32 replies to this topic

[ivanvamp]

Abs thought that the last time I started this thread a couple of days ago that it was the "Island of bad ideas". Thread locked. Not sure if it was because the *idea* of discussing how to fix the Red Sox is a bad idea or if he felt my specific ideas were bad.

I'm trying this again....and I won't offer my own ideas for now. It's clear that this team is broken and needs to be fixed. I cannot imagine how discussing this as Red Sox fans is a bad idea. So let's talk about what you would do to make sure that this (2011 disaster) doesn't happen again in 2012.

Abs, I have tried to PM you for 2 days but the server is not allowing me to do it for some reason.

[Wake's knuckle]

I don't think there's any need for panic. The team doesn't need to be dismantled, although maybe the medical staff needs to be evaluated -- too many injuries and too much disagreement between players and team doctors in the media, which is never a good sign.

C: Lavarnay and Salty -- convince Varitek to retire and join the coaching staff (and stay ready to play)
1b: Adrian Gonzalez
2b: Pedroia
SS: either give Iglesias a shot or trade him and find a FA (Hardy would be my choice).
3b: Youk
LF: Crawford
CF: Ellsbury
RF: probably not Reddick, either Kalish if he's ready or FA (Beltran?) if he's not
DH: resign Ortiz
IF: Lowrie, Aviles
OF: Reddick, McDonald

S1: Lester
S2: Beckett
S3: Buchholz
S4: FA? Not sure Tazawa is ready/will ever be ready..
S5: Lackey (we are stuck with him)

BP: let Papelbon walk and promote from within. Maybe try to swoop in a grab a FA at the end of the signing period. Someone good always seems to slip through.

We decrease salary in RF, SS, C, and closer. Hardy is underrated, as he's a good glove man who can hit OK (i.e. best case scenario for Iglesias) and should come fairly cheap -- unlike Reyes, who I would stay FAR FAR away from. Beltran is old and injury prone, but the market for RFs is pretty thin -- and quite old. We'd expect Ellsbury, Ortiz, and Youk to decline, but Salty, Crawford, SS, and RF should improve. If the starters can stay healthy (always a big IF), this team could win 100 games. However, I would make depth at SP a top priority -- apparently there is now a corollary to TINSTAAPP -- TINSTATMuSP (there is no such thing as too much starting pitching).

[Royal Reader]

Hardy's not a Free Agent? The guys on the broadcast last night were saying the Orioles extended him. In any case, I want nothing to do with FA short stops and middle infielders who hit 30 dingers don't come anywhere near as cheap as you seemed to be suggesting.

The problem with the team is that they've busted on their last two big FA acquisitions. There's not really a lot that can be done about this except hoping they come around, and giving this FO more money to throw at FA doesn't seem like a great idea. Seems like for once, it's us and not the MFY who are stuck with the Jason Giambi/Jeff Weaver type contracts.

[starfailure]

Hardy already signed an extension with the Orioles.

[ivanvamp]

I don't think there's any need for panic. The team doesn't need to be dismantled, although maybe the medical staff needs to be evaluated -- too many injuries and too much disagreement between players and team doctors in the media, which is never a good sign.

C: Lavarnay and Salty -- convince Varitek to retire and join the coaching staff (and stay ready to play)
1b: Adrian Gonzalez
2b: Pedroia
SS: either give Iglesias a shot or trade him and find a FA (Hardy would be my choice).

Hardy signed a 3-year, 22.5 million dollar extension with the O's (per baseball-reference.com). He's unavailable.

3b: Youk
LF: Crawford
CF: Ellsbury
RF: probably not Reddick, either Kalish if he's ready or FA (Beltran?) if he's not
DH: resign Ortiz
IF: Lowrie, Aviles
OF: Reddick, McDonald

S1: Lester
S2: Beckett
S3: Buchholz
S4: FA? Not sure Tazawa is ready/will ever be ready..
S5: Lackey (we are stuck with him)

BP: let Papelbon walk and promote from within. Maybe try to swoop in a grab a FA at the end of the signing period. Someone good always seems to slip through.

We decrease salary in RF, SS, C, and closer. Hardy is underrated, as he's a good glove man who can hit OK (i.e. best case scenario for Iglesias) and should come fairly cheap -- unlike Reyes, who I would stay FAR FAR away from. Beltran is old and injury prone, but the market for RFs is pretty thin -- and quite old. We'd expect Ellsbury, Ortiz, and Youk to decline, but Salty, Crawford, SS, and RF should improve. If the starters can stay healthy (always a big IF), this team could win 100 games. However, I would make depth at SP a top priority -- apparently there is now a corollary to TINSTAAPP -- TINSTATMuSP (there is no such thing as too much starting pitching).

In my other thread I thought the Sox should be willing to move Youk in a package to obtain Zack Cosart (quality young SS) and Chris Heisey (underrated RHH OF with power) from Cincy. No clue if those guys are available, but it's part of our job as fans to speculate on such things.

Two schools of thought here: (1) blow it up. Too many problems that were revealed this year to just maintain. Or (2) assume this team is a good team that had a ridiculously bad run of luck and that just needs tweaking.

[ivanvamp]

Other options.....

(1) Trade Youkilis to SF in a package for Matt Cain. SF has tons of pitching and needs hitting. They have Sandoval at 3b, but Youk could play 1b for them. Then trade prospects for David Wright. Two years left on his contract, not awful money. Still has ability, probably would do very well away from CitiField. Mets need to cut payroll and he's a likely candidate to go. Even in a down year, had an ops+ of 114 this year. Youks was 123. In the end you trade Youks and prospects for Wright and Cain.

(2) Let Ortiz walk, move Youks to DH, then trade for a 3b like Wright.

