don't think I remember the last time I had to make zero bullpen trades.

Final Trading Block

SP Matt Cain, C/1B Ryan Doumit, C Geovany Soto.

Most likely seeking only future prospects, but we'll see what Cain turns up. The lack of additional draft picks over the last several seasons, which was intentional, is the key to not having a ridiculous number of players to have to trade any longer. After all, why would I want to make major changes to last year's team anyway?

The trade market post is next.

Edited by JMDurron, 10 December 2011 - 09:17 AM.

[JMDurron]

2009 - 2010 Trade Market

I have SP Matt Cain, C Ryan Doumit, and C Geovany Soto to trade.

The only real piece worth shopping for potentially significant gain is Cain. I have no needs, so I suppose I'll see what potentially awesome upgrades might be offered.

As per usual, there is a large selection to choose from. Jered Weaver, Ryan Braun, Jason Heyward, Starlin Castro, Ryan Zimmerman, Andrew McCutchen, and Justin Upton jump out immediately. The problem is that none of them are obvious upgrades.

Jered Weaver only has 2 years of control left, making him essentially a more expensive version of everyone else in my rotation, and OOTP doesn't consider his best season, 2011, in his ratings to help determine his 2011 sim performance.

Ryan Braun is not a significant upgrade over Carlos Gonzalez in LF*, and Gonzalez has two more years of control than Braun does.

* This is because, despite OOTP giving Braun way too much credit for being a competent LF (he's really not), Braun's main advantage over Gonzalez is their respective 2011 campaigns, which matter to me in the narrative, but not so much in the sim. I have plenty of guys who were much better in 2011 than 2010 that I won't benefit from already, thank you. He might be worth the cost (fewer years of control, higher salary) if he was a certain upgrade with the 2011 performance factored in, but he's not.

Heyward is an interesting candidate, but doesn't really fulfill a need. Gonzalez, Kemp, Ethier, Stanton, and Ellsbury have the entire OF covered with a handy mix of 2010 and 2011 excellence. There's also Desmond Jennings to consider over the longer term. Heyward is also, for whatever reason, rated as by far the worst and least versatile defender among the group. Then there's Heyward's 2011 falloff to consider to more realistic terms.

Starlin Castro, for all the hype, can't hold Hanley's jockstrap offensively pre-2011, and his initial defensive returns were at least as poor as Hanley's baby steps. There is, however, the not small matter of Hanley's 2011 season, and his own team's apparent evaluation that he is not the SS of the future. Hanley might be worth looking at if there is someone who hits like Hanley while playing better defense (in the sense that someone who looks like Kate Upton might be worth looking at if she also was into baseball statistics), if only because Hanley's defense is a liability to the point that he might not be worth extending beyond his 2011 6th season. Castro would bring the extra years of control (4 more), but I'm not sure if he'd bring either the offensive output or the defensive excellence to justify the deal.

Ryan Zimmerman is great, but he's not Evan Longoria. Pass.

Andrew McCutchen is a very intriguing choice, but CF is already covered short term with Kemp and (hopefully) long term by Ellsbury, so I'm not seeing the fit here. FWIW, OOTP hates his defense. The real Jacoby Ellsbury's 2011 season is the real sticking point here, although 2010 playing time would also be a concern. I'd probably just put Stanton on hold for one year as the 5th OFer and give McCutchen the 4th OF position that Gonzalez held the year before, so Ellsbury is still the problem. He loses 2010, and never hits his potential until 2011. If I'm making moves based on reality/the narrative, then I'd prefer Ellsbury to McCutchen. If I'm considering sim results at all, then Ellsbury is a miserable choice for a starter on this team. He is, however, the only OFer on the current roster who can play CF once Kemp leaves after 2011. Kemp himself is another 2010/2011 issue, where his awesomeness in 2011 and relative mehness in 2010 compared to McCutchen forces the same choice. Ultimately, even if I bias towards the sim, McCutchen's defense is rated as poor enough to give me pause.

Epiphany

I actually paused and went out at this point in the post, and realized the obvious solution to my 2011 sim problem. I am trying to make decisions based on real-world knowledge, but ultimately the real fun part of this thread is the sims. For 2011, it is difficult to reconcile the two due to guys like Ellsbury and Kemp having excellent 2011s after less exciting 2010 seasons. Desmond Jennings and Justin Masterson face the same issue, among others. The obvious solution is something I did in Baseball Mogul when necessary, specifically what I would like to call

The Eckersley Modification

I spent most of the late 70s-early 80s turning Eckersley from a reliever into a starter to be more historically accurate due to Baseball Mogul's odd rating of him as a reliever far too early in his career. Well, now that 2011 is effectively historical as well, I see no reason that I cannot enter the real 2011 stats of the players in question to generate more suitable ratings for their 2011 simulation seasons. To be clear, this would only be for players with ratings that are far, far off from what their apparent 2011 performances would merit, even given a 3-year-average regression. I'll deal with the mechanics when I get to the 2010-2011 Roster Moves, but this is relevant right now in that it solves my dilemma of trying to evaluate players relative to each other by two different valuation methods simultaneously.

This effectively fixes my Kemp and Ellsbury OF problems, and makes McCutchen completely redundant.

Justin Upton still isn't worth dealing with his 2010 performance in order to get his 2011 line, when I'm already doing that with Kemp. I'm going to have a RF issue with Ethier/Stanton as it is anyway.

So, it would seem that my answer to "who should I get out of these excellent options?" is "nobody." In that case, what to do?

When I consider the rotation for 2010-2011, the bullpen for the next two years, Posey at C, Pujols at 1B, Fielder then a prospect medley (Freeman/Montero/Jennings/Stanton) at DH, Pedroia at 2B, Hanley/Zobrist at SS, Longoria at 3B, Gonzalez in LF, Kemp/Ellsbury in CF, and Ethier/Stanton in RF, there's not much room for an upgrade. I have dealt with the upswing in 2011 for Kemp and Ellsbury, but what I haven't addressed is one player's complete dropoff in 2011.

Hanley Ramirez is injured, below-average offensively, and still a mediocre-to-poor defensive SS in 2011. If I were to dare try to upgrade him, I would need a player with at least as many years of control left as him, similar offensive capability, both now AND in the future (Castro is out), and better defense. There is one player in all of baseball who meets these criteria, and I have Cain(good performer and high ratings), Doumit (meh), and Soto (meh performance, but highly rated due to a solid 2010 season) to add as sweeteners. In a 2010 context, and with the other team having no foreknowledge of Hanley's injury issues, I can reasonably argue that the difference between Hanley and this other player is smaller than the value of Matt Cain, Ryan Doumit, and Geovany Soto combined.

Upon investigating the possible Hanley swap, the OOTP GM of the other team would take any one of my sweeteners to close the deal. In the interest of fairness, acknowledgement of the relative ease of the default OOTP trade settings, and to avoid yet another tedious round of "find a team's Top 10 2011 prospect who existed at this moment), I add all 3 to the deal. I also throw in cash to offset he combined salaries of those 3 players.

I trade Hanley Ramirez, Matt Cain, Geovany Soto, and Ryan Doumit to the Colorado Rockies for Troy Tulowitzki.

Edited by JMDurron, 07 December 2011 - 10:48 PM.

[JMDurron]

2009 - 2010 Roster Moves, Part II

Post-Trade Roster Review

The AAA designations are for day 1 of the season. Obviously Zobrist and Lowrie move up 1 each on the chart when Pedroia goes down. The "forced" designation means that I force the player to learn the position in ST and during the season.

SP - Lincecum, Lester, Hamels, Hanson, Kershaw, Masterson (AAA)
RP - Papelbon, Bard, Ziegler, Street, Romo, Bailey, Robertson, Cishek (AAA)
C - McCann, Posey, Avila (AAA)
1B - Pujols, Fielder, Zobrist (forced), Lowrie (AAA, forced), Freeman (AAA)
2B - Pedroia, Zobrist, Lowrie (AAA), Schumaker (AAA)
SS - Tulowitzki, Zobrist, Lowrie (AAA)
3B - Longoria, Zobrist (forced), Lowrie (AAA)
LF - Gonzalez, Ellsbury, Stanton, Jennings (AAA), Schumaker (AAA), Moss (AAA), Kalish (AAA), Reddick (AAA)
CF - Kemp, Ellsbury, Stanton (forced), Kalish (AAA)
RF - Ethier, Stanton, Schumaker (AAA), Moss (AAA), Kalish (AAA), Reddick (AAA)

Historical Transactions

I do not trade for Jeremy Hermida, Boof Bonser, Bill Hall, Eric Patterson, Kevin Cash, or Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

I do not sign Darnell McDonald, Marco Scutaro, Scott Atchison, Mike Cameron, John Lackey, Adrian Beltre (sniffle), Alan Embree (WTF, I forgot about this), Scott Schoeneweis, or Carlos Delgado.

That transaction list reminds me oddly of the early 1990s. Beltre is the notable exception.

The 2010 season is next.

EDIT - Removed Forced Lowrie at 3B, he's already 3B-capable.

Edited by JMDurron, 09 December 2011 - 09:16 PM.

[JMDurron]

The 2010 Season

Position Players

C: Brian McCann over Victor Martinez (122 -> 119). Buster Posey (133) backs up. Alex Avila (78) lurks in AAA as the 3rd catcher.
1B: Albert Pujols over Kevin Youkilis (157 -> 173). Fielder backs up from DH, followed by Ben Zobrist (96) backs up.
2B: Dustin Pedroia (127). Once Pedroia goes down, Zobrist steps in, and Jed Lowrie (139) backs up.
SS: Troy Tulowitzki over Marco Scutaro (92 -> 138). Zobrist, then Lowrie backing up.
3B: Evan Longoria over Adrian Beltre (141 -> 143). Zobrist, then Lowrie backing up.
LF: Carlos Gonzalez over Daniel Nava (91 -> 143). Mike Stanton (118) is the primary backup due to the injury to Jacoby Ellsbury (30).
CF: Matt Kemp over Darnell McDonald (103 -> 106). Kemp, thankfully, plays 162 games in 2010, so Mike Stanton is merely a paper backup once Ellsbury goes down.
RF: Andre Ethier over JD Drew (109 -> 133). Stanton backs up.
DH: Prince Fielder over David Ortiz (137 -> 135). Posey backs up.

Backups

Buster Posey - C, DH
Ben Zobrist - 1B, 2B, SS, 3B
Jed Lowrie - 2B, SS, 3B
Mike Stanton - LF, RF, CF
Jacoby Ellsbury - LF, CF

Starting Pitchers

Tim Lincecum (212.1/114)
Cole Hamels (208.2/127)
Jon Lester (208/134)
Clayton Kershaw (204.1/133)
Tommy Hanson (202.2/117)

Justin Masterson (180/84) - 6th starter, AAA, his IP are greatly reduced due to no previous usage as a starter, so he needs the AAA conversion time.

