141 replies to this topic

[JakeRae]

I think there's a handful of guys that could be considered number 1 in the system, and just to be different, I"ll pick Bogaerts. His .830 OPS and 14 dingers at 18 years old in a little more than half a season of middle A is one of the most impressive seasons I've seen for any Sox minor league in recent years. I like to compare him with Hanley except that for power, Bogaerts far exceeds Hanley at similar years of development. I also hope Bogaerts sticks at short but the high number of errors (25 errors)is a bit of a concern - and another similarity to Hanley!

Worth considering with Bogaerts is that his BABIP is pretty awful, especially considering the sort of power he has shown. In 238 AB, he has 15 HR, and 64 K. So, he has put a ball in play 159 times and gotten 44 hits. That's a .277 BABIP. While low, that does't look too awful. But, a player with his power should typically have an above average BABIP based on harder contact. I wish there were more first hand reports on his play so we knew if he has had bad luck, pops out a lot, or if its something else. Given the rest of his performance and the fact that his DSL BABIP was .362 (I know, DSL stats, but it's something to go on) I am inclined to believe that his BABIP is flukey.

If he's really a .320 or .330 BABIP hitter with bad luck, we are looking at a roughly .300/.370/.570 line and an OPS well over .900. Mike Stanton is another name that comes to mind as a potential comp. Bogaerts has less power and fewer K's than Stanton, but the BB:K is similar and there are so few players with power at this level at this age that it's hard to find a really good power fit. Guys like ARod and Harper are not great comps as both struck out significantly less at the same age and level and reached the upper minors while still 18. Hanley doesn't strike me as a particularly good offensive comp (defense could be another story) as he only comes close to the power Bogaerts is showing now in his peak MLB years and has no stretch in the minors that looks at all similar to what Bogaerts is doing right now. Also, Hanley's developmental path was pretty anomalous and does not lend itself to comparisons with other players.

All that is to say, ranking Bogaerts number 1 in the system is not something I would object to. I don't have him that high, but I expect him to be there in a year. Actually, I expect him to be a top 10 prospect in all of baseball in a year's time. But, I don't think he's there yet and half a season in low-A isn't enough for me to bump him above some of the very good upper level prospects in the system.

[maufman]

I'll post mine after the MiLB season, but I'll bet that 2 of 3 of Britton, Tejeda and Pimentel are in the Sox Prospects Top 10 by July next year.

Is my sarcasm meter broken?

All three of these guys took a step back this season, so if SP wasn't sold before, why would they be now?

[semsox]

Is my sarcasm meter broken?

All three of these guys took a step back this season, so if SP wasn't sold before, why would they be now?

Britton, Pimentel, and Tejeda were the #4, 5, and 7 prospects respectively going into this season according to SP. No reason to think the ceiling isn't there on any of them that they couldn't push their way back into the Top 10 with great first halves next year.

[SoxScout]

Wasn't sarcasm at all. Britton's stuff is still in like the 95th percentile in all of minor league baseball. Pimentel and Tejeda were the youngest players on the youngest team in Double-A. Each have huge talent. I can easily see them surging as some of the darlings of today stumble in 2012.

[phragle]

Worth considering with Bogaerts is that his BABIP is pretty awful, especially considering the sort of power he has shown. In 238 AB, he has 15 HR, and 64 K. So, he has put a ball in play 159 times and gotten 44 hits. That's a .277 BABIP. While low, that does't look too awful. But, a player with his power should typically have an above average BABIP based on harder contact. I wish there were more first hand reports on his play so we knew if he has had bad luck, pops out a lot, or if its something else. Given the rest of his performance and the fact that his DSL BABIP was .362 (I know, DSL stats, but it's something to go on) I am inclined to believe that his BABIP is flukey.

If he's really a .320 or .330 BABIP hitter with bad luck, we are looking at a roughly .300/.370/.570 line and an OPS well over .900. Mike Stanton is another name that comes to mind as a potential comp. Bogaerts has less power and fewer K's than Stanton, but the BB:K is similar and there are so few players with power at this level at this age that it's hard to find a really good power fit. Guys like ARod and Harper are not great comps as both struck out significantly less at the same age and level and reached the upper minors while still 18. Hanley doesn't strike me as a particularly good offensive comp (defense could be another story) as he only comes close to the power Bogaerts is showing now in his peak MLB years and has no stretch in the minors that looks at all similar to what Bogaerts is doing right now. Also, Hanley's developmental path was pretty anomalous and does not lend itself to comparisons with other players.

All that is to say, ranking Bogaerts number 1 in the system is not something I would object to. I don't have him that high, but I expect him to be there in a year. Actually, I expect him to be a top 10 prospect in all of baseball in a year's time. But, I don't think he's there yet and half a season in low-A isn't enough for me to bump him above some of the very good upper level prospects in the system.

I'm not sure if you're trying to compare him to a ML player or a prospect, but shortstop prospect Manny Machado is an interesting case. Drafted third overall in 2010 by Baltimore, he hit .276/.376/.483 (.859) in the SAL this year. Xander is hitting .256/.325/.521 (.846) in the SAL right now.

Machado was ranked 5th by Law in his mid-season top 50.

Edit: Forgot to add that Machado has had much better K/BB numbers.

Edited by phragle, 28 August 2011 - 11:52 AM.

[SoxScout]

Goldstein said "highly doubtful" when asked if Bogaerts would be Top 100 by next summer like a month ago.

Edited by SoxScout, 28 August 2011 - 11:53 AM.

[phragle]

Goldstein said "highly doubtful" when asked if Bogaerts would be Top 100 by next summer like a month ago.

He'll be on Law's, says Law.

[Bigpupp]

Forgot to add that Machado has had much better K/BB numbers.

And I believe that Machado is projected to stay at SS, where Bogaerts isn't.

[phragle]

And I believe that Machado is projected to stay at SS, where Bogaerts isn't.

I'm not saying that Bogaerts = Machado, just that they are similar. From what I've read Bogaerts is unlikely to stick and Machado is questionable, like 50/50. Regarding projection they are exactly the same size and almost the same age. Bogaerts is 3 months younger. They have similar tools, but Machado is more consistent.

