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Iglesias' Future / Ceiling


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#151 Plympton91


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Posted 06 November 2011 - 06:42 PM

So, you agree with me then? The only thing I've tried to argue is that it's too early to write him off from becoming a league average hitter. If his 50-some games in Portland as a 20yo with a .360 BABIP aren't enough to convince he can hit at that level, certainly 100 games at Pawtucket the next year aren't convincing of the opposite, are they? Just like neither the last two weeks of the season you cite, nor the .950 OPS from his stop in Lowell, provide enough information to come to a definitive conclusion on him, since he's had such varying degrees of success in such small samples.


I agree with you to an extent. Enough scouting reports indicate that he has the tools necessary to become a decent hitter, and the Red Sox, whom I trust, gave him a ridiculous-sized bonus, so yes, way too early to write him off. That said, I think you have to take the whole body of his work in the minor leagues as a big red flag that perhaps the scouts saying that he'd never hit enough, and the teams that the Red Sox wildly outbid for his services, had the better assessment of his offensive talent. Further, much of the anti-Iglesias sentiment is primarily an overstated reaction to the many people who were inking him in as the starting shortstop in 2012 based on a couple pretty defensive plays they saw in Ft. Myers last spring.

Jose Iglesias should be the starting shortstop for the Pawtucket Red Sox in 2012, sure. But, he should not be given an everyday role on the major league team until he posts at least a .340 OBP that includes at least 60 points from unintentional walks and .400 SLG over at least half a season down there.

Edited by Plympton91, 06 November 2011 - 06:42 PM.


#152 radsoxfan

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Posted 06 November 2011 - 07:53 PM

Jose Iglesias should be the starting shortstop for the Pawtucket Red Sox in 2012, sure. But, he should not be given an everyday role on the major league team until he posts at least a .340 OBP that includes at least 60 points from unintentional walks and .400 SLG over at least half a season down there.


Those are pretty arbitrary (and silly) endpoints. If the Red Sox have to wait for Iglesias to put up a .400 SLG in AAA for half a season, they should probably just trade him now.

#153 Super Nomario

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Posted 06 November 2011 - 08:16 PM

So, you agree with me then? The only thing I've tried to argue is that it's too early to write him off from becoming a league average hitter.

League-average, or league-average for a SS? I think even by the rosiest assessment he's not going to have league-average power, or close. He's very unlikely to have a league-average walk rate. At that point, you need him to have a .290-.300 BA to be a league-average hitter. Maybe even higher than that.

#154 JakeRae

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Posted 12 November 2011 - 07:59 PM

Those are pretty arbitrary (and silly) endpoints. If the Red Sox have to wait for Iglesias to put up a .400 SLG in AAA for half a season, they should probably just trade him now.

I'd argue that the .060 ISO BB is an even more ridiculous standard and one that Iglesias might never achieve even if he puts together a HOF career.


.300/.340/.400 would be a phenomenal season for Iglesias and would position him as the Red Sox starting SS in 2013.

#155 Plympton91


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Posted 14 November 2011 - 09:07 PM

I'd argue that the .060 ISO BB is an even more ridiculous standard and one that Iglesias might never achieve even if he puts together a HOF career.

.300/.340/.400 would be a phenomenal season for Iglesias and would position him as the Red Sox starting SS in 2013.


That means you're willing to live with a shortstop that puts up a less than 700 OPS and with significantly less than half of it coming from OBP. Playing in the AL East, you might as well announce that you're going to let your pitchers hit. Then again, maybe the team is getting used to third place, and figures that having a flashy shortstop will sell some tickets as they look up at the rest of the division.

#156 Brianish

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Posted 14 November 2011 - 09:32 PM

A - .297 .355 .388 .743

B - .237 .294 .349 .643

Let's play guess who these are.

A is Derek Jeter from this season, when the Yankees won 97 games and the division.

B is Julio Lugo from 2007, when the Sox won 96 games and the division and I think something else, but I forget.

In both cases they put up crappier defense than is reasonable to expect from Iglesias. (And if he gets in the habit of that kind of defense, he probably never makes the majors anyway).

I get that you're down on the guy, but let's not get silly here ok? If he puts up 340/400/740 and the kind of defense that's expected from him, he's more than adequate, AL East or not.

#157 JakeRae

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Posted 14 November 2011 - 11:06 PM

That means you're willing to live with a shortstop that puts up a less than 700 OPS and with significantly less than half of it coming from OBP. Playing in the AL East, you might as well announce that you're going to let your pitchers hit. Then again, maybe the team is getting used to third place, and figures that having a flashy shortstop will sell some tickets as they look up at the rest of the division.

