370 replies to this topic

[jon abbey]

Heyman just tweeted on Wilson:

"Cj wilson is going to be very rich. Yankees, red sox, nats, others expected to try for him. (He's good but no ace imo)"

[rembrat]

That seems about right but he might be worth it. In his 2 years as a starter he put up better ERAs away than he did at home. 134+ and 152+. He could do some damage in a pitchers park like YS3.

The only reason I mention not picking up Swisher's option because a few guys are going to get bumps like Gardner and Robertson as they head into arb for the 1st time.

[Kid T]

Question: Why wouldnt the Yankees let Swisher walk, find a cheaper solution to RF

Have you seen the "options" available on the FA market for OF's? Not very desirable. If let Swisher walk, he might be the top RF FA.

[rembrat]

Have you seen the "options" available on the FA market for OF's? Not very desirable. If let Swisher walk, he might be the top RF FA.

The Yankees have always had a boner for David DeJesus. He is a perfect buy low guy. And he gives the Yankees some flex because he can play multiple OF spots in a pinch.

[jon abbey]

The Yankees have always had a boner for David DeJesus. He is a perfect buy low guy. And he gives the Yankees some flex because he can play multiple OF spots in a pinch.

He can't hit lefties, .690 OPS for his career and a frightening .459 this year. Also, Swisher can't play CF or LF, but he is a solid backup 1B.

[ThePrideofShiner]

That seems about right but he might be worth it. In his 2 years as a starter he put up better ERAs away than he did at home. 134+ and 152+. He could do some damage in a pitchers park like YS3.

The only reason I mention not picking up Swisher's option because a few guys are going to get bumps like Gardner and Robertson as they head into arb for the 1st time.

If the Yankees let Swisher go, wouldn't the Red Sox go after him? I could see that as being another reason they pick up his option.

[rembrat]

Swisher in Fenway's RF? No, thanks.

[FanSinceBoggs]

I don't know if C.J. Wilson is Brian Cashman's kind of guy, and he isn't exactly making a name for himself in the postseason. If the Yankees don't want Wilson, the question remains: where will the Yankees find another starting pitcher? The free agent market is thin. That brings us back to the argument by Harper--the Yankees may look to trade Montero for a starting pitcher: http://www.nydailyne...ading_chip.html

Trading Montero for a starting pitcher and using free agency to obtain either Reyes or Fielder (I think Reyes makes more sense) might be the Yankees best offseason strategy.

Even though I openly admit that Cashman is a better general manager than Epstein, who has absolutely no instincts for free agency, the Red Sox do enter the offseason with one major advantage over the Yankees: the Red Sox have a stronger starting rotation at the top with Lester, Beckett, and Buchholz. Whereas the Yankees need to find another top starting pitcher to go along with Sabathia.

Edited by FanSinceBoggs, 09 October 2011 - 09:53 AM.

[jon abbey]

I did a rough estimate in my head of NY's 2012 salary situation last night, and have them at around $193M after they retain Cano/Swisher (options), Sabathia (assuming he'll be around the same salary, just more years), and Martin/Robertson/Hughes/Gardner (all arb-eligible). They've been at $211M and $207M the past two seasons.

That does leave them room for one big money FA if they want, but I don't see that being anyone but Wilson or maybe Darvish. If they did manage to land a stud pitcher for Montero (unlikely IMO), I think they'd wait out the market for help at DH, a bit like TB did last year with Manny and Damon.

[Drew Peacock]

The Yankees should look at signing Roy Oswalt for two years. It won't cripple them years down the line like Wilson or Darvish. Then after next year they could go on a spending spree like after 2008 and sign Matt Kemp and one of Greinke/Cain/Hamels. Next year the rotation would be CC, Oswalt, Nova, Burnett, and Hughes. They could also bring back Garcia for one more year and put Hughes back in the bullpen. The lineup and bullpen is pretty much set and I think the Yankees believe they should only sign truly great pitchers long term (Sabathia) instead of pretty good pitchers (Burnett).

[Montana Fan]

Is it a given that CC opts out and if he does, that the Yankees absolutely sign him? The resign him at any cost thing didn't work out so good with A-Rod and CC will likely begin the downside of his career shortly. Especially when you consider the shape he keeps himself in. His arm might be solid but I'd be worried about his lower half if I were a Yankee fan.