(3) Trade Youks to Atlanta for one of their young pitchers, namely Brandon Beachy. He doesn't have the prospect pedigree of their other young studs like Hanson, Teheran, Delgado, etc. They have those three plus Jurrjens and Vizcaino. They are loaded with quality young starting pitching, but they desperately need an offensive upgrade. I don't know if Chipper Jones is going to continue to play much longer, though he was solid this year (123 ops+). He is 39 years old and his contract runs through 2012 (vesting option for 2013). So maybe this can't work.

(4) Try to pry Garza from the Cubs. Garza finished strong and has succeeded in the AL East. Or make a smaller deal and get Ted Lilly from the Dodgers. They're a wreck and need to shed payroll. Lilly also has experience in the AL East, and he's a solid pitcher overall. Finished the year on a serious roll.

[jnlevetoncnmt]

I think the obvious fixes are:

1. Tek and Wake need to retire, I'll miss them but it's time for this team to give younger guys a shot through the season.

2. A new 3b coach, before anyone asks me "who would you suggest" let me say that I would feel more comfortable if our 3b coach were a random pickup from any MLB or AAA coaching staff. I just don't see how the players have confidence in Bogar after some of his sends this season.

3. Resign Paps and Papi. Papelbon is no Marianno Rivera, but he's the best available closer going into next year. Papi isn't going to hit 40HR, but once again, he's the best available option for the position(unless they want to go after Fielder).

4. Sign another starting pitcher. I would love to get CJ Wilson but they really just need someone average to be the #5 guy

5. Willingham for RF.

6. Work on fundamentals in spring training, especially defense and baserunning. Do some little league drills with Crawford to teach him how to play baseball (seriously).

These suggestions may put them overbudget, but they owe the fans at this point. They need to go overbudget for a couple years because of the Lackey/Crawford monetary disasters. They need to recognize that they are spending 36mill a year on those two guys that give them nothing and act accordingly.

[Mike in CT]

How to fix the Red Sox?

Most importantly is to fix the people who do not play between the lines.

1. The minor leagues did not produce any impact arms to help the big club this year, and it already looks like there will be no help in 2012. This is a massive problem that has to be answered. They've done a horrendous job of developing amateur pitching lately. The scouting staff and the minor league pitching instructors need to be thoroughly reviewed. You are going to have to look towards organizations like Tampa and Texas if you need better evaluations. We are not getting it done.

I'm kinda tired of this organization using so many resources on Asia/Australia, 88 mph fastball college pitchers with pinpoint accuracy, funky delivery kids, and trying to turn college relievers into starters.


2. There is no way to truly know how good advanced scouting is or isn't, but the lineup is just consistently lost when they see a pitcher for the first time. Further, the game plan of our pitchers appears to be terrible at times.

3. Medical and Conditioning Staff.

4. Personally I think the regular season goal of this team sucks. "Win 95 games" is the goal you come up with when you expect to finish 2nd in this division. It's just a nicer way of saying it. How about "win the division" be the goal? Or how about "win 100 games"? It sure does seem that this team coasts when they see 95 wins within their grasp. It's better to aim high and miss than to aim lower and hit. Why not raise the bar on these guys?

5. Fire anyone who suggests bringing Wakefield back, particularly for that stupid Red Sox win record. The organization has gone too frickin' soft lately. You don't owe anyone anything. Tim will get over it.

Edited by Mike in CT, 29 September 2011 - 01:36 PM.

[steveluck7]

1.) Address the scouting. As mentioned before, advanced scouting has been sub-par but I also think the general major league scouting / player evaluation has been awful. Their track record with recent FA signings speaks for itself. It's not all on Theo. It's on the scouts and their overall philosophy (Carmine?!?)

2.)Let Ortiz walk. Sorry, but I think it's time. Doing so will allow them to move a breaking-down Youkilis to full-time DH (or platoon 1b); make the R-L line-up balance a little more, well, balanced; allow them to acquire a stop-gap 3b until Middlebrooks is ready (i'm high on him)

3.)Let the 3 year farewell tours of Wakefield and Varitek come to an end. Move on, if it's Salty and Lavarnway or one of them plus a defensive specialist catcher, I don't care.

4.)I don't buy that Bard has shown he can't handle the closers role. He was nails for most of the season and, IMO, can be a reliable closer who costs considerably less than Paplebon will command.

5.)Figure out the Lackey situation. Eitehr trade him for an equally bad contract and hope for the "change of scenery" emergence of your acquisition, place him on irrevocable waivers and see what happens, or acquire a reliable (innings wise) #3 or # 4 starter and make Lackey the clear # 5... sunk cost.

6.) That means finding a suitor for Dice-K. I do think he could succeed in the NL. San Diego, perhaps? I'd certainly shop him around, the asking price won't be too high.

7.) Figure out what Lars Anderson can get you in a trade (or as a piece of a trade). He has no spot on the time, his biggest value will be on the trade market (and that may not be too high)

8.) Figure out of Tito is the proper fit for this group. Is he too soft on players? Was spring training too much of a country club? His style is great with self-starting vets but this team now has a lot of new faces that have never played in this type f environment and who've never made this type of money before... they need more structure, IMO.

[QuinielaBox]

I don't think we have any quick fix to our problems.

Lackey - BUST but we have to get productivity out of him next year from the #4 or #5 starter position
Bobby Jenks - BUST but we may need him as the set up man or even closer.
Carl Crawford - BUST - but he must come better or we are in deep doodoo for a long time.
Salty - I think he was a SEMI-Bust - he has to be the fill-in until that Lavarney kid is ready.

Get Buchholz and Youk healthy

I don't know if we should resign Papelbon - he costs too much money and seems to fail when we need him the most.

Papi it may be time to move on and bring another bat.

Coaching staff - Say good bye to the pitching coach and possibly Francona. Promote Varitek here.

