73 replies to this topic

[MikeM]

I've seen nothing on Beltran looking for four years. And what's the infatuation with Cuddyer anyway and who would honestly try and make a case of him being a better contract than Beltran? It's not like he hasn't had his fair share of dings and bruises, either. If the prices on both are even remotely comparable, then I'm buying Beltran all day. He's a better player.

IDK, i'm usually as skeptical as they come when it comes to favorable market speculation, but in Beltran's case i just have a really hard time seeing anybody out there with a guaranteed 4 year interest. Certainly not an NL team due to his age/declining D/injury risk factor, and not with the market value on DH's trending the way it has been the last few years. I could reasonably see 3 years, although i'd probably be hesitant on our behalf if that 3rd year wasn't coming in the form of a vesting/team-friendly option.

The infatuation with Cuddyer is simply due to thin market aspect, which will probably play out to land him way more money then he'd otherwise be looking at. He's got 2nd tier "i can't get the best free agent players to look at my team/offer over the similar ones out of Boston, NY, ectt , so i'm just gonna settle on throwing a bunch of money at this guy" written all over him, imo.

[Tyrone Biggums]

As opposed to what, committing a little less (for a potentially longer duration) on that soon to be 33 year old outfielder with the downgrade bat?

He wouldn't be a longer duration, neither would a guy like Cody Ross. Remember you have to assume that they have 40-50 million to spend to fix all of their issues. The Sox need to reconstruct and entire bullpen aside from Bard (since Aceves is heading to the rotation), sign multiple starting pitchers at least 2, just incase if the Aceves experiment doesn't stick. They need a right fielder, a DH...this team has a lot of needs. I just don't see the sense it would make to give Beltran a multiyear deal even if its slightly less than J.D. Drew money. Remember this isn't fantasy baseball, teams have budgets and sometimes the biggest names aren't the best fits. Cuddyer was an example but I used him because he has a solid bat and can play anywhere but SS. Worst case scenario, you end up sticking him at 3rd and Youk at DH and Kalish/Reddick in RF on some days.

I also wouldn't be opposed to the Sox getting into the hunt for Prado/Jurrjens and just throwing Lavarnway into the DH role. Prado doesn't have Beltran's bat, but could still be a solid player that can play multiple positions and give Pedroia Youk Lowrie a rest at those spots when needed and put them at DH for a day or two a week. I just don't really like the Beltran or bust thoughts, there are other options out there.

Edited by Tyrone Biggums, 20 November 2011 - 10:06 AM.

[untilthebombs]

He wouldn't be a longer duration, neither would a guy like Cody Ross. Remember you have to assume that they have 40-50 million to spend to fix all of their issues.

Anything to support the 40-50MM? I'm assuming it's based off the expected difference between the luxury tax and current commitments. I think it's probably a fair assumption that they wouldn't go over, but yet wouldn't completely rule it out.

The Sox need to reconstruct and entire bullpen aside from Bard (since Aceves is heading to the rotation), sign multiple starting pitchers at least 2, just incase if the Aceves experiment doesn't stick. They need a right fielder, a DH...this team has a lot of needs. I just don't see the sense it would make to give Beltran a multiyear deal even if its slightly less than J.D. Drew money. Remember this isn't fantasy baseball, teams have budgets and sometimes the biggest names aren't the best fits. Cuddyer was an example but I used him because he has a solid bat and can play anywhere but SS. Worst case scenario, you end up sticking him at 3rd and Youk at DH and Kalish/Reddick in RF on some days.

The difference between the expected AAV of Ortiz and Beltran is the $ of a poor reliever. The money will likely to be commited to a single player. To which point the case could be made that offense equal, it makes sense to commit to a player that can play the field to average, Beltran over Ortiz.

According to UZR, Cuddyer has never been an average defender, anywhere. Worst case scenario, the Sox could stick Lavarnway in RF, doesn't mean they should. The reality of the situation is also that Cuddyer is one of the big names in this year's market. He's expected to get around 3 years, at $10MM. Financially, not much a difference between Beltran and Cuddyer.

I also wouldn't be opposed to the Sox getting into the hunt for Prado/Jurrjens and just throwing Lavarnway into the DH role. Prado doesn't have Beltran's bat, but could still be a solid player that can play multiple positions and give Pedroia Youk Lowrie a rest at those spots when needed and put them at DH for a day or two a week. I just don't really like the Beltran or bust thoughts, there are other options out there.

And please no more Jurrjens/Prado talk. Both are highly overrated. And the Sox do not have the developed prospects to acquire them.

[plucy]

With current commitments, projected arb, pre-arb and 40 man and benefits considerations, $40-50 M would put next year's payroll (and CBT payroll) over $200M. We'll know the new CBT restraints shortly with the new CBA, but even absent that, I can't see this FO getting into that payroll territory. I would project about half of that amount ($20-25M). With the need to buy some pitching, that doesn't leave much for the RF v. DH question.

Tyrone, I'm all over the Cody Ross idea. He can play all three OF positions, and while his power is declining, can still pop a few out. Probably costs Juan Rivera money ($3.5-4.5M).

[Tyrone Biggums]

Anything to support the 40-50MM? I'm assuming it's based off the expected difference between the luxury tax and current commitments. I think it's probably a fair assumption that they wouldn't go over, but yet wouldn't completely rule it out.





The difference between the expected AAV of Ortiz and Beltran is the $ of a poor reliever. The money will likely to be commited to a single player. To which point the case could be made that offense equal, it makes sense to commit to a player that can play the field to average, Beltran over Ortiz.

According to UZR, Cuddyer has never been an average defender, anywhere. Worst case scenario, the Sox could stick Lavarnway in RF, doesn't mean they should. The reality of the situation is also that Cuddyer is one of the big names in this year's market. He's expected to get around 3 years, at $10MM. Financially, not much a difference between Beltran and Cuddyer.



And please no more Jurrjens/Prado talk. Both are highly overrated. And the Sox do not have the developed prospects to acquire them.

The 40-50 million idea comes from the amount of money that came off of the books this offseason and the feeling that the Sox were maxed out of funds during the season. So while it has never been said they won't spend over 50 million, logic would dictate that this is accurate.

UZR does indicate that Cuddyer is below average...however, he was used as an example of how this money could be used. I just don't understand how people can bitch about spending 15 million a year on Lackey despite obvious medical red flags...15 million a year on Drew despite medical red flags but are more than willing to go all in on Beltran, despite obvious medical red flags. If Cuddyer costs 8 million over 2-3 years I would rather have him then spending 13-14 million on Beltran and hoping his knees hold up. However my number 1 option would be Cody Ross.

