370 replies to this topic

[Lars The Wanderer]

Re: Matt Cain

Grant Brisbee wrote a good article about Cain at McCovey Chronicles.

He allowed fewer homers this year, which temporarily sated the xFIP hounds, but otherwise it was a very Cain year. As Cain as they get, except for the one before that and the one before that. He is freakishly consistent. Only five pitchers have thrown more than 200 innings with an above average ERA+ every season over the last five years:

CC Sabathia
Dan Haren
Roy Halladay
Matt F. Cain
Mark Buehrle

But Cain doesn't just have an above average ERA+ -- he's much better that. His lowest ERA+ since 2007 is 118. So if you up the ERA+ requirements on that list to pitchers with an ERA of 110 or better in those five seasons with 200 IP

CC Sabathia
Roy Halladay
Matt M.F. Cain

[Meff Nelton]

Re: Matt Cain

Grant Brisbee wrote a good article about Cain at McCovey Chronicles.

The difficulty comes in trying to extricate his performance from his environment. AT&T and the NL West in conjunction might literally be the perfect habitat for an extreme flyball pitcher who lives off of keeping them in the ballpark at an extreme outlying rate. The idea of him facing the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers and Tigers 60+ games a year while playing half his games in Yankee Stadium bothers me greatly.

[melonbag]

The idea of him facing the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers and Tigers 60+ games a year while playing half his games in Yankee Stadium bothers me greatly.

I remember how Jake Peavy looked unhittable with the Padres. I remember reading a rumor that the Yankee FO wasn't sure how he'd fare against the AL East. I disagreed at the time, but I think they were right. And then I remember how Ian Kennedy was struggling to be a #5 starter, and now he's a Cy Young finalist in the NL West. So yes, I can easily imagine Cain being a different pitcher in the AL East.

[Lars The Wanderer]

It is academic anyway.

For those on the Matt Cain bandwagon, I heard the Giants have made it so clear they are not trading him that the Yankees have not asked about the righty in “years.”

[jon abbey]

Yeah, I linked that article a few posts back. I'm not sure that's definitive proof he's not going anywhere, Sherman's inside Yankee info is generally pretty reliable, but it's certainly a possibility that Cain is more available now that he's just one year from possible free agency.

[Brickowski]

How do folks here evaluate Oswalt? The Phillies just declined his option. Yes, he had a fairly crappy year-- and that was in the NL-- but IMHO if healthy he could be a decent pickup for any team in need of starting pitching, even teams in the AL East.

[glennhoffmania]

I think the Yankees should sign Reyes, move Jeter to 3b, and move A-Rod to DH.

I know I'm late to the party, but I don't see this happening. However, if they did sign Reyes, it would be fascinating to see who replaces him when he goes down with his annual hamstring-related DL trips.

[nvalvo]

Yeah, I linked that article a few posts back. I'm not sure that's definitive proof he's not going anywhere, Sherman's inside Yankee info is generally pretty reliable, but it's certainly a possibility that Cain is more available now that he's just one year from possible free agency.

I doubt it. The Giants have to be in GFIN mode while they have this rotation together. They've won one title, and missed the playoffs basically because of the difference between Buster Posey and Eli Whiteside. Next year, they should get Posey back, sign or trade for an actual shortstop, and be ready to contend.

They are very close, and trading Cain would be a big step back. For them to part with him, the return would need to be something on the order of a competent starting shortstop plus prospects equivalent to Type A FA compensation. I don't see anyone offering that.

[jon abbey]

They are very close, and trading Cain would be a big step back. For them to part with him, the return would need to be something on the order of a competent starting shortstop plus prospects equivalent to Type A FA compensation. I don't see anyone offering that.

NY has Nunez, so could be a good match according to what you're saying.

[BellhornIsGod]

NY has Nunez, so could be a good match according to what you're saying.

