370 replies to this topic

[MikeM]

I'm presuming that you aren't Theo Epstein or John Henry. If this is true, you have no idea what you are talking about in relation to how the posting fee affected the finances of the Red Sox organization. Neither do I, but I sincerely doubt they just said 'ho hum, we're going to lay out fifty million dollars, but not budget it in any way shape or form.' Seems incredibly foolish to assume that is the case.

The only thing that is more foolish is to evaluate the value of Matsuzaka to the Red Sox without taking into account money that they have paid to put him out on the field. Are you serious? Because they paid out more than half of it up front, paying out $105M for an alternately injured and mediocre Matsuzaka makes it not a hardship to the organization? This is lunacy.

Why don't you guys bid $100M for Darvish this time? After all, it doesn't count.

Like i stated man, i've already been extensively debating that pov in another thread, and have np doing a complete rehash there if necessary. That said ,and beyond a very simplified down and may i add fairly cop-out'ish "you are not Theo/John Henry" retort (this is a message board where people come to speculate the Red Sox/baseball, where 95% of the content essentially boils down to individual speculation), i do feel the need to point out that you didn't provide the example i asked for there.

I mean surely with that $51m playing out to be such a "hardship to the organization", and given the large potential application pool of signings/potential-signings/trades that have gone down since it was paid out, you have some supporting examples behind that conclusion. Right?

[jon abbey]

OK, let's try to keep it as civil as possible, gents, it's a potentially interesting topic if you do that.

The one thing I'll say is that "winning" a big FA deal isn't as simple as dividing the salary (and posting fee, if applicable) by the WAR (and I know you didn't say it was, Meff). We all pretty much agree that NY needs a #2 starter, and they don't seem to have one internally for now. So I think one needs to factor into the possible acquisitions of Darvish or Wilson that there would be no prospects lost in return, except for the 2012 #1 pick lost for Wilson. This is another reason why going after Darvish may make the most sense for NY.

[Meff Nelton]

Like i stated man, i've already been extensively debating that pov in another thread, and have np doing a complete rehash there if necessary. That said ,and beyond a very simplified down and may i add fairly cop-out'ish "you are not Theo/John Henry" retort (this is a message board where people come to speculate the Red Sox/baseball, where 95% of the content essentially boils down to individual speculation), i do feel the need to point out that you didn't provide the example i asked for there.

I mean surely with that $51m playing out to be such a "hardship to the organization", and given the large potential application pool of signings/potential-signings/trades that have gone down since it was paid out, you have some supporting examples behind that conclusion. Right?

This is a ridiculous conversation, and far beyond what the topic is supposed to be, so I'll leave you with this:

Let's say that the Red Sox had a $51M non-budgeted discretionary fund. A fund in which overpaying a player versus performance was not an issue.

In this scenario, what would have been better? Using it on the posting fee for Matsuzaka, or holding onto it for two years and adding it to an offer for CC Sabathia? Are you telling me that the Yankees would have topped an offer of 26-28 million per year for seven years? Sure, it would be a terrible deal from the perspective of paying for actual on-field value, but you have the magic extra $51M of the fund to work with, and it doesn't count. So, when you subtract that magic $51M signing bonus, you are actually getting a fair value.

Did the Red Sox fail to sign Mark Teixeira? How would Matt Holliday have looked playing left after letting Bay leave? If only the Red Sox had chosen to hold onto this wonderful fund that doesn't count for anything, they could have easily beaten out the market for any of these players, any of which (along with many others) would have provided significantly more value than Matsuzaka has. If you're going to piss money away (as you are claiming the Red Sox could just do when they won the posting,) you might as well get an actual star in return.

In reality, this money didn't exist in a vacuum. The Red Sox have passed on/lost out on many high-profile free agents whom certainly would have helped their club in the last five years. It is a silly statement to pretend that losing $51M is immaterial. Posting fees paid out can just as easily be salary for star free agents. Ignoring this fact is rank stupidity.