Right now, we are effectively a cellar dweller in the AL east. If the struggles continue in 2012, can we have a fire sale at the trading deadline for prospects?

[Wake's knuckle]

Whoops, I missed that Hardy was extended -- the page I looked out was evidently out of date. I don't like any of the other FA SSs, although you can trust Theo to push for Reyes. Maybe we should just let Iglesias hit like a pitcher for a few years until something better turns up. I think this team can carry a black hole, considering how well he picks it. I don't think Paps is worth the money and I could be talked out of Ortiz -- if he has another year as good as this one, I'll eat my hat (no, not really, but you get my point).

I really don't feel that Tito was the problem with this team -- only one of the top 4 starters out of spring training was healthy down the stretch and Bard went cold to compound the problem. I don't think Tito should take the fall for that... although again I'd consider a shake-up of the medical staff.

[stankyeddie]

1) Send Beckett to Ellsbury's training joint in Arizona. He's too old to be carrying that spare tire anymore. His only chance at returning to elite status is to be in phenomenal shape.

2) Put Wakefield out of his misery. He's an absolute Sox legend, but even he can't believe he deserves a spot in the rotation. Did he really say "the fans deserve an opportunity to watch me chase that record"? I think we deserve WAY more than that. What fans are thinking about THAT?

3) It's highly unlikely that they'll dump or find a taker for Lackey. Best case he puts his personal issues behind him and becomes a serviceable #5, and an inning eater.

4) Get Youkilis off 3B. He doesn't have the hips for it. His bat is still very valuable, but I wonder if he's got the mental ability to be a DH who rarely sees the field. The trade of him for Cain talk sounds pretty good to me.

5) Let Reddick and Kalish duke it out for RF. They're an instant upgrade from Drew and don't cost us anything. Crawford will bounce back--he has to. If Kalish/Reddick play up to expectations, we've got an awfully good OF.

6) David Wright can be had from the Mets. They've got to go for it. A lineup of: 1) Ellsbury CF, 2) Pedroia 2B, 3) Adrian Gonzalez 1B, 4) Youkilis DH, 5) Wright 3B, 6) Kalish/Reddick RF, 7) Crawford LF, 8) Salty C, 9) Scutaro SS is not a bad way to start the season at all. Your bench is: INF Aviles, Lowrie, OF TBD, C/1B Lavarnway. You gotta upgrade from Darnell McDonald. Why does Joey Gathright keep finding his way back here?

7) I like the sound of moving Bard to the rotation: 1) Beckett (20 lbs lighter with abs of steel), 2) Lester (bounce-back), 3) Buchholz, 4) Bedard? Bard?, 5) Lackey, with Dice-K after the ASB. Perhaps Andrew Miller sticks around and figures it out in Spring Training, and maybe Felix Doubront bounces back.

8) They've got to re-sign Paps. Bullpen: Albers, Aceves, Gutierrez is a start. Throw in Tazawa and Weiland. Grab a few FAs. And it's definitely time to make a call on Bowden. Can he help in the BP? I don't see any great setup men on the current roster.

What a winter this is going to be.

[ivanvamp]

The Sox had significant problems down the stretch, but it also could be easily boiled down to one thing: Buchholz' injury.

Buchholz: 14 gs, 82.2 ip, 76 h, 34 r, 32 er, 10 hr, 31 bb, 60 k, 3.48 era, 1.29 whip
- - - - -
Weiland: 5 gs, 24.2 ip, 29 h, 22 r, 21 er, 5 hr, 12 bb, 13 k, 7.66 era, 1.66 whip, 2.2 WAR
A.Miller: 12 gs, 65.0 ip, 77 h, 43 r, 40 er, 8 hr, 41 bb, 50 k, 5.54 era, 1.82 whip, -0.6 WAR
TOTAL: 17 gs, 89.2 ip, 106 h, 65 r, 61 er, 13 hr, 53 bb, 63 k, 6.12 era, 1.77 whip, -0.2 WAR

If the Sox had been able to give the 17 starts given to Weiland/Miller instead to Buchholz, how much of a difference would it have made? Based on WAR alone, that trade would be worth 3 wins. If that exchange is made, the Sox, relatively comfortably in fact, make the playoffs.

It's entirely possible that all the Red Sox need to be a playoff team next year is this exact same team *with a healthy Clay Buchholz*.

[touchstone033]

You know, when I opened up this thread, I thought I was going to see a lot of calls to fire both Theo and Francona -- the typical reaction I saw in the Globe comments. As if somehow this collapse was the result of a lack of will or morals or whatever.

But, really, you have to blame injuries for the collapse. That combined with a lack of pitching depth. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Beckett, Lester, and Bard were pitching in pain this September. I wouldn't be surprised if Bard is never right again.

That's the second year in a row where injuries have significantly impacted the Red Sox. Which makes sense, because injured guys tend to get injured again. Scutaro, Lowrie, Pedroia, Youkilis, Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz will probably miss time again next year, too.

Not sure the Sox can "fix" that. But they can try to build depth.

C: I'd bring back Salty and 'Tek and let Salty pick up more of the catching duties. I don't think Lavarnway is a realistic option here.
1B: A-Gone.
2B: Pedroia.
3B: I'd split between Aviles, Lowrie, and Youk.
SS: Scutaro/Lowrie, Iglesias filling in when these guys are hurt. But I don't think Iglesias will ever be a good enough hitter to be the Sox everday SS.
LF: Crawford
CF: Ellsbury
RF: Reddick or Kalish. Let Drew walk.
DH: Youkilis and whoever else needs a rest.

Not as good an offense as this year, but should be more than adequate. Drew and Ortiz are the big departures, and fill their spots internally. That'll save about $26M next year.

Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Lackey are your known SPs.

