85 replies to this topic

[deconstruction]

This question is prompted by some venting in the game thread tonight. SJH, reasonably, asserted that Lester is NOT an "elite" pitcher because he hasn't stepped up when the team has needed him most. Recently, others have argued that he's not a "top tier pitcher" because he doesn't go as deep into games as Verlander, Sabathia, Weaver, and of course Halladay, Lee, and Felix.

So what makes a pitcher "elite" and does Lester fit into that category?

Of course, going as deep into games as the aforementioned guys do isn't sufficient for being an elite pitcher, but is it necessary? Is having a BB% lower than league average necessary? Is perennially reaching 210, or 220, or 230 innings necessary? What are the necessary qualities of an elite pitcher?

Here's how he stacks up against the the best of the last four years in the AL (with some NL years sprinkled in there for Lee, Grienke, and Sabathia):

Elite pitchers in the AL, 2008-2011: Lester compared to his peers

	IP	IP/start	ERA	ERA+	WHIP	OPS against	bWAR	fWAR	WPA	SO/9	BB/9
Sabathia*	238	7.0	3.06	143	1.17	.649	23	26.1	15.0	8.2	2.5
Hernandez	228	7.0	2.84	144	1.18	.636	21.4	22.0	9.5	8.3	2.8
Verlander	225	6.8	3.45	124	1.16	.640	18.9	24.7	9.9	8.9	2.7
Lee*	222	7.2	2.83	147	1.10	.637	23.3	27.4	14.5	7.7	1.4
Weaver	208	6.5	3.32	125	1.15	.663	19.3	18.8	10.0	8.1	2.5
Grienke*	201	6.5	3.36	126	1.19	.680	16.9	23.2	9.6	8.8	2.2
Lester	199	6.4	3.24	138	1.23	.663	21.2	20.5	10.4	8.7	3.1

There's no question than Lester has been a top-seven pitcher in the AL over the last four years. Ostensibly, this makes him "top tier" and "elite," but is he in the same class as guys like Verlander, Sabathia, and Felix? Are these the only "elite" pitchers in the AL?

He's pitched the least number of innings, doesn't go as deep, and has a higher WHIP and BB/9 than the rest (although Felix isn't far behind in the last category). Obviously, his higher BB rate is likely the reason for his lower IP/start. His OPS against isn't as low as those of Lee, Felix, Verlander, and Sabathia. His bWAR compares favorably to the rest, but his fWAR takes a hit because of his higher BB%. Same with his OPS against.

In terms of preventing runs, though, Lester is right up there with Sabathia, Verlander, and Felix. CC and Lee are a step above the rest in terms of pitching better in close games, but Lester has been better than Felix and Verlander in this regard.

Obviously, being "elite" is a context-dependent classification. In order to be considered elite, a pitcher needs to be superior to all but a few of his peers, but he does NOT need to meet a set of ideal standards set by fans. One can make the argument that Lester is kept of out the elite status of Sabathia, Felix, and Verlander (especially this year) because of his BB rate, which has increased in 2010 and 2011. Perhaps your criteria for "elite-ness" depends more on control and its attendant consequences than results. It's egregious to state that Lester hasn't been a top-five pitcher in the AL over the last four years--and thus, a top-tier pitcher--but I've seen the argument that he isn't in the same league as the "elite" pitchers in the league.

So, in your view, is Lester an elite pitcher?

[bosockboy]

Great post and thread.

My vote is no, because I define elite as truly elite. A confidence level that you're gonna win when that guy hits the mound, particularly in big games. Pedro and Schilling were elite. Beckett as we know is elite on his peaks, but his valleys are what ruin his status as an elite pitcher.

Lester is very good, and a 1A starter. He seems to get flustered when the balls and strikes don't go his way, and has trouble adjusting on the fly.

[drbretto]

I guess I get what you're trying to say in that he certainly hasn't been at Verlander's level this season, but doesn't being one of the top ten (or 7) best pitchers in all of major league baseball sort of automatically put him in elite status? Elite pitcher having a sub-awesome year. I'll still have him as my pre-season Cy Young prediction next year as I have the last 4.