From a 23 year old who plays generational defense and will be making the league minimum, yes. .270/.310/.360 would be an acceptable first season for Iglesias. I'd be ecstatic if you told me he would hit like that for the sox in 2013.

The above line assumes that league offensive levels stay constant.

#158 terrynever

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 01:11 PM

Pawtucket Times/Woonsocket Call baseball writer Brendan McGair suggests Iglesias could crack into Boston's lineup if he impresses manager Bobby Valentine in spring training. Valentine faced a similar situation with Rey Ordonez back in the Mets in the late 1990s.

http://www.woonsocke...l.com/node/4483

#159 TomRicardo


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Posted 30 January 2012 - 01:37 PM

Unless Iglesias found some sort of wizard that could magically make you a major league hitter, I doubt this happening.

#160 Buzzkill Pauley

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 01:53 PM

Pawtucket Times/Woonsocket Call baseball writer Brendan McGair suggests Iglesias could crack into Boston's lineup if he impresses manager Bobby Valentine in spring training. Valentine faced a similar situation with Rey Ordonez back in the Mets in the late 1990s.


And I would hope he learned from that situation -- Ordonez hit at a 51 OPS+ clip for his first three years in MLB. That's wasn't good enough for the NL East then, or for the AL East now.

#161 Plympton91


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Posted 30 January 2012 - 02:53 PM

From a 23 year old who plays generational defense and will be making the league minimum, yes. .270/.310/.360 would be an acceptable first season for Iglesias. I'd be ecstatic if you told me he would hit like that for the sox in 2013.

The above line assumes that league offensive levels stay constant.


People told me that Jackie Gutierrez was a defensive wizard too. I'll believe he's great when a combination of observation against major league competition plus 3 years of UZR (or whatever much less flawed and rudimentary system eventually replaces it) tells me he's that great. I agree that if he's a generational level defensive talent and puts up a line of .270 / .310 / .360 he'd be a tremendous assets. Sadly, however, his full season numbers in Pawtucket suggest a line of .170 / .190 / .230 is more likely.

I am increasingly open to the possibility that he was putting something together during the final weeks of last season, however, and he could have been drinking shakes with David Ortiz all winter, so we'll see what we get. If he's competent in Pawtucket for a couple months and Aviles isn't playing like its 2008, then maybe you fanboys will get what you want.

#162 JakeRae

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 03:22 PM

People told me that Jackie Gutierrez was a defensive wizard too. I'll believe he's great when a combination of observation against major league competition plus 3 years of UZR (or whatever much less flawed and rudimentary system eventually replaces it) tells me he's that great. I agree that if he's a generational level defensive talent and puts up a line of .270 / .310 / .360 he'd be a tremendous assets. Sadly, however, his full season numbers in Pawtucket suggest a line of .170 / .190 / .230 is more likely.

I am increasingly open to the possibility that he was putting something together during the final weeks of last season, however, and he could have been drinking shakes with David Ortiz all winter, so we'll see what we get. If he's competent in Pawtucket for a couple months and Aviles isn't playing like its 2008, then maybe you fanboys will get what you want.

You are changing your tune. Here's the post you wrote originally that I was responding to:

That means you're willing to live with a shortstop that puts up a less than 700 OPS and with significantly less than half of it coming from OBP. Playing in the AL East, you might as well announce that you're going to let your pitchers hit. Then again, maybe the team is getting used to third place, and figures that having a flashy shortstop will sell some tickets as they look up at the rest of the division.

I was not trying to argue that Iglesias will post the line I mentioned. My point was that this original post is unrealistic and that Iglesias can be very valuable with a sub .700 OPS. You seem to agree with that now, which calls into question why you made the above comments in the first place.

As for the idea of Iglesias starting the season in Boston, that seems crazy. He has done nothing to show he is ready offensively. Even if he shows up crushing the ball in Spring Training, I think he'd be best served starting the season in Pawtuckett. If he makes a true offensively leap forward this offseason, he can get called up in June, preserving a year of club control and joining the big club after he has developed some offensive confidence in the minors. I highly doubt that happens as I think he likely needs at least one more full season in AAA and possibly more to develop his offensive skills sufficiently to be ready for MLB. I don't want to see Iglesias become the next WMP because the organization rushes him to the majors prematurely (albeit for very different reasons). The last thing he needs is to start the season in Boston, hit sub-Mendoza, and get booed back into AAA.