2012 will actually be a rich FA market for pitchers. Bedard, Buerle, Chen, Edwin Jackson, Kuroda, Oswalt, Pineiro, Vazquez, CJ Wilson are all available. All we need is a 4-man, so someone like Chen or Pineiro would probably do. The 2013 market is even better, so guys in their last year of contract, like Gavin Floyd, Scott Baker, John Danks, and Zack Greineke, could probably be had in a trade. If I were Theo, I'd try to sign some risks to minor-league contracts. Brad Penny, Chien-Ming Wang, Kyle Davies, say. Arms we could use in a pinch.

The '12 reliever market is rich, too. Bell, Rauch, Soriano, Valverde, Farnsworth would probably cost too much, but we could probably grab a couple of role players -- Rhodes, Oliver, Madson, Linebrink, say. Or see how some of the kids do in the 'pen.

Lackey to the bullpen?

I think the scouting department is fine. I don't think the drafts have been bad. The Sox drafts usually are highly regarded. I think the problem with pitching prospects has to do with player development.

[ivanvamp]

You know, when I opened up this thread, I thought I was going to see a lot of calls to fire both Theo and Francona -- the typical reaction I saw in the Globe comments. As if somehow this collapse was the result of a lack of will or morals or whatever.

But, really, you have to blame injuries for the collapse. That combined with a lack of pitching depth. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Beckett, Lester, and Bard were pitching in pain this September. I wouldn't be surprised if Bard is never right again.

That's the second year in a row where injuries have significantly impacted the Red Sox. Which makes sense, because injured guys tend to get injured again. Scutaro, Lowrie, Pedroia, Youkilis, Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz will probably miss time again next year, too.

Not sure the Sox can "fix" that. But they can try to build depth.

C: I'd bring back Salty and 'Tek and let Salty pick up more of the catching duties. I don't think Lavarnway is a realistic option here.
1B: A-Gone.
2B: Pedroia.
3B: I'd split between Aviles, Lowrie, and Youk.
SS: Scutaro/Lowrie, Iglesias filling in when these guys are hurt. But I don't think Iglesias will ever be a good enough hitter to be the Sox everday SS.
LF: Crawford
CF: Ellsbury
RF: Reddick or Kalish. Let Drew walk.
DH: Youkilis and whoever else needs a rest.

I'm kind of coming around to the idea of letting Ortiz go and using the DH spot for a guy that needs rest, rotate guys, etc. So what if they let Ortiz and his $12 million go. Bring up Lavarnway and his hitting potential. Let Varitek go and add another veteran catcher inexpensively *or* keep Varitek for not much money. Have Youk play 3b and when he does, have Lavarnway be the DH. Or let Youk play 1b and have Gonzalez be the DH to keep his bat in the lineup but give his body a rest. Or have Youk DH, let Lavarnway catch, and have Aviles play 3b.

It allows the team to have much greater roster flexibility. And, over the course of a full season, I suspect that a healthy Youks + Lavarnway + Gonzalez put together would put up similar DH numbers to what Papi has done. And they'd have an extra $12 million to go towards a starting pitcher.

It would also further Lavarnway's development, at least as a hitter. Let him get more PA against MLB-caliber pitching, have him play catcher once in a while and work with big-league coaches (including Varitek and/or the other veteran catcher).

[OnWisc]

Without getting into the conditioning/mindset stuff....

1) Assess the market for Papelbon. While his departure seemed both imminent and rather unlamentable heading into this season, neither of those terms seem applicable anymore. Management can't afford to swing and miss on any more major cash outlays. Paps has proven he can perform in Boston. Neither can they afford to take the $15mm they'd save by letting Paps walk and roll the dice on a handful of bullpen arms that may leave us with the same issues we've been dealing with the past month. I wouldn't write off 4/60, or 3 at a higher AAV. Problem is, that may end up being just the starting point.

2) See what we could do with Carl. Hard as it was for me to believe, Crawford set a career high in P/PA, and a career low (by a wide margin) 1st pitch swing rate. And still turned in the wonderful performance we saw. I think he's a candidate to rebound, but I also think that's what may make it possible to move him. I'd rather see him have a good season with another club then turn in another year like he did in a Sox uniform and eliminate all trade value he has. And 2017 is long time away. Cubs have Soriano through 2014 at $18M per, and he's about as popular in Chicago as Crawford is here. Crawford would offer a large defensive upgrade out there, especially as Soriano enters the second half of his 30's. And if Crawford rebounds, could arguably still contribute by the time the Cubs have rebuilt. Soriano still brings enough to the table offensively to get time as a DH and we'd free ourselves of the last three years of Crawford's deal, albeit probably having to contribute something.

3) Ditch the nostalgia. There was a discussion recently about our lack of "quality depth", and several people made the observation that the term is really an oxymoron. Guys want to go where they can play, and once the roster's full, you can't just bring in a bunch of serviceable players to stick in AAA in case they're needed. Anyone who signs up for AAA is pretty much by definition not going to be quality. Which means that you need to add that quality on the major league roster. While that's easier said than done, continuing to allocate spots to guys like Tek and Wake is an issue. Watching guys take second at will, having to do a Proctor job on Aceves, and engaging in trade talks for Bruce Chen on the eve of game 162 all point to the need to seriously re-examine the use of certain roster spots.

EDIT:

4) In the likely scenario that we don't move Lackey, have a contingency plan heading into the season. Hopefully what's wrong is fixable, but if not, don't wait until he gets absolutely fucking destroyed in his first three or four starts to examine the options. Management needs to know heading into the season what the plan is if Lackey is just entirely ineffective. Whether it's moving him to the pen or even just eating the whole deal.

Edited by OnWisc, 29 September 2011 - 03:34 PM.