The Bullpen

Daniel Bard (74.2/227)
Jonathan Papelbon (67/112)
Sergio Romo (62/180)
David Robertson (61.1/114)
Brad Ziegler (60.2/126)
Andrew Bailey (49/281)
Huston Street (47.1/129)

The Pawtucket Shuttle

Situational Callups - Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson, Alex Avila, Skip Schumaker, Ryan Kalish

Cup of Coffee/No Time - Steve Cishek, Freddie Freeman (I'm not saying his OOTP picture is awful, but Dante Bichette has some competition in the looks department here), Josh Reddick, Brandon Moss, Desmond Jennings

Season Results

Historically, the 2010 Red Sox finished 3rd in the AL East, 7 games behind the Rays, and 6 games behind the Wild Card-winning Yankees. This required a nearly inexplicable run of injury devastation.

On offense, there are no downgrades (McCann and Martinez are roughly equivalent), several positions that remain basically the same at C, 2B, 3B, CF, and DH, a couple of mild upgrades at 1B and RF, and two huge upgrades at SS and LF. In hindsight, it's rather amazing that Nava and McDonald put up the offensive numbers that they did, it always felt like they did worse than that. Yeoman work at the plate, that was.

Defensively, C is an upgrade for both the starter and #2 position, with McCann/Posey over Martinez/Varitek. 1B and 2B are relatively unchanged, as Ben Zobrist is considered equal to Bill Hall defensively at 2B by Total Zone. Tulowitzki is a notable upgrade over Marco Scutaro at SS. Longoria is rated as superior to Beltre by more at 3B than I think is reasonable, mostly because Longoria had no "adjust to Fenway's IF" issues skewing his 3B fielding data. I'm calling this a wash in terms of ability despite the stats, but I will say that Longoria is consistently equal to Beltre's final 3-4 months, since he has already adjusted to the IF surface. Gonzalez and Nava rate out as roughly a wash in LF, but I suspect this is a severe SSS issue. I'm calling this a mild upgrade. Kemp is a mild upgrade over McDonald in CF, in the "going from bad to average" sense. Andre Ethier is a massive downgrade from JD Drew in RF, apparently he is Millar/Hinske level bad out there in 2010.

In the rotation, despite the down year (for him) from Lincecum, the rotation presents two ace-level performances from Lester and Kershaw, plus a very good season from Hamels, and above-average seasons from Lincecum and Hanson. The Red Sox shall not be the 11th best pitching staff in the AL this time.

A bullpen where 2010 Papelbon is the worst pitcher is a fantastic bullpen, despite our emotional memories of blown saves.

One unexpected result of the Hanley-for-Tulo trade in the offseason is the slight pastiness of the majority of the stars on the roster. Certain rabble-rousing local and national media types attempt to use the prevalence of melanin-challenged stars like Hamels, Hanson, Lincecum, Lester, Kershaw, the bullpen aside from Romo, McCann, Posey, Pedroia, Zobrist, Longoria, and especially Tulowitzki to try to roll back the racial progress gained by the franchise from the late 1970s onward. They do this because there is a certain lack of juicy tidbits coming out of what has generally been a well-oiled machine for decades now, and this rankles them on some fundamental level. Most of the talk centers on the pitching staff, since 5/9 of the lineup are not Caucasian. At one point in Spring Training, Albert Pujols is asked a leading question on the subject, and basically shuts it down with a response along the lines of "This is my team, I am the longest-tenured player here, the organization has committed to me for the future, and we are all just baseball players here." Tim Lincecum disappoints the spectacularly dense Boston media with a tame "whatever, dude" response. Former Red Sox legends Ozzie Smith and Tony Gwynn confirm the lack of any kind of racial issues within the organization, and the story dies after a brief, if annoying life.

This brief burst of media activity can be traced to the removal of Hanley Ramirez from the roster, as his occasional fits of immaturity always made for good copy. From the standpoint of "if it bleeds, it leads", this roster is rather boring on paper.

Early in the year, during Jacoby Ellsbury's first start in LF in relief of Carlos Gonzalez, there is a pop fly in Kansas City, hit into the 3B foul area. Ellsbury races for it, Longoria races for it, and Ellsbury gets there first. He catches the ball, Longoria gives him a glancing blow, and they give each other a "whew, that was close!" look. All is well on that first road trip.

In late May, there is an off-field incident with on-field implications that gives the Boston sports media (and ESPN, and every news program in America, really) something to talk about. Just as the weather is warming up, on a boat with several other players during a rare temperate off-day in Boston, Jacoby Ellsbury is minding his own business when some lunatic falls out of a helicopter and lands on him. As it turns out, it is Evan Longoria. Something about a baseball cap. Ellsbury suffers a difficult to diagnose, but still significant rib cage injury that sidelines him for the rest of the season. No charges are filed, but Longoria feels terrible, and Ellsbury is done for the year. Mike Stanton does his best to pretend to be sad about the early callup to be the backup OFer.

This time, there is no drama from a slow start, or the Yankees putting up a fight for the division. Tulowitzki's SS defense helps the starters nearly hit their historical raw stats as the team annihilates all those who stand before them in impressive fashion. Songs shall be sung of the 2010 regular season. Not dirges this time, but happy songs! 3rd hitter Albert Pujols is IBBed so frequently that he falls well short in the RBI hunt for the Triple Crown, as cleanup hitter Prince Fielder happily feasts upon the frequent gift of contract-year RBI opportunities.

The Red Sox tie the 2001 Seattle Mariners with a 116-win season, and await their ALDS opponent. The Yankees take the Wild Card easily, taking wins from the Rays where they are lost to the Red Sox. The Twins still win the AL Central easily, while the Rangers take the AL West. Shockingly, I only poached 1 player from the 3 relevant AL playoff teams, David Robertson from the Yankees. Plus Longoria and Zobrist from Tampa, of course.

The Red Sox host the Rangers, while the Yankees face the Twins. Again.

Both AL East teams sweep their respective ALDSes, and face each other in the ALCS. In a departure from historical norms, the Yankees are swept aside without drama (the games are all competitive, I mean in terms of series score), and the Red Sox celebrate another trip to the World Series in the Bronx.

Now the time comes to determine the World Series opponent. In the East, the Phillies originally won 97 games, ahead of the 91-win, WC Braves. Hamels alone does not make up the difference between the two teams, and that's before considering McCann. The Phillies still win the NL East. The 91-win Braves only won the WC by 1 game over San Diego, and are at risk. The losses of McCann and Hanson leave them in 84-win territory. This puts them behind the Padres, but not necessarily out of the playoffs.

The Reds won the NL central by 5 games over the Cardinals with 91 wins, and are missing nobody. They still win the NL Central. The Cardinals fall below .500 without Pujols, and therefore the Braves will have some hope of a postseason berth. In the West, The Giants originally won the NL West by 2 games over the Padres, with 92 wins, but without Posey, Romo, and Lincecum, that is simply not happening. The combined losses put them well below the Padres, giving the unmolested Padres the NL West. The Giants fall one game short of the Braves for the NL Wild Card, and miss the playoffs entirely.

The Phillies host the Padres, and the Braves head to Cincy for the NLDS. Cincy jumps on Atlanta's mediocre pitching, as the Phillies mash against the Padres. Halladay and Oswalt are then enough to get the Phillies past the Padres, and it's a Red Sox-Phillies World Series.

The Phillies actually are a challenging opponent in the World Series, with a great 1-2 punch with Halladay and Oswalt in the rotation, plus a very potent lineup that was 2nd in the NL in runs scored. There are two major problems facing the Phillies, specifically when facing these Red Sox. It would be more accurate to say that there is one problem that manifests itself in two ways. That problem is the handedness of the Philly lineup. From slots 3-6 in the lineup, only Jayson Werth, hitting 5th, is right-handed. This a problem for two reasons. The first is that Fenway Park is not quite a LHH's paradise. The second is that the three best starters on these 2010 Red Sox are Jon Lester, Clayton Kershaw, and Cole Hamels. All 3 of those pitchers are left-handed. This effectively neutralizes Ryan Howard as a lineup equalizer, and is a negative for Raul Ibanez as well.

Lincecum is still the "staff ace", so Francona still goes with him in Game 1, with the Red Sox well-rested after sweeping away the Yankees. A 4-man rotation shall be used to maximize the number of starts by the 3 lefties.

In Game 1, "well-rested" actually means "rusty", as the Red Sox mimic the 2007 Rockies by stumbling out of the gate and losing at Fenway to Roy Halladay. In Game 2, Lester is masterful and bests Oswalt. In Game 3, Clayton Kershaw faces Joe Blanton, and the Red Sox lineup has a great time in Citizens Bank Ballpark, romping to an easy victory. Game 4 sees Roy Halladay on short rest against Cole Hamels, and the pitching duel goes into the bullpens. The Phillies take the lead on a Chase Utley HR, but Brad Lidge blows the save to Evan Longoria, and the Red Sox come back to punch the Phillies in the gut, and take a 3-1 series lead. Roy Oswalt holds the line in Game 5 against, Lincecum, who was good, but not quite good enough against such an excellent lineup. Jon Lester vs Kyle Kendrick (Joe Blanton on short rest is pointless) in Game 6 is not the laugher that it should have been, with Andre Ethier giving the Phillies plenty of extra hits in Fenway's spacious RF. Once again, though, the Red Sox lineup gets to the Phillies bullpen, as JC Romero intentionally walks Pujols to face Fielder, only to be presented with Buster Posey as a PH instead. Charlie Manuel is out of other "good" pitchers, Posey sends his regards over the Monster Seats, and the Red Sox go on to win the 2010 World Series in 6 games.

The OOTP Sim is next.

Edited by JMDurron, 09 December 2011 - 11:44 PM.

[JMDurron]

2010 OOTP Season Simulation

Preseason Predictions



Those Texas Rangers look pretty interesting as a playoff opponent, with Adrian Gonzalez and Jose Bautista at the corners.

Season Walkthrough

Spring Training is spent getting Zobrist used to 1B and 3B, Ellsbury more time in LF/RF, and Stanton time in LF/CF. Ellsbury gets first shot at the 4th OF position again, with Stanton behind him. If one of them looks good and the other sucks, Lowrie gets the roster spot. I hadn't realized that Buster Posey was also 1B capable, so he gets first backup shot there over Zobrist to get more PAs, depending on how those two perform relative to each other.

April ends with the Red Sox at 17-6, leading the East by 4 games over the Rays. Jonathan Papelbon is awful enough in a large enough sample for me to feel justified in sending him down to AAA based on my previously applied standards, but since Cishek is originally supposed to get so few IP, and it has only been one month, he gets some rope. He does lose the closer job to David Robertson, though. A 6.75 ERA in 10.2 IP won't cut it.

Matt Holliday finally signs with the Giants on May 5, netting me a supplemental pick in the 2010 draft. Sheesh.

May ends with the Sox at 36-16, with a 6 game lead over the Rays in the AL East. Tommy Hanson is the AL Pitcher of the Month, with a 5-0 record, 2.97 ERA, and 33.1 IP in 5 starts. Mike Stanton claims the RF position vs LHP, putting himself into a platoon with Andre Ethier. I don't expect this to hold out, but Ellsbury is also outhitting Carlos Gonzalez vs LHP, and is a far better defender, so he gets significant time in LF vs LHP. This means that neither of them can be sent down for Lowrie. Buster Posey demands a straight platoon with Brian McCann, and starts at C vs LHP. Two months and an ERA of 5.79 buys Papelbon a trip back to AAA (Option Year 2) in exchange for Cishek.