The same Eduardo Nunez that put up a .265/.313/.385 (.698 OPS) line at age 24 while making 20 errors in 81 starts at three infield positions? And has a .274/.318/.369 (.687 OPS) clip in ~2800 minor league plate appearances?

Nunez may develop into a starting shortstop at some point but the odds of that are not great. Unless Montero and one of Betances/Banuelos is part of that deal I just cannot fathom the Giants pulling the trigger when they are legitimate contenders next season.

And for the record if I'm the Yankees I do not pay a price that steep when I can just get Cain next off season.

[abty]

I am confident that nobody would trade a Matt Cain for Eduardo Nunez. Would you? Montero, minimum, because they need real offense and Cain is a huge part of their past success and 2012 rotation. I've seen him pitch for years, he's more valuable to them than people realize.

[glennhoffmania]

Is Posey not coming back? Where would Montero play for them?

[jon abbey]

Nunez to me has a fair amount of upside if he can get consistent playing time somewhere, although I agree it's not reflected in his stats thus far. He also is one of the fastest runners in the game, and would likely steal 50+ bases as an every day player. His defense also improved decidedly as the year went along, the bulk of his errors were in the first part of the season. I'm not saying that he's worth Matt Cain, but I am saying that with the state of MLB shortstops as bad as it is currently, I think he's a valuable asset who's only going to improve going forward, especially if he gets a fulltime chance somewhere.

[glennhoffmania]

Nunez to me has a fair amount of upside if he can get consistent playing time somewhere, although I agree it's not reflected in his stats thus far. He also is one of the fastest runners in the game, and would likely steal 50+ bases as an every day player. His defense also improved decidedly as the year went along, the bulk of his errors were in the first part of the season. I'm not saying that he's worth Matt Cain, but I am saying that with the state of MLB shortstops as bad as it is currently, I think he's a valuable asset who's only going to improve going forward, especially if he gets a fulltime chance somewhere.

I was curious about this so I looked up his stats. If you take his steals and extrapolate the numbers out to a 150 game season, his highest total would've been 35 in A ball in '07. Since then he's been in the 20s, including 2011 with the Yankees.

[BellhornIsGod]

Is Posey not coming back? Where would Montero play for them?

Posey is in line to be ready to come back next year but between his serious leg injury, and Montero's questions at catcher and immense upside with the bat I've got imagine that they'd gladly take a Montero/Posey combo at 1B/C and permanently move Brandon Belt to the outfield.

If Cain is indeed traded they need a Montero type "can't miss" bat and they can figure out the position crunch later.

[jon abbey]

He had 22 SBs last year in 309 ABs, so maybe 50 is high, but 40-45 is certainly pretty possible.

Dunno, maybe I'm being irrationally optimistic, but to me he seems like someone who's still developing and has a fair amount of potential if he gets a real chance somewhere. I think Cashman thinks the same thing, as he showed by refusing to throw him in for Cliff Lee in mid-2010.

[glennhoffmania]

I'm not saying he can't do it. I was just curious what he's done so far.

[terrynever]

I am hoping Nunez succeeds Jeter at SS in 2014, and is available to back up Jeter and others for the next two years, just as he did in 2011. Yanks need a good bench guy like Nunez who plays with youth and speed and energy, something the roster currently lacks. Who is Nunez's replacement if they trade him away?

Yanks brass meeting this week in Tampa. They seem to want to make a deal with CC before he opts out. Maybe they go after Oswalt. I just don't see them trading Montero, not when the offense kept coming up one base hit short in the playoffs. I say Montero is more valuable to the Yankees' offense than he is asz trade bait for a quality starter. Maybe Montero is a guy who can hit quality pitching. I can't say the Yankees have much of that, either. They feast on mediocre pitching in the regular season. But who among them hits quality pitching?

Edited by terrynever, 26 October 2011 - 12:46 PM.

