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#101 Eric Van


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Posted 31 October 2011 - 06:09 PM

A .327 Slugging makes one a prospect?

So far Gibson has shown less power than Jason Tyner. Has any major league baseball player been able to maintain a high or even league average OBP with a slugging so terribly bad?

No, a .390 OBP does. You're committing the classic Bill James error: focusing on what a player can't do rather than what he can.

Also, a prospect, in my book, is anybody with a non-zero chance of being an MLB player, even if the odds against it are 50-1 or 100-1. It's not really all that significant to say that Gibson (with a history of scouting love) is still one. It's much more significant if you declare that Michael Almaznzar, Pete Hissey, Caleb Clay, Ryan Dent, and/or David Mailman aren't any longer (as I'm just about to do).

#102 TheGoldenGreek33

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Posted 31 October 2011 - 07:47 PM

And also, if you buy the notion that power is the last thing to develop (which I do), then his second-half splits are even more encouraging. He's never really hit for power, but that didn't stop BA from putting him in their Top 10 prior to 2010 (back when the system was loaded with impact talent). He's a tremendous athlete with plus-plus speed and profiles as .360+ OBP guy.

I just don't know where he'll play...

#103 Eric Van


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Posted 31 October 2011 - 10:57 PM

And also, if you buy the notion that power is the last thing to develop (which I do), then his second-half splits are even more encouraging. He's never really hit for power, but that didn't stop BA from putting him in their Top 10 prior to 2010 (back when the system was loaded with impact talent). He's a tremendous athlete with plus-plus speed and profiles as .360+ OBP guy.


Note that his Iso dropped from .084 to .035 when he started hitting well. That suggests that the terrible start was the result of trying to hit for more power and hence getting outside of what he does best. The path forward now will be to stay with the approach that generates the high BABIP and see if he can slowly develop enough power to be an MLB regular, rather than to sell out the BABIP in search of a quick power fix.

I just don't know where he'll play...

With the skills he does have he probably projects as an Alfredo Amezaga type of sub. If that's his upside, he's not going to make anyone's top 30 list, but if that's his downside, he sure as hell should be in SP's top 60.

#104 ForceAtHome

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Posted 31 October 2011 - 11:48 PM

A .327 Slugging makes one a prospect?

So far Gibson has shown less power than Jason Tyner. Has any major league baseball player been able to maintain a high or even league average OBP with a slugging so terribly bad?


Luis Castillo fits the bill a little. In his last season in the minors, he put up the following line: .287 / .403 / .326 / .729. That's pretty similar to Gibson's second half split. Of course, Castillo's numbers came as a 22 year old in Triple-A over a full season which makes them significantly more impressive. Although Castillo was clearly ahead of Gibson at the same age, having success with a low slg and high obp isn't totally unprecedented. In 2008, Castillo managed a .355 OBP while slugging only .305.

Castillo MLB career: .290 / .368 / .351 / .719
Castillo MiLB career: .302 / .403 / .351 / .754
Gibson second half: .292 / .390 /.327 / .717

Another guy who fits, perhaps even better, is Walt Weiss. He has a season in which he managed to get on base at a clip of .403 while only slugging .321! Unlike Castillo and more like Gibson, Weiss did not develop and make his way through the minors at an accelerated pace. Weiss spent his age 21 season in A-Ball and put up the horrendous line of: .197 / .269 / .246 / .515. Of course, I'd imagine the majority of Weiss' value often came from his defense, so perhaps his offensive stats should be taken with a grain of salt.

Weiss MLB career: .258 / .351 / .326 / .677
Weiss MiLB career: .275 / .349 / .345 / .694
Gibson second half: .292 / .390 /.327 / .717

#105 djhb20

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Posted 01 November 2011 - 07:54 PM

And Lance Blankenship, who was one of my favorite Strat guys of all time, because the only thing he ever did was walk.

Career MLB: .222 / .350 / .299 / .649

Blankenship, though, had a .135 ISO in the minors, so he's not a great example. But, man, in the majors, it's hard to imagine how you can get on base 35% of the time with no ability to hit for average or power. But he managed to do it to the tune of 450+ games in the majors.

#106 alskor

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Posted 03 November 2011 - 06:35 PM

Released my top 15 piece yesterday, so I don't mind sharing here now...

