73 replies to this topic

[ivanvamp]

From today's Herald (http://bostonherald....orts&position=2), Tomase makes a pretty compelling case, actually, for re-signing Ortiz. He says this, "The Red Sox simply need guys who produce, and save for two bad Aprils in 2009 and ’10, they’ve had little reason to doubt Ortiz."

He's close to right. Ortiz had a horrible April *and* May in 2009, but he's pretty much right about this.

2009 (Jun-Sept): 104 g, 27 hr, 81 rbi, .264/.356/.548/.904
2010 (May-Sept): 129 g, 31 hr, 98 rbi, .286/.385/.558/.943
2011 (Apr-Sept): 146 g, 29 hr, 96 rbi, .309/.398/.554/.953

He really has given the Red Sox a huge advantage at that position. Pretty good case made by Tomase.

[BellhornIsGod]

Unless Ortiz accepts a 2 year deal I would pass, and I think he's going to want a 3 year deal.

As phenomenal as Ortiz was in 2011, he will be 36 years old next year and eventually for everyone, age becomes a factor. I'd rather get out a year early than 1-2 years late.

One thing that I would love is some flexibility with the DH position. A guy I would target is Michael Cuddyer, who is 3 and a half years younger than Ortiz and could play RF/3B and DH. He is also known for being a fantastic teammate and he crushed lefties at a .303/.403/.589 (.992OPS) clip last year. Having Youk DH ~60 games a year could do wonders for keeping him healthy and in the line-up. I'd roll with this:

Vs Righties

CF Ellsbury
2B Pedroia
1B Gonzalez
3B Youk
LF Crawford
DH Cuddyer
RF Reddick/Kalish (Spring training battle- the other starts in Pawtucket)
C Salty
SS Scutaro (pick up the option)

Bench

Lavarnway
Aviles
Lowrie
DMac/Reed Johnson/Right Handed hitting outfield depth

Vs Lefties

CF Ellsbury
2B Pedroia
1B Gonzalez
DH Youk
RF Cuddyer
C Lavarnway
LF Crawford
3B Lowrie
SS Scutaro

Bench

Aviles
Salty
Reddick/Kalish
DMac/Reed Johnson/Right Handed Hitting OF depth


Let Tek and Drew walk/retire as well in this hypothetical.

[moondog80]

Who will Ortiz' suitors be? Obviously we can forget about the NL. Team by team:

NYY: I would never count them out, but with A-Rod getting old and fragile and the want for everyday AB from Montero, I don't think it's likely.
Baltimore: Possible landing spot.
Toronto: Possible landing spot.
Tampa: They have the opening, but I don't see them spending the $.

Cleveland: Nope, Hafner.
Chicago: Do they just give up on Dunn and spend another 12 mil per year on a DH?
KC: I could sort of see it if they traded Butler.
Minnesota: I doubt it, not when they want to DH Mauer for some games, and possibly Morneau.
Detroit: Nope, V-Mart.

Oakland: Possible landing spot.
Texas: Nope, Young & Napoli.
Anaheim: Nope, Abreu (his 2012 option vested).
Seattle: I guess they need a DH, but there's just no way.


So what's that, 3 teams, maybe 4 if the Yanks get involved? And keep in mind that Vlad, Damon, and Matsui are all available. This is why I think he'll be back; there just won't be an attractive alternative for him.

[untilthebombs]

Man do I hate arguments even partially based on "if you ignore such and such..."

I'll probably post my thoughts later, but my main problem with this article/argument is that it treats resigning Ortiz as if we're in a vacuum. There are multiple significant considerations other then just Ortiz's production.

[clutch]

Unless we want to sign Fielder, Pujols or Beltran to play DH, which we don't, resigning Ortiz is not only wise, it's a must. There wasn't a DH last year who was close in production. Papi still gets on base a ton and he still hits for power, but obviously nothing lasts forever. The big question mark is his age and durability, but he proved last year he can still rake and still has something left in the tank. Taking the additional AB's in spring this year helped him get out of the gate and that should be a lesson learned. We could lessen his load a little too by giving Lavarnway or Youk AB's in certain match ups and hopefully that helps Papi down the stretch a little.

I think a 2 year deal with a team option at his current pay scale is justified. I would like to see him retire as a Red Sox and for once have something end well in Boston. If he leaves it's going to become an all out PR nightmare, and that's besides the point. His real value is his bat. If he doesn't produce we eat his contract, we've eaten a lot more money from a lot less valued players. Big Papi deserves to retire in Boston. He's earned it. This is the one player that making a sentimental decision on makes sense...and again, it's besides the point because he is still producing.

If he does stay there needs to be a come to Jesus talk with him. He needs to put the team before Big Papi and the new GM and manager need to communicate that to him. If you sweep the MFY's, talk about the team's accomplishment, not how the media made you a target for C.C., shut up and play ball.

I don't think Youk at DH is the solution and I would rather see Lavarnway catch, if he proves he can.

Edited by clutch, 18 October 2011 - 12:21 PM.

[MedfieldFan]

Unless we want to sign Fielder, Pujols or Beltran to play DH, which we don't, resigning Ortiz is not only wise, it's a must.

No, it isn't. I'll make the counter-argument - this team is too lefthanded already, David won't stand for being platooned, he won't sign a 1 year contract, and if you offer him arbitration and he turns it down, you net a draft pick. The market for DH's is not dry, and signing someone else for a fraction of the price would be very possible.