Why should we give up on Prado and or Jurrjens? If they can get a 3rd team involved it could work. Both might be "highly overrated" but both would be a massive upgrade over what the Sox are holding right now. We do not need another star player in the corner just because he has had a pretty good career, it's about how Beltran will project going forward. If a player has had knee and quad injuries during a 7 year deal when he was younger, what makes him a sure thing to hold up during the duration of this 3-4 year deal. (Please, forget about the 2 year deal, he has more than enough suitors that will push the price and years up) Last time I check, knees don't usually get better with age either.

Lets just say for the sake of argument, to make the Pro Beltran crowd happy he is more than willing to take 2 years perhaps with an option for a 3rd year. You still take Ortiz over him at that price, hes more proven in a big market and has less of an injury history, despite his body type. Not to mention he will probably cost less overall than Beltran.

Edited by Tyrone Biggums, 20 November 2011 - 01:46 PM.

[Tyrone Biggums]

With current commitments, projected arb, pre-arb and 40 man and benefits considerations, $40-50 M would put next year's payroll (and CBT payroll) over $200M. We'll know the new CBT restraints shortly with the new CBA, but even absent that, I can't see this FO getting into that payroll territory. I would project about half of that amount ($20-25M). With the need to buy some pitching, that doesn't leave much for the RF v. DH question.

Tyrone, I'm all over the Cody Ross idea. He can play all three OF positions, and while his power is declining, can still pop a few out. Probably costs Juan Rivera money ($3.5-4.5M).

This is exactly my point, signing Ross at 1 year for about 4 or 5 million gives the Sox more money to work with to fill other needs. It just doesn't make sense to sign Beltran as well if you believe that Kalish will be more than just a 4th outfielder. Not to mention, what happens when Ellsbury's contract is up? Ross could still be affordable if the Sox resign Papi to a 2 year deal.

Edited by Tyrone Biggums, 20 November 2011 - 01:54 PM.

[MikeM]

He wouldn't be a longer duration, neither would a guy like Cody Ross. Remember you have to assume that they have 40-50 million to spend to fix all of their issues. The Sox need to reconstruct and entire bullpen aside from Bard (since Aceves is heading to the rotation), sign multiple starting pitchers at least 2, just incase if the Aceves experiment doesn't stick. They need a right fielder, a DH...this team has a lot of needs. I just don't see the sense it would make to give Beltran a multiyear deal even if its slightly less than J.D. Drew money. Remember this isn't fantasy baseball, teams have budgets and sometimes the biggest names aren't the best fits. Cuddyer was an example but I used him because he has a solid bat and can play anywhere but SS. Worst case scenario, you end up sticking him at 3rd and Youk at DH and Kalish/Reddick in RF on some days.

You don't have to explain the concept of a budget to me, as i doubt you'll find another poster on this board who's spent as much time/energy as i have over the last 2 years speculating on the matter. At least in terms of whether or not the Sox were spending their resources at a rate outside of JH's comfort zone going forward.

That said, for me it all boils down to matter of how much potential risk and upside i see in any move where we are going to be committing a substantial sum of money. If you want to launch your counter debate there from a position of denial, in regards to the strong probability of Cuddyer landing himself a sizable FA contract this winter, that's fine. When you do finally come around though, feel free to come back and expand on why you believe Cuddyer's ability to fill in as a mediocre defensive replacement as a $10'ish/per guy is trumping Beltran's offensive upside at $15m'ish.

I like Beltran here because in the grander scheme of things, i want to win on the field, and DH/offense is seemingly the area we have the most control over in making that happen atm. That desire to win which trumps any need for every move we make to look overly-smart or cute on paper. The Sox already came into this winter with a need to get better, and with too many blatant steps backwards that's not going to happen imo. We've already taken a likely step backwards at the back end of our bullpen, and Madison is really the only option left on the reality table that's a equivalent type replacement on the surface. Given we didn't even extend an offer to Papelbon, i doubt it will be any different there. Then there's starting pitching. People keep pointing to that need to improve there, yet that likely plays to be both the riskiest and most expensive prospect of the bunch, and none of those guys are selling me as options where the potential upside outweighs the heavy contract risk.

Leaving me with a current projection that we won't see anything substantial being done to improve our pitching staff this winter. Which better case scenario, will likely play out to be slightly forward lateral from an overall perspective (with Clay being healthy this go round being the difference-maker factor we bank on). So with all that accounted for, yeah, I like Beltran and his offensive upside in our lineup atm. More then i like the alternative option of handing out a similar contract to Ortiz, and especially in comparison to the concept of tying up $10m/per on lesser upside guy like Cuddyer. That latter scenario arguably being this winter's poster child of bad contract scenarios at that, and the pretty much the standard example of when it's time to take a pass and instead look at alternative options/flyer on the cheap.

Now if the FO wants to go ahead and call out the rebuild, that obviously changes things. Until they do though, i'm going forward on the assumption that the money will be this winter for 1 substantial type contract in Beltran.

[Tyrone Biggums]

You don't have to explain the concept of a budget to me, as i doubt you'll find another poster on this board who's spent as much time/energy as i have over the last 2 years speculating on the matter. At least in terms of whether or not the Sox were spending their resources at a rate outside of JH's comfort zone going forward.

That said, for me it all boils down to matter of how much potential risk and upside i see in any move where we are going to be committing a substantial sum of money. If you want to launch your counter debate there from a position of denial, in regards to the strong probability of Cuddyer landing himself a sizable FA contract this winter, that's fine. When you do finally come around though, feel free to come back and expand on why you believe Cuddyer's ability to fill in as a mediocre defensive replacement as a $10'ish/per guy is trumping Beltran's offensive upside at $15m'ish.

I like Beltran here because in the grander scheme of things, i want to win on the field, and DH/offense is seemingly the area we have the most control over in making that happen atm. That desire to win which trumps any need for every move we make to look overly-smart or cute on paper. The Sox already came into this winter with a need to get better, and with too many blatant steps backwards that's not going to happen imo. We've already taken a likely step backwards at the back end of our bullpen, and Madison is really the only option left on the reality table that's a equivalent type replacement on the surface. Given we didn't even extend an offer to Papelbon, i doubt it will be any different there. Then there's starting pitching. People keep pointing to that need to improve there, yet that likely plays to be both the riskiest and most expensive prospect of the bunch, and none of those guys are selling me as options where the potential upside outweighs the heavy contract risk.