On June 10, Carlos Gonzales hits for the Cycle against the Cleveland Indians. At the end of June, the Red Sox are 59-20, 15 games up on the Rays. Albert Pujols is the AL Batter of the Month, with his 13 HRs and a 446/514/946 line in 25 games. His rate stats are currently outpacing his 2009 Triple Crown season, but his HRs are down while Thome and Bautista mash in Chicago and Texas, respectively. Ellsbury's SSS luck ends against LHP, and suddenly he's looking completely redundant relative to Stanton. Zobrist is also not dominating as the backup IF, so it's Lowrie time. Ellsbury goes down (3rd and final time I can do this) for Lowrie.

In July, Tim Lincecum, Albert Pujols, Dustin Pedroia, Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, and Andre Ethier are named to the AL All-Star Team. The Sox finish the month at 78-26, with a 20.5 game lead over the Rays. Carlos Gonzalez is the AL Batter of the Month, thanks to his 356/407/760 line in 24 games. Cole Hamels is the AL Pitcher of the Month, due to his 5 dominant starts producting a 5-0 record and a 0.53 ERA over 34 IP. With a combination of a hot July and superior defense, Carlos Gonzalez takes Andre Ethier's job away vs LHP (Ethier had initially taken it back from Ellsbury, with Stanton moving to LF). Gonzalez is back in LF with Stanton in RF vs LHP. This would leave the defensively incompetent Ethier as my only backup OF. Unfortunately, in an extremely limited sample, Jed Lowrie is far less useful than either Ben Zobrist or another backup OF, because I need a backup OF who can play defense more than I need to see what Lowrie can do with the table scraps left by Dustin Pedroia, Troy Tulowitzki, and Evan Longoria. Lowrie goes back down for Ryan Kalish. I figure he's worth a shot due to Ellsbury's ineptitude to date.

August ends with the Red Sox at 99-33, 29 games ahead of the Rays and Yankees. Buster Posey is the AL Rookie of the Month, thanks to his 435/458/783 line in 23 games. As the rosters expand, Justin Masterson, Jonathan Papelbon, Alex Avila, Freddie Freeman, Skip Schumaker, Jed Lowrie, Jacoby Ellsbury, Desmond Jennings, Brandon Moss, and Josh Reddick are called up. Buster Posey claims the full C job, between his slightly superior bat and freakishly superior CERA. His defensive ratings are superior, but the pitching staff is putting up an ERA of 4.37 with McCann, vs 3.26 with Posey. Since Posey is not assigned to any particular pitcher, this seems worth investigating down the stretch. Plus, again, he's outhitting McCann going both ways. Clayton Kershaw struggles all season, so Masterson takes his rotation spot in September.

The Red Sox finish the season at 123-39, with win #123 coming on the last game of the season, via a 6-run, bottom of the 9th, come-from-behind win over the NY Yankees, 13-9. The Yankees went into the bottom of the 9th with a 9-7 lead, and Buster Posey ended their season with a walkoff Grand Slam. The Yankees finish 2nd in the AL East, a mere 35 games behind the Sox. Albert Pujols is the AL Batter of the Month in Setpember, with 400/453/687 line in 27 games. Jon Lester is the AL Pitcher of the Month, with a record of 4-0 and an ERA of 1.86 over 38.2 IP in 6 starts.

The Minnesota Twins, winners of the AL Wild Card, are to be the ALDS opponent.

Ryan Kalish remains on the playoff roster over Jacoby Ellsbury. Justin Masterson sucked more than Clayton Kershaw, and therefore Kershaw keeps his spot. Jonathan Papelbon fails to pitch his way onto the playoff roster. The playoff rotation is Lincecum-Lester-Hamels, with Hanson in the 4th spot and Kershaw as the long man. OOTP's odd managerial choices mean that Lincecum is still recovering from game 162 when the ALDS starts.

Game 1 features Francisco Liriano against Jon Lester. Lester goes 6.2 scoreless innings, while the Red Sox hit 5 HRs (2 for Pedroia) in a 7-0 pasting. Scott Baker faces Lincecum in Game 2, but Lincecum only goes 4.2 IP, and the Red Sox bullpen allows 4 runs in the midst of a 7-3 loss. Cole Hamels faces Kevin Slowey in Minnesota for Game 3, and Cole Hamels is a complete disaster. He allows 6 ER while only recording 1 out. Clayton Kershaw comes in to eat some innings...and gives up 3 more runs while only recording 1 out. A 3-0 Red Sox lead becomes a 9-3 deficit in 2/3 of 1 inning. David Robertson then can't get out of the 2nd inning without giving up yet another run, and things are looking bleak. The Red Sox chip away with 3 in the 2nd and 1 in the 3rd to make it 10-7. The bullpen finally holds the line, with Cishek, Romo, Ziegler, Bard, and Bailey combining to allow 1 unearned run over the final 7 innings. Pujols, Fielder, and Tulowitzki all hit HRs in the 7th inning, then Pujols adds another in the 8th to put the Red Sox on top, and they come back to win, 13-11.

Despite being up 2 games to 1 in Game 4, Jon Lester is desperately needed to go deep into the game to spare the bullpen. I swap Hanson and Kershaw to try to get the OOTP AI to use Hanson as another arm in this game if needed. Liriano is the Twins' starter, looking for revenge after an awful Game 1. He gets it, as Lester is pounded and chased in the 5th, and the lineup is unable to solve Liriano in a 8-3 Twins victory. Tim Lincecum takes the mound against Scott Baker in Game 5 at Fenway Park to stave off elimination. Lincecum is staked to a 5-0 lead, and proceeds to allow 6 runs in the 5th inning, as he is inexplicably left in to take the pounding after a travel day as rested the bullpen. The Red Sox come back to tie the game at 6, but Huston Street allows 2 7th-inning runs, and the Twins advance to the ALCS.

The Twins are eliminated by the Tigers in the ALCS, and the Tigers lose to the Brewers in the World Series.

OOTP Sim Postseason Analysis is next.

[JMDurron]

2010 OOTP Sim Postseason Analysis

The team finished 123-39, 3 games over the pyth record of 120-42. The Sox led the AL in runs scored with 1158, and in runs allowed with 653. They were 5th in the AL in defense.

The Real 2010 Red Sox

Position Players



C - Brian McCann was actually right on target for his historical output, but Buster Posey blew right on by him while exceeding his own historical numbers. Posey also easily outhit Victor Martinez, while McCann was in the same ballpark. Posey kept up the good work in the playoffs.

1B - Albert Pujols was just as awesome as he was supposed to be, better than even Youk's 2010 rate stats. Prince Fielder outdid himself while blowing past 2010 David Ortiz. Pujols and Fielder both put up postseason MVP type numbers in the playoffs (1.840 and 1.381 OPS, respectively), there is no blame to be found here.

2B - Dustin Pedroia was right on target, but stayed healthy. Ben Zobrist was roughly his own equal in less playing time. Pedroia's 1.143 postseason OPS excludes him from blame for yet another disappointing October, as well.

SS - Tulowitzki was right where he should be, and obviously blows Marco Scutaro away. Jed Lowrie never saw enough playing time to be judged, but didn't seem primed to grab more. Tulowitzki also mashed in the playoffs, to the tune of a 1.081 OPS.

3B - Evan Longoria was quite good, despite coming up just short of himself and 2010 Adrian Beltre. Longoria came up quite short of expectations in the postseason with his .619 OPS, but not everyone can mash at the same time.

LF - Carlos Gonzalez went absolutely insane, blasting past his baseline numbers that were already far beyond Mr. Nava. He was invisible in the playoffs with a .418 OPS.

CF - Matt Kemp was able to mildly improve on himself, and on Darnell McDonald. That is quite fortunate, because neither Ellsbury nor Kalish were any help. Kemp was also invisible in the playoffs with a .458 OPS.

RF - Andre Ethier went off as well, far surpassing his historical output. His miserable defense led to lots of opportunities for Mike Stanton, who held steady to his baseline while covering the backup OF spots. Both were an upgrade over JD Drew, but only at the plate. Both sides of this platoon sucked in October, with .641/.597 OPSes for Ethier/Stanton.

Pitching Staff



Tim Lincecum managed to avoid his slump season, and was still the staff ace. Tommy Hanson was right on target, while Lester and Hamels dropped from aces to "still quite good". Clayton Kershaw was quite the disappointment, going from an ace to below average, but Justin Masterson still had no business taking innings from him.

In the bullpen, Steve Cishek was the rookie jewel of the pen, somewhat balancing out extremely disappointing showings by Papelbon and Romo. Daniel Bard and Andrew Bailey made for an excellent 1-2-3 with Cishek. Robertson, Ziegler, and Street were all fine as middle relievers.

In the postseason, the pitching staff can only be described as a disaster. By IP/ERA, Lincecum (9/8.00), Hamels (0.1/162.16), and Kershaw (0.1/81.03) were pretty much worthless. Hamels and Kershaw were only in one game together, and that game was a victory, but that's beside the point. Jon Lester (11.1/3.97) was the staff "ace" in the playoffs. An ERA near 4 is not what is called for from your top postseason performer. The bullpen also had a goat in Huston Street (3.1/16.20), while the Top 3 of Bailey (1/0), Bard (1/0), and Cishek (2.1/0) were basically untouchable. The problem is that the rotation and middle relief put the team in such a hole that they rarely pitched. Romo (5.2/1.59) and Ziegler (5.1/1.69) did an excellent job of holding the line when the starters were inevitably chased.

Years of Control and Extensions

6 players in 3 different categories this time.

Tim Lincecum, Sergio Romo, Brad Ziegler, and Ben Zobrist are all at or just over 3 years of service time, and get 3-year extensions. Or they would, except that Sergio Romo gets pissed off during contract negotiations, and breaks off the talks. He will get a single-year arb raise.

Jonathan Papelbon has sucked in enough seasons to only be at 4.5 years of service time, so instead of being a free agent after 2011, he's waiting until 2012. His last two years have been his worst, so I give him a 2-year extension in the hope of avoiding a single-year award after his 2011 campaign. Suffice to say that the OOTP contract negotiation AI doesn't properly model player desires and preferences in contract negotiations.

Troy Tulowtizki, traded post-arb with the Rockies, is heading into his final arb year after year-to-year deals in Colorado. In my standard pattern, I would give him a 1-year deal, but this is the premiere SS in baseball, at age 27, with only extremely iffy prospects who I have no insight into in the pipeline to play the position. Instead of a 1-year deal for his age 27 season (Oct 10 birthday), I give him a long-term extension for 6 years through his age 32 season in 2016.

Leaders and Awards

Gold Glove - Evan Longoria (3B), Troy Tulowitzki (SS) -- Clay Buchholz wins the Gold Glove at P for the Yankees.
Rookie of the Year - Buster Posey
Cy Young - Tim Lincecum
MVP Award - Carlos Gonzalez

AL Leaders

AVG - Carlos Gonzalez
SLG - Carlos Gonzalez
OPS - Carlos Gonzalez
wOBA - Carlos Gonzalez
WAR - Albert Pujols
Hits - Carlos Gonzalez
Runs - Carlos Gonzalez
ZBH - Carlos Gonzalez
TB - Carlos Gonzalez

Wins - Tommy Hanson
Ks - Tim Lincecum
K/9 - Tim Lincecum
OAVG - Tim Lincecum

The 2010 Draft is next.

