85 replies to this topic

[SoxScout]

He's pitched like a very mediocre pitcher in his last three postseason starts AND in each of the two huge games against Tampa in the last week when the team desperately needed a win. Better?

5.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

7.0 IP, 3 ER, 0 BB, 8 K

6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 BB, 5 K

I just don't see how the 7 IP game was anything less than very good. His last one wasn't setting the world on fire, but don't you take 6 IP and 3 ER in the playoffs anytime you're offered it?

Not to mention his other 3 starts were 19.2, 0 ER. He might have got the L in his last 3, but they weren't disasters that should have been automatic team losses.

[smastroyin]

5.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

7.0 IP, 3 ER, 0 BB, 8 K

6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 BB, 5 K

I just don't see how the 7 IP game was anything less than very good. His last one wasn't setting the world on fire, but don't you take 6 IP and 3 ER in the playoffs anytime you're offered it?

Not to mention his other 3 starts were 19.2, 0 ER. He might have got the L in his last 3, but they weren't disasters that should have been automatic team losses.

I think people think poorly of the game 7 loss because of the fact that he couldn't get Willy Aybar out.

[kieckeredinthehead]

He gets judged by his performances when his team needed him to win a big game. Those all go into the larger body of work to take a look at his pitching. He's come up short in big games where the team needed him to win. What's nonsense is ignoring how badly he's pitched against Tampa this week in a crucially tight race where a badly slumping team needed an ace performance from him.

You're overestimating how good other "elite" pitchers are in the postseason. Lee was terrible in the World Series when the Rangers needed him. Lincecum and Cain were obviously nails last postseason, but Lincecum has repeatedly failed this year when the Giants needed a win, and Cain is a BABIP freak. Who are the "elite" pitchers you are comparing Lester to? If anything, Lester's last 3 postseason starts look like an average start for an elite pitcher. The real issue is that his first three postseason starts were great, but not of the complete game shutout variety you'd expect form an elite pitcher. I'll say it slightly differently: Lester's mediocre has been as good as an elite pitcher's mediocre. However, recently his best has not been as good as an elite pitcher's best.

[Manramsclan]

If I were a sociologist studying the Sox nation, I would assume that we all thought that Lester and Buchholz were going to be Pedro and Curt going forward. They haven't been. In the post-steroid era, not being at that level seems to be just a step below elite to me.

This is a dubious metric to evaluate them since truly we traded for Pedro as he was becoming PEDRO, and Schilling after he became SCHILLING.
Lester and Buchholz are in that process of becoming when they are good-to-great pitchers capable of dominance but without the mastery that comes with experience. The stuff in both of their cases is there, but they haven't put it all together. Either way, asking them to be comparable to two of the greatest pitchers of all time at their peak is crazy.

I don't think Lester is elite for one reason and one reason only: his walk rate. He is the only pitcher mentioned with a BB/9 over 3, and while Felix is close at 2.8, Felix is two years younger and has done it for longer having pitched over 400 more innings. Felix's walk rate over his entire career is a tick less at 2.7 BB/9 and has a much lower ERA for his career and for the time period shown in this thread. That walk rate is what is contributing to his WHIP which is the only one on that list in the 1.2's.

For me the elite pitchers in the AL are Sabathia, Felix Hernandez and Verlander.Before this year, I think Verlander was in a lower tier with others on this list.

Framing it in the context of the beginning of my post, this year VErlander has been unbelievable and his process of becoming VERLANDER is over. He can still throw 100 but he can also pitch with unbelievable control. He has lept forward into the elite tier.He can still throw 100 but he can also pitch with unbelievable control.

Lester and others are right there, but even then I think that Lester is last in line behind Weaver and Greinke right now.

If he lowers his walk rate to their levels, he could leap past them. Really, Lester's control has been an issue all throughout his development. He has made enough progress to be an All-Star, but not enough in my opinion to be considered an elite pitcher.

[Paul M]

Top 5 or merely Top 10, either way it is top 5% of all starters. What is missing is the Cy Young, 20 wins, etc. but I think it is somewhat semantics here. Only concern I have is he's not getting better with his command as he matured since the BB rate has gone back to closer to 4 than 2.5 his last two years.

[Foulkey Reese]

Elite or not, Lester has played major part in this months collapse. You have to wonder about an injury at this point.