Leaving me with a current projection that we won't see anything substantial being done to improve our pitching staff this winter. Which better case scenario, will likely play out to be slightly forward lateral from an overall perspective (with Clay being healthy this go round being the difference-maker factor we bank on). So with all that accounted for, yeah, I like Beltran and his offensive upside in our lineup atm. More then i like the alternative option of handing out a similar contract to Ortiz, and especially in comparison to the concept of tying up $10m/per on lesser upside guy like Cuddyer. That latter scenario arguably being this winter's poster child of bad contract scenarios at that, and the pretty much the standard example of when it's time to take a pass and instead look at alternative options/flyer on the cheap.

Now if the FO wants to go ahead and call out the rebuild, that obviously changes things. Until they do though, i'm going forward on the assumption that the money will be this winter for 1 substantial type contract in Beltran.

First and foremost I did use Cuddyer as an example, I've also used Cody Ross which you have conveniently chosen to ignore and yet continued to harp on Cuddyer. While the pitching market isn't that great and the FA market in general isn't either, you cannot discount Beltran's injury history when giving him a sizable contract. When Beltran first came up with the Royals he was a 5 tool, speed and power threat. Years later, after x amount of injuries much of that speed is gone, the power is still somewhat there although 22 homers from a corner outfielder doesn't exactly inspire the word "pop" to me. Back to Cuddyer, its all about years with whomever is signed, in terms of figuring out who would bring the best value. If Beltran is signed for two or three years how does that help the 2012 Boston Red Sox win anymore than David Ortiz? Especially since Ortiz will be cheaper and has less of an injury history. Now before you say, "well he can play OF and DH" Beltran DOES NOT WANT TO BE A DH. This is why the Mets trade options were limited, he had the right and I believe he did veto a trade to the Indians for this very reason. He wants assurances that he will be a fulltime outfielder.

We make jokes about Ortiz and his weight and whatnot, however, has Big Papi ever suffered from any real physical issues? Granted the DH position makes this a lot less likely that it would occur but you can't discount a players medical records when forking over any type of money. Willingham is another option, hes not a big average guy but he could easily post high power numbers in Fenway. My main point stays the same...why are we looking at this offseason as Beltran or bust just because hes the number one outfielder on the market? Didn't the Boston Red Sox just give a lot of money to the #1 outfielder on the market last year?

So what would happen for the future? Say they sign Beltran 3 years 45 million...when Ellsbury becomes a free agent you have 35 million locked between your two outfield spots. If Ellsbury is brought back you would have a 50 + million dollar outfield, it doesn't make fiscal sense to have 3 players in the outfield making a combined 50 + million when you're not the Yankees. The way to build this team is through player development, and through smart free agent signings. Beltran is a signing that any arm chair GM could make, but if you can get Willingham/Ross/Cuddyer etc...for half the price and then use the other money to fill some holes on this team then its a win win situation.

What about Kalish/Reddick? Reddick I feel is no better than a 4th outfielder at best, however, Kalish I still feel could post adequate numbers in RF, given the chance. Beltran is a great name player, but I hope that Ben and Larry aren't stupid enough to just throw a pile of money at this guy without examining every possible option on the open market.

As for our bullpen, look at what Tampa did last year. There wasn't anyone named Papelbon or Madson or Bell closing games or setting up. The Sox might end up getting someone like Broxton Lidge Cordero or some minor league free agents or even a guy like Harden they might get cute with and see if they can make him into a closer. Either way just because there isn't an impact name on the market that is attractive doesn't mean this team will not allocate their resources to sign some arms, that still costs money.

Edited by Tyrone Biggums, 20 November 2011 - 04:21 PM.

[MikeM]

First and foremost I did use Cuddyer as an example, I've also used Cody Ross which you have conveniently chosen to ignore and yet continued to harp on Cuddyer. While the pitching market isn't that great and the FA market in general isn't either, you cannot discount Beltran's injury history when giving him a sizable contract. When Beltran first came up with the Royals he was a 5 tool, speed and power threat. Years later, after x amount of injuries much of that speed is gone, the power is still somewhat there although 22 homers from a corner outfielder doesn't exactly inspire the word "pop" to me. Back to Cuddyer, its all about years with whomever is signed, in terms of figuring out who would bring the best value. If Beltran is signed for two or three years how does that help the 2012 Boston Red Sox win anymore than David Ortiz? Especially since Ortiz will be cheaper and has less of an injury history. Now before you say, "well he can play OF and DH" Beltran DOES NOT WANT TO BE A DH. This is why the Mets trade options were limited, he had the right and I believe he did veto a trade to the Indians for this very reason. He wants assurances that he will be a fulltime outfielder.

Beltran not wanting to DH in his finale showcase leading up to free agency, and not willing to DH now if that's where the money trail is leading him, is two entirely different matters imo. Maybe i'm wrong there, but being a former Boras client and all, i initially doubt it.

I also was focusing on Cuddyer because you were attempting to present him as some cheap alternative he's not going to be. As far as Cody Ross is concerned, it's not that i'm ignoring him, it's just that (and like Cuddyer) i don't view him as currently viable alternative to Beltran given the surrounding circumstances. In a hypothetical scenario where we had resigned Papelbon, or where i was expecting a significant starting pitching upgrade to walk through that door this winter, my priorities there might play out to be different. But that's not what i'm projecting to be the case atm. Here, let me simplify this down to make it as clear as possible.

I don't believe the Red Sox will be in on any of the major free agent starter/relievers this winter, nor do i want them to be at this point ( well maybe Madison, in the event he ends up being up for grabs at a comfortable amount less then Papelbon). I do however believe that given what i just stated, and on top of factoring that in, we simply can't afford the additional risk of taking that step backwards offensively the decision *not* to sign one of Beltran/Ortiz is currently representing. In fact, nor do i expect us to. Having the Trio/Ben follow that epic Sept collapse up by letting 2 major stars here go, and then not handing out a single significant contract in free agency? I just can't see that happening, with default logic pointing to the resigning of Ortiz, if for no other reason then the appearance factor demands it (and yeah, at this point i don't buy that kind of flawed thought process isn't going to influence the decision on some level there). From there, it's rather simple. If it's an Ortiz or Beltran pick em, my money is one 2-3 years of Beltran > 2-3 years of Ortiz going forward.