Unless he accepts arbitration - and hopefully that rings in below what he was paid last year, they should make no attempt to sign him.

All of this is putting aside the fact that the team desperately needs to create some turnover to put last year behind them.

Edited by MedfieldFan, 18 October 2011 - 12:44 PM.

[donchoi]

I'm gonna agree with MedfieldFan on this one. Ortiz wants at LEAST three years and I don't think we should give him more than 2/20 with a club option.

Offensive production (2009-2011)
Ortiz: .272/.366/.515, .375 wOBA, 1838 PA
Youkilis: .290/.399/.523, .399 wOBA, 1540 PA

Youkilis is better, younger, and he is signed already for about the same money. He has disappointed defensively at 3B, and he's broken down quite a bit the past two years. It seems like DH may be a good fit for him.

We offer him that deal, and when he refuses, we will let him walk, netting us two draft picks. I don't think he'll find the deal he's looking for anywhere else (New York has plenty of DHs already), and he may even come back to us, begging for the contract we first offered him. That wouldn't be so bad, either.

[ivanvamp]

I'm gonna agree with MedfieldFan on this one. Ortiz wants at LEAST three years and I don't think we should give him more than 2/20 with a club option.

Offensive production (2009-2011)
Ortiz: .272/.366/.515, .375 wOBA, 1838 PA
Youkilis: .290/.399/.523, .399 wOBA, 1540 PA

Youkilis is better, younger, and he is signed already for about the same money. He has disappointed defensively at 3B, and he's broken down quite a bit the past two years. It seems like DH may be a good fit for him.

We offer him that deal, and when he refuses, we will let him walk, netting us two draft picks. I don't think he'll find the deal he's looking for anywhere else (New York has plenty of DHs already), and he may even come back to us, begging for the contract we first offered him. That wouldn't be so bad, either.

Interestingly, even though I started the thread and said that Tomase made a good argument, I'm actually leaning towards not signing him and instead, going with signing someone like Willingham. Not quite as good as Ortiz, but (a) he's right-handed, and (b) he gives them much more roster flexibility. You could then spend less money, have more flexibility, and use the DH as a place to "rest" guys who could use a day off from playing in the field.

I think that's the way the DH should be approached moving forward, and I'm a big Ortiz fan. Obviously, if he's willing to take 2 years at $8m per, I guess you have to do that based on his production, but if he is going to command much more than that, I say do it a different way.

[clutch]

I'm not suggesting platooning Papi, I don't think he would go for it either, and I don't think it's necessary. He crushed left handed pitchers in 2011, in fact he did better versus lefties. I'm just saying there will be certain match ups where it will make sense for him to sit out and rest whether it's a RHP or a LHP and he will benefit from sitting those days.

Youkilis is better? Not last year he wasn't...even before his injuries. It's possible he was adjusting to playing again, or it's possible he's breaking down entirely. At this point Youks health is as much of a big unknown, and Papi did a lot last year to put to rest the questions from the previous springs.

Either way, who plays third and how do you replace Youks production at 3b if you move him to DH? I'd like to see Middlebrooks next year at some point if he can prove he can hit in the majors, but I'd rather keep Papi at DH and move Youk at the deadline to make room for the next era, provided Middlebrooks is effective. If Youk can stay healthy and still hit, he could end up netting something nice in return, while we slide Middlebrooks into the everyday lineup.

Why replace the heart of the order that helped produce the most runs in the game?

[MikeM]

A multiple year offer to a 36 age DH-only (coming off a contract year bounce back season no less) isn't really striking me as a strong sell here, especially given all the BS swirling around this team/franchise atm. Which isn't to say i've suddenly become some chemistry disciple or anything................but yeah. When applying that former to a specific latter, in this case being a guy who (imo) seemed to spend the last year+ caring little about anything beyond seizing whatever opportunity he could find to whine about his contract situation, i'm seeing a spin of that wheel coming up as double whammy.

A plan was (or should have) been put in place the day that Adrian Gonzalez trade went through. Youk to 3rd as the 2011 stopgap, then a gradual transition to DH there going forward beyond that (barring the emergence of a legitimate full time option at 3rd, at which point Youk would be slotted over to DH full time). Ortiz having such a strong 2011 may have presented a more painful transition (on paper) then was initially expected, but in the grader scheme of things i'm just not convinced it warrants a deviation there.

Of course, now we just need a GM that's going to do a better job with the money we'll "save" there.

Edited by MikeM, 18 October 2011 - 04:09 PM.

[jasail]

While I don't disagree with much of what Tomase wrote, my feelings are that Youk needs to DH on this team for the following reasons:

1) Ortiz is 36 next year and will likely want to be signed through age 39 at about $12M/annum. It's time to move on.
2) Youkilis is not a 3B and his trade value is low due to injury.
3) Youkilis and Ortiz will cost roughly the same amount and produce at a similar level over the next 2 years.
4) Youkilis is off the books earlier than Ortiz.
5) Youkilis provides position flexibility as he is able to play 3 positions (1B/3B/LF) with varying degrees of skill.
a) This gives the manager the ability to give AGonz, Pedroia and Ellsbury days off without taking their bats out of the lineup.
b) It also lets the manager work in ABs for Lavarnway on days when he is not catching.
6) I do not care if he goes to the Yankees because he will be taking ABs at DH away from Jeter, ARod, Montero and Tex
a) Each would benefit from physically or developmentally from more DH ABs.
b) Over the course of the season a full time DH may work against their total productivity.