[jon abbey]

The CC example is a better specific one than the Tex/Holliday ones, since Boston gave out massive deals to Gonzalez/Crawford at those positions since then.

[Meff Nelton]

The CC example is a better specific one than the Tex/Holliday ones, since Boston gave out massive deals to Gonzalez/Crawford at those positions since then.

Four and five years later respectively. Perhaps in that time they were defraying the cost of the posting fee?

I'm done with this. Last word is all yours, MikeM.

[jon abbey]

No, one and two years later, respectively. How long they were after Dice-K is irrelevant in this context.

[MikeM]

In reality, this money didn't exist in a vacuum. The Red Sox have passed on/lost out on many high-profile free agents whom certainly would have helped their club in the last five years. It is a silly statement to pretend that losing $51M is immaterial. Posting fees paid out can just as easily be salary for star free agents. Ignoring this fact is rank stupidity.

Dice-K was representative of a rare and exceptionally unique set of surrounding circumstances. Sometimes people in a position to make "splurge" exceptions, when such opportunities present themselves, choose to do so. That's a reality. Ignoring a potential difference there while both viewing/treating every single dollar spent as being equal, and in such an absolute manner that it might as well be coming out of your own pocket, that's what enters into the realm of stupidity imo. As in the end it's not your money, and if the people spending it don't present you a reason to logically care about it, you shouldn't.

My stance after stating that is rather simple. Had that money not been spent on Dice-K's posting fee, it was never going towards an enhanced bid on Barry Zito that winter, CC or Tex two years latter, or on whoever else since. As in each and every of those or any other examples to be provided,and by every account each time, Theo expressed the same competitive level of interest you'd of otherwise expected out of him. Based on the same rational/ line-of-thought principles one would be applying even before Dice-K and his posting fee, or long after for that matter. Leaving me nothing to conclude that Theo Epstein was ever required to view Matsuzaka as more then the 6 year/$52m pitcher he became the day he signed his MLB contract. If he didn't, i see no need to do so either.

I don't need to be Theo Epstein or John Henry to tell you the reason/s why i believe we were never going to be offering guys like Teixeira/Holliday more then we did, or why we didn't rationally find ourselves out there outbidding the 7 year/$161m you handed CC (although in hindsight, we definitely should have been more interested there then we apparently felt a need to be). All of which essentially had nothing to do with that $51m imo, and everything to do with need vs individual value projections at the time. The same principle/s that was dictating every other instance where we *did* go out and spend/commit a substantial amount of money, btw.

Which come to think of it, was probably similar to the manner in which Kei Igawa's $26m played out for you guys. Sure, at face value it looked pretty shitty on paper, but did it ever play into anything meaningful (for you as a fan) beyond that?

[Brickowski]

In fairness, Matsuzaka won 15 games (with 201K's) in 2007 plus a game in the WS and went 18-3 in 2008 before falling off a cliff. I agree that the posting fee was outrageous, but for the first two years, at least, he was somewhat close to the pitcher the Sox thought they were getting.


Igawa, on the other hand, won exactly 2 games with a career era of over 6-- not suprising since he can't keep his breaking ball down. Then he was demoted to Scranton, then to Trenton and was released in 2011. That $25M was completely wasted.


It remains to be seen how Darvish will do in MLB. I would go after Darvish ahead of Wilson, but I'd offer a realistic posting fee. I'm not sure what that number is, but maybe Cashman does. Then, if some other team outbid me, so be it. There are some interesting names among FA pitchers, starting with Oswalt.

Edited by Brickowski, 08 November 2011 - 06:44 PM.

[jon abbey]

There are some interesting names among FA pitchers, starting with Oswalt.

My guess at NY's current preference order would be Darvish/Wilson/Buehrle, I don't think they'd give multiple years to Oswalt or Edwin Jackson, which I'm sure they can both get elsewhere. Presumably the other top SPs will wait until the Darvish bidding is settled to take serious bids, at least a team or two with money to spend will likely be more desperate then.

