641 replies to this topic

[Rasputin]

There's a lot of worrying going on so I thought I would take y'all's temperature.

How likely is it that the Sox are going to make the playoffs?

[Snodgrass'Muff]

BP's playoff odds tracker has the team at 99.3% likely to make the playoffs with a 23.1% chance to win the division. I think the playoffs odds are pretty spot on. Even injured as they are, it would take an enormous collapse to miss the playoffs at this point. Really, winning one of the next two games puts Tampa out of it.

I think the division is a more interesting question. It's certainly not probable at this point, but considering the Yankees will be playing Tampa so much right down at the wire, there's an interesting window of opportunity there.

I'm of the mind that winning the division doesn't mean too much to their title hopes, but winning the division always feels good from a fan's perspective.

[Al Zarilla]

BP's playoff odds tracker has the team at 99.3% likely to make the playoffs with a 23.1% chance to win the division. I think the playoffs odds are pretty spot on. Even injured as they are, it would take an enormous collapse to miss the playoffs at this point. Really, winning one of the next two games puts Tampa out of it.

I think the division is a more interesting question. It's certainly not probable at this point, but considering the Yankees will be playing Tampa so much right down at the wire, there's an interesting window of opportunity there.

I'm of the mind that winning the division doesn't mean too much to their title hopes, but winning the division always feels good from a fan's perspective.

Ha, right now, BP Playoff Odds has the Phillies at all zeroes, including simulated season wins.

4 Philadelphia Phillies .000 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

[radsoxfan]

BP's playoff odds tracker has the team at 99.3% likely to make the playoffs with a 23.1% chance to win the division. I think the playoffs odds are pretty spot on. Even injured as they are, it would take an enormous collapse to miss the playoffs at this point. Really, winning one of the next two games puts Tampa out of it.

I think the division is a more interesting question. It's certainly not probable at this point, but considering the Yankees will be playing Tampa so much right down at the wire, there's an interesting window of opportunity there.

I'm of the mind that winning the division doesn't mean too much to their title hopes, but winning the division always feels good from a fan's perspective.

Not sure what method BP uses, but ESPN has the Sox with a 95.9% chance of making the playoffs. I'm assuming that doesn't include the fact that the team has no idea what to expect from Beckett, Bedard, and Youk down the stretch.

I still think the Sox will make it, but after "devaluing" the team's chances a bit due to the injury bug, putting the odds at around 90% doesn't seem unreasonable to me.

[mwonow]

I hit 80-89 by mistake - I was trying to bump up to 90-94. I'm with Rad, though - "about 90" seems "about right" to me. This is a very good team overall, but it's prone to hot and cold spells - and the current cold spell, plus the injuries, makes the "real odds" less than the book odds, imo.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I think it really depends on the health of Beckett and Bedard, obviously. A team that is reguarly starting Wakefield, Miller, Lackey, and Weiland could quite easily lose a bunch of games in a row, as it is in the process of doing. My head knows the math and knows the improbable nature of blowing this lead; but lots of improbable things happen in sports (esp. to the Red Sox, perhaps). If the Sox leave Tampa up just 3 in the loss column, than I think anything is possible. This rotation is currently starting some pretty terrible pitchers, and I tend to think the offense is pressing because they know these guys suck.

[snowmanny]

I know what the BP odds are. But having lived through the epic collapse of 1974 - the Sox were 7 games up with a week to go in August and went 2-11 to fall 1.5 games out of first*- I can't put the number much above 90%. Sometimes teams just do fall apart, but I doubt it happens here.

* They went 7-19 and by then were in third place hopelessly out of it. The 1974 disaster is often forgotten given the 1978, 1986 and 2003 debacles, but was pretty miserable.

[dcmissle]

The 1970s were a decade of high highs and low lows. In the latter category, Earl Weaver and Co. routinely hunted the RS down like dogs during August and September -- and worse, Earl told us it would happen before it happened. One reason. Pitching.

Edited by dcmissle, 10 September 2011 - 08:54 PM.

[snowmanny]

The 1970s were a decade of high highs and low lows. In the latter category, Earl Weaver and Co. rountinely hunted the RS down like dogs during August and September -- and worse, Earl told us it would happen before it happened. One reason. Pitching.

To amplify this point, the 2-11 slump in 1974 included three straight shutouts at the hands of the O's, including 1-0 losses in both ends of a doubleheader.