[Cellar-Door]

The only situation I would want to see Ortiz back under is a 2 year deal (he won't take 1, no way you can offer 3) if we get a good offer for Youkilis. With the market for starters as weak as it is, I think you have to see if anyone .is willing to give you something approaching value for Youkilis in a starter. I don't see how he plays more than 100 games at 3B tops, he has to be the DH much of the time. However as a 1B he might appeal to a lot of teams, especially if they think he can split between 1B and 3B. If you move Youk Ortiz is a more than adequate replacement, otherwise I think he has to go since Youk is under contract and not really capable of playing 3B fulltime

Edited by Cellar-Door, 19 October 2011 - 02:23 AM.

[jdm2008]

Vlad got 1 year 8 million one year ago. Both players can "kind of" play one position but in reality are DHs, and Vlad a similiar year to Ortiz this year. I don't know why Ortiz or everyone thinks Ortiz will get a huge contract. I would give Ortiz 2/23 at the max.

[BoredViewer]

I'm still trying to understand the incredible drop in K's Ortiz had this season. Even in his best years, Ortiz was K-ing at higher rate. Was this a fluke? Does it reflect a new approach we can expect moving forward? Is there any precedent for such a drop in an age 35 season of a significant hitter?

[clutch]

Vlad got 1 year 8 million one year ago. Both players can "kind of" play one position but in reality are DHs, and Vlad a similiar year to Ortiz this year. I don't know why Ortiz or everyone thinks Ortiz will get a huge contract. I would give Ortiz 2/23 at the max.

Vlad did not have close to the year Ortiz did. Papi hit 29 home runs to Vlads 13. Papi got on base a lot more and hit for more power - his OPS is more than 200 points higher than Vlads.

I still say give him a 2 year deal and make him happy. If we end up eating the 2nd year who cares? It's not our money and he is the one Red Sox player who has earned it. Paying players money to not play seems to be the preferred way of doing business these days any way.

Speaking of strike outs...I'm curious about Pedroia's startling increase in strike outs. HIs average strikeouts, not including his shortened season last year - for 07, 08, and 09 was 46. This year it was 85.

Edited by clutch, 21 October 2011 - 01:33 PM.

[mBiferi]

Vlad did not have close to the year Ortiz did. Papi hit 29 home runs to Vlads 13. Papi got on base a lot more and hit for more power - his OPS is more than 200 points higher than Vlads.

I still say give him a 2 year deal and make him happy. If we end up eating the 2nd year who cares? It's not our money and he is the one Red Sox player who has earned it. Paying players money to not play seems to be the preferred way of doing business these days any way.

Speaking of strike outs...I'm curious about Pedroia's startling increase in strike outs. HIs average strikeouts, not including his shortened season last year - for 07, 08, and 09 was 46. This year it was 85.

He meant Vlad's 2010, when he hit .300 with 29Hrs... That's when he signed with the O's for 8m.

So, a lot of you guys are saying that we should let one of the best hitters in the league (this year) go, when he might not even get offers anywhere? Really?

You give Ortiz a 2/22m deal and he'll sign right away. Even if he doesn't hit like this year, paying 10-11M for a 850OPS DH it's not so bad.

[Cellar-Door]

He meant Vlad's 2010, when he hit .300 with 29Hrs... That's when he signed with the O's for 8m.

So, a lot of you guys are saying that we should let one of the best hitters in the league (this year) go, when he might not even get offers anywhere? Really?

You give Ortiz a 2/22m deal and he'll sign right away. Even if he doesn't hit like this year, paying 10-11M for a 850OPS DH it's not so bad.

What do you do with Youkilis though, there's no way you get more than 200 games at 3B out of hi the next two years.

[mBiferi]

What do you do with Youkilis though, there's no way you get more than 200 games at 3B out of hi the next two years.

You try to trade him for pitching, prospects, whatever... I love Youks, but he can't stay healthy anymore. If you don't find a match, you keep him and play him at 3rd as long as you can. And you don't need to get games at 3b out of him in 2013 because that's a club option.

Kevin Youkilis 1b
4 years/$41.125M (2009-12), plus 2013 club option

[nighthob]

I'd rather have the draft picks and Youkilis as the DH.

[wine111]

I'd rather have the draft picks and Youkilis as the DH.

I agree. And the idea of trading one of the few quality right handed hitters we have in Youk makes less sense than letting Ortiz go. They also have Reddick and Kalish coming up who are both left handed. If you take Youk away from third base, I think he will avoid injury much more effectively. And I would like to see the Red Sox use the money for Ortiz to get a fourth starter (hopefully Edwin Jackson). I really think the pitching staff is the major priority this winter. If we find we need offense during the season, it is much easier to trade for offense at the July trading deadline than it is to get pitching.

[mBiferi]

I really don't get the big deal about the LH hitting. Ortiz was one of the best hitters in the league, period. If you want to let him go because of clubhouse issues, fine. I can see that. But on the field, he was a force this year, and has been pretty reliable the last few years. Youkilis has not been durable for two years now and who knows if this get fixed by moving him to the DH slot. Another thing to wonder, is how comfortable would Youks be by not playing the field. He sure can be a little prick in the clubhouse...
If the money and years are right (which should be, given the market), Ortiz should be brought back.