[jscola85]

Machado is listed at 6-3, 185. Bogaerts 6-3, 175, though reports are he's probably 15 pounds heavier than that now. Basically, they're the exact same body frame, so I'd give them the same chances of sticking at SS. Bogaerts has more raw power, Machado a more refined plate approach.

[JakeRae]

Machado is a good comp, but I like Stanton more. Machado is another guy with significantly better strike out and strike out to walk numbers than Bogaerts. He has shown significantly less power so far as well.

As for what type of player I was trying to compare Bogaerts to, I was looking primarily for guys with similar offensive performances at age 18. I was not specifically restricting to major league or minor league players.

[radsoxfan]

Machado is a good comp, but I like Stanton more. Machado is another guy with significantly better strike out and strike out to walk numbers than Bogaerts. He has shown significantly less power so far as well.

As for what type of player I was trying to compare Bogaerts to, I was looking primarily for guys with similar offensive performances at age 18. I was not specifically restricting to major league or minor league players.

Mike Stanton? Yikes.... I know you admitted Stanton has more power, but even that seems to be underselling how ridiculous Stanton's power is.

I am loving the power Bogaerts is showing at age 18 as well, but Stanton still seems to be on another level. I know you want to give Xander a SLG bump for his low BABIP, but even so, Stanton put up a .611 SLG at age 18 at the same level (39 HR). Thats still quite a leap from the still very good .521 that Bogaerts has right now.

Stanton is also a HUGE guy (6'5" 235), and someone who has always been expected to put up big power numbers. His major league SLG of .544 in his age 21 season is just the tip of the iceberg. Law has him as an 80 (as high as you can get) as a scouting ranking for power.

I honestly don't know enough about Bogaerts (besides the numbers) to be sure of my criticism of your comparison, but basically you are saying he compares with the guy with the most raw power in all of baseball. Something tells me that there has to be someone else a level below Stanton that would be a more accurate comparison.

Edited by radsoxfan, 28 August 2011 - 03:29 PM.

[wilymomoonshot]

Hi all. Loooong time lurker here (had an old log on name that I tried to change but couldn't so I made a new one) but never posted anything before. I have a blog and did a post today on who I think the Sox top prospects are. Feel free to check it out and tell me how much of an idiot I am if I'm way off base.

http://wilymomoonsho...p-10-prospects/

Edited by wilymomoonshot, 28 August 2011 - 04:14 PM.

[JakeRae]

Mike Stanton? Yikes.... I know you admitted Stanton has more power, but even that seems to be underselling how ridiculous Stanton's power is.

I am loving the power Bogaerts is showing at age 18 as well, but Stanton still seems to be on another level. I know you want to give Xander a SLG bump for his low BABIP, but even so, Stanton put up a .611 SLG at age 18 at the same level (39 HR). Thats still quite a leap from the still very good .521 that Bogaerts has right now.

Stanton is also a HUGE guy (6'5" 235), and someone who has always been expected to put up big power numbers. His major league SLG of .544 in his age 21 season is just the tip of the iceberg. Law has him as an 80 (as high as you can get) as a scouting ranking for power.

I honestly don't know enough about Bogaerts (besides the numbers) to be sure of my criticism of your comparison, but basically you are saying he compares with the guy with the most raw power in all of baseball. Something tells me that there has to be someone else a level below Stanton that would be a more accurate comparison.

There are certainly better power comps. Power is only one aspect of a baseball player's offense. And, given how few players show power of Bogaerts sort at his age and level, matching all relevant offensive components isn't possible.

I also think you are underselling the power that Bogaerts is showing. His 15 HR are in almost exactly half the PA that Stanton's 39 came in. If you extrapolate his results to a 540 PA sample, he is a 30 HR hitter. That's not the same as 39 HR, but there just aren't a lot of 18 year olds who are anywhere near either of those numbers. I like Stanton as a comp, not because the power is a perfect match, but because it is close, the K/BB ration of nearly 3:1 is similar, and both have high K-rates. Bogaerts has struck out about 4 percent less than Stanton, but once again, a lot of the other power comps (the most restrictive aspect of finding similar players to Bogaerts) boast K/BB ratios of under 2:1 and substantially lower K rates.

So, while I don't think Bogaerts is ever going to be an 80 power guy, I think, right now, he looks like a 70-75 with otherwise similar characteristics to Mike Stanton.

Once again, there are so few players who show this sort of power at this young an age and this advanced a level that the universe of potential comps is very small. You pretty much have to choose what components you prioritize. Stanton fits in a lot of ways despite the fact that the fit isn't perfect. And, no matter who you look at to provide as a comp, the short version of the story is that we should be getting very very excited about Xander Bogaerts.

Edited by JakeRae, 28 August 2011 - 07:18 PM.

[radsoxfan]

I guess my main point is that although you are saying power is just part of what makes up a player, really that's all you are comparing. Having a similar 3/1 K/BB ratio on its own means nothing. Tons of prospects and non-prospects have this ratio. You are only saying it's a relevant comparison because they have similar K/BB rates along with a crapload of power.

In that case, its worth pointing out that they really are not totally comparable in the power category based on body type, scouting report, or raw numbers. Even if Xander can sustain his current numbers for as long as Stanton did at age 18, I don't think his power is quite to the level where you can start linking other stats like K/BB (which on their own are not extraordinary) and extrapolate comparable players.

Admittedly, I'm not coming up with someone better here. Would have to think about it for a bit. The Stanton thing just seems both so optimistic and a little off base considering what I have heard about the guy and looking at his numbers.

And, no matter who you look at to provide as a comp, the short version of the story is that we should be getting very very excited about Xander Bogaerts.

On this we can certainly agree. I'm very excited about Bogaerts, and will be even moreso if he can stick at SS.


Edit: Maybe if we normalized Bogaerts to a SS offensive scale as opposed to a corner OF, then I would buy it. Coming close to the 45-50 HR power I expect from Stanton seems too hard to imagine, but can we agree to call him the Mike Stanton of SS prospects? Maybe thats just semantics, but for whatever reason it makes more sense to me....

Edited by radsoxfan, 28 August 2011 - 07:55 PM.