I can't help but think the deal the Yanks currently have in place with CC will be hard to top. I'd offer to add a year to his contract and attempt to put the opt out to bed.

[abty]

Where on earth would the Giants put him? They have a catcher who is better than Montero. He pretty much has to go to the AL.

They could trade fat panda and teach him first base - or - since Cain is leaving anyway, turn Montero into a player or two via 3 way trade. Personally, they are so bad offensively I think they'd find a way to make it work for him not to mention the fact that Posey might not be catching for much longer after what happened this year. They'd find a way to make it work and it's worth considering, if you are San Fran, instead of trotting out the crap they do every day. Nobody is coming back in a trade with higher upside than Montero.

[Kid T]

The Yankees should look at signing Roy Oswalt for two years. It won't cripple them years down the line like Wilson or Darvish. Then after next year they could go on a spending spree like after 2008 and sign Matt Kemp and one of Greinke/Cain/Hamels. Next year the rotation would be CC, Oswalt, Nova, Burnett, and Hughes. They could also bring back Garcia for one more year and put Hughes back in the bullpen. The lineup and bullpen is pretty much set and I think the Yankees believe they should only sign truly great pitchers long term (Sabathia) instead of pretty good pitchers (Burnett).

IIRC, Oswalt isn't a FA. The Phillies hold an (albeit expensive) option on him for 2012. Regardless, even if they didn't pick up the option, I could see him re-signing in Philly where he seems to enjoy the atmosphere.

edit: He has a $16 million option the Phillies are unlikely to exercise. The article does note that he might be likely to sign at a below market deal if he enjoys his Phillies experience.

Edited by Kid T, 09 October 2011 - 05:08 PM.

[Meff Nelton]

I really don't understand people banging the 'trade Montero' drum. Here we have a super-young prospect with 3+ years of pre-arb status who was compared to the likes of Frank Thomas, Manny Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera. He comes up, and in his first cup of coffee (an admittedly very small sample size,) hits like in-prime Frank Thomas, Manny Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera. And people think he should be traded for Matt Cain's most expensive and final arb season?

I know he can still washout. There's no guarantees of super stardom, and I don't want to give off a false impression that there is. But I'm not trading Jesus Montero for anybody short of an established elite young player with multiple arb years remaining, or at least a few years of a mildly below market contract. Which is a deal you almost never find. If you have the money, why would you trade elite talent for short years at near-free agency prices?

[jon abbey]

If you have the money, why would you trade elite talent for short years at near-free agency prices?

Because you think he's a DH, and it's not that hard to get competent production from the DH spot? I'm also not really into trading Montero, but if you can get a legit #2 guy to slot behind Sabathia for him and you don't think Montero can play C competently, you have to seriously consider it.

[Meff Nelton]

Because you think he's a DH, and it's not that hard to get competent production from the DH spot? I'm also not really into trading Montero, but if you can get a legit #2 guy to slot behind Sabathia for him and you don't think Montero can play C competently, you have to seriously consider it.

If he's one of the very best pitchers in baseball, and has at least two years remaining (and isn't overpaid.) This kid has a bat that projects to possibly being one of the very best in the majors. DH or not, you find a place to play somebody like that, especially when you're only going to pay him, what, $40 million tops over the next six years. And if all the Yankees have to do is wait a year for a great crop of free agent starters, just be patient, and lose nobody.

Would you trade Montero for one year of Cain at $15 million, before even considering leaving AT&T and the NL?

[Brianish]

compared to the likes of Frank Thomas, Manny Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera. He comes up, and in his first cup of coffee (an admittedly very small sample size,) hits like in-prime Frank Thomas, Manny Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera.

This is why, right here. The odds that this guy is ACTUALLY Frank Thomas, Manny Ramirez, or Miguel Cabrera are incredibly small. So right now, this instant, might very well be his highest value.

(Also, Cain signed an extension before 2010. He's not in arb).

[Meff Nelton]

This is why, right here. The odds that this guy is ACTUALLY Frank Thomas, Manny Ramirez, or Miguel Cabrera are incredibly small. So right now, this instant, might very well be his highest value.