[86spike]

Elite or not, Lester has played major part in this months collapse. You have to wonder about an injury at this point.

Yeah, I have a feeling that we're going to learn in a couple of weeks that the only healthy starters on this team in September have been Wakefield, Miller and Weiland.

Becket, Lester, Bedard, Lackey, Buchholz, Matsuzaka... all less than 100%

Our healthy staff includes a 65 year old gimmick pitch pitcher, a draft bust and a middling prospect asked to jump in front of a train.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

There's zero evidence Lester is hurt. He's simply participating in the team-wide choke. Last three starts have been abysmal. He's coming up small like everyone else.

I think the answer to the thread question has been answered: No.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

There's zero evidence Lester is hurt.

Except for the sudden drop in effectiveness and the sudden loss of command. I don't think it's irrational to wonder if there's an injury there. No one is saying his elbow is shredded, but a strained lat or hammy would be enough.

Also, saying "no" to this question based on his September is horseshit. Saying "no" to this question based on his 2011 is questionable. He's been excellent for three years running up to this year, and all of his contemporaries have had down years in that stretch.

If he comes out next year without returning to form, the question becomes more valid. But for now, it's not really grounded in anything but short term thinking.

[Dogman2]

Lester today, versus Lester two months ago:

These are similar to Dice, Buch and Bedards charts when they were obviously hurt. Lester may have a dead arm but he certainly isn't 100%.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

His walk rate as whole is up this season. There's no evidence to support that he's sucked these last three starts because he's hurt. That strikes me as wishcasting because no one wants to believe the likable Lester is a choker like the rest of the team. He might be worn down, but I highly doubt he's pitching through an injury. They wouldn't let him do so since they see him as such a big part of the team going forward.

I'm sorry, we're going to part ways here: he's not an elite pitcher. When given the chance to give the team a boost in the most dire of circumstances he's failed three straight times. Big game performances count too and to ignore that he's failed miserably when the team's needed him most is ignoring the full picture. He's come up small in the biggest games of the year.

[deconstruction]

Bumped after a horrible start? Is this turning into a "Jon Lester Performance Thread"?

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Bumped after a horrible start? Is this turning into a "Jon Lester Performance Thread"?

3 horrible starts in a row in the midst of a team wide collapse.

[Paul M]

Is he elite the last month or even this year? No, but I'm still waiting for a list of 10 AL pitchers I'd rather have. That said, his command is reverting back to his rookie year and it has been a devastating regression which is killing this team. SJH, can't argue he's not pitching like an elite starter when he's been called upon in big games the last few years but I think he's also the best chance we have to do damage in the playoffs. The inability to throw strikes is one of the most crushing ways a pitcher can let his team down and you knew after that first rally NY was going to send him to the showers by the 5th inning. Maybe something is lingering that is subtle but caused him to his control. So, even if it is not an actual injury something is not quite right unless we are to believe he can revert back to the rookie who had trouble throwing strikes.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

His walk rate as whole is up this season. There's no evidence to support that he's sucked these last three starts because he's hurt. That strikes me as wishcasting because no one wants to believe the likable Lester is a choker like the rest of the team. He might be worn down, but I highly doubt he's pitching through an injury. They wouldn't let him do so since they see him as such a big part of the team going forward.

I'm sorry, we're going to part ways here: he's not an elite pitcher. When given the chance to give the team a boost in the most dire of circumstances he's failed three straight times. Big game performances count too and to ignore that he's failed miserably when the team's needed him most is ignoring the full picture. He's come up small in the biggest games of the year.

Again, he's had a very sudden drop in effectiveness and a sudden loss of command. They could absolutely be indications of a minor injury. Asserting there is no evidence immediately after someone provides you with some evidence does not make that evidence disappear. It's not conclusive, and it's not a blaring warning sign, but it's certainly possible and would certainly go a long way toward explaining his inability to remain effective into September.

And since when is looking at three starts more of a "full picture" than looking at 4 years worth of starts?

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Again, he's had a very sudden drop in effectiveness and a sudden loss of command. They could absolutely be indications of a minor injury. Asserting there is no evidence immediately after someone provides you with some evidence does not make that evidence disappear. It's not conclusive, and it's not a blaring warning sign, but it's certainly possible and would certainly go a long way toward explaining his inability to remain effective into September.

And since when is looking at three starts more of a "full picture" than looking at 4 years worth of starts?