[jon abbey]

I am hoping Nunez succeeds Jeter at SS in 2014, and is available to back up Jeter and others for the next two years, just as he did in 2011. Yanks need a good bench guy like Nunez who plays with youth and speed and energy, something the roster currently lacks. Who is Nunez's replacement if they trade him away?

Ramiro Pena for now, who's a worse hitter but better defensive player, and someone not currently in the organization once Jeter is finally done. I'm not saying they should give Nunez away, I like him a lot, but he's one of their best chips if a top SP becomes available.

[glennhoffmania]

You guys are crazy. They're going to rip up Jeter's player option and give him a 3/48 extension so he can finish his career as the NY SS in 2016.

[terrynever]

You guys are crazy. They're going to rip up Jeter's player option and give him a 3/48 extension so he can finish his career as the NY SS in 2016.

I hear Jeter wants to keep playing until Paterno quits coaching at my alma mater.

[terrynever]

Ramiro Pena for now, who's a worse hitter but better defensive player, and someone not currently in the organization once Jeter is finally done. I'm not saying they should give Nunez away, I like him a lot, but he's one of their best chips if a top SP becomes available.

I say keep Montero at all costs. Trade young pitchers (Banuelos, Betances) if they must. Put Gardner in a package if he fits another team's needs. Gardner is highly rated by Charlie Manuel, among others.

Here's a thought. Cole Hamels is a free agent after next season. Maybe the Yankees and Phillies could figure something out as they are done with Ibanez now. The Phillies might want Nunez as Rollins is a FA and there's some speculation that Philly might let him go. Gardner, Nunez and Banuelos for Hamels ... Is that too much?

[jon abbey]

Here's a thought. Cole Hamels is a free agent after next season. Maybe the Yankees and Phillies could figure something out as they are done with Ibanez now. The Phillies might want Nunez as Rollins is a FA and there's some speculation that Philly might let him go. Gardner, Nunez and Banuelos for Hamels ... Is that too much?

It's intriguing, but you're moving three low-cost guys, taking on another big salary, and opening up at least one hole (LF) that will need to be filled somehow with no real internal options around.

[rembrat]

The only way that isn't too much is if you get to extend Hamels as part of the trade. If it's just for a 1 year thing and he wants to test the FA waters then yea, I'd say it's way too much.

[terrynever]

It's intriguing, but you're moving three low-cost guys, taking on another big salary, and opening up at least one hole (LF) that will need to be filled somehow with no real internal options around.

Yep, you and Rem both make good points. I have a buddy who covers the Phillies and he says Amaro wants to fix the offense first. Amaro has made some interesting moves in his first three years as GM. I would keep an eye on Philly doing something dynamic. Hooking up with the Yankees is probably a long-shot, but trades sometimes begin with a field manager coveting another player.

And yes, I know Philly's offense put up some good NL numbers but it is the big worry for the fans and the front office, trying to avoid the team slumps that affect them from time to time. Howard's inability to hit lefties (.634 OPS) is a real killer, especially in the postseason.

Edited by terrynever, 26 October 2011 - 02:53 PM.

[melonbag]

I really don't like the idea of giving up Gardner or Banuelos for someone in their walk year. You can just wait another season for him to become a FA.

[Kid T]

I'm not sure I understand the deal from Philly's side. They are going for it, the same as the Yankees and Red Sox. It's also easier to find a replacement OF'er in the FA market than a SP. And, if they aren't able to re-sign Oswalt at a lower price, they would then need to fill 2 SP slots.

[terrynever]

I'm not sure I understand the deal from Philly's side. They are going for it, the same as the Yankees and Red Sox. It's also easier to find a replacement OF'er in the FA market than a SP. And, if they aren't able to re-sign Oswalt at a lower price, they would then need to fill 2 SP slots.

Quite true. Only thing I can say is Amaro isn't afraid to pull the trigger. Didn't he trade Cliff Lee to Seattle after they lost the 2009 World Series?

[jon abbey]

Quite true. Only thing I can say is Amaro isn't afraid to pull the trigger. Didn't he trade Cliff Lee to Seattle after they lost the 2009 World Series?

