478 replies to this topic

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

I didn't catch Gammons on NESN but supposedly he was saying that he had a conversation with Boras about Jackson and he has several offers but is most likely to sign a one year deal. Gammons also said that he has a "feeling" about Jackson landing with the Sox.

The Sox are going to have to come up from that 6 mil mark to sign him most likely. I've mentioned this about Ortiz, but why don't the Sox construct a contract similar to the one they gave Beltre ($9 mil for 1 year with a 5 mil player option)? Jackson gets the money he wants on a one year deal and the Sox drop his AAV to a number they are comfortable with. The option will almost surely be declined and Jackson will be a free agent again looking to cash in.

I watched this last night, thought it was pretty interesting. It seemed Gammo thought that Jackson would likely end up here. Take it FWIW. He also had some good commentary on Iglesias, but I'm not going there.

[ehaz]

There was some speculation that the Reds could trade Homer Bailey and his 2.5 million dollar salary to make room for Oswalt. Would Bailey make sense as a trade target? His K/BB has been improving the last two years and he could finally break out if he stays healthy.

[rglenmt]

Not to be a glass half full fan, but I think the Red Sox are in pretty good shape pitching wise a few days away from pitchers and catchers reporting. A rotation of Beckett, Lester and Buchholz, following by you pick it among Bard, Aceves, Padillo, Doubront with Ranaudo waiting in wings (things Anthony will advance quickly in his second full year of organized baseball) and maybe even Andrew Miller getting one last chance to be a solid ML pitcher (he certainly has the stuff) and DiceK recogninzing the reality that he has to learn to pitch MLB style or not only will his tommy john curtail his opportunity for another healthy contract, but his obstinacy will send him on his way with the label that despite his good stuff and 2 MVP World Baseball awards, he cannot learn even from a couple of pretty good pitching coaches, John Farrell and Curt Young.

[soxhop411]

Gammons on MLB Network: #RedSox have only offer on the table for free agent SP, Roy Oswalt.

[Tyrone Biggums]

Gammons on MLB Network: #RedSox have only offer on the table for free agent SP, Roy Oswalt.

He won't come here, Gammons also said that it looked very good between Jackson and Boston last week as well. So his credibility isn't what it used to be.

[ivanvamp]

He won't come here, Gammons also said that it looked very good between Jackson and Boston last week as well. So his credibility isn't what it used to be.

Well, if it's true that the Sox have the only offer on the table, then for Oswalt it's either accept it or not pitch.

Or have his price drop below what the Sox are offering and accept a really dirt-cheap offer that someone else eventually puts out there.

[TOleary25]

Every team in the MLB should probably be in on Oswalt at the presumed Sox price ($5-6 mil). It's pretty suprising what little market this guy has, could say alot about teams being worried about his back. Even non-contenders should be offering a similar deal because he could potentially bring a nice return if he pitches well in the first half. I have a feeling Oswalt has really limited his market by wanting to play for a contender and preferably in the NL.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

On MLBTR, they've had him linked to the Reds but I can't imagine where he would want to go there over coming here. Unless he really wants to play in the NL or they offer him a substantial amount more and in both cases we never had a shot anyway.

Edit: Bradford on EEI now saying that Oswalt to sox "unlikely" and talks have "no traction"

Edited by Eck'sSneakyCheese, 07 February 2012 - 09:14 AM.

[MikeM]

He won't come here, Gammons also said that it looked very good between Jackson and Boston last week as well. So his credibility isn't what it used to be.

I just wish he'd sign somewhere, so we can finally put all this wishful thinking to bed already.

Let it go Gammons. Let it go.

Edited by MikeM, 07 February 2012 - 02:21 PM.

[Sampo Gida]

Well, if it's true that the Sox have the only offer on the table, then for Oswalt it's either accept it or not pitch.

Or have his price drop below what the Sox are offering and accept a really dirt-cheap offer that someone else eventually puts out there.

No hurry for him to sign. In February, every team is unduly optimistic and rosters are pretty full. Come the end of March, teams realize that some of those SP'ers they had hoped would be able to perform won't, either due to injury or just awful springs. Then Oswalt can start answering the phone. He may miss a month or two of the season, but at his age and with his back, that's probably a good thing. He wants to finish the season strong as he is looking for a bigger payday in 2013.

Pitching in the AL East at Fenway is not the best way to enhance your value for 2013 and beyond. Better to take less to play elsewhere, and it's not like the Red Sox have been blowing him away with an offer he can not refuse.

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

There was some speculation that the Reds could trade Homer Bailey and his 2.5 million dollar salary to make room for Oswalt. Would Bailey make sense as a trade target? His K/BB has been improving the last two years and he could finally break out if he stays healthy.

I'd be thrilled if the Red Sox could land Bailey. He's had some trouble staying healthy and keeping the ball in the park, but even in their NL Central shitzone context those K/BB numbers look very impressive. Very good down the stretch in 2011 too--21.9% K/PA and 4.9% BB/PA in August and September. I'd imagine his top prospect luster has dimmed some, but he's still only 25. If the asking price is reasonable (big if), he could be a great get. I certainly wouldn't be opposed to giving up a Brentz-level guy for him, or possibly someone even more valuable.

[soxhop411]

The Red Sox still appear to be in the running for free-agent righty Roy Oswalt. According to one major league source, the issue is no longer money, but geography. Oswalt evidently prefers the Midwest (St. Louis) or South (Texas) but if those scenarios don't work out the Red Sox would be an alternative. There are some back issues with Oswalt, but none severe enough to scare the Red Sox away

extra bases

[MikeM]

We've been reported to be "in the running" on pretty much every single free agent out there this winter not named Fielder/Pujols. At this point, and as far as our 2012 rotation goes, i'm more concerned with the potential contract we shouldn't/are not going be handing Wakefield then yet another report on the Oswalt front.