[Eric Van]

There are certainly better power comps. Power is only one aspect of a baseball player's offense. And, given how few players show power of Bogaerts sort at his age and level, matching all relevant offensive components isn't possible.

And, no matter who you look at to provide as a comp, the short version of the story is that we should be getting very very excited about Xander Bogaerts.

I happen to have a complete database of minor league stats from 1995 to 2004.

Here's the complete list of guys who had a Home Run / Contact of .050 or better at age 18 in low-A in that decade (minimum 250 PA), along with their K and BB rates:

.063 Delmon Young (.210, .082)
.055 Andy Marte (.212, .071)

X is currently .085 (.240, .089). And we know he's not getting any chemical help.

The only 19-year old to top that was Alex Escobar, and BA ranked him #11 after that season.

Stanton was .123 (.287, .096). He's really from a different planet altogether.

Edit: not Wily Mo Pena, who started the season in the NYPL and had .041 across both levels. And un-swapped X and Stanton K and BB rates.

Edited by Eric Van, 29 August 2011 - 07:55 AM.

[SpruceTrap]

FWIW, because I'm lazy, I'm not going to write my yearly diatribe about ranking recent draftees ahead of guys who have, you know, DONE SOMETHING in professional baseball. 99% of people who draw up these lists haven't seen the players they're ranking enough to be taken seriously (I haven't either) and it's only magnified when a 1st round pick rockets into the Top 5 of one of these lists. Sorry. I'd prefer to know which 10 guys who have swung a wood bat or struck out a player with a wood bat have been most impressive against professional competition.

So let me get this straight. If we drafted say, Bryce Harper, last draft he would have no business in a list of our top 5 prospects because he's never swung a wooden bat?

[JakeRae]

I happen to have a complete database of minor league stats from 1995 to 2004.

Here's the complete list of guys who had a Home Run / Contact of .050 or better at age 18 in low-A in that decade (minimum 250 PA), along with their K and BB rates:

.063 Delmon Young (.210, .082)
.055 Andy Marte (.212, .071)

X is currently .085 (.287, .096). And we know he's not getting any chemical help.

The only 19-year old to top that was Alex Escobar, and BA ranked him #11 after that season.

Stanton was .123 (.245, .091). He's really from a different planet altogether.

Edit: not Wily Mo Pena, who started the season in the NYPL and had .041 across both levels.

The HR/contact numbers look right, but the K and BB rates there are wrong. Bogaerts is currently at .239 K/PA and .090 BB/PA. Stanton was at .283 K/PA and .107 BB/PA.

I was looking at overall HR rates, where Stanton gets a bit penalized relative to his true power by his high strikeout totals, but this is probably a better way to look at it.

[Eric Van]

The HR/contact numbers look right, but the K and BB rates there are wrong. Bogaerts is currently at .239 K/PA and .090 BB/PA. Stanton was at .283 K/PA and .107 BB/PA.

Thanks for the heads-up. Of course I just swapped them accidentally, and was lazy and didn't check Xander's HBP at FanGraphs (and hence was missing 4 SF as well). I'm taking out IBB from Stanton, which you should.

(I have X at .240 and .089 ... )

Edited by Eric Van, 29 August 2011 - 07:54 AM.

[soxfan121]

So let me get this straight. If we drafted say, Bryce Harper, last draft he would have no business in a list of our top 5 prospects because he's never swung a wooden bat?

Thanks for picking an extreme outlier that proves my point. First, Harper used a wood bat. It was part of his pre-draft hype. Second, Harper is clearly an atypical draft prospect - a high school age player who most, if not all, serious baseball fans saw swing a wood bat before he was drafted. Third, Harper was hyped as a "generational talent" - not an "average" draftee in any estimation.

Other than that, great example.

The point I was trying to make (and pay attention, cause you missed it the first time) is that 99% of us (i.e. SoSH minor league forum participants) have NOT SEEN ANY OF THESE DRAFTEES PLAY. All we've got is scouting reports and competition against guys who are working at Wal-Mart or attending PoliSci 305 tomorrow.

Top prospect lists are, IMO, useful when they compare players against similar competition. Bogaerts (to grab a name) can be comped to other guys, at the same age, in the same league, with at least a measure of reliability. The Sally League is "known" and provides a basis for comparison. However, Barnes (to grab a name) pitched against aluminum bats in the Big East. What was the competition like? Can he be compared (with any degree of accuracy) to Cole (who pitched in the "better" Pac-10)? Ranking recent draftees is, at best, a useless exercise. Until the guy actually plays against professional competition, it's all potential and projection - based on unequal competitive situations and equipment that is not legal in professional baseball.

A few years back, I railed on ranking Will Middlebrooks in the top 10 when he was drafted. He struggled to acclimate to professional baseball and fell off these lists for a couple seasons and was even discussed as a "failed" prospect. Uh, not so fast. He didn't deserve to be ranked in the top 10 when he was drafted and he wasn't a "failure" when he struggled to adapt to the professional game. He was developing in the professional game - competing against players with similar talent and ability for the first time.

Is Barnes a better "prospect" than Brandon Jacobs? Maybe, even probably. However, Jacobs has put up real evidence of his ability to actually PLAY professional baseball. Barnes might be the second coming of Koufax but he's done NOTHING professionally. Until he does, he doesn't make my list. He shouldn't make lists that purport to rank prospects on any basis of production. If it's pure potential, then just list the first round pick at #3 every season and be done with it. But most people mix the potential and the production and don't really see the difference between the two. Or worse, don't understand the difference between the two.

If the Red Sox drafted Bryce Harper, of course he'd be in everyone's top 5 - heck, he'd be in most people's top 2 or top 1. But they didn't draft the second coming of Mickey Mantle, groomed from age 16 to play professional baseball and practicing with a wood bat in anticipation of his eventual draft status. Matt Barnes pitched at UConn, to unknown competition wielding aluminum bats. I have no fucking idea if he's any good (I assume he is, the baseball ops folks haven't fucked up many) but is he the next Jon Lester or the next Caleb Clay? Or the next Michael Bowden? Or Brian Rose? (I can keep going...)