Yes, one of the dumbest moves anyone's made in recent years.

[Brickowski]

I would consider Banuelos almost as untouchable as Montero. I like Gardner, but he can be repalced. So can Nunez.

Throw a pile of money at Oswalt this year, and a pile of money at Hamels (or Cain) next year. The Steinbrenners can afford it.

[jon abbey]

The Steinbrenners can afford it.

Not to pick on you because everyone says this kind of thing, but this is the laziest kind of statement to make about the current Yankees. This is a team whose payroll for 2013 (not next year) is already at $124 million for just six players (using CC's current salary), $152M for eight players if you assume the Cano and Granderson options are exercised.

So, of course they can afford to spend more money when needed, but throwing big bucks at a #3/#4 guy in Oswalt is not the answer (you could argue he's better than this, but I'm not a fan), and they can't really afford to be giving new eight figure (per year) deals to anyone who is not an impact superstar, certainly not for multiple years. The trick is to keep fielding a championship level team while not letting the payroll balloon even further.

No one ever mentions it, but the only big money deal that Cashman has voluntarily made in the last two offseasons was resigning Rivera for two years. We all know he was against the Soriano move, and it would have been fascinating to see how the Jeter negotiations would have gone if Cashman had total power there. The Teixeira move was a coup at the time, both strengthening NY and hurting Boston, but it also put NY in a situation where they had very little long-term flexibility, which is what Cashman has been trying to work through ever since.

[Meff Nelton]

Not to pick on you because everyone says this kind of thing, but this is the laziest kind of statement to make about the current Yankees. This is a team whose payroll for 2013 (not next year) is already at $124 million for just six players (using CC's current salary), $152M for eight players if you assume the Cano and Granderson options are exercised.

So, of course they can afford to spend more money when needed, but throwing big bucks at a #3/#4 guy in Oswalt is not the answer (you could argue he's better than this, but I'm not a fan), and they can't really afford to be giving new eight figure (per year) deals to anyone who is not an impact superstar, certainly not for multiple years. The trick is to keep fielding a championship level team while not letting the payroll balloon even further.

No one ever mentions it, but the only big money deal that Cashman has voluntarily made in the last two offseasons was resigning Rivera for two years. We all know he was against the Soriano move, and it would have been fascinating to see how the Jeter negotiations would have gone if Cashman had total power there. The Teixeira move was a coup at the time, both strengthening NY and hurting Boston, but it also put NY in a situation where they had very little long-term flexibility, which is what Cashman has been trying to work through ever since.

But isn't it better to throw money at a free agent rather than throwing money and your best MiLB talent at a player on a one year deal? Would the Yankees let Hamels/Cain (ugh, still the not happening Cain discussion) walk after 2012?

If you have the chips to make a difference (I think Montero is, and Sanchez might be; Banuelos and Betances et al are lottery tickets,) you are saving so much more money by letting them develop into stars.

Edited by Meff Nelton, 26 October 2011 - 08:00 PM.

[jon abbey]

But isn't it better to throw money at a free agent rather than throwing money and your best MiLB talent at a player on a one year deal? Would the Yankees let Hamels/Cain (ugh, still the not happening Cain discussion) walk after 2012?

If you have the chips to make a difference (I think Montero is, and Sanchez might be; Banuelos and Betances et al are lottery tickets,) you are saving so much more money by letting them develop into stars.

Yeah, you're saying almost the exact same thing as me here, but in a different way. The danger of course is that those top pitchers don't make it to free agency, or they don't sign with NY once they do (like Cliff Lee), but what you're saying is the reason that Cashman hasn't dealt a single impact prospect since the Granderson deal.

