641 replies to this topic

[yecul]

Maybe they re-evaluate how they approach free agency after this season, particularly with regards to pitching. The Yankees were able to add some quality depth with Colon and Garcia off the scrap heap, and maybe that's a wiser approach when it comes to pitching unless you're acquiring a sure-fire stud free agent SP.

They added Millwood and did nothing with him. He's pitching OK with Colorado, so that was probably a hit on the depth acquisition front. Of course, it benefited another team.

I think this team needs to do a lot of evaluating from top to bottom. Player scouting (Hi Lackey), statistical valuing (Hi Carl), conditioning/training/medical, etc. They've had some HUGE swings and misses.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Agree to disagree, I don't really think getting rid of Lackey now will serve any purpose other than making you happy. They aren't going to release a guy with 3 years, $48M left on his deal. Same goes with Crawford. Sox are stuck with these guys, better or worse. Selling low is never a great strategy. Think back to last year, there were folks ready to dump Papelbon (some suggested a non-tender) and Ellsbury, weren't there?

They won't be selling anything, they'll be putting garbage out on the curb. And let's not make a comparison between disappointing years for Paps and Ellsbury and THE VERY WORST STARTING PITCHER IN ALL OF BASEBALL ON A 5 YEAR DOWNWARD TREND. For fuck's sakes.

The only thing that matters is on-field performance. Lackey ain't providing it. No matter what his contract, out with the trash he goes.

[donutogre]

Maybe they re-evaluate how they approach free agency after this season, particularly with regards to pitching. The Yankees were able to add some quality depth with Colon and Garcia off the scrap heap, and maybe that's a wiser approach when it comes to pitching unless you're acquiring a sure-fire stud free agent SP.

True, but we've tried the scrap heap before...and it hasn't worked out well. Remember Penny and Smoltz, and I'm sure there were more...

That said, those deals are definitely less costly and damaging long-term. It is pretty shocking how they've let Lackey pitch this many terrible innings, but Penny and Smoltz were cut once it was clear they didn't have it. I'd have to guess it was because of the relative investments involved.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I'd love to see them drop Crawford and Lackey; suggesting they'll eat over $100M in contracts seems a tad unrealistic, although perhaps playing with a smaller payroll would force them to be more disciplined and efficient. Haven't done a great job at finding the next Mueller / Millar / Ortiz kind of players. No matter what happens, they are going to have to be creative since they won't have much money to work with.

[Fratboy]

Agree to disagree, I don't really think getting rid of Lackey now will serve any purpose other than making you happy. They aren't going to release a guy with 3 years, $48M left on his deal. Same goes with Crawford. Sox are stuck with these guys, better or worse. Selling low is never a great strategy. Think back to last year, there were folks ready to dump Papelbon (some suggested a non-tender) and Ellsbury, weren't there?

There's a difference between selling and cutting bait. Remember Russ Ortiz? It was a horrible contract from the word go, and to the Diamondbacks' credit, eating the sunk costs in that situation was absolutely the right thing to do.

My larger point is that even if they make the playoffs, it's not going to make their issues disappear going forward, and I have to think the front office recognizes that.

[smastroyin]

The problem is the starting pitching. Let's go down the depth chart:

Beckett: Been very good, we'll see ho whe comes back, hopefully the overcaution with the ankle was a disguise for getting him a little rest so he can dominate for the next 6 weeks.
Lester: Frankly, a disappointing year. Far too many ups and downs and a lack of consistently delivering good starts 3-4 games in a row. These things happen, but it's annoying. The injury probably didn't help.
Lackey: Has a chance to go down as the worst FA signing in Red Sox history. I would call him replacement level but they have had trouble even coming up with replacements. Faux injuries as well?
Buchholz: Can't predict injury but still, he's not helping much
Dice-K: Gone for year and probably for good. Another injury.
Wakefield: Hasn't been hurt, but hasn't been good since July. Sad that the 44 year old is the only guy, literally, they have been able to count on to take the ball all year.
Doubront: Gone for year. Another injury.
Miller: Nice experiment, everyone knew they couldn't really rely on him down the stretch, Beckett+Buchholz+Bedard being out is the only reason he has pitched the last two weeks.
Bedard: Good pickup, he has trouble staying on the mound, pulling him for a start or two seems more precaution than serious, but who knows. Hard to blame Sox here, but let's face it, another injury on their watch.
Weiland: Not ready.