#163 terrynever

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 03:38 PM

Can a kid win a big league job in spring training anymore? Seems almost impossible for Red Sox and Yankee prospects to do it. Lineups are set in stone for these teams and the only competition is for bench and deep bullpen jobs. A little competition never used to hurt anyone. I think Valentine understands this concept.

#164 Super Nomario

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 04:21 PM

Can a kid win a big league job in spring training anymore? Seems almost impossible for Red Sox and Yankee prospects to do it. Lineups are set in stone for these teams and the only competition is for bench and deep bullpen jobs. A little competition never used to hurt anyone. I think Valentine understands this concept.

You don't want him to prove anything in the minors first?

#165 OttoC


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Posted 30 January 2012 - 04:22 PM

Iglesias quiz: In what league/season in this country did he set his season-high home run total?

Spoiler


#166 soxfan121


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Posted 30 January 2012 - 04:40 PM

Can a kid win a big league job in spring training anymore? Seems almost impossible for Red Sox and Yankee prospects to do it. Lineups are set in stone for these teams and the only competition is for bench and deep bullpen jobs. A little competition never used to hurt anyone. I think Valentine understands this concept.


Oh, this is happening and Tom Ricardo is gonna be mad as hell about it. But after a tumultuous and bleak off-season, The Red Sox Spring Training Spectacular is going to feature lots and lots of the new manager gushing about the talent and how good the team is and how they are ready to win now. And then, after Iglesias has two hits in a game - even if it's a simulated game on the minor league back field, the RAVING will begin. If the kid hits at all in ST, he's gonna "win the job". And people can keep quoting the stats as if Bobby or Ben gives a shit. This is a STORY. A feel-good, Pedroia-struggled-too, look-at-him-play-D! story that the team can use to enthrall the less discerning fans.

I think Iglesias "wins the job" and keeps it unless he's historically bad. I think they are prepared for him to grow on the job because they think the defense is that good. My sincere hope is that the kid plays great D because if he doesn't he'll get buried here, quickly. If he plays great D and hits like shit...well, 1000 page threads have happened before. Anuerysms all around!

#167 someoneanywhere

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 04:53 PM

I think Iglesias "wins the job" and keeps it unless he's historically bad. I think they are prepared for him to grow on the job because they think the defense is that good. My sincere hope is that the kid plays great D because if he doesn't he'll get buried here, quickly. If he plays great D and hits like shit...well, 1000 page threads have happened before. Anuerysms all around!

.

No chance. His defense is that good. But right now the bat is that bad. They will not rush him, or any prospect, into on-the-job-training. If they end up with a Aviles-Punto platoon to start the year, the thinking will be to give Iglesias half a year in the minors to see if he can contribut in June and July. And if the bat doesn't come around, and if the platoon ain't working, and if they are contending, Ben will swing a move. You don't patch up what could be a mistake (an Aviles-Punto platoon) by making another mistake, and perhaps a bigger one.

They already know he can field the spot. They don't know if he can hit the spot, and spring training, against Quad As and shaping-up ML arms, is not going to tell them enough about his stroke.

#168 soxfan121


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Posted 30 January 2012 - 04:59 PM

I think you're underestimating the media, Bobby V and the story and overvaluing development, the proper approach and patience. In an ideal world. I prefer your plan - I just don't think it's the most likely scenario.

#169 Plympton91


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Posted 30 January 2012 - 05:11 PM

The 2009-AFL-start showed some promise and he began the 2010 season hitting very well for the Lowell Spinners in the NYP; however, after 40 AB, he was promoted to Double-A. From Portland, on, he has hit .257 with 31 walks and slugged .301. I think the Red Sox have pushed him too fast. He may learn to hit but it will probably take a while and I see him mostly as a singles hitter.


Actually that NYP league stint was a mid-season rehab assignment from a broken something in his wrist/hand. He also got hurt last year. I hadn't thought of this before, but his last season and a half of futility in the power department might be the result of that wrist/hand injury lingering, as can be the case, through multiple seasons.

You are changing your tune. Here's the post you wrote originally that I was responding to:

I was not trying to argue that Iglesias will post the line I mentioned. My point was that this original post is unrealistic and that Iglesias can be very valuable with a sub .700 OPS. You seem to agree with that now, which calls into question why you made the above comments in the first place.


