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How to rebuild this rotation?


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#51 MikeM

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Posted 21 October 2011 - 08:54 PM

I think Jackson is the best buy at #4 in the Sox rotation at 3 years $27-30 million. We may have to add a fourth year to get him (he's in his prime, he would be worth it)


After CJ Wilson, he's also arguably the best runner-up option on very short list of available FA starters, with no shortage of potential suitors out there looking to make an "impact" addition to their starting rotation. So while i get/expect the initial need to throw around low-balled #'s entering every winter, let's keep it real here for a second, as somewhere Scott Boras (who's his agent, if you didn't know) just got quite the laugh out of that proposal. Aka: even more so then was the case with Adrian Beltre last winter (before we dealt for Adrian Gonzalez), it's pretty safe bet that the 28 year old Jackson is going to command more then 3 years on the open market. Or even 9-10m/per for that matter.

In fact, if one isn't prepared to entertain even the casual possibility of putting something like a 5year/$60m contract on the table, it's probably best to just dismiss the concept of Edwin Jackson out of your head altogether imo. Right now and from the get-go.

#52 untilthebombs

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Posted 21 October 2011 - 11:35 PM

Please no Wandy. Edwin Jackson scares me as he will get the 5 year commitment mention above, but yet for all that he's been moved around, he's been quite valuable over the last three years (19th in Fangraphs WAR, 31 in B-Ref), and depending on how SS and 3B turn out defensively, his decreasing FB%, increasing GB% is intriguing.

#53 wine111

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Posted 22 October 2011 - 04:17 AM

Please no Wandy. Edwin Jackson scares me as he will get the 5 year commitment mention above, but yet for all that he's been moved around, he's been quite valuable over the last three years (19th in Fangraphs WAR, 31 in B-Ref), and depending on how SS and 3B turn out defensively, his decreasing FB%, increasing GB% is intriguing.


You are scared by Edwin Jackson and Wandy Rodriguez? After enduring Wakefield and Lackey last year? Rodriguez and Jackson are leaps and bounds better than those two pitchers. It's not our money. The Red Sox have been beaten by Tampa Bay in three of the last four years due to our #4 and 5 pitchers being way too weak and not only blowing games as starters, but exhausting our bullpen by throwing too few innings. We really don't need Lackey back. We need to move on from a pitcher who will get blasted again next year. These other retreads like Andrew Miller and Erik Bedard are wastes of time. Tazawa and Wilson are not ready to be major league starters right now (they may well prove to be bullpen arms only). We need to acquire two legitimate major league starters (no Lackey) and at least two bullpen arms to effectively compete. With the approach of grabbing bargain basement starters again for the 4 and 5 spots, say hello to third place.

It is a waste to have this expensive a roster and not take the final few steps to make a real attempt to get to the post season. We can let Papelbon, Ortiz, Varitek and Drew walk and have the money we need to sign Edwin Jackson and pay for Wandy Rodriguez plus a couple of bullpen arms. I see no reason for all the angst about Wandy Rodriguez. He shows all the signs of being able to help this club as the #5 starter behind Jackson. We don't need a world beater in the 5 spot, but in this division we need an established major league starter with a solid track record and Rodriguez has that. You think Red Sox fans will settle for third place next year? The lightning in a bottle approach for the last two starter spots begs for failure. And we need two or three solid bullpen arms in addition to the two starters to fill out this bullpen.

The bad taste from last year requires effective action this off season from the Red Sox. More retread starting pitchers being signed will cause annoyance, not excitement, for next year's team. Wow, Jeff Francis (14-32 since 2008) and Aaron Harang (a fly ball pitcher in Fenway!) Gag. Rich Harden and Bruce Chen. First we have Mr. Injury and then the pitcher we had before thank you very much and he's 35 years old with a two year performance (12 wins per year) while not pitching his home games in Fenway Park. No pressure pitching in KC. He got to 150 innings pitched for only the second time in his career in 2011. And no Green Monster to worry about. No thank you Mr. Chen. I know he won 13 in 2005 and then had exactly one win over the next four years. Chris Capuano is better than the four I just mentioned, but any pitcher in the National League with a career earned run average of 4.39 trying to compete in Fenway is far from encouraging.

Wandy Rodriguez is 4.07, but his last four years have been significantly better. I see nothing from Wandy that gets me concerned. He's a pitcher who had early career issues and has turned into a legitimate starter in the major leagues. He won 11 games each of the last two years with an awful Astros ball club. He tends to be streaky, but he should still win more in Boston.

Edited by wine111, 25 October 2011 - 05:11 AM.


#54 untilthebombs

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Posted 22 October 2011 - 11:56 AM

You are scared by Edwin Jackson and Wandy Rodriguez? After enduring Wakefield and Lackey last year? Rodriguez and Jackson are leaps and bounds better than those two pitchers. It's not our money.


Wandy would likely have to be traded for, likely for near MLB ready prospects (as that was Houston's request for Pence/Bourn) meaning depleting an already depleted high minor league system. That either player may be an improvement in the short team, does not make them worth the prospects or long term financial commitment. The Red Sox do not commit a finite amount of money to payroll each year, it's a question of how best to use that payroll, not whether or not it's "our money."

The Red Sox have been beaten by Tampa Bay in three of the last four years due to our #4 and 5 pitchers being way too weak and not only blowing games as starters, but exhausting our bullpen by throwing too few innings.


It's a group effort. Red Sox hitters against TB last year: .189, .276, .340.

While the Red Sox were 5th in relief IP last year, they were also 21st in appearances. The total relief IP are deceiving because it wasn't a case like ATL where they turned to the 7th/8th/9th innings guys almost without fail, wearing them down, they had there long man in Aceves going nearly 2 innings an appearance to save the rest of the pen. There were no signs of the bullpen being worn down. Papelbon and Aceves were as good at the end of the year as they were at the beginning. Bard was either injured or messed up his delivery.

We really don't need Lackey back. We need to move on from a pitcher who will get blasted again next year. These other retreads like Andrew Miller and Erik Bedard are wastes of time. Tazawa and Wilson are not ready to be major league starters right now (they may well prove to be bullpen arms only). We need to acquire two legitimate major league starters (no Lackey) and at least two bullpen arms to effectively compete. With the approach of grabbing bargain basement starters again for the 4 and 5 spots, say hello to third place.


It is a waste to have this expensive a roster and not take the final few steps to make a real attempt to get to the post season. We can let Papelbon, Ortiz, Varitek and Drew walk and have the money we need to sign Edwin Jackson and pay for Wandy Rodriguez plus a couple of bullpen arms. I see no reason for all the angst about Wandy Rodriguez. He shows all the signs of being able to help this club as the #5 starter behind Jackson. We don't need a world beater in the 5 spot, but in this division we need an established major league starter with a solid track record and Rodriguez has that. You think Red Sox fans will settle for third place next year? The lightning in a bottle approach for the last two starter spots begs for failure. And we need two or three solid bullpen arms in addition to the two starters to fill out this bullpen.

The bad taste from last year requires effective action this off season from the Red Sox. More retread starting pitchers being signed will cause annoyance, not excitement, for next year's team. Wow, Jeff Francis (14-32 since 2008) and Aaron Harang (a fly ball pitcher in Fenway!) Gag. Rich Harden and Bruce Chen. First we have Mr. Injury and then the pitcher we had before thank you very much and he's 35 years old with a two year performance (12 wins per year) while not pitching his home games in Fenway Park. No pressure pitching in KC. He got to 150 innings pitched for only the second time in his career in 2011. And no Green Monster to worry about. No thank you Mr. Chen. I know he won 13 in 2005 and then had exactly one win over the next four years. Chris Capuano is better than the four I just mentioned, but any pitcher in the National League with a career earned run average of 4.39 trying to compete in Fenway is far from encouraging. Wandy Rodriguez is 4.07, but his last four years have been significantly better. I see nothing from Wandy that gets me concerned. He's a pitcher who had early career issues and has turned into a legitimate starter in the major leagues. He won 11 games each of the last two years with an awful Astros ball club. He tends to be streaky, but he should still win more in Boston.



