451 replies to this topic

[KyleTheCubsFan]

What are you talking about, $6.5 million? Theo isn't projected to make nearly that much next year. They could easily afford to pay him his million or so dollars. Again, the Sox have the leverage here, as much as you want to think otherwise.

Theo Epstein is scheduled to make $1.5 million next year. He has a conclusion bonus in his contract that, if reports are correct, will pay him $3.5 million if he leaves the Red Sox this year and $5 million if he leaves them in 2012. The Cubs are offering to pay that conclusion bonus this year.

Scenario A:
The Red Sox accept what the Cubs are offering in decent but not top-tier prospects. They pay Epstein nothing.

Scenario B:
The Red Sox pay Epstein $1.5 million in salary and $5 million in a conclusion bonus at the end of 2012. That's a total of $6.5 million.

I have too much respect for the Red Sox organization to believe they will actually go through with B. If they will, they are not as smart as I think they are, and I'm happy to see the Cubs move on to their next choice.

[Tyrone Biggums]

Theo Epstein is scheduled to make $1.5 million next year. He has a conclusion bonus in his contract that, if reports are correct, will pay him $3.5 million if he leaves the Red Sox this year and $5 million if he leaves them in 2012. The Cubs are offering to pay that conclusion bonus this year.

Scenario A:
The Red Sox accept what the Cubs are offering in decent but not top-tier prospects. They pay Epstein nothing.

Scenario B:
The Red Sox pay Epstein $1.5 million in salary and $5 million in a conclusion bonus at the end of 2012. That's a total of $6.5 million.

I have too much respect for the Red Sox organization to believe they will actually go through with B. If they will, they are not as smart as I think they are, and I'm happy to see the Cubs move on to their next choice.

I would be getting used to that next choice as I honestly think that LL will blow this puppy up and Theo will be the highest paid consultant in the game.

[KyleTheCubsFan]

I would be getting used to that next choice as I honestly think that LL will blow this puppy up and Theo will be the highest paid consultant in the game.

My guess is that this is just posturing from both sides. The Red Sox seem like a smart organization to me, and a few mid-grade prospects + not having to spend $6.5 million is not something they'd just throw away over pride. But I could be wrong.

Edited by KyleTheCubsFan, 15 October 2011 - 05:26 PM.

[jdm2008]

My guess is that this is just posturing from both sides. The Red Sox seem like a smart organization to me, and a few mid-grade prospects + not having to spend $6.5 million is not something they'd just throw away over pride. But I could be wrong.

Not just over pride. There is something to gain and something to lose. What the sox stand to think is to gain is the question. If they think they can get the cubs to do a lackey for zambrano swap or give up castro or something, they aren't throwing away 6.5 million over pride they are throwing it away over the chance to get that. I as a redsox fan have no problem for that. Do i think they should settle for Brett Jackson and cash, yes, but if they want to go for the gold and they don't think 6.5 million to lose is a deal breaker than thats fine with me. The sox have no obligation to let theo out of his contract, they definetely have no obligation to let him go and take the rest of the FO with him which it sounds like the cubs want to do.

Edited by jdm2008, 15 October 2011 - 05:34 PM.

[ivanvamp]

My guess is that this is just posturing from both sides. The Red Sox seem like a smart organization to me, and a few mid-grade prospects + not having to spend $6.5 million is not something they'd just throw away over pride. But I could be wrong.

Thanks for the $$ clarification. But jdm2008 is right - this isn't just about pride. It's about another team taking away your top executive and another front office person or two, while that executive is under contract. The Red Sox are absolutely within their rights to demand, and expect, some sort of compensation beyond mere $$.

Now, from the main board, a report states that the Sox won't be getting Brett Jackson, which is actually okay with me b/c their OF is mostly set already. But I still think they should get *some* players of value back.

[KyleTheCubsFan]

If the Cubs get to take some front office personnel besides Epstein, that's a whole 'nother canard and the value goes up considerably. It's still not going to include Brett Jackson, but at that point I'd probably put Cashner somewhere in the same room as the table.

[KyleTheCubsFan]

Not just over pride. There is something to gain and something to lose. What the sox stand to think is to gain is the question. If they think they can get the cubs to do a lackey for zambrano swap or give up castro or something, they aren't throwing away 6.5 million over pride they are throwing it away over the chance to get that. I as a redsox fan have no problem for that. Do i think they should settle for Brett Jackson and cash, yes, but if they want to go for the gold and they don't think 6.5 million to lose is a deal breaker than thats fine with me. The sox have no obligation to let theo out of his contract, they definetely have no obligation to let him go and take the rest of the FO with him which it sounds like the cubs want to do.

Unless they think the Cubs are terminally stupid (which I'll grant isn't always a bad assumption), there isn't anything to gain. If they reject a package that includes, say, Vitters, McNutt and cash, then the only place left to go is to the Cashner/Jackson/Castro pile. For the Cubs, going with a second-choice GM or waiting a year is significantly better than giving up anyone in that pile.

So unless the Red Sox have a vastly different read on the Cubs' values than I do, there's no scenario in which they come out ahead of a Vitters/McNutt/cash type offer. Unless they value their pride more than that.

[mcpickl]

The Cubs interviewed or were interested in half-a-dozen GMs in the Epstein mold. They may not be Epstein, but what do you think his marginal value is over another smart, young, sabermetrically inclined GM?

You've mentioned this multiple times in this thread, and in a vacuum you may be right. But it's not in a vacuum.

