641 replies to this topic

[JMDurron]

We need one more offensive explosion in one of the next two games to survive. I wish I felt confident that it would happen. That explosion is needed in order to save some bullpen arms for the other game and/or a 1-game playoff. The only good news is that the offense got enough men on base last night to strand them all, so there may have just been some bad luck in terms of the clustering of hits/walks. If guys are seeing the ball well, that bodes well for the next two games.

It may not matter with this miserable pitching, though. Bedard or Bust.

[John DiFool]

BBPro has them at 83%. 83 fucking percent.

[FanSinceBoggs]

Technically Jim the playoff odds say that they still have a 63.4% of making it, while Tampa Bay has a 36.6% chance.

They are not yet "gone" because "gone" means they have no chance of making it. They have two games left.

I would say that the playoff odds are now easily below 50% when you factor in the downward spiral that the Red Sox are on.

The idea that the Red Sox have a 63.4 chance, and the Rays a mere 36.6 chance, sounds so absurd and counterintuitive to me.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

BBPro has them at 83%. 83 fucking percent.

Which just goes to show that BPro's metric is total fucking nonsense.

[Rudy Pemberton]

On the bright side, no one will ever cite the "playoff odds" percentages again.

[RingoOSU]

BBPro has them at 83%. 83 fucking percent.

BBPro also has them up a game on the rays still.

[RingoOSU]

On the bright side, no one will ever cite the "playoff odds" percentages again.

They will when they'll talk about epic collapses.

[JMDurron]

I would say that the playoff odds are now easily below 50% when you factor in the downward spiral that the Red Sox are on.

The idea that the Red Sox have a 63.4 chance, and the Rays a mere 36.6 chance, sounds so absurd and counterintuitive to me.

It certainly feels that way, but take a step back and look at the matchups.

Rays vs Yankees x2
Red Sox vs Orioles x2, with Bedard and Lester pitching those games for the Sox.

Any kind of playoff odds generator, if it factors in matchups and/or strength of schedule, is going to give the Red Sox a greater than 50% chance to win more games than the Rays. We've watched the horrifying collapse for the past month, so we have irrational expectations that the odds are roughly 1.35% instead of 50% or 60%, but for any non-emotional evaluation, it's not hard to see the Sox having odds as high as 63.4%. I think we're actually at a 50/50 coin flip because the Red Sox level of play cancels out the level of competition being faced, Youk is hurt, and the recent performances of Bedard (small sample), and Lester (WHAT THE FUCK DUDE?) make it seem like 40-45% is also reasonable.

83% is just fucking absurd, though.

[BigMike]

It certainly feels that way, but take a step back and look at the matchups.

Rays vs Yankees x2
Red Sox vs Orioles x2, with Bedard and Lester pitching those games for the Sox.

Any kind of playoff odds generator, if it factors in matchups and/or strength of schedule, is going to give the Red Sox a greater than 50% chance to win more games than the Rays. We've watched the horrifying collapse for the past month, so we have irrational expectations that the odds are roughly 1.35% instead of 50% or 60%, but for any non-emotional evaluation, it's not hard to see the Sox having odds as high as 63.4%. I think we're actually at a 50/50 coin flip because the Red Sox level of play cancels out the level of competition being faced, Youk is hurt, and the recent performances of Bedard (small sample), and Lester (WHAT THE FUCK DUDE?) make it seem like 40-45% is also reasonable.

83% is just fucking absurd, though.

And the real problem is that when assessing the numbers you have an Orioles team that is going to play their best lineup the next 2 nights more or less. The Yankees on the other hand are playing a spring training split squad lineup (as they did on Sunday against the Sox as well)

[Savin Hillbilly]

It certainly feels that way, but take a step back and look at the matchups.

Rays vs Yankees x2

Tonight: Hellickson vs. Colon (who has reverted to fat corpse mode)
Tomorrow night: Price vs. TBA

Yeah, that's very comforting. Thanks.

[yecul]

On the bright side, no one will ever cite the "playoff odds" percentages again.

They will when things are going well and the odds look upon them favorably.

Despite the odds remaining high you don't see them referenced now that they're playing badly. Just a week or two ago they were thrown in SJH's face as he gave a correct and accurate take on the team playing in the field. Helps to watch the games and pick up on this stuff rather than stare at a % generator. SJH sure saw this coming like a freight train.

[Doctor G]

Tonight: Hellickson vs. Colon (who has reverted to fat corpse mode)
Tomorrow night: Price vs. TBA

Yeah, that's very comforting. Thanks.

Colon's last start was the night after the Yankees clinched. I expect him to be better tonight as right now he has replaced Burnett as the leading candidate to be left off the ALDS roster. Tonight should also be the final tuneup for Soriano Robertson and Mariano.

Wednesday is a different story.

[Manramsclan]

I would say that the playoff odds are now easily below 50% when you factor in the downward spiral that the Red Sox are on.

The idea that the Red Sox have a 63.4 chance, and the Rays a mere 36.6 chance, sounds so absurd and counterintuitive to me.

My post was sarcasm.