When the starting pitching is as bad as it has been for the past 3 weeks, it makes every other problem on the team worse. The offense is up and down? Not a problem if you can win 2-1 or 3-2. Unreliable bullpen arms? You have to use them when you need to get 4+ innings night after night.

As Paul mentioned, this is the largest area of investment that this team has made, and it is, without question, its biggest weakness down the stretch. Theo needs to take a look up and down this organization and find out, essentially, what is the problem. Say it is a fluke but this is the fourth year in a row they are going into late September with the rotation a shambles due to injury. Something is not working with the way they approach pitching scouting, evaluation, conditioning, usage, something. There is only so much that you can just call bad luck and is just getting so frustrating to watch it year after year. Watching Garcia and Colon pitch like they are 10 years younger in the Bronx doesn't help the mood much either.

That said, the talent is there, at least at the top, and unless the pitchers just don't agree with him at all, you need to give Curt Young another year, I think.

[yecul]

I'd love to see them drop Crawford and Lackey; suggesting they'll eat over $100M in contracts seems a tad unrealistic, although perhaps playing with a smaller payroll would force them to be more disciplined and efficient. Haven't done a great job at finding the next Mueller / Millar / Ortiz kind of players. No matter what happens, they are going to have to be creative since they won't have much money to work with.

It is far easier to find those types at corner spots. For the most part those are filled. You're not going to unearth some undervalued stud SS anytime soon.

Much easier to bring in a 4-5 guys for 3 spots when we're talking 1B, 3B and DH. That said, the Giambi, Hillenbrand, Mueller, Millar and Ortiz situation worked out incredibly and would be hard to reproduce.

You can't dump Carl yet.

Lackey either needs major surgery or to find a new team. If there is nothing wrong with him physically then it's really hard to imagine any improvement. This is a guy who had mediocre stuff when he was putting up good numbers. What an awful, awful signing.


Edit -- Totally agree with smas above about evaluating their approach top to bottom, especially on the pitching side. Injuries happen. Injuries to pitchers happen even more. But the recent lack of success is troubling and the fact that they pride themselves on their throwing program seems all the more bizarre. Bad luck? Bad medical evaluation up front? Bad throwing programs? Bad usage? Bad luck? Bad talent?

Edited by yecul, 16 September 2011 - 08:49 AM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

There's a difference between selling and cutting bait. Remember Russ Ortiz? It was a horrible contract from the word go, and to the Diamondbacks' credit, eating the sunk costs in that situation was absolutely the right thing to do.

They released him in the final year of his deal, though; and the guy who released him wasn't the one who signed him. Theo signed Lackey; for him to then eat his contract- with three years left- would be unprecedented. I guess the message is that usually GM's who make mistakes like Lackey aren't around long enough to cut bait and get a chance to fix the problem.

(Unrelated- but in hindsight, it's a shame they had to trade Masterson. He really would have helped the team the past few years. Oh well; seemed clear the organization never wanted to get rid of him but his presence could have avoided the Lackey Affair all together).

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 16 September 2011 - 08:51 AM.

[NomarRS05]

True, but we've tried the scrap heap before...and it hasn't worked out well. Remember Penny and Smoltz, and I'm sure there were more...

That said, those deals are definitely less costly and damaging long-term. It is pretty shocking how they've let Lackey pitch this many terrible innings, but Penny and Smoltz were cut once it was clear they didn't have it. I'd have to guess it was because of the relative investments involved.

The only way to have truly reliable starting pitching is to develop your own. Acquiring pitching talent is just so damn risky no matter how much money you spend, unless it's on one of 10-15 select SP's. What's most disconcerting right now is the apparent lack of arms in the farm system.

[RingoOSU]

They released him in the final year of his deal, though; and the guy who released him wasn't the one who signed him. Theo signed Lackey; for him to then eat his contract- with three years left- would be unprecedented. I guess the message is that usually GM's who make mistakes like Lackey aren't around long enough to cut bait and get a chance to fix the problem.