One possibly interesting connection that Heyman posted today was that Billy Eppler and CJ Wilson "grew up" together, whatever that exactly means.

[Brickowski]

Who knows? Another name being thrown about is Zambrano, although it is unclear (a) if he would be a fit in NY and (b) what the new Cubs brain trust would want in return (which shouldn't be much since Zambrano has negative trade value right now).

[jon abbey]

NY doesn't need a back end of the rotation guy, they have no shortage of in house candidates for that, especially if Garcia stays. They need a #2, to me those are the three options, and I think anyone in that category or better available via trade would cost a huge amount in prospects, some kind of Montero/Banuelos-led package that I doubt Cashman will give up for almost anyone. I think NY will likely end up with one of those three, especially if the other two wait until after Darvish's rights are won.

[jon abbey]

To be more precise, I think Darvish and Wilson are legit #2s, although each has their own mild question marks. Buehrle is a reliable #3 with a bunch of plusses, a LHP who always goes 200+ innings (11 years in a row!), a great fielder/athlete who doesn't allow almost any SBs (about 4 per year, with 58% career CS), and who has spent his whole career in the AL.

He will turn 33 in spring training, I could see an argument that something like a 3/48 or a 3/51 offer to Buehrle is the best choice for NY, that might be enough to get it done.

[nycdoc999]

He will turn 33 in spring training, I could see an argument that something like a 3/48 or a 3/51 offer to Buehrle is the best choice for NY, that might be enough to get it done.

Yuck. Imagine ground ball after ground ball getting thru the left side of the Yankee infield for the next 3 years. For $16-17M per year. And pitching the majority of your games in the AL central does not necessarily mean you can hack it in the AL east. Pass if this is the price.

[Saby]

Yuck. Imagine ground ball after ground ball getting thru the left side of the Yankee infield for the next 3 years. For $16-17M per year. And pitching the majority of your games in the AL central does not necessarily mean you can hack it in the AL east. Pass if this is the price.

I disagree. I'd be pretty damn happy with a 3/48 deal to one of the most durable pitchers in the game. In fact, I'd much rather that contract than a high-stakes gamble with Darvish or overbidding for Wilson. He might not be a true #2 in the AL East, but he'll certainly provide some much needed stability to the rotation.

[jon abbey]

Yuck. Imagine ground ball after ground ball getting thru the left side of the Yankee infield for the next 3 years. For $16-17M per year. And pitching the majority of your games in the AL central does not necessarily mean you can hack it in the AL east. Pass if this is the price.

He's had more success against TOR and BAL in his career than against any teams in the Central or West, FWIW. BOS and TB much less, but BOS hammered CC all last season too, and that didn't stop NY from giving him another massive deal.

I also don't totally buy the conventional wisdom of A-Rod/Jeter being statues in the field, at least not currently. A-Rod looked fantastic defensively late in the season after returning from his injury (from observation), and had a 20.2 UZR/150 for the full season (after small negative numbers the preceding four years), which was the best in the AL for any 3B playing more than 200 innings, just ahead of Beltre (!). I'm not saying he's really that good, but I do think his fielding is at least competent for now.

And the same thing to an extent with Jeter, who was horrible in the field in the early part of the season, but very solid after coming back from his own injury mid-season. I don't know if there's a way to track defense over parts of a season, but his improvement defensively in the second half was as noticeable as his offensive improvement. He was making plays on the other side of second base, I never remember seeing him do that, at least not for years.

Next, Buehrle's GB% last year was 44.9% (career 45.9%), lower than CC, Nova and CJ Wilson and actually towards the bottom of AL pitchers with 150+ IP.

But the main point is that it's kind of dumb to just say "Pass if this is the price" without offering a preferable alternative in your eyes, obviously NY needs a rotation upgrade if at all possible. Virtually all FA SPs are going to have warts of some kind, big money FAs in general are overpriced but allow you to keep your prospects intact. What would you prefer?

