I will mostly stay away from your offensive portion where we are pretty amazing overall, should get more ABs from Youk and more production from RF and LF.
But I don't think your pitching evaluation is tied to reality. This team that was one win away from the playoffs replaces the Clay injury, Dice-K and Lackey train wreck, the Wake endless quest for 200, and everything else that happened after Beckett and Lester with:
Bard: I'm still confused why people aren't more excited about him in this role. 2012 will be a transition and he won't really be trying to be a Weaver/Verlander type until 2013, but do you really think he won't give us more quality innings than his slot in the rotation last year, and then sometime around when Dice-K is back hit an innings limit and slot back in to the relief ace. I expect him to pitch 125-150 innings or so with a huge improvement over the Lackey rotation underbelly he is replacing, while Melancon doesn't have a huge drop off in the 70 innings he will replace.
Aceves: I expect some regression in the quality of his innings compared to his outstanding 2011, but he will improve on his career best 114 from last year, and can offer the starter reliever flexibility we need out of the 5th spot in the rotation, which will also help as Bard deals with an innings limit.
Buchholz: Anything can happen, but it is very likely we will get a lot more out of him than last year. You question him throwing 200 or even 180 innings. But even 160 would be an important 80 IP bump from last year when those innings were left to the the Clown Committee.
Lester/Beckett: I think Jon will rebound a little and Josh regress most likely, but their sum will be close to 400 top of the rotation innings and is likely to be fairly stable.
Dice-K: Never know how Tommy John rebounds go, but he pitched not a lot and hurt in the first half last year. When he returns he is likely to log more innings with better quality.
Other guys: We didn't get anything good out of any other starters, so it is not a longshot to think that one of our flyers or younger players will outperform as our fill in / 6th starter. Don't count out Padilla despite the baggage, although Cook, Silva, and Maine don't really seem like much.
Bullpen: Melancon/Bailey is worse than Bard/Papelbon, and Aceves will be missed when in the rotation, but I don't think the dropoff is as huge, and down the strech Bard will likely be back in the pen.
The Red Sox scored 875 runs last year, and should be in that neighborhood again. They allowed 737 runs, and I see that dropping significantly, and that will be enough for a team that needed a nightmare April and September to finish one inning away from the playoffs.
Beckett has had health issues, and has not finished strong in September/October since 2007.
Buchholz had what was called a congenital back condition that caused his back problems, and his ability to throw 200 P, or. even 180 IP is a big question mark.
Bard has never started in the MLB and his September swoon makes you wonder how many innings he can give you.
Aceves also has an injury history with back problems prior to last year.
That's just the rotation. Bailey has not thrown more than 42 IP in a season the past 2 years with elbow problems.