The Cubs have identified Theo as their guy. If they walk away in a fight over prospects, you may be right in that it won't be a big PR problem today. But come say May 15th, if Theo is still in Boston and Bush is running the Cubs til Theo is available in 2013, the questions heat up. Any time the Cubs are struggling it's why are we wasting a year without our new GM? We need to start turning this around now, we can't waste another year! It's just not a realistic option. Same would hold if they just moved to a second choice on their list as a permanent GM.

I see lots of people trying to claim one team or the other has no leverage. Both teams do. The Cubs have chosen their guy, they have to get him. It's one thing to move on to your second choice if your first choice says no. Not the case here.
The Red Sox have a lame duck GM who's told them he's leaving in a year regardless. They can get nothing for an unhappy GM after the season, or they can get a return for him now. and they've got his replacement ready to go in house. Both sides have too much to lose to not get this done.

One side says, hey he's worth some cash, the other says he's worth your top young players. As with most negotiations, they'll haggle for a while and settle in the middle. Theo will be in Chicago by Tuesday, and the Sox won't get the Cubs top kids', but maybe one that's like their 3rd or 4th best prospect and a lottery ticket they like lower in the top 20. That'd be my guess

[untilthebombs]

Just throwing this out there: we're all acting as if it's a sure thing that Epstein would sign with CHC next year if BOS holds him back.

Why?

[jdm2008]

Just throwing this out there: we're all acting as if it's a sure thing that Epstein would sign with CHC next year if BOS holds him back.

Why?

Thats a fair point and its possible that theo and henry work things out. But if theo wants out I think its likely(though you correct not certain) that he will want out after this year.

I think its just like normal employment when somebody lets their boss know they want out its unlikely(but happens sometimes) that that person comes back. It's a little bit different than the last time since he's actually joined another team.
Plus with the leaks the whole saga I would imagine has soured the relationship between ownership and theo.

Edited by jdm2008, 15 October 2011 - 07:54 PM.

[Cellar-Door]

I'm sure there is no chance that this doesn't get done, and equally no chance the Cubs give up only cash. I'm fairly sure this ends with a top 5 prospect not named Jackson and a second prospect somewhere between 7 and 20. The Cubs system is kind of a wasteland after Jackson, but I'm sure there is something there that interests the Sox. They'll haggle a few more days, but I can't see it not getting done, the Red Sox don't want a disgruntled Theo back, and the Cubs have been selling their fans on Theo the savior way too hard to back away.

[untilthebombs]

Thats a fair point and its possible that theo and henry work things out. But if theo wants out I think its likely(though you correct not certain) that he will want out after this year.

I think its just like normal employment when somebody lets their boss know they want out its unlikely(but happens sometimes) that that person comes back. It's a little bit different than the last time since he's actually joined another team.
Plus with the leaks the whole saga I would imagine has soured the relationship between ownership and theo.

Sure. I don't think he'll be back in Boston in 2013, but who's to say a more desirable position doesn't open up? There's clearly mutual interest, otherwise he wouldn't have reached an agreement with them, but a lot can change in a year. Maybe another organization becomes more desireable. The point really being that the only way the Cubs can guarantee that Epstein will be there next year, is to acquire him this year.

[ivanvamp]

I'm sure there is no chance that this doesn't get done, and equally no chance the Cubs give up only cash. I'm fairly sure this ends with a top 5 prospect not named Jackson and a second prospect somewhere between 7 and 20. The Cubs system is kind of a wasteland after Jackson, but I'm sure there is something there that interests the Sox. They'll haggle a few more days, but I can't see it not getting done, the Red Sox don't want a disgruntled Theo back, and the Cubs have been selling their fans on Theo the savior way too hard to back away.

The thing is this: a pair of top 10 prospects, if nothing else, gives Boston more ammo with which to make a deal later on should they choose. And that's nothing but a good thing.

[nighthob]

I really do hope that the Cubs screw this up over their attachment to a 4th OF. Nothing would make me laugh harder. Good luck trying to find an "up & coming executive" willing to gamble his future in baseball by taking a lame duck post as the Cubs temporary GM.

Boston's motivation is pretty straightforward, they need to give someone a mix of cash and prospects to take Lackey off their hands, so adding a few from Chicago helps them unload Horsefaced Loser. Of course, if the Cubs agreed to a Zambrano for Lackey swap I suspect that they'd find the Red Sox very reasonable.

[KyleTheCubsFan]

You've mentioned this multiple times in this thread, and in a vacuum you may be right. But it's not in a vacuum.

The Cubs have identified Theo as their guy. If they walk away in a fight over prospects, you may be right in that it won't be a big PR problem today. But come say May 15th, if Theo is still in Boston and Bush is running the Cubs til Theo is available in 2013, the questions heat up. Any time the Cubs are struggling it's why are we wasting a year without our new GM? We need to start turning this around now, we can't waste another year! It's just not a realistic option. Same would hold if they just moved to a second choice on their list as a permanent GM.

I see lots of people trying to claim one team or the other has no leverage. Both teams do. The Cubs have chosen their guy, they have to get him. It's one thing to move on to your second choice if your first choice says no. Not the case here.
The Red Sox have a lame duck GM who's told them he's leaving in a year regardless. They can get nothing for an unhappy GM after the season, or they can get a return for him now. and they've got his replacement ready to go in house. Both sides have too much to lose to not get this done.