Edited by JMDurron, 10 December 2011 - 07:06 PM.

[JMDurron]

The 2010 Draft

Historically, the Red Sox had 3 first round picks in the 2010 draft. The Red Sox gained the 20th overall pick from the Atlanta Braves for losing Billy Wagner. They lost the 29th pick to the Angels for signing John Lackey. The Sox gained supplemental picks for the losses of Wagner and Jason Bay. Those picks were used on Kolbrin Vitek, Bryce Brentz, and Anthony Ranaudo.

I have two picks, the standard pick at #30, and a supplemental pick for the loss of Matt Holliday to the Giants.

The fog of war looms large here, and I don't have much of anything to pick from in terms of MLB track records. I'm looking to lock up a fair portion of my positional core after the 2011 season simulation, because pitcher variance makes me wary of locking up any of them beyond their 6 full seasons of service. This means that I want pitching prospects, and if the Red Sox drafted one who has some potential upside that is not a known failure, then I'm keeping him.

With the 30th overall pick, I select Anthony Ranaudo

With my supplemental pick, I select Taijuan Walker

2010 - 2011 Roster moves are next.

[JMDurron]

2010 - 2011 Roster Moves, Part I

Departures

Huston Street departs. He was a reliever who was actually not a disappointment whatsoever, with 6 completely above-average seasons. His career ERA+ of 149 is actually right in line with his real 2005-2010 number of 148. He was even kind enough to have his best season in 2009, on that historically awesome Red Sox team, which got his best numbers into his FA Compensation calculation. He is a Type B Free Agent, my rotating closer tendencies really hurt me when these guys leave, but I'll take the supplemental pick and be pleased.

Prince Fielder also departs. How a slugger of his caliber, on this stacked team, can manage to play two uninjured seasons and never managed to crack the 100 RBI mark is a mystery to me. In terms of rate stats, he was consistent, and in-between his historical great 2009 and good 2010 seasons. He also did his part in the postseason, and the team's ALDS failures in both of his Boston seasons are not on his head. He was much closer to good than to great, but he was good enough to still depart as a Type A Free Agent.

Skip Schumaker is finally released. Probably should have done this a couple of years ago, but the OOTP Reserve Roster setup made me forget about his Option Years. Oops.

Draft Pick Compensation

Prince Fielder signs with the Florida Marlins. The Marlins had the 14th pick in the 2011 draft, which is therefore protected. I collect only a Supplemental Pick.

Huston Street signs with the New York Yankees. I collect a Supplemental Pick.

Callups

Matt Moore, Jesus Montero, Brandon Belt, and Dee Gordon join the squad. Or they are supposed to, I am getting "no such player" now that I've caught up to the modern game. I think my league uses a roster set that doesn't include 2011 prospects who saw real MLB playing time, and I'm not really inclined to try to create the players from scratch. I'll get back to this at the end here.

They join historical callup Jose Iglesias.

Positional Depth Summary

Catcher - Brian McCann (128/124), Buster Posey (45/115), Alex Avila (141/143), Jesus Montero (18/159). McCann is the starter, and then things get interesting. By "interesting", I mean "convenient". Avila can't be repressed any longer, but Posey gets injured anywhere, so that issue is resolved. Avila backs up McCann while Posey recovers. Montero is a late season call-up who can be hidden, and he's not exactly a catcher at this point (if ever) anyway. He might make for an emergency candidate for DH in the sim if the other candidates all suck.

First Base - Albert Pujols (147/150), Freddie Freeman (157/118), Brandon Belt (63/101), Zobrist (forced). Albert Pujols is the starting 1B. Freddie Freeman is a likely platoon DH candidate who plays some 1B. Brandon Belt is a backup 1B who may be hidden for most of the season, if he's available at all (see Callups section).

Second Base - Dustin Pedroia (159/131), Ben Zobrist (156/132), Jed Lowrie (88/83). Pedroia is the starter again, Zobrist is the all-world backup again, and Jed Lowrie is fresh out of option years. I want to see what Jed Lowrie can do, but 2008-2010 returns are not good, his ratings are complete garbage in the sim (which is odd, because he is rated much better in the MLB Quickstart that ships with OOTP, this normalized Historical Database seems different), and there may be no room on the roster for him.

Shortstop - Troy Tulowitzki (143/133), Ben Zobrist, Jed Lowrie, Dee Gordon (56/92), Jose Iglesias (13/81). Tulowitzki is the starter, Zobrist is the backup, Lowrie is in limbo, and Gordon and Iglesias are callups who will only appear in September.

Third Base - Evan Longoria (133/139), Jed Lowrie, Ben Zobrist (forced). Longoria is the starter, and you know the drill with the other two by now.

The Outfield - There's basically no way to break this up into component positions at this point, so we're all going to look at this together. Carlos Gonzalez (127/126), Jacoby Ellsbury (158/146), Josh Reddick (87/109), Brandon Belt (63/101), Desmond Jennings (63/128), Matt Kemp (161/171), Andre Ethier (135/120), Mike Stanton (150/141). So, here lies the rub. I have 5 players who historically got full playing time, plus 2 prospects who need more playing time, and 1 new arrival. I can probably get away with 4 and 1 here, respectively, and Belt would be in AAA even if he shows up in this database.

Among the 5 starters, this is actually much easier than it looks. I did not put this much effort into keeping Jacoby Ellsbury to see him leave now, and I came up with my data entry plan for him anyway. He's staying. I'm not getting rid of last season's AL MVP, so Carlos Gonzalez is staying. I'm also not getting rid of the guy who should have been the real 2011 NL MVP (on merit, not PED reasons), so Kemp is staying. Thus, it comes down to Mike Stanton and Andre Ethier. Ethier's bat has been nothing short of spectacular, as he is coming off of consecutive seasons with an OPS above .970. Mike Stanton had a respectable rookie campaign with an .822 OPS. The key differences are service time, and defense. Andre Ethier is entering his last season of team control, while Stanton just finished his first. Andre Ethier is apparently quite the butcher out in Fenway's RF, while Mike Stanton's small sample size results indicate excellent defensive capabilities. The first two differences trump the offensive output, particularly given the roster makeup of mashers who are sometimes defensively challenged. I think I need to upgrade the defense to get the most out of my pitching staff.

The 4 primary OFers shall be Gonzalez, Kemp, Ellsbury, and Stanton. Ellsbury will technically be the "4th OFer", but that's just because he is the only one who can cover all 3 fields competently (His arm? LALALALALA can't hear you!), and OOTP's AI can't handle shifting starters from one position to another if a backup player can't cover a particular spot. This also brings a nice 2 RHH, 2 LHH balance to the OF, so I can maximize platoon benefits. Andre Ethier goes onto the trading block.

The 2 prospects seeking more playing time are Josh Reddick and Desmond Jennings. Jennings can cover CF in a pinch, while Reddick cannot, plus Jennings has a better 2011 campaign. Jennings shall be the 5th OFer, but he most likely will be in AAA anyway, in order to accommodate Lowrie and maximize the PAs for the Big 4 in the OF. I'm not particularly concerned with trading Reddick, because I don't know what is career will bring, he has option years left in any calculation based on when he showed up in OOTP, and frankly because figuring out trades is something of a pain in my backside at this stage of the exercise, due to the lack of MLB needs and data to go on.

Andre Ethier is the lone trading block player at this point.

Starting Pitching Depth Summary

Clayton Kershaw (233.1/163), Tim Lincecum (217/130), Cole Hamels (216/138), Justin Masterson (216/124), Jon Lester (191.2/122), Tommy Hanson (130/105), Matt Moore (9.1/134).

Once again, this isn't as hard as it looks, thanks to Tommy Hanson's 2011 injury. His injury, as it turns out, appears to have been a partial tear in his rotator cuff that was not discovered until August. This future knowledge thing is quite handy, as I can simply pull Hanson much earlier in the year to keep his shoulder under tight surveillance (calling it "re-working his delivery" or something as necessary) in order to make room for Masterson without ditching Hanson. Matt Moore's IP count makes him irrelevant even if I can find
him.

Bullpen Depth Summary

Street's departure makes room for Cishek, and there are no new arrivals. How handy. Papelbon, Bard, Cishek, Romo, Bailey, Robertson, and Ziegler are the bullpen.

Final Trading Block

RF Andre Ethier.

Probably prospect hunting, but we'll see. I also need to investigate how to get 2011 prospects into the historical league, if it's possible, before proceeding.

The trade market post is next.

Edited by JMDurron, 11 December 2011 - 11:24 AM.

[JMDurron]

Update on Missing 2011 Prospects

It appears that there is no easy fix to my issues with Belt, Gordon, Montero, and Moore. The MLB Quickstart league that ships with OOTP includes these players, but there does not appear to be a specific database that I can point to in order to grab those players for another league via the Import functionality. It's not the end of the world, as my roster is full enough without them, and none of them (save possibly Montero as the RH side of a DH platoon) were in my plans for significant 2011 playing time, but it is something that I should have thought of prior to starting the 2010-2011 offseason.

It's just not worth creating them manually when I'm not planning on using them much, plus I wouldn't be willing to put the time in for all of the other teams anyway. It'd either be an unfair advantage or a ridiculous amount of work, so I'll just play on without them.

2010 - 2011 Trade Market

I have RF Andre Ethier to trade, so I'll see what I get offered for him. Francisco Liriano pops up, but he's in the last year of team control and isn't worth the expense relative to my other starters. It looks like I am going prospect hunting.

In order to simplify things a bit, I start by looking at Ethier's historical team, the Dodgers, and seeing if they have any BA Top 100 prospects that I would be interested in. In the pre-2011 rankings (the latest ones I have to go on), #26 Dee Gordon is already mine, but pitchers Zach Lee (#89) and Rubby de la Rosa (#90) are available. Rubby de la Rosa made the majors in 2011, but was jumped up from AA, so I feel that I could justify letting him season a bit if I traded for him. I want pitching prospects for the long-term to hedge against a lack of knowledge of future pitching performance, and I'd prefer to send Ethier back to his original team if I have a choice. Ethier's insane past two seasons make me think that Ethier for both Lee and de la Rosa is a reasonable deal, particularly for a team that is looking at an OF of Jason Bay, Xavier Paul, and Pat Burrell in 2011. Hunter Pence, as it turns out, is out for 6 months with a broken bone in his elbow. This trade meets my need to pitching prospects, and their needs for OF offense.

I trade Andre Ethier to the Los Angeles Dodgers for pitching prospects Zach Lee (BA 2011 #89) and Rubby de la Rosa (BA 2011 #90).

Roster Moves Part II is next.