  • Xander Bogaerts, SS/3B
  • Matt Barnes, RHS
  • Garin Cecchini, 3B
  • Will Middlebrooks, 3B
  • Blake Swihart, C
  • Anthony Ranaudo, RHS
  • Ryan Lavarnway, C
  • Henry Owens, LHS
  • Bryce Brentz, COF
  • Jackie Bradley, Jr., CF
  • Jose Iglesias, SS
  • Brandon Jacobs, COF
  • Felix Doubront, LHP
  • Sean Coyle, 2B
  • Brandon Workman, RHP


Al Skorupa: The strength of this system is in the lower minors - a recurring theme with the Red Sox in recent years. Bogaerts has athleticism, tremendous power and the star potential that comes along with those things. Bogaerts, Cecchini and Swihart really stick out in terms of impact tools. Barnes has the velocity and stuff to be a #2 starter in the bigs but will only go as far as his command. Middlebrooks put up some impressive numbers this year but I see him as more of a solid MLB regular. He has good pop in his bat and should be a good enough defender at 3B but his approach could limit him. Ranaudoís inconsistent stuff holds him back from a higher ranking but his ceiling isnít far off that of Barnes. Lavarnway's defensive tools are subpar, but I increasingly believe he can catch in the big leagues some. The bat speed isnít great, but heís a patient hitter with power who makes adjustments. Owens could have been a top 15 pick in many years. Brentz showed me something this year but that much swing and miss scares me. Iím worried he could be exposed at higher levels. Bradley could be a fast riser if he continues to show the tools that made him arguably the best player in the college game in 2009-2010. I absolutely loved Bostonís draft this year. Iglesias will surprise some with the bat in 2012 though I donít see him ever becoming a ďgoodĒ hitter. AAA was a very aggressive assignment for him, which was necessary so he couldnít cruise on his natural contact abilities. Doubront and Workman look like solid middle rotation types.

The full article w/ Jeff Reese's list and comments: http://bullpenbanter...icles&Itemid=11

I didn't give in depth player by player breakdowns since they'll be discussed in depth when we release our top 100 and positional lists, but I'll add on to this my next 10 w/some thoughts:

  • Raul Alcantara - Just a projectable Dominican live arm type, but I'm a sucker for those. Would like to see him fill in and improve his mechanics, command & secondaries.
  • Henry Ramos - Some of the better tools in the system. Lot of raw power. For someone who grew up playing soccer, I find his BB:K as one of the youngest guys on the Greenville roster fairly encouraging.
  • Madison Younginer - Really impressed with his raw stuff but probably fits best in the pen because of his long arm action and inconsistent release point (on top of a few other issues). Even in the pen he's a back end RP type with some tough stuff. I'll eventually get around to editing this video, but still haven't yet.
  • Kyle Weiland - Set up man or potential back end SP with some of the same negatives as Younginer. Behind Younginer because of a) age/less development left; and b) Weiland is really a 2 pitch guy while Younginer showed me some filthy fades (albeit he couldn't command them most of the time). Younginer has the edge on stuff.
  • Lars Anderson - I've discussed him on these boards a number of times, but to recap - still has lots of raw power, still has a patient approach, still moves better than you'd assume/is quite nimble and still doesn't attack pitches in the strike zone. He's just way too passive hitter and that's what holds him back. I could see him finally putting it together around age 27-30 and ending up a solidly useful player. Projections of stardom are far behind him (platoon problems, too). He showed some improvements in the 2nd half and I'm encouraged enough to keep him this high for now.
  • Cody Kukuk - Your typical projectable prep lefty. He's got some mechanical things to work on.
  • Noe Ramirez - College righty with average velo and a nasty CU. Probably a back end starter, but there could be more here. Fun guy to watch in college.
  • Oscar Tejeda - Kind of baffling to watch. Loses focus a lot. Saw him twice this year and he made needless errors in each game. The tools and athleticism are impressive but I'm of the opinion he won't stay in the infield, which limits his value. He's still filling in and his agility isn't up to snuff for a 2B. His inability to control the strike zone well drags his tools down and limits him.
  • Jordan Weems - Solid but unexciting prep catcher. Project as an everyday MLB catcher, but raw and still growing.
  • Jose Vinicio - Not sure how much he will hit and will always lack secondary skills... so most likely ends up a utility type, but there is certainly the potential for him to end up a solid MLB SS who can hit a little. Small guy who puts the ball in play type.

Thanks.

EDIT: Listed Noe Ramirez as a lefty.
EDIT: I'm an idiot. Henry Ramos.

Edited by alskor, 04 November 2011 - 12:29 AM.


#107 thestardawg

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Posted 03 November 2011 - 09:24 PM

No, a .390 OBP does. You're committing the classic Bill James error: focusing on what a player can't do rather than what he can.

Also, a prospect, in my book, is anybody with a non-zero chance of being an MLB player, even if the odds against it are 50-1 or 100-1. It's not really all that significant to say that Gibson (with a history of scouting love) is still one. It's much more significant if you declare that Michael Almaznzar, Pete Hissey, Caleb Clay, Ryan Dent, and/or David Mailman aren't any longer (as I'm just about to do).