The first comments were not predicated on him being all-everything on defense. If he's really the reincarnation of a 28 year old Ozzie Smith, then yeah, as long as he hits a little bit that's o.k. However, my guess is that Red Sox fans, fairly used to statues with erratic arms playing shortstop and having seen him primarily against inferior competition, are overrating Iglesias's defense by quite a bit. I mean, given the unanimity of scouts on the issue, I'm sure he's solidly above average, but I'm not prepared to hand him a starting job on the basis of him needing to be Ozzie Smith on defense to have positive value.

That said, I'm starting to look for silver linings in his offensive value and wouldn't be as definitive as I was in the initial post you quoted in light of the trades of Lowrie and Scutaro. But, that's probably mainly just the reaction of a fan wanting to wear rose colored glasses because the Red Sox currently have no shortstop.

#170 someoneanywhere

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 05:29 PM

I think you're underestimating the media, Bobby V and the story and overvaluing development, the proper approach and patience. In an ideal world. I prefer your plan - I just don't think it's the most likely scenario.


Nope. I trust my eyes.

#171 Super Nomario

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 05:34 PM

I think you're underestimating the media, Bobby V and the story and overvaluing development, the proper approach and patience. In an ideal world. I prefer your plan - I just don't think it's the most likely scenario.

If the Red Sox are good in 2012, they're not going to need a media-fueled story to bring in hype and attention. If they're not good, wouldn't a starting SS hitting .230 with no power be less an inspiring tale of a young prodigy and more a symbol of everything that's wrong with the team and the organization? The Red Sox don't need a story; they need a winning team.

Edited by Super Nomario, 30 January 2012 - 05:39 PM.


#172 Sprowl


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Posted 30 January 2012 - 05:51 PM

Nope. I trust my eyes.


I wish I could trust my eyes, but they haven't seen enough Iglesias yet. I'm looking forward to spring training.

I'm thinking that fielding against inferior competition is much more meaningful than pitching or batting against inferior competition. Groundballs up the middle are pretty much the same in the minors and majors, and things like a shortstop's first step, range and ability to complete the difficult throw will not get cancelled out by superior competition. Either he can make the tough plays or he can't, and by all accounts, this guy can.

That hitting line is powerfully ugly, though.

#173 OttoC


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Posted 30 January 2012 - 06:21 PM

Actually that NYP league stint was a mid-season rehab assignment from a broken something in his wrist/hand. He also got hurt last year. I hadn't thought of this before, but his last season and a half of futility in the power department might be the result of that wrist/hand injury lingering, as can be the case, through multiple seasons.
...


bb-ref and SoxProspects listed Lowell before Portland in 2010, so I accepted that order without doing any other checking. I just now looked at BB America and they do the same; however, if you do a Google search for Iglesias Lowell you do find out that the order should start with Portland.

Thanks for pointing it out.

#174 JakeRae

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 07:31 PM

bb-ref and SoxProspects listed Lowell before Portland in 2010, so I accepted that order without doing any other checking. I just now looked at BB America and they do the same; however, if you do a Google search for Iglesias Lowell you do find out that the order should start with Portland.

Thanks for pointing it out.

Sites generally list a season's work with lower levels before upper levels regardless of when the player played at each level. Those listings are not intended to be chronological within a season.

#175 Rasputin


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Posted 30 January 2012 - 07:45 PM

I am pretty sure Iglesias could bat 1.000 in spring training and not make the opening day roster.

You want to talk July or August there's a possibility but the talk of him playing on Opening Day is sheer lunacy.

#176 OttoC


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Posted 30 January 2012 - 08:27 PM

Sites generally list a season's work with lower levels before upper levels regardless of when the player played at each level. Those listings are not intended to be chronological within a season.


I think they should be chronological, but that would mean splitting a season when a player goes from, say, AA to rehab and back to AA. Baseball America's website once had the dates players were with each club. I'm n ot sure if they stopped doing that or made it premium content or just do it for the current season.

#177 soxfan121


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Posted 01 February 2012 - 02:15 PM

If the Red Sox are good in 2012, they're not going to need a media-fueled story to bring in hype and attention. If they're not good, wouldn't a starting SS hitting .230 with no power be less an inspiring tale of a young prodigy and more a symbol of everything that's wrong with the team and the organization? The Red Sox don't need a story; they need a winning team.


I could not disagree more. I mean, yeah it's about winning baseball games, but it's also about a lot more than that. The Red Sox are concerned about winning baseball games AND with selling tickets, merchandise and advertising.