So what would happen for the future? Say they sign Beltran 3 years 45 million...when Ellsbury becomes a free agent you have 35 million locked between your two outfield spots. If Ellsbury is brought back you would have a 50 + million dollar outfield, it doesn't make fiscal sense to have 3 players in the outfield making a combined 50 + million when you're not the Yankees. The way to build this team is through player development, and through smart free agent signings. Beltran is a signing that any arm chair GM could make, but if you can get Willingham/Ross/Cuddyer etc...for half the price and then use the other money to fill some holes on this team then its a win win situation.

Whether it's Ortiz or Beltran, either way i see that money being spent at DH, making the potential relationship to an Ellsbury signing all but irrelevant. But for the record, you are going on there and preaching to the choir. I spent all last winter begging and pleading that we dismiss any thought of signing Carl Crawford, in large part no less because i believed we already had our own version of Crawford in-house. Trust me, that we went on to sign him and potentially spent Ellsbury's extension money to bring in a guy we arguably had as much need for then as we do a $10m/per Cuddyer now irks me to no freaking end.

As for our bullpen, look at what Tampa did last year. There wasn't anyone named Papelbon or Madson or Bell closing games or setting up. The Sox might end up getting someone like Broxton Lidge Cordero or some minor league free agents or even a guy like Harden they might get cute with and see if they can make him into a closer. Either way just because there isn't an impact name on the market that is attractive doesn't mean this team will not allocate their resources to sign some arms, that still costs money.

Heh, when our guys show any sign of being even remotely capable of pulling off what they are doing in Tampa, i'll start feeling a lot better about our chances in building a quality/Papelbon-less bullpen. Maybe it happen this winter, but i'm certainly not running to Vegas to place that bet.

[Tyrone Biggums]

Beltran not wanting to DH in his finale showcase leading up to free agency, and not willing to DH now if that's where the money trail is leading him, is two entirely different matters imo. Maybe i'm wrong there, but being a former Boras client and all, i initially doubt it.

I also was focusing on Cuddyer because you were attempting to present him as some cheap alternative he's not going to be. As far as Cody Ross is concerned, it's not that i'm ignoring him, it's just that (and like Cuddyer) i don't view him as currently viable alternative to Beltran given the surrounding circumstances. In a hypothetical scenario where we had resigned Papelbon, or where i was expecting a significant starting pitching upgrade to walk through that door this winter, my priorities there might play out to be different. But that's not what i'm projecting to be the case atm. Here, let me simplify this down to make it as clear as possible.

I don't believe the Red Sox will be in on any of the major free agent starter/relievers this winter, nor do i want them to be at this point ( well maybe Madison, in the event he ends up being up for grabs at a comfortable amount less then Papelbon). I do however believe that given what i just stated, and on top of factoring that in, we simply can't afford the additional risk of taking that step backwards offensively the decision *not* to sign one of Beltran/Ortiz is currently representing. In fact, nor do i expect us to. Having the Trio/Ben follow that epic Sept collapse up by letting 2 major stars here go, and then not handing out a single significant contract in free agency? I just can't see that happening, with default logic pointing to the resigning of Ortiz, if for no other reason then the appearance factor demands it (and yeah, at this point i don't buy that kind of flawed thought process isn't going to influence the decision on some level there). From there, it's rather simple. If it's an Ortiz or Beltran pick em, my money is one 2-3 years of Beltran > 2-3 years of Ortiz going forward.



Whether it's Ortiz or Beltran, either way i see that money being spent at DH, making the potential relationship to an Ellsbury signing all but irrelevant. But for the record, you are going on there and preaching to the choir. I spent all last winter begging and pleading that we dismiss any thought of signing Carl Crawford, in large part no less because i believed we already had our own version of Crawford in-house. Trust me, that we went on to sign him and potentially spent Ellsbury's extension money to bring in a guy we arguably had as much need for then as we do a $10m/per Cuddyer now irks me to no freaking end.



Heh, when our guys show any sign of being even remotely capable of pulling off what they are doing in Tampa, i'll start feeling a lot better about our chances in building a quality/Papelbon-less bullpen. Maybe it happen this winter, but i'm certainly not running to Vegas to place that bet.

1) Cuddyer IS a cheaper alternative, he will not cost 15 million a year, hell with the Phillies trading for Wiggington, the market is evaporating for him, so I'm confident that he won't get 10 million. Cuddyer will get a 2-3 year deal probably at 8 million per. At that price, yeah I would take him over Beltran provided the team doesn't just pocket the money and uses it to strengthen the pitching staff. Willingham, is also a cheaper alternative as is Ross as is anyone else on the market that plays RF or DH. Will he have better numbers than Beltran? Probably not. The reason I am advocating other people over Beltran is both financial and medical.

2)The Sox have a guy in their system, Lavarnway who isn't really a defensive whiz and has a future as a major league DH. I do not believe that DH should be a position that a team throws a ton of money at, unless it makes sense. Bringing Ortiz back over Carlos Beltran makes a lot of sense. You can't deny that Beltran brings a major medical risk with him. Ortiz's only red flag is that hes fat. However, if the Sox feel that Lavarnway is the future at DH then take the picks for Ortiz and let Beltran be someone else's risk

3)Crawford's long term contract was somewhat understandable, very good track record, in his prime, really didn't have any abnormal seasons which would indicate that hes a contract year player. Just because the Sox went down this road before doesn't make it right that they should not only go down this road again, but with an older, slower, riskier player.

4)My point is that Beltran is the best RF on the market for the 2012 Red Sox, but perhaps not in 2013 or 2014. However, given all of the holes this team has to fill it isn't the smart play for the Sox. Just because the Red Sox have not had success in building a bullpen doesn't mean they should just disregard signing pitchers in free agency. Here let me make this as clear as possible with the laundry list of needs this team has

-Designated Hitter
-Right Fielder
-Starting Pitching (2 pitchers then probably another few off of waivers or Minor League FA)
-Middle Relief (They need at least 3 to stick)
-Closer (Bard probably isn't the answer right now)
-Right handed bat off the bench
-4th outfielder (although this will probably be covered with Darnell McDonald/Josh Reddick/Kalish)

Since the Sox have about 40-50 million to spend, lets say they use 15 on Beltran. This leaves 25-35 million to spend on all of those needs. Unless of course you would be overjoyed to see Kyle Weiland coming out of the pen in the 7th inning next year, or Wakefield as the Sox 5th starter. If the Sox were the Yankees then they would have paid Papelbon and he would still be here. If they were going to pass up paying an elite closer 12-13 million and go 4 years for him, what makes you think they're going long term with anyone at this point?