[SoxScout]

FIP-, which park and league adjusted over the last 4 years of the AL guys. Not using xFIP because want to look at what actually happened.

There was a time when Verlander spazzed, and it wasn't long ago Weaver was more like his brother than an ace. I think multiple years of being >20% better than league average is a good place to start, and if you have an off year, so be it.

CC had a bump last year but rocketed back into form. That being said, Lester's drop off is pretty frightening and will be interesting to see what happens next year. The walks (2.8, 2.8, 3.6, 3.5 ) and SwgStk% trend of 11%, 10%, and to 9% this year is... yikes.

BTW, 99-03 Pedro was 30 46 36 51 49.

[Rasputin]

I guess I get what you're trying to say in that he certainly hasn't been at Verlander's level this season, but doesn't being one of the top ten (or 7) best pitchers in all of major league baseball sort of automatically put him in elite status? Elite pitcher having a sub-awesome year. I'll still have him as my pre-season Cy Young prediction next year as I have the last 4.

Yeah this.

Elite doesn't mean perfect. It means one of the best. There are 150 starting pitcher jobs in the majors and probably over 200 pitchers getting more than a spot start in any given season. If you're in the top 3%-5% of any group of people that is comprised of the top tiny percentage of people at what they do in the world then hell yes, you're an elite pitcher.

The better question is whether Josh Beckett is an elite pitcher.

[Mystic Merlin]

My vote is no, because I define elite as truly elite.

This makes absolutely no sense.

What is the difference between 'elite' and 'truly elite', especially when the other pitchers on that list have had 'valleys' as well. And I have no clue how to respond to your other assertions.

[Rasputin]

This makes absolutely no sense.

What is the difference between 'elite' and 'truly elite', especially when the other pitchers on that list have had 'valleys' as well. And I have no clue how to respond to your other assertions.

Call it piffle because that's what it is.

[deconstruction]

FIP-, which park and league adjusted over the last 4 years of the AL guys. Not using xFIP because want to look at what actually happened.

There was a time when Verlander spazzed, and it wasn't long ago Weaver was more like his brother than an ace. I think multiple years of being >20% better than league average is a good place to start, and if you have an off year, so be it.

CC had a bump last year but rocketed back into form. That being said, Lester's drop off is pretty frightening and will be interesting to see what happens next year. The walks (2.8, 2.8, 3.6, 3.5 ) and SwgStk% trend of 11%, 10%, and to 9% this year is... yikes.

BTW, 99-03 Pedro was 30 46 36 51 49.

I share your concern about his declining SwStr%, and this year he's had much worse results on his curve than in the previous years, and he's getting far fewer swinging strikes with it. Same with the sinker but I'm wary of pFX classification errors.



Plus, as the addition of Pedro to your chart illustrates, of course we can't use his dominance as a standard for elite status over the last five years, as there's no one who has come close to being 3-4 standard deviations better than league average or a clear step above the next best pitcher in the league. When there's no one like him to create a "truly" elite status, all we have are CC and Verlander, and I think Lester's 08-11 keeps up with theirs. I say he's elite.

Edited by deconstruction, 18 September 2011 - 12:41 AM.

[bob burda]

Lester is with the guys mentioned above as top pitchers - this has not been his greatest season.

The voices in the game thread were pointing to his less than stellar post-season record recently, and perhaps his performance in these recent crucial games vs. Tampa. It is similar to the critique that Bill James leveled at Don Drysdale in his book on the HoF. James was willing to say Drysdale should only be considered elite class if he was also money in big games, in large part because Drysdale's overall record was on the fringe of elite quality. James did a study that showed Drysdale was mediocre to lousy in big games and concluded that there was reason to think Drysdale was not a legit HoF'er.

You could level the same critique at Lester to say his problems in big games make him "not elite." But I think Lester's record is strong enough that his big game issues don't push him out of the company of elite pitchers. If you look back at that James study on Drysdale you'd see that Drysdale was often terrible in big games - many times taking his team out of the game early. My recollection is that most of Lester's big game "failures" do not rise to this level. Lester was not great today, but he wasn't terrible either. If the Sox had scored 7 runs today, we could be talking instead about how Lester "gutted it out without his best stuff." Most of his playoff performances have been along lines like today. I would concede that he was terrible in the recent game in Tampa, and in Game 3 of the 2008 ALCS.