The STORY going into spring training is how the Red Sox, and their new manager, recover from the 2011 Collapse. The secondary storyline will be about the lack of activity in the off-season. Winning can't happen until April but a STORY can be sold throughout the spring. Changing the narrative back to baseball requires some kind of a "baseball story"; Bobby V can't be evaluated as a manager until games are played. So, to avoid the Collapse and the Spending Cuts, the Red Sox need to manufacture a baseball story that fans (i.e. not us degenerates, but rank & file fans) can digest.

Enter Iglesias. Nevermind that he's the highest paid SS on the roster. He's a fascinating, compelling story for fans and a way to change the narrative from Collapse & Spending Cuts to "Wonderkid Wins SS Job".

There's no way the Sox traded Scutaro and Lowrie to play Punto at SS. Punto is, and always was, a bench jockey with a known ceiling. An opening day lineup with Aviles or Punto at SS is depressing and reminds the fans that the Sox were more concerned with payroll than winning games. But an Opening Day lineup with the phenom, a just-turned-22 defensive wizard with experts gushing about his defense...you can fucking sell that. LL loves this plan so much he wants to make love to it.

Cranky bastards, like those who frequent this site, will bring up reasonable objections like "he can't hit" and "HE CANNOT HIT!!!" but they are missing the story. If Iglesias can hit, at all, especially if he gets a hit in a NESN game...he's making the team and starting on Opening Day. And it might even be "lunacy" - but that's kinda irrelevant, because it makes so much sense and is very obvious when you step back and look at the Sox offseason. This is their plan. And I think it's a bad plan. But, again, my opinion means little to a team that is desperate to change the current story about the team.

#178 Trotsky

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Posted 01 February 2012 - 02:46 PM

A narrative like that would get the novel dropped off at the nearest used book seller because the first chapter would conclude with: "And his combined OPS for his first month sat just north of .400"

#179 SumnerH


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Posted 01 February 2012 - 02:58 PM

A narrative like that would get the novel dropped off at the nearest used book seller because the first chapter would conclude with: "And his combined OPS for his first month sat just north of .400"


Plus, you have to be really out of touch to think that calling up Jose "Who?" Iglesias is going to generate any significant buzz with the fan base. Most fans (i.e. not us degenerates, but rank & file fans) aren't prospect followers and don't know who he is other than maybe "that guy who had a brief callup last season".

#180 Super Nomario

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Posted 01 February 2012 - 04:05 PM

I could not disagree more. I mean, yeah it's about winning baseball games, but it's also about a lot more than that. The Red Sox are concerned about winning baseball games AND with selling tickets, merchandise and advertising.

The STORY going into spring training is how the Red Sox, and their new manager, recover from the 2011 Collapse. The secondary storyline will be about the lack of activity in the off-season. Winning can't happen until April but a STORY can be sold throughout the spring. Changing the narrative back to baseball requires some kind of a "baseball story"; Bobby V can't be evaluated as a manager until games are played. So, to avoid the Collapse and the Spending Cuts, the Red Sox need to manufacture a baseball story that fans (i.e. not us degenerates, but rank & file fans) can digest.

Enter Iglesias. Nevermind that he's the highest paid SS on the roster. He's a fascinating, compelling story for fans and a way to change the narrative from Collapse & Spending Cuts to "Wonderkid Wins SS Job".

There's no way the Sox traded Scutaro and Lowrie to play Punto at SS. Punto is, and always was, a bench jockey with a known ceiling. An opening day lineup with Aviles or Punto at SS is depressing and reminds the fans that the Sox were more concerned with payroll than winning games. But an Opening Day lineup with the phenom, a just-turned-22 defensive wizard with experts gushing about his defense...you can fucking sell that. LL loves this plan so much he wants to make love to it.

Jose Iglesias is not selling tickets. The casual fan doesn't know who this guy is, and even if the media runs a couple "Sox teammates rave about Cuban phenom's defense" stories, he's not going to create any real buzz until the season starts, at which point the story is going to be how the team's doing. I don't think some casual fan is going to read a Herald article about Iglesias going 2-4 in a split-squad game against Minnesota and making a diving catch-and-throw and think "I wasn't going to buy any tickets or merchandise this year, but now that I read about this kid I'm all in!"

#181 soxfan121


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Posted 01 February 2012 - 04:10 PM

Plus, you have to be really out of touch to think that calling up Jose "Who?" Iglesias is going to generate any significant buzz with the fan base. Most fans (i.e. not us degenerates, but rank & file fans) aren't prospect followers and don't know who he is other than maybe "that guy who had a brief callup last season".