[yecul]

The formula has changed a bit as the Red Sox expected win% of a few months or even weeks ago was quite different than that of the current version. This is a vastly poorer team due to the rotation. They have a #1 and a bunch of guys who should go back to little league to remember what dominance was like.

We're still talking a huge % to make the playoffs, but would 5-7 wins the rest of the way be terribly surprising?

The margin of error is slimmer than what the projections say. Healthy this team steamrolls. They ain't healthy.

[Plympton91]

If the Red Sox win 40 percent of their remaining games, they'll have gotten very lucky.

[sibpin]

I'll copy what I have to say from another thread about BP's playoff odds and adjust for the last 24 hours:

Just doing some back of the envelope math - assuming the Red Sox and Rays are equal matches (they aren't - the Sox should be favored as the better team and with more home games), let's pretend the Sox-Rays series are played out over the next 4 days, and for simplicity, the Angels play 5 games (including tonight) against anyone on their remaining schedule other than the Yankees or Rangers. The odds of the Rays winning the 4 remaining head-to-head games is 6%, which would put the Rays half a game behind the Sox. Worst case is that they're a half game up of the Angels - so somewhere just below a 33% chance of making the playoffs. This means we've already got the Rays at slightly under a 2% chance at making the playoffs and we haven't even considered the 97% of the other permutations of the Sox-Rays games or all the permutations of the Angels games in the Rays sweep condition. My rough estimate is that the odds of the Rays or Angels taking the wild card are somewhere around 4-10%, which means the Red Sox and Yankees have to add up to 196% or worse, and of course, the Yankees are going to have better odds than the Red Sox.

So I have a hard time seeing where the BP system comes up with something above 98% tomorrow. If they're at 99.2% going into today, I don't think they can possibly open at lower than 98% tomorrow since Sox-Rays in Tampa has to be a game the Rays win somewhere around 50% of the time. And given my back of the envelope calculation, 98%+ for the Sox as of tomorrow morning seems pretty inaccurate to me.

I have the Sox at about 92% at this moment, with tomorrow's game being worth approximately 6% in "Playoff Probability Added" - I have them at 85% with a loss and 96% with a win.

I know what the BP odds are. But having lived through the epic collapse of 1974 - the Sox were 7 games up with a week to go in August and went 2-11 to fall 1.5 games out of first*- I can't put the number much above 90%. Sometimes teams just do fall apart, but I doubt it happens here.

Coolstandings reports that the '74 Sox squandered an 86% chance of making the playoffs.

If the Red Sox win 40 percent of their remaining games, they'll have gotten very lucky.

Care to place a wager on that for the Jimmy Fund?

Edited by sibpin, 10 September 2011 - 10:23 PM.

[yecul]

The real issue is that they look to have zero chance of actually doing anything. Missing the playoffs or getting booted out right away... who cares? They need to get healthy quick and get out of the funk at the same time.

[Paul M]

I could see the Sox going 8-9 the rest of the way as a baseline estimate

2-3 vs Tampa
1-1 vs Toronto
4-3 vs Baltimore
1-2 vs NY

Tampa maybe is a 11-7 team the rest of the way on average

3-2 vs Boston
2-1 vs Toronto
2-1 vs Baltimore
4-3 vs NY

I give the Sox an 80% chance to make it since I would think anything less than the above is worse than a reasonable bad-case outcome. But, one game less for us or better for Tampa translates into a play-in game.

[Fratboy]

I constructed this chain of thought before tonight's debacle, but here we go:

* If the Red Sox failed to make the playoffs, this would, by CoolStandings and BP, rank as the 3rd biggest collapse of all time (behind 1995 Calfornia Angels and either 2007 Mets or 1951 Dodgers depending on which method you prefer, I think). BP had them at 100% a week ago IIRC.

* The WORST 18 game stretch the Sox had played this year was at the beginning of the year, and they went 8-10. In every other 18 game stretch, they've played .500 ball.

* The BEST 19 games stretch the Rays have played this year is 14-5, which they've done on 3 occasions.

* For the Rays and Sox to even TIE, the Rays will have to play their best baseball for the remainder of the season (simply in terms of winning games, forget about pyth, SOS blah blah blah) AND the Red Sox will have to play their worst baseball. Throw in common games against the Yankees, and I just really do not see it happening. The possibility is slim, but it exists. FTR, I voted 90-94%, but the season only gets played once.

If the Sox fail to make they playoffs, by golly, they'll have EARNED it.