Whoever criticized him for the way he lets stuff get to him has it right - that implosion in SEA last year after losing the perfect game was a case in point. I think he is susceptible to losses of concentration when there are bad breaks, including umps he perceives as squeezing him. He deals with this stuff better than somebody like Oil Can Boyd did, but it's a part of his game that needs some work.

[TFisNEXT]

No.

I think he is in the tier just below elite. This year has caused that IMHO after a bit of shakiness last year. I know its just one season and a bit of 2010 mixed in, but if you want to be elite, then you don't have years like this...you have months like this and then drown them out with dominant periods.

Lester is really good, but if he wants to be considered "elite", then he has to cut the walks down again for a couple seasons with other dominant peripherals.

I think elite has to be reserved for the guys at the absolute highest level. Lester just isn't quite there right now. He might have been on that line after 2009.

Edited by TFisNEXT, 18 September 2011 - 12:13 AM.

[drbretto]

No.

I think he is in the tier just below elite. This year has caused that IMHO after a bit of shakiness last year. I know its just one season and a bit of 2010 mixed in, but if you want to be elite, then you don't have years like this...you have months like this and then drown them out with dominant periods.

Lester is really good, but if he wants to be considered "elite", then he has to cut the walks down again for a couple seasons with other dominant peripherals.

I think elite has to be reserved for the guys at the absolute highest level. Lester just isn't quite there right now. He might have been on that line after 2009.

Did you see SoxScout's table?

[TFisNEXT]

Did you see SoxScout's table?

I did. How does that change anything I said?

[drbretto]

I did. How does that change anything I said?

They all had years like this. Everyone has years like this. Pedro had years like this.

Edited by drbretto, 18 September 2011 - 12:47 AM.

[TFisNEXT]

They all had years like this. Everyone has years like this. Pedro had years like this.

I specifically said because Lester's struggles are recent, that I would not place him there. If this was after 2009 or even this time in 2010, I would.

His struggles this year are pretty high...that 88 sticks out for recent years. I do think he can be an elite pitcher over the next 3 years, but he hasn't done it this year and the BB/9 trends are concerning. Whether we want to rate on what pitchers "should be" or what they are might be the debate here. Lester at this moment simply is not an elite pitcher...can he become one again? Absolutely. Hopefully that time starts now and into the playoffs should we get there.

[No Guru No Method]

[quote name='deconstruction' timestamp='1316315671' post='3741233']
This question is prompted by some venting in the game thread tonight. SJH, reasonably, asserted that Lester is NOT an "elite" pitcher because he hasn't stepped up when the team has needed him most.

The postseason says hello.

[drbretto]

I specifically said because Lester's struggles are recent, that I would not place him there. If this was after 2009 or even this time in 2010, I would.

His struggles this year are pretty high...that 88 sticks out for recent years. I do think he can be an elite pitcher over the next 3 years, but he hasn't done it this year and the BB/9 trends are concerning. Whether we want to rate on what pitchers "should be" or what they are might be the debate here. Lester at this moment simply is not an elite pitcher...can he become one again? Absolutely. Hopefully that time starts now and into the playoffs should we get there.

I don't disagree with those points, just the line I bolded. I'm saying that one bad mediocre year doesn't exclude him from the list. If he throws up 3 or 4 more years like this, then I completely agree. But taken just the last 4 years, even including this one, he's in the same conversation as the rest of the pitchers mentioned in this thread, at least in my opinion.

Edited by drbretto, 18 September 2011 - 01:10 AM.

[kieckeredinthehead]

Does the fact that he's a lefty pitching in Fenway alter the discussion at all? An average pitcher in the AL adds about 20 points to their OPS on the road; Lester's splits for his career are even: 699 at home, 699 on the road. This year, he's at 720 home / 637 road. I know it's just one data point, and I'm sure there are plenty of times when the Monster has helped him out, but if he had pitched the game he pitched today at the Trop, or any other park in the majors, Zobrist would've flied out to Crawford to end the first and Lester ends up at 7IP/2ER.