The problem with bullpens is that relief pitchers are spotty at best, they can be elite for 5 years in a row then just completely fall off a cliff. I think this is going to be done like the 2003 season in which the Sox signed Timlin and friends and figured out the closer situation mid season. But you have to sign some guys that have a semi good track record. Now that no compensation would be needed, a guy like Octavio Dotel comes to mind as someone who could be a solid pickup for relatively cheap money. The risk with this team is almost never just the price, its the years involved as well.

I would love to just throw all of this out and sign Beltran and just ignore all of the risks associated with forking over 15 million a year for a player in his mid 30s with medical issues, however that wouldn't be sensible.

Edited by Tyrone Biggums, 20 November 2011 - 08:06 PM.

[MikeM]

1. If/when Cuddyer signs somewhere for 2/$8m per, feel free to throw an "i told you" so my way. That said, and even the event i am wrong there, i still wouldn't want him over Beltran. Nor any of those other guys, for the same reason i keep pointing out to you. I don't want to take the significant downgrade risk here and go with the cheaper option. This is the area that i currently see as being in our best interests to not try and get cute with, and i'm willing to spend that additional $5-8m over a Cuddyer for the realistic offensive upside Beltran presents that Cuddyer does not. If that translates into having less money to spend elsewhere atm, then so be it.

You keep harping on this medical concern with Beltran, but in the end, i see the potential rewards being worth the potential risk atm. It's not like Ortiz doesn't doesn't come without his additional warts either, beyond simply being fat, as i'm hardly alone in questioning whether we can/should expect last season's surge back to his previous 2007 level of production to continue going forward. Again, i'm projecting the next 2-3 years of offense we see out of Beltran to trump what we see out of Ortiz. If you disagree there, or don't see the same potential value in his offense over what we can reasonably expect out of a cheaper alternative, that's fine.

2. Are we speculating there as a team looking to rebuild, or as a team with championship aspirations next season? Because depending on which is the case, i have 2 entirely different opinions on whether or not a guy like Lavarnway should currently be entered into the potential equation there.

3. Heh, might be best to agree to disagree there, for the sake of not getting too far off topic here. As i could probably go on forever here debating the various reasons that decision was a terrible one from the start. That said, the attempted comparison there is a rather weak one, as i'm hardly sitting here advocating that we hand Beltran a 5-6 year contract for $25m+/per, which would probably be the level you'd have to go to in matching that Crawford contract on the "wtf were they possibly thinking?" scale imo. I already stated my interest in Beltran there has a limit, and one i personally don't find to be too unreasonable. If/when it projects to go beyond that type of commitment, i'll probably even be one of the first in line suggesting we take a pass.

4. Like i said man, i don't see the Sox taking an absolute "spread the money around" approach there, at least to the extent that sees us *not* hand out at least that 1 significant contract. With my current bet that it's going to play out to be a pick'em between Ortiz and Beltran. If that only leaves $35m to work with in their shopping for those other areas of need, then that's what they are going to do. And no, i don't *want* too see Wakefield leaving ST as the Sox's 5th starter, but i believe that's currently the best bet on what we are going to see happen. If one accepts that, $35m will probably cover the rest imo, at least in terms of one can reasonably expect to be realistic options for those type of openings. I mean other then they backend bullpen guy we team up with Bard, i don't see some desire being present to spend much on those other areas to begin with, with or without a Beltran signing.

Edited by MikeM, 20 November 2011 - 09:36 PM.

[Tyrone Biggums]

1. If/when Cuddyer signs somewhere for 2/$8m per, feel free to throw an "i told you" so my way. That said, and even the event i am wrong there, i still wouldn't want him over Beltran. Nor any of those other guys, for the same reason i keep pointing out to you. I don't want to take the significant downgrade risk here and go with the cheaper option. This is the area that i currently see as being in our best interests to not try and get cute with, and i'm willing to spend that additional $5-8m over a Cuddyer for the realistic offensive upside Beltran presents that Cuddyer does not. If that translates into having less money to spend elsewhere atm, then so be it.

You keep harping on this medical concern with Beltran, but in the end, i see the potential rewards being worth the potential risk atm. It's not like Ortiz doesn't doesn't come without his additional warts either, beyond simply being fat, as i'm hardly alone in questioning whether we can/should expect last season's surge back to his previous 2007 level of production to continue going forward. Again, i'm projecting the next 2-3 years of offense we see out of Beltran to trump what we see out of Ortiz. If you disagree there, or don't see the same potential value in his offense over what we can reasonably expect out of a cheaper alternative, that's fine.

2. Are we speculating there as a team looking to rebuild, or as a team with championship aspirations next season? Because depending on which is the case, i have 2 entirely different opinions on whether or not a guy like Lavarnway should currently be entered into the potential equation there.

3. Heh, might be best to agree to disagree there, for the sake of not getting too far off topic here. As i could probably go on forever here debating the various reasons that decision was a terrible one from the start. That said, the attempted comparison there is a rather weak one, as i'm hardly sitting here advocating that we hand Beltran a 5-6 year contract for $25m+/per, which would probably be the level you'd have to go to in matching that Crawford contract on the "wtf were they possibly thinking?" scale imo. I already stated my interest in Beltran there has a limit, and one i personally don't find to be too unreasonable. If/when it projects to go beyond that type of commitment, i'll probably even be one of the first in line suggesting we take a pass.

4. Like i said man, i don't see the Sox taking an absolute "spread the money around" approach there, at least to the extent that sees us *not* hand out at least that 1 significant contract. With my current bet that it's going to play out to be a pick'em between Ortiz and Beltran. If that only leaves $35m to work with in their shopping for those other areas of need, then that's what they are going to do. And no, i don't *want* too see Wakefield leaving ST as the Sox's 5th starter, but i believe that's currently the best bet on what we are going to see happen. If one accepts that, $35m will probably cover the rest imo, at least in terms of one can reasonably expect to be realistic options for those type of openings. I mean other then they backend bullpen guy we team up with Bard, i don't see some desire being present to spend much on those other areas to begin with, with or without a Beltran signing.

1)I get it, you want to go with the home run option in which the Boston Red Sox win the 2011-2012 offseason. Beltran on paper is the homerun, however with him you're looking at Wakefield or someone of his ilk becoming your 5th starter. I'm not an advocate of overpaying C.J. Wilson or anything but even for a guy like Harden/Bedard/Garland etc...one of those guys you're looking at a 1 year 5 million dollar deal.