Thanks for your response and everyone else's response to my query.

I guess my concern is bascially...won't MLB pitchers be more apt to challenge to someone who has shown zero power to date. In the lower minors where command is generally weak for pitchers, Gibson might be working walks. However, if he lugs a Slugging of .300 to the majors, I can't imagine pitchers being afraid to challenge him, the example of Luis Castillo notwithstanding.

#108 JakeRae


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Posted 03 November 2011 - 10:46 PM

Thanks for your response and everyone else's response to my query.

I guess my concern is bascially...won't MLB pitchers be more apt to challenge to someone who has shown zero power to date. In the lower minors where command is generally weak for pitchers, Gibson might be working walks. However, if he lugs a Slugging of .300 to the majors, I can't imagine pitchers being afraid to challenge him, the example of Luis Castillo notwithstanding.

That's the general wisdom. But, there are examples of guys with little to no power who have succeeded at drawing lots of walks. Brett Gardner is another great example of this sort of hitter. I don't think that, from a pitcher's perspective, the difference between a 50 and 100 ISO is relevant. Both guys are looked at as having no power and will be challenged. So, while Gardner has more power than Gibson, he still serves as a solid example of a guy who doesn't hit for power who has been able to maintain value offensively through an excellent OBP. Gardner actually walks more frequently in the majors than he ever did in the minors.

EV might be able to provide more insight into whether Gardner and Castillo are true exceptions to the rule or if the general wisdom on this issue is wrong. I wouldn't be surprised if low power, high walk rate hitters are just rare at all levels rather than seeing a uniquely high rate of attrition. On the other hand, finding out that the common wisdom is correct and that Gardner, Castillo, et al. are the rare exceptions to that rule also would not surprise me.

#109 phragle


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Posted 03 November 2011 - 11:19 PM

  • Noe Ramirez - Lefty with average velo and a nasty CU. Probably a back end starter, but there could be more here. Fun guy to watch in college.

Awe, man. I have some bad news.

Also Henry Owens is a pitcher.

#110 Super Nomario


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Posted 03 November 2011 - 11:32 PM

That's the general wisdom. But, there are examples of guys with little to no power who have succeeded at drawing lots of walks. Brett Gardner is another great example of this sort of hitter. I don't think that, from a pitcher's perspective, the difference between a 50 and 100 ISO is relevant. Both guys are looked at as having no power and will be challenged. So, while Gardner has more power than Gibson, he still serves as a solid example of a guy who doesn't hit for power who has been able to maintain value offensively through an excellent OBP. Gardner actually walks more frequently in the majors than he ever did in the minors.

EV might be able to provide more insight into whether Gardner and Castillo are true exceptions to the rule or if the general wisdom on this issue is wrong. I wouldn't be surprised if low power, high walk rate hitters are just rare at all levels rather than seeing a uniquely high rate of attrition. On the other hand, finding out that the common wisdom is correct and that Gardner, Castillo, et al. are the rare exceptions to that rule also would not surprise me.

I can think of David Eckstein as a counter-example; he walked a ton in the minors but never even in 10% of his PAs as a major-leaguer. He tended to be old for his levels in the minors; not sure if that makes a difference.

#111 alskor

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Posted 03 November 2011 - 11:57 PM

Awe, man. I have some bad news.

Also Henry Owens is a pitcher.

Doh! Brain fart(s)! Fixed.

EDIT: "LHS" was correct for Owens - Left Handed Starter (Starting Pitcher). Ramirez analysis was accurate, just put in lefty instead of righty. His velo would, of course, be above average for a southpaw.

Edited by alskor, 04 November 2011 - 12:00 AM.


#112 phragle


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Posted 04 November 2011 - 12:13 AM

Doh! Brain fart(s)! Fixed.

EDIT: "LHS" was correct for Owens - Left Handed Starter (Starting Pitcher). Ramirez analysis was accurate, just put in lefty instead of righty. His velo would, of course, be above average for a southpaw.

Whoops, I should have specified. I was talking about this

  • Henry Owens - Some of the better tools in the system. Lot of raw power. For someone who grew up playing soccer, I find his BB:K as one of the youngest guys on the Greenville roster fairly encouraging.


You obviously meant Ramos, the hitter.

By the way, I love the Barnes love.

#113 alskor

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Posted 04 November 2011 - 12:28 AM

You obviously meant Ramos, the hitter.

Ah... Thanks. Dammit. I decided to add those ten comments at the last second. Flubbed it, obviously. :rolleyes:

By the way, I love the Barnes love.