Let's look at what he's actually done in the postseason: 2.57 ERA, 8.36 K/9, 3.0 K/BB. Those numbers are comparable with Schilling's, and better than Pedro's. Sabathia's ERA in the postseason is 2 runs higher. Verlander was awful in his one chance at October.

In his first three starts in the postseason, Lester went: 5.2IP/0ER (COL Game 4 '07); 7IP/0ER (LAA Game 1 '08); 7IP/0ER (LAA Game 4 '08). In his last three starts, he went 5.2IP/4ER (TAM Game 3 '08); 7IP/3ER (TAM Game 7 '08); 6IP/3ER (LAA '09). So a few gems, a clunker, and a bunch of very good starts. If you look at Schilling's first few postseasons he did pretty much the same thing. Halladay had three starts last year: 9IP/0ER (0 hits so yeah, pretty elite), 7IP/4ER (versus the GIANTS), and 6IP/2ER. Even Cliff Lee hasn't been that much better (2.13 ERA, 9.47 K/9, 10.0 K/BB). He's gone longer in games, but he's also had a 7IP/5ER win against NY in the '09 WS and don't forget his 4.2 IP/6ER against the Giants last year. Big Game James is a misnomer.

Lester has been a very reliable starter. The problem is we haven't seen him in a zone for a long time. While Lee blew it in the WS last year, he's also pitched a bunch of CG shutouts, or 8IP/0ER, or 9IP/1ER. Lester is capable of that, but we haven't seen it in a while. He's not Koufax, but over the past three years he's been one of the best pitchers in the majors. I'd say he's elite, but underperforming.

[BucketOBalls]

Does the fact that he's a lefty pitching in Fenway alter the discussion at all? An average pitcher in the AL adds about 20 points to their OPS on the road; Lester's splits for his career are even: 699 at home, 699 on the road. This year, he's at 720 home / 637 road. I know it's just one data point, and I'm sure there are plenty of times when the Monster has helped him out, but if he had pitched the game he pitched today at the Trop, or any other park in the majors, Zobrist would've flied out to Crawford to end the first and Lester ends up at 7IP/2ER.

Has anyone ever looked at park effects on IP? I'm not really sure how you would do it though.


Looking at the intial chart, I'd say Lee, CC and Felix are clearly better; most of the others have had better peaks in the last few years but Lester has been more consistent than most of them.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

The postseason says hello.

The postseason, in fact, is a huge reason why he's not an elite pitcher. He started off his postseason career quite well against Colorado in '07 and LAA in '08, but since then he's got 3 straight postseason losses. These consisting of a terrible start against Tampa in Fenway, a decent start in Tampa in game 7 (7 innings 3 runs) and a mediocre start in LAAAAAAA in '09 (6 IP 3 R).

So he's not there yet. Throw in there the fact that he's supposed to be our best pitcher and yet just took a dump on the mound twice in the past week against our closest rivals in a cruicially tight playoff race and I think the point is compounded. He hasn't pitched his best when the team's needed him to.

[Paul M]

He's a notch behind the uber-aces we've been blessed to have over the last 25 years but he's among the top 10-12 American League starting pitchers and has been for 4 years. I think he plays a better role as your 2nd best starter in October but that's being greedy. I think the resume in October is right there with most of his peers but we remember a few tough ones like Tampa Game 3 and 7 which was tough to swallow. The only one he just didn't have it was Game 3. I do have this view Tampa hits him and makes him work harder than anyone but I think that is colored by a handful of games and ignores his great outings vs. Tampa. His 2008-2010 line in a large sample vs. Tampa was very strong (and vs. NYY even better), which also maybe magnifies those two losses in ALCS. 2011 Lester has come closer to the pack in the AL but he just needs to throw a few more strike ones and maybe change things up a little. Just like with Pedro vs. NY, after 15 starts against one team it does get harder to dominate.