And it's not like you give away Youks, you try to trade him for something valuable. If you don't find a match you just ride him at 3rd and see how it goes... The 3B market is pretty weak, anyway.

[threecy]

Speaking of strike outs...I'm curious about Pedroia's startling increase in strike outs. HIs average strikeouts, not including his shortened season last year - for 07, 08, and 09 was 46. This year it was 85.

I'd suggest it had something to do with having a metal pin in his foot, as well as the knee injury.

In April-May, he struck out 37 times. In June-July, he struck out 14 times. In August-September, he struck out 34 times.


My concern with Ortiz, in addition to how he appears increasingly bitter as each year passes, is when will he have the Jim Rice dropoff. We've seen a few hints of it in recent years (not in 2011).

In 1984, Rice saw a somewhat sizable dropoff in OPS (-.120 to .791), however saw increases to .836 and .874 through 1986.
In 2009, Ortiz saw a dropoff in OPS (-.083 to .794; a -.272 dropoff in two years), however saw increases to .899 and .953 through 2011.

Also, roughly within the above periods, both hitters saw a decreased rate of striking out.

Of course, we all know the story with Jim Rice. Starting in 1987, he fell off a cliff and was no longer above replacement level at the plate or in the field.

[rglenmt]

David Ortiz has to be the biggest clutch producer the period of seasons which produced 2 World Championships. Not that other players were not important, even our friend ManRam, although the Red Sox did not win the Series for way too many seasons. Also, the Red Sox acquired one of the best hitters, Adrian Gonalez, in many years, one who could put up stats, with healthy longevity, may approach numbers by an already proven to be great hitters in modern times. I have to admit Teddy "Ballgame" Williams is my standard, whom I truly believe, had he been able to play the additional 5 seasons Ted served out Country, would likely have the best stats, enhancing drugs free, of all times. I think the real Adrian Gonzalez is the hitter we saw the first half of the 2011 season and that Adrian Gonzalez will figure out the bad habit he got into chasing balls in the dirt and the HR slump he incurred after the All Star Game.

Back to the topic, however, David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez, really do slow down the Red Sox too sigificantly on the basepaths, Ortiz actually being the faster once he gets his freight train moving, but my thought is that the Red Sox must move on. The team has to build around Ellsbury, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Crawford, a healthy Kevin Youkilis or Kevin's replacement, find out if Saltalamacchia and Lavarnway can successfully share the catching and DH duties, even if necessary with another catcher stong on his defensive skills.

Edited by rglenmt, 24 October 2011 - 07:57 AM.

[untilthebombs]

I really don't get the big deal about the LH hitting. Ortiz was one of the best hitters in the league, period. If you want to let him go because of clubhouse issues, fine. I can see that. But on the field, he was a force this year, and has been pretty reliable the last few years. Youkilis has not been durable for two years now and who knows if this get fixed by moving him to the DH slot. Another thing to wonder, is how comfortable would Youks be by not playing the field. He sure can be a little prick in the clubhouse...
If the money and years are right (which should be, given the market), Ortiz should be brought back.

And it's not like you give away Youks, you try to trade him for something valuable. If you don't find a match you just ride him at 3rd and see how it goes... The 3B market is pretty weak, anyway.

Though I don't want to see him brought back, your point about not worrying about the heavy LHH is right on. Over the course of the regular season, stuff like that really doesn't matter. You never want to sign a RHH over a LHH just to balance out the lineup if that RHH isn't as good. It's only in September/October that match-ups become larger issues, but if you're worried about them when setting your lineup in the offseason, you may not get to there.

[wine111]

I really don't get the big deal about the LH hitting. Ortiz was one of the best hitters in the league, period. If you want to let him go because of clubhouse issues, fine. I can see that. But on the field, he was a force this year, and has been pretty reliable the last few years. Youkilis has not been durable for two years now and who knows if this get fixed by moving him to the DH slot. Another thing to wonder, is how comfortable would Youks be by not playing the field. He sure can be a little prick in the clubhouse...
If the money and years are right (which should be, given the market), Ortiz should be brought back.

And it's not like you give away Youks, you try to trade him for something valuable. If you don't find a match you just ride him at 3rd and see how it goes... The 3B market is pretty weak, anyway.

My point is not the RH versus LH in your average major league ballpark. You need good right handed hitters if your home park is Fenway Park. VIrtually any RH hitter benefits from hitting in Fenway Park. Only LH hitters with good inside out swings (except for Ellsbury, Gonzalez and Ortiz, who have enough power to hit bombs into the RF bullpen with regularity) tend to succeed in Fenway. Drew and Crawford clearly did not benefit. Ortiz is getting old and that is a problem. Youk is very fragile in the field. That is a problem. Oritz is in the way of Youk playing a full season healthy and I take Youk at his younger age and as a RH hitter in Fenway over Ortiz. I definetly want more RH hitters in our home park. Middlebrooks has a chance of being promoted to the big club some time this year as the new 3B. It makes no sense to have Youk blocking him. Iglesias and Middlebrooks is the SS and 3B combo the Red Sox want. They have a good shot of being in place by 2013. I like the idea of Youk, Middlebrooks, Pedroia and Lavarnway (platooning with Salty in 2012) being RH bats in Fenway for the next few years. If the Sox don't want to pick up the 2013 option on Youk, then Lavarnway could take over that spot. We can't keep Papi forever and as history shows with hitters in their late 30's, the end can come fast.