And of course the issue there(for us at least) is the money. Before Theo got all overly-obsessed with the shiny factor in free agency, and started selling this franchise's financial soul to the devil in the attempt to maximize his short term chances, this all was a lot less complicated. Pick any winter 2004-2009, and Oswalt on a 1 year "we'll pay a little more to keep the overall commitment light" deal goes down here long before now.

[Tyrone Biggums]

We've been reported to be "in the running" on pretty much every single free agent out there this winter not named Fielder/Pujols. At this point, and as far as our 2012 rotation goes, i'm more concerned with the potential contract we shouldn't/are not going be handing Wakefield then yet another report on the Oswalt front.

And of course the issue there(for us at least) is the money. Before Theo got all overly-obsessed with the shiny factor in free agency, and started selling this franchise's financial soul to the devil in the attempt to maximize his short term chances, this all was a lot less complicated. Pick any winter 2004-2009, and Oswalt on a 1 year "we'll pay a little more to keep the overall commitment light" deal goes down here long before now.

I can see Oswalt going back to the Phillies for about 7 million. If this happens, then Cherington has no excuse for low balling the guy for an extra 2 million. So we're going with a major risk putting Bard and Aceves in the 4th and 5th spots (lets face it, if Cook breaks camp then this team has a lot of issues).

[soxhop411]

I can see Oswalt going back to the Phillies for about 7 million. If this happens, then Cherington has no excuse for low balling the guy for an extra 2 million. So we're going with a major risk putting Bard and Aceves in the 4th and 5th spots (lets face it, if Cook breaks camp then this team has a lot of issues).

what if he just does not want to pitch here (hence why we are at the bottom of his list, we reportedly have the only offer, which he has yet to accept/reject)? nothing the FO can do

Edited by soxhop411, 08 February 2012 - 07:13 PM.

[Tyrone Biggums]

what if he just does not want to pitch here (hence why we are at the bottom of his list, we reportedly have the only offer, which he has yet to accept/reject)? nothing the FO can do

This is true, and I think that is truly the case. However, you're telling me that they honestly expected Edwin Jackson to accept a 6 million a year? I'm just making a comment in general about the bargain basement tactics this offseason.

[soxhop411]

This is true, and I think that is truly the case. However, you're telling me that they honestly expected Edwin Jackson to accept a 6 million a year? I'm just making a comment in general about the bargain basement tactics this offseason.

eh, it could also be that jackson did not want to come to the east on a one year deal? since all the talent moved from the NL to the AL this offseason?. If they go basement shopping again next year i will become worried, but at this point they are having a similar offseason to last years yanks after spending, a lot the previous two

Edited by soxhop411, 08 February 2012 - 07:25 PM.

[starfailure]

Rich Harden will miss 2012 to recover from another surgery, so scratch him off the list. (Not that he was ever really on it. Remember, the Sox didn't like what they saw in his medical records, anyway: http://www.mlbtrader...ich-harden.html)

[TOleary25]

eh, it could also be that jackson did not want to come to the east on a one year deal? since all the talent moved from the NL to the AL this offseason?.

Maybe it couldve come down to that if money were similar, but the Nationals gave him around double what the Sox "offered".

[Tyrone Biggums]

Maybe it couldve come down to that if money were similar, but the Nationals gave him around double what the Sox "offered".

Exactly my point, it seems like the Sox are offering half assed bids and letting it leak out to show that they're trying to get these guys in here. I believe the plan all along was to fill some holes and attempt to get under the luxury tax. If that is the case then just be honest, tell the fans not to expect Oswalt Jackson etc to walk through that door. Instead expect Carlos Silva or Aaron Cook...but some people cannot accept that so I understand the rouse.

[Towney007]

What kind of rouse has there been? When has the Red Sox front office ever seriously or publicly let on that they were adding significant pitching pieces this offseason? The only rouse is people getting themselves in a tizzy about someone coming here. Reality is that this team merely staying healthy is going to make up for a lot more wins than signing Roy Oswalt or Edwin Jackson would.

[Sampo Gida]

What kind of rouse has there been? When has the Red Sox front office ever seriously or publicly let on that they were adding significant pitching pieces this offseason? The only rouse is people getting themselves in a tizzy about someone coming here. Reality is that this team merely staying healthy is going to make up for a lot more wins than signing Roy Oswalt or Edwin Jackson would.

Yeah, Ben has been pretty consistent in saying he is satisfied going into ST with the pitching he has and that adding another significant piece is unlikely.

As for merely staying healthy, thats easier said than done.

Beckett has had health issues, and has not finished strong in September/October since 2007.

Buchholz had what was called a congenital back condition that caused his back problems, and his ability to throw 200 P, or. even 180 IP is a big question mark.

Bard has never started in the MLB and his September swoon makes you wonder how many innings he can give you.

Aceves also has an injury history with back problems prior to last year.

That's just the rotation. Bailey has not thrown more than 42 IP in a season the past 2 years with elbow problems.

Youkillis is coming off surgery for a 2nd year running and may be wearing down. Papi will be 36. Crawford coming off wrist surgery.

Pedroia, Ellsbury and A-Gon were all healthy last year, but all 3 had issues in 2010.

I think that expecting the team to stay healthy is pretty optimistic. Lack of depth in the starting rotation, IF and OF is a legitimate concern

IF depth mainly became a concern after trading Scutaro for what most people assumed was to free up money for a SP'er.

[koufax37]

I will mostly stay away from your offensive portion where we are pretty amazing overall, should get more ABs from Youk and more production from RF and LF.

But I don't think your pitching evaluation is tied to reality. This team that was one win away from the playoffs replaces the Clay injury, Dice-K and Lackey train wreck, the Wake endless quest for 200, and everything else that happened after Beckett and Lester with:

Bard: I'm still confused why people aren't more excited about him in this role. 2012 will be a transition and he won't really be trying to be a Weaver/Verlander type until 2013, but do you really think he won't give us more quality innings than his slot in the rotation last year, and then sometime around when Dice-K is back hit an innings limit and slot back in to the relief ace. I expect him to pitch 125-150 innings or so with a huge improvement over the Lackey rotation underbelly he is replacing, while Melancon doesn't have a huge drop off in the 70 innings he will replace.