I'm a fan, but you already knew that! I can't wait to see the Sox player development people get to him. The velo and raw stuff is there. Good frame. He needs to work on his FB command in particular but needs to really command all his pitches better (or at least start using the CB as a chase more often when he's ahead in the count). With some more consistency in his secondary stuff he could really throw up some nice looking numbers on his way to Fenway.

#114 Hendu Candu

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Posted 12 November 2011 - 07:39 PM

Brandon Jacobs has to be in any Top Ten.

#115 JakeRae


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Posted 12 November 2011 - 07:51 PM

Brandon Jacobs has to be in any Top Ten.

No. He really doesn't. Middlebrooks, Kalish, Iglesias, Bogaerts, Lavarnway, Ranaudo, Barnes, Brentz, Swihart, Coyle, and Cecchini all have good cases that they could be ranked ahead of him. Weiland and Doubront could also conceivably eclipse him him in a reasonable system ranking. JBJ, Owens, and Head might sneak ahead on a few lists if people are in love with them.

I'm not saying he isn't in my top 10. I'm pretty sure I had him there and I'm pretty sure if I were ranking again, he still would be. But, in my mind, Brentz, Swihart, Coyle, Cecchini, and Jacobs are all fairly interchangeable from a rankings standpoint and there just isn't room in the top 10 for all of them.

#116 alskor

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Posted 15 November 2011 - 04:27 PM

Brandon Jacobs has to be in any Top Ten.

I (obviously, given my list above) don't agree. Jacobs is a quality prospect and I would completely understand someone ranking him in their top 10. I just have some concerns that hold him back a bit. The two big issues for me:

  • Swing and Miss - Jacobs struck out 123 times in only 115 games. While he had a healthy walk rate that mitigates the issue somewhat, he also has holes in his swing and issues with pitch recognition. He will have to make significant adjustments or he will really struggle against more advanced pitching.
  • Body Type/Defense - Jacobs is a big kid with a football player's body. He's not particularly that agile or mobile. He's already in a corner outfield spot at 20 years old. Compared to some of the other players in my top 10 its worth noting that Jacobs is already pretty close to the bottom of the defensive spectrum (and its LF instead of RF since his arm isn't great). His defense in LF is very raw at this point and I'm not sure the glove ceiling is anything other than "average at best"... or something in that range. I wouldn't go so far as to say Jacobs is a "bat-only" player, but the lion's share of his value to a major league team will probably have to come from the bat.

Jacobs is a very good prospect, but I'm hesitant enough that he just misses my top 10 right now. This probably says more about the quality & depth of the Red Sox system than it does about Jacobs, too.

#117 curly2

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Posted 15 November 2011 - 05:45 PM

[*]Body Type/Defense - Jacobs is a big kid with a football player's body. He's not particularly that agile or mobile. He's already in a corner outfield spot at 20 years old.

The talk was that one of his adjustments was transforming his football player's body to a baseball player's body, and it seems like he's doing it. I know stolen bases aren't purely the result of speed, but after stealing four bases in his first 72 games, he stole 30 in 115 games last year.

He may never be a defensive wizard, but if his baserunning is improving, there's a chance his defense will, too. I think he's still adjusting to being a full-time baseball player, so I don't think anyone (including the Sox brass) is quite sure what his ceiling is. Going from .719 in short-season ball to .881 in High-A doesn't make him a can't-miss prospect, but it definitely makes him an intriguing one.

#118 soxfan121


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Posted 16 November 2011 - 09:33 AM

Guaranteed Major Leaguers

1. Jose Iglesias, SS
I think he'll hit like Smith or Belanger or Ordonez, with an upside of Vizquel and I'm almost sure that if he stays healthy, he'll field like those guys. And if he does, he's a tremendously valuable player, as I think defense at SS is underrated by just about everyone. I look forward to defending his offense with "but did you SEE that play against X? Saved 2 runs" for the next decade.

2. Ryan Lavarnway, DH/C
Great final minor league season, forcing a call up with his progress and power. I'm not sold on him as more than an occasional C but I do think he can be hidden there 40-60 times a season if his bat is good enough to get him an equal number at DH. Reminds me of Mickey Tettleton or Matt Nokes - a guy who could C, probably shouldn't and had to hit the long ball to keep a regular job.

3. Ryan Kalish, OF
Mostly a lost season, especially because he could have solidified his lead on Reddick as Kalish surely would have gotten the call if he had been healthy and would be graduated. IMO, a superior prospect/player to Reddick and a good possibility to win the RF job in 2012.

Not Ranked: Kyle Weiland/Felix Doubront/Alex Wilson, P
The weakness of the Sox system is the lack of high minors arms, as these three are the best of a mediocre/average cast. Doubront lacks a proper work ethic and might have wasted an opportunity last season by coming into camp out of shape but he's also the best "stuff" guy and the one with the most upside. All three will be given a chance to win a role in the 2012 bullpen or back of rotation, and those who don't will get the call when there's an injury. We need these guys to improve and/or perform in 2012.