One side says, hey he's worth some cash, the other says he's worth your top young players. As with most negotiations, they'll haggle for a while and settle in the middle. Theo will be in Chicago by Tuesday, and the Sox won't get the Cubs top kids', but maybe one that's like their 3rd or 4th best prospect and a lottery ticket they like lower in the top 20. That'd be my guess

That sounds all about right to me.

[Tyrone Biggums]

My guess is that this is just posturing from both sides. The Red Sox seem like a smart organization to me, and a few mid-grade prospects + not having to spend $6.5 million is not something they'd just throw away over pride. But I could be wrong.

Your team has never had experience dealing with Lucky, good luck with that.

[untilthebombs]

Sometime within the next 48 hours, Theo Epstein is expected to smile for the cameras.

With flashbulbs popping all around the stadium club, Epstein will pose for the "before" picture at the news conference where the Cubs will introduce him as their next head of baseball operations.

The "after" picture – whether Epstein's hair turns gray or the stress of the job starts to show on his youthful face – could be telling. This city demands nothing less than another World Series title from the 37-year-old executive.

What it will take for the Cubs and Red Sox to close this deal is gradually coming into focus. High-ranking officials from both sides remained underground over the weekend. On both days there were SUVs parked in the reserved spots for employees near the entrance to Wrigley Field's administrative offices.

As much as Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts and team president Crane Kenney would no doubt like to take a victory lap, there remains the matter of compensation, what it will take to pry Epstein from the final year of his contract.

It's also unclear if Epstein will be able to bring any Red Sox staffers along with him to Chicago. Sources continue to insist that Brett Jackson is untouchable and not part of the discussions.

Jackson generated 20 homers, 58 RBI, 21 stolen bases and a .379 on-base percentage in 115 games split between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa last season. The Cubs believe that their 2009 first-round pick out of Cal-Berkeley could make the big-league club out of spring training.

The Red Sox are believed to be focused on Trey McNutt, a 22-year-old right-hander who is arguably the organization's best pitching prospect. The 32nd-round pick seemingly came out of nowhere (Haleyville, Ala.) in 2010 and went 10-1 with a 2.48 ERA and 132 strikeouts in 116.1 innings.

McNutt dealt with blister problems in 2011 and didn't really build off that breakout season, finishing at 5-6 with a 4.55 ERA at Tennessee. But there's still enough upside where the Cubs could think he'd eventually be part of their 2012 staff – and refuse to give in to Boston's demands.

Either way, it will likely take two prospects. The Marlins set that baseline when they lured Ozzie Guillen from the South Side to South Beach.

A source familiar with the negotiations said that the Cubs are reluctant to give up anyone who'll be on their 40-man roster this winter. In that sense, Josh Vitters and Matt Szczur are viewed as unlikely to be included in the deal.

Vitters, the third overall pick in the 2007 draft, has been slower to develop. But he's still only 22 and team officials believe he's maturing.

Vitters is currently playing in the Arizona Fall League after hitting .283 with 14 homers and 81 RBI at Tennessee. He could probably use a full season on the Triple-A level in 2012. The Cubs will risk losing him if they don't sign him to the 40-man roster.

Szczur, a two-sport star at Villanova, has a unique contract that requires him to be moved to the 40-man roster this offseason. That was part of the recruiting pitch to give up his NFL ambitions and focus only on baseball. The 22-year-old outfielder finished last season at Class-A Daytona.

While the Red Sox examine the system, they will find intriguing players from the 2011 draft. Ricketts told his scouting department to take chances last summer and find more impact players. The chairman authorized close to $12 million in bonuses.

Those players cannot be traded until a year after the day they signed their contracts. In theory, a player could be labeled "to be announced" in the final Epstein settlement. But the Red Sox wouldn't want to take on the injury risk or stash him at a Cubs affiliate for almost the entire 2012 season.

A source predicted that the Red Sox will play this exactly like the agents at the signing deadline, waiting until the last minute to get the best possible deal for their clients.

There was no rush to hold a press conference on Sunday, with the Bears playing in primetime and the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys featured in another marquee game. Why compete with the NFL for attention?

A harder deadline will come before Wednesday, when the World Series begins and Major League Baseball forbids teams from making formal announcements. There are no games scheduled for Tuesday, and then commissioner Bud Selig imposes his news blackout.

While the tone of these negotiations made headlines, the big picture is that the Cubs and Red Sox have already found so much common ground. There is a motivated buyer and a determined seller. Everyone agrees that Epstein now belongs in Chicago.

http://www.csnchicag...406&feedID=4901

Edited by untilthebombs, 16 October 2011 - 08:40 PM.

[donchoi]

If this report is right about two prospects, I'd love to see the Sox get two pitchers in return: one high-upside guy, and one solid starting prospect at AA/AAA.

Maybe Trey McNutt/Nicholas Struck/Robert Whitenack and Casey Coleman/Chris Rusin?

[KyleTheCubsFan]

and one solid starting prospect at AA/AAA.

I wish the Cubs had such a thing to not give in this deal.

[Cellar-Door]

I wish the Cubs had such a thing to not give in this deal.

Whitenack would fit the bill if he hadn't had Tommy John this summer. Maybe a PTBNL with the list being Whitenack, Jay Jackson, Rusin , and Searle? See how Whitenack comes back and make a decision then.

Edited by Cellar-Door, 17 October 2011 - 12:07 AM.

[MedfieldFan]

If the Red Sox are getting McNutt, I would love to see them get a high upside player from Low-A or below as the second player. The guys being listed here as the second player (Vitters, Jackson, Coleman, etc) are not impact players - they have a much better chance at getting an impact player by taking a 2011 draftee as a PTBNL.

