42 replies to this topic

[jon abbey]

Detroit has fairly quietly gone 30-9 since August 17. Admittedly that was almost entirely against the AL Central, but this is going to be a very tough series.

Pitching matchups:

Fri, 9/30: Verlander at Sabathia
Sat, 10/1: Fister at Nova
Mon, 10/3: Garcia at Scherzer
Tues, 10/4: Sabathia at Porcello (Sabathia on 3 days rest)
Thurs, 10/6: Verlander at Nova

All RHP for Detroit, will Girardi go with Posada over Montero as DH?

[priestvalon]

Detroit has fairly quietly gone 30-9 since August 17. Admittedly that was almost entirely against the AL Central, but this is going to be a very tough series.

*snip*
All RHP for Detroit, will Girardi go with Posada over Montero as DH?

With Montero getting banged up, I'm thinking a yes. Also Arod being injured isn't quite the same gut punch...

Texas was a good matchup based on regular season stuff... but we shall see how vs Detroit plays out. Obviously the first 2 games are incredibly massive.

[Meff Nelton]

Ironically, the Sabathia/Verlander matchup might be the best of the series for the Yankees.

Sabathia had a better FIP and xFIP for the season, and that's even before accounting for the fact that Sabathia pitched the whole year in the AL bEast. With the matchup in these games essentially being a push, the quality of the Yankees' offense and defense has to make them a favorite.

I don't know what the hell to expect of the Yankees' starting pitching the rest of the series, but they should definitely be favorites, despite the generally better quality of the Tigers' rotation after the ace matchup.

Of course, all of this means nothing. Hope they win.

[Meff Nelton]

Also, I'm fascinated to see what five innings of excellent and three innings of elite relief pitching in any given night does to Girardi's managing style (assuming that Rivera and Robertson can go three in any given night.) I hope Joe runs through this month with an intolerant leash on the non-Sabathias.

[EvilEmpire]

I'm still pissed that Detroit picked up Fister. I have an uncomfortable feeling that when everything is said and done he will be the key to Detroit's post-season.

[ThePrideofShiner]

I'm still pissed that Detroit picked up Fister. I have an uncomfortable feeling that when everything is said and done he will be the key to Detroit's post-season.

Yup.

I'm already having flashbacks to Kenny Rogers.

I'm not sure what to expect this series. I think the Tigers are the favorites because I don't trust the Yankees starters not named CC, but the Yankees bullpen is so good, it could be the difference.

ARod needs to be healthy and hitting for power, but that doesn't seem likely. I hope Girardi sticks with Montero, even against the righties. I think he could be key.

[terrynever]

I think the key for the Yankees is to not let Miguel Cabrera kill them. Don't pitch to the guy. He is, along with Albert Pujols, the best righthanded hitter in the game, a guy who won the batting title (.344, 30 HRs, 105 RBI, 1.033 OPS). Cabrera has a lot of prove this postseason after bailing out on his teammates in early October, 2009, when he went on a toot during the final weekend of the season, costing the Tigers a playoff berth. Cabrera went into rehab but was arrested in February, 2011, on suspicion of DUI and resisting arrest.

Hitting behind Cabrera should be Victor Martinez (.330, 103 RBI). Jhonny Peralta and Alex Avila also had strong offensive seasons. The Tigers have a deep offense that will test the Yankees' pitching staff.

At 37, Magglio Ordonez compiled a .634 OPS in 357 ABs. He'll get some ABs in this series.

Edited by terrynever, 29 September 2011 - 09:10 AM.

[jon abbey]

Girardi says that Posada is the DH against the right-handers (which is every game this series).

[terrynever]

Girardi says that Posada is the DH against the right-handers (which is every game this series).

Why not DH A-Rod two or three games, especially against the hard throwers, and have Chavez play 3B? A-Rod's knee was sore last night and he blamed the turf field in Tampa for that. I think it's a good precaution, and a smart play, to put Chavy out there at third base. He's still pretty much a Gold Glover at third base. And he hits enough, probably more than Posada will at DH.

But that's just me. Girardi's the manager. He knews a helluva lot more about his players than any of us do.

[jon abbey]

Posada had a .814 OPS batting lefty this year, plus of course a ton of postseason experience. He has good numbers against Verlander also, a .938 OPS in 21 career ABs, decidedly better than A-Rod or Chavez.

http://www.baseball-...x=1&submitter=1

Ramiro Pena is 3-5 against him, this year's Enrique Wilson?