When I said the team was done up thread I was castigated and the rest of my post was ignored. It was the easiest point to rebuke by saying, "well, the definition of 'done' is....".

I did say it five games ago, but the point remains: With the injuries to the starting pitchers and the underperformance of the offense and defense, this did not look like a team capable of winning enough games. Statistically, the probabilities pointed to an approximately 80% chance, but the way the team was playing they were not showing an ability to repeat their past performance. (Except for Lackey whose past performance was a big ball of suck. It bears mentioning that he was the only one who actually didn't stay true to his past performance and pitched well.)

There is a problem on relying on these playoff odds in the context of a small sample of games. There were 10 games left a week ago, and all this team had to do was win 3 or 4 out of 8 and they likely would've clinched. They showed no signs of doing so in the games immediately leading up to those games. They won 2. Sometimes you just have to believe your eyes.

*cue people reminding me that they have two games left*

[Batman Likes The Sox]

Well people probably ignored you because no matter how down we all feel, most of us understand that the team is not "done" until they actually play the games and either move on or get eliminated.

Winter is coming. But there is still a chance the Sox will play on.

[smastroyin]

Congratulations, you were right.

Being right on SoSH and $10 might get you a handy in Revere.

[SMU_Sox]

You said games were win or go home when they weren't. Don't hold it against us, Cassandra, that you used a sports cliche incorrectly.

[John DiFool]

Apparently BBPro made a mistake this morning-they now have the Sox @55%.

[Al Zarilla]

Congratulations, you were right.

Being right on SoSH and $10 might get you a handy in Revere.

$10! That's pretty severe. Some called it Severe Beach when I lived back there. Any more?

[Section15Box113]

Wow. From Nate Silver on 538 today.








Fivethirtyeight blog

Edited by Section15Box113, 27 September 2011 - 12:49 PM.

[Todd Benzinger]

Wow. It feels so right to back up there with the Cubs in a most pathetic of all time list.

Really I thought that it just felt like the worst collapse ever. But it is really so.

[Soxfan in Fla]

This collapse has featured everything from injuries (and a ton of them), to choking performances (Lester and Bard's 3 game gag job come to mind), to Papi pushing the panic button publicly 2 weeks ago (nice leadership asshat), to numerous bizarre plays (last nights 3 run ITP HR by Andino just one of seemingly many).

The Rays throw two young studs in Price and Hellickson vs. the Yanks spring training squad. The Sox throw Bedard (recovering from injury) and Lester (shit the bed all month) against an O's team that is playing full bore and relishing the spoiler role. With the way the Sox have played in September I would be shocked if this even makes game 163. This team is cooked physically and mentally.

The worst part of it is that the media will never let it die. We killed all the garbage of 1918, 1978, Babe, Bucky, Buckner, Boone, etc. with 2004. 2011 will match the Yanks 2004 and will be brought up early and often. I'm sure CHB will pen some crap book titled The Curse of Papi's Panic or some such garbage and make a mint on the idiots that fall for that junk hook line and sinker.

This just sucks.

[joe dokes]

Funny how the '78 Yankees never get enough credit for frittering away a 3.5 game lead with 15 to go.

[BucketOBalls]

This collapse has featured everything from injuries (and a ton of them), to choking performances (Lester and Bard's 3 game gag job come to mind), to Papi pushing the panic button publicly 2 weeks ago (nice leadership asshat), to numerous bizarre plays (last nights 3 run ITP HR by Andino just one of seemingly many).

The Rays throw two young studs in Price and Hellickson vs. the Yanks spring training squad. The Sox throw Bedard (recovering from injury) and Lester (shit the bed all month) against an O's team that is playing full bore and relishing the spoiler role. With the way the Sox have played in September I would be shocked if this even makes game 163. This team is cooked physically and mentally.

The worst part of it is that the media will never let it die. We killed all the garbage of 1918, 1978, Babe, Bucky, Buckner, Boone, etc. with 2004. 2011 will match the Yanks 2004 and will be brought up early and often. I'm sure CHB will pen some crap book titled The Curse of Papi's Panic or some such garbage and make a mint on the idiots that fall for that junk hook line and sinker.

This just sucks.

This season is doomed anyway. It's basicly impossible for the Rays to lose to Scranton-Willkes-Barre. So best case for the Sox is a 1- game playoff. An even if they win, they have no chance in the ALDS with this pitching staff in disarray.

[Rudy Pemberton]

At this point, getting to the playoffs will be a major accomplishment and something to be proud of, IMO. Win tomorrow, and if the Rays win too, well go to Tampa and see what happens. If they don't make the playoffs, so be it...but if they do get it, they have a chance even if they have to start Wakefield, Lackey, Miller, whoever. Stranger things have happened (like this month). And hell, once the calendar flips to October, who knows.

[JakeRae]

Win tomorrow. After that, anything can happen.

[Pozo the Clown]

This season is doomed anyway.

No, it's not.

It's basicly impossible for the Rays to lose to Scranton-Willkes-Barre.

No, it's not.

So best case for the Sox is a 1- game playoff. An even if they win, they have no chance in the ALDS with this pitching staff in disarray.