Best Performing Prospects/Best Chance at Major League Career

4. Will Middlebrooks, 3b:
Impossible to ignore and almost assured of some major league at-bats, IMO will struggle to maintain an acceptable OBP in the majors and will need to field like Adrian Beltre to overcome it. Prime trade candidate.

5. Xander Bogaerts, SS:
I rarely rank a low-minors guy this highly but (a) the system is bottom-heavy and (b) the power/eye/defense combination at his age/level is truly impressive. Sounds like he might out-grow SS but I'm excited to see if he can maintain his performance in high-A next season.

6. Anthony Ranaudo, SP
I want to actually see him in 2012 and if a 23 year old isn't in AA, he's not deserving of this list.

7. Garin Cecchini, 3b
8. Sean Coyle, 2b

Coyle had the better season (due to injury) but doesn't have the arm to play anywhere but 2b (according to reports) which lowers his value to the Red Sox. Coyle might be better right now but he's also more likely to be traded. I loved Cecchini's tool-kit when watching him play - might be the best player in the system if he can stay healthy.

8. Brandon Jacobs, OF
9. Bryce Brentz, OF
10. Miles Head, 1b/OF

Three power bats, three lottery tickets. Jacobs had a damn impressive season statistically and supposedly looks more like a baseball player now. Brentz had early-season, lower-level success and late-season, higher level struggles, knocking him down a notch. And Head is the most defensively limited and has the least pedigree. IOW, I have no idea who's better than who right now and look forward to seeing all three develop. It's been too long since there's been a legitimate power propsect in the Sox system.

Not Ranked - Matt Barnes, SP & Blake Swihart, C
I look forward to seeing these recent draftees play and develop. Barnes' ceiling as a potential #2 SP is an instant Top-3 ranking with the supporting performance. Swihart adds depth to a already-deep group of C, which will lose some guys (Expo or Wagner) from here on out. Bradley, Owens and Montas all get honorable mentions and I look forward to their professional debuts in the GCL next season.

#119 doctorogres

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Posted 12 December 2011 - 03:29 PM

Iglesias will surprise some with the bat in 2012 though I don't see him ever becoming a "good" hitter. AAA was a very aggressive assignment for him, which was necessary so he couldn't cruise on his natural contact abilities.


This is a really good point about Iglesias. I feel like a lot of people are very down on him because of the numbers he put up this year, without ever having seen him or keeping in mind that there's a reason he was promoted so aggressively. You expanded on your thoughts in the comments, which I also thought were interesting:

I really think people have an inaccurate image of what Jose Iglesias is. I saw him play a number of times in 2011. I don't want to take away from my top 100 comment, but I'm still a fan and I think he will evolve into someone who hits for AVG with mediocre secondary skills. Think recent vintage Angels middle infielders - he can put the ball in play and make things happen while hopefully not striking out a ton. Iglesias was purposely given an assignment where he was in over his head. He has a natural knack for barreling up the ball and has some pretty good plate coverage... but his pitch recognition and knowledge of the strike zone are sorely lacking. At a lower level he could survive and perhaps even succeed by his natural talents - but he wouldn't develop as a player that way and would continue all his bad habits. I saw improvements in approach from him by the end of the season in Pawtucket (he was working counts - though it didn't result in many walks - and he was comfortably going with pitches away to the opposite field). I think he needs a full year in AAA to keep learning how to deal with advanced secondary pitches and facing pitchers with better command and control than he'd see in the lower levels. His defense really is that spectacular, by the way. If anything, its been understated. His arm is only above average strength wise though... but it plays up because he's so accurate, even throwing on the move and from deep in the hole. Quick, quick hands and release, too.



#120 OttoC


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Posted 12 December 2011 - 06:32 PM

Iglesias did fairly well in the AFL after Boston first signed him and it looked like he might have some power but that seems to have disappeared. I've seen him in person a few times and I thought his swing uncoordinated.

#121 TheGoldenGreek33

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Posted 12 December 2011 - 07:07 PM

I've seen him in person a few times and I thought his swing uncoordinated.

Could that have been on breaking balls that he chased outside the zone?

That's a rhetorical question, by the way. It's easy to see a guy struggle and come away with negative impressions based on a few bad swings. Project Prospect is notorious at this.


Can anyone who's seen him play this year tell me what you do like about his swing and how you think it will translate? IMO, that's far more telling than pointing out the flaws of a 21-year-old in his first full-year of pro ball in AAA.

#122 Super Nomario


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Posted 12 December 2011 - 09:19 PM

Could that have been on breaking balls that he chased outside the zone?