[JakeRae]

Prospect rankings are informed guesses. I really do feel like we have enough information, at least about the fairly heavily scouted top of the draft guys, to make marginally informed guesses about their rankings. Those guesses will be a lot less accurate than those we make about guys already in the system (at least those in full season leagues) and massively less accurate than those we make about guys in the high minors, but that does not negate all of their value. Just leaving these guys off your rankings feels like a cop out.

If you do not think that Matt Barnes is not one of the 20 prospect eligible players in the Red Sox organization, by all means, leave him off your list. If not, put him where you think he belongs even if you are highly unlikely to feel the same a year from now. Otherwise, you are compiling a list of the best prospects with professional experience in the system rather than just the best prospects.

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

Thanks for picking an extreme outlier that proves my point. First, Harper used a wood bat. It was part of his pre-draft hype. Second, Harper is clearly an atypical draft prospect - a high school age player who most, if not all, serious baseball fans saw swing a wood bat before he was drafted. Third, Harper was hyped as a "generational talent" - not an "average" draftee in any estimation.

Other than that, great example.

So, there are meaningful differences between first-round draft picks, after all. What about this year? No one at Harper's level, but what would you say about Cole, Hultzen, Rendon, Bauer, Bundy, Starling and Archie Bradley, had the Red Sox been fortunate enough to land any of them? Not top-20 prospects?

The point I was trying to make (and pay attention, cause you missed it the first time) is that 99% of us (i.e. SoSH minor league forum participants) have NOT SEEN ANY OF THESE DRAFTEES PLAY. All we've got is scouting reports and competition against guys who are working at Wal-Mart or attending PoliSci 305 tomorrow.

Why would you assume that people have not seen any draftees play? I mean, obviously it's hard to see high school baseball, but I find it much easier to find a game between marquee college programs than something in the NYPL. Also, I think you're severely underestimating the level of play in division 1 college baseball, particularly in the top conferences, where all the players are going to be highly-regarded high school recruits. I challenge you to find one baseball player in the SEC or Pac-10 who has a job at Wal-Mart.

Top prospect lists are, IMO, useful when they compare players against similar competition. Bogaerts (to grab a name) can be comped to other guys, at the same age, in the same league, with at least a measure of reliability. The Sally League is "known" and provides a basis for comparison. However, Barnes (to grab a name) pitched against aluminum bats in the Big East. What was the competition like? Can he be compared (with any degree of accuracy) to Cole (who pitched in the "better" Pac-10)? Ranking recent draftees is, at best, a useless exercise. Until the guy actually plays against professional competition, it's all potential and projection - based on unequal competitive situations and equipment that is not legal in professional baseball.

It's harder to project guys based on their college experience, but it's not impossible. Some very interesting work has been done correlating excessively high college K-rates with a low rate of success. Are you really saying that it's a toss-up as to which of Barnes or Cole is the better prospect right now? Obviously you never know who's going to be the better player, but this kind of uncertainty applies to prospects at all levels, not just guys fresh out of college.

Is Barnes a better "prospect" than Brandon Jacobs? Maybe, even probably. However, Jacobs has put up real evidence of his ability to actually PLAY professional baseball. Barnes might be the second coming of Koufax but he's done NOTHING professionally. Until he does, he doesn't make my list. He shouldn't make lists that purport to rank prospects on any basis of production. If it's pure potential, then just list the first round pick at #3 every season and be done with it. But most people mix the potential and the production and don't really see the difference between the two. Or worse, don't understand the difference between the two.

This is all just probabilities. I also happen to prefer Jacobs to Barnes, but do you really think that there's a significant chance Barnes is going to spontaneously combust or something once he starts pitching to guys with wooden bats? Obviously there's some chance he just doesn't work out, and it's apparent from very early on in his career, but that kind of caveat applies to all prospects, more or less.

If the Red Sox drafted Bryce Harper, of course he'd be in everyone's top 5 - heck, he'd be in most people's top 2 or top 1. But they didn't draft the second coming of Mickey Mantle, groomed from age 16 to play professional baseball and practicing with a wood bat in anticipation of his eventual draft status. Matt Barnes pitched at UConn, to unknown competition wielding aluminum bats. I have no fucking idea if he's any good (I assume he is, the baseball ops folks haven't fucked up many) but is he the next Jon Lester or the next Caleb Clay? Or the next Michael Bowden? Or Brian Rose? (I can keep going...)

Did we even know that Brian Rose was the next Brian Rose when he was pitching for Pawtucket? I don't know that we did. There's some degree of uncertainty surrounding all prospects.

[AZBlue]

Regarding Bogaerts, it will be interesting to see how he compares with Jim Ed Rice, who hit 17 home runs in high A Florida State League at age 19 and 31 homers between AA and AAA at age 20.

Then there was Tony Conigliaro, who hit 42 doubles and 24 home runs in 333 AB's for low a Wellsville (NYP) at 18 before jumping to the big club the next year. He had a .363 batting average, .730 slugging % and 243 total bases in 83 games. Somewhat impressive.

Edited by AZBlue, 31 August 2011 - 06:37 PM.

[JakeRae]

I want to retroactively add Christian Vazquez to my honorable mention list. He's now .283/.358/.505 in 444 PA as a 20 year old catcher in the SAL. He's always had a pretty good defensive reputation and his 18 HR, 27 doubles, and overall very strong offensive performance has him rapidly rising through the prospect ranks, or will soon. I'm debating whether he fits into my top 20 at this point, but he definitely is a top 30 prospect in the system.

Greenville was all kinds of stacked with prospects this year, and I wonder if his progress has gotten overlooked a bit as a result of people focusing on the more exciting names on the team. I think I've been guilty of that. He has also alternated extreme hot and cold stretches this year.

His month by month splits are.

.323/.420/.523 (17 games)
.231/.307/.333 (22 games)
.282/.341/.615 (21 games)
.238/.281/.405 (21 games)
.315/.398/.521 (20 games)
.500/.611/.1286 (4 games)

For those who prefer OPS, that is .943, .640, .957, .686, .918, 1.897.

[Bustabad]

No love for Christian Vazquez in the top 20 eh? Kid turned 21 this week, is mashing in Greenville and is reportedly a very good to great defensive catcher. Though looking at lists it's hard to argue who he should be ahead of. The low minors for the Sox are chock-full of talent these days.

