1440 replies to this topic

[Section15Box113]

Didn't someone quote Ben as saying that the other player was "significant?" This will actually be a nice test to see how his public statements stack up. (+ we can get a nice measure of what the hell "significant" actually meant within the context of these talks.)

My hope is that the Sox get to choose from a low-A guy with tons of potential (the Candelario scenario) and can then send a guy on the Sox 40 man who is out of options, but needs a change of scenery and a chance to play that the Sox can't really provide (like say Lars or maybe Bowden).

Don't recall that statement from Ben, but here's hoping.

Unfortunately, what I do recall is this Speier tweet from 2/21 at noon:
"Hearing that the ptbnl components of deal are not considered significant. #redsox #cubs"

https://twitter.com/#!/alexspeier

[Savin Hillbilly]

My hope is that the Sox get to choose from a low-A guy with tons of potential (the Candelario scenario) and can then send a guy on the Sox 40 man who is out of options, but needs a change of scenery and a chance to play that the Sox can't really provide (like say Lars or maybe Bowden).

Given the spring that Lars is having, I'm hoping the Sox can find a way to move him for some real value before he turns into a pumpkin. It would suck to have to sell him short just as he's finally putting it together, if that's what's happening.

Bowden sounds more like it.

Lars is not out of options, so this entire post is irrelevant spew. Ich bin ein dimwit.

Edited by Savin Hillbilly, 16 March 2012 - 11:07 AM.

[rembrat]

Trading Bowden now would be awful.

[OCD SS]

Don't recall that statement from Ben, but here's hoping.

Unfortunately, what I do recall is this Speier tweet from 2/21 at noon:
"Hearing that the ptbnl components of deal are not considered significant. #redsox #cubs"

https://twitter.com/#!/alexspeier

Not that one; IIRC a little later someone (maybe Gammo?) said that Ben said that the second player was significant.

Trading Bowden now would be awful.

If he doesn't make the team, he's out of options; throwing him in as a valuable piece in such a trade is better than losing him to waivers (if only by the thinest margin; obviously it would be nice for the team to keep him).

[rembrat]

I think he makes the team. He has that quirky delivery and now features a split finger which adds to his deception. He's always had good fastball command but seemed to lack a second pitch. If that split is for real then look out.

[Jed Zeppelin]

Trading Bowden in this particular deal wouldn't make any sense to me when there's a non-zero chance he's better than Carpenter.

[OCD SS]

I think he makes the team. He has that quirky delivery and now features a split finger which adds to his deception. He's always had good fastball command but seemed to lack a second pitch. If that split is for real then look out.

I've got a new baby in the house who "reported" with pitchers and catchers, so I actually haven't had a chance to follow much of what's going on in ST. I've always liked Bowden, so if he's got a second pitch I'd really like to see him make the team. (His delivery has always reminded me a bit of Foulke, which does bring back fond memories.) I really only through out Bowden's name as a player who's out of options and has non-zero value, so sending him to the Cubs would look good in the eyes of MLB & other excecs...

Trading Bowden in this particular deal wouldn't make any sense to me when there's a non-zero chance he's better than Carpenter.

So if Bowden (hypothetically) doesn't make the the Sox, you'd rather lose him trying to pass him through waivers, than as a matter of good faith send him along to people that drafted him in the first place and where he might have a chance to make the MLB club because they're not in competition? And then you'd send the Cubs some flotsam just out of spite? Carpenter can be sent to the minors (IIRC) so it's not a straight competition between him and Bowden. If Bowden will make the Sox, it's a non-issue, but if the Sox are going to lose him it behooves them to make his exit contribute to good will with the Cubs and MLB, even just so everyone is happy.

[Doctor G]

I think he makes the team. He has that quirky delivery and now features a split finger which adds to his deception. He's always had good fastball command but seemed to lack a second pitch. If that split is for real then look out.

I agree. After being a mop-up guy the last two years, Bowden might be in line for the role they envisioned for Wheeler last year.

Edited by Doctor G, 15 March 2012 - 08:31 AM.

[TomRicardo]

If Bowden will make the Sox, it's a non-issue, but if the Sox are going to lose him it behooves them to make his exit contribute to good will with the Cubs and MLB, even just so everyone is happy.

Why? The Cubs just screwed them. There is absolutely no way you can give anything of any value to the Cubs as the placeholder PTBNL. That is just insane.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I agree. After being a mop-up guy the last two years, Bowden might be in line for the role they envisioned for Wheeler last year.