(Also, Cain signed an extension before 2010. He's not in arb).

This is true of the nature of prospects. However, of all people with rookie status, Montero has the best odds of hitting that level than anyone other than Harper. This has incredible value, especially when you're paying him nothing.

I'm not saying don't trade him under any circumstances, but don't do it for one season of anybody. And if you find a player worth doing it for, you should at least be getting a discount contract-wise versus what you would pay on the market. I know Cain's in the final year of an arb buyout.

[Brianish]

This is true of the nature of prospects. However, of all people with rookie status, Montero has the best odds of hitting that level than anyone other than Harper. This has incredible value, especially when you're paying him nothing.

But that's the point, isn't it? What he's got right now - potential - has incredible value. They know that for a fact. They don't necessarily know what he'll have in a year or two.

(I don't actually think they should trade him. I'm just saying; that's probably the best reason).

[Meff Nelton]

But that's the point, isn't it? What he's got right now - potential - has incredible value. They know that for a fact. They don't necessarily know what he'll have in a year or two.

(I don't actually think they should trade him. I'm just saying; that's probably the best reason).

I think we generally have the same viewpoint. The one addendum I would make is that his current value might not match up with the available market. And if you can't maximize this value, shouldn't you absorb the risk and find out what you have?

[jon abbey]

The thing is that guys like Cain don't get to the FA market much these days, and especially not at his age (just turned 27). Of the potential FA classes of this winter and next combined, the highlights are CJ Wilson (this year), Darvish (in his own category of Dice-rolling), and Cain/Hamels/Greinke next winter. If I was picking from those, Cain might be behind only Hamels for NY, maybe Wilson too because he's a LHP. If you are worried about the years, maybe insist on coupling it with an extension? Would you trade Montero for Hamels even up?

But I don't really buy it from the SF end, unless they're convinced he can play 1B based on no actual evidence.

[Meff Nelton]

The thing is that guys like Cain don't get to the FA market much these days, and especially not at his age (just turned 27). Of the potential FA classes of this winter and next combined, the highlights are CJ Wilson (this year), Darvish (in his own category of Dice-rolling), and Cain/Hamels/Greinke next winter. If I was picking from those, Cain might be behind only Hamels for NY, maybe Wilson too because he's a LHP. If you are worried about the years, maybe insist on coupling it with an extension? Would you trade Montero for Hamels even up?

But I don't really buy it from the SF end, unless they're convinced he can play 1B based on no actual evidence.

Well, if you isolate the control to guys going into their final year of team control, they hit free agency all the time. Why would Hamels, Greinke or Cain have assumed this much risk for so long just to sign right on the cusp of free agency?

And if you trade Montero for Cain only to extend him, I doubt Cain signs for anything below what he thinks his market value will be following the season. You might get the slightest discount. Maybe. In which case, you have still traded Montero for one year of Cain at a modest discount. I wouldn't trade Montero for one season of Cole Hamels. This is an important stipulation.

Also, Cain's success has been built on a historical HR/FB rate built in a massive park in a mediocre division in the weaker league. I am far from thrilled to find out if he can keep up the magic act in New Yankee Stadium in the AL bEast.

[DBB23]

I have been pretty confient that Wilson will be a Yankee even before reports broke that some people in baseball sy he has a keen interest in going to NY.

The Yankees have roughly 17Mil comming off the books. Assuming they pick up all the options and no opt-outs. Plenty of money to add 1 or 2 big ticket guys if they choose.

I do not see Montero being moved unless they are overwhelmed by a #1 pitcher under 30 which I do not see happening. I also do not see them going in on Darvish much, just based on the bad experience they have had with japanese pitching.

They sign CJ kick the tiers on Harden, Buherle & Bedard.

If the Boss was alive this would be a much more interesting off season he loved to sign the big names and well all the big names Pujols, Fielder, Reyes do not seem to fit on this team.

Off the wall if the nationals miss out on Fielder and Pujols send Tex +Cash to Washington for Zimmerman sign Pujols DH Arod an infield of Pujols, Cano, Jeter, Zimmerman would be sweet.