[jon abbey]

CC against the current Tigers, Cabrera lights him up:

http://www.baseball-...x=1&submitter=1

[terrynever]

Posada had a .814 OPS batting lefty this year, plus of course a ton of postseason experience. He has good numbers against Verlander also, a .938 OPS in 21 career ABs, decidedly better than A-Rod or Chavez.

http://www.baseball-...x=1&submitter=1

Ramiro Pena is 3-5 against him, this year's Enrique Wilson?

Posada's career numbers against Verlander are great but what has he done lately, since his bat speed declined the past couple of seasons? Answer: 2-for-6 with a double and 2 RBI in 2011. .500 the past two seasons. Okay, I guess I'm on board with Jorge against Verlander.

Edited by terrynever, 29 September 2011 - 02:13 PM.

[jon abbey]

Has anyone seen much of Fister during this recent insane hot streak? Since August 20, he hasn't given up more than one ER in any game, his combined line is an absurd 55.2 30 6 4 4 52, 0.65 ERA and 0.61 WHIP (!). I thought he didn't have dominant stuff, how is he getting so many Ks?

[Enforcer]

Has anyone seen much of Fister during this recent insane hot streak? Since August 20, he hasn't given up more than one ER in any game, his combined line is an absurd 55.2 30 6 4 4 52, 0.65 ERA and 0.61 WHIP (!). I thought he didn't have dominant stuff, how is he getting so many Ks?

Yeah, he hasn't walked a batter in his last 20 IP.

He's almost exclusively about pinpoint command. He puts pitches exactly where he wants them. That's how he's getting the Ks. During this run, he hasn't thrown more than a handful of balls down the middle of the plate. He seems to paint all four corners with equal ease. Avila's glove seems to almost never move once he sets up.

Unlike most really tall pitchers, he refuses to submit to the "you have to throw super-hard because that's what super-tall pitchers are supposed to do" philosophy. He throws with good velocity, but his thing during this streak is control.

Edited by Enforcer, 29 September 2011 - 08:33 PM.

[Enforcer]

Overall, I am scared. It's the freakin' Yankees. They're really good. They're going to win the series.

Sorry, that's just my gut feeling on this. I hope I'm wrong. I think Detroit has a decent shot. I'm just worried that all it takes is one bad start for Verlander or the Yankees run into a fluky number of pitches in one of his outings and the series might be over. Best-of-five is so... I dunno, I guess random.

[Shaky]

Posada's career numbers against Verlander are great but what has he done lately, since his bat speed declined the past couple of seasons? Answer: 2-for-6 with a double and 2 RBI in 2011. .500 the past two seasons. Okay, I guess I'm on board with Jorge against Verlander.

Also, Posada's numbers batting left-handed this season aren't too far off his career numbers.

2011: .269/.348/.466/.814

Career: .267/.375/.471/.846

It's when batting right handed that he turns into a pumpkin.

2011: .092/.169/.108/.277

[jon abbey]

To me, the more I look at it, it's a terrible matchup for NY, even Sabathia hasn't been anything special against the top AL teams this year and their LHH lineup (Jones/Montero instead of Gardner/Posada) is a non-factor. This is where I think they'll finally miss Lee and/or Pettitte, but it's nice to have a puncher's chance at least.

One other question, Enforcer, I heard an interview with one of the DET beat guys today and while he couldn't stop raving about Fister and V-Mart down the stretch, he did say the team defense was questionable. What's the breakdown on that in recent weeks? Avila looked awesome early in the year, but I haven't seen much of DET since early in the season.

[Enforcer]

The team defense is pretty awful, actually. Avila is a strong catcher with a good arm. He's fine.

Elsewhere, it gets ugly. The team really has like 7 DHs who they have to stuff into positions. Going around the horn, Betemit is brutal at 3B. Inge is good, but he can't hit so he's a defensive replacement for the late innings. Peralta has looked good at SS. Not sure about his range, but he's not a big liability in my eyes. The Tigers don't have a 2B, so I guess we'll skip that position. Seriously, Santiago has platooned there with guys like Ryan Raburn and Carlos Guillen. Santiago is very good defensively but the other two are not major league defenders. Cabrera is an average 1B.