Coincidentally Joel Sherman wrote a similar piece in today's Post:

http://www.nypost.co...K8HeGesCAcDnj5O

[melonbag]

I think the $51m is high, but the 3 years would work. A short contract is what the Yanks need, which is why Freddy is a good fit at the back of the rotation again.

If the FO avoids 4-5 year deals, they'll have flexibility when the youngsters are ready- at least on paper.

[jon abbey]

The slightly too high AAV would be to keep the deal at 3 years, someone else could easily offer 4/52.

[Rough Carrigan]

I think the $51m is high, but the 3 years would work. A short contract is what the Yanks need, which is why Freddy is a good fit at the back of the rotation again.

If the FO avoids 4-5 year deals, they'll have flexibility when the youngsters are ready- at least on paper.

Maybe I've got the bias of someone who didn't think something would work and is going to, dammit, keep predicting it will fail until it does. But I'd be wary of Freddy Garcia. There's just not a long history of righthanded junkballers consistently succeeding as starters. Seriously, who is there as a precursor, a junkballer in the fashion of Garcia. Even guys like John Burkett had more stuff than Garcia does now and didn't rely so much on hitters getting themselves out. It doesn't mean that a guy can't be unique but a lot of aging righties have lost their stuff and tried to become a Freddy Garcia. They almost invariably get blasted. Freddy got away with it pretty well for one season. I'm deeply skeptical that he can do it again.

[MikeM]

The slightly too high AAV would be to keep the deal at 3 years, someone else could easily offer 4/52.

Your overall logic there is solid imo, and given the current alternatives, i too agree Buehrle on a 3 year contract is the best surface bet going atm. The problem though lies in the likelihood that we end up having too many other interested parties out there, all seeing/thinking the same exact thing. Which ultimately will just push the market price there upwards, and enough so that it'll essentially negate that attempt to keep it at 3 using a higher AAV.

I just can't see him walking away from this winter with anything less then 4 guaranteed years. Not with the alternative options being so thin.

[jon abbey]

Maybe I've got the bias of someone who didn't think something would work and is going to, dammit, keep predicting it will fail until it does. But I'd be wary of Freddy Garcia. There's just not a long history of righthanded junkballers consistently succeeding as starters. Seriously, who is there as a precursor, a junkballer in the fashion of Garcia. Even guys like John Burkett had more stuff than Garcia does now and didn't rely so much on hitters getting themselves out. It doesn't mean that a guy can't be unique but a lot of aging righties have lost their stuff and tried to become a Freddy Garcia. They almost invariably get blasted. Freddy got away with it pretty well for one season. I'm deeply skeptical that he can do it again.

It wasn't just one year, he had as many quality starts in 2010 for the White Sox (18) as Cliff Lee had for Seattle/Texas. I think he's a solid bet for a back of the rotation guy, but he'll probably end up with a two year deal somewhere else.

[Rough Carrigan]

It wasn't just one year, he had as many quality starts in 2010 for the White Sox (18) as Cliff Lee had for Seattle/Texas. I think he's a solid bet for a back of the rotation guy, but he'll probably end up with a two year deal somewhere else.

While that part of his 2010 statistical profile is true, he was also killed in the other starts. He had a 4.64 ERA for the season and in his 6 losses he pitched a total of 18 innings and gave up 9 homers. 2010 seems like it was a pretty mixed bag for Freddy and not just a success story.

As I say, I'm biased and not just by the laundry. I see him pitch and I say "No fvcking way." But we'll see.

[nycdoc999]

He's had more success against TOR and BAL in his career than against any teams in the Central or West, FWIW. BOS and TB much less, but BOS hammered CC all last season too, and that didn't stop NY from giving him another massive deal.