Wheeler is really the guy I see Bowden profiling as, somewhere down the road -- good control and "why the eff can't we get a hit off this guy" skills against RHH, along with with general weakness to LHH and the propensity to give up fly balls and homers.

There's a decent chance that Bowden outpitches Albers this season against MLB hitters, if given the opportunity. To say nothing of the bullpen "depth" outside of Tazawa in AAA.

So I'd be loathe to give him up for basically nothing. Even if every time I see him, I see Miguel Montero's shadow behind him. The quality of PTBNL that I think will be heading to Chicago is of the Jeremy Kehrt or Brock Huntzinger level, with hopefully a clearly much better talent coming east.

[OCD SS]

Why? The Cubs just screwed them. There is absolutely no way you can give anything of any value to the Cubs as the placeholder PTBNL. That is just insane.

As I read the order of events, I think the Sox played it a bit passive-agressive: they let Theo interview knowing that he was eventually gone, and left the compensation vague enought that could ask for a lot, but not have it scuttle Theo actually leaving. The Cubs were not blameless, but I think there's enough to go around between the parties. Sending the Cubs a stiff just out of spite is dumb; it gains the Sox absolutely nothing except giving the mouth-breathers something to cheer about.

Or to put it another way: If the Sox are going to loose someone on waivers, he has zero value to the Sox. Therfore, in a scenario where Bowden doesn't make the team and will have to be placed on waivers, he would have zero value to the Sox.

And of course all this is dependant actually on the list of who the Cubs get back; under my hypothetical I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox are picking from some good players (again, like Candelario) that the Cubs negotiated for guys like Lars or Bowden to be on the list...

[TomRicardo]

. Sending the Cubs a stiff just out of spite is dumb; it gains the Sox absolutely nothing except giving the mouth-breathers something to cheer about.

It is not out of spite. It is out of agreement. They agreed on a useless place holder because it is need to complete the transaction. Bowden is not a useless placeholder.

Edit - I think the most mindblowing thing you suggest is giving up something of some value to mend fences.

Edited by TomRicardo, 15 March 2012 - 12:12 PM.

[maufman]

When I heard the Sox were going to pick at the end of Spring Training from a predefined list of "prospects," I immediately concluded that all the players on that list are organizational filler. The player going back to Chicago should also be filler. If, by then, it's clear that Bowden isn't going to make the 25-man roster, then he's a good pick to give up -- because then he'd be worth nothing to the Sox, and at least organizational filler is worth something. But if there's a non-zero chance he'll be on the Opening Day roster, the Sox should send someone else.

[lexrageorge]

"Good will" should play no part in the Sox decision. The decision should be made solely on picking the guy who has the least impact to the ballclub. If there's any chance Bowden makes the club, then they should pick someone else. Who really cares if Theo and/or the media get pissed off. Theo had no issue with ruffling the feathers of fellow, less intelligent, GM's when circumstances demanded it (Kevin Millar), and it didn't hurt him any. Cherington needs to take the same approach.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

The sox definately shouldn't give up anything of value and both Lars and Bowden have value. Lars would have netted you a starter at the deadline last season and Bowden is an arm that can probably give you league average low leverage innings. Both those guys could be used to fetch a player of need in a substantial trade, even if its only as the second prospect in a deal.

Both of those guys could also be used on the red sox if injury strikes or if they "find" themselves...

There is absolutely no reason to "throw in guys who are still in the top 30 or 40 prospecst in the system. You don't throw guys away who are by all means still considered prospects to satisfy a rule technicality.

If the sox can up the anti on what they get in return then maybe you think about dealing one of those guys, but it seems like the list of guys to choose from is set.

For a deal like this you throw in a 30 year old AA utility player .

[robssecondjob]

Jerry Crasnick ‏ @jcrasnick
#Cubs minor leaguer Aaron Kurcz has been told he's the player to be named later in Theo Epstein compensation package, source says

http://www.baseball-...id=kurcz-001aar

Copied from Lurker soxhop411 from today's Game Thread

[cwright]

Jerry Crasnick ‏ @jcrasnick
#Cubs minor leaguer Aaron Kurcz has been told he's the player to be named later in Theo Epstein compensation package, source says

I guess we're stockpiling Cubs bullpen arms. Kurcz was a 20-21 year old at high A last year, and throws a mid-90s fastball. Lots of strikeouts, lots of walks, and projects as a bullpen arm. (Listed as the Cubs #24 prospect here.)