Aceves: I expect some regression in the quality of his innings compared to his outstanding 2011, but he will improve on his career best 114 from last year, and can offer the starter reliever flexibility we need out of the 5th spot in the rotation, which will also help as Bard deals with an innings limit.

Buchholz: Anything can happen, but it is very likely we will get a lot more out of him than last year. You question him throwing 200 or even 180 innings. But even 160 would be an important 80 IP bump from last year when those innings were left to the the Clown Committee.

Lester/Beckett: I think Jon will rebound a little and Josh regress most likely, but their sum will be close to 400 top of the rotation innings and is likely to be fairly stable.

Dice-K: Never know how Tommy John rebounds go, but he pitched not a lot and hurt in the first half last year. When he returns he is likely to log more innings with better quality.

Other guys: We didn't get anything good out of any other starters, so it is not a longshot to think that one of our flyers or younger players will outperform as our fill in / 6th starter. Don't count out Padilla despite the baggage, although Cook, Silva, and Maine don't really seem like much.

Bullpen: Melancon/Bailey is worse than Bard/Papelbon, and Aceves will be missed when in the rotation, but I don't think the dropoff is as huge, and down the strech Bard will likely be back in the pen.

The Red Sox scored 875 runs last year, and should be in that neighborhood again. They allowed 737 runs, and I see that dropping significantly, and that will be enough for a team that needed a nightmare April and September to finish one inning away from the playoffs.

Beckett has had health issues, and has not finished strong in September/October since 2007.

Buchholz had what was called a congenital back condition that caused his back problems, and his ability to throw 200 P, or. even 180 IP is a big question mark.

Bard has never started in the MLB and his September swoon makes you wonder how many innings he can give you.

Aceves also has an injury history with back problems prior to last year.

That's just the rotation. Bailey has not thrown more than 42 IP in a season the past 2 years with elbow problems.

[Towney007]

Injuries are a risk for any team. Depth is a concern for every team. Injuries deplete depth. When they happen in abundance, teams fail.

[MikeM]

But I don't think your pitching evaluation is tied to reality. This team that was one win away from the playoffs replaces the Clay injury, Dice-K and Lackey train wreck, the Wake endless quest for 200, and everything else that happened after Beckett and Lester with:

What exactly in what he presented wasn't/isn't tied to reality?

If anything, the complete willingness to acknowledge the flip side of the coin/coins in play here is just as tied to the current reality we face as any need to emphasis the potential upside/s, imo.

[koufax37]

Primarily that staying healthy is easier said than done, and then citing each pitcher's issues with the implication that our injury profiles sum up to a cloudy 2012. I don't take issue with the individual points, but I don't think that they add up to a major concern of the current staff likely to have injury issues prevent them from out performing last year's staff.

Injuries are part of the game, especially with pitchers, but we had two tommy johns in our starting rotation and another starter have his season end in mid June, and we lost a key closer-level player (Jenks) after 15 first half innings. I think it is pretty clear that we aren't fortunate enough to have Ripken or Gehrig on the team, but I don't think our injury profile makes 2011 level injuries a reasonable expectation.

I expect our pitching staff to have a lower total injury impact in 2012 than last year, and I expect them to outperform our 2011 staff.

What exactly in what he presented wasn't/isn't tied to reality?

If anything, the complete willingness to acknowledge the flip side of the coin/coins in play here is just as tied to the current reality we face as any need to emphasis the potential upside/s, imo.

[TOleary25]

I think the one thing that irks people is that the Scutaro trade seems confusing if the plan wasn't to add a starter. Right now it just looks like a way for the FO to save a couple mil which doesn't sit very well with some (me included).

[koufax37]

Yes, the Scutaro trade is very strange, since I think there is universal agreement that we do not want Punto or Iglesias to get 500ABs any time soon.

The FO clearly likes Aviles as a bat, and I tend to agree that he is likely to perform in his age 31 year very similarly to Scutaro in his age 36 year, and our offensive loss isn't that significant. Defensively I have some pretty big concerns since he hasn't played even 35 games there in a season since his rookie year. It would be disappointing if he stays out there, performs not so great, and we give up a few more runs than if we had Scutaro. But the bigger concern is if we end up with Bobby V. giving lots of ABs to Punto in this situation and he performs to his career average and not is outlier 2011 level.

But while each of these scenarios has us a few runs worse than if we kept Scutaro (Aviles's glove or Punto's bat), I don't think the difference with an aging Scutaro is worth the cost in both real dollars and luxury tax dollars. Whether we spend those savings now, later, or they have merely offset another luxury tax related move later, I think it is a smart business move and we would have been drastically overpaying the difference between Scutaro and Aviles/Punto. It certainly smelled nicer when it seemed those dollars might go to Oswalt, but the substance of the move is similar.

With limited resources, the value of keeping Scutaro exceeded the cost of keeping Scutaro. While it is frustrating to suddenly feel penny-wise after a few years of dollar-stupid, I think there is a fair amount of penny-wisdom in this move.

[Stanley Steamer]

I think Iglesias will be given every chance to prove himself this spring. Obviously his hitting skills have been lacking thus far, but there's a chance he'll respond better to the big stage, and I wouldn't be surprised if Valentine takes a shine to him. Scutaro's money could yet be used on pitching, but was probably felt to be an area of organizational largesse in any case, and therefore, discarded. Punto should be a backup; Aviles the starter, unless Iglesias rocks ST, but the latter will come up if Aviles falters. There will be at bats "given away", but all in the interest of what makes the team tick. Now about rebuilding that rotation.....