I also don't totally buy the conventional wisdom of A-Rod/Jeter being statues in the field, at least not currently. A-Rod looked fantastic defensively late in the season after returning from his injury (from observation), and had a 20.2 UZR/150 for the full season (after small negative numbers the preceding four years), which was the best in the AL for any 3B playing more than 200 innings, just ahead of Beltre (!). I'm not saying he's really that good, but I do think his fielding is at least competent for now.

And the same thing to an extent with Jeter, who was horrible in the field in the early part of the season, but very solid after coming back from his own injury mid-season. I don't know if there's a way to track defense over parts of a season, but his improvement defensively in the second half was as noticeable as his offensive improvement. He was making plays on the other side of second base, I never remember seeing him do that, at least not for years.

Next, Buehrle's GB% last year was 44.9% (career 45.9%), lower than CC, Nova and CJ Wilson and actually towards the bottom of AL pitchers with 150+ IP.

But the main point is that it's kind of dumb to just say "Pass if this is the price" without offering a preferable alternative in your eyes, obviously NY needs a rotation upgrade if at all possible. Virtually all FA SPs are going to have warts of some kind, big money FAs in general are overpriced but allow you to keep your prospects intact. What would you prefer?

Coincidentally Joel Sherman wrote a similar piece in today's Post:

http://www.nypost.co...K8HeGesCAcDnj5O

Do we have to go thru the same old song and dance with URZ/150 and how imperfect it is, at least on a single year basis? And are you really trying to tell me that Jeter isn't one of the 3 worst defensive SS in the AL?

Buehle is a reasonable bet to be "league average", at least in the initial part of the deal. But he doesn't miss bats (granted, he doesn't walk guys either), and I'd rather not have another $16M per season starter that I wouldn't want taking the ball in Game 3-4 of the playoffs. I'd rather (a) take a shot at Darvish if he's posted or (b) go with kids for a year and make an attempt at getting a better starter from the 2012 FA class.

Where does it say in the Yankee manifesto that the same old mistakes need to be made with regards to signing middling pitchers for big bucks?

Edited by nycdoc999, 11 November 2011 - 09:21 PM.

[nycdoc999]

I disagree. I'd be pretty damn happy with a 3/48 deal to one of the most durable pitchers in the game. In fact, I'd much rather that contract than a high-stakes gamble with Darvish or overbidding for Wilson. He might not be a true #2 in the AL East, but he'll certainly provide some much needed stability to the rotation.

He's certainly NOT a #2 starter. His XFIP last 3 years has been 4.1+ pitching against the anemic lineups of KC, Cleveland, and Minnesota.

I guess it's not a horrible deal if it's 3 years, but there's nothing to suggest that Mark Buehrle is the difference maker the Yankees need to get deeper into the postseason. And if that's the case - why waste the $?

[jon abbey]

Do we have to go thru the same old song and dance with URZ/150 and how imperfect it is, at least on a single year basis? And are you really trying to tell me that Jeter isn't one of the 3 worst defensive SS in the AL?

What I'm trying to tell you, in a long, researched answer to a thoroughly shitty post by you, is that I think A-Rod and Jeter's defense was at least mediocre down the stretch last year. More to the point of this specific discussion, it doesn't matter since Buehrle is not a ground ball pitcher.

Buehle is a reasonable bet to be "league average", at least in the initial part of the deal. But he doesn't miss bats (granted, he doesn't walk guys either), and I'd rather not have another $16M per season starter that I wouldn't want taking the ball in Game 3-4 of the playoffs. I'd rather (a) take a shot at Darvish if he's posted or (b) go with kids for a year and make an attempt at getting a better starter from the 2012 FA class.

OK, fair enough, although 1) I'm not sure what would be wrong with Buehrle in game 3-4 of the playoffs and 2) They can still get a better starter from the 2012 FA class, although none of those guys are actually guaranteed to make it to free agency.

[jon abbey]

Again, the biggest plus on Buehrle is length of contract, assuming he's willing to take a 3 year deal.