[Freddy Linn]

Little more here, started last year at #17 on this list:

#17 - Aaron Kurcz, RHP
The Cubs' 11th round pick in the 2010 draft had a very good first full season in pro ball. Aaron Kurcz was 5-4 with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 32 games, 12 starts, with the D-Cubs. Kurcz walked 34 and struck out 91 in 82 1/3 innings. Kurcz appeared to perform better as a reliever. In 20 appearances he had a 2.72 ERA with a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio (49 strikeouts, 12 walks) while holding opposing hitters to a .169 average.

Kurcz throws his fastball consistently in the low to mid 90s and showed improvement with his slider.

Aaron Kurcz should begin the season at the Double-A level and if he keeps performing like he did last year, he could reach the big leagues before his 23rd birthday (August 8, 1990).

Seems to be mostly in the 20-25 range of prospects.

[The Boomer]

Kurcz is a Bowden sized pitcher with a great k-bb ratio before reaching AA while still age 21. Nice stats. I assume that the Cubs will get Bowden or another out of options prospect who could stick on their roster. If it's Chicago home boy Bowden or the equivalent, that's not bad.

[JakeRae]

Kurcz is a Bowden sized pitcher with a great k-bb ratio before reaching AA while still age 21. Nice stats. I assume that the Cubs will get Bowden or another out of options prospect who could stick on their roster. If it's Chicago home boy Bowden or the equivalent, that's not bad.

Bowden for Carpenter and Kurcz wouldn't be that far off a fair trade in and of itself. The Red Sox should be sending something back that has zero MLB value. They already sent Theo to Chicago. This player is a formality. Bowden has a real shot of sticking in the Sox bullpen this year and, if not, should be able to bring back a lottery ticket prospect in a trade to another team. He should definitely not be the player going to Chicago.

[BucketOBalls]

Bowden for Carpenter and Kurcz wouldn't be that far off a fair trade in and of itself. The Red Sox should be sending something back that has zero MLB value. They already sent Theo to Chicago. This player is a formality. Bowden has a real shot of sticking in the Sox bullpen this year and, if not, should be able to bring back a lottery ticket prospect in a trade to another team. He should definitely not be the player going to Chicago.

In that case, wouldn't it make sense to just send Carpenter back?

[The Boomer]

When I heard the Sox were going to pick at the end of Spring Training from a predefined list of "prospects," I immediately concluded that all the players on that list are organizational filler. The player going back to Chicago should also be filler. If, by then, it's clear that Bowden isn't going to make the 25-man roster, then he's a good pick to give up -- because then he'd be worth nothing to the Sox, and at least organizational filler is worth something. But if there's a non-zero chance he'll be on the Opening Day roster, the Sox should send someone else.

Kurcz is definitely more than organizational filler. Hard throwing but wild Carpenter is a decent lottery ticket who, like many wild slingers before him, could be a late bloomer. If the Sox took Kurcz from a pre-arranged list of second tier prospects with the Cubs, then it's likely that whoever from among this out of options list would otherwise be cut from the ML roster this month is on the Cubs list (as determined by the Red Sox when finalizing their 25 men):

The list of Red Sox who fall under the option-less umbrella: Pitchers Michael Bowden, Felix Doubront, Andrew Miller, Franklin Morales and Matt Albers, along with outfielder Darnell McDonald.

McDonald looks like a man on a mission who wants to stay. Doubront, Miller and Morales are all too valuable as lefties to lose. Miller might temporarily get stached on the DL. Albers and Bowden seem to be fighting over the job that Wheeler was supposed to do last season. I think the PTBNL for the Cubs will be whoever between those two the Sox will choose. Who is better? Albers looks like he worked out all winter at the Mickey Lolich gym. Somehow, I don't see Valentine preferring an out of shape athlete who can't lose weight. Unless Bowden seriously falters in his next few outings, I could see Albers headed to Chicago and Bowden making the team.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

I'm not sure why you guys keep naming people who have a chance one way or another to make the sox major league club. It won't be a guy like that and the fact that a player is out of options doesn't make a lick of difference. If they're out of options and they don't make the team you simply stash them on the DL or put them through waivers. If a team claims the player then you work out a trade for some single A wild card.