I know you can't fit everyone in the top 20, but the glaring omissions for me are Hazelbaker, Ramos, and Workman. Hazelbaker is a year or two older than I'd like him to be for AA but anyone who hits 17 homers, steals 47 bases, and draws 62 walks is hard to ignore. Ramos was overshadowed by Bogaerts and Coyle at Greenville but oozes tools and handled a full season A league as a teen. And Workman was BA's #18 prospect last year and followed it up with solid numbers across the board at low A - more than can be said for Britton and Pimentel, who were complete disasters.

Edited by Bustabad, 09 September 2011 - 07:32 PM.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

1. Middlebrooks- He'll firmly establish a top 15 overall prospect ranking by the end of next year and will just be in time to take over for our currently ailing and soon-to-be 33 year-old free agent third basemen at the end of his contract.

2. Kalish- Imagine if Middlebrooks had come up this year and posted a.710 OPS. You'd be pretty ecstatic, right? Well, that's what Kalish did last year and he seems to be almost forgotten after suffering a torn labrum in his shoulder in April. Although, health has been his biggest concern... Ah,well. We can always pretend this is a video game and we set the franchise options to "no injuries", right?

3. Ranaudo- I think he's got Beckett stuff when it's all said and done. A so-so year in Salem, his command still isn't particularly sharp and I think that's where he'll fall short of Beckett status. But, I think we can all vouch for how incredibly valuable a 3-starter is after this Red Sox season...

4. Lavarnway- Truthfully, I hate how much I've been a "hater" on him. He still shouldn't really be mentioned with Montero yet, but that aside, I'll admit -- how can you go against this guy? And you know what, who cares if he's a mistake hitter, look what Ellsbury is doing this year as a mistake hitter! As a primarily DH guy down the road, I just don't see him being a true offensive threat like we've been spoiled by Ortiz with. Ithink he'll still be a valuable guy, but not one you put in the middle of agreat lineup.

5. Iglesias- 21 years-old in Pawtucket... Experience is cumulative. I don't give a rat's ass how bad he hit this year. How many other guys his age do you see one step away from the bigs? The Sox have rarely, if ever, gone through that kind of test if they didn't have tremendous confidence in him and hismentality. Oh, and duh, watching him take infield is like baseball porn.

6. Bogaerts- Man, slugging .500 as an 18-year-old in the Sally? When a guy is two years above his level of competition, and in his case as a resultof not only being called up because of his tools but his performance as well, you feel dirty criticizing the guy. Oh, but he only hit .260 andhad a 1:3 BB/K ratio... I mean, seriously... are you a baseball fan or what?

7. Jacobs- Power and speed, baby. Don't roll your eyes. You know how special of a player that is. Yeah, the K-rate isn't great. But, this is a kid who was also a standout running back committed to Auburn. We knew he was goingto be raw. What we didn't expect was immediate production all while progressively learning to be more selective at this stage. He's still got a bit of work to do, but it's tough not to be excited.

8. Swihart- The Sox didn't give him $2.5 million because he was a good hitting catcher. They gave him that much because he's that good of a hitter, period, from both sides. Time will tell, and he's certainly more advanced than Middlebrooks was when he was drafted, but I do expect him to struggle initially. True, he's new to calling games and isn't fundamentally strong back there. But, he's a good athlete and is a baseball rat. Hop on.

9. Cecchini- Yet another high baseball-IQ guy. Gee, what's with the Sox liking good baseball players? He was an easy S1 talent inthe 2010 draft, but the recovery process took longer than it should have and will now be a 21-year-old starting his first full year in the Sally... I don'thave the right to question his work ethic, all I'm saying is he lost quite a bit of developmental time, especially considering being one of the oldest HS draftees. He's good, but next year will be a huge year for him.

10. Wilson- Interesting fella. Definitely a two-pitch guy, but he haspolish of both pitches and looks to be a solid 7th inning guy/possiblepiggy-backer. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him start making thetransition to a reliever, and I don't think it's a demotion. You don't alwaysforce guys to reach their ceiling. It's like black jack; you have to stay at 16sometimes.

11. Bradley, Jr. - My favorite pick of the draft this year, he wouldn't have even been on the board at 19 if he had stayed healthy. The polish. The track record. The athleticism. Enjoy the show next year.

12. Coyle- SP says Brian Roberts, I say Jed Lowrie. Another high baseball-IQ prep draftee, quite a few jumped on the bandwagon after hitting well in the Sally in his first full year. For sure. I get it. His year was about what I thought Westmoreland would've had in his first full year (save fora higher average). He just doesn't profile as a run producer to me. I'm not writing him off because of that, I'm just lowering his ceiling. High floor/medium ceiling utility infielder who shouldn't play shortstop... Hmm.

13. Britton- It seemed like the line to jump of his bandwagon was a mile long this season. He's got such good stuff, though. I think this bump in the road was good for him. This is where he starts to become a pitcher. No more relying on pure stuff. The sooner he learns the finer aspects of the craft thebetter.

14. Barnes- Mechanically, Barnes worries me. I hate to be that guy, buthe's got so many flying parts and such long arm action and an inconsistent release point to boot. I don't disagree with the pick, though. He's got goodstuff, tremendous poise and has shown success against good competition, but Ijust don't think he's the safe pick some people labeled him as because of being from a cold weather state* and the aforementioned mechanical issues. IMO.

*And, the knock on being from a cold-weather state has more to do with his development than from acompetition stand point.

15. Doubront- Well, I think he's a valuable commodity. I question whether he'll be able to make it past the 5th inning as a starter in the ALEast. I think you wait and see on him next year, and if he hasn't made a ton of improvement, then there's teams in the NL Central and West that might love to have him around the trade deadline. But, he's just not going to fool a whole lot of hitters in this division.

16. Vitek- A bit of a puzzle here. There's so many ways you can go with his development. I think the best way is to let him continue to expand his zoneand hope he grows accustomed to different pitches. Key-hole hitters rarely succeed in the majors. The advanced scouting is just way too good and he wouldn't last long as a major leaguer. Then comes his defense. RF in Fenway isn't easy to play, yada yada yada.