[JMDurron]

2010 - 2011 Roster Moves, Part II

Post-Trade Roster Review

SP - Lincecum, Kershaw, Lester, Hamels, Masterson, Hanson (AAA/injured)
RP - Papelbon, Bard, Ziegler, Romo, Robertson, Bailey, Cishek
C - McCann, Avila, Posey (injured)
1B - Pujols, Freeman, Zobrist (forced)
2B - Pedroia, Zobrist, Lowrie
SS - Tulowitzki, Zobrist, Lowrie
3B - Longoria, Zobrist (forced), Lowrie
LF - Gonzalez, Ellsbury, Jennings (AAA), Reddick (AAA)
CF - Kemp, Ellsbury, Jennings (AAA), Kalish (AAA)
RF - Stanton, Ellsbury, Jennings (AAA), Reddick (AAA)

Historical Transactions

I do not trade for Andrew Miller, Adrian Gonzalez, Franklin Morales, Mike Aviles, Erik Bedard, or Conor Jackson.

I do not sign Drew Sutton, Carl Crawford, Matt Albers, Rich Hill, Dan Wheeler, Bobby Jenks, Hideki Okajima, Kevin Millwood, or Joey Gathright.

The 2011 season is next.

Edited by JMDurron, 11 December 2011 - 10:23 AM.

[JMDurron]

The 2011 Season

Position Players

C: Brian McCann over Jarrod Saltalamacchia (95 -> 124). Alex Avila (143) backs up.
1B: Albert Pujols over Adrian Gonzalez (155 -> 150). Ben Zobrist (118) backs up, plus Freeman from DH
2B: Dustin Pedroia (131). Zobrist backs up, followed by Jed Lowrie (83).
SS: Troy Tulowitzki over Marco Scutaro (110 -> 133). Zobrist, then Lowrie back up.
3B: Evan Longoria over Kevin Youkilis (123 -> 139). Zobrist and Lowrie back up.
LF: Carlos Gonzalez over Carl Crawford (85 -> 126). Jacoby Ellsbury (146) backs up, with Desmond Jennings (128) lurking in AAA as the 5th OFer.
CF: Matt Kemp over Jacoby Ellsbury (146 -> 171). Ellsbury backs up.
RF: Mike Stanton over JD Drew (68 -> 141). Ellsbury backs up, with Jennings lurking
DH: Freddie Freeman over David Ortiz (154 -> 118). Whoever the hot hand is among Avila, Zobrist, Lowrie, or Ellsbury sees time here as well.

Backups

Alex Avila - C, DH
Ben Zobrist - 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, DH
Jed Lowrie - 2B, SS, 3B, DH
Jacoby Ellsbury - LF, CF, RF, DH
Desmond Jennings - LF, RF

Starting Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw (233.1/163)
Tim Lincecum (217/130)
Cole Hamels (216/138)
Justin Masterson (216/124)
Jon Lester (191.2/222)

Tommy Hanson (130/105) - with more than 5 pitchers other than him, and a desire to preserve his arm for the long haul, I feel that an overabundance of caution with his rotator cuff is justifiable. It's incredibly convenient, of course, but with knowledge that there is a problem, I don't think it's totally unreasonable to go 100% Mother Hen on him this season. He's in AAA when he's not on the DL.

The Bullpen

Daniel Bard (73/128)
David Robertson (66/410)
Jonathan Papelbon (64.1/145)
Brad Ziegler (58.1/188)
Steve Cishek (54.2/149)
Sergio Romo (48/239)
Andrew Bailey (41.2/126)

The Pawtucket Shuttle

Situational Callups - Desmond Jennings

Injured regulars - Buster Posey, Tommy Hanson

Cup of Coffee/No Time - Jose Iglesias, Ryan Kalish (injured), Josh Reddick, Brandon Moss

Out of Phase/Stuck on a Warbird somewhere - Jesus Montero, Brandon Belt, Dee Gordon, Matt Moore

Iglesias could technically be in the last category as well, it's just that he'd get a PA when he pried it from my cold, dead hands anyway, so I don't care that he's not available.

Season Results

Historically, the 2011 Red Sox involved tearing hearts out while sucking. They also finished 3rd in the AL East, 7 games behind the Yankees, and 1 game behind the Wild Card-winning Rays.

On offense, we have our first huge downgrade in quite some time at DH. Freddie Freeman is no David Ortiz, but he may be necessary as a 1B as Pujols ages, and to keep him out of harm's way. 1B and 2B are equal to the original squad. SS and 3B are mild upgrades offensively, while the entire starting OF consists of large upgrades, plus Ellsbury seeing starter-level time as the 4th OF, rotating to all 3 positions and being a defensive replacement for either Kemp or Gonzalez as needed.

Defensively, I would expect McCann/Avila to be a mild upgrade over Salty/Varitek, if only due to Salty's rough start. 1B could actually be a slight downgrade, but I don't think the difference would be a large one. 2B is the same. SS is a tremendous defensive upgrade over a bad year for Scutaro by TotalZone. 3B is a mild upgrade according to TotalZone. I suppose I shouldn't cherrypick when I do or don't believe TZ, but I'm having some trouble buying Kevin Youkilis as a defensive asset at 3B. Average, maybe, but a positive value? Eh. Carlos Gonzalez is apparently equivalent to 2011 Crawford in LF. Thank goodness for Ellsbury! Matt Kemp is roughly equivalent to Ellsbury in CF in 2011, possibly a very slight upgrade (I have trouble buying that, as well). Mike Stanton is a significant upgrade over JD Drew in RF, it's basically "Drew in his Prime" type defense.

In the rotation, I'm not seeing many innings for Kyle Weiland and Andrew Miller. Kershaw pitches out of his mind, Lincecum and Hamels are ace-level, and Lester and Masterson are both very good. I'd be more worried about Doritos and chuckles than chicken and beer with this group.

Bard and Papelbon will not be run into the ground to end the season with this bullpen.

Two similar issues compared to reality do remain, though. Terry Francona has been managing the team even longer in this scenario, and the team is quite accustomed to a large level of success. Managerial burnout/health issues and laziness/fatigue from constant playoff runs are real issues that could impact this team.

With no real negative press coming into the season, the team does buy their own good reviews to a degree. They slump a bit out of the gate, and towards the end of the season. Despite the great group of offensive performers, they have trouble stringing hits together. Guys stub their toes a bit more than normal, boot a few more balls, and a few more pitches run into the opposing teams' bats on the sweet spot. A team that should be dominant is merely very good, and slumps into the postseason as a 95-win AL East winner, just ahead of the 94-win Yankees.

Due to significant control and conditioning issues, Lester is left out of the postseason rotation. In terms of the ALDS teams, without Alex Avila, the Detroit Tigers still dominate the AL Central, and win 90 games. The Texas Rangers lose no pieces, and still win the AL West and 96 games. The Rangers host the Yankees while the Red Sox host the Tigers.

In ALDS Game 1, the rain holds off just long enough to get the game in, allowing Verlander to work his magic for the entire game. He outpitches Tim Lincecum, who is left in just a tad too long by Francona. Clayton Kershaw is no Freddy Garcia in Game 2, and the series is tied going back to Detroit. Verlander is not ready to go in Game 3, Porcello goes instead, but he pitches the game of his life while the Tigers get lucky against Cole Hamels, and the Red Sox face elimination. Game 4 features Verlander and Lincecum again, and Lincecum has the better outing. Unfortunately, both Bard and Papelbon run out of gas in the late innings, and the Tigers celebrate an upset ALDS win.

The OOTP Sim is next.

[JMDurron]

2011 OOTP Season Simulation

Player Modifications

I am looking for players whose ratings are clearly completely out of whack compared to what they actually accomplished in 2011. Minor variations are fine, because we know that outlier performance seasons happen.

OOTP player ratings, as per my settings, are done on a 20-80 scale. A worthless player is rated in the 20s, with stars and superstars in the 60-80 range, usually 70-80. There is also an editor page in OOTP for each player where a projected stat line in a neutral, modern environment is displayed. If that line is completely out of whack with what the player actually accomplished in 2011, then I will edit that stat line to what the player actually accomplished if he played a full season. There is a "create current ratings based on stats" button that I can hit to generate updated ratings. I am going on the statline instead of the 20-80 scale alone, because the 20-80 scale is inclusive of defense and baserunning, whereas I can pretty easily gauge the projected stat line vs a player's real line from 2011.

This is how I will correct position players who are horribly out of line. Pitchers are so high-variance from year to year to begin with that I see no reason to really bother with them. Justin Masterson's 2011 might have been somewhat flukey, so it seems somewhat unreasonable to edit his ratings to push him in the direction of what be a statistical outlier. I feel better about position player results being more reliable, although I admit that I cannot back up that feeling with hard numbers offhand.

The first, most obvious player to look at is Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury is rated as a 22/80 player, with a projected stat line of 231/277/313, compared to his real line of 321/376/522. That is an OPS of .590 compared to .928, which I believe justifies a modification. The successful conversion puts Ellsbury as a 80/80 rated player, as his offense was the only thing holding his rating down.

The next player who jumps out is Brian McCann, rated 28/80. He is projected as a .630 OPS player compared to his real .817 line, which is rather odd given that he never had bad/injured seasons beforehand to skew his rating. This is even less justifiable than Ellsbury's initial rating. His corrected line coverts him to a 76/80 player.

Freddie Freeman (20/80) is the next candidate. His .386 OPS compared to a real .795 mark is just wrong. Updating his ratings put him at 57/80, which seems reasonable.

Jed Lowrie is actually another candidate, with a 26/80 rating. Upon further investigation, his projected .588 OPS is within 100 points of OPS of his .685 real line, so I leave him alone.

Matt Kemp also catches my eye at 63/80, because his 2011 was so great relative to his 2010 that I am expecting something to be rather off here. His projected .744 OPS is far below his real .986 line, which is understandable since 2011 was such an outlier year for Kemp, but a .744 OPS would also be the single worst season of his career as a full-time player. To split the difference without hard-coding him to what looks like a clear outlier season, I use his 162 game average line from b-ref, with a .846 ending OPS. This line puts Kemp as a 80/80 player.

Mike Stanton also gets a look at 56/80. His is because his defensive results would seem to bode well for a player with two seasons of 800+ OPS. His projection is for a .774 OPS, which is more than 100 points below his actual .893 result in his first full season. I think this is more likely to be his true talent level than in the case of Kemp, so I'm going with his actual 2011 line instead of averaging anything out. He goes to 78/80 post-modifications.

Desmond Jennings (21/80) is the last candidate. His OPS projection of .428 is completely out of line with his real .805 mark, even in a half-season sample. Jennings is up to 68/80 post-modifications.

Roster Note

Based on how I set things up in the narrative, Tommy Hanson was sent to the minors to be monitored for potential (we know it's there and building up) injury. Buster Posey was basically taken out by a traumatic event at the plate. The difference between those two events is key to my treatment of them in the sim, because I am leaving Hanson in AAA, but keeping Posey on the roster, because his injury has not happened yet. With any luck, it never will. This puts Avila in waiting again in AAA, but I didn't have to trade him because of letting the narrative playing time determine roster moves prior to the sim.

Preseason Predictions



*Blink Blink* How many runs scored? The expectations for Stanton explain some of that, but jeez. Also, check out Cishek making the "Top Ten Pitchers" list for the AL. It's a good thing relievers always meet expectations!