Firstly looking at these CRUCIAL starts should be an important factor in analysis. Ignoring the situation in which Lester made those starts, where the team badly needed him to pitch well and he failed each time, is short-sighted.

Is his velocity down recently? That's an honest question.

Given that they shelved Bedard for an extra length of time with the lat injury, I really don't see the team allowing Lester to pitch through a hammy/muscle injury down the stretch assuming they know about it. They would be worried about an arm injury and rightly so. That's why I doubt he's hurt.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Firstly looking at these CRUCIAL starts should be an important factor in analysis. Ignoring the situation in which Lester made those starts, where the team badly needed him to pitch well and he failed each time, is short-sighted.

No one is discounting this month. We're just not letting it impact the larger picture more than it should. We're looking at a 4 year sample of starts and that 4 year sample points to him being one of the ten best pitchers in all of baseball. If that isn't elite, elite doesn't exist.

Is his velocity down recently? That's an honest question.

No, Sprowl was discussing that in the game thread tonight and it seems his velocity hasn't done anything alarming yet. It might not. But command is often the first thing to go when a pitcher is hurt. Again, I don't think there's anything serious wrong with him, but a sore muscle is all it takes to mess up his mechanics.

Given that they shelved Bedard for an extra length of time with the lat injury, I really don't see the team allowing Lester to pitch through a hammy/muscle injury down the stretch assuming they know about it. They would be worried about an arm injury and rightly so. That's why I doubt he's hurt.

It's possible he's toughing it out thinking that it's his responsibility to right the ship. It's possible that the team knows and has decided that unlike Bedard, it's something he can pitch through and they simply don't have anyone to replace him with.

Again, I'm not saying he's definitely hurt, but there is certainly evidence that might point to an injury of some kind.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Boy, Snod, if you're right that the team is letting him pitch through an injury out of desperation then I gotta say that would be awfully irresponsible of them. Pitching through a muscle pull could lead to an elbow injury, a situation that no one wants.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Boy, Snod, if you're right that the team is letting him pitch through an injury out of desperation then I gotta say that would be awfully irresponsible of them. Pitching through a muscle pull could lead to an elbow injury, a situation that no one wants.

It depends on what the injury is. They let guys pitch through bumps and bruises all the time. If the medical staff determines it's not something that is likely to lead to a more serious injury, they really wouldn't have a choice but to start him right now. They had a big, fat, TBD penciled in for Sunday's start a couple of days ago. That's how strapped they've been for starters.

It's entirely possible he's not hurt and simply had his mechanics slip, or he's just having a down year, or he pushed too hard in July and August and hit a wall. I'm just not discounting an injury as another possibility here.

[OCD SS]

His walk rate as whole is up this season.

Not according to fangraphs. His bb/9 is 3.44, down from 3.59 last year, dropping to 9.2% from 9.6% Similarly his BABIP is down this year as well. The difference this year is in his K rate, which has dropped, and his HR allowed rate, which is up. All of this has lead to a drop in his LOB%. I leave it to others to decide if his overall peripherals point to variance or regression.

[Dogman2]

Is his velocity down recently? That's an honest question.

Did you look at the charts I posted?

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Did you look at the charts I posted?

No, and I should have. Just got home and didn't look around. My bad.

[Dogman2]

No, and I should have. Just got home and didn't look around. My bad.

No worries, I figured you just missed them. I think he has a dead arm based on those charts and not an injury. The Rays players comments seem to back that up.

[Jack Sox]

No worries, I figured you just missed them. I think he has a dead arm based on those charts and not an injury. The Rays players comments seem to back that up.

If it a case of dead arm - and I have to believe it is something of that nature based on the way the ball has been coming out of his hand - then it would certainly explain a lot.

This whole Lester isn't elite is a bit of a false narrative. Even with this recent slide, Jon Lester has still been a top ten pitcher in the AL this season based on bWAR. I realize bWAR is not an end all and be all stat but I'll certainly take it over emotional anecdotal claims that he's not an elite pitcher.

That said, he's picked a horrible time to be so ineffective. Whether that blame should fully go on him is something that none of us have enough information on. But the assertion that the Red Sox would not let him pitch if he did have some type of ailment is false. Players, especially players with a great deal of pride (something that personifies Jon Lester, IMO), will push themselves to their physical limits if it's what's best for the team. With the state of the current rotation, is it really hard to believe that that's what we've been witnessing with Lester this month?