2)Take money out of the Crawford contract, and just put into theory the fact that this organization until semi recently hardly ever went multiple years with players over 30. Going three years for Beltran who has a history of being banged up is not a good way to spend money and is just as reckless as going 7 with any player due to red flags and injuries etc...

3)How do we know that Lavarnway cannot give the Sox as good of a chance as any of the options out in FA to win in 2012? Just because a player is unproven doesn't mean that he should be written off as a potential piece of the puzzle. I'm getting the feeling that you seem to believe that a major league team can be run like any successful fantasy baseball team, no budgets just stars everywhere. If I am wrong then I apologize, however, I believe your logic on going 15 mil per for Beltran is short sighted. If we give him 3 years and he ends up helping the Sox get to the post season and the Sox get knocked out in the first round, then spends the next 2 seasons in and out of the lineup, was it worth it? What about Carlos Pena as another option as DH?

4)If the Sox want to compete next year they have two choices, match the Yankees payroll (due to the bad contracts on the roster currently) or spread the money around and not sign any superstars with the exception of maybe Ortiz. If you go with option one you give Beltran everything he wants and then some, hell sign Ortiz back too and then go out and sign the best FA Closer, you go all in on a risky free agent class. The second option is that you sign one guy like a Beltran or Ortiz and then use the rest of the money to fill your spots. If the Sox get Ortiz for lets say 2 years 24 million, I would absolutely say that he would be more valuable to the Sox than Beltran at 3/45. Ortiz can't leverage a 3 year deal because no one will be stupid enough to go to that length, the most I can see is a club option for a third year. Payroll wouldn't be tied up for that extra year and you would get similar offensive production going forward for the next two. You don't need Ortiz to go back to his 2007 numbers, as long as it is close. You could say the same thing about Beltran, his best season was right before he signed that monster deal with the Mets. This year after being in and out of the medical room, he had a great season again. A lot of his value was tied to him having a lot of power and speed, the speed part of his game is essentially gone.

5)The logical thing is to sign Ortiz for 2 years or someone else that would only take 2 years. A few of the options could be Ross, Cuddyer, Willingham, or Pena, either way the point is to maintain some type of financial flexibility going forward. But again we will agree to disagree, you want Beltran unless if the cost is insane like Crawford, even if it means going into spring training with 75 year old Tim Wakefield as the 5th starter. I don't want Beltran because aging outfielders with knee issues never age well and the commitment is too great of a gamble with the contracts currently on the roster.

[MikeM]

1)I get it, you want to go with the home run option in which the Boston Red Sox win the 2011-2012 offseason. Beltran on paper is the homerun, however with him you're looking at Wakefield or someone of his ilk becoming your 5th starter. I'm not an advocate of overpaying C.J. Wilson or anything but even for a guy like Harden/Bedard/Garland etc...one of those guys you're looking at a 1 year 5 million dollar deal.

2)Take money out of the Crawford contract, and just put into theory the fact that this organization until semi recently hardly ever went multiple years with players over 30. Going three years for Beltran who has a history of being banged up is not a good way to spend money and is just as reckless as going 7 with any player due to red flags and injuries etc...

3)How do we know that Lavarnway cannot give the Sox as good of a chance as any of the options out in FA to win in 2012? Just because a player is unproven doesn't mean that he should be written off as a potential piece of the puzzle. I'm getting the feeling that you seem to believe that a major league team can be run like any successful fantasy baseball team, no budgets just stars everywhere. If I am wrong then I apologize, however, I believe your logic on going 15 mil per for Beltran is short sighted. If we give him 3 years and he ends up helping the Sox get to the post season and the Sox get knocked out in the first round, then spends the next 2 seasons in and out of the lineup, was it worth it? What about Carlos Pena as another option as DH?

4)If the Sox want to compete next year they have two choices, match the Yankees payroll (due to the bad contracts on the roster currently) or spread the money around and not sign any superstars with the exception of maybe Ortiz. If you go with option one you give Beltran everything he wants and then some, hell sign Ortiz back too and then go out and sign the best FA Closer, you go all in on a risky free agent class. The second option is that you sign one guy like a Beltran or Ortiz and then use the rest of the money to fill your spots. If the Sox get Ortiz for lets say 2 years 24 million, I would absolutely say that he would be more valuable to the Sox than Beltran at 3/45. Ortiz can't leverage a 3 year deal because no one will be stupid enough to go to that length, the most I can see is a club option for a third year. Payroll wouldn't be tied up for that extra year and you would get similar offensive production going forward for the next two. You don't need Ortiz to go back to his 2007 numbers, as long as it is close. You could say the same thing about Beltran, his best season was right before he signed that monster deal with the Mets. This year after being in and out of the medical room, he had a great season again. A lot of his value was tied to him having a lot of power and speed, the speed part of his game is essentially gone.

5)The logical thing is to sign Ortiz for 2 years or someone else that would only take 2 years. A few of the options could be Ross, Cuddyer, Willingham, or Pena, either way the point is to maintain some type of financial flexibility going forward. But again we will agree to disagree, you want Beltran unless if the cost is insane like Crawford, even if it means going into spring training with 75 year old Tim Wakefield as the 5th starter. I don't want Beltran because aging outfielders with knee issues never age well and the commitment is too great of a gamble with the contracts currently on the roster.

1. Exactly, as in the event we are not going to take the legitimate rebuild route, i want and feel the surrounding circumstances all but demand the home run option there. Beltran or bust, go big or go home, call it whatever you want. Although whether it be Beltran/Ortiz/Cuddyer/Joe Blow, we're still likely going into the season with that 75 year old dinosaur as our 5th starter btw and imo.

2. Had Crawford been available at a 3 year deal, i would still feel more comfortable now in the decision to hand Beltran $15m/per to be our DH for 2 years then i would of felt then in handing CC $20/per over 3 to be our LF'er. I say 2 years on Beltran there btw, because as i believe i already stated in this thread, in the event Beltran requires 3 year deal i'd have to have to see the structure of such before making any final evaluations. Ideally, i'd like that 3rd year to be a vesting option/team friendly. If that does not play out to be the case, then my potential interest starts to go in the opposite direction. Until we start seeing some reliable #'s getting thrown around there, it's hard to fully commit to much beyond my belief that at face value, i like Beltran over Ortiz.