I don't have a problem with a lot of this stuff. So I'm not gonna nitpick small differences of opinion. Just in response to Wandy, if we could just take his salary and throw in some low A guys with projected limited upside, I might be on board. He doesn't strike me though as an NL guy that you know could make the transition to the AL. His K% and BB% have steadily taken a hit over the last four years. His GB/FB rate isn't particularly good. If it's just money, I could live with that since he's only got 2/3 years left on his deal, with the 3rd year being a club option that can become guaranteed based on performance, though with a buyout available.

#55 BeantownIdaho

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Posted 22 October 2011 - 01:51 PM

1. Either trade Lackey to SD for whatever you can get for him in terms of cash...it's a huge cash loss but we don't have to see him pitch every 5 days. The only other hope for him is the next pitching coach since Curt Young went back to the A's. If someone can straighten him out that would be a miracle.

2. Move Aceves to the starting rotation...not Aceves and Bard both. Aceves is the best candidate here given the uncertainty of Paplebon and not wanting to deplete the pen.

3. Buehrle....if he is available for a decent 2-3 year deal I would do that. The guy is just what boston needs...a bottom of the order consistent innings eater. With the number of arms thrown into the #4 and #5 spot last year it would be great to have a consistent guy there who has had 11 straight 200 inning seasons (knock on wood).

4. Sorry Wake...you're a great guy...Boston icon...but I can't suffer through next season just so you can get the record.

1 - Lester
2 - Beckett
3 - Buch
4 - Aceves
5 - Buehrle

To me that's a decent starting five that when healthy (key) could win it all...throw in a little bullpen help and leave some kids in Pawtucket ready to contribute and I think we would be ok.

#56 mBiferi

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Posted 22 October 2011 - 02:47 PM

I think the best approach to make this rotation better is... not doing much.

Beckett, Lester and Buchholz are your 1-2-3 guys, that's pretty damn strong core.

You can't trade Lackey without giving up 40 millions, so what's the point? I'm actually confident that he can pitch to a 4.30 ERA next year, and that's all you need from your 5 starter. Put Aceves in the rotation and you have a pretty strong rotation. Get some reclamation projects as Bedard, etc. to have some depth. If Wake is willing to be the mop up guy/7th starter then fine, bring him back, he's actually useful in that role.

Just stay away from Jackson and C.J. Wilson... and ban the beer from the clubhouse.

#57 ivanvamp


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Posted 24 October 2011 - 08:13 PM

I think the best approach to make this rotation better is... not doing much.

Beckett, Lester and Buchholz are your 1-2-3 guys, that's pretty damn strong core.

You can't trade Lackey without giving up 40 millions, so what's the point? I'm actually confident that he can pitch to a 4.30 ERA next year, and that's all you need from your 5 starter. Put Aceves in the rotation and you have a pretty strong rotation. Get some reclamation projects as Bedard, etc. to have some depth. If Wake is willing to be the mop up guy/7th starter then fine, bring him back, he's actually useful in that role.

Just stay away from Jackson and C.J. Wilson... and ban the beer from the clubhouse.


Roy Oswalt's option was not picked up by Philly. Given his age, he'll probably not command more than about $13 million a year. He's a proven guy who probably still has a couple of more good years left. Not CYA type years, but in the AL East I figure he would pitch to a high 3's era. Definitely someone they should at least look into.

#58 untilthebombs

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Posted 24 October 2011 - 08:27 PM

Roy Oswalt's option was not picked up by Philly. Given his age, he'll probably not command more than about $13 million a year. He's a proven guy who probably still has a couple of more good years left. Not CYA type years, but in the AL East I figure he would pitch to a high 3's era. Definitely someone they should at least look into.


He's at least worth a look, but his back, and drop in K/9 by 2, is worrisome. Solid FB% and low LD% probably boost his value a bit. How much though would depend on what the left side of the infield looks like next year. A team of Youkilis and Lowrie wouldn't do much to take advantage of the GBs.

#59 chester

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Posted 25 October 2011 - 04:09 AM

1. Either trade Lackey to SD for whatever you can get for him in terms of cash...it's a huge cash loss but we don't have to see him pitch every 5 days. The only other hope for him is the next pitching coach since Curt Young went back to the A's. If someone can straighten him out that would be a miracle.

2. Move Aceves to the starting rotation...not Aceves and Bard both. Aceves is the best candidate here given the uncertainty of Paplebon and not wanting to deplete the pen.

3. Buehrle....if he is available for a decent 2-3 year deal I would do that. The guy is just what boston needs...a bottom of the order consistent innings eater. With the number of arms thrown into the #4 and #5 spot last year it would be great to have a consistent guy there who has had 11 straight 200 inning seasons (knock on wood).



I know its near blasphemous but I am giving Lackey another shot. If it was an injury (which a lot of signs point to) and it can be corrected this offseason we could see a complete change in his ability for the better. Being healthy and the massive chip he should have on his shoulder after all the BS last year should drive him to put together a good season.

As far as moving Aceves to the rotation I would not do that unless absolutely necessary sometime in the season. He was stellar in his role, and for the same reason I leave Bard in his spot I would keep him where we know he is very effective.

I couldn't agree more about your take on Buehrle. The guy is a workhorse, and fans will love the pace with which he pitches (think opposite of Beckett). Besides being an innings eater he really has the potential to throw up a very good season of 15-18 wins with a ~3.5 ERA. My only concerns about Buehrle are his splits at Fenway (around a 5 ERA) and his numbers against the Yankees (1-8 with a 6.38 ERA). Now these numbers are not due to a SSS either, unfortunately, but I believe that they can be turned around somewhat.

So the question for Buehrle is cost. Id do 2/24.

#60 chester

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Posted 25 October 2011 - 04:18 AM

He's at least worth a look, but his back, and drop in K/9 by 2, is worrisome. Solid FB% and low LD% probably boost his value a bit. How much though would depend on what the left side of the infield looks like next year. A team of Youkilis and Lowrie wouldn't do much to take advantage of the GBs.


He is absolutely worth a look. I am a little worried about his health but I think over the last few years it has been shown that you can never have enough starting pitching. And having a 6 man rotation (maybe even resting Oswalt extra) would allow for a less taxing season for him and could help him get through it.

Like I said above - NEVER enough starting pitching - and at this point I would just collect starting pitchers like it was my job if I were Cherrington and along wtih Buehrle and maybe one other FA pickup the Sox could have a rotation of:
1. Lester
2. Beckett
3. Buchholz
4. Buehrle
5. Oswalt
6. Lackey

Edit: Oh yeah, and John Farrell as our new manager (maybe wishful thinking)

Edited by chester, 25 October 2011 - 04:20 AM.


#61 wine111

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Posted 25 October 2011 - 05:36 AM

He is absolutely worth a look. I am a little worried about his health but I think over the last few years it has been shown that you can never have enough starting pitching. And having a 6 man rotation (maybe even resting Oswalt extra) would allow for a less taxing season for him and could help him get through it.