I think there's lots of legitimate arguments against my opinion but the formulation of the "phenom in spring training" narrative is as old as baseball itself. In January of 1997, the rank & file fan had no idea who Ramon Garciarapper was, either. By tax day everyone knew his name.

Fans find out about prospects from the media. The idea that the phenom out of ST story can't get traction because no one knows who the prospect makes little sense.

As for the OPS of .400...I guaran-damn-tee that Pedroia is trotted out as an example. Now, if he doesn't make contact for a month and plays shitty defense, sure. But if he makes a couple SportsCenter highlights and hits a few singles, he'll get an enormous amount of rope from Bobby V & Ben.

#182 soxfan121


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Posted 01 February 2012 - 04:15 PM

Jose Iglesias is not selling tickets. The casual fan doesn't know who this guy is, and even if the media runs a couple "Sox teammates rave about Cuban phenom's defense" stories, he's not going to create any real buzz until the season starts, at which point the story is going to be how the team's doing. I don't think some casual fan is going to read a Herald article about Iglesias going 2-4 in a split-squad game against Minnesota and making a diving catch-and-throw and think "I wasn't going to buy any tickets or merchandise this year, but now that I read about this kid I'm all in!"


You're missing the point - instead of focusing on the Collapse or the Spending Cuts, this is a baseball story the team can focus on. A "we've moved on - look at our exciting future!" kind of story. Of course no one is buying tickets on based on a ST performance. But they are buying more tickets, merchandise, etc. when the story about the team is no longer "worst collapse ever" and "cheap owners afraid of the luxury tax" and IS about something baseball related.

The organization desperately wants the story to be about something other than how fucked up or cheap they are. What other moves this offseason could provide a "baseball controversy"? There is an opening at SS, the highest paid guy in the organization who plays SS is Jose Iglesias and there's no way Ben Cherington wants to start his tenure as the guy who traded two SS to play Nick Fucking Punto there. Ben wants to be the guy who takes a bold risk on a young star. And if that fails, to be the guy who had a decent backup plan.

#183 Super Nomario

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Posted 01 February 2012 - 04:41 PM

You're missing the point - instead of focusing on the Collapse or the Spending Cuts, this is a baseball story the team can focus on. A "we've moved on - look at our exciting future!" kind of story. Of course no one is buying tickets on based on a ST performance. But they are buying more tickets, merchandise, etc. when the story about the team is no longer "worst collapse ever" and "cheap owners afraid of the luxury tax" and IS about something baseball related.

So the best way to change the focus to something baseball-related ... is by making a decision that is all about changing the narrative and not about baseball at all? You're right, I am missing the point.

Crappy teams need to sell fans on the future. The Red Sox don't. If they're bad, having a bad shortstop who is also young is not going to change the narrative. If they're good, it's not going to matter what the narrative is; people will want to go to games, buy merchandise, etc. The success of the team is going to be the primary driver of sales; the best baseball decision is the best business decision.

The organization desperately wants the story to be about something other than how fucked up or cheap they are. What other moves this offseason could provide a "baseball controversy"? There is an opening at SS, the highest paid guy in the organization who plays SS is Jose Iglesias and there's no way Ben Cherington wants to start his tenure as the guy who traded two SS to play Nick Fucking Punto there. Ben wants to be the guy who takes a bold risk on a young star. And if that fails, to be the guy who had a decent backup plan.

If they play Iglesias and he flops, as is likely, isn't that just going to reinforce how fucked up and cheap they are?

#184 Trotsky

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Posted 02 February 2012 - 10:08 AM

Nomar as a "chosen one" type of plot device that saves a collapsing civilisation was much more palatable than Iglesias. Yes, I know Nomar's mL stats weren't predictive of what he turned into (roids are always a constant question mark there for me at least), but they were significantly better than Iglesias'.... the narrative only works if there is some serious belief there. Think of the King guy in the LoTR books/movies. He inspired. Iglesias doesn't and most likely still won't after several months in the ML's.
Your comparison to Pedroia is the same. mL numbers are vastly different. A pretty sizable majority of both knowledgeable fans and casual fans bought into the hype with him, and his early struggles caused some to want to toss him overboard, I think the majority still had faith.
There's no narrative being put forth from Larry about Iglesias as the future savior here....

#185 Doctor G

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Posted 02 February 2012 - 11:49 AM

You're missing the point - instead of focusing on the Collapse or the Spending Cuts, this is a baseball story the team can focus on. A "we've moved on - look at our exciting future!" kind of story. Of course no one is buying tickets on based on a ST performance. But they are buying more tickets, merchandise, etc. when the story about the team is no longer "worst collapse ever" and "cheap owners afraid of the luxury tax" and IS about something baseball related.