17. Pimentel- He's still just 21, but he was so bad this year that he threw less innings than he did in 2010 because he got shelled. I'll cut him a break. It may have felt like a lost year, but these things happen. Young forAA, I think he's in the same situation as Britton.

18. Brentz- He's tricky. He rightfully mashed in the Sally as a 22-year-old, and hit well in Salem after the call-up, but the lack of plate discipline raises a bit of a road block. And to make matters worse, he's not a particularly good outfielder, either. Remember the hesitation with Reddick's discipline before he came up? Brentz is worse and doesn't have Reddick'sall-around ability. Future 4th outfielder to me.

19. Owens- It's not often you see a guy that's 6-7 with polish. I don't expect him to come out and set the world on fire -- that will happen as he grows into his body. But, there's a lot to be excited about.

20. Weiland- He is what he is. In a perfect world, he used to be a back-end kind of guy. And, he still may be. However, the adjustment all rookie pitchers struggle to go through is efficiency and how to pitch to big leaguers. I don't think he has the stuff to make it through thebattle alive, and believe he's best off as a low-leverage reliever. Maybe hisstuff will play out better in the pen where he can utilize it more. I'm just not banking on it.

21. Tejeda- Also just 21 in AA, he's got all the tools but absolutely has to do something about his approach. We knew being in the EL was going to berough on him, but he's shown he can make the necessary adjustments. Just another wait and see here.

22. Ramos- Didn't have a great year in the Sally as a 19 year old, butit wasn't terrible either. Has the tools and athleticism, just needs to hone his plate discipline.

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 26 October 2011 - 02:26 PM.

[SoxScout]

1	Will Middlebrooks	-	Expecting an up and down AAA campaign. Good enough the Sox will buy out Youk's '13, or move on in trade/DH.
2	Ryan Kalish	++	Injury free, I expect him to some point to patrol RF for the Sox.
3	Anthony Ranaudo	+	Not expecting a dominate year, but I expect more flashes. 2012 will be a positive.
4	Xander Bogaerts	-	Will probably struggle, people will overreact. Top talent in system, top 5 prospect no matter what.
5	Matt Barnes	++	I don't think his upside is as high as Ranaudo, but I can see him getting off to a better SAL start.
6	Ryan Lavarnway	--	I want him to be Napoli, but I don't think that is the case. I think his stock is at an all-time high point.
7	Jose Iglesias	+	.250/.310/.350
8	Garin Cecchini	+++	Will be interesting to read about his defense, but he will be able to handle the SAL.
9	Sean Coyle	+	For some reason I think he is underrated, seems like he will always be pushed and never "breakout" till AAA/MLB.
10	Bryce Brentz	-	Double-A is going to be a huge hurdle for his bat, we'll see how his offseason D training goes.
11	Blake Swihart	++	Would like to see him make Greenville, don't know if being a catcher will allow it to happen.
12	Drake Britton	+++	Probably too good, too soon after TJ. He will pitch well in CAR, and at some point be a good LH SP in AA at 23.
13	Brandon Jacobs	---	Expecting a major fall off in production, but won't even worry, this kid is going to take serious time, but his upside is freakish.
14	Jackie Bradley	++	It'll be nice to see him fully healthy. I expect a fast mover though the system and a future MLB player.
15	Kyle Weiland	+	Could be a Sox bullpen arm not too far into the 2012 season.
16	Felix Doubront	+	Will he ever put it together? No wipeout pitch, better bet as a 5th SP than a shut-down RP.
17	Alex Wilson	-	I'd like to see him put into the pen immediately, maybe 2 IP stints early, working towards the AAA CP role.
18	Oscar Tejeda	++	He'll repeat AA and I think it will do him good. 10-15 homers with a better batting average and people will like the 22 year old again.
19	Kolbrin Vitek	+	Everyone says he. will. hit. Time to do it if he starts off in CAL for another season. May be pushed to AA.
20	Stolmy Pimentel	+++	So young, such good stuff, miserable AA debut as the youngest pitcher in the league. He will bounce back nicely.
21	Miles Head	-	A full CAR season may not look as pretty as his Greenville numbers, but this kid will hit.
22	Henry Ramos	+	Every tool you want, like Jacobs, he is a player you are better off checking in on in a few seasons.
23	Cody Kukuk	+	He will throw a pitch for us, his stock will go up.
24	Henry Owens	+	He will throw a pitch for us, his stock will go up.
25	Raul Alcantara	+	Will be a fun follow if he is sent to Greenville, will probably be held back an open up in Lowell's rotation.

From like 20 on I went with young an upside, just the way I look at prospects. Between 20 and 35 I really think you could justify so many players from all different types of current status. Workman, Tazawa, Ramirez, Gomez, Price, Montas... Jerez, Perkins, Renfroe, De la Cruz, Vinicio, Vazquez... ect ect. Really any of those guys mind as well be #22, and come July 1 could be knocking on the Top 10 if they perform.

For once I think I'm pretty optimistic... my 2012 stocks seem positive overall.

[tonyarmasjr]

Where do you guys stand on the Reddick v Kalish debate, now that Reddick has put up some decent numbers at the ML level? Where would you put him in your rankings?

[SoxScout]

Around 8th, and a prime trade candidate.

Sox farm should produce a very good to star every year or two, should allow you to trade for a very good to star player, and should have middling players who you can trade for other middling players that are more important to what you need. I think Reddick is in that category, but I've always been a Kalish guy.

Edited by SoxScout, 19 October 2011 - 05:45 PM.

[ClutchCarl13]

1. Xander Bogaerts I know this is aggressive, but he will probably be the highest prospect ranked on top 100 lists for the sox, has serious power, and I'm not sure that he can't stay at SS, very athletic
2. Ryan Kalish Injured, but 5 tool player, good discipline, almost a sure bet to be an MLB regular
3. Ryan Lavarnway Monster bat, strong arm, I think he will be able to stay at catcher because of his arm, his MLE's right now say he would be the 2nd best catcher in baseball
4. Jose Iglelsias If he plays 20 UZR defense like I think he will, all he has to do is hit league average to get 5 WAR, i think he'll hit 10 runs below league average and have 4 WAR, but he could also be better than 20 UZR, and his ceiling for me is probably 5.5 WAR which is pretty good




5. Will Middlebrooks can play Gold glove caliber defense, can hit 20 homers and hit .300. Bad plate discipline though, plate discipline is a big thing because those rates usually stay the same from minors to MLB, I'm holding him here until he gets above .370 OBP, which might take a long time.