[JimD]

* The WORST 18 game stretch the Sox had played this year was at the beginning of the year, and they went 8-10. In every other 18 game stretch, they've played .500 ball.

The Red Sox have also gone 8-10 in their last 18 games, and that's with the benefit of a 6-2 stretch at the start of this craptastic run.

[Al Zarilla]

I constructed this chain of thought before tonight's debacle, but here we go:

* If the Red Sox failed to make the playoffs, this would, by CoolStandings and BP, rank as the 3rd biggest collapse of all time (behind 1995 Calfornia Angels and either 2007 Mets or 1951 Dodgers depending on which method you prefer, I think). BP had them at 100% a week ago IIRC.

* The WORST 18 game stretch the Sox had played this year was at the beginning of the year, and they went 8-10. In every other 18 game stretch, they've played .500 ball.

* The BEST 19 games stretch the Rays have played this year is 14-5, which they've done on 3 occasions.

* For the Rays and Sox to even TIE, the Rays will have to play their best baseball for the remainder of the season (simply in terms of winning games, forget about pyth, SOS blah blah blah) AND the Red Sox will have to play their worst baseball. Throw in common games against the Yankees, and I just really do not see it happening. The possibility is slim, but it exists. FTR, I voted 90-94%, but the season only gets played once.

If the Sox fail to make they playoffs, by golly, they'll have EARNED it.

Nice post. The 1964 Phillies had a 6.5 game lead with 12 to play and lost 10 straight to give it to St Louis. I don't know how that doesn't beat all. Maybe CoolStandings and BP's algorithms require a minimum number of games to be up to qualify and 6.5 is under that. Whatever, I don't want the Sox to be in any of those blown race conversations. I'd have to put the major blame on injuries, but, whatever, it would be maddening if it were to happen.

[bob burda]

I too lived through '74 - it was bizarre. One minute the team is given permission to print playoff tickets, and about two weeks later they are playing out the string....with two kids named Lynn and Rice playing everyday to see how they might look against big league competition.

'78 was like one of those action movies where the hero keeps getting up and finding ways to fight back - only to be killed by a fluke ricochet bullet at the end. '74 was an action film with a hero in apparent good health suddenly having a brain aneurysm 80 min. in - with the last 10 minutes of film being a modest psychological study about the effect of the hero's death on his country, next of kin etc. It was really like "how did we get here? - and how did it happen so fast?"

There isn't an apt Sox comparison for what we might be watching....1990 maybe, but with a bad result? I think the Mets experience is the only similar one.

....of course if they win tomorrow, we can stop this talk.

[Rasputin]

I think it really depends on the health of Beckett and Bedard, obviously. A team that is reguarly starting Wakefield, Miller, Lackey, and Weiland could quite easily lose a bunch of games in a row, as it is in the process of doing. My head knows the math and knows the improbable nature of blowing this lead; but lots of improbable things happen in sports (esp. to the Red Sox, perhaps). If the Sox leave Tampa up just 3 in the loss column, than I think anything is possible. This rotation is currently starting some pretty terrible pitchers, and I tend to think the offense is pressing because they know these guys suck.

Am I the only one that heard Heidi report during tonight's game that Bedard would just be missing the one start and that Beckett threw a bunch today and felt good and was just waiting for clearance to start next weekend?

'Cause I'm pretty sure I heard that.

[Al Zarilla]

Am I the only one that heard Heidi report during tonight's game that Bedard would just be missing the one start and that Beckett threw a bunch today and felt good and was just waiting for clearance to start next weekend?

'Cause I'm pretty sure I heard that.

Where does Beckett's clearance have to come from, the President or the Pope?

[Rasputin]

Where does Beckett's clearance have to come from, the President or the Pope?

I think clearance is actually a bad description. Here's what was said on redsox.com

It isn't out of the realm of possibility that Beckett could throw a bullpen session by the middle of next week and make his next start towards the weekend.

"I think it sounds reasonable, but like I said, it's not my decision," Beckett said. "It's going to kind of be up to them. Obviously they're going to have my input. I'm ready to come back whenever it feels good."

However, Beckett did emphasize that he needs to be smart with the injury. To come back too soon would be counterproductive.

"I'm hoping this isn't a question mark. It needs to be 100 percent or at least close to 100 percent whenever I come back, because it makes everybody look foolish if you go back out there and you hurt it five pitches in," said Beckett. "I don't think we're going to do that. We're going to test it off the mound first and figure stuff out."