Season Walkthrough

Spring Training is spent forcing Zobrist to play 1B/3B, Ellsbury to play LF/RF, and seeing if Freddie Freeman is up for the DH spot. If he's not, liberal use of Zobrist, Ellsbury, and Posey will be called for. Freeman ends up not being obviously bad enough to merit being pulled from full-time play, so he gets to remain the starting DH heading into the season.

On April 15, Albert Pujols hits HR #400. The Red Sox finish April with a 23-4 record, leading the Rays in the AL East by 10.5 games. Albert Pujols is the AL Batter of the Month, with a 362/426/714 line and 11 HRs in 27 games. Freddie Freeman is the AL Rookie of the Month, with a 236/300/361 line in 21 games. Hmmm, I think the lack of other rookies is a bit of a problem here. A massive asterisk has to go next to this season's simulation. Freeman's poor line is mostly due to his uselessness against LHP, so he keeps the DH job vs RHP and gives up the PAs vs LHP to Jacoby Ellsbury. Ben Zobrist gets to backup every position but C against lefties, and I mostly pray that Kemp stays healthy.

On May 19, Mike Stanton hits for the cycle. The Sox end May with a 45-12 record, and a 18.5 game lead over the Rays in the East. Buster Posey takes over at C vs all RHP. Carlos Gonzalez gets owned by LHP, so Ellsbury moves from DH to LF vs LHP, and Jed Lowrie gets some DH time vs lefties.

The end of June brings a final record of 63-19 to Boston, along with a 28 game lead over the Rays.

In July, Clayton Kershaw, Albert Pujols, Dustin Pedroia, Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, and Mike Stanton are selected as AL All-Stars. On the 24th, Mike Stanton hits for the cycle again! The Sox end the month with a 82-26 record, and a 33.5 game lead in the AL East over the Rays. By the end of July, Buster Posey is the clear starting C over McCann against all opposing pitchers. Jed Lowrie continues to murder left-handed pitching as the part-time DH.

August ends with the Red Sox at 100-36, having clinched the AL East with a 38.5 game lead over the 2nd place Rays. Roster expansion brings Alex Avila, Desmond Jennings, Ryan Kalish, and Tommy Hanson aboard.

On September 6, Carlos Gonzalez suffers an elbow strain, and is lost for 3-4 weeks. Ellsbury moves into LF, with Jennings and Kalish backing up the OF spots. The Red Sox finish the season at 119-43, 45 games ahead of the Yankees. The Twins win the Wild Card again, and shall be the ALDS opponent again. Hopefully such cold sites lend themselves to a dose of revenge.

There are no surprises on the playoff roster. Justin Masterson is the least effective starter, which is fine because he is the best starter to convert to bullpen duty for the playoffs anyway. The playoff rotation is Lincecum-Hamels-Kershaw, with Lester in 4th position and Masterson supporting from the bullpen. Jacoby Ellsbury, with rotations to keep positional players fresh somewhat irrelevant in October, takes over DH duty vs RHP from Freddie Freeman. He covers LF with Carlos Gonzalez moving to DH. Jed Lowrie remains the best DH option vs LHP.

Game 1 is Francisco Liriano vs Tim Lincecum at Fenway Park. Lincecum is not impressive, allowing 4 ERs over 6 IP. The Red Sox trail 4-3 in the 7th, when Troy Tulowitzki hits a Grand Slam to put the Red Sox up for good. The bullpen holds the line, and the Sox win 8-4. Scott Baker takes on Cole Hamels in Game 2, and Hamels is untouchable, throwing 7 shutout innings. Buster Posey drives in all 4 Boston runs, and the final is 4-0. Clayton Kershaw vs Brad Penny is begging for a reverse lock in Game 3, and that is borne out as Cody Ross drives in the deciding runs in a 3-2 Twins victory. Lincecum and Liriano face off again in Game 4, and once again, Liriano gives the Twins the lead late into the game. Trailing 3-1 after 6, the Red Sox score 1 in the 7th, and then 4 in the 8th to finish off the Twins with a 6-4 victory.

The Red Sox face the AL West-winning Angels in the ALCS. Game 1 features Cliff Lee against Tim Lincecum. Lee is outstanding, while Lincecum fails to go 5 innings, and the Angels win 4-1. Game 2 is King Felix against Cole Hamels at Fenway, and Hernandez is untouchable while Hamels gets hit solidly by the Angels. The Red Sox fall 6-0, and the series is looking bleak as things shift to the West Coast.

Clayton Kershaw challenges Jered Weaver in Game 3, and the Red Sox score 3 unearned runs on 2 Angels errors to steal a 4-2 victory. Lincecum and Lee face off again in Game 4, and this time, Lincecum throws 7 shutout innings while the Red Sox lineup waits out Cliff Lee. Lee only allows 1 run, but pitches only 6 innings, and the Sox pile up 6 runs in 3 innings against the Angels bullpen en route to a 7-2 victory. Hamels and Hernandez face off again in Game 5, with the series now tied. With the Sox up 3-2 in the 7th, the Angels try to get one inning too many out of King Felix. 5 runs later, the Red Sox are on their way back to Fenway with a 3-2 series lead. Kershaw hosts Weaver in Game 6, and the Red Sox lineup decides that they have had enough of this "best playoff rotations to ever oppose each other" crap, and they go absolutely nuts. The Red Sox bang out 16 hits, including 6 HRs (2 each for Posey and Ellsbury) during a 14-2 romp. The Red Sox are finally back in the World Series after several consecutive seasons of playoff frustration.

Tulowitzki's old team, the Colorado Rockies, await in the World Series. In Game 1 at Fenway Park, Tim Lincecum hosts Jhoulys Chacin on the mound. Chacin never sees the train that hits him. Lincecum has a 6 IP, 2 ER outing, while the Red Sox manage 19 hits and a 13-2 victory. Pujols leads the way with 3 hits and 4 RBIs. Ubaldo Jimenez faces Cole Hamels in Game 2, and in the midst of an 8th inning Rockies rally, Sergio Romo hits Hanley Ramirez with a pitch, sparking a bench-clearing brawl. When the dust settles, I have successfully traded a reliever for the opponent's star SS for the next 5 games. Adding insult to injury, the Red Sox win 5-3.

NOTE:The OOTP suspension logic is rather curious. When a player is suspended for 5 games, it happens instantaneously, and includes the game in which the player was ejected. So in theory, Hanley and Romo could return for a potential Game 7.

The series shifts to Colorado for Game 3, forcing Ellsbury/Lowrie from the lineup. Clayton Kershaw faces old friend Matt Cain. Once again, the Red Sox pounce on the opposing bullpen, turning a 1-0 lead into a 5-0 lead with a 4-run 8th inning, keyed by HRs by Stanton and Posey. The Sox win 5-1, and stand on the verge of a World Series sweep. Chacin is all that stands between the Rockies and the abyss against Lincecum and the Sox. He throws 5.1 shutout innings, compared to Lincecum's lone run allowed over 5 IP. With the game tied 1-1 in the top of the 9th inning, Mike Stanton hits a 2-run HR off of Ryan Madsen to put the Red Sox up 3-1, which is the final score.

The Red Sox win their 21st World Series in 2011, finally surpassing the Yankees for the most World Series titles in MLB history.

OOTP Sim Postseason Analysis is next.

Edited by JMDurron, 11 December 2011 - 07:23 PM.

[JMDurron]

2011 OOTP Sim Postseason Analysis

The team finished 119-43, 1 game over the pyth record of 118-44. The Sox led the AL in runs scored with 1060, and in runs allowed with 622, while being 3rd in defense. Losing Ethier was a big help on that front.

The Real 2011 Boston Red Sox

Position Players



C - Brian McCann was quite a disappointment, failing to match Salty's 2011 campaign, nevermind his own baseline. Thankfully, a fully healthy and equally productive Buster Posey was available to take over. Posey had the job all to himself by October, in which he was the team's MVP, with a 1.313 OPS and 6 HRs in 14 postseason games.

1B - Albert Pujols was right on target, essentially matching himself while coming up just short of Adrian Gonzalez. Freddie Freeman was a mild disappointment, but only a mild one, because against RHP alone, which is the only time he was DHing in the 2nd half of the season, he was right on his original rates. He was no 2011 David Ortiz, but who is? I expect that 2012 David Ortiz won't be 2011 David Ortiz, either, so it's hardly a sin. For the first time, Albert Pujols was below-average in the postseason, with a .652 OPS. It's fortunate that the rest of the team decided to show up this time, so he's off the hook.

2B - Dustin Pedroia underperformed himself slightly in the regular season, and massively in the postseason. His .562 postseason OPS was the worst on the team. Ben Zobrist was quite the disappointment, being merely average and not meriting more playing time. This was good news for Lowrie, though.

SS - Troy Tulowitzki exceeded even his own lofty standards here, nevermind those of Marco Scutaro. Jed Lowrie got in on the pleasant surprise action as well, mashing LHP as a platoon DH with Freeman. He hit too poorly against righties to take any of Zobrist's regular PAs as a backup against them. Tulo kicked it up a notch in October with his 1.107 OPS, and Lowrie posted an impressive .924 OPS in 4 postseason games. Oddly enough, Lowrie's moments in the sun were enabled by Jacoby Ellsbury making a 5th OFer completely unnecessary, leaving a roster spot free for Lowrie.

3B - Evan Longoria slightly outdid himself as well, doing much better than Kevin Youkilis. He failed to keep up the pace in October, with a .630 OPS.

LF - Carlos Gonzalez, making a run at another MVP award, absolutely destroyed his own expected numbers. He was just a touch better than Carl Crawford. His rate stats were awesome, and his counting stats were only brought down by his lost month due to injury. He still managed to add 100 points of OPS to his regular season line in October, when he returned from the DL just in time to not miss a single postseason game.

CF - Neither Matt Kemp nor Jacoby Ellsbury met their baselines, but when they were both excellent and good instead of being otherworldly and excellent, respectively, it's hard to complain too much. Kemp did actually manage to still beat Ellsbury's baseline, so he was an upgrade as the starting CF. It was a tale of two Octobers for them, though, as Kemp went down (.696 OPS), while Ellsbury kept going (.904).

RF - Mike Stanton managed to outdo himself a bit, obviously annihilating Drew's parting season. Stanton didn't miss a beat in the postseason, he was consistent for 7 months instead of just 6.

Pitching Staff



Only Lincecum and Hamels were on target as ace-level starters, but at least all of Lester, Masterson, and Kershaw were still distinctly above-average. The pitching staff always seems to manage to underperform their baselines a bit as a whole, I wonder how much of that is Fenway, as opposed to being poor defense or some piece of logic in the sim going "oh hell no, you don't get to do that!" Or, they could just be getting Orsilloed by the lineup, getting rusty while sitting on the bench for one 25-minute offensive rally after another.

Or, it could be the OOTP AI going to the bullpen early and often, judging from these IP totals. All but 3 relievers throw more innings than the horse of the group threw historically. Looks like the AI has an itchy trigger finger. Of course, I shouldn't complain, when one looks at how studly the top 3 innings-eaters were. Factoring in Bard, the top 4 relievers were basically the equal of any 2 starters in terms of number and quality of innings pitched. That's pretty sweet, actually.