[SpruceTrap]

You are correct. And I believe there were also stories of Rangers players thanking Daniels for releasing him. Just out of curiosity, when was the last time one of these reclamation starters worked out for the Sox? The Yankees seem to have one of these every year while the Red Sox flop with Smoltz, Wade Miller, Millwood, etc.

David Wells in 2005 pitched 184 innings with a 102 ERA+. I'd say that was pretty successful. It's not like we have a history of trying out many re-treads and this is the first time I can remember that we've had this many re-treads with major league experience in camp.

[Tyrone Biggums]

David Wells in 2005 pitched 184 innings with a 102 ERA+. I'd say that was pretty successful. It's not like we have a history of trying out many re-treads and this is the first time I can remember that we've had this many re-treads with major league experience in camp.

Wells wasn't necessarily a "retread" he was brought in as a guy who would solidify the rotation and become a #2-#3 starter. He did a solid job, but if you're looking at pure retreads then the answer is none. Although, I believe a guy like Ohlendorf who has good command could become a solid option in the back end. I think that in retrospect we can all complain about signing Lackey and Crawford forced us to sit out this year in free agency, but in all honesty would you have felt comfortable jumping in on Edwin Jackson? He's been quite an enigma his whole career and I don't see that changing anytime soon unless he can get a strong pitching coach. The Sox have used odd tactics with free agents, acting as if last year never happened and still setting the line in the sand on free agents who should only be so honored to wear the Red and White.

That being said in reality this free agent class represented a lot of depth but overall aside from Pujols and Fielder was one of the weaker ones in recent memory. CJ Wilson was the top option for pitching and while he didn't get a ton of money people need to realize that he is still a largely unproven product. Giving a guy who has had 2 years of starting 15 million a year is a big gamble.

The Sox essentially traded Scutaro for Clayton Mortenson Cody Ross and Cash.

They traded Josh Reddick and dreck for Andrew Bailey and while Bailey has injury concerns he is making 1/4th of Papelbons salary and is a top 10 closer when healthy

They traded Jed Lowrie for Melancon who is at the very least a lockdown 8th inning arm. Worst case hes a closer while Bailey is on the DL.

Right now you are looking at a rotation of Lester Beckett Buchholz Bard and Aceves. If Bard pans out then that is one of the best 1-4's in the game. I feel that Bard has matured as a pitcher since the minors so all of the people who are pointing to his single A stats as proof that he'll flop as a starter neglect to mention that was almost 5 years ago. The main thing for Bard will be stamina, can he adjust to throwing 160-180 innings a season? Can Aceves do the same? I firmly believe that while Boston has brought these middling options in to compete with Aceves for the 5th spot, they also brought them in to see who can take Aceves role from last season. One guy who not many fans have mentioned is Alex Wilson. While he does have a tendency to give up the long ball he did pitch quite a few clean innings in Portland and looked okay late in the year when he got promoted. If anything I would look at Wilson to be a dark horse for the long reliever job.

I think that people have allowed themselves to become enamored with making the big splash instead of doing whats best for the team overall. I'm not advocating anything the Sox have done this season at all, but give it a chance to play out. At this time last year people felt this team would win the World Series even if we traded Papelbon and put Bard into the closer role. What changed? The team isn't as bad as last year showed and wasn't as good as the media hyped them up to be. The hype has died down and the team is under the radar, I think we'll see a good season overall, especially from our beloved Popeye's bunch.

[Sampo Gida]

Primarily that staying healthy is easier said than done, and then citing each pitcher's issues with the implication that our injury profiles sum up to a cloudy 2012. I don't take issue with the individual points, but I don't think that they add up to a major concern of the current staff likely to have injury issues prevent them from out performing last year's staff.

Injuries are part of the game, especially with pitchers, but we had two tommy johns in our starting rotation and another starter have his season end in mid June, and we lost a key closer-level player (Jenks) after 15 first half innings. I think it is pretty clear that we aren't fortunate enough to have Ripken or Gehrig on the team, but I don't think our injury profile makes 2011 level injuries a reasonable expectation.

I expect our pitching staff to have a lower total injury impact in 2012 than last year, and I expect them to outperform our 2011 staff.

Last year we had a SPing staff that some argued was 2nd to the Phillies. I started a thread saying we whould be concerned with the SP'ing depth since injuries almost always happen.

http://sonsofsamhorn...pitching-depth/

There could of course be some regression this year but the main difference between this year and last year is 2/5 of last years rotation is out with TJ surgery to start the season, and our 6th starter who made 23 starts last year retired.

So we are starting the season with last years depth (Aceves who made 4 starts last year and adding Bard) making up 40% of our top 5. . Buchholz is returning from a season ending injury caused by a "congenital" back condition. Bard looks to be our #4 SP'er has had no sucess as a starter in the minors and who has had issues with fatigue as a reliever. Last year had an awful September with diminished velocity and a lower arm angle. Asking Bard to throw 160 IP w/o blowing out his arm is a real gamble. Then you have Aceves whom we are pencilling in at #5 who has a history of injury problems and was not very effective as a SP'er last year in only 4 starts.

No more Wake, but we have Doubront who has had injury issues the past 2 years, Tazawa off TJ surgery, and Miller who has been awful and a collection of guys on minor league deals due to injuries and/or declining performance who are looking for a 2nd/last chance. Like last year, there are no prospects on the horizon to call up like Lester and Buchholz in years past. Daisuke will be back in July, but how effective he will be is anyones guess

We have 2 guys in Lester and Beckett who had good years last year, but Beckett missed a lot of time in 2010 due to his back and has had issues (injury and/or performance) every August/Sept/Oct since 2007.

Maybe they outperform last year staff, and the sun comes out, it could happen, but from where I sit, current conditions are cloudy.