Like I said above - NEVER enough starting pitching - and at this point I would just collect starting pitchers like it was my job if I were Cherrington and along wtih Buehrle and maybe one other FA pickup the Sox could have a rotation of:
1. Lester
2. Beckett
3. Buchholz
4. Buehrle
5. Oswalt
6. Lackey

Edit: Oh yeah, and John Farrell as our new manager (maybe wishful thinking)


Mark Buehrle has struggled pitching in Fenway Park and against the Yankees. I think he knows that and will stay away from Boston, which is good for us. He will not get away with giving up so many hits in Fenway against A.L. East hitters. He has also always wanted to pitch in St. Louis and if he doesn't resign with the White Sox, the odds are strong that he will sign with St. Louis. Roy Oswalt is someone I would be willing to give a shot to. Lackey is just lost in Boston and his stuff is just not good enough to be kept. We are concerned about winning and you don't do that by keeping or acquiring ineffective pitchers.

Either Edwin Jackson or Wandy Rodriguez as #5 behind Oswalt should work well. Jackson is getting more ground balls, has a really good arm and is in his prime (all elements that suggest he may develop into a 15 game winner). It's just a consistency issue with Jackson now. I prefer Jackson to Rodriguez because he's younger and he's right handed (better for Fenway pitchers). Oswalt and Jackson have the stuff to make the bottom of the rotation solid. Forget Aceves and Bard (as has been suggested elsewhere on this thread). They are needed in the bullpen, which is in need of some new arms even with Aceves and Bard staying there. And they are unproven as major league starters and the Red Sox have been using that type of pitcher in the 4 and 5 spots for the last several years. That has resulted in us looking up at the Tampa Bay Rays in the standings in three of the last four years. Get two (not one) proven arms to fill out this rotation and two more to reinforce the bullpen. We can worry about offense after those acquisitions.

#62 untilthebombs

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Posted 25 October 2011 - 04:22 PM

So 2/5 of the rotation is out for 2012. Missed the press conference, but per a blurb on NESN, "The priority this winter will be adding pitching depth and finding a high-value arm, much like they did with Alfredo Aceves last year." Really going to be interesting to watch where this rotation heads. Outside of Wilson, the pitching free agent market includes just a handful of solid mid to backend guys, than a ton of players with serious question marks.

With Drew, and possibly Ortiz and Papelbon off the books, Reddick and Kalish competing for RF (per the same NESN post), reducing the likelihood of committing significant money to that position, and Dice-K unsigned past 2012, they've got some real money to work with, but no one to spend it on. Here's to hoping they bring backPapelbon for 3, Ortiz for no more than 2, and wait out on any FA pitchers that require more than 3 year deals until the next "sure thing" hits the market.

#63 chester

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Posted 25 October 2011 - 05:36 PM

Mark Buehrle has struggled pitching in Fenway Park and against the Yankees. I think he knows that and will stay away from Boston, which is good for us. He will not get away with giving up so many hits in Fenway against A.L. East hitters. He has also always wanted to pitch in St. Louis and if he doesn't resign with the White Sox, the odds are strong that he will sign with St. Louis. Roy Oswalt is someone I would be willing to give a shot to. Lackey is just lost in Boston and his stuff is just not good enough to be kept. We are concerned about winning and you don't do that by keeping or acquiring ineffective pitchers.



Despite Buehrle's struggles in the AL East I would take a chance on him if the price was right, but you are probably right that he will stay away from here.

Oswalt is someone we have to look at, but look at without being desperate. I am worried about his ability to pitch a whole season in the AL (he has spent his whole career in the NL). If we were to get him not only would the price have to be in our favor but the rotation would need the cushion of two extra starters to allow for them to rest Oswalt throughout the season and not have him starting every 5th day.

#64 Cellar-Door


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Posted 25 October 2011 - 05:39 PM

Mark Buehrle has struggled pitching in Fenway Park and against the Yankees. I think he knows that and will stay away from Boston, which is good for us. He will not get away with giving up so many hits in Fenway against A.L. East hitters. He has also always wanted to pitch in St. Louis and if he doesn't resign with the White Sox, the odds are strong that he will sign with St. Louis. Roy Oswalt is someone I would be willing to give a shot to. Lackey is just lost in Boston and his stuff is just not good enough to be kept. We are concerned about winning and you don't do that by keeping or acquiring ineffective pitchers.

Either Edwin Jackson or Wandy Rodriguez as #5 behind Oswalt should work well. Jackson is getting more ground balls, has a really good arm and is in his prime (all elements that suggest he may develop into a 15 game winner). It's just a consistency issue with Jackson now. I prefer Jackson to Rodriguez because he's younger and he's right handed (better for Fenway pitchers). Oswalt and Jackson have the stuff to make the bottom of the rotation solid. Forget Aceves and Bard (as has been suggested elsewhere on this thread). They are needed in the bullpen, which is in need of some new arms even with Aceves and Bard staying there. And they are unproven as major league starters and the Red Sox have been using that type of pitcher in the 4 and 5 spots for the last several years. That has resulted in us looking up at the Tampa Bay Rays in the standings in three of the last four years. Get two (not one) proven arms to fill out this rotation and two more to reinforce the bullpen. We can worry about offense after those acquisitions.

I don't see us shelling out the money Jackson is going to get to make him our 5th starter, Wandy could be interesting, but I'm not sure what you trade for him as he will be in demand with the weak free agent class. I'd like to see them explore Oswalt as an option, and resign Bedard. I don't see any of the big money guys as a fit except perhaps Darvish.

#65 doubrontsneighbor

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Posted 25 October 2011 - 05:49 PM

To me, a rotation of Lester, Beckett, Buchholz is solid, with a number 4 of bard, and 5 F doubront. the bullpen is what needs to be replaced. the rotation minus Lackey and some of the starters being spelled by Dice K in late Aug and tazawa, can do very well in the Al East. I also think Bowden and Wieland are ready to give quality innings in the bullpen. I would still like to see E. Jackson if cheap enough.

#66 ivanvamp


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Posted 25 October 2011 - 07:20 PM

Ok, now that Lackey is out for the year with TJ, and Dice-K is out until at least August, we can just consider those two as sunk costs that cannot really be recouped for this year. So, plan accordingly and be willing to spend some money.

The offense, even though it was sporadic in September, was one of the very best in the league. I don't expect Ellsbury to have this kind of year again, but I do expect Crawford to get better. Personally, I favor letting Papi walk and signing Willingham for depth and because he's a RHH. So:

C - Salty, Lavarnway
IF - Gonzalez, Pedroia, Scutaro, Youkilis, Aviles, need to add one more IF
OF - Crawford, Ellsbury, Willingham, Reddick, Kalish, MacDonald(?)

Rotate the DH among Lavarnway, Ellsbury, Crawford, Willingham, Youkilis....whoever needs a break or has a particularly good matchup. I think Willingham will save the Sox some $$ over Ortiz. A lineup of...

CF Ellsbury
2b Pedroia
1b Gonzalez
3b Youkilis
LF Crawford
DH Willingham
RF Reddick
C Saltalamacchia
SS Scutaro

...should still score a ton of runs.

As for the pitching, I bet they keep Beckett (despite some noise here about trading him). He won't be as good as he was this year, but he should be ok. Lester, I believe, will have a big season, with the lessons *hopefully* learned from this year. And Clay will help. We need, IMO, 3 more starters.

1. Oswalt. Free agent, still solid. His age and recent injuries should keep his price down somewhat. Spend the $13 million per year for a couple of years for him.

2. Take a shot at either Hideki Kuroda or Paul Maholm. Kuroda is 36 but has had four good years in the majors (era+ of 112, 106, 114, and 121). Maholm is 29, had a horrible 6-14 record in 2011, but had a 3.66 era (105 era+) with a respectable 1.29 whip. Definitely a guy who would have some value in the back of a rotation.