In the postseason, finally, the pitching staff of aces pitched like it. The top 3 starters, by IP with ERA, were all studly. Lincecum (37/2.68), Hamels (26.1/2.39), and Kershaw (23.1/1.54) kept the other team from ever building a significant lead on them, which was a major part of all of those late-inning rallies that led to postseason victories. Two of the top relievers underperformed in October, namely Bard (8/4.5) and Romo (8/4.5). Still, a 4.50 ERA being the worst that the bullpen has to offer is still pretty darn good. The other 3 in the top 5 were all quite excellent, between Bailey (9/3.00), Papelbon (4.2/0.00), and Cishek (4/2.25). There was no goat on the pitching staff this season, therefore the team is bringing home the hardware.

Years of Control and Extensions

I don't really have to care about this much anymore, but hey, I've set a precedent and I'm sticking to it. There are 9 cost-controlled players heading to arb this offseason, and they fall into 3 categories.

Daniel Bard is a super-two, and gets a 4-year extension.

Clayton Kershaw, Justin Masterson, Andrew Bailey, David Robertson, Evan Longoria, Carlos Gonzalez, and Jacoby Ellsbury are all looking at 3 more years of team control. The pitchers all get 3-year deals. Evan Longoria is someone who, like Pujols or Tulowitzki, I consider to be a cornerstone of the franchise. Premium offense, premium defense, and consistency all together in the same package. He gets a deal through his age 32 season, so a 6-year deal through 2017. The same applies to Carlos Gonzalez, who, despite being a corner OF only (by def ratings at least), has been a good enough defender and massive offensive force that I feel he should be built around. He gets a 6-year deal through 2017 as well. Ellsbury is too high variance, and just gets a 3-year deal.

Sergio Romo, who refused to negotiate a long-term deal last year, has two years of control left, and so I negotiate a 2-year deal with him.

Leaders and Awards

Gold Glove - Evan Longoria (3B) -- Amusingly, the RF Gold Glove goes to Orioles RF Darnell McDonald
Cy Young - Tim Lincecum

Carlos Gonzalez does not win the AL MVP Award, losing out (and rightfully so) to Matt Joyce and his 41 HR, 141 RBI, 1.089 OPS season.

The 2011 Draft is next.

[JMDurron]

The 2011 Draft

Historically, the Red Sox had 4 1st round picks in the 2011 draft. The Red Sox gained the #19 pick from the Tigers for losing Victor Martinez. They lost the 24th overall pick to the Rays for signing Carl Crawford. The Sox also gained the 26th overall pick from the Rangers for the loss of Adrian Beltre. There were also two supplemental picks for the losses of Martinez and Beltre. Those 4 picks were used on Matt Barnes, Blake Swihart, Henry Owens, and Jackie Bradley.

I have no idea who any of those guys are, I think I've caught a reference to Barnes and Swihart once.

I have 3 picks, #30 overall, a supplemental pick for the loss of Prince Fielder, and another supplemental pick for the loss of Huston Street.

I have less than nothing in terms of information to go on here. I don't even have the same number of picks where I could say "I have no idea if these guys will flame out, and no idea who might be better, so I'll just keep them all". A casual glance at the SoxProspects homepage indicates that Barnes and Swihart are two of the ones that I want to keep. Between Owens and Bradley, I'll go with the pitching prospect due to potential future needs. I am making the assumption that Barnes will be available 11 spots later. One of the folks here who follow the draft more closely can correct me there as needed, it's not like I'll be simming 2012 and will need to change anything else downstream afterwards.

With the 30th overall selection, I select Matt Barnes. If I knew if/when he'd arrive, I'd be in Vegas instead of posting this.

With my first supplemental pick, I select Blake Swihart.

With my second and final supplemental pick, I select Henry Owens.

A final look at the roster is next.

[JMDurron]

The End - Roster Summary

Following the 2011 season, only Brian McCann (Type B) is due to depart. OOTP has a handy "Salary Obligations" screen that gives the player a great view, sorted by salary, of when each player is due to hit free agency. You can construct a pretty reasonable view of the contracts on the MLB roster just from this screen, along with the total team payroll.



OOTP's deflated salaries loom large here. 9.5 million for Pujols? A 92.5 Million Dollar Payroll? That is now tops in the league, BTW, all of my 4-5-6 year arb guys have finally caught up with me. Setting that aside and looking at the future, I'm leaving a pretty sweet setup for Ben Cherington to work with here.

Aside from McCann's departure, the 2011 team is basically locked in again for 2012. Here's a look at how things seem to shake out.

As an aside, there is a last arb year "(A)" on the final year for several players who I think will hit free agency on those years, so keep that in mind. I think that seems to be there for all of the cost-controlled players, presumably to allow for option year service time delays. I assume no delays in all of my descriptions below.

Starting Pitching - Tommy Hanson can't be hidden due to injury, so I'd be looking to trade Justin Masterson, as the weakest sim link. If/when that happens, there are 5 established starters signed for 2012, and several for beyond. Kershaw through 2014, Lester through 2012, Hamels through 2013, Lincecum through 2013, and Hanson through 2017 if he's never sent down again. If one considers Matt Moore, who doesn't exist in this sim but should really be there, that's a 6th starter for 2012 and ready-made Lester replacement in 2013. There are also prospects Taijuan Walker, Zach Lee, and Robby de la Rosa in the minors, plus the current Sox pitching prospects.

Relief Pitching - Things are set up quite well to not have more than 1-2 spots opening up at any one time in the near future. Papelbon is gone after the 2012 season, Romo and Ziegler are gone after 2013, Bailey and Robertson are out after 2014, Bard is out after 2015, and Cishek is gone after 2016. It should be reasonably simple for the Front Office to supplement the core with free agents, or extending guys as needed.

Catcher - McCann may be gone, but Alex Avila is looking at a full 6 years of service time, plus Buster Posey is around through 2015. Throw in "catching" prospect Jesus Montero, plus actual C prospect Derek Norris, and you have stupendous depth. Avila or one of the prospects should probably be flipped to fill another hole, if one forms.

First Base - The Albert Pujols decision after 2013 is a heavy one. If he seems healthy, I don't envy Cherington's choice. I'll keep an eye on it from my personal island bought via well-timed stock moves. Much will depend on how Freddie Freeman develops, as he is controlled through 2016. Brandon Belt, whose 6 years start in 2012, might also be a major part of this solution. If Cherington believes in Belt (or Lars Andersen, for that matter), he might be well-served by letting Pujols depart.

Second Base - Dustin Pedroia is a free agent after 2012, so a hard decision will have to be made on him, as well. The job could simply be handed to Ben Zobrist, but that's just putting off the problem for a single additional year. The odds of Lowrie developing into a full-time starting 2B seem rather long. He might very well merit an extension.

Shortstop - Tulowitzki has this one covered through 2016. Lowrie could be kept on as the semi-permanent backup, although his option years are long since gone. Once again, much will depend on the organization's opinions of SS prospects Dee Gordon and Jose Iglesias. This is another area to trade from as needed.

Third Base - Another position of long-term strength, courtesy of Evan Longoria's extension through 2017. Lowrie seems to be the logical backup here through 2015.

Outfield - It's difficult to separate positions here. Carlos Gonzalez clearly has a corner (preferably LF) locked up through 2017. Matt Kemp should almost certainly be let go after the 2012 season, with Jacoby Ellsbury representing the CF solution through 2014. Mike Stanton is also a clear corner OF starter through 2015. This leaves prospects Desmond Jennings, Ryan Kalish, Brandon Belt (if he's not just a 1B), and Josh Reddick starved for playing time. Assuming that 1 player can maintain my near-starter playing time levels as the 4th OFer, there's still significant depth to be traded here. My inclination would be to keep Jennings and trade both Kalish and Reddick, but I'm not sure how obvious the choice is. In any case, aside from playing time crunches, there are no issues here with the cupboard being left bare. There is literally no position where the team is in danger of playing some variant of Nick Green or Darren Lewis as a starter for the next few years.

A final wrap-up post is all that remains.

Edited by JMDurron, 11 December 2011 - 10:30 PM.

[JMDurron]

Final Thoughts

The GM Time Machine

This has actually been quite a fun Red Sox history lesson for me overall, going back to the 1974 start. I'm really glad that SeanBerry started this initial idea with his original thread, even if the crowd-sourced GM exercise didn't work out. I'm also rather thankful that JMOH played the role of Lou Gorman, asking me where I'd find room for the guys I was drafting. That was, essentially, the question that led to two video game purchases, a lot of thinking of my part, an a bunch of posts over a 14-month period.

There are more intellectually rigorous or less convenient ways to go about a similar exercise, but this has just been outright fun, even if the particular implementation has been tedious at times. I kept catching oversights and correcting myself as I went along, and now I think I've ended up with the best game available for thought experiments like this one to play with going forward.

OOTP 12 Historical Simulations

As I mentioned earlier in the thread, there are a number of settings I would change before doing a simular exercise again. Those settings that immediately spring to mind are:

- Random L/R splits. I think this over-corrected and made some players more platoon-heavy than they really should have been.

- Cash limits. I'm pretty sure this was part of what screwed up the Yankees, the OOTP historical year-by-year financial settings pull way too much of the profits out of all of the teams, even the ones with the generous owners. The lack of cash revenues available is a large part of the unrealistically low salaries for players. I believe I will have to edit out the cash limit number from the actual financials.txt file as opposed to correcting this in-game should I do anything similar in the future.

- Neutralized vs Real stats. I think I would try Real stats next time. The 3-year recalc is certainly the way to go, though.

More general ideas, as opposed to specific settings, include not siming past the game's ship date, because the historical rookies piece gets cut off. Obviously, a historical Db that ships with the game won't have rookie who have never appeared in MLB yet, so I should have factored that in earlier and made plans to stop after 2010. It was more luck than planning that led to all of my 2011 rookies being extra pieces, as opposed to core necessities for the season simulation.

What's Next?

In terms of posts, nothing. I actually want to go back and play some of these seasons out myself, because I've noticed things like not stealing enough bases (Ozzie Smith, Ellsbury) and poor bullpen utilization that I think I can do better myself. I also want to give my alternate settings a shot to see if the league financials work out better, particularly with regards to the Yankees. Ideally, they would not permanently suck, but I'd always beat them. I'm not greedy!

The thought of doing the manual play (plus continuing my own MLB Quickstart in OOTP) prevented any significant burnout from occurring, so I don't expect to kick off another wave of posts/threads along a different timeline. I'm going to be perfectly content to just play my new favorite computer game for a while.

Aside from possibly editing in other OOTP settings thoughts when I go to re-create the league for my manual replay, this is it.

Thanks again to those who inspired this thought experiment (SeanBerry and SJH), the developers of Baseball Mogul and Out of the Park Baseball, and those who asked interesting questions and provided encouragement when things got particularly tedious and I wavered as to whether or not I wanted to continue.