[ivanvamp]

3) Ditch the nostalgia. There was a discussion recently about our lack of "quality depth", and several people made the observation that the term is really an oxymoron. Guys want to go where they can play, and once the roster's full, you can't just bring in a bunch of serviceable players to stick in AAA in case they're needed. Anyone who signs up for AAA is pretty much by definition not going to be quality. Which means that you need to add that quality on the major league roster. While that's easier said than done, continuing to allocate spots to guys like Tek and Wake is an issue. Watching guys take second at will, having to do a Proctor job on Aceves, and engaging in trade talks for Bruce Chen on the eve of game 162 all point to the need to seriously re-examine the use of certain roster spots.

The Yankees added guys like Andruw Jones and Eric Chavez as depth. Neither is good enough to get a starting gig anymore, so they came to NY as subs. Jones turned out great - 122 ops+, and while Chavez' ops+ was really pretty bad (79), he sure seemed to come up with quite a few big hits for them.

The key for them this year, though, was the unbelievable performance they got from three pitchers:

- rookie Ivan Nova (16-4, 3.70 era)
- retreat Freddie Garcia (12-8, 3.62 era)
- out from the grave Bartolo Colon (8-10, 4.00 era) - but he was better than that for most of the year

That's a combined 36-22 record from three guys that, honestly, I didn't think would contribute very much at all to their season. The Sox got *NOTHING* from their retreads and reclamation projects: Miller, Jenks, Wheeler. The only one who helped was Aceves, and of course he was great, but still. One guy. The Yanks got huge contributions from a lot of retreads this year.

You find good depth when (a) you are willing to bring up young, talented players and let them be on the major league bench instead of getting more AB in the minors, and (b) you find veteran retreads that have surprisingly good years.

It's why I am in favor of having guys like Kalish and Reddick and Lavarnway on the team next year (if they're not dealt)....let them learn the trade in the majors.

[LostinNJ]

I don't know what they should do, but here's what I think they will do: they will let both Paps and Papi walk. This is based on my Theory of the Two Theos.

There's Regular Guy Theo, who spends aggressively on free agents, signs Mike Lowell to an overly generous extension, gets rid of Manny, etc. He can get a little greedy and tends to trust his gut, sometimes too much.

Then there's Smarty Pants Theo, who embraces ideas like trying the bullpen by committee, trading Nomar, letting Pedro and Lowe walk, acquiring Bruce Chen for Game 163, etc. He makes cold-blooded decisions, spends judiciously, and calculates, sometimes too much.

I think we're going to see a lot of Smarty Pants Theo this winter. He will decide that it is not a good investment of resources to spend more than $10 million per for three or four years of a closer; he will look at the the way Tampa put together a cheap but excellent bullpen last winter. He will gladly take the draft picks for Papelbon.

Smarty Pants Theo will also decide not to invest a lot of money in an aging DH who, let's be honest, did not do much in September when the club was sinking (1 HR, 8 RBI). He will decide to spread DH duties among his other players, some of whom are getting up there, and many of whom were clearly worn out by the end of the year. A rotating DH allows for flexibility, something he will think this club needs. He will gladly take the draft picks here as well.

Regular Guy Theo would like to take John Lackey out sailing somewhere past Martha's Vineyard and then come back without him. Smarty Pants Theo knows that right now he has to pencil Lackey into the rotation because the other Theo signed him to that stupid contract. I bet sometimes (like today) S. P Theo wants to punch out R. G. Theo, and vice-versa.

[Jack Rabbit Slim]

i think the lineup and the bullpen pretty much stay as is. The real question for me is the rotation.

1. Beckett - notorious for alternating good year/ bad year, struggled with back problems and isn't in great shape, how much can you count on him being a top of the rotation starter?
2. Lester - something was a little off with him this year but I think he is very dependable going forward
3. Buchholz - Coming off of an injury that may be a problem going forward, however, I believe he will be a top 2 or 3 pitcher next year
4. Lackey - Best case scenario is that he pitched through an elbow injury all year and thats why his numbers suck. Whether it is fixable over the offseason or it is full-fledged tommy john has a huge impact on their approach.
5. Matsuzaka - Won't be back til mid to late season but could provide a big boost if there are injuries
6. Wakefield - I hated watching him in Sept too, but for most of the season he pitched pretty well and there aren't too many SP that are better AND willing to come out of the pen

So that leaves us with 3 dependable or minor question marks (Lester, Beckett, Buchholz), 1 huge question mark in Lackey, a pitcher that won't be of any help until atleast half way through the season, and a mediocre 6th starter type that probably won't stay healthy for a whole season if he is needed.

They need to get (FA or trade) another mid level starter and if Lackey has TJ surgery, they might need 2. Some intriguing names on the market (Buehrle, E. Jackson, Kuroda, Maholm) but I don't know if any will be cheap enough to fit into a budget with both Ortiz and Pap returning. Theo may need to get creative on the trade market.

[jimv54321]

Most of this is stuff I came up with between 2 and 4 AM this morning, so it might be insane, but here are my thoughts on the offseason goals for the team.