We can use the money that we save by not signing Ortiz to make some much needed upgrades to the pitching staff. We could get a strong 3-4 years out of Youk at DH where I see Papi as having maybe one more solid season in his bat. In 2012, Ortiz could easily see a drop like Vlad Guerrero had from 2010 to 2011. Youk will be 33 next year. Papi will be 36. Youk has much more mileage left. But it makes no sense to leave him at 3B to get beat up and injured again. This team does need to get younger. I like having our DH 3 years younger next year as a start.

Edited by wine111, 22 October 2011 - 07:17 PM.

[Wake's knuckle]

I have several concerns with re-signing Ortiz. First and foremost, he'll want to be paid for past performance, not predicted future performance -- even once the market sets itself and shows him that he's not worth as much as he feels he is. Given his age, it's very likely that there is going to be a LARGE gap there. We really don't want to end up doing with him what the Yanks did with Jeter last year.

Secondly, Youk is clearly a 1B/DH type. Several of us stated during last off-season that we thought moving Youk back to 3rd would be a big mistake, simply due to the wear and tear on his body. These fears were ultimately borne out, as Youk spent a lot of time on the DL. As such, we have two very good 1B/DH types on the team already, both making a lot of money with several years left on their contracts. So unless Youk can be moved, there's really not enough space in the lineup for all three of these guys, no matter how beloved.

Lastly, after last season's debacle, it's probably best to lower expectations for next year and invest in other areas. Putting Papi's salary in a few international free agents (or putting it towards Yu-know-who) is probably a better long-term strategy.

What we need is a 3B or a SP, not another 1B/DH.

[untilthebombs]

Ortiz will be back. The market just isn't there. All the talking on his part reeks of desperation. He and the Red Sox will come to reasonable 2 year agreement. Maybe with a team option for a third year just to make it look good.

[MikeM]

Ortiz will be back. The market just isn't there. All the talking on his part reeks of desperation. He and the Red Sox will come to reasonable 2 year agreement. Maybe with a team option for a third year just to make it look good.

If the market isn't there, there's really nothing all that "reasonable" imo in handing Ortiz a multi-year contract we otherwise shouldn't have to.

I mean in the end, i can probably get on board with a concept of bringing Ortiz back in the best interests of the 2012 season, while once again rolling the dice that Youk can stay relatively healthy at 3rd. But if that indeed plays out to be the direction we decidedly go in, the commitment line needs to be drawn there.

No Jeter'ish type contract negotiations please. If Ortiz gets a 2 year contract offer elsewhere, or favors another 1 year deal because he's all pissy we won't go 2, let him walk.

[jdm2008]

Ortiz will be back. The market just isn't there. All the talking on his part reeks of desperation. He and the Red Sox will come to reasonable 2 year agreement. Maybe with a team option for a third year just to make it look good.

Vlad took a 1 year 8 million contract after a very good year in 2009. I don't Ortiz is getting anywhere close 3/45.

Edited by jdm2008, 06 November 2011 - 02:09 PM.

[untilthebombs]

Vlad took a 1 year 8 million contract after a very good year in 2009. I don't Ortiz is getting anywhere close 3/45.

Can't support a 3 year guaranteed. And don't think they'll have to go near $45 mil.

Just to be fair though, 2009 Vlad wasn't even a shell of what Ortiz just did in 2011. Not to mention that Vlad set career lows across in avg/obp/slg in 2009. OPS+ has Vlad at 101 in 2009, Ortiz at 154 in 2011.

[keninten]

Hopefully the Sox will offer arbitration. If he accepts he will get close to $15mil in 2012, I`d consider that fair. If he doesn`t accept we could get him back for $10mil or just take the 2 draft picks.

[MikeM]

Just to be fair though, 2009 Vlad wasn't even a shell of what Ortiz just did in 2011. Not to mention that Vlad set career lows across in avg/obp/slg in 2009. OPS+ has Vlad at 101 in 2009, Ortiz at 154 in 2011.

The $8m contract i believe he was referring to actually came last winter, after putting up a .300/.345/.496 line in 2010. Which while still not exactly putting him on par with Ortiz now, who was one the best hitters in baseball in 2011, is certainly representative of a better base to go off of then the contract he signed post-2009 ($5m).

Just saying

[CLowe]

@Jen_Royle Jen Royle Source: #Orioles are prepared to make David Ortiz a two-year offer. Hearing there's interest from both sides.

Edited by CLowe, 18 November 2011 - 10:18 PM.

[untilthebombs]

Two years? Let him go. Sign Kelly Shoppach and Carlos Beltran.

[Towney007]

Well a lot to consider.

