1440 replies to this topic

[xjack]

Before Billy Beane backed out of his deal with the Red Sox in 2002, the Sox had agreed to send Kevin Youkilis to Oakland as compensation for letting Beane out of his contract. At the time, Youkilis was Boston's Number 3 prospect (as ranked by Baseball America), having just made it to double-A.

Theo has a year left on his contract, and if he wants to go to Chicago, I see no reason why the Sox shouldn't demand a similar level of compensation from the Cubs. With that in mind, here's an updated top-10 prospects list for Chicago: http://mlb.mlb.com/m...ex.jsp?c_id=chc

The cupboard seems pretty bare up there (all the more reason to bring in a new GM). The Cubs' best prospect -- Brett Jackson -- doesn't strike me as much of an upgrade over Reddick or Kalish... I'd probably go with Rafael Dolis. Big arm and he's had a better than 2-to-1 GB/FB ratio for two consecutive years. He might make it to the big leagues next year if the Sox were willing to put him in the bullpen.

[Lose Remerswaal]

I don't want anything back from the Cubs if Theo goes there.

I just want them to take John Lackey with Theo, and pay his salary.

Who knows, in the NL he might actually revert to being an above average pitcher.

[xjack]

I just want them to take John Lackey with Theo, and pay his salary.

I love it. In fact, I think that should be negotiated into the next collective bargaining agreement: Any GM who wants out of his contract must convince his new employer to take his worst free agent signing with him.

Edited by xjack, 03 October 2011 - 12:15 PM.

[SoxScout]

I don't want a shitty prospect back for the sake of getting a prospect in return. Be like, ok, you can have our GM, one of the best in the game, that your fan base will wet themselves over. We'll take Sean Marshall. Thanks.

[Pozo the Clown]

I don't want anything back from the Cubs if Theo goes there.

I just want them to take John Lackey with Theo, and pay his salary.

Who knows, in the NL he might actually revert to being an above average pitcher.

Theo and (an unsubsidized) Lackey to the Cubs for Matt Garza.

[mabrowndog]

Indirectly, Buster Olney wrote about this yesterday and Dave Cameron at Fangraphs addressed it today. Both approach it from the acquiring team's overall cost outlay including Theo's pay, not just what they would be giving up to the Red Sox to let him out of his contract. So while neither writer specifically discuss the sort of player/cash package the Sox might be looking at, obviously the two factors are joined at the hip.

Olney's piece focuses on the the massive under-valuation of elite front office talent relative to the results they can generate. In his view a guy like Theo it's bound to be a more cost-effective long-term investment than giving a multi-year deal to a top ballplayer, and implies the Cubs should basically go all-out to get him.

Cameron takes a somewhat different tack, suggesting there's a significant overlap in the Venn diagram of potential front office executive capabilities (from top GM's Theo down to capable assistants), while the true value an Epstein might bring would be respect and a "been there, done that" greater chance of effectiveness.

[JakeRae]

Theo and Iglesias for Castro.

Alternatively, the Theo and Lackey for Garza deal has some appeal.

I'd rather just keep Theo.

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Theo, Crawford and Lackey to the Brewers for Ryan Braun and Randy Wolf. The Brewers don't need Theo so they'll just let him walk. The Sox can throw in Theo's bus fare from Milwaukee to Chicago. They can even throw in some extra cash so Theo can afford a six pack of Shotz Beer for the ride.

[SoxScout]

Theo and Iglesias for Castro.

Alternatively, the Theo and Lackey for Garza deal has some appeal.

I'd rather just keep Theo.

Cafardo!: If Epstein leaves, price must be high

■ In addition to Epstein, you trade, as some bloggers have suggested, John Lackey and the remainder of his contract to the Cubs. That would give the Cubs a Carlos Zambrano-Lackey tandem. Good luck, Theo.

■ Ask for shortstop Starlin Castro. Why not? Give them Jose Iglesias back if you must, but giving up Castro would hurt, and you have to make the Cubs hurt for wanting to take your GM.