The organization desperately wants the story to be about something other than how fucked up or cheap they are. What other moves this offseason could provide a "baseball controversy"? There is an opening at SS, the highest paid guy in the organization who plays SS is Jose Iglesias and there's no way Ben Cherington wants to start his tenure as the guy who traded two SS to play Nick Fucking Punto there. Ben wants to be the guy who takes a bold risk on a young star. And if that fails, to be the guy who had a decent backup plan.

what I don't understand is why they didn't make a posting bid for Nakajima who went to NYY for a meagre 2.5 M posting.
If as they claim the plan was always to attempt to move Scutaro's contract, wouldn't Nakajima be a more attractive option than Punto/ Aviles as a replacement SS for Scutaro.
As things stand now, there is a good chance they will be bidding on him next winter regardless.

#186 The Best Catch in 100 Years

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Posted 02 February 2012 - 05:40 PM

what I don't understand is why they didn't make a posting bid for Nakajima who went to NYY for a meagre 2.5 M posting.
If as they claim the plan was always to attempt to move Scutaro's contract, wouldn't Nakajima be a more attractive option than Punto/ Aviles as a replacement SS for Scutaro.
As things stand now, there is a good chance they will be bidding on him next winter regardless.

What exactly makes you so confident that Nakajima would be an improvement on Punto/Aviles? I haven't heard great things about Nakajima's D or offense. I couldn't find much about him online, but his pathetic posting fee and this scathing tweet (#) suggest he's a fringe major leaguer.

#187 Carl Everetts Therapist


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Posted 09 March 2012 - 09:38 AM

nice start in Spring Training...... My money is on him starting in Boston, though I think it's the wrong move

Edited by Carl Everetts Therapist, 09 March 2012 - 09:39 AM.


#188 C4CRVT

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Posted 09 March 2012 - 10:34 AM

The writing is on the wall and it tells me that Valentine is gonna go with Iglesias in Boston to start the year.... Unless he struggles with the remainder of camp. There is just too much buzz about Iglesias and i think there is a strong effort to push him into the starting role.

I think Iglesias should head back to AAA and build on this confidence he's getting in ST instead of starting in Boston and possibly having a setback which may impact him now and in the future.

Either way so far Iglesias is the story of camp


I'm pasting in from the Blaming Bobby thread.

Iggy doesn't need to work on his confidence. He needs to work on his hitting. He showed zero ability to hit effectively against AAA pitching last year. Unless Aviles is a complete butcher or if Iggy has transformed his bat, there's no way he should see the majors for any reason other than an injury.

Even then, Punto is still probably more valuable as a SS than Iggy hitting .212/.256/.301 ish

#189 Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Posted 09 March 2012 - 10:50 AM

I think CET was saying he needs to work on his confidence as a hitter...

If Iglesias can prove he can hit above .250 he's the starting SS. You gotta feel bad for Aviles if that's what happens. All in all I'm pulling for the kid to make it, and bad feelings aside Aviles would be major depth coming off the bench.

Punto's value is as backup. Nothing more. I'd take the possibility of Iglesias hitting over the absolute of Punto not hitting any day.

Edited by Eck'sSneakyCheese, 09 March 2012 - 10:52 AM.


#190 C4CRVT

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Posted 09 March 2012 - 11:27 AM

I think the odds of Iglesias hitting .250 in MLB are very, very slim based on the line he put up at AAA last year. .235/.285/.269.

That line says "needs at least another year, if not more (if ever)" to me.

I get the glove love but "A player ordinarily loses about 18% of his offensive ability relative to the league in moving from AAA to the majors" (Dan Szymborski).
I don't yet konw how to do park effects, adjust for his age etc., but how do you feel about your starting shortstop hitting .193/.233/.222?

I have great hope for Iggy but I have no idea why anyone would think he's in serious contention for a spot on the ML roster. I'd love to be wrong about this.

#191 Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Posted 09 March 2012 - 11:33 AM

I think we're both in agreement here. Logic and the numbers say he isn't ready and Aviles will do a more than suitable job. BUT, if by some miracle the kid can start hitting , even a little bit, how amazing would that be? That's why I'm irrationally pulling for him to make it. Just like you I'd love the "facts" to be wrong.