3. As a totally different idea, make a major play for Brandon Beachy of Atlanta. They already have Hudson, Jurrjens, Hanson, and Lowe, with uber prospects Delgado and Teheran on the way, and other young quality arms there as well (Medlen, Vizcaino, Martinez). They also really need hitting. The rumor is that they're not happy with Jason Heyward, so the Sox could try something like this:

Sox give: Youkilis (Chipper moves back to OF), Reddick/Kalish (Atlanta's choice), Bowden, and another prospect in Boston's 5-10 range.
Braves give: Beachy, Heyward

Atlanta gets a huge offensive upgrade (Heyward to Youks is a big improvement - Heyward had an ops+ of 95; Youks was 123), 3 young players to throw into the system or deal for other needs, and they have tons of great young arms to replace Beachy with (Medlen or Minor, for example, could step right into their rotation next year without difficulty). For Boston, they get a RF with huge potential and a really exciting young pitcher. It would leave a hole at 3b that they'd then have to fill, but there are some options there as well (Wilson Betemit, for example, as a placeholder for Middlebrooks).

#67 BeantownIdaho

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Posted 25 October 2011 - 08:46 PM

Given Cheri's statements today, the Sox will look to build pitching depth and could go for buy-low acquisitions. With that in mind I am doubtful that the sox pay big money for a 4-5 starter type. It's a given that 1-3 are set for next year...but who will some of his buy-low acquisitions be? Jon Garland? Prior to this year he was durable and had at least 32 starts for 9 straight years. Bedard? Will he come back to Boston? Harden? Francis? As far as the bullpen goes do they take a chance on Joe Nathan? Or does he turn into another Boobie Jenks?

#68 Cellar-Door


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Posted 25 October 2011 - 10:10 PM

. Take a shot at either Hideki Kuroda or Paul Maholm. Kuroda is 36 but has had four good years in the majors (era+ of 112, 106, 114, and 121). Maholm is 29, had a horrible 6-14 record in 2011, but had a 3.66 era (105 era+) with a respectable 1.29 whip. Definitely a guy who would have some value in the back of a rotation.

3. As a totally different idea, make a major play for Brandon Beachy of Atlanta.


Kuroda has made it clear he is either pitching for LA or going back to Japan. Maholm isn't a free agent yet, word is the Pirates might exercise his option .

As to the trade, there is no way Atlanta has even the least interest in that deal. They trade a 22 year old who is one year removed from a 131 Ops+ who isn't even arbitration eligible, and a 25 year old pitcher who just had an xFIP of 3.19 who isn't arbitration eligible for 2 more years. They get back an aging injury prone 3B around below average defensively and makes $12M the first year with a $13M option. And a pupu platter of AAAA guys? Bowden has no options and wouldn't' even make their roster. Reddick isn't much of a prize, and in your scenario (Chipper to the outfield) probably isn't even an everyday starter.
Why would Atlanta do this the they could just sign Aramis Ramirez or Josh Willingham? It costs them the same money, maybe less, and they keep two top talents.

#69 plucy

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Posted 25 October 2011 - 11:29 PM

Derek Lowe is probably on the blocks. Still a groundball pitcher, although more reliant on his slider and cutter. He's due $15MM so ATL would probably eat a significant chunk as he doesn't appear to have a place in their rotation. Still threw 187 innings, 3.70 FIP, 3.65 xFIP. As a fourth or fifth starter for $5-7 MM he's worth a shot. A Hazelbaker-type might interest ATL with their constant search for OF. Maybe Youk could DH on his starts to shore up the infield D with Aviles or Lowrie.

Always been a big D-Lowe fan. That seventh game start in the 04 ALCS on two days rest was never given its proper place as a hallmark performance in that series, bumped by Papi, Schilling,Roberts and Damon.

Ok back on topic. Lowe's return might also assuage some fan turmoil after September. Definitely not the same worm-killer but could still be effective for a relatively cheap price.

#70 chester

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Posted 26 October 2011 - 03:33 AM

Derek Lowe is probably on the blocks. Still a groundball pitcher, although more reliant on his slider and cutter. He's due $15MM so ATL would probably eat a significant chunk as he doesn't appear to have a place in their rotation. Still threw 187 innings, 3.70 FIP, 3.65 xFIP. As a fourth or fifth starter for $5-7 MM he's worth a shot. A Hazelbaker-type might interest ATL with their constant search for OF. Maybe Youk could DH on his starts to shore up the infield D with Aviles or Lowrie.

Always been a big D-Lowe fan. That seventh game start in the 04 ALCS on two days rest was never given its proper place as a hallmark performance in that series, bumped by Papi, Schilling,Roberts and Damon.

Ok back on topic. Lowe's return might also assuage some fan turmoil after September. Definitely not the same worm-killer but could still be effective for a relatively cheap price.


As much as I loved Lowe for what he did for us, and not just in 2004 but his whole tenure here (and trust me nothing he did has been under-unappreciated by me), you can not bring him back for those reasons. He has consistently gotten worse over the last few years in a pitcher friendly ballpark. He has had a 4.57 ERA over the last 3 seasons and when his team needed him the most this past season he put up a horrible game to cap of the Braves terrible collapse. I hate to pile on the guy but in September when they needed him the most (as Sox fans should be the first to understand) he went 0-5 with an 8.75 ERA. Like I said, I will never forget what Lowe brought to this team from 97-04 and maybe we shouldn't have gotten rid of him at the time but he is not an effective pitcher anymore.

#71 chester

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Posted 26 October 2011 - 03:42 AM

To me, a rotation of Lester, Beckett, Buchholz is solid, with a number 4 of bard, and 5 F doubront. the bullpen is what needs to be replaced. the rotation minus Lackey and some of the starters being spelled by Dice K in late Aug and tazawa, can do very well in the Al East. I also think Bowden and Wieland are ready to give quality innings in the bullpen. I would still like to see E. Jackson if cheap enough.


First of all Doubront is not being penciled in as part of the initial starting 5 or even 6. He could very well make a spot start here or there, but I think they will have someone else for that too.

I've heard a lot of talk about moving Bard and Aceves into the rotation as well. I just don't understand this logic. They are great in their roles in the pen and instead of moving them to the rotation and not know whether they will work there and bringing in guys to replace them in the pen not knowing how they will do why doesn't the FO just target quality SP who have a track record of starting and leave those guys alone where they have been successful. Im not saying the pen is completely fine as well, but at least with Bard, Aceves and Pap (I hope) we have the foundation to build around.

Now I am willing to give both Weiland and Bowden a chance in the bullpen, as well as Doubront and just about anyone who is ready on in the farm system.

Edited by chester, 26 October 2011 - 03:43 AM.


#72 ivanvamp


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Posted 26 October 2011 - 04:59 AM

As to the trade, there is no way Atlanta has even the least interest in that deal. They trade a 22 year old who is one year removed from a 131 Ops+ who isn't even arbitration eligible, and a 25 year old pitcher who just had an xFIP of 3.19 who isn't arbitration eligible for 2 more years. They get back an aging injury prone 3B around below average defensively and makes $12M the first year with a $13M option. And a pupu platter of AAAA guys? Bowden has no options and wouldn't' even make their roster. Reddick isn't much of a prize, and in your scenario (Chipper to the outfield) probably isn't even an everyday starter.
Why would Atlanta do this the they could just sign Aramis Ramirez or Josh Willingham? It costs them the same money, maybe less, and they keep two top talents.