■ Ask for pitcher Matt Garza. He’s the Cubs’ best righthander who is American League East battle-tested. Unreasonable? Why be reasonable?

He also says Cherington would be the likely successor and "look for Lucchino to recapture some of the power he had to oversee baseball operations." Ugh. When is a media member going to mention Lucchino's contract expires this winter and ask questions about that?

Edited by SoxScout, 04 October 2011 - 02:44 AM.

[BosRedSox5]

I've heard a lot of talk about Cherington taking over if Theo leaves (big IF) but is that really the best move?

I'm not saying Cherington isn't ready, because he is, but I just hate the idea of hiring a long time assistant to take over. This almost always goes badly.

[someoneanywhere]

If the Cubbies really want Theo that badly, and Theo really wants to be a Cubbie that badly, the smart play would be for them to do a Mike Port: go with some interim arrangement for a year (thus also letting Theo fix the mess here) and wait it out. For maybe 20-25 franchises in MLB, that would be a dangerous game. But you know Cubs fans are going to continue to come to Wrigley (why would that stop? What's another year of futility -- especially when everyone can see this this arrangement, and see the cavalry coming?

Yes, I realize the Port set-up involved other circumstances. But that would be my model.

Edited by someoneanywhere, 04 October 2011 - 07:04 AM.

[jacklamabe65]

I actually have no problem with a Theo, Lackey, and Iglesias deal for Castro and Garza, but I have doubts that the Cubs would.

No thanks on LL and ol' Ben, however.

Edited by jacklamabe65, 04 October 2011 - 07:20 AM.

[OttoC]

Cafardo!:..and "look for Lucchino to recapture some of the power he had to oversee baseball operations." Ugh. When is a media member going to mention Lucchino's contract expires this winter and ask questions about that?

SAy Lucchino does recapture some of that power, and the Res Sox do quite well in 2012, isn't Lucchino going to say, "Look at me. I helped resurrect the franchise. Give me more, give me more."

[OCD SS]

I've heard a lot of talk about Cherington taking over if Theo leaves (big IF) but is that really the best move?

I'm not saying Cherington isn't ready, because he is, but I just hate the idea of hiring a long time assistant to take over. This almost always goes badly.

Wasn't Theo an assistant GM?

[Paul M]

Every time I see Theo on the dais with Lucchino I still get the father-son vibe and Theo having to prove himself. LL gave Theo his shot and delivered and clearly John Henry values both of them greatly. If Theo has to cede any power to Lucchino, I doubt he stays much longer. I am sure Larry is a very good executive but he just makes me uncomfortable most of the time. I am sure we observe stuff like this at work where there is a manager that seemingly is not very well liked but his/her manager will keep them and defend them over all others. I just have to think Henry would opt for Larry and Ben over Theo as CEO.

[erfus]

SAy Lucchino does recapture some of that power, and the Res Sox do quite well in 2012, isn't Lucchino going to say, "Look at me. I helped resurrect the franchise. Give me more, give me more."

Lucchino is also 66 years old. A scenario involving giving him more power isn't really a wise long-term strategy.

I thought it was funny Cafardo speculated about Epstein / Iglesias for Starlin Castro, since I posted it mostly in jest in the random trade ideas thread. I think that's about as far fetched as it gets from the Cubs side of things, but generally I think he actually has a good point. Theo is an asset to the organization and under contract. Even if certain elements of management want to move on, that doesn't mean he has no value to the Sox or others. They should maximize the return on the 'investment.'

[mikeot]

I think Pete Abe has been lurking around SOSH; he just tweeted this: "RedSox should make the #Cubs take Lackey if they also want Epstein."

[Lose Remerswaal]

I think Pete Abe has been lurking around SOSH; he just tweeted this: "RedSox should make the #Cubs take Lackey if they also want Epstein."

Brilliant!

[CaptainLaddie]

That's alsoa pretty obvious joke to make. Just saying.