[deconstruction]

He's a notch behind the uber-aces we've been blessed to have over the last 25 years but he's among the top 10-12 American League starting pitchers and has been for 4 years.

What 3-5 pitchers who aren't in the original table have been better than Lester over the past four years? Obviously, Halladay when he was in the AL, but he hasn't been since 2009. Haren's spent more than half of the last four years in the NL.

I think Lester's top five.

[Paul M]

I meant this year he's in that top 12 range; he was top 5 before this year.

[j44thor]

I meant this year he's in that top 12 range; he was top 5 before this year.

The interesting thing about Lester is that he doesn't have close to the peaks that those other starters listed have had but at the same time he hasn't had a season as a full time starter close to the worst season experienced by any of those starters even including this season. As a full time starter from age 24-27 Lester has never had a WHIP above 1.3 nor below 1.2.

I don't think anyone would argue that Lee is among the elite pitchers in baseball yet his age 29 season he put a Lackeyesque 1.52 WHIP and 6.29 ERA. Even the great Halladay put up a 1.35 WHIP and 4.20 ERA in his age 27 season. The only pitcher that is hard to judge compared to Lester at this age is Felix because he started so young and had the troubles you might expect at that age. Conversely all of those pitchers have also had seasons below a 1.2 WHIP.

Lester is an intersting case as he hasn't really taken the leap from very good to elite but he also hasn't hit a rough patch that might actually make him a better pitcher in the long run.

[Toe Nash]

So he's not there yet. Throw in there the fact that he's supposed to be our best pitcher and yet just took a dump on the mound twice in the past week against our closest rivals in a cruicially tight playoff race and I think the point is compounded. He hasn't pitched his best when the team's needed him to.

I know you're the master of hyperbole around here, especially when it's negative, but yesterday was not "taking a dump." He was off control-wise to the first batter of the game, which happens, but he would have been out of the inning with no damage if Zobrist's pop-up was in any other park (the wind didn't knock that down much as it did later fly balls, either). The next run was scored on a wild pitch that I felt Salty could have had (not should, but could have). And in the 5th he gave up two seeing-eye grounders, and a hard hit to Longoria who's one of the best hitters out there. Finally the ump's strike zone was good (and agreed with pitchFX for the most part) but it was somewhat tight.

He went 7 IP and in every other park he gives up 2 R, and with a little luck or a call or two he gives up 1.

Also for his career he has a 2.57 postseason ERA, and a 3.53 ERA in 92 IP against the Yankees. No pitcher is perfect every time.

But yeah, what have you done for me lately.

[dcmissle]

This makes absolutely no sense.

What is the difference between 'elite' and 'truly elite', especially when the other pitchers on that list have had 'valleys' as well. And I have no clue how to respond to your other assertions.

To be fair to him, might there be something to this, captured by the word "stopper"?

To those of us who lived through it, this is what Dave Stewart was and Roger Clemens was not during the autumns of the late 1980s. It's what Beckett undeniably was in several postseasons. I would consider these guys and Lester "elite" for at least several seasons each.

In other words, there's a next level, which may cut most of us deeply this year because neither Lester nor Beckett have achieved it. This year.

[joyofsox]

Before his last two starts, Lester had a nice 15-start run with a 2.14 ERA (June 7 to September 6).

Too many walks - 32 in 96.2 innings - but still, that's more than half his season starts.

There is issue with IP/GS, but in 16 of his 29 starts, he has allowed 2 or fewer runs.

Lester: 16 of 29
Hernandez: 16 of 31
Sabathia: 16 of 32
Verlander: 18 of 32
Weaver: 21 of 31

I don't "feel" like I'm watching an elite pitcher when he's out there, but he gets the job done pretty consistently.

Edited by joyofsox, 18 September 2011 - 09:41 AM.

[tims4wins]

I think we have to separate elite this year vs. elite in general, and also define what we mean as elite (vs. "truly elite). A guy who is a top 7 or top 5 starter in the AL is definitely elite... but every year, there are clearly 2-3 guys who are "truly elite" (e.g., Sabathia, Verlander, and Weaver this year).