I don't think it has much of a chance of happening, obviously, but I'd at least give it a try. To answer your question: Yes, you make some very good points. I think they might consider it because Youkilis is a huge upgrade offensively for them. And they have a ridiculous amount of young arms in their system that they could easily withstand losing one of them. The rumor at the end of the year was that they were looking to move Heyward, so that's where I got that idea.

Beachy, btw, isn't one of the guys that anyone listed as a top prospect. Here's a sampling of "Braves top prospects" lists for 2009 and 2010 and tell me if you see Beachy anywhere:

http://www.minorleag...ves-top-20-pros (12 pitchers, no Beachy)
http://www.baseballa...009/267345.html
http://www.talkingch...d-season-top-25
http://www.talkingch...ed-top-25-brave
http://www.talkingch...op-25-prospects
http://www.baseball-...ts-2010-part-2/
http://capitolavenue....com/?page_id=8 (ok this is a top prospects for *2011*, and Beachy comes in #11. For 2011.)
http://milbprospects...-prospects.html
http://www.fangraphs...p-10-prospects/
http://www.fangraphs...atlanta-braves/

The point is this: Beachy was not a prized prospect. Sure, he had a great season this year and looks like he has a lot of ability, and that matters far more than prospect lists. Granted. But my thought is that maybe they think, well, sure, he's good, but we never thought *that* much of him for a reason...maybe now would be a good time to sell high, given what we have coming through the system.

Like I said, almost certainly wouldn't happen, but I'd at least pick up the phone. I'd do it without the Heyward piece if I'm the Red Sox.

#73 Cellar-Door


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Posted 26 October 2011 - 12:38 PM

I don't think it has much of a chance of happening, obviously, but I'd at least give it a try. To answer your question: Yes, you make some very good points. I think they might consider it because Youkilis is a huge upgrade offensively for them. And they have a ridiculous amount of young arms in their system that they could easily withstand losing one of them. The rumor at the end of the year was that they were looking to move Heyward, so that's where I got that idea.

Beachy, btw, isn't one of the guys that anyone listed as a top prospect. Here's a sampling of "Braves top prospects" lists for 2009 and 2010 and tell me if you see Beachy anywhere:

http://www.minorleag...ves-top-20-pros (12 pitchers, no Beachy)
http://www.baseballa...009/267345.html
http://www.talkingch...d-season-top-25
http://www.talkingch...ed-top-25-brave
http://www.talkingch...op-25-prospects
http://www.baseball-...ts-2010-part-2/
http://capitolavenue....com/?page_id=8 (ok this is a top prospects for *2011*, and Beachy comes in #11. For 2011.)
http://milbprospects...-prospects.html
http://www.fangraphs...p-10-prospects/
http://www.fangraphs...atlanta-braves/

The point is this: Beachy was not a prized prospect. Sure, he had a great season this year and looks like he has a lot of ability, and that matters far more than prospect lists. Granted. But my thought is that maybe they think, well, sure, he's good, but we never thought *that* much of him for a reason...maybe now would be a good time to sell high, given what we have coming through the system.

Like I said, almost certainly wouldn't happen, but I'd at least pick up the phone. I'd do it without the Heyward piece if I'm the Red Sox.

Just because the Braves are loaded at pitcher and Beachy wasn't on prospect lists doesn't mean they'll give him away. You are talking about the Braves trading two $50's for a $10 and a handful of change. Their team would be significantly better for the same money if they signed Aramis Ramirez. If they truly wanted to trade either Heyward or Beachy they could get so much more Youkilis couldn't get either of those guys solo, they are much more valuable commodities.
Background on Beachy, he was signed as an undrafted free agent, and tore through the Braves system, ended up as their #8 prospect going into the year. He also was 7th in XFIP among starters with at least 140 IP, and 13th In FIP. All that under control for 6 more years. He's one of the most valuable commodities in the league

Edited by Cellar-Door, 26 October 2011 - 12:40 PM.


#74 Minneapolis Millers

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Posted 26 October 2011 - 05:15 PM

I'm hoping Cherington goes back to the Original Theo approach of finding cast-offs and diamonds-in-the-rough. Bring in multiple starters - 3 or 4 - to compete for 2 spots, along with in-house candidates like Dubront, Tazawa, (Wakefield??), etc. One trade target I'd like to see them go for, at a reasonable acquisition cost, is Kevin Slowey. The Twins were widely reported to be disenchanted with him and shopping him last season. If nothing works, you trade mid-season. But Lester-Beckett-Buchholz is a strong enough front 3 to take some flyers at the back end.

As for converting Bard or Aceves, I'm sceptical. The numbers don't scream starter and, well, I like them in the 'pen.

#75 ivanvamp


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Posted 26 October 2011 - 09:25 PM

Just because the Braves are loaded at pitcher and Beachy wasn't on prospect lists doesn't mean they'll give him away. You are talking about the Braves trading two $50's for a $10 and a handful of change. Their team would be significantly better for the same money if they signed Aramis Ramirez. If they truly wanted to trade either Heyward or Beachy they could get so much more Youkilis couldn't get either of those guys solo, they are much more valuable commodities.
Background on Beachy, he was signed as an undrafted free agent, and tore through the Braves system, ended up as their #8 prospect going into the year. He also was 7th in XFIP among starters with at least 140 IP, and 13th In FIP. All that under control for 6 more years. He's one of the most valuable commodities in the league


Well, there's a reason I want him! :rolleyes:

#76 Cellar-Door


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Posted 26 October 2011 - 09:47 PM

Well, there's a reason I want him! :rolleyes:

well yeah, I want Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg doesn't mean they can be had for Youkilis and scrubs.

#77 Jack Rabbit Slim

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Posted 26 October 2011 - 09:47 PM

Thinking past 2012, I don't see any big, long-term contracts being signed this offseason. For 2013, the Sox already have Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, and a presumably healthy Lackey locked up. The 2013 FA pitching class is arguably the best in recent memory and has several pitchers that are worth big contracts. Rather than giving out the big contract to a mediocre pitcher this year and keeping us out of the 2013 bidding, I would rather see several short (2 year at most) contracts. I would spend a little on a back-end starter that can be depended on for health and innings and then take a few fliers on health risks that can be mid-rotation starters when healthy (Bedard, Harden, Capuano, Webb).

I know a lot of fans will declare this is punting the 2012 season, but if Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz stay healthy (a big if, but still) this team has the offense and can build a good enough bullpen to win without aces in the 4/5 spots.

#78 ivanvamp


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Posted 27 October 2011 - 05:10 AM

well yeah, I want Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg doesn't mean they can be had for Youkilis and scrubs.


Reddick (109 ops+) or Kalish (one of whom will be Boston's starting RF next year) is a "scrub"? And two pitching prospects are "scrubs"? A package of Youkilis, Reddick/Kalish, and two prospects = crap?

Listen, I know that my suggestion has little chance of happening, but that isn't a crap package for a team that really needs offense. I agree with you that a better move for them would simply be to sign a free agent. But Kevin Youkilis isn't worth anything? Last 4 years of ops+: 143, 145, 157, 123. Yes, he was hurt this past year. Obviously an issue moving forward. But goodness, the guy is a very good player.