I pretty much think both Bedard and Beckett are pitching in the next series against the Rays.

[JimBoSox9]

As of right now, 18 members are either total nannies or just trolling. To legitimately believe the Sox have a less than 80% chance to make the playoffs is a belief that employs no math or logic that I'm aware of.

[Fratboy]

The Red Sox have also gone 8-10 in their last 18 games, and that's with the benefit of a 6-2 stretch at the start of this craptastic run.

A correction to my first post: they started 7-11. Of greater immediate concern is this stretch (before tonight's game), was the 18 game stretch in which they've allowed the most runs to score. They've still managed to outscore their opponents though, which is a little encouraging.

Hopefully we look back at this in two weeks and laugh. Or cry. And wonder why the Pats are 0-2.

[Rasputin]

And wonder why the Pats are 0-2.

John Lackey.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I constructed this chain of thought before tonight's debacle, but here we go:

* If the Red Sox failed to make the playoffs, this would, by CoolStandings and BP, rank as the 3rd biggest collapse of all time (behind 1995 Calfornia Angels and either 2007 Mets or 1951 Dodgers depending on which method you prefer, I think). BP had them at 100% a week ago IIRC.

* The WORST 18 game stretch the Sox had played this year was at the beginning of the year, and they went 8-10. In every other 18 game stretch, they've played .500 ball.

* The BEST 19 games stretch the Rays have played this year is 14-5, which they've done on 3 occasions.

* For the Rays and Sox to even TIE, the Rays will have to play their best baseball for the remainder of the season (simply in terms of winning games, forget about pyth, SOS blah blah blah) AND the Red Sox will have to play their worst baseball. Throw in common games against the Yankees, and I just really do not see it happening. The possibility is slim, but it exists. FTR, I voted 90-94%, but the season only gets played once.

If the Sox fail to make they playoffs, by golly, they'll have EARNED it.

The Sox are pretty much playing their worst baseball now, though. 3-9 in their last 12.

They've set themselves up nicely to collapse, if they're actually going to make a run at it. Exactly 1 starting pitcher worth a crap, injuries up and down the rotation and lineup, and the sudden implosion of one of their best relievers. They've got a decent chance to blow that lead because the starters are leaving the team in a 6-0 hole by the 3rd inning all the time.

90%? That's exceedingly optimistic. BPro odds assume the team is the same one that's gotten them to this point: with all the injuries they are clearly not. I'd guess there's about a 20-25% chance they blow the whole thing. Beckett and Bedard don't have return dates yet, meaning yet more of the Andrew Miller Line Drive Experience.

They're in trouble. They really needed to win one of those close games in Toronto to take some of the pressure off: they couldn't do it. And last night they came back in the 9th and still lost the game. They can't do anything right. And given their ineptitude with RISP last night, I'd say the players are feeling that pressure.

[scotian1]

This article makes me feel very uneasy in some of the similarities that existed with that team and this one.
http://articles.phil...-collapse-phils

[dcmissle]

This article makes me feel very uneasy in some of the similarities that existed with that team and this one.
http://articles.phil...-collapse-phils

Truly the mother of all collapses, which spawned literature that rivals that on the Kennedy assassination: http://sabr.org/drupal/node/3016

One difference between the current situation and that one. With two SPs (and future RS, Dennis Bennett and Ray Culp) sidelined, Mauch pitched future Senator Bunning and Chris Short twice each on 2 days rest (3 days rest was the norm then) down the stretch. Tito, of course, has not (and will probably never) do that, preserving rest for our one reliable guy and throwing the cannon fodder out there as scheduled. A different outcome dictates the RS cashing in on the Lester starts, hopefully continuing today.

As Ras points out, we also have the hope of Beckett and Bedard righting the ship.

[irinmike]

All the probability math in the world can be trotted out to make every Sox fan feel a bit better, but we all know this is our Red Sox we are talking about. They are perfectly capable of collapsing, as they have done so often in September's past. Sure you can use mathematical logic, and how this team is better then any of those that collapsed in past Septembers. However logic has seldom been the norm when it comes to the Sox and September. One thing is clear, after feeling as if we would cruise into the playoff tournament, now we will ring our hands and peek at scores throughout the month. Welcome to Red Sox baseball!

[tims4wins]

As of right now, 18 members are either total nannies or just trolling. To legitimately believe the Sox have a less than 80% chance to make the playoffs is a belief that employs no math or logic that I'm aware of.