[joyofsox]

Lester:

"I'm not tired. I'm not hurt. There's nothing wrong with me. I wouldn't go out there if there was something wrong with me. It's nothing physically."

[So what is wrong?]

"I stink. If I had the answer, it wouldn't happen. You go 32-0 every year if you had the answer of why you stink sometimes. It just happens. It's part of baseball. Teams go through stretches like this ... Pitchers go through stretches like I'm doing. It's the name of the game. Other times, you throw the ball right down the middle and it gets popped up. That's baseball. You make a pitch on the black, and it gets hit 400 feet. ... It's not a good time to have this stretch."

http://mlb.mlb.com/m...e=wrap&c_id=bos
http://www.boston.co...lester_has.html

[Clears Cleaver]

His mechanics out of the stretch look out of whack. He is flying open early which would impact his release point and ability to get on top of his cutter and breaking pitches

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

His mechanics out of the stretch look out of whack. He is flying open early which would impact his release point and ability to get on top of his cutter and breaking pitches

Can anyone check to see if the same was true in his two games against Tampa as well?

If he's out of whack and has been for a few weeks now, and it hasn't been fixed, to me that's another strike against the pitching coach. But it's possible he just had nothing in those two games against Tampa.

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Is he elite the last month or even this year? No, but I'm still waiting for a list of 10 AL pitchers I'd rather have.

This whole Lester isn't elite is a bit of a false narrative. Even with this recent slide, Jon Lester has still been a top ten pitcher in the AL this season based on bWAR.

I'm curious...why is this the deciding factor on a pitcher being elite? And I'm really curious...maybe it's a Bill James thing, I don't fucking know.

But it seems a little unfair to me. There's 14 teams in the AL, so as long as hes better then four other #1's, he's elite? I think if you expanded that list to the NL, you'd be able to put a list together.

Regardless, I don't think being elite is based on how many other pitchers and teams there are. I think it's fair to say that Jon Lester is a very good pitcher. Maybe he's elite, but he definitely isn't elite this year.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Well, he's gonna get his chance to participate in the narrative tomorrow. On 3 days' rest.

[LesterFan]

Well, he's gonna get his chance to participate in the narrative tomorrow. On 3 days' rest.

He only threw 55 pitches in his last start. I'm not worried at all.

[Sprowl]

He only threw 55 pitches in his last start. I'm not worried at all.

Not only is he not overworked, he's keenly aware that he blew it last time around because he threw bad pitches, not because he was injured. One letters-high fastball that Jeter hit out of the park made the difference. The two plays before that should have been converted to outs, but Aviles and Crawford did not hold up their part of the bargain. Based on recent performance, Lester is a better bet to start a must-win game than any other Red Sox pitcher.




Except Alfred the Great, who will probably relieve Lester.

[Kull]

Except Alfred the Great, who will probably relieve Lester.

A little known fact. Henry VI, an English King who was pretty much a failure in every way, spent a good part of his reign trying (unsuccessfully of course) to get Alfred the Great canonized as a saint. In that one respect, he was far ahead of his time.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Assuming that's it for him after 6, that's one hell of a gutsy effort by Lester tonight. Clearly running on fumes at the end, but he gave the Sox what they needed: a quality start.

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

Assuming that's it for him after 6, that's one hell of a gutsy effort by Lester tonight. Clearly running on fumes at the end, but he gave the Sox what they needed: a quality start.

Yes, this was a very impressive display.

[The Allented Mr Ripley]

I rarely see emotion from him under any circumstances, but he was barking fiercely at himself as he headed toward the dugout after striking out Jones. I'm sure he was pissed about giving up the walks, but as SJH and Yammer noted, it was a ballsy performance. Judging by how unusually demonstrative he was, he had mentally cranked himself up for the moment.

Edited by The Allented Mr Ripley, 28 September 2011 - 08:39 PM.

[CoRP]

I rarely see emotion from him under any circumstances, but he was barking fiercely at himself as he headed toward the dugout after striking out Jones. I'm sure he was pissed about giving up the walks, but as SJH and Yammer noted, it was a ballsy performance. Judging by how unusually demonstrative he was, he had mentally cranked himself up for the moment.

I look forward to him winning the game that keeps the Sox from being swept in the ALDS.