In the other thread, I compared Lester 2011 to Dice K 2008. Dice K put up an awesome record and ERA (18-3, 2.90), but only threw 168 innings in 29 starts, and only threw more than 6 innings in 11 of those 29 starts. He had a very good year, an "elite" year, but Cliff Lee went 22-3 with a 1.11 WHIP, 2.54 ERA, and threw 223 innings, while Halladay went 20-11 with a 1.05 WHIP, 2.78 ERA, and 246 innings. In 2008, while Dice K was elite, Lee and Halladay were "truly elite".

Edited by tims4wins, 18 September 2011 - 09:43 AM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

The guy is 76-33 in his career, is on pace for his 4th straight year with 200+ IP, and has a career ERA+ of 134. This isn't his best year, but he's still having a very solid season. Let's not let our frustrations over the team's struggles cloud our vision here. Verlander is having a career year, but the bulk of his seasons have been worse than what Lester has done. Cliff Lee was sent back down to the minors when he was 28; Lester is 27. I define "elite" as "one of the best", and Lester certainly fits the bill.

Using post-season performance (esp. when Lester's isn't bad) is silly, by such a definition Pedro wasn't elite.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 18 September 2011 - 11:26 AM.

[No Guru No Method]

The postseason, in fact, is a huge reason why he's not an elite pitcher. He started off his postseason career quite well against Colorado in '07 and LAA in '08, but since then he's got 3 straight postseason losses. These consisting of a terrible start against Tampa in Fenway, a decent start in Tampa in game 7 (7 innings 3 runs) and a mediocre start in LAAAAAAA in '09 (6 IP 3 R).

His postseason stats are very good. Cherry pick away though. Compare his postseason numbers to CC Sabathia if you really want an eye-opener.

[Joshv02]

Sabathia allowed 7 runs in last year's first-vs.-second place AL East September game. I suppose we could quibble over if that was an important game. He pitched poorly in at least two of his three post season games last year, too.

Lee allowed 9 runs in 11.2 WS innings last year.

Halladay gave up 6 in 13 innings against the Giants in the NLCS.

Verlander gave up 5 against the Twins with his team barely up in the standings over them two years ago, only to have the Tigers eventually forced into (and to lose) a 1 game playoff.

Every pitcher has bad starts, even in games that matter. Every pitcher has bad years. If Jon Lester's bad years are a 134 ERA+, then Jon Lester is damn good. Define "elite" anyway you want, but it seems that if a guy has the same or better numbers over a number of years as other players you do call "elite," then we are looking at someone elite.

(My uncle - love him though I do - told me that Lester was "slightly above average." I'm having a hard time convincing myself that I should ever talk baseball with him again.)

[Snodgrass'Muff]

He's having a poor year... by his standards. I think the fact that we can say that this is a poor year for him suggests that he is elite overall. If he follows up this year by returning to what we've grown accustomed to, this will seem like a momentary blip on the radar. If he continues to struggle to get out of the 6th inning and doesn't get the walks back down, maybe we'll start considering his two years of utter dominance and one year of really excellent pitching as his peak.

For now, I have a hard time discounting three seasons of being one of the best pitchers in baseball because of one season in which he is merely one of the best in the AL.

[JohntheBaptist]

The postseason, in fact, is a huge reason why he's not an elite pitcher. He started off his postseason career quite well against Colorado in '07 and LAA in '08, but since then he's got 3 straight postseason losses. These consisting of a terrible start against Tampa in Fenway, a decent start in Tampa in game 7 (7 innings 3 runs) and a mediocre start in LAAAAAAA in '09 (6 IP 3 R).

So he's not there yet. Throw in there the fact that he's supposed to be our best pitcher and yet just took a dump on the mound twice in the past week against our closest rivals in a cruicially tight playoff race and I think the point is compounded. He hasn't pitched his best when the team's needed him to.

Translation: "the Sox aren't doing well and I'm cranky."

Go look at Verlander's postseason stats. Go look at Johan Santana's when he was the best in the league. Usually you're better than this, I don't get why its impossible to stay objective when the team's playing poorly.

What you've given us here is that in the postseason he was really good and then mediocre, and that he's had a bad last few starts at a bad time, ergo, not elite.