The outfield is laughable with the notable exception of Austin Jackson, who has to be one of the best defensive CFs in the league. The rest of the crew consists of guys like Delmon Young, Magglio Ordonez, Don Kelly... I'd rather just stop talking about the outfield, actually. Sometimes they stick Raburn out there. His error in Tuesday's game against the Tribe was typical. I wish I could find a link to the video.

So, yeah, the defense is a concern.

[priestvalon]

To me, the more I look at it, it's a terrible matchup for NY, even Sabathia hasn't been anything special against the top AL teams this year and their LHH lineup (Jones/Montero instead of Gardner/Posada) is a non-factor. This is where I think they'll finally miss Lee and/or Pettitte, but it's nice to have a puncher's chance at least.

One other question, Enforcer, I heard an interview with one of the DET beat guys today and while he couldn't stop raving about Fister and V-Mart down the stretch, he did say the team defense was questionable. What's the breakdown on that in recent weeks? Avila looked awesome early in the year, but I haven't seen much of DET since early in the season.

Certainly compared to the perfect playoff team, NY has more holes than a sieve, like a completely RH bullpen, effectively. The question will be if Verlander just puts Yankee bats to sleep in game 1. He has been effective, but so much moreso against the Central and interleague, vs the Yanks, who have had basically as good an outcome against him as basically anyone.

CC is a fairly consistent guy, but he's very susceptible to too much rest... I wonder if Girardi has handled this last week right. You should see CC at least put you in a position to have the Yankees win in a bullpen vs bullpen situation. If he self-immolates, then the postseason is irrelevant to NY, anyway. Something else to note is that BOTH pitchers have thrown an awful lot of pitches so far, this season. Not saying either has been overworked, but Verlander leads MLB with 251 IP, and CC has 237.

I wasn't aware of Detroit's questionable defense til Enforcer pointed it out, but it seems like iffy defense is an absolute killer every year in the post-season. NY has certainly improved in this regard vs the classic power over defense approach.

I'm not confident about NY's chances. I think Detroit is a clearly dangerous opponent, but I don't see an odds-on favorite, either. I've heard intelligent press predictions either way.

[Saby]

Itll be interesting to see how Girardi uses Mo. Not sure there'll be many two-innings with his age and Robertson's emergence.

[nycdoc999]

Itll be interesting to see how Girardi uses Mo. Not sure there'll be many two-innings with his age and Robertson's emergence.

I don't think they'll need Rivera for 2 innings at a time unless it's extras....

The bigger issue is whether the Yankees will actually be able to GET a lead into the late innings!

=)

[InsideTheParker]

Are Yankees fans encouraged by Verlander's no-decision against the Orioles in his last start, giving up 5 earned runs in 7 IP? (tsn)
(edit for typing error)

Edited by InsideTheParker, 30 September 2011 - 02:02 PM.

[chris719]

Not really, but it's better than having him come in as hot as Fister is.

[SemperFidelisSox]

Leyland probably could have done a better job managing Verlanders work load in September once they had the division in hand, especially when he hit his career high in innings two starts ago. 120 pitches in his last?

[Enforcer]

We can argue whether clutch hitting and choking at the plate exist, but would anyone deny that the Tigers looked like they had a case of the big-game shakes in the field in the first inning?

[jon abbey]

We can argue whether clutch hitting and choking at the plate exist, but would anyone deny that the Tigers looked like they had a case of the big-game shakes in the field in the first inning?

I'd defer to you who watches them every game, but yeah, it certainly looked like that to me. Some hard baserunning by Jeter and Granderson also, but a gift run from the D certainly...

[brs3]

It's interesting that Sabathia continues his postseason woes.

Looking at his splits, the MFY haven't tried very hard to limit his innings during the year. It seems like recently he has peaked in July, and then started a slow decline, where he is tired by October. I've thought that all this guy needed for October success was smart handling, IP-wise. Is it that, or is he just a poor October performer?


edit: It seems like his 2009 playoffs is an aberration rather than the norm.

Edited by brs3, 04 October 2011 - 01:24 PM.

[jon abbey]

Not that it affected Verlander seemingly, but he was going on two days rest, so hard to take much from it IMO. He looked great for two innings in game 1 before the rain out, the best he's looked in months.

[melonbag]

I thought CC looked shaky due to his unusual situation of pitching on Friday and then again on Monday.