• Bring BOTH Theo and Tito back (pick up both of his options so it isn't an issue again in '12). There is what, one or two better managers in all the majors in the last decade, right? Francona absolutely deserved Manager of the Year in 2010 for keeping that fustercluck of a team in contention for as long as he did. Between that and stellar work since he came here (especially in 2004, 2007 and 2008), the man should not be fired for one bad month.
• Fire and replace both Curt Young (pitching coach) and Tim “Crosseyes” Bogar (3B), both for horrendous job performance and to appease the howlers and mediots. More than Tito, I would have expected Young to be the one to do something to get any of our starters functioning even adequately over the last four weeks. Bogar should require ZERO explanation.
• Frame John Lackey for a crime (or banish him to the bullpen). He CANNOT start another game unless all five starters and Wakefield are all unavailable. My frustration with Lack has surpassed anything I've felt before. He should earn his way back into the rotation. That seems an appropriate response to the worst season by any Red Sox starter ever (unless Massachusetts offers a public pardon for his head on a platter).
• Sign CJ Wilson if possible for Beckett/Lackey type money. I fully accept the unlikely chances of that, but it had to be mentioned. He's too old for anything bigger/longer unless you were truly desperate for him to be your team ace.
• Try to sign Jacoby Ellsbury long term (though will be stuck year-to-year with Boras).
• Trade Kevin Youkilis (I really doubt you could get someone on par with a Matt Cain given his age and injury concerns, but to the A's perhaps for Grant Balfour and B prospect).
• Sign Michael Cuddyer and let Drew leave/retire. He can hit LHP and RHP and would allow one of Reddick or Kalish to compliment him as a fourth outfielder.
• If unsuccessful with Wilson, sign Mark Buehrle or Edwin Jackson or someone similar as fourth starter.
• Resign David Ortiz on 2-Year Deal (w/ team option for third year if necessary). There isn't any better offensive output at the position in the league, so unless the Red Sox keep Youkilis they should resign Papi. This contract would allow him to finish his career with the Sox (a chance not given to Pedro), but if anyone deserves that consideration it's the first hero of 2004.
• Sign Bruce Chen for place as fifth starter. The lesson as always was that there is no way to have enough pitching.
• Let Jonathan Papelbon walk (I absolutely, positively, 100% want him back but someone will offer 4 years, Sox will not).
• Sign temp 3B (Eric Chavez, etc.) to split time with Lowrie/Aviles and build Will Middlebrooks towards a midseason call-up. This might be a year or so premature given his lack of experience at AAA, but between the multiple options the position could be managed. Youk's injury history the last few years concerns me and it will only be exacerbated the longer he is at 3rd.
• Exercise options on Marco Scutaro and Dan Wheeler. Scutaro was one of the few players that didn't disappear this month and given the lack of options and Iglesias' inability to develop offensively against the higher levels of pitching, I prefer going with a known quantity (92 and 110 OPS in the last two seasons) over someone off the free agent scrap heap.
• Resign Tim Wakefield for bullpen and eventual replacement level starter when injuries occur. An almost unmanagable situation if Lackey is also relegated to the bullpen, but this isn't about what Wakefield or the fans "deserve", it's about a serviceable back-up to the starting five. Wakefield ERA+ of 83, 1.358 WHIP and 7-8 record aren't something you want in your starting five, but as this year proved you can NEVER have enough starting pitching and Wakefield is a known quantity available at an affordable price.
• Give Ryan Lavarnway back-up catcher/DH/1B chance and let Varitek leave/retire.

[absintheofmalaise]

Abs thought that the last time I started this thread a couple of days ago that it was the "Island of bad ideas". Thread locked. Not sure if it was because the *idea* of discussing how to fix the Red Sox is a bad idea or if he felt my specific ideas were bad.

I'm trying this again....and I won't offer my own ideas for now. It's clear that this team is broken and needs to be fixed. I cannot imagine how discussing this as Red Sox fans is a bad idea. So let's talk about what you would do to make sure that this (2011 disaster) doesn't happen again in 2012.

Abs, I have tried to PM you for 2 days but the server is not allowing me to do it for some reason.

The clue was in me calling it the Island of Bad Ideas. I've received a bunch of PMs over the past few days. Threads are locked for a reason around here. Yet, you persist in posting trade ideas despite promising in this thread not to do so.

In my other thread I thought the Sox should be willing to move Youk in a package to obtain Zack Cosart (quality young SS) and Chris Heisey (underrated RHH OF with power) from Cincy. No clue if those guys are available, but it's part of our job as fans to speculate on such things.

Only if they make sense for all of the parties involved. I'll start a trade ideas thread for you and move your posts there.

[HR Paperstacks]

I don't know what they should do, but here's what I think they will do: they will let both Paps and Papi walk. This is based on my Theory of the Two Theos.

There's Regular Guy Theo, who spends aggressively on free agents, signs Mike Lowell to an overly generous extension, gets rid of Manny, etc. He can get a little greedy and tends to trust his gut, sometimes too much.

Then there's Smarty Pants Theo, who embraces ideas like trying the bullpen by committee, trading Nomar, letting Pedro and Lowe walk, acquiring Bruce Chen for Game 163, etc. He makes cold-blooded decisions, spends judiciously, and calculates, sometimes too much.

I think we're going to see a lot of Smarty Pants Theo this winter.

If we do see Smarty Pants Theo, then hopefully we find a way to get quality contributions from our farm system. We have had a lot of success stories in recent years, but it seems like we've stagnated to a degree. Maybe that's just an overreaction, but it feels that way, at least in the aftermath of this season, where it seemed like we couldn't get consistent contributions from anyone. I know that you can't flip the switch and make things happen, but we need to start cashing in with our picks.

Edited by HR Paperstacks, 29 September 2011 - 07:41 PM.

[ivanvamp]

The clue was in me calling it the Island of Bad Ideas.

It was unclear to me whether you didn't like my particular suggestions or, in general, the idea of a thread where we discuss things the Sox could do to fix what has gone wrong.

I've received a bunch of PMs over the past few days.

But none from me because when I tried to do it, it gave me an error message. Don't know what to tell you about that.

Threads are locked for a reason around here. Yet, you persist in posting trade ideas despite promising in this thread not to do so.

I didn't offer a carte blanche promise to not suggest trades. I didn't want to suggest trades in my opening post of this particular thread because I wanted to get the ball rolling on a topic of conversation and wait for others to respond with some of their thoughts before I dove in. Seemed like a pretty reasonable course of action to me, especially in light of my first crack at this topic.