That's a rhetorical question, by the way. It's easy to see a guy struggle and come away with negative impressions based on a few bad swings. Project Prospect is notorious at this.


Can anyone who's seen him play this year tell me what you do like about his swing and how you think it will translate? IMO, that's far more telling than pointing out the flaws of a 21-year-old in his first full-year of pro ball in AAA.

So seeing a player in person is useful ... unless you have negative thoughts about what you see, in which case it's not?

#123 TheGoldenGreek33

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Posted 12 December 2011 - 10:12 PM

So seeing a player in person is useful ... unless you have negative thoughts about what you see, in which case it's not?

Say Joey Bats goes 0-4 with 3 K'S (two of which are off-balance "uncoordinated" swings on breaking balls in the dirt). How do you evaluate him based off what you saw?



#124 Super Nomario


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Posted 12 December 2011 - 10:59 PM

Say Joey Bats goes 0-4 with 3 K'S (two of which are off-balance "uncoordinated" swings on breaking balls in the dirt). How do you evaluate him based off what you saw?

Say he hits two doubles? How do you evaluate him based on that?

I'm not a professional scout, so I don't place much / any value in my eye evaluation. That doesn't keep me from making judgments when I go to Sea Dogs games, but I've learned from experience not to trust myself.

#125 OttoC


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Posted 13 December 2011 - 11:21 AM

Could that have been on breaking balls that he chased outside the zone?

That's a rhetorical question, by the way. It's easy to see a guy struggle and come away with negative impressions based on a few bad swings. Project Prospect is notorious at this.


Can anyone who's seen him play this year tell me what you do like about his swing and how you think it will translate? IMO, that's far more telling than pointing out the flaws of a 21-year-old in his first full-year of pro ball in AAA.

I thought his arm and hips were way out of sync.

#126 doctorogres

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Posted 13 December 2011 - 11:41 AM

Say he hits two doubles? How do you evaluate him based on that?

I'm not a professional scout, so I don't place much / any value in my eye evaluation. That doesn't keep me from making judgments when I go to Sea Dogs games, but I've learned from experience not to trust myself.


I think this is the real point. Right? You need to see someone multiple times, over multiple years, and be able to apply some level of experience or training to those observations. With Iglesias, I'm just pointing out that every single scouting report I've ever read about him always notes his quick bat speed, strong wrists, and natural contact tool. I thought putting him in AAA had more to do with getting him ready by mid-2012, as did a lot of people who are now extremely down on him. What I hadn't considered, and thought was an interesting angle, was that they needed to place him that high so he wouldn't coast on his natural abilities, so he'd learn to bring a plan to the plate. His tools haven't eroded, and I think his outlook is about the same-- he was way young in AAA, and he'll still be young for the league next year. Let's see how he adapts.

#127 gammoseditor


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Posted 13 December 2011 - 03:56 PM

Sickels posted his top 25 today for those who are interested. 2 B+'s, 4 B's, 10 B-'s, and the rest C+'s. Vazquez was a B- despite ranking lower than some C+'s so there could be a revision there. Xander was also noted as a potential A- before he's finished with his book.

1) Xander Bogaerts
2) Matt Barnes
3) Will Middlebrooks
4) Ryan Lavarnway
5) Garin Cecchini
6) Brandon Jacobs
7) Blake Swihart
8) Sean Coyle
9) Bryce Brentz
10) Anthony Ranaudo
11) Henry Owens
12) Jose Iglesias
13) Jackie Bradley Jr.
14) Alex Wilson
15) Brandon Workman
16) Kyle Weiland
17) Felix Doubront
18) Stolmy Pimentel
19) Christian Vazquez
20) Kolbrin Vitek
21) Miles Head
22) Cody Kukuk
23) Raul Alcantara
24) Jose Vinicio
25) Junichi Tazawa

edit: Link: http://www.minorleag...-2012#storyjump

Edited by gammoseditor, 13 December 2011 - 03:56 PM.


#128 TheGoldenGreek33

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Posted 13 December 2011 - 04:05 PM

Say he hits two doubles? How do you evaluate him based on that?

The same way you do if he has a bad game. In such a limited sample size, you have to look for independent skill variables -- things that are consistent regardless of the result. All great hitters have the same mechanical efficiencies. Things like set-up/load, hip/shoulder rotation, swing path, extension, etc.

I thought his arm and hips were way out of sync.

Can you please elaborate on that?



#129 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 14 December 2011 - 08:45 AM

Guaranteed Major Leaguers

1. Jose Iglesias, SS
I think he'll hit like Smith or Belanger or Ordonez, with an upside of Vizquel and I'm almost sure that if he stays healthy, he'll field like those guys.