#192 jackno

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Posted 09 March 2012 - 11:53 AM

Merloni this morning stated that JI is the best fielding shortstop in the majors right now.
Seems to me that all great fielders (Ozzie, Vizquel, etc) had to learn how to hit after they arrived.
Unless he is damaged by "bringing him up too soon", why would you not give your pitchers that kind of weapon?

#193 C4CRVT

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Posted 09 March 2012 - 12:14 PM

We're back to my question for Ben the other day. Ultimately, determining the net difference in wins between Iglesias and Aviles is highly dependent on figuring out how to value defense. The math is pretty solid IMO for (for instance) RC/PA but what the heck do we plug in for runs saved per inning plus the value to the pitching staff. Damned if I know the answer and Ben chose not (or didn't have time) to shed light on the FO's perspective.

#194 Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Posted 09 March 2012 - 12:18 PM

He's been pretty tight lipped about personnel decisions anyway. I think the last time he was asked about it he said something along the lines of it being in Bobby's hands. I think the bigger picture FO wise would be buzz/ticket sales getting to go to Fenway to see the "Wizard of Igg"

#195 yecul


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Posted 09 March 2012 - 12:22 PM

The team can absorb an offensive dud. The left side of the IF could be an issue if SS is substandard (or merely average) when combined with a fresh-off-surgery-and-aging Youkilis. I can see the logic behind going glove first.

While it's possible that he could start hitting well enough (say, the .250 cited above), but it's also possible that he sprouts wings and flies to harpy island.

#196 Plympton91


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Posted 09 March 2012 - 01:22 PM

The team can absorb an offensive dud.


Can they? Maybe if in mid-May, Crawford is hitting 300 / 355 / 475 they can have that discussion. But to open the season they're going to laying out a 6 through 8 of Ross, Sweeney/McDonald, and Saltalamaccia/Shoppach in some order. That isn't anywhere near the 1927 Yankees.

The left side of the IF could be an issue if SS is substandard (or merely average) when combined with a fresh-off-surgery-and-aging Youkilis. I can see the logic behind going glove first.


There are probably at least a few glove first shortstops who were available via free agency or trade who project to be less historically inept at the plate than Iglesias. People keep saying, "Oh, the Sox can absorb a bad offensive player if he has a good glove." I wouldn't vehemently disagree, but right now, Jose Iglesias projects not to be a "bad hitter," rather he projects to be one of the WORST EVER major league hitters. Starting Iglesias at SS in 2012 is the functional equivalent of starting Kevin Cash at catcher in 2009.

While it's possible that he could start hitting well enough (say, the .250 cited above), but it's also possible that he sprouts wings and flies to harpy island.


We'll see. If Eric Van were here he could note that in the last 10 games of the 2011 season at Pawtucket, Iglesias had an 800 OPS and the probability of that representing a real change in his ability was 99.98765 percent. J/K Eric.

Edited by Plympton91, 09 March 2012 - 01:23 PM.


#197 Carl Everetts Therapist


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Posted 09 March 2012 - 02:03 PM

He did have a well-hit triple yesterday....


All kidding aside. I think if Iglesias starts in Boston it says more about Valentine than it does about either Cherington or Iglesias.

I think he could go to Pawtucket this year and make himself into a really decent AAA hitter and I think thats exactly what he needs to do. Watching him swing it seems like he has really top of the line bat speed, if he can learn to recognise pitches better and become a tad more patient he could be a borderline all-star. If he can't learn those things he could flame out pretty quick as I think the Fenway crowd will get sick of a black hole in the line-up pretty quick even with flasy fielding.

#198 Eddie Jurak


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Posted 09 March 2012 - 02:09 PM

There is literally no downside to having him start the season in AAA. None. If he hits enough down there there is plenty of time to bring him up. If he doesn't, then he would have been a disaster in the majors.

#199 Rasputin


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Posted 09 March 2012 - 02:12 PM

I almost posted something about the Big V going with Iglesias myself because, frankly, the notion terrifies me.

I literally do not think it is possible that a single spring training performance, no matter how good, can convince me, or should convince anyone, that Iglesias is ready to be anything but an automatic out at the major league level.

He had a .285 OBP in AAA last year fer chrissakes. If they do this, I do not see it ending well.

But on the plus side, we would probably dump Punto.

#200 MannysDestination


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Posted 09 March 2012 - 03:23 PM

All kidding aside. I think if Iglesias starts in Boston it says more about Valentine than it does about either Cherington or Iglesias.


Why? That would be Cherington's decision, not Iglesias or Valentine's.




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