3. I don't see my preference that we sign Beltran over Ortiz being any more "fantasy team'ish" then your support on the possibility that the exact opposite plays itself out, or how that translates into me not understanding the concept of a budget. I also never claimed it was impossible for Lavarnway to potentially give us the same as we may end up getting out of the DH. I'm just no where near as comfortable as you seemingly are with the risk factor involved, on top of the one we just took in letting Papelbon walk no less, which imo has more then a decent shot to play out to be our potential chance at making the playoffs. If signing Beltran's bat plays out to be the difference maker there, and we go on to win the World Series, was a 2-3 year contract to Beltran worth it? Hell freaking yeah imo.

Carlos Pena as the LH half of a platoon has potential imo, but you are still entering into a territory where i'd need to see how the total sum adds up. Pena made what, $10m in 2011? Who is the RH portion of said platoon, and what's the total cost/commitment in comparison to signing Beltran?

4. If we have really reached the point where an extra year for Beltran over Ortiz is going to potentially make that much of a make or break difference going forward, it's probably time to blow this shit up. I tend to generally be more pessimistic then the next guy, but even i'm not there yet. The second option works for me, and overall health permitting (no losing multiple key cogs in our machine), positions us in a pretty good spot. Not as ideally good as we are used to lately, but i don't see us going away as a potential contender or anything.

[Tyrone Biggums]

1. Exactly, as in the event we are not going to take the legitimate rebuild route, i want and feel the surrounding circumstances all but demand the home run option there. Beltran or bust, go big or go home, call it whatever you want. Although whether it be Beltran/Ortiz/Cuddyer/Joe Blow, we're still likely going into the season with that 75 year old dinosaur as our 5th starter btw and imo.

2. Had Crawford been available at a 3 year deal, i would still feel more comfortable now in the decision to hand Beltran $15m/per to be our DH for 2 years then i would of felt then in handing CC $20/per over 3 to be our LF'er. I say 2 years on Beltran there btw, because as i believe i already stated in this thread, in the event Beltran requires 3 year deal i'd have to have to see the structure of such before making any final evaluations. Ideally, i'd like that 3rd year to be a vesting option/team friendly. If that does not play out to be the case, then my potential interest starts to go in the opposite direction. Until we start seeing some reliable #'s getting thrown around there, it's hard to fully commit to much beyond my belief that at face value, i like Beltran over Ortiz.

3. I don't see my preference that we sign Beltran over Ortiz being any more "fantasy team'ish" then your support on the possibility that the exact opposite plays itself out, or how that translates into me not understanding the concept of a budget. I also never claimed it was impossible for Lavarnway to potentially give us the same as we may end up getting out of the DH. I'm just no where near as comfortable as you seemingly are with the risk factor involved, on top of the one we just took in letting Papelbon walk no less, which imo has more then a decent shot to play out to be our potential chance at making the playoffs. If signing Beltran's bat plays out to be the difference maker there, and we go on to win the World Series, was a 2-3 year contract to Beltran worth it? Hell freaking yeah imo.

Carlos Pena as the LH half of a platoon has potential imo, but you are still entering into a territory where i'd need to see how the total sum adds up. Pena made what, $10m in 2011? Who is the RH portion of said platoon, and what's the total cost/commitment in comparison to signing Beltran?

4. If we have really reached the point where an extra year for Beltran over Ortiz is going to potentially make that much of a make or break difference going forward, it's probably time to blow this shit up. I tend to generally be more pessimistic then the next guy, but even i'm not there yet. The second option works for me, and overall health permitting (no losing multiple key cogs in our machine), positions us in a pretty good spot. Not as ideally good as we are used to lately, but i don't see us going away as a potential contender or anything.

But the thing that isn't computing is that the Sox can't become the Yankees because there is only one team in all of pro sports that has zero budget. Whenever you sign a player long term, you have to look at how it will impact your club going forward. So that being said I don't see how keeping Ortiz makes the Red Sox any less contenders than they would be sporting Carlos Beltran in the 4 hole. Ortiz would take less years, and is just an overall better solution because of that. The one thing in this industry is that you cannot make moves solely based on public reaction, if that was the case 3/4ths of this roster would have been DFA'ed, Traded, or not Resigned. Just because I do not want Beltran does not mean that I feel the Sox should blow it up. I just think you aren't seeing the big picture with the Beltran or bust mantra blinding you, if the Sox do not sign him then they will absolutely feel more comfortable spending money on a SP out there. Wakefield, I hope is done with the Sox and bypassing another long term commitment with another player, the team can use this off season to potentially set them up for 2013 and beyond.

Funny that you should bring the one year or bust thing up, J.D. Drew was the perfect example of this. The Sox won in 2007, J.D. Drew gave us one huge homerun for 75 million dollars. Drew was still semi productive in his time here, however, by this same logic if Beltran is apart of the 2012 World Champion Boston Red Sox, wouldn't this also validate the Crawford contract if he has a good post season? The risk the team would be taking on is potentially adding more dead money to the budget for 2013 and 2014.

Carlos Pena would not be a platoon member, he is coming off of an okay but not fantastic year. Pena is a masher however and could be had on a 1 year deal. But let me ask you this, say it gets to the point with Beltran if you have to add on a 4th year or a 4th year with an option for a 5th, do you make that deal? Knowing that it could cause serious issues with the budget 2 years from now? Obviously in the extreme case Beltran takes a 2 year deal, it makes the commitment easier to swallow, but due to the financial commitment it would still make more sense to bring Ortiz back. However if they give Beltran two years I wouldn't be that angry, its just when you get into a situation with a player like that and long term deals get thrown around that's when it starts to get into a dangerous territory.

Edited by Tyrone Biggums, 21 November 2011 - 06:45 AM.

[MikeM]

But the thing that isn't computing is that the Sox can't become the Yankees because there is only one team in all of pro sports that has zero budget. Whenever you sign a player long term, you have to look at how it will impact your club going forward. So that being said I don't see how keeping Ortiz makes the Red Sox any less contenders than they would be sporting Carlos Beltran in the 4 hole. Ortiz would take less years, and is just an overall better solution because of that. The one thing in this industry is that you cannot make moves solely based on public reaction, if that was the case 3/4ths of this roster would have been DFA'ed, Traded, or not Resigned. Just because I do not want Beltran does not mean that I feel the Sox should blow it up. I just think you aren't seeing the big picture with the Beltran or bust mantra blinding you, if the Sox do not sign him then they will absolutely feel more comfortable spending money on a SP out there. Wakefield, I hope is done with the Sox and bypassing another long term commitment with another player, the team can use this off season to potentially set them up for 2013 and beyond.