Just a quibble--lumping Smith with Belanger and Ordonez ignores the development Ozzie showed as a hitter after hitting the majors at age 23. He was a poor hitter for his first few years, but he had a good walk rate (consistently in or near double digits starting with his third season), and his BABIP gradually went from awful to just meh, so that he racked up some solid OBPs. He was never a great offensive player or even a real good one, but he made himself an average one at his peak, which came late. His lifetime OPS+ is actually a shade better than Vizquel's (87 to 82), though Vizquel was a little more consistent.

Anyway, I'd be ecstatic to see Iglesias resemble either of those guys offensively.

#130 OttoC


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Posted 14 December 2011 - 08:53 AM

...
Can you please elaborate on that?

Re: Iglesias's swing: His swing was turning his hips, i.e., the bat would be pointing straight out before his hips started turning. The hips are supposed to lead the hands.

#131 chester

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Posted 15 December 2011 - 09:21 PM



6. Anthony Ranaudo, SP
I want to actually see him in 2012 and if a 23 year old isn't in AA, he's not deserving of this list.


When initially signed I thought Ranaudo would have a good shot at getting significant time in 2012. He really did not have progress much last year. He threw a handful of good games but overall did not shine. I still think he has the potential to be the best arm in our farm system by far and if he can throw like he is capable and the lack of a deep pitching staff I could still see him being called up at some point.

#132 mikcou

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Posted 16 December 2011 - 11:39 AM


6. Anthony Ranaudo, SP

I want to actually see him in 2012 and if a 23 year old isn't in AA, he's not deserving of this list.


Just wanted to point out that Ranaudo just turned 22 a few months ago. He'll be 22 for the entire minor league season next year.

#133 SoxScout


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Posted 16 December 2011 - 12:49 PM

He really did not have progress much last year.


I don't think any of us know jack shit about how he progressed, other than he jumped from NCAA to full season ball and threw 127 IP + whatever spring/fall solid innings and is completely healthy, which is massive progress coming out of his last year at LSU.

#134 philly sox fan


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Posted 16 December 2011 - 05:52 PM

I don't think any of us know jack shit about how he progressed, other than he jumped from NCAA to full season ball and threw 127 IP + whatever spring/fall solid innings and is completely healthy, which is massive progress coming out of his last year at LSU.


The health aspect is certainly important, but when that's the only positive (more or less) that you can take from the first season of a college age draft pick that you paid 2.55M to sign, then that's plenty to say that his progress was disappointing.

What we wanted from Ranaudo last year was to prove himself healthy AND maintain his stuff (the non-injury plagued version) in the transition to pro ball. Judging by all the scouting report snippets that have been out there he did not do the latter.

If the reports are worse at the end of the year than the were at the beginning of the year, I'm not sure what you can call that except a lack of progress.

#135 doctorogres

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Posted 20 December 2011 - 03:36 PM

Baseball Prospect Nation has their list up. Here's the list, but check out the site for their take on each player:

1. Will Middlebrooks (3B)
2. Garin Cecchini (3B)
3. Matt Barnes (RHP)
4. Xander Bogaerts (SS)
5. Jose Iglesias (SS)
6. Ryan Lavarnway ©
7. Blake Swihart (C
)8. Brandon Workman (RHP)
9. Anthony Ranaudo (RHP)
10. Henry Owens (LHP)
11. Brandon Jacobs (OF)
12. Bryce Brentz (OF)
13. Jose Vinicio (SS)
14. Jackie Bradley, Jr. (OF)
15. Raul Alcantara (RHP)




I've been hearing a lot of buzz about Cecchini, interesting to see someone so high on him. What's really interesting is besides the top slots (which are usually Middlebrooks, Barnes, and Bogaerts) rankings on the rest have really varied from outlet to outlet. Next year should be very interesting-- a lot of guys have the potential to break out in a really serious way.

#136 LeftyTG

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Posted 21 December 2011 - 11:44 AM

Baseball Prospect Nation has their list up. Here's the list, but check out the site for their take on each player:





I've been hearing a lot of buzz about Cecchini, interesting to see someone so high on him. What's really interesting is besides the top slots (which are usually Middlebrooks, Barnes, and Bogaerts) rankings on the rest have really varied from outlet to outlet. Next year should be very interesting-- a lot of guys have the potential to break out in a really serious way.

How in the world is Workman #8, and ahead of Ranaudo. He is a 23 year old college draftee who had a middling season in the Sally. The website is blocked from my work computer, so I can't read their write up, but I can't imagine anything that could possibly convince me that Workman is a top ten prospect in this system.