You don't throw a guy with even fringe major league value into a trade that is being completed to satisfy a rule formality.

The kind of guys that you would throw in would be guys like Thomas, Ciriaco, Inman, Kroeger, Repko etc. etc. etc.

guys who have virtually no shot at making the club who are extra pieces to fill out the ST roster. These guys would be bench types for Pawtucket, AAAA guys who have been around and are hoping for lightening to strike and maybe injury so they can take advantage of a openings. Guys like Nava etc.

You don't throw in guys who are actually useful. If you're going to trade someone like Albers or Bowden because of lack of options you do it at the end of ST when other teams are searching for viable injury replacements.

Edited by Carl Everetts Therapist, 16 March 2012 - 06:17 AM.

[OttoC]

I thought I read that Boston was supposed to have the edge in the minor-league portion of the compensation package. How does giving Bowden to the Cubs for a Class-A minor leaguer do that? Someone like Stolmy Pimentel seems like a better fit in that regard.

While Bowden only has 3.2 IP in "A" games this spring, that ranks him 10th among Red Sox pitchers and he has allowed only two base runners (walk, hit) while striking out five. He has a chance at making Boston's bullpen but if he doesn't make it then the club stands a good shot of getting something in return for him.

Unfortunately, the timing is about one-half year off on all this. If Middlebrooks looks capable of handling third at the MLB-level and/or Iglesias capable of putting up a .700 OPS, then they could try packaging Youkilis with Bowden and Anderson for pitching.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

I thought I read that Boston was supposed to have the edge in the minor-league portion of the compensation package. How does giving Bowden to the Cubs for a Class-A minor leaguer do that? Someone like Stolmy Pimentel seems like a better fit in that regard.

So we're gonna give the Cubs our 17th ranked prospect (according to soxprospects) as a guy who is being thrown in as a PTBNL to satisfy a Technicality? Stolmy is a better prospect then the guy we're getting back, possibly a much better prospect (although coming off a tough year)

You guys are making no sense....

The guy being added shouldn't be a top 50 prospect in our Org. and shouldn't be a guy younger than 28years old...

Edited by Carl Everetts Therapist, 16 March 2012 - 09:18 AM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

So we're gonna give the Cubs our 17th ranked prospect (according to soxprospects) as a guy who is being thrown in as a PTBNL to satisfy a Technicality? Stolmy is a better prospect then the guy we're getting back, possibly a much better prospect (although coming off a tough year)

You guys are making no sense....

The guy being added shouldn't be a top 50 prospect in our Org. and shouldn't be a guy younger than 28years old...

Well, I think it's okay if the prospect could be as young as 23, but I fully agree with the gist of this.

After some reflection, I think Cherington has used the "Theo Compensation" trade -- and the offseason in general -- to refill some of the organization's dearth of relief pitching in the minors. Because really, as of October 2012, the team only had two good arms (Tazawa and Fields) down in the minors ready to pitch in MLB within the next two years, and who also profiled as working out of the AA or AAA bullpen.

So losing a pitcher doesn't make much sense. Seriously, the Sox should send a position player who's just taking up space. Someone like Ryan Dent, which would clear room for all three of Meneses, Bogaerts, and Vinicio to continue their development as everyday shortstops.

[OttoC]

Does being ranked 17th in a particular system really mean a whole lot? Besides, Pimentel's ERA has gone 2.90, 3.14, 3.82, 4.06, 6.59 and his K/9 has gone from 8.7, 8.7, 7.9, 7.1, 5.7. Admittedly, his numbers for last season were heavily weighted by his debacle at Double-A (9.12 ERA, 5.4 K/9) but his second trip (4.53, 6.1) through A+ wasn't as good as his first time through (4.06, 7.1)...and that was after pitching AA.

[OCD SS]

I'm not sure why you guys keep naming people who have a chance one way or another to make the sox major league club. It won't be a guy like that and the fact that a player is out of options doesn't make a lick of difference.

I think you are misunderstanding the situation (at least as it has been described in the press): The Sox don't get to send anyone they want to the Cubs, they get to choose who to send from a predetermined list of players that was negotiated with the Cubs.

Those of us who are discussing players who are out of options are assuming that the compensation negotiations lead to the Cubs getting something of value in the larger exchange (beyond Theo - if it was only Theo then the negotiations probably wouldn't have taken so long). It is a hypothecial scenario, but it seems at least as logical as the Sox simply dictating terms to the Cubs (which didn't really seem to be the case over the entire off-season).