[jon abbey]

Maybe the answer is to go after Wilson really hard, a bonus is it would (presumably) hurt Texas in the short-term. Would that be your move to get a #2 behind CC, Meff?

[Brianish]

reports broke that some people in baseball sy he has a keen interest in going to NY.

Let's take a deep breath here.

Heyman just tweeted on Wilson:

"Cj wilson is going to be very rich. Yankees, red sox, nats, others expected to try for him. (He's good but no ace imo)"

[Meff Nelton]

Maybe the answer is to go after Wilson really hard, a bonus is it would (presumably) hurt Texas in the short-term. Would that be your move to get a #2 behind CC, Meff?

I don't love Wilson, but I won't freak out if they can keep him at five years comfortably under $20 million per. And I don't see him getting 6/120 on the market.

[jon abbey]

Brianish, I did at least check to see if he was a Boras client before posting, and he's not.

[DBB23]

Let's take a deep breath here.

Heyman tweeted the CJ keen on going to Yanks fwiw.

•Some people think that C.J. Wilson has keen interest as a free agent in New York, tweets Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated. He adds that the Yankees are probably the early favorite to sign him.

http://www.mlbtrader...ein-angels.html

[jon abbey]

I've always been a fan of Harden, I'd love it if he was part of the mix next year at a reasonable price.

CC/Wilson/Nova/Burnett/Harden, Noesi/Warren/Phelps/Banuelos/Betances as the AAA rotation, with Hughes maybe starting the year as the 6th guy in the bullpen (?). That's nice depth, pushing Nova to #3 somehow is the key.

[DBB23]

I've always been a fan of Harden, I'd love it if he was part of the mix next year at a reasonable price.

CC/Wilson/Nova/Burnett/Harden, Noesi/Warren/Phelps/Banuelos/Betances as the AAA rotation, with Hughes maybe starting the year as the 6th guy in the bullpen (?). That's nice depth, pushing Nova to #3 somehow is the key.

That would be ideal but with the lack of FA pitching, reasonably priced guys with upside are hard to find. With the weak FA market I think we will have another late free agency flurry alot of teams are going to have to make improvements via trade in Dallas this Dec.

[Brianish]

Heyman tweeted the CJ keen on going to Yanks fwiw.

•Some people think that C.J. Wilson has keen interest as a free agent in New York, tweets Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated. He adds that the Yankees are probably the early favorite to sign him.

http://www.mlbtrader...ein-angels.html

Woosh.

[Brianish]

Brianish, I did at least check to see if he was a Boras client before posting, and he's not.

My point is more that Heyman's early scoops on big free agents are almost always that they are interested in/want to/probably will go to NY. Which isn't all that unreasonable, considering the cash involved, but it's also not necessarily telling.

[Kid T]

But I don't really buy it from the SF end, unless they're convinced he can play 1B based on no actual evidence.

And is his incremental offense vs. Belt such that it's worth trading their second best pitcher. Makes no sense to me at all.

[melonbag]

Why would the Yanks trade their most valuable young player to the Giants for Cain?

They could wait a year and get Cain on the free agent market, only giving up a draft pick.

[derekson]

I've always been a fan of Harden, I'd love it if he was part of the mix next year at a reasonable price.

CC/Wilson/Nova/Burnett/Harden, Noesi/Warren/Phelps/Banuelos/Betances as the AAA rotation, with Hughes maybe starting the year as the 6th guy in the bullpen (?). That's nice depth, pushing Nova to #3 somehow is the key.

Harden would be a spectacularly awful fit for the Yankees. The guy has given up 1.5, 1.8, and 1.9 HR/9 in his last 3 seasons, with the 1.9 coming while pitching half his games in the freaking Coliseum in Oakland. A right-handed pitcher with that kind of home run rate would get absolutely murdered pitching in NYS.

Edited by derekson, 10 October 2011 - 12:57 AM.

[Drew Peacock]

IIRC, Oswalt isn't a FA. The Phillies hold an (albeit expensive) option on him for 2012. Regardless, even if they didn't pick up the option, I could see him re-signing in Philly where he seems to enjoy the atmosphere.

edit: He has a $16 million option the Phillies are unlikely to exercise. The article does note that he might be likely to sign at a below market deal if he enjoys his Phillies experience.