So now I see that you flatter me with a thread that has my name on it, apparently in mock honor. That's cool. I do not understand where your distaste for me comes from - all the feedback I've ever gotten from pretty much everyone that's bothered to say anything to me in SoSH has been positive....except from you. But, since you're a guy who wields power around here, I'm obviously at your mercy.

As for the "Island of Bad Ideas" comment....I kind of believe that a message board - especially the Sandbox, not even the main board - is (our ought to be) a place where we Red Sox fans can discuss the team, talk about what we might want to see the team do, etc. You know, the stuff that fans always do. I would think that if people thought the suggestions I offered weren't good that they'd explain why...you know, have a conversation about it. And those that aren't interested would choose to not participate. I thought that is what places like this are for. I must be wrong.

[absintheofmalaise]

It was unclear to me whether you didn't like my particular suggestions or, in general, the idea of a thread where we discuss things the Sox could do to fix what has gone wrong.



But none from me because when I tried to do it, it gave me an error message. Don't know what to tell you about that.



I didn't offer a carte blanche promise to not suggest trades. I didn't want to suggest trades in my opening post of this particular thread because I wanted to get the ball rolling on a topic of conversation and wait for others to respond with some of their thoughts before I dove in. Seemed like a pretty reasonable course of action to me, especially in light of my first crack at this topic.

So now I see that you flatter me with a thread that has my name on it, apparently in mock honor. That's cool. I do not understand where your distaste for me comes from - all the feedback I've ever gotten from pretty much everyone that's bothered to say anything to me in SoSH has been positive....except from you. But, since you're a guy who wields power around here, I'm obviously at your mercy.

As for the "Island of Bad Ideas" comment....I kind of believe that a message board - especially the Sandbox, not even the main board - is (our ought to be) a place where we Red Sox fans can discuss the team, talk about what we might want to see the team do, etc. You know, the stuff that fans always do. I would think that if people thought the suggestions I offered weren't good that they'd explain why...you know, have a conversation about it. And those that aren't interested would choose to not participate. I thought that is what places like this are for. I must be wrong.

Again, I used the word Ideas for a reason. If I thought the thread was a bad idea I wouldn't have used that word. There is nothing wrong with a thread about ways to improve the team. But pie in the sky trade ideas shouldn't go in a thread about improving the team. Trade ideas that have some basis in reality should. I like discussion. Discussion is good. That's why I didn't close the new thread you started It had some good discussion in it. Sorry we don't have a Book with what to do and what not to do around here, but we do have standards. The Sandbox has the same standards as the main board. You should know what they are.

[LMontro]

C: Lavarnay and Salty -- convince Varitek to retire and join the coaching staff (and stay ready to play)

Could we put an end to these kinds of thoughts/wishes? Christ. I avoid sports radio because of this crap. 0.00% chance of happening.

[priestvalon]

Noticing a lot of love for Youk at 3b. I don't think he is really capable at staying long term at 3b. A platoon? Sure but platoons have been a bit of a problem historically for the Sox. He really is more a 1b/DH. I guess you could let Ortiz go.

[ivanvamp]

Again, I used the word Ideas for a reason. If I thought the thread was a bad idea I wouldn't have used that word. There is nothing wrong with a thread about ways to improve the team. But pie in the sky trade ideas shouldn't go in a thread about improving the team. Trade ideas that have some basis in reality should. I like discussion. Discussion is good. That's why I didn't close the new thread you started It had some good discussion in it. Sorry we don't have a Book with what to do and what not to do around here, but we do have standards. The Sandbox has the same standards as the main board. You should know what they are.

What, in particular, do you think was pie in the sky about the ideas I had? Take the Cincy idea for example. Here was the idea: trade Youkilis, Iglesias, Lowrie, and Britton (or Pimentel) to Cincinnati for Zack Cozart, Scott Rolen, and Chris Heisey.

I gave a full paragraph to the rationale, from both teams' perspectives. OF COURSE I have no idea if such a trade is actually feasible. But I'm offering Cincy a significant 3b upgrade, a SS prospect that everyone seems high on, a useful IF piece (Lowrie), and a pitching prospect in exchange for a SS prospect of their own, a 3b on his last legs, and a guy that is Cincy's 4th or 5th OF. They have Stubbs, Bruce, Gomes, and Alonso already in the OF and have lots of depth there.

So I am trying to be creative, but trying to think it out from the other side's point of view. Again, I don't know how high Cincy is on Heisey, for example. They probably like him. But I don't know if they like him *THAT* much, since he's not a starter for them (he's on my roto team so I'm well aware of his situation). Maybe they *will* start him next year...who knows. I'm just going based on what has happened so far. Would Cincy make that deal? Maybe. Maybe not. All I'm suggesting is that they pursue something along those lines. The Sox need improvement, and Youkilis seems like pretty decent trade bait.

The Beachy thing was based on the thought that Atlanta has a bazillion great young arms and, if you have followed them this year, there were rumors flying around all season that they probably would at some point trade one or two of them to add offense. Again, I have Beachy on my roto team so I've paid pretty close attention to what the pitching situations is in Atlanta. Beachy wasn't a highly regarded prospect. He won the 5th spot in the rotation over Minor during spring training. Obviously Atlanta likes him, and he pitched very well this year. But do they like him more than Teheran or Delgado or Vizcaino? Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe they would think now is the perfect time to move him (like with what Tampa did with Garza). They could get something pretty good for him. Youks, btw, is something pretty good. Not saying they'd do it, but just that I'd kick the tires and try.

Why these ideas are ban-worthy or.....good grief.....revoke-my-membership-worthy I have no idea. It's silly.

You think the ideas I offered are pie in the sky. You don't explain why. Obviously you have the power and thus don't need to explain, but it sure would be helpful to me and maybe to others as well. Have you seen in the other threads both in the Sandbox and the main board some of the ideas people are throwing out there? Holy crap. You must be suspending and banning people left and right, some of those ideas are so ridiculous.