[ElcaballitoMVP]

I really don't see any reason why the Cubs would give up a Castro or take Lackey if they wanted Theo. I understand the need to get some compensation back, but I think those two scenarios (and anything involving Garza) are unrealistic. There are a number of up and coming GM's, some of which are being discussed here to replace Theo, that could bring in a similar philosophy and not cost anything. I would be happy with a minor league SP with some upside. I just don't see any way we get our hands on Castro or Garza or be able to dump Lackey and his contract.

[SoxScout]

Phil Rogers, Chicago Tribune: http://www.chicagotr...,2125690.column

•The need to part with free-agent bust John Lackey? He was 12-12 with a 6.41 ERA and destroyed his image by playing Loretta Lynn hardball — D-I-V-O-R-C-E — while his wife was healing from breast cancer. He has three years and $45.75 million left on his contract.

Lackey would be your classic Cubs misfit but they do need pitching and a move to the NL could help him. The Cubs could ask the Red Sox to take Carlos Zambrano in the deal, which cuts the risk in the deal from three years to two, or try to steer the conversation to Daisuke Matsuzaka. He has only one year left on his contract, but he has a full no-trade clause.

•The need a legitimate catcher: Jarrod Saltalamacchia played a starring role in the 7-20 September collapse, and Jason Varitek is in the third catcher stage of his career. The Red Sox love Ryan Lavarnway but don't know if he can catch every day. Geo Soto would be a big addition or the Cubs could send along one of two catching prospects, Welington Castillo or Steve Clevenger, depending on Boston's evaluation of them.

•The need for a right fielder: Marlon Byrd is expendable for the rebuilding Cubs. He was playing right when he saved the 2010 All-Star Game for the NL. The Red Sox even might ask for Brett Jackson, but would they really expect the Cubs to give up their top prospect?

•The need for bullpen help: Jonathan Papelbon seems likely to be re-signed, but setup man Daniel Bard could be headed for the rotation. Carlos Marmol would be a high-value addition, and because he's signed through 2013 he can't complain too loudly if he sets up Papelbon. Lefty Sean Marshall and right-hander Jeff Samardzija offer less dramatic options.

•The need for pitching prospects: This is the No. 1 weakness of the Cubs' system, so there isn't much to pick from. That doesn't mean the Red Sox won't ask for Andrew Cashner, Trey McNutt or a sleeper arm their scouts have identified.

[Super Nomario]

The need to part with free-agent bust John Lackey? He was 12-12 with a 6.41 ERA and destroyed his image by playing Loretta Lynn hardball — D-I-V-O-R-C-E — while his wife was healing from breast cancer. He has three years and $45.75 million left on his contract.

Doesn't he mean "Tammy Wynette hardball?"

Edited by Super Nomario, 05 October 2011 - 01:03 AM.

[Jed Zeppelin]

Phil Rogers, Chicago Tribune: http://www.chicagotr...,2125690.column

This was interesting to read from the other side's perspective. The narrative from the media on both sides thus far is that Theo wouldn't be sent to Chicago for any small return, which I suppose is a good thing, even if some of the suggestions seem a little off.

[xjack]

It's odd that the Chicago media doesn't perceive Marshall as a big chip.

[BosRedSox5]

Wouldn't it be helpful to look at other compensation packages in order to determine what this one may be? We know the Sox were going to give up Youk for Billy Beane... but the only other one I can think of is when the Rays got Lou Pinella. For that they gave Randy Winn, an all-star center fielder. What other executive/managerial compensation packages can anyone else remember?

[smastroyin]

If the Red Sox trade Theo Epstein for fucking Marlon Byrd then we'll know our trouble is just beginning.

Soto is interesting but his "odd year" self is not better than Salty. I realize if Theo goes guys like Salty will probably be out quickly as well because they are perceived as Theo-guys or something (see, every non-guaranteed player of Duquette/Port origin in 2002-3). But I would chance a Salty/Lavarnway platoon over Soto.

I like Marshall a lot. Better chip than Marmol who was terrible this year other than being the anointed closer. I believe both are up for FA next year though, something to keep in mind.

[JimD]

I realize if Theo goes guys like Salty will probably be out quickly as well because they are perceived as Theo-guys or something (see, every non-guaranteed player of Duquette/Port origin in 2002-3).