Ortiz is 36
Ortiz is a big guy
Older big guys don't age well
He offers zero defensive value
Youkilis is getting older and more fragile, may benefit from added days off
Upgrading the defense on the left side of the infield could be done cheaply while keeping the offense mostly the same
Ryan Lavarnway has a really good bat
The lineup is pretty lefty-heavy, could possibly benefit from a right handed bat

The quasi-industry standard is that 1 WAR usually translates to about $5 million per year in salary. If that's the case then let's look at it this way:

Ortiz's WAR over the last four years:

1.1
0.5
2.8
3.8

That four year average works out to 2.05WAR/season without him regressing with his age. If we take the industry, we're looking at around $10-$12 million per year. I think regression has to be taken into account, so let's say 2 years, $20 million and load the contract with around $5 million in incentives. That's 2 years, potential for $25 million which essentially would reward him for keeping up his current production and keep his salary roughly the same as it is now. From a production standpoint, that's a fair deal. The only real competition, I think, is in Toronto, as they're looking for protection for Bautista, but I'm not sure Ortiz is as valuable to them as a pitcher - plus they've got so many young guys who might be poised to break out that it might not make sense to spend the money. He's got some novelty appeal in Baltimore, but really outside of that, I don't know where he fits. Seattle and Oakland are black holes and Oakland is in a holding pattern until they get a new stadium, so I don't see them being super aggressive. I feel like Boston is his best bet for a deal and he can leverage himself better because his 2.0WAR are two really freaking valuable wins if you take this year into consideration and the fact that the difference between 91 wins and 90 wins is millions in extra revenue. He can make the case for some extra value there. I think the Sox would be willing to go a little higher than his real value, too. I don't think money is as much the issue as the years are.

If it's 3 years, then walk. Period. End of discussion. The Red Sox have the leverage here.

They could sign a Carlos Beltran, give them a boost defensively on off days for Reddick, DH Beltran and Youkilis and essentially keep a rotation moving through. Beltran doesn't give you Ortiz's level of value in offensive production, but he certainly does defensively. They could pass on Beltran and stick with Lavarnway and if necessary - deal for a bat at the deadline if Lavarnway doesn't work out there. They could trade for a defensive-minded 3B with a league-average/slightly below average bat and DH Youkilis. Cuddyer could be an option, too - especially with the 3B piece added in there. So I dunno, I feel like there are a ton of options for them outside of Ortiz. From my perspective, I'd just like to see them make a decision and move on to building the rotation and racking up pitching depth - which is the issue. Thankfully, the Papelbon ordeal settled itself quickly. Hopefully they can get this done fast, too.

[MikeM]

Two years? Let him go. Sign Kelly Shoppach and Carlos Beltran.

I'm in on Beltran as a replacement there if he can be had on a 2 year deal. That said, it's something that needs to be fully explored asap, as i'd be nervous watching Ortiz sign elsewhere in the event i didn't have some reassurance on that being a solid possibility.

Would love to hear/know Boras' opening demand there atm.

[Towney007]

I think Beltran fits like a glove here to be honest. I think (ok, more like hope) his injury issues are somewhat mitigated by part-time DH-ing. He brings defensive value and some flexibility to move guys around on off days. He's a switch hitter. I think his power numbers go way up and the guy's super-athletic. Those guys tend to see their skills stick around longer. At 34 years, a 2 year deal would be pretty good I'd think. I'm not sure I'd be doing cartwheels for three, but if the price per year is similar to Ortiz's, or even close to it, I'd probably err to signing Beltran. Plus I think he frees you up to potentially trade Kalish or Reddick depending on who you want to stick with. He can bridge you to Kalish and help Kalish ease into the spot. OR, he can split time with Reddick and help you deal the sexier prospect in Kalish. The other thing maybe some people might be overlooking - and I don't like saying it - but is the possibility of Ellsbury bailing after next year and having a hole in CF. Beltran's played there and while he's obviously not a long-term solution, he's a stop gap should you find yourself in a worst-case scenario. And let's not forget the guy's been playing in a hitter-hell hole in Citi field.... he could very well put up similar power numbers to Papi.

Boston would also be attractive because he could bag a $25-$30 million contract and thanks to the park, inflate his numbers enough to be in line for potentially one more multi-year deal from someone when he leaves. I'd think there'd be some appeal in that. Who knows.

But I like Beltran.

[jdm2008]

Two years? Let him go. Sign Kelly Shoppach and Carlos Beltran.

Beltran will take alot more years and alot more money. And Ortiz is a better hitter.

[rglenmt]

Wow! A number of choices. Is Salty the hitter Theo thought he would be? as I don't believe he is the catcher the team hoped, only Gary Tuck really knows. The team needs to approach next season with versatility. I see Kevin Youkilis, already under Contract, as the primary DH, with Adrian Gonzalez, Salty and Lavarnway getting some DH time when Youk either plays 1B or gets a day off. I would rather see some of the money spent on another Starting Pitcher and a righthanded or switchitting righfielder. Not certain who is in that mix for the Starting Pitcher, but Bard, Aceves and FAs such as CJ Wilson and others could be in the mix to join Beckett, Lester and Buchholz in the rotations. If the Red Sox sign Yoenis Cespedes, a decision will have to made whether he is ready to be a ML rightfielder, or if not is Juan Carlos Linares, the other righthanded hitter, ready. One of the 2 lefthanded hitting outfielders with whom the Red Sox are very familiar, Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish, are likely to be the 4th outfielder and if neither Cespedes is signed or Linares is not ready, I would rather see the money spent on Carlos Beltran, also a switchitter and someone who could be groomed to do some time at DH. A key decision will be whether and how soon the team thinks Will Middlebrooks may be ready to be the regular 3B.