[derekson]

Yeah, the infield defense argument against Buehrle makes no sense. If you want to argue against a pitcher because of that, CJ Wilson is the guy who'd suffer, because even if Jeter and ARod play defense as well as they did this season, they're still a huge downgrade from Andrus and Beltre. As a lefty pitcher with a pretty heavy ground ball rate, that might hurt him significantly. But a lefty ground ball pitcher is also the best type of pitcher for NYS.

[jon abbey]

SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman
#yankees want to bring back both andruw jones & eric chavez, both great in clubhouse. unsure if chavez may retire, tho

https://twitter.com/#!/SI_JonHeyman/status/136158695842250753

Jones makes sense, he's a good fit as a 4th OF for NY. Chavez I'm not as crazy about, but I guess he can fill in OK if either A-Rod or Tex go on the DL.

[Brickowski]

i was against bringing in Andruw Jones, but I was wrong. He did fine and I'd be happy to see him back. As for Chavez, what's not to like? He can hit a little and still plays decent third base. But oibviously these moves are peripheral. What matters is pitching.

The infield defense argument is a red herring. When Casey Stengel was managing the Dodgers in the mid-1930's, a reporter commented that Lonny Frey and Tony Cuccinello were a pretty good double play combination that would help the Brooklyn pitching staff. Stengel is said to have replied, maybe, but you can't stop Mel Ott with defense at second base.

The new Yankee stadium has a wind tunnel out to right center field. It's the balls hit there that will kill you, not ground balls to the left side.

[jon abbey]

Didn't we stop with the "wind tunnel" argument a few months into the 2009 season? Obviously balls fly out to RF, but I don't think that's the reason.

As for pitching, Hector Noesi is looking good in Dominican winter ball, 17 IP, 10 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 12 K, 27-3 GB/FB in his last three starts combined.

[Brickowski]

Well, whatever the reason, balls carry out there, and to be successful in Yankee Stadium, a pitcher's #1 priority has to be to prevent that from happening.

[terrynever]

Buster mentions the Yankees as possible trade partners if the Phillies decide to trade Hamels rather than pay thru the nose for him next year.

http://insider.espn....lly-cole-hamels

[Saby]

SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman
#yankees want to bring back both andruw jones & eric chavez, both great in clubhouse. unsure if chavez may retire, tho

https://twitter.com/...158695842250753

Jones makes sense, he's a good fit as a 4th OF for NY. Chavez I'm not as crazy about, but I guess he can fill in OK if either A-Rod or Tex go on the DL.

Jones is good news. I was a little worried he might go to the Rays.

[derekson]

Buster mentions the Yankees as possible trade partners if the Phillies decide to trade Hamels rather than pay thru the nose for him next year.

http://insider.espn....lly-cole-hamels

That makes no sense at all. There is absolutely zero chance that the Phillies trade Hamels this offseason. They just gave Papelbon $50 million. If they couldn't afford Hamels too I don't think they'd prioritize Papelbon over paying Hamels.

Plus the present version of the Phillies is the very definition of a team trying to go for it before their core ages. They are literally the least likely team in MLB to be moving ML pieces.

[SemperFidelisSox]

@Joelsherman: CJ Wilson and agt have asked to visit Yankees in NY b4 Dec 5 Winter Meetings and Yanks are considering request

[jon abbey]

Sherman's followup to that was:

"Joelsherman1 Joel Sherman
Continue to believe #Yankees are lukewarm on Wilson because, among other things, don't want to go 5 or 6 yrs on him"

And Heyman (Boras) says:

"SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman
#yankees believe prices way too high on cj wilson and e-jax thus far. plan to wait them out."

[MikeM]

Sherman's followup to that was:

"Joelsherman1 Joel Sherman
Continue to believe #Yankees are lukewarm on Wilson because, among other things, don't want to go 5 or 6 yrs on him"

And Heyman (Boras) says:

"SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman
#yankees believe prices way too high on cj wilson and e-jax thus far. plan to wait them out."