I don't see that happening if Cherington steps up to the GM's position.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I like Marshall a lot. Better chip than Marmol who was terrible this year other than being the anointed closer. I believe both are up for FA next year though, something to keep in mind.

Adding Marshall to the current bullpen would make it pretty dominating, and he might even be a candidate to replace Papelbon if they decide to go that route. He's certainly no LOOGY. His OPS allowed to RHH this year was .599 (.503 to LHH).

I wouldn't discount Soto, though. He has good plate discipline (career 11.8% walk rate) and crushes LHP (career .932 OPS). That's a profile that would work pretty well for the 2012 Red Sox, I think. Granted, it might also turn out to be a pretty good description of Lavarnway, but unlike Lavarnway, Soto has established that he can handle the position defensively.

I'd be thrilled to get either of those guys.

[Kid T]

Wouldn't it be helpful to look at other compensation packages in order to determine what this one may be? We know the Sox were going to give up Youk for Billy Beane...

No, in fact we don't know this.

In point of fact, noted one person familiar with the talks, while the A’s and Sox discussed different trade possibilities, with Youkilis being in the conversation, there never was a final deal in place by the time that Beane’s change of heart scuttled the deal.

link

also, mentioned by Gammons on WEEI

[maufman]

Soto is interesting but his "odd year" self is not better than Salty. I realize if Theo goes guys like Salty will probably be out quickly as well because they are perceived as Theo-guys or something (see, every non-guaranteed player of Duquette/Port origin in 2002-3). But I would chance a Salty/Lavarnway platoon over Soto.

I like Marshall a lot. Better chip than Marmol who was terrible this year other than being the anointed closer. I believe both are up for FA next year though, something to keep in mind.

Rogers is overstating how much the FO will weight the September collapse. Unless there's something we don't know about Salty (e.g., being part of the clubhouse problems), he'll be the starting catcher in 2012.

Also, keep in mind Theo will have de facto approval of any deal. (Once he's decided to go to Chicago and compensation talks have begun in earnest, the FO won't want him back.) I like Marshall too, but Theo won't let a good, cost-controlled player (let alone a blue-chip prospect) go the other way.

My gut says the most likely option is Lackey to Chicago, with the Sox kicking in some cash -- but a lot less than the $35mm or so they'd have to pay anyone else to consider taking him off their hands. Theo will be much more willing to spend his new boss's money than to trade away someone who could be a piece of his future success, and at least two of the three years left on Lackey's deal will be in the rear-view mirror by the time the Cubs are ready to contend.

[Harry Hooper]

Wouldn't it be helpful to look at other compensation packages in order to determine what this one may be? We know the Sox were going to give up Youk for Billy Beane... but the only other one I can think of is when the Rays got Lou Pinella. For that they gave Randy Winn, an all-star center fielder. What other executive/managerial compensation packages can anyone else remember?

Manny Sanguillen for Chuck Tanner back in the 70's.

[xpisblack]

Wouldn't it be helpful to look at other compensation packages in order to determine what this one may be? We know the Sox were going to give up Youk for Billy Beane... but the only other one I can think of is when the Rays got Lou Pinella. For that they gave Randy Winn, an all-star center fielder. What other executive/managerial compensation packages can anyone else remember?

Well, Ozzie Guillen was basically just traded-but-don't-let's-call-it-a-trade to the Marlins-- he was released from his contract and allowed to sign elsewhere in exchange for compensation-- along with Ricardo Andres in exchange for Jhan Mariñez and Osvaldo Martinez.

In 1960, the Indians traded manager Joe Gordon for the Tigers' Lenny Dykes. As far as I know, there was no other compensation.

After the '67 season, the Mets traded RHP Bill Denehy and cash to the Senators for manager Gil Hodges.

As HH said, the Pirates' Sanguillen for the A's' Tanner and $100,000.

Here's a decent writeup that details the Sanguillen deal and mentions the others.