Edited by MedfieldFan, 17 October 2011 - 08:05 AM.

[untilthebombs]

FWIW, a person I'm familar with who broadcasted in Peoria last summer was very impressed with McNutt.

[ivanvamp]

Apparently, the Sox initially asked for Matt Garza, which is what I would have done too. No surprise the Cubs said no to that.

http://espn.go.com/c...bs-theo-epstein

[Tyrone Biggums]

Just read on Kaplan's twitter that the Sox demands have gotten insane more or less. As I predicted before, the Cubs will hire another GM, unless Lucky is removed from negotiations. Just take a prospect or two and just get this stuff done so both teams can start building the teams towards 2012 please.

[Tyrone Biggums]

Apparently, the Sox initially asked for Matt Garza, which is what I would have done too. No surprise the Cubs said no to that.

http://espn.go.com/c...bs-theo-epstein

I would have asked for him also, that is negotiation 101

[Cellar-Door]

Just read on Kaplan's twitter that the Sox demands have gotten insane more or less. As I predicted before, the Cubs will hire another GM, unless Lucky is removed from negotiations. Just take a prospect or two and just get this stuff done so both teams can start building the teams towards 2012 please.

The Cubs aren't walking away, they've been negotiating in the press the whole time, they'll give up 2 prospects probably including McNutt then call it a win because they didn't give up Garza or Jackson who were probably barely discussed after the first meeting. Just like the Red Sox leaked that the cubs were making a lowball cash only offer so a prospect package can be called a win.

[Tyrone Biggums]

The Cubs aren't walking away, they've been negotiating in the press the whole time, they'll give up 2 prospects probably including McNutt then call it a win because they didn't give up Garza or Jackson who were probably barely discussed after the first meeting. Just like the Red Sox leaked that the cubs were making a lowball cash only offer so a prospect package can be called a win.

We've seen LL go down this road with mixed results, my feeling is that this has a better chance of Theo staying in Boston. That's just my gut feeling though, I could be wrong.

[ivanvamp]

We've seen LL go down this road with mixed results, my feeling is that this has a better chance of Theo staying in Boston. That's just my gut feeling though, I could be wrong.

It's so hard to fathom the Cubs actually agreeing to a huge contract with Theo and then it ending up that Theo stays with the Red Sox. I gotta believe they get something done.

[Tyrone Biggums]

It's so hard to fathom the Cubs actually agreeing to a huge contract with Theo and then it ending up that Theo stays with the Red Sox. I gotta believe they get something done.

If they don't...hell its not like this would be the first time that Theo returns.

[went9]

McNutt photo link


McNutt would most likely start the season in AA Portland with hopes of a mid season call up to Pawtucket.

2012 Rotation:

RHP Anthony Ranaudo
RHP Stolmy Pimentel
RHP Trey McNutt
RHP Chris Balcom-Miller
LHP Chris Hernandez

Hope springs eternal.

[KyleTheCubsFan]

The Cubs aren't walking away, they've been negotiating in the press the whole time, they'll give up 2 prospects probably including McNutt then call it a win because they didn't give up Garza or Jackson who were probably barely discussed after the first meeting. Just like the Red Sox leaked that the cubs were making a lowball cash only offer so a prospect package can be called a win.

You are talking about the club that fired a very unpopular GM midseason and kept it under wraps for more than a month. Very few, if any, of these leaks are coming from the Cubs, imo.

[jdm2008]

You are talking about the club that fired a very unpopular GM midseason and kept it under wraps for more than a month. Very few, if any, of these leaks are coming from the Cubs, imo.

I disagree. There is very few reasons for the sox to leak and quite a lot for the sox too as to force THE sox to comply by burning theo's bridges for him.

[clutch]

McAdam says there's still "significant work" on the compensation deal:

The Red Sox kicked off the negotiations by asking for pitcher Matt Garza, a request the Cubs rejected out of hand. The Cubs, one baseball person said, continue to stress to the Red Sox that compensation issues for non-uniform personnel has historically been minimal. It's the view of the Red Sox that, given the magnitude of the deal being given to Epstein and owner Tom Ricketts's desire to have Epstein run his organization's baseball operations department, that this deal defies precedent.

The Sox have an interest in pitching prospect Trey McNutt, though his inclusion in a compensation package is far from guaranteed at this point.

It's likely that the Red Sox will also receive a second, lesser prospect.

One issue that is not a sticking point, contrary to multiple reports, is the matter of which current Red Sox employees would join Epstein in Chicago. A mutual understanding is in place that Epstein will not "raid" the Red Sox baseball operations department. http://bit.ly/oHTggq

- Garza was a pipe dream but it would have been nice. I think McNutt and another prospect would be fair, especially if the last part of this report is true and Theo won't raid Sox baseball operations.

[KyleTheCubsFan]

I disagree. There is very few reasons for the sox to leak and quite a lot for the sox too as to force THE sox to comply by burning theo's bridges for him.

The entire argument for Red Sox leverage is based on the idea that the leaks have forced the Cubs to go all-in on Epstein, that they can't back out now that it's been so public.

[Cellar-Door]

The entire argument for Red Sox leverage is based on the idea that the leaks have forced the Cubs to go all-in on Epstein, that they can't back out now that it's been so public.

each side leaks to their friendlies, hence why Kaplan has the quotes about the Red Sox asking too much, that there is no time dealine, and contentious meetings, and the Boston writers have businesslike meetings, want it done by World Series and the cubs not wanting to give up enough. Only Chicago story I saw that varied was the tribune one where Sullivan said the cubs were calling the Red Sox demands unreasonable, and another source within the league called that nonsense.
http://www.chicagotr...0,2099385.story

Edited by Cellar-Door, 17 October 2011 - 10:44 PM.