It's going to be hard for Philly to be able to resign Hamels, Rollins, Madson, and Oswalt with all their big long term contracts unless they trade Blanton and his 8.5 million contract.

John Danks might also be available because this is his last year before free agency.

[jon abbey]

Cashman deal seems close to done, Sherman just tweeted:

<<Joelsherman1 Joel Sherman

Person in know put Cashman's re-signing with #Yankees at 100 pct, said matter of him going to Tampa to see Hal face-to-face to finalize>>

[jon abbey]

Girardi had an extensive exit interview today, and I thought this exchange was noteworthy:

<<On whether Hughes and Ivan Nova have rotation spots next year-“I would assume that they both would be part of our rotation.">>

http://yankees.lhblo...n-the-rotation/

No surprise on Nova, but that is strong language for Hughes, stronger than I would have expected from Girardi at this point. It's smart, though, since he's certainly one of the five best candidates under contract now (CC, Nova, Burnett, Hughes, Noesi and pray for a whole lot of rain and rapid prospect development) so keep him in that mindset until there are better alternatives at least, especially with CC's somewhat uncertain situation.

I think they'll offer Garcia arb (supposedly a type B FA), I think Cashman could live with a 1/7 or 1/8 deal for him, but he should be able to get multiple years elsewhere if he wants, I'd guess.

[jon abbey]

Hector Noesi is in the rotation in the Dominican Winter League, his first start is Monday. He threw 160.1 IP in 2010 and only 81 this year between NY and SWB, so this will hopefully get him another 40-50 to add on to that and minimize innings concerns if he ends up being a starter all next season.

http://riveraveblues...ter-ball-57759/

[abty]

Why would the Yanks trade their most valuable young player to the Giants for Cain?

They could wait a year and get Cain on the free agent market, only giving up a draft pick.

Logically, I would agree with this logic but I'd like to take a crack at this:

Jeter/Rivera don't want to wait until 2013 for Matt Cain and they have more than enough offense since every left handed hitter a team gives up on can hit 30 homers as a Yankee. They need pitching more than hitting and the D.H spot will be occupied for many years by aging players they cannot trade away.

[Meff Nelton]

Logically, I would agree with this logic but I'd like to take a crack at this:

Jeter/Rivera don't want to wait until 2013 for Matt Cain and they have more than enough offense since every left handed hitter a team gives up on can hit 30 homers as a Yankee. They need pitching more than hitting and the D.H spot will be occupied for many years by aging players they cannot trade away.

My head hurts.

This isn't a rec league. Jeter and Rivera can cry into their ringed fists as Cashman takes a shot at winning another title while not making a crippling, stupid trade. And those aging players need young players to come up and replace their production in order to remain competitive (last I checked, CIC Jeter isn't retiring next offseason.) Is that you, Omar?

BTW, they shit on Bernie when he stopped being a useful player. Contract or no, what makes you think they're going to abide sinkholes in the lineup every day when they stop being competent major leaguers? And the only lefty to ever hit 30 HR in the new ballpark had an MVP-caliber season long before the Yankees ever traded for him.

[NoMaRRaMoN]

Montero can fetch something better than a soon to be free agent #2 NL starter. If they trade him, it's for a guy like Felix.

[SemperFidelisSox]

Trading Montero to Seattle for Hernandez and then signing CJ Wilson makes a lot of sense, no? Sabathia, Hernandez, Wilson, Nova and Burnett in the rotation. Hughes in the bullpen where he belongs.

[Doctor G]

Trading Montero to Seattle for Hernandez and then signing CJ Wilson makes a lot of sense, no? Sabathia, Hernandez, Wilson, Nova and Burnett in the rotation. Hughes in the bullpen where he belongs.

Hughes is more likely to be in Seattle with Montero than in the Yankee bullpen. There is no way the M's trade Felix for Montero straight up based on September at bats.

[nycdoc999]

Hughes is more likely to be in Seattle with Montero than in the Yankee bullpen. There is no way the M's trade Felix for Montero straight up based on September at bats.

No way the Mariners trade Hernandez - unless the Yankees put somtething like Nova, Montero, Hughes, and Banuelos in the deal.