They released him midway through the second year of a four year contract. Though, the 22 mil sunk cost was less than half Lackey's remaining owed.

[Rudy Pemberton]

They released him midway through the second year of a four year contract. Though, the 22 mil sunk cost was less than half Lackey's remaining owed.

Ah, my bad...the baseball-reference salary amounts by year appear to be incorrect. As far as I can tell, that's the largest salary ever eaten.

[The Gray Eagle]

On the other hand, the offense is doing great, averaging 6.7 runs per game over the last 9. That's what I call stepping it up for the pennant race!

Unfortunately 32 of the 60 runs we scored in that time have come in 2 games, only 28 in the other 7-- a sweet 16 runs per game in the wins, but 4 per game in the losses. This seems insanely unlucky or insanely unclutch. Insanely something. Insanity is definitely involved somehow.

[Ted Cox 4 president]

i don't think the loss of Buchholz can be overstated. Last year he started 28 games, won 17, had an ERA+ of 185. He was huge for the RS. Injuries happen, and you have to be prepared for all sorts of contingencies. But, still, I think this season would've gone very differently if Clay had been in the rotation the whole year.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

On the other hand, the offense is doing great, averaging 6.7 runs per game over the last 9. That's what I call stepping it up for the pennant race!

Unfortunately 32 of the 60 runs we scored in that time have come in 2 games, only 28 in the other 7-- a sweet 16 runs per game in the wins, but 4 per game in the losses. This seems insanely unlucky or insanely unclutch. Insanely something. Insanity is definitely involved somehow.

This. In tighter games their plate discipline goes right to hell as they all hack and try to make something happen instead of just letting the game come to them. They're tight, they're pressing and it shows.

[BucketOBalls]

On the other hand, the offense is doing great, averaging 6.7 runs per game over the last 9. That's what I call stepping it up for the pennant race!

Unfortunately 32 of the 60 runs we scored in that time have come in 2 games, only 28 in the other 7-- a sweet 16 runs per game in the wins, but 4 per game in the losses. This seems insanely unlucky or insanely unclutch. Insanely something. Insanity is definitely involved somehow.

I think the problem is, the have a bunch of weak hitters in the lineup due to injuries/regression/etc. When you get a pitcher who is crummy enough that Lowrie, Reddick and the gimpy shells of the other guys can actually hit them, the lineup comes alive again. Anyone semi-decent...most of the lineup can't hit.

[twothousandone]

You're not going to unearth some undervalued stud SS anytime soon.

Which makes the Scutaro signing look pretty damn good, in hindsight. Including the option, that it now seems they would be wise to pick up. If he were 24 and had just put up two major league seasons with these stats (especially if scouts had raved about him in the minors) he’d be considered a stud. That wouldn’t necessarily be wrong, nor would it be right to consider Scutaro a stud, but I’m glad they have him – for this year and next.

[TheYaz67]

As of right now, 18 members are either total nannies or just trolling. To legitimately believe the Sox have a less than 80% chance to make the playoffs is a belief that employs no math or logic that I'm aware of.

Yeah, I'm feeling so foolish for voting "70-79%" just a week ago. Who cares about math, when a team is playing awful and injured, you have to use your eyes and intuition, not your calculator some times. If Beckett and Lester cannot right the ship today and tomorrow (and the bats waking up), we look like a dead man walking - all the momentum is going against us. I'm not comforted by the fact that we get to play the O's 7 times - they just took 2 or 3 from the Rays....

[Harry Hooper]

A sunk cost excision is not in the cards. Maybe it won't be TJ surgery, but Lackey will get some sort of procedure done after the season. Then his future will be so bright that we'll have to wear shades. Or at least he might out-pitch Kevin Millwood going forward.

As for Carlbatross, it is hard to imagine he's going anywhere. Could he turn it around in 2012? Sure, but letting his hitting woes negatively impact his fielding this season suggests a makeup not well-suited to this market.

[Paul M]

They have spent more on starting pitching the last two years than any team in the league. They have an ERA closer to the worst than the best. That combination is a disastrous one. Pitching is inherently so much more volatile than hitting that I wonder about they price risk. One year you can be a top 30 starter and the next you are in the bottom half and this happens a lot. People laugh at some of the deals in the boom years of 1998-2001 in free agency (Brown, Dreifort, Neagle, Hampton) but we still see it today in the form of Zito, Lackey, Burnett, and Zambrano. That's $400 million of crap.