[walkoffblast]

The entire argument for Red Sox leverage is based on the idea that the leaks have forced the Cubs to go all-in on Epstein, that they can't back out now that it's been so public.

Not exactly. The Sox have zero motivation to budge on anything Theo related as long as this is secret. Based on his history they may very well have been able to retain him (their preference) with some time. The Cubs likely took this public to force the Red Sox hand and attempt to prevent this development and decrease the Sox leverage in this regard. Even if it did hurt the Cubs position this tactic was preferable because they were sitting ducks in the other scenario and at least here there is a chance to try and get the Sox to blink. The Sox aren't going to blink. The Cubs wanted Theo bad enough to go this route but they seem unwilling to admit they are willing to suffer the consequences in spite of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

Edited by walkoffblast, 17 October 2011 - 10:49 PM.

[OnWisc]

Not exactly. The Sox have zero motivation to budge on anything Theo related as long as this is secret. Based on his history they may very well have been able to retain him (their preference) with some time. The Cubs likely took this public to force the Red Sox hand and attempt to prevent this development and decrease the Sox leverage in this regard. Even if it did hurt the Cubs position this tactic was preferable because they were sitting ducks in the other scenario and at least here there is a chance to try and get the Sox to blink. The Sox aren't going to blink. The Cubs wanted Theo bad enough to go this route but they seem unwilling to admit they are willing to suffer the consequences in spite of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

Even with it public, I think the motivation to budge on the Sox side is negligible. And I agree that they aren't going to blink.

I believe the Cubs current stance is purely posturing for negotiation purposes. Much like the Sox original request for Garza. While I think Ricketts would have preferred to announce before the WS, I think he's fine waiting until after if he thinks it will ultimately cost him a lesser piece.

However, IF (and I don't yet believe this is the case) the Cubs are not posturing, and really feel that:

1) They should not have to give up anyone projected to be on the 40-man
2) Absorbing the cost of Theo's final year should compensation enough for taking Theo
3) Historical comparables for moving non-uniform personnel are relevant in this case

Then this will drag out until the last absolute minute. I still think it will get done, because if it comes down to it, I think Ricketts will pull the trigger even if he feels it's grossly unfair. And I think that until the Sox get the value they want, there's no reason it wouldn't go down to the last minute, because the worst-case scenario for the Sox simply is not that bad. It may not be an ideal situation, but paying Theo and finding a role for him for another year simply is not any sort of doomsday scenario that the Sox need to avoid at all costs.

Of course I don't think the Cubs truly believe the above points. I think they make those arguments as negotiating points to draw out the process in the hopes that public pressure on the Sox to stop being obstructive and just let it go, plus perhaps pressure from Selig, would force the Sox to throw up their hands and essentially take whatever the Cubs would offer. It's basically Ricketts telling the Sox to stop being d&^#s.

However, I feel that public opinion is with the Sox on this one. Having reportedly moved from Garza to Jackson to McNutt, while the Cubs haven't budged off their stance of essentially "nothing of value", hasn't helped them. Listening to sports radio out here this am, with once exception, the clamor was for the Cubs to get this done as long as nobody named Castro was involved.

Bottom line is I think the Cubs know the value Theo offers, and also know that the Red Sox are under no obligation to just let him go. I think the moves from Ricketts so far have been in the hopes of creating pressure from the public and the rest of MLB so that the Sox DO feel obligated to move Theo. I think it's becoming increasingly evident that this isn't working out, as public perception even here in Chicago seems to be moving against the Cubs, and as far as we know Selig hasn't inserted himself. And, of course, he's trying this against Larry. So even if papers nationwide were clamoring for the Sox to just let things go, it may not have any impact anyway.

Ricketts hasn't lost anything by playing his hand this way. Theo's still his if he wants him. And now that I think it's becoming clear the Sox are no closer to blinking than they were two weeks ago, he'll be ready to ante up with the appropriate prospects.

*Or, of course, he really believes the Cubs stance on not giving up any value, won't listen to anyone who tells him otherwise, and lets this thing fall apart. I don't believe that, but it would make for some VERY fun times here on the North Side.

[KyleTheCubsFan]

Not exactly. The Sox have zero motivation to budge on anything Theo related as long as this is secret. Based on his history they may very well have been able to retain him (their preference) with some time. The Cubs likely took this public to force the Red Sox hand and attempt to prevent this development and decrease the Sox leverage in this regard. Even if it did hurt the Cubs position this tactic was preferable because they were sitting ducks in the other scenario and at least here there is a chance to try and get the Sox to blink. The Sox aren't going to blink. The Cubs wanted Theo bad enough to go this route but they seem unwilling to admit they are willing to suffer the consequences in spite of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

They went into this with the assumption that the Red Sox would comply with MLB protocol and not stand in the way of an executive getting a better title, a higher spot on an organizational chart and more money (in layman's terms, a promotion).

Now that they find out that's not the case, then the only thing they can do is wait and see if the Red Sox are really that foolish or if they are bluffing. If they are, and you have to walk away to your next choice, so be it. The difference between Epstein and a young, hungry, saber-savvy GM is not that significant (as evidenced by Red Sox fans who have no probem with Cherington taking over).