#79 rglenmt

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Posted 27 October 2011 - 07:12 AM

John Lackey requiring Tommy John surgery may be a blessing, not a blessing to ownership's pocket book, but in terms of the opportunity it gives the new GM to improve starting pitching. Moves to acquire pitching and open spots for Felix Doubront, Daniel Bard, Anthony Ranaudo, is endless. My guess is that probably Tim Wakefield will not be on the pitching staff, whether in the rotation or in the pen. But with both DiceK and Lackey unavailable, the team is going to have make moves it might not otherwise have explored. I think FA ideas such as trying to sign CC Sabathia are pipe dreams. I do, however, think that the Red Sox do have players with trade value available to acquire pitching. e.g. The Red Sox are not likely to retain both Reddick and Kalish, so once an evaluation in early ST is made regarding Kalish's recovery, that is an option, particularly if a player like Michael Cuddyer is acquired to play RF. Jed Lowrie has some trade value, and the new Manager is going to have to evaluate in ST how early Jose Iglesias can hit enough to be a ML shortstop, most already believing Jose is a ML shortstop. Either way, Marco Scutaro seems to be in a pretty good position for that transition. Ben Cherington is going to have an early opportunity to put a further imprint on this team, building around, Ellsbury, Crawford, Gonzalez, Pedroia, Youkilis, Beckett, Lester and Buchholz, a pretty stong nucleus, regardless of the collapse in September 2011.

#80 Wake's knuckle

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Posted 27 October 2011 - 09:07 AM

Lackey's contract is probably insured at some level, so it's better to have him out for the year than being paid to pitch for someone else -- after everything that went down, I doubt he would have been pitching in Boston next year. With a year off, who knows?

I don't know how much money they have to throw after starting pitchers. Honestly, Darvish is probably the best bet to help up make the playoffs next year -- he's a wild card, but including in that is the chance to be really good, unlike the other members of the average-to-scary poo poo platter of FA starters this year.

That said, it might be time for the Sox to do the once-unthinkable.... rebuild. Get what they can for Youk and perhaps Ellsbury (who probably will never have another year like last year) and, honestly, anyone else who is not under contract for at least three years and rebuild for 2013 or 2014. Ellsbury's value has never been higher.... and will probably never BE higher. That's a good time to trade. Then you let Ortiz walk and throw all the cash the team pockets into player development and international signings.

Even the Yankees can't manage to compete EVERY year -- I mean, look how they utterly lucked out with their starting pitching this year, I don't think they REALLY expected to be in it at the end of the season.

#81 arrowmaker

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Posted 27 October 2011 - 11:09 AM

John Lackey requiring Tommy John surgery may be a blessing, not a blessing to ownership's pocket book, but in terms of the opportunity it gives the new GM to improve starting pitching.


Actually it is a blessing to the pocket book as well as the opportunity. Insurance on salary -v- injury as stated helps ownership. More importantly the injury clause in his contract really helps. He now will owe the Sox a year at the end of the contract working for the league minimum. This makes his average annual salary go down, which is used to calculate the Luxury tax for the team. In addition, it makes it a cheaper contract to move should he come back, look decent but still need to be moved. Current league minimum is 414K. For 2015 it will obviously be some higher but not significantly. So his average annual salary goes from 15.2M per year for three years to 11.5M per year over four years, 10.3M over three years, 7.8M over two years and (roughly) 450K the final year giving the Sox an additional 3.7M this year of additional luxury tax room, 4.9M in 2013, 7.4M in 2014 and a loss of about half a million in 2015 (the option year).

#82 untilthebombs

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Posted 27 October 2011 - 11:17 AM

Two key things that I'm thinking about when considering possible acquisitions for the rotation this offseason:

1) Next year will be a tough year to compete, with TB looking to be significantly improved, and NYY presumably continuing their yearly contention.

2) Particularly when it comes to SPs, the market is extremely bare. Resulting in a likely poor ROI compared to what others years generally offer.

3) As Over The Monster posted, the 2012 free agent class looks extremely promising with respect to SPs.

Which those factors in mind, I'd go forward with Lester, Beckett, and Buchholz, and piece together the last two spots, hoping for the best. It might have to be done much in the same fashion as the team was forced to this year. If one or two spots are filled with injury risks like Bedard or Harden, Aceves, Weiland, possibly Doubront, and Miller (or whoever his comp is this year if desired), can fill out the rest of the starts.

Over the course of an entire season, the additional wins likely to be added by the free agent class, excluding CC, Wilson and maybe Darvish are so nominal that the financial commitment is not worth it. Save the money and go out and get one of the big names in 2012.

#83 Cellar-Door


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Posted 27 October 2011 - 11:41 AM

Reddick (109 ops+) or Kalish (one of whom will be Boston's starting RF next year) is a "scrub"? And two pitching prospects are "scrubs"? A package of Youkilis, Reddick/Kalish, and two prospects = crap?

Listen, I know that my suggestion has little chance of happening, but that isn't a crap package for a team that really needs offense. I agree with you that a better move for them would simply be to sign a free agent. But Kevin Youkilis isn't worth anything? Last 4 years of ops+: 143, 145, 157, 123. Yes, he was hurt this past year. Obviously an issue moving forward. But goodness, the guy is a very good player.

Scrubs was probably a bit much, but they are just another guys, Bowden is literally useless to Atlanta, Youkilis is a good player, but the same reason we are considering moving him to DH is the reason no National league team will spend big on him, he can't play 3B effectively anymore and he's constantly injured. As I pointed out, you are asking for two young, cheap franchise cornerstones. Beachy is miles better than the pitchers offered, Heyward is far more valuable than Kalish or Reddick, and Youk is no more valuable to them than Aramis Ramirez who can be had for just money (and not that much more money). So yes your trade was absolutely ridiculous.

#84 arrowmaker

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Posted 27 October 2011 - 12:26 PM

I think the last two spots of the rotation can be filled by Aceves, who by all reports would like a chance to start, and by Bard (as long as we keep Pap). I have read several reports saying Bard doesn't want to be a career set up man. I think, given part of the blame for September's collapse has been assigned to clubhouse issues and personalities, trying to keep our productive members of the team happy, in place and generally quiet would be beneficial. Give them a shot in the spring to compete, get stretched out and move them back to the place they have been successful if they falter. Bring up some guys from the minors that have developed for the pen and send them back when you need to shake things up. Dubront, Weiland and what about
Alex Wilson? Maybe sign Bedard as the one experienced guy to compete for a starter's role. Dice K is back in July for whatever that's worth. You can always pick up a half season rental of one of the players who will be a free agent if you need at the trade deadline. I would save money this year and rely on offense to pull you through those 4th and 5th starters.

#85 MikeM

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Posted 27 October 2011 - 01:52 PM

I don't know how much money they have to throw after starting pitchers. Honestly, Darvish is probably the best bet to help up make the playoffs next year -- he's a wild card, but including in that is the chance to be really good, unlike the other members of the average-to-scary poo poo platter of FA starters this year.


I'm warming more towards this concept as the days go by, as it really just presents us with the best of both worlds option (contention/rebuilding) imo. As that back-end of any CJ Wilson contract is going to look terrible, and after him the other options are all pretty meh. Like i basically stated in the Yu thread, if/when convinced the threesome can once again get creative in negating any potentially lingering effect of that posting fee, a Yu Darvish contract is going to look pretty dang appealing when matched up against the realistic alternatives.

People keep bringing up Bard/Aceves as potential options, but i just don't see it. Shooting holes in our bullpen, in hopes one of these guys steps up to be our 4th starter, isn't the answer here. Especially when, and let's not kid ourselves there, Tim Wakefield just got all but cemented into that 5th spot as option Uno with Lackey undergoing TJ.

I don't see any legitmate attempts at rebuilding going on this year either, btw. I mean let's keep certain aspects into perspective here. Play that September over 100x, and we likely make the playoffs in 95+ of them, and that's without even factoring in stuff like Buchholz's injury. Praise going out to Tampa's starting rotation aside, it's not like they are some beast with a legitimate yearly grip on a playoff spot, imo. As bad as shit here may seem to be now, it's only that bad when held to the highest of standards, which we all tend to do every winter (while arguably overreacting in the process :)). With the real reality here being that there's still a very solid core to move forward/compete on, which will still in all probability field a team that's not simply going away in 2012.