Look at Atlanta and they have to be lauded big-time for what they have done with pitching for decades. This year they have their two best starters hurting and they can throw a Delgado, Teheran, Beachy, and Minor up at a cost of 14 days of Lackey. Not to mention Venters and Kimbrel.

[TomRicardo]

I am shocked that Lackey can walk through Boston without shit being thrown at him. He is terrible and he is a massive prick. Simply put people aren't working hard enough to convince him to retire

[dcmissle]

Steve, if they can't even win 6 of 13 do they honestly deserve to make it? Just win 2 of 6 vs. NY/Tampa and go 4-3 vs. Baltimore and that's a tall order. You are probably right; I just have to assume even a couple starts from non-replacement level pitchers and a little home-cooking helps.

Can you imagine this place if this were pre-2004?

Unfortunately, yes.

With all of the problems that everyone agrees are out of the control of anyone in the dugout -- injuries, ill conceived acquisitions, and so forth -- failure to qualify is still mind boggling in a way. They can't come in at .500 (a little less, actually) after playing .200 the last 20 games, with everything now on the line? Really??

If it comes to pass, blame is going to be spread to Beckett, Lester and, most important, the positional players. And justifiably so. Somebody had a good phrase for this, in the Theo thread I think --

spit the bit.

[JMDurron]

The fact that the team has been playing like shit for the past two weeks does not make them a lock to keep playing like shit for the next two weeks. Given that, and the fact that the team is still up 3 games on their closest competitor, so long as the Sox win at least one game of the remaining 3 against TB, I still like our odds. Not 90-95% "like our odds", but more like 75-80%. Freak things like the bat/ball combo flying at Scutaro last night just happen sometimes, it doesn't mean the team is doomed.

Being up 3 with two weeks left isn't a disaster. Blowing the lead and missing the playoffs WOULD be a disaster, but contrary to the tone of many of the posts in this thread, that hasn't happened yet. The quality of play has sucked lately, but this isn't the first time the team has played like garbage for 2 weeks this season, and I'm pretty confident that this trend will reverse itself. I just hope that the reversal starts tonight instead of in, say, 3 days.

[Rasputin]

Look at the way they've played this month and tell me if you can honestly see them winning 6 games over the rest of the season. Or even 2 against Tampa/NY. I don't see it.

I do. I don't even have to try hard to imagine it. Beckett and Lester each win two more starts, the offense clobbers Baltimore a few times, and we're not just winning 6 games but maybe 8.

Those are good teams playing good baseball; the Red Sox are not. Home cooking hasn't helped, starts from Lester haven't helped...nothing has helped. They are playing awful baseball, the manager's taken a huge brain dump over the past two weeks, and they're pressing so badly I think assuming they're capable of going .500 for the rest of the year is a huge stretch.

It always looks like that when they're losing and it always changes in an instant when they start to win. Your perception is not reality.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I do. I don't even have to try hard to imagine it. Beckett and Lester each win two more starts, the offense clobbers Baltimore a few times, and we're not just winning 6 games but maybe 8.

Not to be Debbie Downer or anything, but since their 11-run pasting at the Bidet on Sept. 5, the Baltimore pitching staff is on a roll. A 3.31 ERA over the past 9 games, versus some pretty good offenses (NYY, TOR and TBR). I wouldn't necessarily count on too much clobbering going on in those games next week (at least not when we're up).

Really, I think it's going to come down to the next 48 hours. If Beckett and Lester can both deliver wins, it's very nearly over. If one of them does, we're in good shape but still in a fight. If neither of them does, ruh-roh.

[dcmissle]

Beyond that, there is probably some score settling on the menu from Buck's perspective, resulting from some Orioles' nonsense during the last series.

He approached the Rays' series very professionally, and I suspect we will get the Orioles' very best. He'll manage these like playoff games.