We don't expect John Lackey and DiceK to be part of the starting rotation in 2012. I would much rather see money spent of starting and relief pitchers and for the most part, maybe with the exception of maybe FA Beltan, spent on pitching, and not on David Ortiz.

[Tyrone Biggums]

I didn't see too many issues with Salty last year, I think that sometimes catchers develop late and he might have been a case of that. I would expect 20 homers out of him in 2012, that being said I wouldn't mind seeing the Sox go after Cuddyer and Kubel as both combined could probably be had at the same price as Ortiz. You could make a lineup like this

CF Ellsbury
LF Crawford (I would prefer him playing RF to take advantage of his range, its a possibility)
2B Pedroia
1B Adrian Gonzalez
3B Youkilis
RF Cuddyer
DH Kubel/Lavernway
C Salty
SS Scutaro

If not then I would go with Youk as the DH and just platoon him Lavarnway and A-Gon to give them all rest. DH really is the easiest position to fill, and just remember when we picked up Ortiz...he was not the Big Papi that we know now. I mean I would go short years but if he wants a big 2 year deal then as crappy as it would be to see him in another uniform it might be time to go.

[untilthebombs]

Beltran will take alot more years and alot more money. And Ortiz is a better hitter.

If the O's reported two year deal will have to be matched (the caveat that the post quoted states), the difference in years are nominal. Beltran will get three years. Not a lot more than two. The difference in dollars per year each player will necessitate is inconsequential; a two or three million. Not a lot more.

Three year average of OPS+ tells us that the difference in the two hitters is currently little, if any:

Ortiz: 131
Beltran: 135

Three factors separate them, first, Beltran is two years younger. If either player is more likely to suffer serious regression over the next two, three years, it's the older Ortiz. Second, Beltran can still play in the field, if only to an average level, freeing up the DH position to give players days off. Third, I'm not generally an advocate of acquiring players because of platoons, but with both Ortiz and Beltran putting up very similar OPS, it's worth considering.

Edited by untilthebombs, 19 November 2011 - 03:22 PM.

[Towney007]

I don't get the point of the 'Beltran will cost more' argument. Of course he would cost more - he's younger and brings more value to the table with his glove. If the whole point of free agency is to buy a player based on his future performance - then it's a good bet that Beltran will be the better player. So he'll cost more. In my opinion, if the price is anywhere near the same, Beltran would be the guy i'd take.

[MikeM]

that being said I wouldn't mind seeing the Sox go after Cuddyer and Kubel as both combined could probably be had at the same price as Ortiz.

Not quite sure what i'd speculate Kubel's market value to be at, but everything i've seen/read on Cuddyer this winter is logically suggesting that he's going to end up with a pretty inflated and "default" type deal. Probably starting at 3 years, and for $10m'ish/per year money.

There's simply not enough bat there to support that type of commitment, imo. Plus the Sox really need to focus on attempting to get better right now. We've already taken what potentially may play out to be huge step backwards in regards to our bullpen, and barring a risk i don't see us taking, are currently projected to enter 2012 with a pretty questionable bottom half of the rotation ( if the account of Aceves being told to to ready himself for the rotation is correct, i generally believe there's a lot of denial going around on the probability of Tim Wakefield ending up with that last spot).

If it's not Beltran walking through that door, i'm not sure we can afford to lose Papi's bat right now.

[Tyrone Biggums]

Not quite sure what i'd speculate Kubel's market value to be at, but everything i've seen/read on Cuddyer this winter is logically suggesting that he's going to end up with a pretty inflated and "default" type deal. Probably starting at 3 years, and for $10m'ish/per year money.

There's simply not enough bat there to support that type of commitment, imo. Plus the Sox really need to focus on attempting to get better right now. We've already taken what potentially may play out to be huge step backwards in regards to our bullpen, and barring a risk i don't see us taking, are currently projected to enter 2012 with a pretty questionable bottom half of the rotation ( if the account of Aceves being told to to ready himself for the rotation is correct, i generally believe there's a lot of denial going around on the probability of Tim Wakefield ending up with that last spot).

If it's not Beltran walking through that door, i'm not sure we can afford to lose Papi's bat right now.

I would be weary of committing x amount of dollars to a outfielder in his mid 30's with medical red flags...but that's just me

[MikeM]

I don't get the point of the 'Beltran will cost more' argument. Of course he would cost more - he's younger and brings more value to the table with his glove. If the whole point of free agency is to buy a player based on his future performance - then it's a good bet that Beltran will be the better player. So he'll cost more. In my opinion, if the price is anywhere near the same, Beltran would be the guy i'd take.

Yeah, i don't really get all the hate towards Beltran either. I mean, i get the need/desire to put an extreme focus on "value" here, usually to the extent of debating the production-per-dollar aspect to death in every contract that comes along. I'm also as guilty as anybody (at any given time ) of dismissing a possibility that falls into the less-then-ideal category there, and there's no denying Beltran potentially plays out to be a fairly expensive risk.

With that said though, it's worth keeping in mind and not losing sight of the the ultimately goal behind all of that, which isn't to simply field the most cost efficient roster. As at the the end of the day, it's not a guy's contract that takes the field for you, and bonus wins/loses for being cost efficient are not being handed out there or in the standings. (AKA: say what you want about whether or not Papelbon was worth the contract he signed for, but this commonly attached/presented notion that we somehow "won" anything in the process of watching our elite closer walk out the door falls fairly short of a complete picture reality, imo.)