Not trolling. I think there is a 20-25% chance they don't make it. A lot hinges on today. Lose today with the only quality starting pitcher we have and the path to blowing it becomes real. Win today and restore the lead to 5.5 with 16 to play and I'll feel a lot better.

Very interesting that the MFY have also lost 4 in a row right now... and it's totally under the radar cuz of the Sox situation.

Edited by tims4wins, 11 September 2011 - 10:12 AM.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Welcome to Red Sox baseball!

How do previous Red Sox teams that collapsed have anything to do with this year's chances? I suppose you'll be arguing that the curse was real to as your next trick?

Christ, this isn't a game thread.

[kartvelo]

Sounds like several SoShers still believe in curses.

If the Sox don't make the playoffs, it'll be because they were hit with injuries and slumps at an inopportune time and because there are several very good teams close to them in the standings that played well enough in the right combinations.

The odds are very good that they'll make the playoffs. If they find themselves in the playoffs with one reliable healthy starter, two reliable healthy relievers, a slumping offense, and a generally worn down team, they likely won't last long.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think all the 80+-% logic ignores the very real reason why they're currently slumping, which is that their pitching has unraveled. We currently have only one starting pitcher whose health and ability to keep the team in the game can both be relied on over the next three weeks. Besides him, we have two capable guys nursing injuries that we are told are minor, but we still don't know exactly what to expect from them. And then we have the $16M Suck, the Snakebit Veteran, the Post-Hype Nightmare, and the Overmatched Kid (did I leave anybody out?). Not a recipe for a whole lot of winning, unless the offense can carry them.

Math? Logic? Here's the math: They go 6-11 the rest of the way, TB only has to go 11-7 to tie them. I don't think that's the most likely scenario (otherwise I'd have chosen <50%). But it's way too plausible, given the pitching situation, for all these 80-100% votes to make sense to me. Maybe 60-69% was too pessimistic, but I think anything above 70-79% is just whistling in the dark.

[Rudy Pemberton]

If the Sox don't make the playoffs, it'll be because they were hit with injuries and slumps at an inopportune time and because there are several very good teams close to them in the standings that played well enough in the right combinations.

Eh, perhaps...but the horrific performances of highly paid players like Lackey & Crawford (and the crappy & injury shortened seasons from Drew & Matsuzaka) would be a key factor, as well as the complete inability of depth pitching to provide anything down the stretch. If the Sox manage to blow this, which they certainly shouldn't, there will be a lot of blame to go around. Primary reason, is clearly the terrible pitching.

Lackey, 144 IP, 25 starts, 66 ERA+
Wakefield, 139 IP, 20 starts, 83 ERA+
Miller, 61 IP, 12 starts, 75 ERA+

Now, at least two of those guys should not have been starting so many games, but thats 57 really crappy starts; depth guys need to do better than that (and IIRC, the Sox pitching depth was lauded in the off-season, esp. in comparison to our friends from NY, who have had lousy performances from Burnett & Hughes but seen guys like Colon, Nova, and Garcia step up).

Still in the drivers seat and still time to right the ship, but there's no way, IMO, that a "they just got hit by injuries, couldn't do anything about it" defense is legitimate. Every team has injuries; don't let it be an excuse.

[kartvelo]

Eh, perhaps...but the horrific performances of highly paid players like Lackey & Crawford (and the crappy & injury shortened seasons from Drew & Matsuzaka) would be a key factor, as well as the complete inability of depth pitching to provide anything down the stretch. If the Sox manage to blow this, which they certainly shouldn't, there will be a lot of blame to go around.

Agreed, but the Sox were within striking distance of 100 wins until very recently, even with the Lackey, Crawford, Drew, and Matsuzaka issues (and with Wake pitching, too) all season long. Things have changed recently for the worse.

Every team has injuries; don't let it be an excuse.

Agreed again, just pointing out the inopportune timing of the recent injuries combined with the offensive slump during a period when they play their chief rivals for playoff spots a number of times.

Edited by kartvelo, 11 September 2011 - 10:48 AM.

[redsoxstiff]

I think it really depends on the health of Beckett and Bedard, obviously. A team that is reguarly starting Wakefield, Miller, Lackey, and Weiland could quite easily lose a bunch of games in a row, as it is in the process of doing. My head knows the math and knows the improbable nature of blowing this lead; but lots of improbable things happen in sports (esp. to the Red Sox, perhaps). If the Sox leave Tampa up just 3 in the loss column, than I think anything is possible. This rotation is currently starting some pretty terrible pitchers, and I tend to think the offense is pressing because they know these guys suck.