[OnWisc]

They went into this with the assumption that the Red Sox would comply with MLB protocol and not stand in the way of an executive getting a better title, a higher spot on an organizational chart and more money (in layman's terms, a promotion).

Now that they find out that's not the case, then the only thing they can do is wait and see if the Red Sox are really that foolish or if they are bluffing. If they are, and you have to walk away to your next choice, so be it. The difference between Epstein and a young, hungry, saber-savvy GM is not that significant (as evidenced by Red Sox fans who have no probem with Cherington taking over).

This would be a token promotion at best. It's not like an assistant getting the GM position. Or Kenney leaving and Theo running the entire operation. Classifying what the Cubs are offering Theo as a true promotion and enough to compel teams to release their GMs from a contract anytime another organization offered the same would be ridiculous. You'd have new titles or marginal responsibilities invented every time someone wanted to make a run at someone else's GM.

The Sox have a history of allowing executives to depart for actual promotions. That is not the case here.

[KyleTheCubsFan]

More money, higher on the organizational chart, better title.

Calling it anything but a promotion is pedantry.

[AardsmaToZupcic]

So a thought occurred to me while reading this thread.

If the Cubs really wanted leverage on the Sox for Theo wouldn't it be smart to pull their offer to Theo now and offer the GM job to Cherrington?
Since Theo is still technically the GM the Sox wouldn't break protocol and stand in the way of a promotion (or would they?) for Ben.
The Sox wouldn't want a lame duck GM so they might back down from their Theo counter offers in order to keep Cherrington?

when I type it out it sounds muddled in my head it makes more sense...

[KyleTheCubsFan]

The Cubs can't offer anything to Cherington without permission.

While in ordinary circumstances that permission would be mostly automatic, you imagine how well such a request would go right about now.

[nateroth]

As a Cubs fan, I would be upset if the Cubs gave up any prospect on their top-10 list, or anyone under the age of 24. Cash and quadruple-A prospects only.

Theo will be in Chicago eventually. The Red Sox have told Theo they do not want him, by granting the Cubs permission to talk and by already promoting Theo's successor. Theo has told the Red Sox he wants out by accepting the Cubs offer. If Lucchino tries to fleece the Cubs, Ricketts should walk away and let them try to figure out how the Lucchino / Theo / Cherington dynamic will work now. Who has final say on the new manager? Who is signing off on trades? What is the long-term strategy? There is none.

The Cubs organization is a mess, the Cubs fans know that. But at least Ricketts is taking a long-term view. All of his resources have been devoted to building up the organization. If he has to wait a year, fine. But there is no incentive to gut the system in this case, at least from my perspective.

[Minneapolis Millers]

Cubsfan, I'm not really seeing the "promotion" you're describing. With Kenney still there as president (the Lucchino role), Theo's basic job would be the same. He'd probably have more autonomy over baseball ops, but the role and place in the hierarchy is similar. As for the addtional money, that's not what people call a promotion, that's simply called a raise. I agree with others who characterize this as far closer to a lateral move than a promotion (as you see when an assistant GM moves to GM). So I can certainly see why the Sox are looking for compensation. Frankly, it's why the Cubs themselves are willing to pay some compensation. They're not opposing the notion that the Sox are entitled to something, precisely because they know this is more of a lateral move than a promotion. They just don't want to pay too much, for obvious reasons.

As for the question of leverage, I also agree that the Sox hold most of it. If what the Cubs are offering is essentially de minimis (say, 2 B- prospects who wouldn't sniff the Sox's top 10 list) then Henry & Co might as well keep Theo. Given his contract, he can't easily force his way out. If the Sox elevated Cherington to the de facto GM post, Theo could try to get a court to find the Sox in breach, as some on the main board have suggested, but that would likely take time - much of the offseason - to accomplish, which would be too late for the Cubs.

And for all the Cubs know, the Sox could decide that they really do want to keep Theo, could offer him a lucrative extension and some additional clout, and change his mind. Unlikely, but not impossible, and a definite part of the Cubs' risk calculation in all of this. Remember, Beane to the Sox was a done deal, until it wasn't.

As for what the compensation should be, that's a tough call, but the Cubs' attempt to distniguish this case from what "uniformed personnel" (i.e. managers) have fetched is disingenuous if not stupid. Piniella brought back All-Star Randy Winn. That might have been a dumb move by Tampa but it set a precendent that can't simply, rationally be ignored. In that context, asking for Garza was a reasonable opening proposal. In the end, like otehrs have suggested, I think the Sox accept 2 mLers, one higher guy like McNutt and one lottery ticket type. That's closer to what Guillen just fetched. If they get less, it'll be because the Sox brass blinked and decided that they wanted to move on, not because they were convinced that Theo was worth less than Ozzie freakin' Guillen.

[Minneapolis Millers]

... But there is no incentive to gut the system in this case, at least from my perspective.

Ask yourself this: 5 years from now, who will likely have had a bigger impact on the team and provided more value, Matt Garza or Theo Epstein? If you think the answer will be Garza, then your position makes sense. If you think the answer is Epstein, then it doesn't. You can't rationally take the long view for half of the equation and the short view for the other half.

[PrestonBroadus Lives]

More money, higher on the organizational chart, better title.

Calling it anything but a promotion is pedantry.

No, and I believe that you could make a more convincing case that the opposite is true. Yes Theo's job title is changing and he's getting more money, but considering that his function will remain pretty much the same, this isn't really much of a promotion.