As for a player being out of options not making a lick of difference, I think you're mistaken as it regards prospects like Lars and Bowden. They might pass through waivers, but the fact that the Sox put them on the 40-man indicates that they though another team might give them a spot on their MLB rosters. Unless they're actually injured they have no reason to go on the phantom DL just to help the Red Sox. If they get put on waivers they're likely to stick on a MLB roster (with concurent paycheck and benefits) with another team. These guys are going to want to get their MLB careers started rather than going to Pawtucket just to help Ben manage the roster a bit.

[EvilEmpire]

The chances of Epstein getting a player of no value seems small. He knows the Sox system pretty well.

[The Allented Mr Ripley]

Kurcz is a Bowden sized pitcher with a great k-bb ratio before reaching AA while still age 21. Nice stats. I assume that the Cubs will get Bowden or another out of options prospect who could stick on their roster. If it's Chicago home boy Bowden or the equivalent, that's not bad.

Bowden: 6'-3", 215
Kurcz: 6'-0", 175

Edited by The Allented Mr Ripley, 16 March 2012 - 10:54 AM.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

I think you are misunderstanding the situation (at least as it has been described in the press): The Sox don't get to send anyone they want to the Cubs, they get to choose who to send from a predetermined list of players that was negotiated with the Cubs.

Nope I'm not Misunderstanding the situation at all, I think you and the others who are talking about adding legitimate prospects are the ones who are severely missunderstanding the sitaution.

The sox got hosed by getting Carpenter and not more, the Cubs are throwing in Kurcz (a decent but not great prospect) to ease the sox a bit.... The sox don't then go and give the cubs a real prospect. Thats just plain stupid. The only reason the sox need to send anyone at all is to satisfy the rule technicality.

The Cubs already got there significant piece...

There is no way the sox give up anyone of value no matter the Option status.

You don't throw in guys who were former top draft choices just because they are out of options.... Think about it

If they don't clear waivers you work out a deal with the claiming team both Lars and Bowden are under contract they can't simply walk away. It doesn't matter if they want to get their careers started or not, it's not up to them. Teams always use the DL injured or not, thats why it's called a phantom injury.

Guys this is not that complicated.

Edited by Carl Everetts Therapist, 16 March 2012 - 11:04 AM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

The Sox are giving up someone of lesser value than Kurcz, not someone with no value.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

The Sox are giving up someone of lesser value than Kurcz, not someone with no value.

exactly... like a AAAA type

Both Lars and Bowden have more value than Kurcz

Go look at the lists of guys rated as Organizational filler/Depth and you will find your PTBNL

Edited by Carl Everetts Therapist, 16 March 2012 - 11:08 AM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I don't think Lars has any value to the Sox, really. He's a 1B with little power. Red Sox couldn't even get an injured Rich Harden for him last year. He's not a top 20 prospect on the Sox,

That being said, he doesn't seem like a fit with the Cubs either. I'd expect someone more like Balcolm-Miller, Stroup, Couch, or Fields.

[OCD SS]

The sox got hosed by getting Carpenter and not more, the Cubs are throwing in Kurcz (a decent but not great prospect) to ease the sox a bit.... The sox don't then go and give the cubs a real prospect. Thats just plain stupid. The only reason the sox need to send anyone at all is to satisfy the rule technicality.Guys this is not that complicated.

So you were in the room for the negotiations and can tell us how they went down? Why didn't you share that info before?

exactly... like a AAAA type

Both Lars and Bowden have more value than Kurcz

Not if the Sox are going to lose them on waivers. Carpenter and Kurcz have options, which makes them more valuable to the Sox.

[Pxer]

I'm with CET. We're not giving a prospect back nor a possible ML contributor that's just nonsensical. If we do give something more than org filler we have a right to be outraged. It'snot even going to be a guy with a pedigree who had some real upside when drafted.

[lexrageorge]

Anderson has options, so there's no chance the Sox will lose him on waivers, or send him to the Cubs.

I would agree with OCD that there was likely some rough parameters agreed with regards to the level of prospect that would be included to satisify the compensation/trade issue. I just don't believe it would be as high as a prospect as a Michael Bowden.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

Not if the Sox are going to lose them on waivers. Carpenter and Kurcz have options, which makes them more valuable to the Sox.