[JMDurron]

In terms of posts, nothing. I actually want to go back and play some of these seasons out myself, because I've noticed things like not stealing enough bases (Ozzie Smith, Ellsbury) and poor bullpen utilization that I think I can do better myself. I also want to give my alternate settings a shot to see if the league financials work out better, particularly with regards to the Yankees. Ideally, they would not permanently suck, but I'd always beat them. I'm not greedy!

The thought of doing the manual play (plus continuing my own MLB Quickstart in OOTP) prevented any significant burnout from occurring, so I don't expect to kick off another wave of posts/threads along a different timeline. I'm going to be perfectly content to just play my new favorite computer game for a while.

 

So, given that the present seems to offer relatively little in terms of enjoyable Red Sox thoughts, I'd thought I'd tack on a couple posts on the manual replay.  I've been going back and forth between this replay and a modern game (OOTP's prospect development is a ton of fun, and nothing's quite as enjoyable as tearing down the 2012 Red Sox stock roster and salting the Earth beneath it so that it can never again return), so it took me until now...to finish the 1970s. 

 

Some fun things happened along the way that I thought a few hunkered-down blizzard sufferers might get a kick out of.  I'll break this up into a few posts for the sake of readability, but first:

 

Basic Team Recap

 

So, somewhat as expected, manually controlling the team had a major impact.  Speedsters actually stole bases, relievers were actually inserted/removed like a logical human being might be inclined to do, and bench players were used to try to prevent injuries to starters during blowout games, win or lose.  This led to improved performance in almost every area from season to season.  The W-L record does not necessarily reflect a cakewalk through each season, though, as I will get into in a subsequent post. 

 

The other major change from my manually managing the team is an emphasis on plate discipline.  I tend to manage historical teams the way I wish they had been managed, so I naturally bring a more 2003-2005 offensive mentality to the exercise.  This was, naturally, applied to every PA for every player, which had some...interesting results in a couple of cases.  Let's take Andre Dawson and Jim Rice and make them selective hitters, shall we?  Oh, and Dwight Evans showed what he can do if he never got beaned.  Yaz even went "fuck no you're not benching me" through several seasons, outplaying Cooper, Lynn, and even Rice in one season. 

 

Essentially, OOTP is way too kind to a player with plate discipline when combined with my particular settings.  I can't tell you how much this upsets me.

 

The AL Pennant was won every year from 1974-1979, with World Series wins against the Dodgers, Giants, and Reds in 1974-1976.  The 1977 defeat was to...the Montreal Expos.  They went 86-76 that year and just got hot in the postseason.  1978 and 1979 featured wins over the Phillies and Giants. 

[JMDurron]

Interesting League Notes

 

First off, the Yankees still sucked.  75, 86, 75, 67, 73, and 68 wins from 1974-1979 in this replay.  I wasn't able to consistently keep the cash max where I wanted it to be, but ultimately the problem is that the Yankees of the era were too dependent on the kind of FA signings and trades that OOTP (version 13 now) throws a heavy dose of randomness into.  The A's, for example, never let Reggie Jackson leave, and the same applies to Bobby Bonds in San Francisco.  OOTP made up for this with moves made by another AL East rival, now my fellow superpower.

 

The Rival

 

From 1976-1979, the Detroit Tigers won 99, 93, 107, and 97 games.  I won the AL East by 1 game each in 1976 and 1978.  Historically, the Tigers won 74, 74, 86, and 85 games in those seasons.  So, what happened?

 

In 1976, the Tigers got ridiculous seasons from Jason Thompson and Ben Oglive, relative to their historical norms.  The real difference was in their pitching staff, where instead of Mark Fidrych and a pile of garbage, the Tigers trotted out Dave Goltz, He was acquired from the Twins in 1974, just in time for the peak of his career.  Mickey Lolich was not allowed to depart, and ended up being healthy and productive.  Woodie Fryman was also retained, and had his good 1976 season in Detroit instead of in Montreal. 

 

The good news is that there were a bunch of flukes in that season, so normally I would have expected them to fade away, for the Orioles or Yankees to assert themselves.  Except that didn't happen.  With my low injury settings, Mark Fidrych was healthy and productive in 1977, along with Goltz and Dave Rozema, who was basically what he was for the historical 1977 team.  Mickey Lolich also did not miss a season, throwing over 200 IP of league average ball.  Adding to my dismay, gentlemen by the names of Trammell, Whitaker, and Morris joined the party.

 

Fortunately, I knew I just had to outlast the career of Fidrych, with Goltz and Rozema due to become mediocre as Lolich retired.  Trammell and Whitaker would not be enough of a threat by themselves from 1978 onward.

 

Then, the Phillies went and screwed everything up.  I mentioned before that Reggie Jackson never left Oakland in the mid-70s, nor did Bobby Bonds leave San Francisco.  This phenomenon works both ways, however, with some teams letting their classic franchise icons depart.  In 1979 (heading into 1980) for example, the Royals declined to retain George Brett, who signed with the Pirates.  In the 1977-1978 offseason, the Philadelphia Phillies let Mike Schmidt hit free agency.  The Tigers signed him. 

 

Spoiler

 

So, the 1978 Tigers had an IF of an overperforming Jason Thompson at 1B, Lou Whitaker, Alan Trammell, and Mike Schmidt.  They did not exactly quake in fear before the awesomeness of Butch Hobson and Jerry Remy.  Oh yes, and they also declined to let Ben Oglive depart for Milwaukee, making for a solid OF trio as well.  I only won the AL East due to Fidrych being healthy, but not dominant, with neither Goltz nor Rozema overperforming. 

 

1979 did not feature any major positional changes in Detroit, beyond adding Thurman Munson (hah!), but Mike Schmidt did decide to go ahead and hit 54 HRs and post an (OOTP uses a different formula, but still) 11.0 WAR season.  Thankfully, they couldn't pitch, even with the addition of Frank Tanana, who was heading towards mediocrity at this point anyway. 

 

Heading into 1980, I'm not laughing about Thurman Munson anymore, because the Tigers went out and signed Gary Carter to replace him.  If adding Doc Medich does anything for the pitching staff (mediocrity all around, but with that lineup?), then the early 1980s are going to be just like the late 1970s - a dogfight with the Tigers whenever the Red Sox rotation fails to measure up.  The Tigers basically are the Yankees in this little universe, heading into the 1980s with Gary Carter, Mike Schmidt, Alan Trammell, Lou Whitaker, and an apparent taste for spending money on top talent. 

 

By the mid-80s (Boggs, Sandberg, Mattingly) it won't matter, but for the turn of the decade, I am in for an interesting pennant chase. 

[JMDurron]

It's worth noting that in both 1976 and 1978, I did not actually beat the Tigers by 1 game in the regular season.  The Red Sox defeated the Tigers in a 1-game playoff in both seasons. 

 

In 1976, the final was 11-10, in Detroit, with the Red Sox nearly blowing a 8-2 lead.  Fergie Jenkins threw 3.2 IP of scoreless relief for Reggie Cleveland, and then the bullpen held back the onslaught just long enough. 

 

In 1978, the Red Sox won 12-2.  Rick Sutcliffe pitched a complete game. 

[JMDurron]

Player Notes

 

Jim Rice, meet plate discipline.  Plate discipline, meet Jim Rice.

 

 

So, Jim Ed isn't quite the HR hitter that he was in real life, because he's trading hacks for walks.  Better for the team overall, but he loses 12 HRs even with significantly more playing time in 1974 than he had historically.  I think I'll take the added 54 points of OBP leading to 20 more points of OPS, though.  He was closer to his original 1978 self during the March to the World Series, that 1526 OPS was quite helpful.  Rice did still win the AL MVP in 1978. 

 

Up next, Hawk goes to Fenway.  How does Mr. Dawson like hitting in the 1970s Fenway Park AND taking a more disciplined approach at the plate?

 

 

I originally goofed and forgot that he appeared in 1976 instead of 1977, so I traded for him midseason when I realized he was accumulating stats in Montreal.  Oops.  Compared to his historical baseline of 69 HRs and a .763 OPS (OPS+ of 109) through 1979, I'd say he's been an early bloomer.  He's also been a complete defensive stud in CF, allowing Lynn to move to be a great LFer to compliment Evans in RF.  I think he likes Fenway. 

 

So far, I'd say that Rice and Dawson are both well on their way to being players who deserve to be in the HOF, at least in this little alternate reality. 

 

Dewey

 

 

I tend to forget that Dewey discovered both his plate discipline and his power in the 1980s, because his historical .341 OBP through 1979 came as a surprise to me.  A healthy 1977 is certainly a major factor here, but ultimately, he is blooming early just like Andre Dawson is.  I think the overall team approach at the plate is driving more PAs, which drives more chances for counting stats, Rice has just been unlucky with HRs while Evans and Dawson have been more fortunate.  Evans was the 1976 AL MVP.  He has 70 more HRs and 110 more points of OPS compared to his historical baseline.  His defense took a bizarre hit in RF in 1979 (hence the WAR dropping relative to his VORP, OOTP WAR is just (VORP/10 * ZR/10)), but otherwise he has been a complete stud and cornerstone of the team. 

 

Yaz

 

 

Yaz has been my other pleasant surprise, in the sense that he has continued to earn playing time following the addition of Dawson to the team in 1977 as a full-time player.  Fred Lynn (1975 MVP again) slumped a bit in 1977, sacrificing playing time to Yaz as a result.  Yaz played Cooper essentially to a draw at the plate in 1978 and 1979, while Rice completely sucked against LHP in 1979, allowing Yaz to be the starter at DH for those games. 

 

The sad news for Yaz is that, with my narrative having him retire after 1980 (since I had no reason to expect him to be so good as to get tons of playing time in 1978 and 1979), he is going to come up just short of 3000 hits and 400 HRs by the end of the season, even if he repeats his performance to date.  I think it's still reasonable to expect him to get tired of being a backup or platoon player and retire instead of hanging on to hit those milestones, it's just unfortunate that he'll have to "settle" for the rings instead of the personal achievements here.  Yaz deserves both.  Bernie Carbo's excellence from 1974-1977 denied Yaz the playing time he needed to rack up the counting stats. 

 

Finally, one note on a pleasant surprise coming off the bench.  Butch Hobson, in both 1978 and 1979, was both an offensive disappointment and a complete defensive, well, butcher.  This left me scrambling to find a bench player to take the helm at 3B, and Rick Burleson was too busy making up for Remy's disappointing time at 2B to help out at the corner.  Help came from an unlikely source.

 

 

Jack Brohamer came up with a 3 WAR season out of nowhere in 1978, with positive defense and nearly a .800 OPS.  In 1979, he was half of a platoon with Burleson, as Hobson managed to be less effective at the plate than either of them.  However, Brohamer made up for it by going nuts in the postseason, with a .524 average in the games for his half of the platoon.  Given the push that the Tigers made in 1978, his contribution was likely the difference between a World Series and golfing in October. 

 

In other player news, OOTP (versions 12 and 13) apparently loathes Bill Lee.  0 above average seasons from 1974-1979 by ERA+, so there's generally been a scramble for backup starters (Ripley, Rainey, etc.) behind Eck, Sutcliffe, and Jenkins. 

 

I think that's about all worth sharing, will edit or post in anything else if I think of it.