I saw Jim Bowden reporting earlier that there have been 10+ teams expressing interest in Buehrle. Probably end up having multiple 4 year offers on that table, imo.

Early claims driven by initial "there's a deal out there somewhere" optimism aside, i'll believe the Yankees only end up "lukewarm" on Wilson when i see it. Maybe they don't go 6, but if it comes down to offering 5 or essentially walking away empty this winter, i just can't see such a hardline stance being taken.

[Kid T]

Sherman's followup to that was:

"Joelsherman1 Joel Sherman
Continue to believe #Yankees are lukewarm on Wilson because, among other things, don't want to go 5 or 6 yrs on him"

And Heyman (Boras) says:

"SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman
#yankees believe prices way too high on cj wilson and e-jax thus far. plan to wait them out."

And hysterically, his agent is trying to hype up interest

[MikeM]

And hysterically, his agent is trying to hype up interest

And in other news, Brian Cashman was quoted today as stating that he'd be perfectly content going into the 2006 season with Bubba Crosby as his starting CF'er.

Like then, the hole and need for that #2 type starter now is just too blatant to ignore. Every one of the quality starters that are up for grabs this winter will be getting "over-paid" by somebody. So very generally speaking here, if the Yankees are going to be pissing away a big chunk of money any way you slice it, why not on the guy that gives you the best chance to win now and in the near future?

[jon abbey]

So very generally speaking here, if the Yankees are going to be pissing away a big chunk of money any way you slice it, why not on the guy that gives you the best chance to win now and in the near future?

Because in two of the past four seasons, that guy has been AJ Burnett and John Lackey. We've all seen that big money deals to non-ace SPs can backfire in numerous ways, one of which is loss of flexibility going forward (monetarily, but more importantly in NY's case, the clogging of a rotation spot).

Cashman didn't panic last offseason after losing Lee and having Pettitte retire, and I don't think he's going to now. He's not going to sign someone long-term unless he really, really likes them.

[MikeM]

Cashman didn't panic last offseason after losing Lee and having Pettitte retire, and I don't think he's going to now. He's not going to sign someone long-term unless he really, really likes them.

Well, one could argue that was basically an all-or-nothing situation playing out with Lee, and then point out that $35m you spent on Soriano after-the-fact. Had Lee not spurned you, that latter deal never happens imo. But don't get me wrong either, as i get what you are saying in that. I just personally believe NY is beyond the point of ideal caution here, and that it's a pretty safe bet that one of the free agent pitchers out there will be getting less-then-ideal contract from them this winter.

For all advanced metrics and general theory being thrown around in the pre-evaluations on whether or not CJ would be a good signing, not enough is being backed by the 2 most important realities that should/need to be accepted in the speculation process (imo) . The first being an acceptance that any top tier free agent starting pitcher you sign is going to have to come at the expense of a "bad" contract, and the second being that the alternative here to *not* signing that free agent isn't "doing something else" as much as it likely translates into doing nothing at all (in terms of attempting to address the 2 hole, and unless you guys get lucky enough where somebody offers you up both the guy *and* the opportunity to trade away all your best prospects. And be ready to stand in line waiting on that one).


Bottomline, sometimes there's "value" found in the stuff that you just can't calculate out into a numerical equation. This being one of those scenarios, imo. If Cashman ends up being sold that CJ Wilson can spend a few years being the solution to his current #2 problem, and feel free to mark my words here, an extra less-then-ideal year isn't going to be a deal-breaker there. Barring an outside offer that simply blows the rest of the competitive field away, or a financial bomb being dropped on Yu Darvish, it's just too easy a fit.

[Doctor G]

I think they will wait for Darvish, and will use the delay in his being posted to feign disinterest based on Igawa and Daisuke
experience to try to lower the expected posting fee.
Darvish will sell a lot more expensive tickets than Wilson, and is a lot younger.

[crow216]

I would love to see what kind of revenue Dice-k brought in for the Sox. I would bet that the advertisements and merchandise alone paid for his posting fee.