I don't see how, in any way, my ideas are not worth at least a conversation. If nothing else, they get a more general conversation going. SoSH is supposed to be FUN. We're not supposed to worry that everything we post is perfect. Standards are fine. I fail to see how what I've posted doesn't meet a reasonable standard.

[Los Calcetines]

To me it's all about pitching. I think the offense will be fine with either a Kalish/Reddick and a FA signing in LF (preferably a right-handed bat). I also advocate letting Papi walk and moving Youkilis into a DH role to keep him healthy.

If the Red Sox don't nail down a 3rd starter that can carry some solid innings, this team is going nowhere. The pitching was a complete fail for the last 5 weeks of the season. I would assume the 2012 roster looks something like this:

C: A combination of Lavarnway and Saltalamachia
1B: AGonz
2B: Pedroia
3B: Either sign Edwin Encarnacion or Aramis Ramirez provided their club options aren't picked up
SS: Scutaro - he's got the 6M club option and he played hard down the stretch. He can also be worked in with Lowrie and possibly even Iglesias if he develops his bat more
LF: Crawford
CF: Ellsbury
RF: I think it's going to Kalish or Reddick or a combination of both.
DH: Youkilis
IF: Lowrie, Aviles
OF: McDonald, Reddick

S1: Lester
S2: Beckett
S3: Buchholz
S4: Kevin Slowey or Edwin Jackson
S5: Lackey/Wakefield (as insurance)

BP: Papelbon (bring him back if possible), Linebrink (FA signing), Aceves, Bard as the cornerstone.

[Mike in CT]

Pretty much every single trade thread/idea assumes that Lackey is the guy they need to get out of here.

I don't question that, but I think people need to start thinking about the possibility of the Sox trading Beckett.

His welcome may have worn out, and after "taking responsibility" for his poor 2010 season, he backed it up by (supposedly) acting like a jackass and letting himself get out of shape.

I could see the Sox trading Lackey (subsidized) and Beckett and acquiring another (not too expensive) starter in the process, then signing CJ Wilson.

1. Lester
2. Wilson
3. Buchholz
4. Acquisition
5. Aceves and Friends

[plucy]

Pretty much every single trade thread/idea assumes that Lackey is the guy they need to get out of here.

I don't question that, but I think people need to start thinking about the possibility of the Sox trading Beckett.

His welcome may have worn out, and after "taking responsibility" for his poor 2010 season, he backed it up by (supposedly) acting like a jackass and letting himself get out of shape.

I could see the Sox trading Lackey (subsidized) and Beckett and acquiring another (not too expensive) starter in the process, then signing CJ Wilson.

1. Lester
2. Wilson
3. Buchholz
4. Acquisition
5. Aceves and Friends

After the events of the last few days and the rumors of cliques in the clubhouse, I am coming around to this idea. Beckett is still a good pitcher, but he has never developed the consistency to lead a rotation, either through injuries or a lack of conditioning. Trading starting pitching may be playing with fire, but the team may need to change the clubhouse dynamic.He possesses great trade value for a contender or near-contender, but his salary and injury issues will diminish the return.

One scenario I envisioned was a deal with LAD for Ethier. The Dodgers may be willing to spend next year, Ethier was unhappy with the way his injured knee was treated by the team(surgery will happen) and Kuroda may leave. Beckett would be a good #2 behind Kershaw, with Billingsley @3. Ethier could play right and DH. His defense career-wise hasn't been great but UZR smiled a little this year.

[jsouth12]

the rotation has to look like this
1. Jon Lester
2. Josh Beckett
3. Clay Buchholz
4. Alfredo Aceves

and then the fifth starter should either be a free agent signing in CJ Wilson (who of course would not be number five if he does get signed) or have a internal fight between Doubrount, Miller, and Lackey.
At catcher they should have lavarnway start with tek teaching him whether it be that varitek is still playing or is a coach or just goes to spring training with them. Shortstop should just be Scutaro and right field have an internal fight between Reddick, Kalish, and Aviles. I really dont want to see a superstar signed for right field aka beltran. and also give ellsbury a two year deal and if he still performs at this level give him what he deserves

Edited by jsouth12, 30 September 2011 - 05:50 PM.

[guido57]

I don't have much to add, just three simple suggestions:
1) Hold players responsible for actions on and off the field
2) Remind said players, some more often than others, to grow up
3) Just play friggin' baseball

[cptcarl]

Offseason 2011-2012:

1. Pedroia, Ellsbury, Gonzo, are fixed.

2. Pick up Scutaro's option, but let Iglesias play SS if he can hit a little (think Mark Belanger)

3. Youks at 3rd, but spending half the time at DH if Ortiz is not re-signed. (I would only trade Youks for a #2 Starter minimum)

4. I would re-sign Ortiz. A .950 OPS is not that easy to replace.

5. RF = homegrown Reddick or Kalish

6. Left Field: Vernon Wells (in trade for Crawford) -- need to dump Crawford's payroll shackles in time to sign Ells when his Arb yrs are up -- just admit Crawford was a big mistake and move on.

7. Salty as Catcher. (his .750 OPS was really pretty good for the price)

8. Bench: Aviles, Scutaro or Iglesias, Lavernaway (Tek walks), and a 4th outfielder (must be someone better than McDonald)

9. do NOT re-sign Paps.

10. Rotation: Beckett, Buch, Lester, Aceves or FA aquisition, Lackey (I guess)

11. Rebuild bullpen around Bard and Aceves (assuming neither is in rotation)

12. No Tim Bogar

13. Decline Wake's club option. Enough is enough. Every batter he walks scores on stolen bases and passed balls. His ERA this year of 5+ was actually much worse than it looks.