I agree with all of this except for the Sox having some special relationship with the improbable...

[TheoShmeo]

As of about five days ago, the Sox had one starter and three relievers who inspired confidence. Bard and, to a lesser degree, Aceves, have dropped down a level in the last week.

Now those two are probably fine and will probably show us that soon. Still, the fact remains that the Sox have exactly one starter who it's reasonable to think will keep them in games right now, one mid level reliever who is good (but who tends to go long innings and therefore needs to be used sparingly) and two end of game guys who are often not factors given the absolute shit in the starting rotation other than Lester.

Pitching wins.

Given that, how can anyone be confident that this team isn't in jeopardy?

[ToeKneeArmAss]

Clearly your response depends on how good you think the Red Sox and Rays are right now.

My subjective assessment, obviously colored by being a Red Sox fan for 44+ years, is that the Sox are intrinsically a .450 team right now, and the Rays are intrinsically a .600 team. (Don't ask me to defend this - I can't.)

If my subjective sense were true, then if you Monte Carlo'd that til it's stable (I did it 100,000 times), you get the Red Sox reaching the playoffs 72% of the time.

The table below shows the % of time the Red Sox reach the playoffs under several other combinations of intrinsic winning percentages (with my assessment highlighted).



Strangely, doing this calculation actually made me feel better about their chances of making the playoffs - though as noted upthread, who cares if they just make it on fumes and are dispatched by Texas?

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Pitching wins.

Given that, how can anyone be confident that this team isn't in jeopardy?

Because I believe it when the Sox say that Bedard and Beckett aren't injured seriously and will come back at about as close to 100% as players can be at this point in the season. A pitching rotation of Lester, Beckett and Bedard for the last 10 or 12 days of the season is going to win often. If I thought we were looking at finishing the season with Lester and the Island of Misfit Toys, I'd be less confident. But as far as we know, we'll see both Beckett and Bedard returning soon.

[Section15Box113]

Not trolling. I think there is a 20-25% chance they don't make it. A lot hinges on today. Lose today with the only quality starting pitcher we have and the path to blowing it becomes real. Win today and restore the lead to 5.5 with 16 to play and I'll feel a lot better.

Very interesting that the MFY have also lost 4 in a row right now... and it's totally under the radar cuz of the Sox situation.

Worth remembering that 7 of TB's last 10 are against the Yankees. If we're close with both teams going into that stretch - and can take care of our own business against Baltimore - I still like our chances.

TB: BOS (1), @Bal (3), @Bos (4), @NYY (4), TOR (3), NYY (3)
BOS: @TB (1), TOR (2), TB (4), BAL (4), @NYY (3), @Bal (3)
NYY: @LAA (1), @Sea (3), @Tor (3), MIN (1), TB (4), BOS (3), @TB (3)

Incredible to say given our own troubles, but given the Yankees losses over the last few days, there are still scenarios that leave them on the outside looking in if TB beats up on them in those last two series.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Incredible to say given our own troubles, but given the Yankees losses over the last few days, there are still scenarios that leave them on the outside looking in if TB beats up on them in those last two series.

If we let TB sweep us, sweep NY, and go 5-4 vs. TOR and BAL, we finish 93-69.
If the Yankees lose all their remaining games to TB and BOS but play .500 in their other games, they finish 91-71.
If TB sweeps us and the Yankees and plays .500 in their other games, they finish 95-67.

So, yes, it's possible, but it makes the prospect of a simple Sox collapse look like money in the bank by comparison.

[TheoShmeo]

Because I believe it when the Sox say that Bedard and Beckett aren't injured seriously and will come back at about as close to 100% as players can be at this point in the season. A pitching rotation of Lester, Beckett and Bedard for the last 10 or 12 days of the season is going to win often. If I thought we were looking at finishing the season with Lester and the Island of Misfit Toys, I'd be less confident. But as far as we know, we'll see both Beckett and Bedard returning soon.

Agreed that if they come back soon, things are a lot less bleak. But with Beckett out until next weekend the earliest, and the first start back often with a limited pitch count (and sometimes limited effectiveness), and Bedard with no timetable, the rest of the rotation not named Lester could do a fair bit of damage until Beckett and Bedard are back and effective.