But my point is NY can't really afford (because of the payroll commitments they already have) to give a huge deal to someone because they're the best guy available (like AJ Burnett was at the time, CJ Wilson may be in this category also), they need to hold out for legitimate superstars. The 2009 offseason was unique because not only were two legitimate superstars available in CC and Tex, but NY had just missed the playoffs for the first time in a decade-plus and was worried about selling wildly overpriced tickets in their new stadium. Winning another title in 2009 bought them time to not have to make semi-desperate moves like that again unless they believed they made sense both short-term and long-term, and that's why I think NY has passed on every big FA for the last two years and may do so again, depending on what they think of Wilson and Darvish.

[terrynever]

Those last two posts are pretty insightful and represent what a lot of us are thinking but probably not able to say so well. I definitely want to keep Montero and any other young hitter sitting farther down in the farm system. This team's offense worries me down the road. The older players seem to be losing bat speed, and you notice this only when Montero comes up, or when you watch Nunez swing a bat.

I could see trading Banuelos for a strong starter who would stick around for a few seasons. Maybe he is a lottery ticket. Pitching is such a crap shoot. Manny's walk totals last season were a little scary. Still, I would love to see him in pinstripes by next summer. That's the fan in me talking.

[Brickowski]

Banuelos has talent and throws from the left side. Very valuable commodity. If you don't want to throw money at free agents, fine. But don't trade your young pitching.

[Guero]

Yankees pick up both Swisher and Cano options. Star-Ledger

[jon abbey]

Cots already has those in:

https://spreadsheets...jLQ&output=html

So that puts NY at $174M for 2012 right now, probably in the $185M-$190M range after arb cases (Martin, Joba, Hughes, Gardner, Robertson). That includes CC at $24.2M for 2012, so that will probably go up a bit if he re-signs, or disappear entirely if he ends up elsewhere.

NY has been just over $210M the last two years (Cots has them at $207M for 2011, but that doesn't include around $3M in met incentives by Garcia for some reason), but could end up lower next year if they don't land Darvish or Wilson (or trade for a big money SP). Their everyday lineup is set, probably two bench spots too:

Martin
Tex
Cano
Jeter
A-Rod
Gardner
Granderson
Swisher
Montero

Nunez
Cervelli?

So that leaves 2-3 bench spots, I think they'd like Jones and Chavez back at the right price. Chavez had planned on retiring but the latest reports have him not sure.

[jon abbey]

The pitching staff is where they'll try to upgrade:

CC (for now)
Nova
Hughes
Burnett
Noesi/Warren/Phelps/Banuelos/Betances

Obviously Darvish or Wilson in the #2 spot behind CC would make that look a lot better, and let those other five guys work on whatever they need to in a stacked Scranton rotation. Burnett's deal expires after 2013, so you could make an argument for NY signing a big money SP both this winter and next, with one year of overlap before Burnett's deal is done.

Wade
Logan
Soriano
Robertson
Rivera

On DL, possibly back at some point midseason: Feliciano, Joba

So 1-2 open spots, including a long guy.

[Clears Cleaver]

Wilson shat the bed all postseason. Do you really wAnt him?

[Wingack]

Nope.

[jon abbey]

He's not ideal and of course it depends somewhat on the price, but he is a LHP who has managed to put up great numbers over the last two years playing in an extreme hitters' park. He's also pitched great against Boston, 4 ERs allowed in 5 starts against them in 2010/2011. Of course, Burnett pitched great against Boston before coming to NY also, so who knows.

[melonbag]

Wilson shat the bed all postseason. Do you really wAnt him?

Do we want him at the price that he will command in the open market? NO.

We need to make moves with the post season in mind. And we have enough guys who disappear in the playoffs.

[jon abbey]

I'd happily sign him at a Burnett/Lackey level deal, more than that I'm less sure about. His postseason numbers overall aren't as bad as people think, and they're better than Sabathia's postseason numbers over the past two seasons (CC has allowed a .961 collective OPS in 24.2 IP, yikes). Are you also advocating not signing CC? For those who don't want Wilson, what is your proposed rotation?