But the sox wouldn't even loose Lars or Bowden on waivers (Lars isn't even out of options). Even if a team were to claim them the team could pull them back or use the ten day waiver period to work out a trade....

It's not like these guys are use them or loose them, there are tons of options.

you didn't have to be in on the negotiations to understand any of this

Edited by Carl Everetts Therapist, 16 March 2012 - 12:50 PM.

[ThePieholeOfDavidWells]

I'm with CET. We're not giving a prospect back nor a possible ML contributor that's just nonsensical. If we do give something more than org filler we have a right to be outraged. It'snot even going to be a guy with a pedigree who had some real upside when drafted.

I don't understand this logic, nor do I understand the moaning, bitching and whining that has gone on for the last few months about Theo's departure. The Red Sox GM who had one year remaining on his contract went and got another job. I know that some fanboys around here want Garza, but that doesn't make sense. An MLB ready bullpen arm and a live-armed prospect in AA sounds like fair compensation to me. It's not like the Cubs stole Epstein from the Red Sox in the dead of night and burned the only copy of his next 10-year contract. it's not like he took the whole organization with him. He had one year left on his contract, trained his replacement, and left what I think most people would agree is a reasonably strong system in place. He could have waited a year and then the Sox would have had nothing at all. What's to complain about?

And as a minor side point, "you" are not included in "we." That is, "you" are not giving away any players. As OCD SS's post makes clear, no one from this discussion was involved in negotiations, and it's a little irritating how "fans" can think they have a "right" to be outraged. This is not your government at work, folks. This is a private baseball team operating according to its own interests.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

Stop being a Douche, everyone on these boards refers to the RED SOX as "we" so drop the sanctimonious bullshit.

Your post misses the whole point of the discussion, it isn't even in the same ballpark

The discussion is that you don't give up a Lars Anderson type (as a PTBNL to complete a formality) when he's ranked higher than the guy you got for Epstein in the first place. The discussion had nothing to do with arguing about what Theo was worth.

Edited by Carl Everetts Therapist, 16 March 2012 - 01:21 PM.

[ThePieholeOfDavidWells]

But the sox wouldn't even loose Lars or Bowden on waivers (Lars isn't even out of options). Even if a team were to claim them the team could pull them back or use the ten day waiver period to work out a trade....

It's not like these guys are use them or loose them, there are tons of options.

you didn't have to be in on the negotiations to understand any of this

There are not "tons of options." There are actually a very few contractually negotiated scenarios that teams have with players like Bowden. He's served his time in the minors, and now he has to clear waivers to be sent down. You speak about Bowden on waivers as if you have some inside information (again). The Sox could try to trade Bowden if another team claimed him, but who's to say that anyone will trade anything of value for him? MLB doesn't always work the way you want it to work or to think it will work. It is beginning to appear that many teams are increasingly coming to recognize the real value of their prospects (perhaps overvaluing them) and do not want to wheel-and-deal.

From the media reports we have, the Sox and Cubs agreed on a list of players coming back from the Sox that the Cubs get to choose from. We'll find out the name of the player they've selected shortly, but getting into a pissing contest is pointless. It is not very obvious that Bowden is not on the list. It is very obvious that we have no idea who's on the list, why they were selected, and when they're going. Let's just agree to call this one of the environmental conditions of our ecology of ignorance.

[ThePieholeOfDavidWells]

Stop being a Douche, everyone on these boards refers to the RED SOX as "we" so drop the sanctimonious bullshit.

Your post misses the whole point of the discussion, it isn't even in the same ballpark

The discussion is that you don't give up a Lars Anderson type (as a PTBNL to complete a formality) when he's ranked higher than the guy you got for Epstein in the first place. The discussion had nothing to do with arguing about what Theo was worth.

I don't understand what you're getting so worked up about here. This "complete formality" thing was, if I'm not mistaken, first mentioned by someone on this board. I don't remember seeing that in any reports in the media. Bud Selig didn't hold a press conference and say, "The Red Sox will send a player to the Cubs as a complete formality." So I wouldn't stake your credibility to the claim that it won't be Bowden or Lars.

As to being on point, you claimed above, on this same page that the Sox "got hosed" by getting Carpenter. And you make it sound as if Kurcz was "thrown in" as some afterthought. Part of this discussion, a big part actually, is what's fair value for Epstein. You claim that the PTBNL can't be someone of actual value because of what the Sox got from the Cubs. In any case, you're turning it into a pointless discussion about the value of value, or the meaning of value.