They would have to overpay HUGE to get him.

Edited by nycdoc999, 15 October 2011 - 11:56 PM.

[abty]

My head hurts.

This isn't a rec league. Jeter and Rivera can cry into their ringed fists as Cashman takes a shot at winning another title while not making a crippling, stupid trade. And those aging players need young players to come up and replace their production in order to remain competitive (last I checked, CIC Jeter isn't retiring next offseason.) Is that you, Omar?

BTW, they shit on Bernie when he stopped being a useful player. Contract or no, what makes you think they're going to abide sinkholes in the lineup every day when they stop being competent major leaguers? And the only lefty to ever hit 30 HR in the new ballpark had an MVP-caliber season long before the Yankees ever traded for him.

Wake me up when Curtis and Swisher have their typical years in Citi Field or Seattle. Listen, get over how your 'head hurts' or how I am a post bot. The team is built to win now and if you ever get a chance to talk to Brian Cashman or any of the front office team you can tell them that they would be willing to wait a year and re-tool instead of winning now. You get back to me with their response. Until then, take an advil and get over yourself. Of COURSE this team would trade Montero this year if it meant a better chance to win a world series. That's why they offered him in 2010 for Cliff Lee. It wont' matter if Montero is Babe Ruth, he can't catch, first base is locked and so is the D.H. since Arod will break down over time. Unless they can trade one of those two players, they would be idiotic to not try to use their best chip in years to help improve that ballclub.

Edited by abty, 16 October 2011 - 07:08 AM.

[terrynever]

How can anyone be so sure of anything?

Youth, wasted on the young. Who said that first?

I have no idea what Cashman will do this winter. But you get a sense from Girardi's comments that Montero is going to catch 80 games and share the position with Martin, who will disappear after 2012. Then you have Romine and Montero behind the plate.

Cashman isn't going anywhere and is more interested in sustaining the Yankees by promoting players from the farm system. He's here for the long term, as Bill Madden pointed out in the Daily News today:

http://www.nydailyne...s_loyal_to.html

[jon abbey]

The team is built to win now and if you ever get a chance to talk to Brian Cashman or any of the front office team you can tell them that they would be willing to wait a year and re-tool instead of winning now. You get back to me with their response. Until then, take an advil and get over yourself.

The main reason that this is a bad post is that they just spent a year doing exactly that. Yes, they were willing to move Montero for Halladay or Lee, but there are very few pitchers in the game on that level. Also, they now have a spot for Montero on the team, it will be easy to get him 500-600 ABs next year at DH and backup C.

[Meff Nelton]

Wake me up when Curtis and Swisher have their typical years in Citi Field or Seattle. Listen, get over how your 'head hurts' or how I am a post bot. The team is built to win now and if you ever get a chance to talk to Brian Cashman or any of the front office team you can tell them that they would be willing to wait a year and re-tool instead of winning now. You get back to me with their response. Until then, take an advil and get over yourself. Of COURSE this team would trade Montero this year if it meant a better chance to win a world series. That's why they offered him in 2010 for Cliff Lee. It wont' matter if Montero is Babe Ruth, he can't catch, first base is locked and so is the D.H. since Arod will break down over time. Unless they can trade one of those two players, they would be idiotic to not try to use their best chip in years to help improve that ballclub.

Nick Swisher hit 35 home runs in the Oakland Colosseum - an extreme pitchers park.
Curtis Granderson's road wOBA was exactly the same as his home wOBA this year, with 21 HR at home, and 20 on the road.
Cashman isn't going to trade Montero for one year's benefit if it will hurt the five that follow, which is what trading for a player on a one year deal does.
Alex Rodriguez may not be a Major League Baseball player in three years, at which point the Yankees might like having Montero around.
Matt Cain is possibly the worst acquisition the Yankees can make given their home park.

Knowing what you are talking about is not a requisite for you to talk. I find this unfortunate.

Edited by Meff Nelton, 16 October 2011 - 02:12 PM.

[jon abbey]

Joel Sherman has had some pretty odd columns lately, but today's is pretty accurate IMO:

http://www.nypost.co...ZwmtcJdEI5XOYhL