[SoxScout]

On what the Red Sox will get for compensation for Theo: “I think that more important is going to be the $15 million to $20 million, and then I think it’s going to be a prospect. A guy like Brett Jackson who is young, would immediately take over as the Red Sox’ regular right fielder, right-handed hitter, which they need. A guy like that is probably the most logical The Red Sox aren’t going to get Starlin Castro. They’re not going to take [Carlos] Zambrano or [Alfonso] Soriano, who they’ll probably end up releasing anyway. I think it will maybe be Jackson or a couple of young arms. They don’t have many major league-ready young pitchers.”

First off, Jackson is a LHH. But is Gammons saying we are going to get $15-20M?

http://fullcount.wee...terry-francona/

[smastroyin]

First off, Jackson is a LHH. But is Gammons saying we are going to get $15-20M?

http://fullcount.wee...terry-francona/

It seems more like he is saying that is a lot of money for Theo and the Sox would not match it.

[ScubaSteveAvery]

First off, Jackson is a LHH. But is Gammons saying we are going to get $15-20M?

http://fullcount.wee...terry-francona/

Jackson and a couple of young arms? The only arms I see worth taking are Dolis and McNutt, and McNutt is probably a bullpen arm at this point.

[Omar's Wacky Neighbor]

It seems more like he is saying that is a lot of money for Theo and the Sox would not match it.

That's how I read it: Sox don't have to match CHC offer, so either Lackey is now subsidized by $15M, or Ben has $15M extra in seed money to begin fixing things.

[Butch Hobsons elbo chips]

As long as outfielder Matt Szczur is thrown in the deal, we'll be alright. Playing in the Futures Game only 2 mos after you graduate college is a pretty good career start.
He can moonlight in replacing Wes Welker for the Patriots every November, December & January.

[soxfan121]

First off, Jackson is a LHH. But is Gammons saying we are going to get $15-20M?

http://fullcount.wee...terry-francona/

Having listened to the interview, anything Peter said should be taken with a large grain of salt. He admitted to being woken at 4 AM with the Hohler piece and sounded as disoriented and upset as I've ever heard him. Peter has spent a lot of time and juice championing Theo Epstein and sounded distraught that Theo was not taking his (Peter's) advice to take a few years off. His bit about Jackson makes less than no sense - it's a clear indication that he's not thinking straight.

[gammoseditor]

Having listened to the interview, anything Peter said should be taken with a large grain of salt. He admitted to being woken at 4 AM with the Hohler piece and sounded as disoriented and upset as I've ever heard him. Peter has spent a lot of time and juice championing Theo Epstein and sounded distraught that Theo was not taking his (Peter's) advice to take a few years off. His bit about Jackson makes less than no sense - it's a clear indication that he's not thinking straight.

The BA handbook has Jackson as a RHH. All the online sources have him as a lefty and I'm sure that's right, but if BA had it wrong Gammons probably looked it up there or got it from someone else that had it wrong.

[Section15Box113]

FWIW, MiLB has the Cubs minor league all-stars for 2011. Just posted today.

MiLB.com: Jackson, LaHair power Cubs system

C - Steve Clevenger, Tennessee/Iowa/CHC
1B - Bryan LaHair, Iowa/CHC
2B - DJ LeMahieu, Tennessee/Iowa/CHC
SS - Junior Lake, Daytona/Tennessee
3B - Gioskar Amaya, AZL
OF - Rebel Ridling, Tennessee
OF - Brett Jackson, Tennessee/Iowa
OF - Michael Burgess, Daytona
UTIL - Richard Jones, Peoria
RHSP - Nicholas Struck, Daytona/Tennessee
LHSP - Eric Jokisch, Peoria/Tennessee
RP - Frank Batista, Daytona

Also, for reference, Jonathan Mayo's Cubs top 10:

MLB.com: Mayo's Cubs' Top 10

1. Jackson
2. Matt Szczur, OF, Peoria/Daytona
3. Chris Carpenter, RHRP, Tennessee/Iowa
4. Trey McNutt, RHRP, Tennessee
5. Josh Vitters, 3B, Tennessee
6. Rafael Dolis, RHRP, Tennessee
7. Jay Jackson, RHRP, Iowa
8. Reggie Golden, OF, Boise
9. Hayden Simpson, RHRP, Peoria/AZL
10. Robert Whitenack, RHRP, Daytona/Tennessee

Not a ton of overlap. Do we get a ceiling guy or do we get their version of Bubba Bell? Maybe I'm underselling here, but beyond Jackson, does anyone jump out from that 2011 minor league all star list?