Funny that you should bring the one year or bust thing up, J.D. Drew was the perfect example of this. The Sox won in 2007, J.D. Drew gave us one huge homerun for 75 million dollars. Drew was still semi productive in his time here, however, by this same logic if Beltran is apart of the 2012 World Champion Boston Red Sox, wouldn't this also validate the Crawford contract if he has a good post season? The risk the team would be taking on is potentially adding more dead money to the budget for 2013 and 2014.

Carlos Pena would not be a platoon member, he is coming off of an okay but not fantastic year. Pena is a masher however and could be had on a 1 year deal. But let me ask you this, say it gets to the point with Beltran if you have to add on a 4th year or a 4th year with an option for a 5th, do you make that deal? Knowing that it could cause serious issues with the budget 2 years from now? Obviously in the extreme case Beltran takes a 2 year deal, it makes the commitment easier to swallow, but due to the financial commitment it would still make more sense to bring Ortiz back. However if they give Beltran two years I wouldn't be that angry, its just when you get into a situation with a player like that and long term deals get thrown around that's when it starts to get into a dangerous territory.

In a thread here last off-season, where i was speculating a concern that we were trending in the wrong direction financially btw, i put JD Drew down among Theo's best free agent signings. Essentially based on the criteria that there was strong need for it at the time of his signing, we didn't blatantly outbid ourselves at the time to secure him, and lastly (and most importantly) it adequately played out to more or less fill that specific hole in the roster that was/is the ultimate goal behind any such free agent signing. The value in that latter btw which can't be overstated enough imo, and which directly plays into my belief here that sometimes the better bet is to pay a little "extra" for the better player. As in the event we do fork over a 2 year contract to Beltran, i'm sitting here pretty confident that barring the worst case scenario of injury, this team is going to be content those next 2 years with Beltran in the DH role. A guy like Cuddyer....not so much. Argument aside that he's even an adequate replacement to begin with, the slightest drop in production there and we are likely more or less left back at square 1 in our search. Left eating that contract in it's entirety, which by now is getting to be a little too familiar a scenario here for my tastes.

With our Beltran vs Ortiz debate, i think this is really boiling down to a matter of our current perceptions on Ortiz. I look at David Ortiz right now, and i'm just not seeing the same guy going forward that we saw in 2011. What i do see is more of a mixture of what we saw in 2009-10, with a 2 year deal likely playing out to trend in the same manner yet opposite direction. I guess i'm just that much more convinced Beltran can remain the same hitter we saw in 2011 over these next 2 years, and that's the difference i see that you don't, and why Beltran isn't the arguable "waste of of excess money" to me that he seems to be to you.

Similar to Crawford, i've actually be fortunate enough to have spent quite a substantial amount of firsthand time watching Pena play on a daily basis (i live down in Florida). Unlike the "when great statistical evaluation tools go bad" Crawford, i always liked what i saw out of Pena, assuming one was willing to view him as a "warts and all" type player and not some guy you break the bank on. Those splits against lefties these last 2 years are alarmingly bad though imo (didn't get much of a firsthand look last season, but it's looking pretty extreme on paper), leaving me to doubt him as a reasonable substitute for Beltran if he was coming at only a 1/3 per/year discount.

The 3 year point is where i'd potentially be "swallowing down" on Beltran. I wouldn't even consider 4, much less 5.

[rglenmt]

Beltran, if healthy enough to play RF, as a switchitter is the likely short term fit (no more than a 2 year Contract. With Youk, Lowrie, Salty and Lavarnway being able to share the DH job, occasionally with Youk and Adrian Gonzalez switching off at 1B to give Adrian Gonzalez a brief rest, it seems a perfect combination. If Beltran will not sign a 2 year Contract, I still would not sign Big Papi, instead further investing that additional money in pitching, maybe Loenis Cespedes, knowing that Cespedes and Linares should both get a chance to be the Rightanded bat playing RF.

[MikeM]

Imo Ortiz's decision to accept arby should come with a public apology, and then a personal promise that we won't spend another year wishing he'd STFU about his supposed need for long term security.

[sancap14]

It's an unmitigated disaster offering him arbitration. He's sitting in the DR pissed at the whole situation that nobody else wants him (hence the delay). He's going to have an attitude this year and thats the last thing this team needs. The brass should have either gave him a respectable deal or just parted ways. Typical Boston BS. This won't end well.

[Cellar-Door]

It's an unmitigated disaster offering him arbitration. He's sitting in the DR pissed at the whole situation that nobody else wants him (hence the delay). He's going to have an attitude this year and thats the last thing this team needs. The brass should have either gave him a respectable deal or just parted ways. Typical Boston BS. This won't end well.

What? They offered him a 2 year deal that he has refused, why in the world would they let him leave without getting a draft pick for him? The idea of giving away a valuable asset so as not to hurt his feelings is absurd.

[MikeM]

What? They offered him a 2 year deal that he has refused, why in the world would they let him leave without getting a draft pick for him? The idea of giving away a valuable asset so as not to hurt his feelings is absurd.

Idk man, i think it's debatable whether or not the Sox offer arby here knowing for fact that he'd accept.

Not that there's really any way to know now, but yeah. You gamble and lose there sometimes.

[MikeM]

*double*

Edited by MikeM, 07 December 2011 - 11:12 PM.

[MikeM]

So yeah, still yet to see/hear any speculation suggesting Beltran is going to be overly-expensive.

I might end up shedding a tear in the event he signs for 2 years at less per/year money then we'll pay out to Ortiz in arby.

[MikeM]

2 years/$26m on Beltran Mr. Biggums. All things considered, that's looking pretty solid imo.

Not really seeing a 1 or 2 year situation playing out with Ortiz where i wouldn't be favoring Beltran there. Although since i wasn't out there also suggesting we not offer him arby at the time, i guess that's a moot point.

[Tyrone Biggums]

2 years/$26m on Beltran Mr. Biggums. All things considered, that's looking pretty solid imo.

Not really seeing a 1 or 2 year situation playing out with Ortiz where i wouldn't be favoring Beltran there. Although since i wasn't out there also suggesting we not offer him arby at the time, i guess that's a moot point.

As I did say he wouldn't be getting that 15 million, however after Cuddyer signed for 10 he wasn't going to get less than him. I think it's solid for STL, but I still worry about his knees. More of a fit for a DH spot, however he doesn't have the power that Ortiz does. Thus, I still like Ortiz more, might cost 1 to 2 mil more but if he sucks we just cut bait at years end. If Beltran sucks or his knees go out again the Cards are stuck with him next year as well.