[EvilEmpire]

Advertising maybe, but I'm pretty sure that merchandise profits are split among teams.

[crow216]

Advertising maybe, but I'm pretty sure that merchandise profits are split among teams.

Just curious because you'd have to assume that Darvish would bring along some of that as well which would somewhat mitigate the outrageous posting fee. I've never been clear on the merchandising rules though.

[Jed Zeppelin]

As far as I remember, EvilEmpire is right. It was discussed here ad nauseum in the process of trying to figure out whether the Daisuke acquisition really did pay for itself through alternate revenue opportunities. Merchandising isn't the only thing in play, but I don't know that advertising boosts from Japan and things like that are easily quantifiable, if at all. The writers will say it pays for itself and beyond unless/until Darvish disappoints, at which point one of those same writers will print that the team overestimated the extra value he would bring.

Edited by Jed Zeppelin, 17 November 2011 - 03:01 AM.

[Wingack]

http://www.nydailyne...rticle-1.978927

After wasting $46 million on Kei Igawa over the past five years, would the Yankees be willing to roll the dice on another Japanese pitcher if Yu Darvish becomes available?

It’s very possible.

Hal Steinbrenner said Wednesday that the Igawa disaster wouldn’t stop the Yankees from signing another Japanese pitcher if that’s the move they believe makes the most sense.

“Every person is different; every player is different,” Steinbrenner said. “We’re going to look at every single one. We’re going to look at every single option, and we’re going to analyze it. It will be a go or no-go, but we look at each person as an individual.”

...

Darvish, a 25-year-old considered to be one of the best pitchers available on the free-agent market this winter, will likely command a financial commitment similar to the one the Red Sox made to Matsuzaka, a significant risk to any team that takes that gamble.

“It’s difficult when you don’t have as much film on a player to watch, and you don’t have as many scouts who have laid eyes on that player before,” Steinbrenner said of the risk associated with signing players from places such as Japan or Cuba. “There’s no doubt it’s difficult, but I had never heard of El Duque until he came here.

“There have certainly been players that came out of those countries that have been great. But there’s less intel and there’s less to go on, so you’ve really got to rely on the guys that have seen him down there, and the scouts that are down there on a full-time basis. But there’s no doubt it’s a more difficult decision.”

This article makes me think the Yankees are going to put a very competitive bid in for Darvish.

[Doctor G]

I wouldn't be surprised to seeDarvishwait on a possible change to the posting system. If MLB and NPB negotiate a different system for allowing players to sign with MLB clubs, Darvish will make a lot more money.

A system that allowed open bidding for the player as a free agent with an inherent posting fee included in the bid would seem to be fairer to the player and to the Japanese club.
Something along the lines of posting fee equals the total in US dollars of the players 2 highest paid seasons in NPB plus the average yearly value of his contract with MLB team.
The posting fee would also be subject to luxury tax in regard to the portion derived from the AAV in MLB. I think if you did this for NPB players after 6 years In NPB it would take away the indentured servitude aspect of the present system for Japanese players.

In addition I would allow Japanese imports to be free agents in MLB after 3 years.

Edited by Doctor G, 17 November 2011 - 06:28 PM.

[Wingack]

Apparently the Braves are interested in Nunez and the Daily News speculates about a deal of Nunez and Swisher for Jair Jurrjens.

If I am Cashman I am all over that deal, as I believe Jurrjens is just as good as anything he can find on the FA market.

[SemperFidelisSox]

Heyman said Atlanta would be looking for a Greinke-type deal for Jurrjens.

Nunez and Swish isn't gonna get it done.

[jon abbey]

Moving Swisher leaves a hole NY has no one to fill, so that would mean signing someone like Beltran too. ATL isn't getting a big haul for Jurrjens, whose velocity dropped a ton last year:

http://www.fangraphs...tion=P&pitch=FA

That's a huge red flag, I'd stay away unless the price was really cheap, Nunez/Romine level cheap.