[Van Everyman]

My biggest postseason memory of Lester was the "mediocre" game 7 in 2008 in which he pitched well enough to win. I think we forget how much the guy absolutely carried the team that year. Beckett was even-year and brutal in that series. Buchholz disappointed hugely after his promise in 2007. Dice-K had the most bullpen-reliant 18 wins in baseball history.

If we're judging elite by the "we got this" feeling, I felt it almost all year long with Lester in 2008. To the extent I didn't feel it in that game 7 it was only because the guy was absolutely gassed by that point. Less than two years after being diagnosed with cancer.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

His postseason stats are very good. Cherry pick away though. Compare his postseason numbers to CC Sabathia if you really want an eye-opener.

He's lost his last three postseason starts. What's the confusion here?

His postseason stats are driven by his 2 excellent starts against LAA in the '08 ALDS. Since then he's pitched very, very medicore, er, -ly.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Translation: "the Sox aren't doing well and I'm cranky."

Go look at Verlander's postseason stats. Go look at Johan Santana's when he was the best in the league. Usually you're better than this, I don't get why its impossible to stay objective when the team's playing poorly.

What you've given us here is that in the postseason he was really good and then mediocre, and that he's had a bad last few starts at a bad time, ergo, not elite.

Did you miss the whole part about blowing up twice against Tampa in the last week, games that could have salted away a playoff spot for this team? And that, combined with long stretch of poor postseason pitching, shows that he's not the staff ace/elite pitcher we all, including me, had assumed him to be?

These are big games and he's failed in all of them.

[Rudy Pemberton]

SJH,

Was Pedro an elite pitcher, given his record in the post-season?

[The Gray Eagle]

I wish we had Pedro starting tomorrow. The current, old, retired Pedro.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

SJH,

Was Pedro an elite pitcher, given his record in the post-season?

Of course he was. You've also conveniently ignored the fact that it's not just the postseson I've based my arguments on.

[Flynn4ever]

If I were a sociologist studying the Sox nation, I would assume that we all thought that Lester and Buchholz were going to be Pedro and Curt going forward. They haven't been. In the post-steroid era, not being at that level seems to be just a step below elite to me. If we get to October, though, I will feel pretty good with any matchup involving Lester, and if Clay comes back I will be glad but cautious.

[Reverend]

He's lost his last three postseason starts. What's the confusion here?

His postseason stats are driven by his 2 excellent starts against LAA in the '08 ALDS. Since then he's pitched very, very medicore, er, -ly.

Did you miss the whole part about blowing up twice against Tampa in the last week, games that could have salted away a playoff spot for this team? And that, combined with long stretch of poor postseason pitching, shows that he's not the staff ace/elite pitcher we all, including me, had assumed him to be?

These are big games and he's failed in all of them.

Two of those last three post-season starts were against Tampa.

Two of two of those last two starts were against Tampa.

There might be some sampling issues at work here.

Edited by Reverend, 18 September 2011 - 05:41 PM.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Two of those last three post-season starts were against Tampa.

Two of two of those those last two starts were against Tampa.

There might be some sampling issues at work here.

This is a fair point, and I suppose it would be worth looking into why they've been been beating him regularly since they got good in 2008.

[No Guru No Method]

He's lost his last three postseason starts. What's the confusion here?

His postseason stats are driven by his 2 excellent starts against LAA in the '08 ALDS. Since then he's pitched very, very medicore, er, -ly.

So obviously the first two don't count. Get out the asterisks and pitchforks !

[Paul M]

Lester 2008-2010 vs. Tampa is 8-3 with 3.27 ERA. We are focusing on a few games, but I think we are guilty of a what have you done for me lately attitude. Facing the same team twice in a week usually is tough for almost any pitcher and Shields lost a game for Tampa and also lost games against us in the post-season.

Steve, I admire the passion and fire but I think you are letting emotions get the best of you on this one. Lester is maybe not a bet the house guy right now but I still wouldn't put more than 10 other starters out there ahead of him. I will say Tampa's scouting must be the best in baseball and exploits any edge they can find which they may have with Lester more this year.