Updating the summary from last years thread

Top 5 starters games (total starters)
2004 157 ( 8)
2005 143 (9)
2006 114 (14)
2007 140 (9)
2008 134 (11)
2009 125 (11)
2010 139 (8)
2011 110 (10)


I think Beckett, Buchholz and Lester might give you 90 starts if we they are healthy. Thats leaves 72 starts to fill. Bard and Aceves might give you 30 combined presuming they are on some IP limit and will transfer to the pen at some point. That leaves 32 starts, which is about 1/5 of a rotation to be filled by some combination of Daisuke/Doubront/Miller/Padilla/Tazawa/Cooke/etc. And that's if the Red Sox are lucky w/o any major injuries to the top 5. Of course, the Red Sox could always sign Oswalt or make a deal at the trading deadline and the picture becames brighter, but we can not assume this at this point.

So thats the best forecast, partly sunny at best. If Beckett has another year like 2010, or Buchholz another year like last year, the forecast becomes quite gloomy. Every team has injuries, but the Red Sox have less of a cushion to withstand them this year than last year.

Edited by Sampo Gida, 18 February 2012 - 08:14 PM.

[MikeM]

I think the most frustrating part of this winter for me so far is the realization that we just spent over half a decade+ PRIMED to capitalize on a turn in the market like we are seeing play out now. Kuruda/Oswalt/Jackson, all up for grabs at 1 year deals in a winter we are looking for 2 starters? A few years back that had Theo Epstein's Red Sox written all over it.

Sampo's breakdown there is on point, imo. In general, i believe a lot of people are overlooking the overall sum of optimistic spins being made in some of these projections floating around. For all the "things will be better by default", that's an awful lot of innings potentially exposed that can easiliy play out as a repeat disater.

[SpruceTrap]

Wells wasn't necessarily a "retread" he was brought in as a guy who would solidify the rotation and become a #2-#3 starter. He did a solid job, but if you're looking at pure retreads then the answer is none. Although, I believe a guy like Ohlendorf who has good command could become a solid option in the back end. I think that in retrospect we can all complain about signing Lackey and Crawford forced us to sit out this year in free agency, but in all honesty would you have felt comfortable jumping in on Edwin Jackson? He's been quite an enigma his whole career and I don't see that changing anytime soon unless he can get a strong pitching coach. The Sox have used odd tactics with free agents, acting as if last year never happened and still setting the line in the sand on free agents who should only be so honored to wear the Red and White.

That being said in reality this free agent class represented a lot of depth but overall aside from Pujols and Fielder was one of the weaker ones in recent memory. CJ Wilson was the top option for pitching and while he didn't get a ton of money people need to realize that he is still a largely unproven product. Giving a guy who has had 2 years of starting 15 million a year is a big gamble.

The Sox essentially traded Scutaro for Clayton Mortenson Cody Ross and Cash.

They traded Josh Reddick and dreck for Andrew Bailey and while Bailey has injury concerns he is making 1/4th of Papelbons salary and is a top 10 closer when healthy

They traded Jed Lowrie for Melancon who is at the very least a lockdown 8th inning arm. Worst case hes a closer while Bailey is on the DL.

Right now you are looking at a rotation of Lester Beckett Buchholz Bard and Aceves. If Bard pans out then that is one of the best 1-4's in the game. I feel that Bard has matured as a pitcher since the minors so all of the people who are pointing to his single A stats as proof that he'll flop as a starter neglect to mention that was almost 5 years ago. The main thing for Bard will be stamina, can he adjust to throwing 160-180 innings a season? Can Aceves do the same? I firmly believe that while Boston has brought these middling options in to compete with Aceves for the 5th spot, they also brought them in to see who can take Aceves role from last season. One guy who not many fans have mentioned is Alex Wilson. While he does have a tendency to give up the long ball he did pitch quite a few clean innings in Portland and looked okay late in the year when he got promoted. If anything I would look at Wilson to be a dark horse for the long reliever job.

I think that people have allowed themselves to become enamored with making the big splash instead of doing whats best for the team overall. I'm not advocating anything the Sox have done this season at all, but give it a chance to play out. At this time last year people felt this team would win the World Series even if we traded Papelbon and put Bard into the closer role. What changed? The team isn't as bad as last year showed and wasn't as good as the media hyped them up to be. The hype has died down and the team is under the radar, I think we'll see a good season overall, especially from our beloved Popeye's bunch.

Then look at 3/5ths of the 2001 team's rotation. Nomo, Castillo and Cone were all coming off disappointing years when the Red Sox signed them and they were 1, 2, 3 on the team in innings. Cone was coming off a year in which he had a 6.91 ERA over 155 innings.

[SpruceTrap]

So we are starting the season with last years depth (Aceves who made 4 starts last year and adding Bard) making up 40% of our top 5. . Buchholz is returning from a season ending injury caused by a "congenital" back condition. Bard looks to be our #4 SP'er has had no sucess as a starter in the minors and who has had issues with fatigue as a reliever. Last year had an awful September with diminished velocity and a lower arm angle. Asking Bard to throw 160 IP w/o blowing out his arm is a real gamble. Then you have Aceves whom we are pencilling in at #5 who has a history of injury problems and was not very effective as a SP'er last year in only 4 starts.

He's much more likely to blow out his arm throwing 75 innings as a relief pitcher every year than he is throwing 150 innings as a starter. How many relievers can you name who are durable to pitch 70+ innings three years in a row?

[Sampo Gida]

He's much more likely to blow out his arm throwing 75 innings as a relief pitcher every year than he is throwing 150 innings as a starter. How many relievers can you name who are durable to pitch 70+ innings three years in a row?

Nick Massett, Sean Marshall, Carlos Marmol,Tim Worrell, David Weathers, Salomon Torres, Mike Timlin, Scot Shields, Mariano Rivera, David Riske, Paul Quantril, Chad Qualls, Braden Looper, Scitt Linebrink, etc, etc, etc,

Besides, nobody says he has to pitch 70+ innings.