I gave him the benefit of the doubt. If the Yanks somehow come back to beat Detroit, we'll see how CC does against Texas on game 1.

[Toe Nash]

It's interesting that Sabathia continues his postseason woes.

Looking at his splits, the MFY haven't tried very hard to limit his innings during the year. It seems like recently he has peaked in July, and then started a slow decline, where he is tired by October. I've thought that all this guy needed for October success was smart handling, IP-wise. Is it that, or is he just a poor October performer?


edit: It seems like his 2009 playoffs is an aberration rather than the norm.

In 2008 he essentially pitched the Brewers into the postseason, going on three days' rest his last three starts as they chased a playoff spot. He ran out of gas in the Division Series but the previous three weeks was basically the postseason for them.

He hasn't usually been his normal self in the postseason, but the '08 stretch run has to be taken into account when evaluating that.

[JimD]

It's hard not to think that the Tigers were screwed once they lost the ability to have Verlander pitch two games in this series. I don't see the Yankees losing tomorrow night.

[abty]

Everybody who was objective knew the rain out cost the Tigers the series. They also may learn from the mistake of "Trading anybody with potential to the Yankees". No semi competitive team should ever do that again. Who the hell thought Granderson would be hitting more homers than Mike PIazza?

[jon abbey]

Dunno, the second game in NY being moved to the afternoon helped them, and CC looked better than Verlander early on in game 1.

On a different subject, I'll defer to Tigers fans here, but since Avila looks awful at the plate, wouldn't it at least be worth considering to play V-Mart at C tomorrow and DH Ordonez? That makes the D even worse, but still.

[jon abbey]

Ah, Leyland says he's starting Kelly at 3B, so presumably Ordonez in RF. That makes more sense, Magglio's defensive issues should be minimized by the small RF in the Bronx.

[No Guru No Method]

In 2008 he essentially pitched the Brewers into the postseason, going on three days' rest his last three starts as they chased a playoff spot. He ran out of gas in the Division Series but the previous three weeks was basically the postseason for them.

He hasn't usually been his normal self in the postseason, but the '08 stretch run has to be taken into account when evaluating that.

His normal self ? Throw out 2008 if you want to but at the same time lets dismiss the notion that this tub of goo is any good in the playoffs. His post-season WHIP is 1.6.

[cromulence]

His normal self ? Throw out 2008 if you want to but at the same time lets dismiss the notion that this tub of goo is any good in the playoffs. His post-season WHIP is 1.6.

The idea that he can't pitch in the playoffs is idiotic. He carried the Yankees in 2009. He wasn't good the other day, but he was on weird rest and he looked awesome before the rain came. SSS WHIP though...he's not a playoff pitcher.

Edited by cromulence, 06 October 2011 - 05:58 PM.

[No Guru No Method]

The idea that he can't pitch in the playoffs is idiotic. He carried the Yankees in 2009. He wasn't good the other day, but he was on weird rest and he looked awesome before the rain came. SSS WHIP though...he's not a playoff pitcher.

Jesus Christ. Look at his post-season track record. It's all there. Apart from 2009 it's not pretty. Even last year he got pounded.

[Enforcer]

That was the most stressful playoff series in memory. I'm wired. Grateful the Tigers won but it felt like smoke and mirrors. The Yanks worked the pitch counts and put a ton of stress on Detroit's staff while the Tigers swung at first pitches and let the Yankees pitchers off the hook.

Condolences to the Yankees fans.

As a Tigers fan, this is a lot of fun. I had very little hope of the team advancing past this round. I said during the season that the AL Central title was what I wanted most and that anything else would be gravy. But the gravy tastes good.

[jon abbey]

Congrats, dude!

[MentalDisabldLst]

Yeah, honestly I think the Tigers may find the Rangers an even easier opponent than they did the Yankees. Fister looked great in both games. The bullpen's been solid. If Verlander has two good starts in games 3 and 7 (or could he do 2/6?), there's no reason to think you couldn't take the pennant.

[jon abbey]

Verlander will start game 1 on full rest, not sure who will get game 2 with Fister and Scherzer both going tonight.

[Fratboy]

Scherzer would be the more likely candidate I think, since he worked less and it may have been his throwing day? I think you see Fister for Game 3.

[MentalDisabldLst]

Fun fact: The Yankees outscored the Tigers 28-17 in the series.