Edited by TheoShmeo, 11 September 2011 - 01:18 PM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

This craptastic start by Lester has to be rock bottom. Sox have lost 5 games in the standings in the past 10; and not looking good today. I dunno; the Beckett and Bedard stuff really doesn't sound very positive to me, either.

Are we at the point where the Sox should make a trade to get someone in here who can throw 6 innings and keep the team in a game?

[Plympton91]

This craptastic start by Lester has to be rock bottom. Sox have lost 5 games in the standings in the past 10; and not looking good today. I dunno; the Beckett and Bedard stuff really doesn't sound very positive to me, either.

Are we at the point where the Sox should make a trade to get someone in here who can throw 6 innings and keep the team in a game?

Only if they think Youkilis, Beckett, Bedard, and Buchholz are going to be able to contribute meaningfully in October.

By the way, how do the Pats look this year?

[TomRicardo]

This craptastic start by Lester has to be rock bottom. Sox have lost 5 games in the standings in the past 10; and not looking good today. I dunno; the Beckett and Bedard stuff really doesn't sound very positive to me, either.

Are we at the point where the Sox should make a trade to get someone in here who can throw 6 innings and keep the team in a game?

Who is available who can do that? Unless things turn around next week in short order this team is going no where.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Agreed that if they come back soon, things are a lot less bleak. But with Beckett out until next weekend the earliest, and the first start back often with a limited pitch count (and sometimes limited effectiveness), and Bedard with no timetable, the rest of the rotation not named Lester could do a fair bit of damage until Beckett and Bedard are back and effective.

Also worth pointing out that after tomorrow's day off they play 10 games in 9 days. No matter how soon Beckett and Bedard can return, they're going to need some starts from the Misfit Toys to get through that stretch--and it's a critical one.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Who is available who can do that? Unless things turn around next week in short order this team is going no where.

Kevin Millwood? Sadly, he'd be an improvement on what we've got.

So, after having blown 6 games in the standings in the last 11 games; blowing 3-4 more in the next 17 doesn't seem all that far-fetched...it's not hard to imagine a sweep at the hands of MFY or TB, is it?

Ultimately, though, better to be 3 up than 3 back, I guess.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Kevin Millwood? Sadly, he'd be an improvement on what we've got.

So, after having blown 6 games in the standings in the last 11 games; blowing 3-4 more in the next 17 doesn't seem all that far-fetched...it's not hard to imagine a sweep at the hands of MFY or TB, is it?

Ultimately, though, better to be 3 up than 3 back, I guess.

Considering that Millwood is pitching well for the Rockies, I'm going to guess he's not available.

Down big today. If they lose that will be 3-10 in their last 13. It's very easy to see them falling short of the playoffs: there's no one on the roster who can conceivably pick them up and shut down an opponent for a badly-needed win. Lackey? Wakefield? Miller? Weiland? No, no, no, and no. They all are bad pitchers who aren't going to suddenly morph into Pedro. Or even Arroyo.

Unmentioned in this collapse is the complete ineptitude of the offense to go along with the shitty starting pitching and horrific relief. This, combined with some questionable managing during the slump, really makes it a complete collapse. They all had to pull together to blow this lead, and by God they're doing it.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Down big today. If they lose that will be 3-10 in their last 13. It's very easy to see them falling short of the playoffs: there's no one on the roster who can conceivably pick them up and shut down an opponent for a badly-needed win.

At this point, there doesn't even seem to be anyone capable of providing a 6 IP, 4 R Lackey special; never mind shutting anyone down.

[bosockboy]

It seems they were fortunate to get where they were with Matsuzaka/Buchholz out for the year, and Lackey being the worst SP in baseball. That's 3/5 of your rotation being gone or a zero....it's caught up with them.

Jenk's zero didn't help either....Albers masked that problem for 3 months...but sadly that was exposed as well.

If Lackey was even remotely competent, we would have likely won 100 games and could have absorbed a short injury to Beckett like this, and Buchholz being gone. Lackey is the true culprit of the season, no doubt.

Make no mistake, we are in harm's way now. This thing is in doubt.

[RedOctober3829]

Even with all that went on in the past 10 days or so, if Jon Lester steps up and throws a good game today and the Sox win they are up 5.5 games on TB with 16 to go. This game was huge as Lester is expected to be the stopper and he completely shit the bed.