6. Sean Coyle He's a beast, great defense, great plate discipline, young for his league, hits for a pretty good amount of power, I think his ceiling is actually higher than Brandon Jacobs' because he's a year and a month younger with much better defense at a much more scarce position. Okay, here is something, batting average dosen't stabilize until 1000 PA's, Coyle had a .247 BA, but he is young for his league, and if you regress 1/2 to the mean because Coyle had almost half 100 PA's, it is really like .254, and Coyle is young for his league, his plate discipline and home run rate numbers are actually better than Pedroia's, if Coyle can put up a .300 BA in the majors, which I think he can, I think his ceiling might be a Pedroia season, because his defense is a little worse, but better plate discipline and power, still a long way away though, and Xander has a higher ceiling than a Pedroia season, even though Pedroia put up 8 WAR, he did it in a lot of PA's I think Xander can put up better WAR/PA, but Coyle is all the way at 5 because there is almost no seperation between the top 6 in my eyes.

7. Anthony Ranaudo I actually think he has 2 starter potential, higher on his ceiling than most, but pitchers in single A are so risky I usually bump them down.

8. Bryce Brentz One of my favorite players in the system, like Lavarnway has monster power. He improved his plate discipline in Salem and hit .359 in Greenville



9.Matt Barnes I don't understand Barnes having such a low ceiling rated by Chris Mellen, some people are saying he would've gone 3rd overall in the 2010 draft, has a plus curve and throws in the mid to high 90's, i don't understand how that equals back of the rotation starter, he is at 9 for the same reason Ranaudo is at 7.
10. Brandon Jacobs toolsy outfielder with good results this year, but plays bad defense.
11. Garin Cecchini Still a very long way away, but a very high ceiling 3rd baseman.
12. Alex Wilson I don't get him being lumped in with Weiland and Doubront, much better than those two. He has pretty good stuff, and the best results of a pitcher in the Sox system. His floor is a decent reliever, maybe, if everything clicks for him he's a good 2 starter, but I see him more as a 3 or 4 or dominant closer.

13. Alex Hassan why? why? why is he so underrated? look, he put up a .404 OBP this year, and a tremendous walk rate of 13.9%, I mean seriously, this guy could be a Youk in LF with less power, and he could develop more power as Youk did late.

14. Kolbrin Vitek I really like his bat, I think the Carolina league seriously depressed his power numbers, and he hits for good average, I don't like that he has to move to the OF though.
15. Miles Head Was crushing the ball in greenville but slowed down in Salem, still very young, a great defensive 1st baseman and has a high ceiling.
16. Blake Swihart I have some serious issues with him, one players who are drafted straight out of HS with no experience are huge risks, two he was one of the Oldest high school hitters in the draft, and the guy at BP did a study showing the 5 youngest players have twice as much career value as the 5 oldest. So basically, Swihart would be as old as most juniors, try getting drafted as a high school junior if your not Bryce Harper.
17. Drake Britton Had a very bad year, but still very young and has for me, the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the organization, I think some of the struggles were due to him changing his delivery because the Sox told him to.
18. Kyle Weiland good numbers in AAA pitched horribly in the majors, 25 years old, okay stuff
19. Felix Doubront probably better stuff than Weiland but was really lazy this year.
20. Stolmy Pimentel his numbers were even worse than Britton, but still has very good stuff.
21. Raul Alcantara still really far away, but has tremendous numbers in the GCL and a very good FB/SL combo. Still very projectable
22. Junichi Tazawa has better stuff than weiland or Doubront but just coming off TJ surgery
23. Lars Anderson I know people hate him but still has tremendous plate discipline, and there's still the super outside chance he changes his swing and hits 35 homers, he probably wont, but Daric Barton put up a 5 WAR season.
24. Jackie Bradley Jr. A bunch of people are saying he can reach the Majors next year, he would be a prototypical leadoff hitter as great OBP and good speed, great defense.
25. Christian Vazquez Also extremely underrated, voted the best defensive player in the entire Sox organization and best defensive catcher in the Sally league, put up a 133 wRC+.
26. Jose Vinicio great defensive SS with a high ceiling, has good bat speed, very fast.
27. Frank Montas Velocity! the most in the organization, can throw 100 mph. Only 18, if he stays a starter watch out.
28. Henry Ramos Toolsy outfielder who hasn't done anything yet.
29. Cody Kukuk high school pitchers are seriously bumped down on my lists, but some people are comparing him to Lester
30. Chris Balcom Miller He was the most unlucky pitcher in the minors this year, his peripherals are terrific 60% ground ball rate, insane.

HM Henry Owens, Keith Couch, Brandon Workman, Jeremy Hazlebaker

[RedOctober3829]

Thanks for picking an extreme outlier that proves my point. First, Harper used a wood bat. It was part of his pre-draft hype. Second, Harper is clearly an atypical draft prospect - a high school age player who most, if not all, serious baseball fans saw swing a wood bat before he was drafted. Third, Harper was hyped as a "generational talent" - not an "average" draftee in any estimation.

Other than that, great example.

The point I was trying to make (and pay attention, cause you missed it the first time) is that 99% of us (i.e. SoSH minor league forum participants) have NOT SEEN ANY OF THESE DRAFTEES PLAY. All we've got is scouting reports and competition against guys who are working at Wal-Mart or attending PoliSci 305 tomorrow.

Top prospect lists are, IMO, useful when they compare players against similar competition. Bogaerts (to grab a name) can be comped to other guys, at the same age, in the same league, with at least a measure of reliability. The Sally League is "known" and provides a basis for comparison. However, Barnes (to grab a name) pitched against aluminum bats in the Big East. What was the competition like? Can he be compared (with any degree of accuracy) to Cole (who pitched in the "better" Pac-10)? Ranking recent draftees is, at best, a useless exercise. Until the guy actually plays against professional competition, it's all potential and projection - based on unequal competitive situations and equipment that is not legal in professional baseball.