Regardless of that, you seem to be unwilling to budge off the idea that the Red Sox are somehow breaking protocol here. That's just not true. The Red Sox have allowed an employee under contract to hold talks with another team and negotiate a contract with them. The only way they could break protocol going forward is by not negotiation the compensation in good faith. Considering past compensation packages (Winn for Pinella, Youkilis for Beane, the Martinez' for Guillen), it hardly seems the Sox are being unreasonable in the negotiations if the reports of McNutt being the coveted prospect are true. I'm sorry the Cubs have such a bad farm system and that McNutt is one of their better prospects (probably their #1 pitching prospect), but he would only rank in the 6-10 range in the Boston system. Frankly, I'd be a little disappointed if the package wasn't McNutt plus.

The truth is that we really have no idea what's going on behind closed doors. Maybe the Cubs thought they could get Theo with little to no compensation. Maybe the Sox are being unreasonable with their demands. There have been sourced reports blaming both parties for the hold up on this deal but we have little actual evidence that either side is at fault. Sure, it's fun to speculate about what's going on and who will eventually be moved as part of this deal. But your continued insistence that the Red Sox front office is breaking protocol is unsupported by any facts we currently have and is making you sound like a whiny Cubs fan that wants to have his cake and eat it too.

[KyleTheCubsFan]

Cubsfan, I'm not really seeing the "promotion" you're describing. With Kenney still there as president (the Lucchino role), Theo's basic job would be the same. He'd probably have more autonomy over baseball ops, but the role and place in the hierarchy is similar. As for the addtional money, that's not what people call a promotion, that's simply called a raise. I agree with others who characterize this as far closer to a lateral move than a promotion (as you see when an assistant GM moves to GM). So I can certainly see why the Sox are looking for compensation. Frankly, it's why the Cubs themselves are willing to pay some compensation. They're not opposing the notion that the Sox are entitled to something, precisely because they know this is more of a lateral move than a promotion. They just don't want to pay too much, for obvious reasons.

So you agree that he'd have more autonomy (well, you said probably). We know he's getting a raise. His place on the hierarchy will be reporting directly to the owner, which he does not now. In what universe is that not a promotion?

The Cubs offered some compensation to short-circuit exactly this sort of pedantry, and the Sox ownership seized on it to try to and extract something absurd. Or, given the hatchet job that I saw done to Francona, I'm beginning to wonder if this just isn't an attempt to get petty revenge on someone leaving town.

As for the question of leverage, I also agree that the Sox hold most of it. If what the Cubs are offering is essentially de minimis (say, 2 B- prospects who wouldn't sniff the Sox's top 10 list) then Henry & Co might as well keep Theo. Given his contract, he can't easily force his way out. If the Sox elevated Cherington to the de facto GM post, Theo could try to get a court to find the Sox in breach, as some on the main board have suggested, but that would likely take time - much of the offseason - to accomplish, which would be too late for the Cubs.

And for all the Cubs know, the Sox could decide that they really do want to keep Theo, could offer him a lucrative extension and some additional clout, and change his mind. Unlikely, but not impossible, and a definite part of the Cubs' risk calculation in all of this. Remember, Beane to the Sox was a done deal, until it wasn't.

Okay, do it. Put aside for a moment that Epstein may just wait out the year and come to the Cubs strings-free and $6.5 million have come out of the Red Sox pocket that they could use for other things.

If the Red Sox really want to keep Epstein and/or hold him hostage for a year, then the Cubs can and will move on to the next choice. When this process began, I personally had Epstein fourth or fifth on my list of about half-a-dozen guys in an "awesome" pile that included several guys at the sub-GM levels. And since Ricketts has done a lot more due diligence than I have on GM candidates, he can probably find a few more. Before Theo Epstein was Theo Epstein, Curse Breaker, he was a young, hungry, saber-savvy GM. The Red Sox are about to hand their organization over to a yougn, hungry, saber-savvy GM and don't expect to miss a beat without Epstein. The Cubs can and should do the same.

The value of a young, effective MLB player (even average or merely sub-average but above replacement level) over the life of their team-controlled years can easily be in the dozens of millions of dollars. A near-ready prospect who has a high chance to be one of those guys is worth a lot more to the Cubs than the marginal value between Epstein and one of those guys, especially with Epstein costing $3 million a year (plus the conclusion bonus to the Red Sox).

If the Red Sox genuinely believe that they can't let Epstein go without getting a significant, near-ready prospect, then there's nothing to talk about. Enjoy your Epstein for the next year, or more, because he makes no sense for the Cubs to give up such a thing for a fairly fungible executive.

[KyleTheCubsFan]

No, and I believe that you could make a more convincing case that the opposite is true. Yes Theo's job title is changing and he's getting more money, but considering that his function will remain pretty much the same, this isn't really much of a promotion.

"Not much of a promotion" is still a promotion.

Regardless of that, you seem to be unwilling to budge off the idea that the Red Sox are somehow breaking protocol here. That's just not true. The Red Sox have allowed an employee under contract to hold talks with another team and negotiate a contract with them. The only way they could break protocol going forward is by not negotiation the compensation in good faith. Considering past compensation packages (Winn for Pinella, Youkilis for Beane, the Martinez' for Guillen), it hardly seems the Sox are being unreasonable in the negotiations if the reports of McNutt being the coveted prospect are true. I'm sorry the Cubs have such a bad farm system and that McNutt is one of their better prospects (probably their #1 pitching prospect), but he would only rank in the 6-10 range in the Boston system. Frankly, I'd be a little disappointed if the package wasn't McNutt plus.