Edited by MikeM, 27 October 2011 - 01:55 PM.


#86 untilthebombs

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Posted 27 October 2011 - 02:37 PM

I think the last two spots of the rotation can be filled by Aceves, who by all reports would like a chance to start, and by Bard (as long as we keep Pap). I have read several reports saying Bard doesn't want to be a career set up man. I think, given part of the blame for September's collapse has been assigned to clubhouse issues and personalities, trying to keep our productive members of the team happy, in place and generally quiet would be beneficial. Give them a shot in the spring to compete, get stretched out and move them back to the place they have been successful if they falter. Bring up some guys from the minors that have developed for the pen and send them back when you need to shake things up. Dubront, Weiland and what about
Alex Wilson? Maybe sign Bedard as the one experienced guy to compete for a starter's role. Dice K is back in July for whatever that's worth. You can always pick up a half season rental of one of the players who will be a free agent if you need at the trade deadline. I would save money this year and rely on offense to pull you through those 4th and 5th starters.


What makes you believe that either Aceves or Bard is a even worth considering? I'll just quote something that I posted a while ago:

What's the deal with the suggestions of moving Bard to the rotation? I've never heard it even suggested prior to going SOSH. Nothing we've see to this point suggests that he would make a good starting pitcher.

1) He hasn't started since since single A where he struggled - 6.42 ERA, 5.66 FIP

2) In his major league appearances, his performance declines SIGNIFICANTLY as his PC rises (if my calc is correct):

PC >25

ERA: 5.65
FIP: 4.72
BB%: 17.4%
K%: 23.7%

Versus his overall statistics:


ERA: 2.88
FIP: 3.22
BB%: 9.6%
K%: 26.8%



I don't have the time at the moment to split out Aceves' appearances, by quickly scanning his game log from this year, it seems like his walk rate spikes up in longer apperances, and this is a guy who already posted a horrible 1.90 K/BB in this year, the best of his career. He walks too many guys and strikes out to few to make it around the lineup +3 times consistently. He had a great 2011, but his LOB% was unusually high and his BABIP was unusually low. He's got a good defense behind him, but it safe to say that there was some good luck in play as well.

#87 Wake's knuckle

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Posted 28 October 2011 - 05:04 AM

Aceves may be one of those rare pitchers who actually has a bit of control over his BABIP. He has a lot of innings in his career now, in front of defenses both good and bad, yet still has a career 237 BABIP. Must get a lot of pop-ups or something. That said, I doubt we get much more out of him next year than we got this year... when was the last time a relief pitcher racked up 114 IP? Honestly, I think we have other internal options for a 5th starter (Tazawa, f.x.).... but we still need a fourth starter, if we want to contend next year. We probably need to let Papi go and move Youk to DH... unless we can find someone who wants to play him at 1B, which is can definitely still do. It was trying to play third all year this year that wore him out -- he's just not a 3rd baseman anymore.

#88 jdm2008

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Posted 28 October 2011 - 05:58 AM

Actually it is a blessing to the pocket book as well as the opportunity. Insurance on salary -v- injury as stated helps ownership. More importantly the injury clause in his contract really helps. He now will owe the Sox a year at the end of the contract working for the league minimum. This makes his average annual salary go down, which is used to calculate the Luxury tax for the team. In addition, it makes it a cheaper contract to move should he come back, look decent but still need to be moved. Current league minimum is 414K. For 2015 it will obviously be some higher but not significantly. So his average annual salary goes from 15.2M per year for three years to 11.5M per year over four years, 10.3M over three years, 7.8M over two years and (roughly) 450K the final year giving the Sox an additional 3.7M this year of additional luxury tax room, 4.9M in 2013, 7.4M in 2014 and a loss of about half a million in 2015 (the option year).


I'll bet Lackey will retire before pitching for the league minimum.

#89 Lost Number

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Posted 28 October 2011 - 10:47 AM

Lackey's injury won't have any effect on his AAV until 2013 at the earliest. He hasn't missed "significant time" just yet. Sox probably can't exercise the option until after the 2012 season.

#90 nighthob

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Posted 28 October 2011 - 11:25 AM

Just because the Braves are loaded at pitcher and Beachy wasn't on prospect lists doesn't mean they'll give him away. You are talking about the Braves trading two $50's for a $10 and a handful of change. Their team would be significantly better for the same money if they signed Aramis Ramirez. If they truly wanted to trade either Heyward or Beachy they could get so much more Youkilis couldn't get either of those guys solo, they are much more valuable commodities.
Background on Beachy, he was signed as an undrafted free agent, and tore through the Braves system, ended up as their #8 prospect going into the year. He also was 7th in XFIP among starters with at least 140 IP, and 13th In FIP. All that under control for 6 more years. He's one of the most valuable commodities in the league


You're being overly and senselessly overdramatic here. One, the Braves aren't going to hoard their prospects because there are only so many roster spots. Sooner or later some of them will be turned into an impact player. Two, there are a lot of ways to make the deal work. For example, a three way deal with the third team being one that's in need of a 1b (Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays, Rangers, Brewers {likely}, christ even Freddie Freeman leaves something to be desired). Another way of making it work is to take back Derek Lowe's corpse in any trade (making it easier for the Braves to both play Youkilis at first and sign Ramirez for third and move Chipper to the OF for the time being. Or maybe replacing Beachey's spot with one or two of their pitching prospects.

So, yeah, you're off base here. Youkilis probably has a lot of value as a 1B, and given the way that Heyward cratered I'd hesitate to call him a $50 at this point.

#91 untilthebombs

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Posted 28 October 2011 - 11:56 AM

Aceves may be one of those rare pitchers who actually has a bit of control over his BABIP. He has a lot of innings in his career now, in front of defenses both good and bad, yet still has a career 237 BABIP. Must get a lot of pop-ups or something. That said, I doubt we get much more out of him next year than we got this year... when was the last time a relief pitcher racked up 114 IP? Honestly, I think we have other internal options for a 5th starter (Tazawa, f.x.).... but we still need a fourth starter, if we want to contend next year. We probably need to let Papi go and move Youk to DH... unless we can find someone who wants to play him at 1B, which is can definitely still do. It was trying to play third all year this year that wore him out -- he's just not a 3rd baseman anymore.


Aceves is 1 of 5 players in MLB history with at least 240 IP and a career BABIP of .237 or less. You definitely might be right, but the odds aren't on his side. Troy Percival is the only one who maintained it over a more extended period of time, 708.2 IP. That tells me that in all likelihood, he'll regress, and there's no reason for it to not start sooner rather than later.

That's not a shot against him though. I think he clearly has value as a spot starter, extended middle reliever.

#92 Cellar-Door


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Posted 28 October 2011 - 11:58 AM

You're being overly and senselessly overdramatic here. One, the Braves aren't going to hoard their prospects because there are only so many roster spots. Sooner or later some of them will be turned into an impact player. Two, there are a lot of ways to make the deal work. For example, a three way deal with the third team being one that's in need of a 1b (Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays, Rangers, Brewers {likely}, christ even Freddie Freeman leaves something to be desired). Another way of making it work is to take back Derek Lowe's corpse in any trade (making it easier for the Braves to both play Youkilis at first and sign Ramirez for third and move Chipper to the OF for the time being. Or maybe replacing Beachey's spot with one or two of their pitching prospects.

So, yeah, you're off base here. Youkilis probably has a lot of value as a 1B, and given the way that Heyward cratered I'd hesitate to call him a $50 at this point.