And what does it even mean to make offseason moves "with the postseason in mind"? A-Rod was awful in the postseason for years until 2009, when he was a one-man wrecking crew, same with Sabathia in 2009, same with Barry Bonds in 2002. Jim Leyritz and Scott Brosius are still free agents, I guess...

[jon abbey]

NY never seems to offer arb in recent years, but they should definitely offer it to Freddy Garcia, who was named a type B FA today, and will likely get multi-year offers somewhere based on his very strong 2011. He shouldn't cost that much on a one year deal if he accepts, maybe $6-7M?

I guess the only possible downside is Garcia accepting, CC coming back, and NY being dead set on acquiring Wilson or Darvish, which would seem to leave Phil Hughes the odd man out (CC/Wilson-Darvish/Nova/Garcia/Burnett), but that's a lot of ifs and Garcia would be solid insurance against some of those other guys falling through, and he's already proven he can do it in NY. I think it would be a major mistake to not offer him arb, although the beat writers seem to think NY won't.

[Rough Carrigan]

I'd happily sign him at a Burnett/Lackey level deal, more than that I'm less sure about. His postseason numbers overall aren't as bad as people think, and they're better than Sabathia's postseason numbers over the past two seasons (CC has allowed a .961 collective OPS in 24.2 IP, yikes). Are you also advocating not signing CC? For those who don't want Wilson, what is your proposed rotation?

And what does it even mean to make offseason moves "with the postseason in mind"? A-Rod was awful in the postseason for years until 2009, when he was a one-man wrecking crew, same with Sabathia in 2009, same with Barry Bonds in 2002. Jim Leyritz and Scott Brosius are still free agents, I guess...

Well, with pitchers, it could be a matter of whether or not they wear down. Wilson got knocked around a bit both of the last two years in the playoffs. But, I was actually watching for that, looking to see if he would show something that seemed like a telltale sign of being tired and I don't really remember seeing anything despite probably have a confirmation bias waiting to happen as I was trying to find it.

My only other comment in regard to Wilson would be that, yes, the ballpark in Texas is a very strong hitter's park. But it's also a stronger hitter's park for lefthanded hitters over whom Wilson had the platoon edge.

[melonbag]

I'd happily sign him at a Burnett/Lackey level deal, more than that I'm less sure about.

I'm hoping that the FO feels differently. With CC signed, I think they don't feel like they're backed in a corner to make a move.

I wouldn't want Wilson for a package similar to what Jered Weaver just signed. And I have a feeling that whichever team signs him will end up regretting it.

[melonbag]

And what does it even mean to make offseason moves "with the postseason in mind"? A-Rod was awful in the postseason for years until 2009, when he was a one-man wrecking crew

You answered your own question by bringing up ARod.

[jon abbey]

You answered your own question by bringing up ARod.

Huh? Which way? He's killed them in a bunch of series, but also they don't come close to winning in 2009 without him.

So for those who don't want Wilson or Darvish, what's your proposal to upgrade the rotation? The flaw with the team is still no #2 SP, CC/Nova/Hughes/Burnett/Garcia or Noesi likely means another postseason loss at best.

[Wingack]

Huh? Which way? He's killed them in a bunch of series, but also they don't come close to winning in 2009 without him.

So for those who don't want Wilson or Darvish, what's your proposal to upgrade the rotation? The flaw with the team is still no #2 SP, CC/Nova/Hughes/Burnett/Garcia or Noesi likely means another postseason loss at best.

Darvish is appealing to me, just not Wilson.

I also don't really think they lost in the ALDS because they didn't have a No. 2, I point the finger more towards the offense.

[jon abbey]

I also don't really think they lost in the ALDS because they didn't have a No. 2, I point the finger more towards the offense.

Sure, but even if they get a few clutch hits and win that series, they likely would have been destroyed by Texas in the ALCS with Nova out.

I like Darvish too, but he's right handed and unproven in MLB as of yet. I'd be happy with either, though.