[Rasputin]

Not to be Debbie Downer or anything, but since their 11-run pasting at the Bidet on Sept. 5, the Baltimore pitching staff is on a roll. A 3.31 ERA over the past 9 games, versus some pretty good offenses (NYY, TOR and TBR). I wouldn't necessarily count on too much clobbering going on in those games next week (at least not when we're up).

And the Red Sox offense can clobber anyone.

Really, I think it's going to come down to the next 48 hours. If Beckett and Lester can both deliver wins, it's very nearly over. If one of them does, we're in good shape but still in a fight. If neither of them does, ruh-roh.

There's at least a little bit of truth to this. Quite a bit more actually. If both win then the Rays are close to cooked. If one of them walks off the field with an injury then making the postseason is likely only a short postponement of the inevitable.

[Savin Hillbilly]

And the Red Sox offense can clobber anyone.

True. I was just cautioning against the tendency to assume that the Orioles' staff is a particularly ripe one for clobbering. That has been true before (and probably will be again), but doesn't appear to be right at the moment.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

Let's suggest that the sox treat the next 10 games like the post season... What is the best team they can put out there considering injuries? How far away is that team from the team that tore it up all season? Is that team good enough to win six ourt of the next ten?

Line-up

Ellsbury
Pedroia
Gonzalez
Youks
Ortiz
Crawford
Salty
Reddick
Scutaro

Starting Pitching

Lester
Beckett
Bedard (he's got to get a start in a week)
Wake

Relievers
Papelbon
Bard
Aceves
Albers
Wheeler
Morales
Tazawa

Bench
Macdonald
Aviles
Varitek
Lowrie
Lavarnway

This is the team I'd field over the next ten games unless there's garbage time...

How much worse is this team than the team that was on pace to win 100games ?
Now people are banged up , but isn't this essentially the same team more or less? What they need is to get hot, they have been streaky all season.
Who is really not out there that helped accumulate the 86 wins that they have now?
the only name that really comes to mind is Bucholz

Besides injuries I don't get why this team is suddenly uncapable of playing good baseball.

[tims4wins]

Besides injuries I don't get why this team is suddenly uncapable of playing good baseball.

And besides hitting an iceberg, the Titantic had a decent maiden voyage. Injuries have caused a ton of problems, from starters not going deep, to relievers not being as effective, to the offense pressing, etc. Injuries have been HUGE.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Lester
Beckett
Bedard (he's got to get a start in a week)
Wake

Sorry, but you're going to need to add Lackey to that list, and worse, you're going to need to give Weiland or Miller (or Tazawa, or somebody) one more start while the season is still hanging in the balance, thanks to Monday's doubleheader.

9/16 -- Beckett
9/17 -- Lester
9/18 -- Wake
9/19 (1) -- Bedard
9/19 (2) -- Lackey
9/20 -- ?

Unless you want Beckett, coming off an injury, to pitch on three days' rest, you're going to need a 6th starter on Tuesday. If not one of the three named above, maybe Bowden or Aceves.

[j44thor]

And besides hitting an iceberg, the Titantic had a decent maiden voyage. Injuries have caused a ton of problems, from starters not going deep, to relievers not being as effective, to the offense pressing, etc. Injuries have been HUGE.

I don't get why people have a hard time understanding that this team has had just horrible luck compared to say the NYY.

How many times out of 100 does the MFY get 30 more starts out of Colon/Garcia at above league average pitching than the Sox get out of Clay/Dice K.

I don't think it was a stretch at the beginning of the year to expect Clay to have more wins than Colon/Garcia combined simply because it was highly unlikely that either would still be starting for NY after the ASB/trading deadline let alone still reasonably effective in Sept.

Clearly Cashman sold his soul to the devil in order to get roughly 1000% more out of that rotation than could be reasonably expected even by the most optimistic NYY Fan.

If Clay is healthy and or Cashman still has a soul the Sox probably walk away with the division.

[mfried]

Let's suggest that the sox treat the next 10 games like the post season... What is the best team they can put out there considering injuries? How far away is that team from the team that tore it up all season? Is that team good enough to win six ourt of the next ten?

Line-up

Ellsbury
Pedroia
Gonzalez
Youks
Ortiz
Crawford
Salty
Reddick
Scutaro

Starting Pitching

Lester
Beckett
Bedard (he's got to get a start in a week)
Wake

Relievers
Papelbon
Bard
Aceves
Albers
Wheeler
Morales
Tazawa

Bench
Macdonald
Aviles
Varitek
Lowrie
Lavarnway

This is the team I'd field over the next ten games unless there's garbage time...