There is no reason the Braves would be interested in that deal. Youkilis is not that valuable of a property. Why trade a guy who was one of the top pitchers in the National league last year and is cost controlled for 6 more years for an aging 1B, when one of your best young players is a 1B (Freeman 118 OPS+ 22 years old cost controlled until 2017) And give up on a guy who had a 131 OPS+ at age 20 and is cost controlled through 2016 just because he had a down year after injuries? Sure they might look to trade 1 of those guys, but it would take far more than that offer. They barely missed the playoffs last year, are young and talented, why would they give away top young players for a 2 year rental?

#93 nighthob

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Posted 28 October 2011 - 12:08 PM

There is no reason the Braves would be interested in that deal. Youkilis is not that valuable of a property. Why trade a guy who was one of the top pitchers in the National league last year and is cost controlled for 6 more years for an aging 1B, when one of your best young players is a 1B (Freeman 118 OPS+ 22 years old cost controlled until 2017) And give up on a guy who had a 131 OPS+ at age 20 and is cost controlled through 2016 just because he had a down year after injuries? Sure they might look to trade 1 of those guys, but it would take far more than that offer. They barely missed the playoffs last year, are young and talented, why would they give away top young players for a 2 year rental?


So you basically didn't actually read my post and are just stomping your feet and pouting?

#94 Cellar-Door


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Posted 28 October 2011 - 12:39 PM

So you basically didn't actually read my post and are just stomping your feet and pouting?

No, I read your post, and restated the point that you failed to address, which is why in the world you trade good young players to pick up old players who don't make your team better. Spinning a 3 team trade, or taking on Lowe's 1 year of salary so they can get a second older hitter still downs't address the underlying issue that they are losing young, valuable assets to get older, more expensive less valuable assets. You never addressed the underlying issu e of the value disparity. Give me a logical reason the Braves would trade those 2 guys for Youkilis and Reddick? Given age, declining defensive performance on Youk's part, salary etc. His value to an NL team who already has a good young 1B is very low, add in the extremely high price that good young pitchers fetch. Ad hominem attacks are pointless, if you disagree show me a reason to think that trade is reasonable?

#95 jdm2008

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Posted 28 October 2011 - 04:32 PM

Never mind

Edited by jdm2008, 28 October 2011 - 04:55 PM.


#96 jdm2008

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Posted 28 October 2011 - 05:01 PM

Two key things that I'm thinking about when considering possible acquisitions for the rotation this offseason:

1) Next year will be a tough year to compete, with TB looking to be significantly improved, and NYY presumably continuing their yearly contention.

2) Particularly when it comes to SPs, the market is extremely bare. Resulting in a likely poor ROI compared to what others years generally offer.

3) As Over The Monster posted, the 2012 free agent class looks extremely promising with respect to SPs.

Which those factors in mind, I'd go forward with Lester, Beckett, and Buchholz, and piece together the last two spots, hoping for the best. It might have to be done much in the same fashion as the team was forced to this year. If one or two spots are filled with injury risks like Bedard or Harden, Aceves, Weiland, possibly Doubront, and Miller (or whoever his comp is this year if desired), can fill out the rest of the starts.

Over the course of an entire season, the additional wins likely to be added by the free agent class, excluding CC, Wilson and maybe Darvish are so nominal that the financial commitment is not worth it. Save the money and go out and get one of the big names in 2012.


in 2012 the big SP that are scheduled to become available are

Cain
Hamels
Shields
Hudson

Cain and Hamels have a pretty big shot of never getting to free agency. Philly can afford Hamels and since Oswalt was let go, it's a pretty good shot that philly wants him and they are not poor. Big time free agent pitchers don't come along very often and it doesn't pay to wait for them. There's a good chance that of the guys on that list that only Shields gets to FA, and maybe Hudson since he will be so old.
Though I agree with you that it doesn't make sense to give big FA to mediocre pitchers just because. Better to sign guys like Capuano or Jackson if he'll take 4/36. I wouldn't mind a trade for wandy Rodriguez either.

Edited by jdm2008, 28 October 2011 - 06:10 PM.


#97 Cellar-Door


  • SoSH Member


  • 5,826 posts

Posted 28 October 2011 - 05:14 PM

I'd like to see a reasonable bid on Darvish something in the neighborhood of $45 million. Whether they get Darvish or not I'd like to see Bedard brought back, I know he won't hold up for 200 IP, but when healthy he is still very good, especially at the money he will cost. I don't want to see us go after any of the free agents on multi-year deals, but would like to see us take a flier on one other injury discount from Harden, Sheets, Webb.

#98 untilthebombs

  • 253 posts

Posted 28 October 2011 - 09:00 PM

in 2012 the big SP that are scheduled to become available are

Cain
Hamels
Shields
Hudson

Cain and Hamels have a pretty big shot of never getting to free agency. Philly can afford Hamels and since Oswalt was let go, it's a pretty good shot that philly wants him and they are not poor. Big time free agent pitchers don't come along very often and it doesn't pay to wait for them. There's a good chance that of the guys on that list that only Shields gets to FA, and maybe Hudson since he will be so old.
Though I agree with you that it doesn't make sense to give big FA to mediocre pitchers just because. Better to sign guys like Capuano or Jackson if he'll take 4/36. I wouldn't mind a trade for wandy Rodriguez either.



Add to those guys Danks, Greinke, Marcum, McCarthy, Jonathan and Anibal Sanchez, and Lirinao. Possibly Haren, Floyd, Santana (Shields is actually in this group) if their options are not activated.

All will not likely test the market, but it's still easily a better group than this year's. Ignoring CC for the moment since he's expected to resign, we're looking at a +3rd starter and an import, followed by a few back end starters, and then a ton of question mark guys.

With regards to Hamels, they'll definitely try to resign him and I'm leaning towards him staying there, but they really don't have all that much payroll to play with as a result of the number of holes at significant positions along with Howard's monster contract. With regard to Cain, Bumgarner's poised to leap him next year to become the team's best pitcher, possibly challenging Lincecum a year or two after. With a smaller payroll, I expect them to let both Cain and Sanchez walk.

Edited by untilthebombs, 28 October 2011 - 09:00 PM.


#99 RedDragon67

  • 60 posts

Posted 30 October 2011 - 01:41 AM

Add to those guys Danks, Greinke, Marcum, McCarthy, Jonathan and Anibal Sanchez, and Lirinao. Possibly Haren, Floyd, Santana (Shields is actually in this group) if their options are not activated.

All will not likely test the market, but it's still easily a better group than this year's. Ignoring CC for the moment since he's expected to resign, we're looking at a +3rd starter and an import, followed by a few back end starters, and then a ton of question mark guys.

With regards to Hamels, they'll definitely try to resign him and I'm leaning towards him staying there, but they really don't have all that much payroll to play with as a result of the number of holes at significant positions along with Howard's monster contract. With regard to Cain, Bumgarner's poised to leap him next year to become the team's best pitcher, possibly challenging Lincecum a year or two after. With a smaller payroll, I expect them to let both Cain and Sanchez walk.

Add me to the list who don't believe many of those listed will even be available after next year. I don't think you play the waiting game and hope that someone will become available. I think you do what you can now to be competitive in the coming year. I would rather not have Bard or Aceves in the rotation.

#100 untilthebombs

  • 253 posts

Posted 30 October 2011 - 02:11 AM

Add me to the list who don't believe many of those listed will even be available after next year. I don't think you play the waiting game and hope that someone will become available. I think you do what you can now to be competitive in the coming year. I would rather not have Bard or Aceves in the rotation.


Based on?