I am not saying he should not be given a shot to start, but asking him to throw much more than 120 IP is a gamble. Medical science is not that precise.

Then look at 3/5ths of the 2001 team's rotation. Nomo, Castillo and Cone were all coming off disappointing years when the Red Sox signed them and they were 1, 2, 3 on the team in innings. Cone was coming off a year in which he had a 6.91 ERA over 155 innings.

All 3 were signed to be in the rotation (not minor league deals). Nomo made 31 starts in 2000. Castillo (3.59 ERA in 24 starts in 2000) was actually a good comp for Oswalt, but we did not sign him (yet). None of the guys we signed is close to what Castillo and Nomo were in 2000. Cone definitely exceeded expectations though. Too bad we lost Pedro for most of the year and had to give Tomo Ohkha, Kim, etc a bunch of starts.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

So thats the best forecast, partly sunny at best. If Beckett has another year like 2010, or Buchholz another year like last year, the forecast becomes quite gloomy. Every team has injuries, but the Red Sox have less of a cushion to withstand them this year than last year.

I don't really see this. It looks as if the team has tried to build some pitching depth to prevent what happened last year. Granted there aren't any big names but they're all guys with ML experience. Better than last years Weiland, Miller, Wake, and what could've been Chen. The health of our top 3 guys is going to be the biggest factor in the outcome of our season. We know that. The FO knows that. They also know what happened last year when our lack of depth was exposed, that's why we've been stockpiling re-treads. One or more of them has to produce.

[Tyrone Biggums]

Then look at 3/5ths of the 2001 team's rotation. Nomo, Castillo and Cone were all coming off disappointing years when the Red Sox signed them and they were 1, 2, 3 on the team in innings. Cone was coming off a year in which he had a 6.91 ERA over 155 innings.

Now THOSE were retreds....not Wells however. If I remember correctly, Cone didn't pitch that terrible for the Sox that year.

[Tyrone Biggums]

I don't really see this. It looks as if the team has tried to build some pitching depth to prevent what happened last year. Granted there aren't any big names but they're all guys with ML experience. Better than last years Weiland, Miller, Wake, and what could've been Chen. The health of our top 3 guys is going to be the biggest factor in the outcome of our season. We know that. The FO knows that. They also know what happened last year when our lack of depth was exposed, that's why we've been stockpiling re-treads. One or more of them has to produce.

Chen had a good year and could have been the difference if we had acquired him at the deadline. None of the guys we signed could have the impact the 2011 version of Chen did. I do agree health is the biggest factor and it will determine what direction the Red Sox will go in come July. I still believe the Sox should have investigated a trade with Atlanta to dangle Beckett and attempt to get a guy like Mike Minor in return (I'm sure we'd need another piece coming our way). I just don't trust that Becketts mental dependancy on having Varitek catch him will go away, or that even year Beckett won't show his ugly head this year.

Edited by Tyrone Biggums, 19 February 2012 - 10:29 AM.

[SpruceTrap]

Nick Massett, Sean Marshall, Carlos Marmol,Tim Worrell, David Weathers, Salomon Torres, Mike Timlin, Scot Shields, Mariano Rivera, David Riske, Paul Quantril, Chad Qualls, Braden Looper, Scitt Linebrink, etc, etc, etc,

Besides, nobody says he has to pitch 70+ innings.

I am not saying he should not be given a shot to start, but asking him to throw much more than 120 IP is a gamble. Medical science is not that precise.

You named two pitchers who have done it recently strictly as a reliever. Many of those pitchers are still around but no longer pitch 70 innings a season. I don't think pitching 150 innings as a starter is any more stressful on the arm than pitching 70+ innings as a reliever. When you're a starter your arm gets a chance to rest and heal four days out of five. You aren't brought in to pitch 2-3 days in a row at max effort.

All 3 were signed to be in the rotation (not minor league deals). Nomo made 31 starts in 2000. Castillo (3.59 ERA in 24 starts in 2000) was actually a good comp for Oswalt, but we did not sign him (yet). None of the guys we signed is close to what Castillo and Nomo were in 2000. Cone definitely exceeded expectations though. Too bad we lost Pedro for most of the year and had to give Tomo Ohkha, Kim, etc a bunch of starts.

If Cone doesn't fit the mold of a retread who worked out, no one does.

[SpruceTrap]

What about Felix Doubront? He will be 24 next year and has a 3.39 ERA in the upper minors.

Edited by SpruceTrap, 19 February 2012 - 11:13 AM.

[Tyrone Biggums]

What about Felix Doubront? He will be 24 next year and has a 3.39 ERA in the upper minors.

I have questions on if his stuff will translate to being anymore than a situational reliever. This isn't a bad thing at all as those are some of the pieces that are really overvalued by contenders at the deadline. If Doubront is nothing more than that then its one less need for this team come the trade deadline. If he is in shape then I would think all things being considered that Doubront is a lock to break camp, provided of course his numbers aren't horrendous in the spring. Even if they are not that great I would still put money on him to break camp.

[walkoffblast]

There could of course be some regression this year but the main difference between this year and last year is 2/5 of last years rotation is out with TJ surgery to start the season, and our 6th starter who made 23 starts last year retired.

Lackey, Matsuzaka and Wakefield might sound more impressive in theory but when you look at what they actually gave us last year it is hard to think them not being there to start the season is a reason that the pitching can't improve. They had an ERA+ of 66 in 160 innings, 81 in 37 innings and 83 in 154 innings respectively.

So we are starting the season with last years depth (Aceves who made 4 starts last year and adding Bard) making up 40% of our top 5. . Buchholz is returning from a season ending injury caused by a "congenital" back condition. Bard looks to be our #4 SP'er has had no sucess as a starter in the minors and who has had issues with fatigue as a reliever. Last year had an awful September with diminished velocity and a lower arm angle. Asking Bard to throw 160 IP w/o blowing out his arm is a real gamble. Then you have Aceves whom we are pencilling in at #5 who has a history of injury problems and was not very effective as a SP'er last year in only 4 starts.