How much worse is this team than the team that was on pace to win 100games ?
Now people are banged up , but isn't this essentially the same team more or less? What they need is to get hot, they have been streaky all season.
Who is really not out there that helped accumulate the 86 wins that they have now?
the only name that really comes to mind is Bucholz

Besides injuries I don't get why this team is suddenly uncapable of playing good baseball.

Good general points. However, you conveniently miss the fact that Youks is so badly hurt that his fielding and hitting vie for each other in incompetence. Also, Lackey is regrettably a piece of the starting pitcher picture, not my favorite one either.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

Sorry, but you're going to need to add Lackey to that list, and worse, you're going to need to give Weiland or Miller (or Tazawa, or somebody) one more start while the season is still hanging in the balance, thanks to Monday's doubleheader.

9/16 -- Beckett
9/17 -- Lester
9/18 -- Wake
9/19 (1) -- Bedard
9/19 (2) -- Lackey
9/20 -- ?

Unless you want Beckett, coming off an injury, to pitch on three days' rest, you're going to need a 6th starter on Tuesday. If not one of the three named above, maybe Bowden or Aceves.

My main point was that people are talking like this team is so radically different from the team that won all those games and I don't see that it is. If you treat these games like th playoffs brining Beckett and Lester back short might not be out of the question.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

My main point was that people are talking like this team is so radically different from the team that won all those games and I don't see that it is. If you treat these games like th playoffs brining Beckett and Lester back short might not be out of the question.

I think people are saying the team that has shit the bed since the start of the month has been drastically different, and it has. The team going forward is more like the opening day roster (though still missing a few key components), and should fare much better.

But they're recently played games in which all or some of Ortiz, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Drew, Rich Hill, Daisuke, Buchholz, Beckett, Bedard and Jenks were not available. That's a ton of the opening day roster and your big pick up at the trade dead line.

Going forward is a different story, though.

[NDame616]

The problem is the starting pitching. Let's go down the depth chart:

Beckett: Been very good, we'll see ho whe comes back, hopefully the overcaution with the ankle was a disguise for getting him a little rest so he can dominate for the next 6 weeks.
Lester: Frankly, a disappointing year. Far too many ups and downs and a lack of consistently delivering good starts 3-4 games in a row. These things happen, but it's annoying. The injury probably didn't help.Lackey: Has a chance to go down as the worst FA signing in Red Sox history. I would call him replacement level but they have had trouble even coming up with replacements. Faux injuries as well?
Buchholz: Can't predict injury but still, he's not helping much
Dice-K: Gone for year and probably for good. Another injury.
Wakefield: Hasn't been hurt, but hasn't been good since July. Sad that the 44 year old is the only guy, literally, they have been able to count on to take the ball all year.
Doubront: Gone for year. Another injury.
Miller: Nice experiment, everyone knew they couldn't really rely on him down the stretch, Beckett+Buchholz+Bedard being out is the only reason he has pitched the last two weeks.
Bedard: Good pickup, he has trouble staying on the mound, pulling him for a start or two seems more precaution than serious, but who knows. Hard to blame Sox here, but let's face it, another injury on their watch.
Weiland: Not ready.

I don't post much, but the bolded part is so untrue I had to.

Before his last start, in his last 5 starts he had a 1.16 ERA.

Since June, he's 8-5 with a 2.41 ERA.

His last start was a stinker, I will give you that, but in his last 3 and a half months he's been a top tier pitcher in the AL

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

There's a few reason's why the Yankees won't mail it in against tampa..

1. They may not clinch until after the first series. They want to clinch the division, but even a playoff birth.
2. The starting pitching behind CC for the playoffs is undecided. That means that all the other guys are still trying out for the playoff roster. They have every reason to want to throw there best starts just so they don't get left out or relinquished to the pen.
3. They are desperately trying to get Mariano his saves record. You need to win games to get saves.
4. Wouldn't they rather meet Boston's problematic team then the Tampa Bay team with great starters.
5. multiple position players are actively trying to get on the postseason roster. Posada, Montero, and a couple bullpen arms.