Edited for clarity.

Edited by ThePieholeOfDavidWells, 16 March 2012 - 01:51 PM.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

PTBNL's are a formality, since Sox can't get Carpenter for nothing.

Per Tomasse

earing that the ptbnl components of deal are not considered significant. #redsox #cubs

Per Spiere


You need to go back and re-read whats written in the last two pages. I can't comment on anything you say until you're more informed

Edited by Carl Everetts Therapist, 16 March 2012 - 02:05 PM.

[ThePieholeOfDavidWells]

There you go. So it's probably not likely to be anyone significant. Significant as a category most likely includes Lars, and may include Bowden.

[trekfan55]

The way I see it, Bowden is clearly in the running for a bullpen spot this Spring. He has pitched really well. If at some moment management decides that he's not gonna make it then they'll try to get some value out of him in the trade market, or expose him to waivers. I don't think they'll simply send him to the Cubs.

As for Anderson, not only does he have options, it's mistaken to think they could not get an injured Harden for him. They actually did get Harden, but the Sox balked when they saw the physical.

Edited by trekfan55, 16 March 2012 - 02:09 PM.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

agreed

[Sprowl]

The way I see it, Bowden is clearly in the running for a bullpen spot this Spring. He has pitched really well. If at some moment management decides that he's not gonna make it then they'll try to get some value out of him in the trade market, or expose him to waivers. I don't think they'll simply send him to the Cubs.

As for Anderson, not only does he have options, it's mistaken to think they could not get an injured Harden for him. They actually did get Harden, but the Sox balked when they saw the physical.

Agreed on both counts. A half-season rental of a healthy Harden was Anderson's value last summer.

Bowden has looked good so far, so his value, like Anderson's, is non-trivial. He has shown himself to be durable, throws 93 on a regular basis, throws strikes, and may have learned the splitter as a new secondary pitch (which he badly needed). He might well be traded, but as more than a Theo PTBNL throw-in.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

As for Anderson, not only does he have options, it's mistaken to think they could not get an injured Harden for him. They actually did get Harden, but the Sox balked when they saw the physical.

If I remember correctly, the Harden deal was for Anderson and a PTBNL. When the Sox didn't like what they saw in Harden's medicals, they wanted to pull the PTBNL back and do it just for Anderson (or with a change in terms for the PTBNL). Oakland wouldn't do it so the deal fell apart. So, it isn't incorrect to say that Anderson couldn't bring back Harden.

[OCD SS]

Per Tomasse...
Per Spiere...

Actually I don't think you can post a couple of tweets as if they definitevely back your position. In neither case is there any information actual information besides the rules of an MLB trade, or indication that said reporter knows which players are under discussion. In neither case did they follow up with an article detailing anything about these players, or the negotiations in question. If their source was simply looking at a list of guys and they weren't the big names that made the papers (which would've narrowed the lists down to Garza, Castro, and maybe Jackson), that would be enough to make anyone else in the deal an insignificant formality. I know we expect more from Speir, but I haven't see anything that indicates that he did any more than pass on the opinion of his (unnamed) source.

I am pretty sure I remember seeing a tweet, I think by Gammo, that the ptbnl coming back to the Sox was considered more than just a stiff. I haven't been able to find that tweet, and now that we know that Kurcz is that guy we can debate if that is true or not. He looks like the sort of lottery ticket I was especting, if not as shiny a bauble as Candelario. We know that the player going for Carpenter was the quintessential "stiff", but it doesn't follow that the ptbnl in this situation will fall under the same umbrella.

Furthermore a lot of this argument depends on how you define the adjectives in question, and those definitions are constantly shifting with each iteration and author. The bottom line is that none of us have any idea of who's on the list that the Sox can choose to send, and you have absolutely nothing to back up your assertion that it will be a non-roster scrub other than (afaict) some sense of how you think things should turn out. The reason I'm suggesting a Lars/ Bowden type is that I have a hard time seeing Theo and Jed get nothing more than a fungible guy they could pick up as a NRI just because they've switched to the NL.

[Dick Pole Upside]

What about a guy like Nava? He's old(er), behind several AAAA types, was a Theo lottery ticket to begin with, and has receded into the organizational background. I think he'd fit the profile of a low-value return PTBNL.