Is it any worse than starting last year with Lackey's shoulder and Matsuzaka's question marks, especially given we know how that turned out? Maybe if you say we moved the depth to the rotation but if they only made 4 starts between the two of them how were they the primary SP depth? They were important to the bullpen but the Sox have acquired players to fill their spots in the bullpen. The rotation is more important than the bullpen anyway.

No more Wake, but we have Doubront who has had injury issues the past 2 years, Tazawa off TJ surgery, and Miller who has been awful and a collection of guys on minor league deals due to injuries and/or declining performance who are looking for a 2nd/last chance. Like last year, there are no prospects on the horizon to call up like Lester and Buchholz in years past. Daisuke will be back in July, but how effective he will be is anyones guess

Wakefield is obviously still going to be available if they need or more accurately want him. It is nice to have good prospects to call up but you can certainly have a good enough rotation without that uncommon occurence to your benefit. Last year the issue was the depth of these contigency plans. Now because they do have Tazawa, the 2nd chance guys and Daisuke for the second half there is more than just Miller to throw out there. Even if they had to use Miller he could likely approximate what Lackey gave us last year.

We have 2 guys in Lester and Beckett who had good years last year, but Beckett missed a lot of time in 2010 due to his back and has had issues (injury and/or performance) every August/Sept/Oct since 2007.

All pitching is variable. Maybe not Halladay but pretty much everyone else is going to have question marks. It doesn't make much sense to build a roster where you have 6+ 1-2 starters. Every team is dependent on their top pitchers staying relatively healthy. If they don't then it is hard to win it all. There is no depth that replaces such guys.

So thats the best forecast, partly sunny at best. If Beckett has another year like 2010, or Buchholz another year like last year, the forecast becomes quite gloomy. Every team has injuries, but the Red Sox have less of a cushion to withstand them this year than last year.

I still don't understand what the cushion was last year that isn't there this year? If it was that Lackey was throwing 160 innings of terrible pitching then I will gladly shed that cushion and gamble that any of the guys we have brought in could at worst match that. If it was Wakefield then why did the people that do this professionally choose not to sign him opposed to the other guys? Even if it did matter, you really think Wakefield won't start a game for this team if they ask him to? The SP on this team might be less certain but that is probably a good thing. The existence of an upside is a significant improvement. The existence of more guys to try as a 5th starter fill-in is an improvement.

[SpruceTrap]

Looks like Beckett's showed up to Spring Training with as big a beer gut as ever. He was wearing at least two undershirts in workouts this morning, probably so there wouldn't be any more pictures of his gut sticking out.

[MikeM]

Looks like Beckett's showed up to Spring Training with as big a beer gut as ever. He was wearing at least two undershirts in workouts this morning, probably so there wouldn't be any more pictures of his gut sticking out.

Yeah, after receiving the "Don't worry bro, Beckett is looking quite chubby atm LOL" text from my arch rival fan friend today, the first video clip i saw of him certainly generated a sigh.

[MikeM]

I still don't understand what the cushion was last year that isn't there this year?

Well for starters, and probably topping the list, at this time last year i was feeling a lot more confident then i am now in the overall probability of Clay Buchholz stepping up to be the 200ip frontline ace type we arguably need him to be.

Then there's the big picture difference in attempting to rationally draw the "we were just unlucky in 2010 with all the injuries" conclussion on the 1 year sample size, and trying to do the same now that the second year (and all it's conditioning and worst-choke-ever down the stretch drama) has been added to the mix.

You also mention the existence of upside, but i for one am not seeing where the improvement is coming in to play. I'm not personally sold on the Bard conversion being a good thing, and even in the event it does play out to be some 120ip or so "success", neither he or any of the current alternatives are presenting the same level of realistic upside many felt the Lackey/Matsuzaka combo was potentially bringing to last winter's table. Same on the flip side of that coin for that matter. I felt infinitely better last winter about the upside potential of our corner OF situation of Crawford/Drew then i do now with the Crawford/Sweeney/Ross mix.

Lastly, i get the need/importance/value of breaking down of everything that happened last year to it's statistical/war level. I really do, especially here of all places. But sometimes it seems the fact that we won't be stepping in a time machine and replaying the 2012 season in 2011 gets lost in the big picture presentation sum being made with that data. Or at least that's the thought that pops in my head everytime i see somebody hammering away on the focus value of the "default improvements", with claims on why that alone should all but certainly push last year's epic-choking 90 win team back to 95+ win/playoff status. There is just so many other potential variables in play beyond that with this team's makeup, before even going outside to factor in the (arguably) stiffer level of competition we now face, that the "fear not, we are going to suck a little less in these specific areas" rally cry essentially being made there just isn't coming across as all that awe-inspiring atm/imo.

[Sampo Gida]

I still don't understand what the cushion was last year that isn't there this year? If it was that Lackey was throwing 160 innings of terrible pitching then I will gladly shed that cushion and gamble that any of the guys we have brought in could at worst match that. If it was Wakefield then why did the people that do this professionally choose not to sign him opposed to the other guys? Even if it did matter, you really think Wakefield won't start a game for this team if they ask him to? The SP on this team might be less certain but that is probably a good thing. The existence of an upside is a significant improvement. The existence of more guys to try as a 5th starter fill-in is an improvement.

Well, last year you had 5 guys who in the unlikely event they had stayed healthy were able to give you 162 games of above league average pitching based on their career numbers. The biggest question mark was actually Beckett who some were calling our # 4 SPer with Clay as #2 SP'er, but you had Wake who had shown he could give you about 10 decent starts before fading in the 2nd half. After that, there were the same questions about depth as this year due to the lack of prospects at the high level who could step up.