As i stated in the Yankee forum the other day, sometimes there's value found in the stuff that can't be calculated out on paper. Right now, Beltran as the 1 alternative option out there that potentially helps us avoid taking yet another step backwards practically oozes with it, imo.Maybe not "at all costs' type ooze, but a 2 year contract is hardly unreasonable given the surrounding circumstances. Well, at least while initially assuming that's a possibility.

Edited by MikeM, 19 November 2011 - 03:39 PM.

[MikeM]

I would be weary of committing x amount of dollars to a outfielder in his mid 30's with medical red flags...but that's just me

As opposed to what, committing a little less (for a potentially longer duration) on that soon to be 33 year old outfielder with the downgrade bat?

[Tyrone Biggums]

Yeah, i don't really get all the hate towards Beltran either. I mean, i get the need/desire to put an extreme focus on "value" here, usually to the extent of debating the production-per-dollar aspect to death in every contract that comes along. I'm also as guilty as anybody (at any given time ) of dismissing a possibility that falls into the less-then-ideal category there, and there's no denying Beltran potentially plays out to be a fairly expensive risk.

With that said though, it's worth keeping in mind and not losing sight of the the ultimately goal behind all of that, which isn't to simply field the most cost efficient roster. As at the the end of the day, it's not a guy's contract that takes the field for you, and bonus wins/loses for being cost efficient are not being handed out there or in the standings. (AKA: say what you want about whether or not Papelbon was worth the contract he signed for, but this commonly attached/presented notion that we somehow "won" anything in the process of watching our elite closer walk out the door falls fairly short of a complete picture reality, imo.)

As i stated in the Yankee forum the other day, sometimes there's value found in the stuff that can't be calculated out on paper. Right now, Beltran as the 1 alternative option out there that potentially helps us avoid taking yet another step backwards practically oozes with it, imo.Maybe not "at all costs' type ooze, but a 2 year contract is hardly unreasonable given the surrounding circumstances. Well, at least while initially assuming that's a possibility.

The problem is that whoever signs Beltran will probably have to commit to a 4 year deal, this has been the norm that has been reported however only on this board have we came up with the assumption that Beltran would take 2 years. Beltran has a lot of red flags mostly medical related, battling quad and knee injuries while he was with the Mets.

[MikeM]

The problem is that whoever signs Beltran will probably have to commit to a 4 year deal, this has been the norm that has been reported however only on this board have we came up with the assumption that Beltran would take 2 years. Beltran has a lot of red flags mostly medical related, battling quad and knee injuries while he was with the Mets.

I personally haven't seen any 4 year speculation yet.

I'd look more for it right now, but i'm walking out the door for a night out, and seeing that would pretty much ruin it

[Towney007]

I've seen nothing on Beltran looking for four years. And what's the infatuation with Cuddyer anyway and who would honestly try and make a case of him being a better contract than Beltran? It's not like he hasn't had his fair share of dings and bruises, either. If the prices on both are even remotely comparable, then I'm buying Beltran all day. He's a better player.

[Tyrone Biggums]

I've seen nothing on Beltran looking for four years. And what's the infatuation with Cuddyer anyway and who would honestly try and make a case of him being a better contract than Beltran? It's not like he hasn't had his fair share of dings and bruises, either. If the prices on both are even remotely comparable, then I'm buying Beltran all day. He's a better player.

It depends on the value and if you believe Beltran can stay healthy. I never said that Cuddyer is a better player than Beltran, all I was saying was that it might be better for the Sox to use the Ortiz money to grab two players for the price of one. Cuddyer I doubt will get 10 million a year, Beltran will get much more than that. Whether Beltran gets 3 years or 4 years, hes going to be looking for his last big contract. Say if the Sox get Beltran for I dunno...4 years 48 million or 3/36, that is 30 plus million a year committed to the corner outfield spots. The years I mention mostly because the Sox have a Center Fielder who is closing in on free agency in two years also. If the Sox are saddled with too many big contracts then Ellsbury will be going elsewhere. I'm not saying that throwing 13 million a year to Beltran would absolutely kill any chance of bringing back Ellsbury, however, I don't think that signing the biggest name is always the answer.

There are plenty of people out there who can become an option (Cody Ross comes to mind), but if we are banking on a 34 year old Beltran who has had multiple injury issues to stay healthy for the duration of a multi year contract then that is delusional. If a younger Beltran was banged up for much of his tenure with the Mets on a long term deal, this would make him the ultimate boom or bust signing. For a team that has a lot of holes to fill with the Rotation/Pen/RF/DH and a limited amount of money to do it with spending a good chunk of money for a guy that may or may not be healthy through the year is really not the best way to spend it. Not to mention that Beltran axed a trade at the deadline to an AL team because he absolutely refused to become a DH, productive 37 year old Right Fielders don't usually exist.

My previous point about this...Kubel could be had for half the price of Ortiz but hes a butcher in the field and should never see RF. However if the Sox resign Papi then I'll be thrilled just as long as its not for 3 years.

Edited by Tyrone Biggums, 19 November 2011 - 07:09 PM.