#137 doctorogres

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Posted 21 December 2011 - 04:22 PM

How in the world is Workman #8, and ahead of Ranaudo. He is a 23 year old college draftee who had a middling season in the Sally. The website is blocked from my work computer, so I can't read their write up, but I can't imagine anything that could possibly convince me that Workman is a top ten prospect in this system.


Here's the relevant excerpts:

8. Brandon Workman (RHP)Workman seems to frequently get overlooked in this system but he offers two legitimate plus pitches that should help make him at least a back of the rotation starter and possibly more. His change-up is decidedly below average and he has made little progress with it since early in his college career. He has a workhorse frame and excellent makeup on the mound. With his strike-throwing ability and two plus pitches he could move quickly.

9. Anthony Ranaudo (RHP)A huge disappointment in 2011, Ranaudo merely flashed the stuff that made him one of the top arms heading into the 2010 college season. His fastball ranged from the high-80s to the low-90s and only showed the 94-95 mph velocity he possessed previously on rare occasions. His curveball and change-up were extremely inconsistent. Scouts I spoke with at several of his starts were also very concerned about his makeup on the mound. Past projections of Ranaudo as a number two starter have all but vanished, leaving behind a pitcher with number four starter potential and some scouts seeing a future reliever.




He also has a full scouting report on Ranaudo in the following blog post. It seems like the scouts he talked to, and what he himself observed over the summer, gave him a very negative view of his makeup. He also feels the injury concerns haven't been cleared up. Ranaudo was inconsistent this year, and I think people's assessments of him vary a lot based whether they (and the other scouts they consulted) caught him in a peak or a trough.

#138 phragle


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Posted 21 December 2011 - 06:48 PM

Baseball Prospect Nation has their list up. Here's the list, but check out the site for their take on each player:


I've been hearing a lot of buzz about Cecchini, interesting to see someone so high on him. What's really interesting is besides the top slots (which are usually Middlebrooks, Barnes, and Bogaerts) rankings on the rest have really varied from outlet to outlet. Next year should be very interesting-- a lot of guys have the potential to break out in a really serious way.

That list and article are total crap.

And this Cecchini love is out of control. I'll admit I was frustrated with him when I posted my top 20 months ago, and that he deserves a spot on the top 20. Not the top 10 though, and definitely not the top 5. Leave those spots for the players that can actually stay on the field. There is literally nothing about Cecchini that makes him a better prospect than Bogaerts.

#139 JakeRae


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Posted 21 December 2011 - 08:51 PM

That list and article are total crap.

And this Cecchini love is out of control. I'll admit I was frustrated with him when I posted my top 20 months ago, and that he deserves a spot on the top 20. Not the top 10 though, and definitely not the top 5. Leave those spots for the players that can actually stay on the field. There is literally nothing about Cecchini that makes him a better prospect than Bogaerts.

BA has him 7th. Is their list crap too?

#140 phragle


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Posted 21 December 2011 - 09:11 PM

BA has him 7th. Is their list crap too?

A. Second and Seventh is a huge difference.
B. I didn't say Cecchini's ranking was why the list is crap.
C. I didn't say just the list is crap but also the article too. Did you read it?
D. Workman over Ranaudo? Jose Vinicio? It's crap.



#141 Again2004

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Posted 22 December 2011 - 07:17 PM

I love Cecchini a lot. He is one of the best pure hitter with great approach. His other tools are pretty good too even though not spectacular. I know his injury history. I am concerned a bit but he came back healthy in the fall league. If he can keep healthy he would be more likely to reach his potential than any other hitting prospect in the system.

#142 Eric Van


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Posted 26 December 2011 - 11:32 PM

I've been messing around with the Davenport Peak Projections and will have a post on the hitters some time this week. But I couldn't resist this.

Here is the Peak Translation for opponent EqA (TAv) allowed, for June through September, starting pitchers, minimum 200 AB + BB.

What I Just Said
Name EqA
Yeah, him again .187
Luis Diaz .208
Josh Beckett .224
Jon Lester .229
Miguel Celestino .233
Junichi Tazawa .234
Alex Wilson .238
Keith Couch .242
Manuel Rivera .242
Brandon Workman .259
Felix Doubront .262
Kyle Weiland .270
Ryan Pressly .272
Scott Swinson .273
Charlie Haeger .276
Chris Hernandez .277
Tyler Wilson .283
Andrew Miller .285
Jason Garcia .285
Anthony Ranaudo .285
Brandon Duckworth .285
John Lackey .286
Chris Balcom-Miller .293
Brock Huntzinger .310
Madison Younginer .314
Jeremy Kehrt .315
Pete Ruiz .324
Stolmy Pimentel .336
Hunter Cervenka .342
Raynel Vellette .346
Michael Lee .346
Drake Britton .350

Spoiler

Edited by Eric Van, 26 December 2011 - 11:34 PM.