Strike three!!! This is baseball!!! If being a Sox fan teaches you anything, it's that nothing is a given in baseball. Chill...and enjoy what may well be a very wild (and hopefully prolonged) ride!

[JimD]

I'll start enjoying the ride again when this team shows me they can actually win two games in a row.

[glennhoffmania]

I'll start enjoying the ride again when this team shows me they can actually win two games in a row.

Same here, but I'm remarkably calm right now all things considered. I'm looking forward to tonight's game but I'm not freaking out like I would've if this was 2003 or 2004. Maybe 2004 changed everything or maybe I'm just getting old.

[JMDurron]

Same here, but I'm remarkably calm right now all things considered. I'm looking forward to tonight's game but I'm not freaking out like I would've if this was 2003 or 2004. Maybe 2004 changed everything or maybe I'm just getting old.

Same here. I think it's both in my case (2004 and aging), because the stakes on the franchise level are somewhat lower due to 2004, and each particular game/season is a little less important to my sense of well-being as I get older.

[JimD]

I'm not freaking out because my expectations are so low right now. After the last month, the idea that they will suddenly outplay the Rays over the next two days just doesn't doesn't seem very likely at all.

[Pozo the Clown]

...the idea that they will suddenly outplay the Rays over the next two days just doesn't doesn't seem very likely at all.

They don't have to. They need to outplay the Baltimore Glory Holes tonite. And, if the Price is Wrong tonite in the Trop, that will be all they need to do. Beat Buck's boys tonite and worst case scenario, they need to outplay the Rays once. One game. In one game, ANYTHING can happen.

[NJ Fan]

One of the NYY beat reporters just told me that Girardi is going with the kiddie corp lineup tonight on offense. I had heard that yesterday but thought I heard that Cash/Girardi were re-thinking that. Can't seem to find that quote anywhere though. Did anyone else see that (i.e., using some of their regulars)?

[BucketOBalls]

Coolstandings has the Sox at a 59.1% for the postseason and Tampa Bay at 40.9. Can anyone explain that? I would expect it to be the other way around since a 1 game playoff would be at the Trop.

[Dogman2]

Coolstandings has the Sox at a 59.1% for the postseason and Tampa Bay at 40.9. Can anyone explain that? I would expect it to be the other way around since a 1 game playoff would be at the Trop.

Why are you even looking at these? These odds are virtually worthless.

[Gene Conleys Plane Ticket]

Same here, but I'm remarkably calm right now all things considered. I'm looking forward to tonight's game but I'm not freaking out like I would've if this was 2003 or 2004. Maybe 2004 changed everything or maybe I'm just getting old.

This is pretty much how I feel. Well, hopefully not the "getting old" part. But as badly as I want the Red Sox to get through this successfully, I'm just not losing sleep over it. Before 2004 and definitely before 2007, I did, in fact, lose sleep over this sort of thing.

I can understand how to younger fans who haven't been through the wars and don't quite grasp the full significance of '04/'07 tonight feels like life and death. Mostly death. But for me, somehow, it seems important and I'll be very bummed if they lose tonight and the Rays win, but it's not the end of the world.

[NJ Fan]

Just saw this on ESPN New York Blog

Note: this is speculation by columnist Wallace Matthews...

Even though he still has not named a starting pitcher, Joe Girardi has said he will respect the integrity of the playoff process and send his regular lineup out against Rays ace David Price. Since Price is a lefty, that probably means:

Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Mark Teixeira 1B*
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B*
Nick Swisher RF
Jesus Montero DH
Russell Martin C
Brett Gardner LF

[glennhoffmania]

Just saw this on ESPN New York Blog

Note: this is speculation by columnist Wallace Matthews...

Even though he still has not named a starting pitcher, Joe Girardi has said he will respect the integrity of the playoff process and send his regular lineup out against Rays ace David Price. Since Price is a lefty, that probably means:

Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Mark Teixeira 1B*
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B*
Nick Swisher RF
Jesus Montero DH
Russell Martin C
Brett Gardner LF

Bullshit. They decided that they'd rather face Boston in the ALCS than Tampa.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Coolstandings has the Sox at a 59.1% for the postseason and Tampa Bay at 40.9. Can anyone explain that? I would expect it to be the other way around since a 1 game playoff would be at the Trop.

Probably based on the fact that the Sox are playing a last place team, so the odds of winning are better than that of the Rays, playing a first place team.

[dcmissle]

A "terrible cost with major unforseen consequences well beyond this year". Such as? I don't see what you mean.

bump

[tims4wins]

This is fun

[dcmissle]

A "terrible cost with major unforseen consequences well beyond this year". Such as? I don't see what you mean.

With the second shoe dropping, one more bump for old times' sake.

Something we learned, I think, is that this organization is not nearly as stable, thoughtful, mature and sensible as so many of us believed.

What the organization will learn, in time, is that this changed everything. With the exception of a few players who might be counted on one hand and certainly two, nobody associated with the RS will get the benefit of the doubt anymore. Once well earned, it has been lost and is now undeserved.

Can we lock this now?

[jon abbey]

You got it.