McNutt was the No. 48 prospect in all of baseball on BA's list before the season. He had some problems with non long-term injuries (blisters and pulled muscles). He'll certainly go down the list. But he's a lot better than you are giving him credit for here (granted, I was also undervaluing him a few pages ago. I had no idea until he became the focal point in all this that he was as close to the majors as he is.)

Piniella for Winn was a true lateral move. Youkilis for Beane is a myth. The Martinez's for Guillen was to make tampering charges go away (but if the Red Sox would take the equivalent of two non-top-100 prospects who had bad 2011s, then I'd be glad to say that's reasonable to make this go away).

The truth is that we really have no idea what's going on behind closed doors. Maybe the Cubs thought they could get Theo with little to no compensation. Maybe the Sox are being unreasonable with their demands. There have been sourced reports blaming both parties for the hold up on this deal but we have little actual evidence that either side is at fault. Sure, it's fun to speculate about what's going on and who will eventually be moved as part of this deal. But your continued insistence that the Red Sox front office is breaking protocol is unsupported by any facts we currently have and is making you sound like a whiny Cubs fan that wants to have his cake and eat it too.

Funny, I think the insistence by Red Sox fans that Cherington will be just fine, but that the Cubs can't possibly find comparable value to Epstein on the unattached market, to be whiny fandom that wants to have their cake and eat it too. Perspective changes opinions, it's inevitable.

Edited by KyleTheCubsFan, 18 October 2011 - 04:06 PM.

[Cellar-Door]

"Not much of a promotion" is still a promotion.



McNutt was the No. 48 prospect in all of baseball on BA's list before the season. He had some problems with non long-term injuries (blisters and pulled muscles). He'll certainly go down the list. But he's a lot better than you are giving him credit for here (granted, I was also undervaluing him a few pages ago. I had no idea until he became the focal point in all this that he was as close to the majors as he is.)

Piniella for Winn was a true lateral move. Youkilis for Beane is a myth. The Martinez's for Guillen was to make tampering charges go away (but if the Red Sox would take the equivalent of two non-top-100 prospects who had bad 2011s, then I'd be glad to say that's reasonable to make this go away).



Funny, I think the insistence by Red Sox fans that Cherington will be just fine, but that the Cubs can't possibly find comparable value to Epstein on the unattached market, to be whiny fandom that wants to have their cake and eat it too. Perspective changes opinions, it's inevitable.

You are entirely wrong, this is essentially a lateral move, even if it is something that could be considered a promotion there is no obligation to let him go. There is a reason there isn't anyone talking about this as a real promotion within baseball, because it isn't. The only people in the league who think the Red Sox are being unreasonable are the Cubs.
The indications seem to be on all fronts that the Red Sox should be compensated. If that is generally agreed then all that is left is assigning value. The Red Sox look at precedent and see the Ozzie deal (two top 10 prospects from a similarly weak system) Winn (an All-star) and Sanguillen 3 time all-star catcher).

Edited by Cellar-Door, 18 October 2011 - 04:17 PM.

[KyleTheCubsFan]

You are entirely wrong, this is essentially a lateral move, even if it is something that could be considered a promotion there is no obligation to let him go. There is a reason there isn't anyone talking about this as a real promotion within baseball, because it isn't. The only people in the league who think the Red Sox are being unreasonable are the Cubs.
The indications seem to be on all fronts that the Red Sox should be compensated. If that is generally agreed then all that is left is assigning value. The Red Sox look at precedent and see the Ozzie deal (two top 10 prospects from a similarly weak system) Winn (an All-star) and Sanguillen 3 time all-star catcher).

Okay, let's again stipulate that the Red Sox should be compensated and that this is a lateral move.

Let's throw aside all the silly issues of leverage and who has to do what. Let's just look at marginal cost and marginal value.

Theo Epstein is the candidate at hand. There are other candidates who could be had for less. They are young, saber-savvy, ambitious, and come with no strings attached. We'll personify them as Candidate B. We'll use dollars as a handy currency for cost and value (we could just as easily use wins or something).

The Cubs are already willing to pay Epstein $18.5 million over five years (including assuming the conclusion bonus with Boston). Candidate B would likely cost, at most, $5 million for five years.

So the marginal cost of Theo Epstein is now $13.5 million to the Cubs.

What is the marginal value of a prospect like McNutt? He's very close to MLB ready, maybe even by the end of 2012. At this point, I'd say a 50% chance of becoming an MLB contributor is reasonable and probably even pessimistic (how much of a contributor is still to be seen, of course).

For the first three years of his career, the Cubs will be able to pay McNutt less than $1.5 million in total. Let's say he averages even 1.5 WAR during those three seasons (a below-average pitcher). 4.5 WAR will generally cost you around $20 million on the open market. So his marginal value to the Cubs at that point is $18.5 million. For the sake of simplicity, let's just take that number and assume that the chances he flames out and becomes an above-average pitcher roughly cancel out. We won't even consider his arbitration years, either. All in all, I'd say we are undervaluing him, but that's fine.

So by giving up McNutt, you are now asking the Cubs to value Epstein at $31.5 million over Candidate B.

Do you consider that a reasonable value? It's not even close. If Epstein's contract were up this year, would you want to see the Red Sox pay $31.5 million to him over 5 years to keep him instead of settling for Cherington?

If the cost is McNutt or more, then Epstein simply no longer makes sense for the Cubs and they'll have to move on.

Edited by KyleTheCubsFan, 18 October 2011 - 04:30 PM.