Amaya is intruiging, with a .927 OPS in Arizona rookie ball.
LeMahieu is 23 and looks like he can get on base, at least through AA. Hasn't yet adjusted to AAA and has struggled so far in Arizona this fall.
Jones can hit (.900 OPS in A ball), but struggles against lefties. Of course, mashes righties (.960).
Jokisch looked decent in Peoria as did Batista in A+.

Of the others...
Burgess had a better second half in high A and has some power.
Clevenger has hit at AA, but is already 25.
LaHair has mashed in Iowa and was born in Worcester, but turns 29 in a couple weeks.
Ridling can hit, but like Clevenger he's a 25 yo in AA. And not a catcher.
Lake? Not sure about his on-base skills.
Looks like Struck gave up some hits at Daytona/Tennessee (nevermind Iowa), but he's 22.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I guarantee that whatever the compensation is, we'll be extremely dissapointed by it.

[JohntheBaptist]

I guarantee that whatever the compensation is, we'll be extremely dissapointed by it.

Well if one actually thinks we're getting Garza for Lackey, anything's bound to disappoint.

I agree though--even having a thread speculating on it seems excessive toward what it will likely end up being.

[SoxScout]

Chicago Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts has turned over a list of players to his three top baseball people to evaluate as compensation for bringing Theo Epstein from the Boston Red Sox to run baseball operations for the Cubs, according to sources familiar with the situation.

It's not clear how the list was developed, but traditionally the team seeking compensation presents a list of players they would accept and the sides hash out a compromise.

Interim general manager Randy Bush, director of player personnel Oneri Fleita and scouting director Tim Wilken were to report back to Ricketts which player or players they would be comfortable with trading, according to the sources.

According to another major league source, part of the compensation conversation also centered around which Red Sox employees Epstein would be allowed to bring to Chicago.

http://espn.go.com/c...eo-epstein-swap

[xjack]

FWIW, MiLB has the Cubs minor league all-stars for 2011. Just posted today.

MiLB.com: Jackson, LaHair power Cubs system

1. Jackson
2. Matt Szczur, OF, Peoria/Daytona
3. Chris Carpenter, RHRP, Tennessee/Iowa
4. Trey McNutt, RHRP, Tennessee
5. Josh Vitters, 3B, Tennessee
6. Rafael Dolis, RHRP, Tennessee
7. Jay Jackson, RHRP, Iowa
8. Reggie Golden, OF, Boise
9. Hayden Simpson, RHRP, Peoria/AZL
10. Robert Whitenack, RHRP, Daytona/Tennessee

The guy on that list who could really help in '12 is Dolis. Big arm and a 2-to-1 GB/FB ratio -- could be a valuable 7th inning guy.

[SoxScout]

The guy on that list who could really help in '12 is Dolis. Big arm and a 2-to-1 GB/FB ratio -- could be a valuable 7th inning guy.

Also pitched in AA at age 23 with bad walk totals and shocking terrible strikeout numbers considering his stuff.

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

I guarantee that whatever the compensation is, we'll be extremely dissapointed by it.

Agreed. Maybe a middling prospect and enough cash for Henry to buy next year's teams new headphones.

[gammoseditor]

Reports are that Chris Carpenter has been hitting 100 in the AFL. Solid relief prospect.

[Yazdog8]

Looks like the Cubs want to throw in cash and the Sox want prospects.

Cubs/Sox negotiations hit bump

[cahlton]

Per John Dennis and Alex Speier, Cubs want to give us $; we want players. So far, nobody's compromising.

http://www.weei.com/...ations-hit-bump

[OCD SS]

Shouldn't the compensation have been worked out prior to all the announcements?