[Rasputin]

Of course he was. You've also conveniently ignored the fact that it's not just the postseson I've based my arguments on.

Calling them arguments is generous.

You're taking a handful of games against good teams where he didn't perform well and saying those mean he's not an elite pitcher.

That's nonsense.

[Hee-Seop's Fable]

I think we have to separate elite this year vs. elite in general, and also define what we mean as elite (vs. "truly elite). A guy who is a top 7 or top 5 starter in the AL is definitely elite... but every year, there are clearly 2-3 guys who are "truly elite" (e.g., Sabathia, Verlander, and Weaver this year).

In the other thread, I compared Lester 2011 to Dice K 2008. Dice K put up an awesome record and ERA (18-3, 2.90), but only threw 168 innings in 29 starts, and only threw more than 6 innings in 11 of those 29 starts. He had a very good year, an "elite" year, but Cliff Lee went 22-3 with a 1.11 WHIP, 2.54 ERA, and threw 223 innings, while Halladay went 20-11 with a 1.05 WHIP, 2.78 ERA, and 246 innings. In 2008, while Dice K was elite, Lee and Halladay were "truly elite".

Lester may not pan out as a hall of famer, but he's really good and we are lucky to have him wearing our laundry. ...and if Buchholz was not hurt this year and pitched like a top 10-15 pitcher in the AL like we know he's capable of, this conversation would be a passing curiosity rather than an issue of critical interest, and SJH wouldn't be laying a big pile of the blame for the current dire situation at his feet. The bullpen wouldn't be overstressed, Tito would look smarter and like a better motivator, Theo's process wouldn't be in question (and the high payroll compared to Tampa would be an afterthought). Lackey and Crawford would both bring a sourpuss to all our faces, but they would be annoyances bubbling below the surface. Add in a healthy Youk, Dice-K and Hill and we'd be competing with Philly for the best record in baseball and talking about the playoff rotation running all the way through the World Series.

Amazing the domino effect a couple of injuries to the wrong guys has. Not every franchise has a Matt Cassell waiting at every position, and not every MVP/Cy Young candidate can hoist their teammates on their shoulders and do it virtually alone. Very few can; being critical of Lester for not being one of the few is unfortunate. Given it's come up here on a civil level tells me there are going to be a lot of land mines to avoid in the newspapers and on the radio tomorrow.

[kneemoe]

He's lost his last three postseason starts. What's the confusion here?

His postseason stats are driven by his 2 excellent starts against LAA in the '08 ALDS. Since then he's pitched very, very medicore, er, -ly.

So here on SOSH, you are seriously measuring a pitcher by W-L record?
I don't think there's anything more to say but WOW.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

So here on SOSH, you are seriously measuring a pitcher by W-L record?
I don't think there's anything more to say but WOW.

He's pitched like a very mediocre pitcher in his last three psotseason starts AND in each of the two huge games against Tampa in the last week when the team desperately needed a win. Better?

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Calling them arguments is generous.

You're taking a handful of games against good teams where he didn't perform well and saying those mean he's not an elite pitcher.

That's nonsense.

He gets judged by his performances when his team needed him to win a big game. Those all go into the larger body of work to take a look at his pitching. He's come up short in big games where the team needed him to win. What's nonsense is ignoring how badly he's pitched against Tampa this week in a crucially tight race where a badly slumping team needed an ace performance from him.

[joe dokes]

He gets judged by his performances when his team needed him to win a big game. Those all go into the larger body of work to take a look at his pitching. He's come up short in big games where the team needed him to win. What's nonsense is ignoring how badly he's pitched against Tampa this week in a crucially tight race where a badly slumping team needed an ace performance from him.

But against Toronto, a series with games "crucial" enough to demand Francona's scalp for using Bard, he pitched 7 3-hit innings with 11 Ks;

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

But against Toronto, a series with games "crucial" enough to demand Francona's scalp for using Bard, he pitched 7 3-hit innings with 11 Ks;

Great. And then he pitched like garbage against the team attempting to run them down for the WC, at a time when the team badly needed a win. Twice.