[smastroyin]

I don't post much, but the bolded part is so untrue I had to.

Before his last start, in his last 5 starts he had a 1.16 ERA.

Since June, he's 8-5 with a 2.41 ERA.

His last start was a stinker, I will give you that, but in his last 3 and a half months he's been a top tier pitcher in the AL

Lester has not given up runs but has been using a ton of pitches and being more of a strain on the bullpen himself than the ERA would suggest. He's gone more than 6 innings only 4 times in his 10 starts since coming back from his injury, and all but one have been him needing to be pulled because his PC was rising toward 120.

[tims4wins]

Lester has not given up runs but has been using a ton of pitches and being more of a strain on the bullpen himself than the ERA would suggest. He's gone more than 6 innings only 4 times in his 10 starts since coming back from his injury, and all but one have been him needing to be pulled because his PC was rising toward 120.

I'm with smas. A "top tier starting pitcher" goes deep into games. Lester does not do this consistently enough. Out of 28 starts this year, he has gone over 6.0 IP only 11 times.

Let's look at the other top tier starting pitchers in the AL - the guys widely in the discussion for Cy Young:

Sabathia has done it 25 times out of 31.

Verlander has done it 24 times out of 32.

Weaver has done it 24 times out of 31.

Lester isn't CLOSE to that level.

Edit: compare Lester to mystery pitcher A:

Pitcher A: 29 GS, 2.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 167 2/3 IP, 11 out of 29 games over 6 IP
Lester 2011: 28 GS, 3.07 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 176 IP, 11 out of 28 games over 6 IP

Spoiler

Pitcher A is Dice-K, circa 2008

[Harry Hooper]

Playoff odds just took a hit (7% decline?) after Longoria's tater in the first, but it ain't over yet.

[yecul]

Miss the playoffs or get immediately eliminated. What's the difference?

[Rasputin]

Miss the playoffs or get immediately eliminated. What's the difference?

At least three games.

Do you really think this team gets immediately eliminated? Really? Because I think that's ridiculous.

[Rasputin]

So, everyone but yecul, do you feel better?

Beckett = back.
Bard = back.

We can lose the rest of the series and still be two games up.

I don't get to watch tomorrow's game because my local Fox affiliate gives me the effing Braves.

[The Allented Mr Ripley]

SJH may now want to ponder if he should bleach out his urine stains.

[JakeRae]

So, everyone but yecul, do you feel better?

Beckett = back.
Bard = back.

We can lose the rest of the series and still be two games up.

I don't get to watch tomorrow's game because my local Fox affiliate gives me the effing Braves.

Given that I stated my optimism relatively recently, I doubt I'm your target audience. But, I definitely feel better after tonight's win. Every once in a while I need something to happen that backs up my perennial optimism.

[RedOctober3829]

One appearance doesn't mean Bard is "back". Let's wait to see how he does the rest of the way.

[Rasputin]

One appearance doesn't mean Bard is "back". Let's wait to see how he does the rest of the way.

Bullshit. Two bad outings do not negate fifty good ones.

[RedOctober3829]

Bullshit. Two bad outings do not negate fifty good ones.

He's been great this year, but I'll feel better when I see the arm slot a couple more times where it was tonight.

[BucketOBalls]

One appearance doesn't mean Bard is "back". Let's wait to see how he does the rest of the way.

We'll see, but it's a decent reason to thing that he just had a transient slump rather than an injury or something major. Similarly, a good start from Lester would go a long way.

It's obvious, but they are gonna have to play better than 3-11 the rest of the way to make it. Having Beckett back helps a fair bit with that then.

Edited by BucketOBalls, 16 September 2011 - 11:44 PM.

[Rasputin]

It's obvious, but they are gonna have to play better than 3-11 the rest of the way to make it. Having Beckett back helps a fair bit with that then.

Twelve games left. 3-9 would mean the Rays would have to go 7-5 to tie and 8-4 to win. That's certainly doable but when nine of their remaining games are against teams ahead of them in the standings it's no gimme either.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

SJH may now want to ponder if he should bleach out his urine stains.

I usually just use Tide To Go.