This year you go into the season with 2 bonafide starters w/o health concerns. The only question mark for Beckett and Lester was if he would come to camp in shape, and from some of the comments, Beckett appears not to be in great shape ( I can not verify this). Also, Beckett will have to do without his personal catcher (Tek), and who knows what kind of adjustment that will be. Some regression from Beckett would be expected anyways.

Everyone else is a question mark really. Now maybe some of those question marks will turn out like Beckett did last year. Maybe. Quantity does not necessarily translate into quality. We could simply see a revolving door of one failure after another for reasons I already mentioned.

Much less of a cushion in my opinion.

Just matching or slightly improving on last years dismal performance may not be enough. The bullpen may be weaker with Paps, Bard and Aceves gone from the pen. Bailey has had an injury history and Melancon is untested in the AL East. I remember people talking about how Wheeler and Jenks were going to make the Red Sox pen the best in baseball. RP'ers are just so unpredictable. As for position players we have holes in RF and SS, and in LF Crawford is coming off wrist surgery, as is Youk at 3B. Papi and Jacoby may very well regress. It's quite possible that the team does not score as many runs as last year. Last year we were relatively fortunate in that the only key producer in the lineup that missed any significant time was Youk. (JD, Crawford and Scutaro were not producing at the time they went to the DL). Papi, A-Gon, Pedroia and Jacoby all were remarkably healthy as were our catchers whose importance was on the defensive side of the equation. We may not be so lucky in 2012.

Now maybe all or most of the question marks work out in a positive way, and no unexpected catastrophes happen, and the team will go on to win 95+ games. Right now, if you took each teams rosy prediction that the question marks all resolve themselves in a positive manner the average team wins 90 games. The reality is the average will be 81 games, and most teams will not live up to these rosy projections. It seems to be more reasonable at this time to expect the Red Sox to win 90 games this year than 95+.
j

[walkoffblast]

I am not saying this team is great or anything like that here (although I do think this team is better than most give it credit for). I am simply saying that there isn't much, if any, reason to expect the pitching to perform noticeably worse than what we actaully got last year. Expectations aren't worth much. Your expectations have been diminished directly as a result of what happened performance-wise last season. To be better than that this year all the pitching needs to do is to top those mostly deflating results. That isn't that hard. There were a lot of people second guessing Aceves not getting starts that Wakefield or others did down the stretch last year. I don't see any reason why trying that is doomed to produce a worse result. It actually seems like a smart thing to try. Bard is gamble but it isn't like they don't have other options to try if they decide to put him back in the pen. Maybe this isn't Bard's year to shine in the role but it would be quite valuable for the future if he took steps to get there this year. You can nitpick the negatives on the pitching staff just like people cherrypicked the positives going into last year. Neither is a good way of assessing what you have. The odds that every pitcher they have is going to perform to their downside is pretty much zero. Everyone seems to be overeacting to the Red Sox inabilty to create expectations with their moves this offseason, no matter how practical they are. Did we not learn anything from last season? I'm glad it appears that management did at least.

Edited by walkoffblast, 19 February 2012 - 11:57 PM.

[Sampo Gida]

I am not saying this team is great or anything like that here (although I do think this team is better than most give it credit for). I am simply saying that there isn't much, if any, reason to expect the pitching to perform noticeably worse than what we actaully got last year. Expectations aren't worth much. Your expectations have been diminished directly as a result of what happened performance-wise last season. To be better than that this year all the pitching needs to do is to top those mostly deflating results. That isn't that hard. There were a lot of people second guessing Aceves not getting starts that Wakefield or others did down the stretch last year. I don't see any reason why trying that is doomed to produce a worse result. It actually seems like a smart thing to try. Bard is gamble but it isn't like they don't have other options to try if they decide to put him back in the pen. Maybe this isn't Bard's year to shine in the role but it would be quite valuable for the future if he took steps to get there this year. You can nitpick the negatives on the pitching staff just like people cherrypicked the positives going into last year. Neither is a good way of assessing what you have. The odds that every pitcher they have is going to perform to their downside is pretty much zero. Everyone seems to be overeacting to the Red Sox inabilty to create expectations with their moves this offseason, no matter how practical they are. Did we not learn anything from last season? I'm glad it appears that management did at least.

I agree with much of what you said except what I bolded.

Expectations are simply a poor mans projection. Some are better than others. Some players will overperform, some underperform.

Management seems to be tied up with budget restrictions and bad contracts. Not sure they learned anything that we can see this offseason except from the Yankees, where they saw you can get lucky rolling the dice with reclamation projects. Having a depleted minor league system at the high levels for pitching allowed them to sign so many projects to minor league deals. If they had the money, I am pretty sure they would have spent it on EJ and kept Scutaro. They didn't. so we shall see how it all works out.

Frankly, I enjoy going into the regular season with a bunch of questions than having the greatest team ever that is a sure thing to win 100 games (and doesn't).

[MikeM]

I am simply saying that there isn't much, if any, reason to expect the pitching to perform noticeably worse than what we actaully got last year.

Yet at the same time, and outside that possibility of Buchholz staying healthy and finally putting up that full season of excellence we need out of him, do you feel just as strongly that the pitching staff (as a whole) should be expected to perform noticeably better?

Hypothetically speaking, say we see that marginal overall upgrade (since best case scenario that Bard/Aceves transition, even in success, still likely exposes a substanial chunk of innings that needs to be accounted for) out of the 4/5 spots this season, Lester is Lester, Beckett isn't quite as good as he was in 2011, and Buchholz manages to give us 150-160 innings. That being on top of a bullpen, that while not bad by any means, isn't quite up to par to what we got out of Papelbon/Bard/Aceves in 2011.

Does that potential prospect bring you back to a sense that we should be printing out the inevitable playoff tickets we are going to need come fall? Because that's where those dimished expections, well mine at least, resided at last winter.