A few years back, I railed on ranking Will Middlebrooks in the top 10 when he was drafted. He struggled to acclimate to professional baseball and fell off these lists for a couple seasons and was even discussed as a "failed" prospect. Uh, not so fast. He didn't deserve to be ranked in the top 10 when he was drafted and he wasn't a "failure" when he struggled to adapt to the professional game. He was developing in the professional game - competing against players with similar talent and ability for the first time.

Is Barnes a better "prospect" than Brandon Jacobs? Maybe, even probably. However, Jacobs has put up real evidence of his ability to actually PLAY professional baseball. Barnes might be the second coming of Koufax but he's done NOTHING professionally. Until he does, he doesn't make my list. He shouldn't make lists that purport to rank prospects on any basis of production. If it's pure potential, then just list the first round pick at #3 every season and be done with it. But most people mix the potential and the production and don't really see the difference between the two. Or worse, don't understand the difference between the two.

If the Red Sox drafted Bryce Harper, of course he'd be in everyone's top 5 - heck, he'd be in most people's top 2 or top 1. But they didn't draft the second coming of Mickey Mantle, groomed from age 16 to play professional baseball and practicing with a wood bat in anticipation of his eventual draft status. Matt Barnes pitched at UConn, to unknown competition wielding aluminum bats. I have no fucking idea if he's any good (I assume he is, the baseball ops folks haven't fucked up many) but is he the next Jon Lester or the next Caleb Clay? Or the next Michael Bowden? Or Brian Rose? (I can keep going...)

It's difficult to evaluate high school prospects, but college prospects are much easier. Summer wooden bat leagues such as the Cape, Woodlands, Alaskan, NECBL, etc. give scouts opportunities to see the top college competition play against each other with hitters using wood.

Regarding your issue with putting drafted prospects on lists with players that have already played pro ball, isn't this the issue with any prospect? No one knows how prospects are going to be established major league players or busts until they prove themselves. All you have to go on is judging how the prospect drafted stacks up talent-wise with those already in the system. Barnes pitched on the Cape the last two summers plus he pitched for Team USA in addition to what he did at UConn so he's pitched against high-quality competition. His stuff warrants him being a top 10 prospect in the Red Sox organization until proven otherwise.

[soxfan121]

Regarding your issue with putting drafted prospects on lists with players that have already played pro ball, isn't this the issue with any prospect? No one knows how prospects are going to be established major league players or busts until they prove themselves. All you have to go on is judging how the prospect drafted stacks up talent-wise with those already in the system. Barnes pitched on the Cape the last two summers plus he pitched for Team USA in addition to what he did at UConn so he's pitched against high-quality competition. His stuff warrants him being a top 10 prospect in the Red Sox organization until proven otherwise.

So let's suppose that Barnes blows out an elbow ligament in ST, requires TJ surgery and misses the season. Is he still a top 10 prospect, based solely on draft/pedigree? If so, why didn't Caleb Clay, in a much shallower minor league system, stay a top 10 prospect? It was because the "shine" of his draft status had faded and he was being evaluated in comparison with others of a similar pedigree and professional results.

I've never seen Barnes pitch. I can read his stats and while the Cape League, or Team USA or UConn might be "high-quality competition" - no one would (or should) argue that any of those are the equal of the South Atlantic League, where every player is a professional, every player has pedigree and every player can be judged in equal circumstances.

Again, I will not and have not said Matt Barnes isn't a prospect. I haven't said he "sucks". I haven't said he's, well, anything. I look forward to seeing him pitch, seeing him succeed, seeing him EARN a spot in the top 10 prospects. Until then, my list will be comprised of players who have swung a bat in anger or thrown a pitch with professional purpose. There's more than enough guys with a professional track record to judge.

YMMV - I may have been too strong in my original posts on this matter. Of course people are free to draw up these lists with any criteria they select. I'm only advocating one possible way of choosing your criteria.

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

So let's suppose that Barnes blows out an elbow ligament in ST, requires TJ surgery and misses the season. Is he still a top 10 prospect, based solely on draft/pedigree? If so, why didn't Caleb Clay, in a much shallower minor league system, stay a top 10 prospect? It was because the "shine" of his draft status had faded and he was being evaluated in comparison with others of a similar pedigree and professional results.

The other stuff you said is reasonable enough, but I can't really see where you're coming from here. If Barnes blows out an elbow ligament in spring training his prospect stock takes a hit because he, uh, had a serious injury, which might both have a directly negative impact on his future success (lost development time, permanent damage to the arm) and augur a future of injury-proneness. That's why Clay fell in the rankings, and that's why John Lamb will not rank nearly as high in people's offseason rankings this year as he did in 2011.

Edited by The Best Catch in 100 Years, 19 October 2011 - 09:06 PM.

[soxfan121]

The other stuff you said is reasonable enough, but I can't really see where you're coming from here. If Barnes blows out an elbow ligament in spring training his prospect stock takes a hit because he, uh, had a serious injury, which might both have a directly negative impact on his future success (lost development time, permanent damage to the arm) and augur a future of injury-proneness. That's why Clay fell in the rankings, and that's why John Lamb will not rank nearly as high in people's offseason rankings this year as he did in 2011.

There's a 40 year track record of pitchers with talent recovering and sometimes pitching better after TJ. Frankly, TJ is only "serious" in the time required to rehab. And while missed development time is important - he still would not have done anything professionally, which is my point.

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

There's a 40 year track record of pitchers with talent recovering and sometimes pitching better after TJ. Frankly, TJ is only "serious" in the time required to rehab.

This is stretching the truth a little bit. The recovery rate from TJ is high, but it's 85-92% for elite pitchers, not virtually 100%. Hence, if you have Tommy John surgery, the chance you'll fulfill your potential, i.e., your prospect stock, is going to take a hit. Also, as Dr. Reinold says in the article I linked above, it is simply a misconception that pitchers improve in any absolute way after Tommy John surgery. Anyway, sorry to derail the thread.

Edited by The Best Catch in 100 Years, 19 October 2011 - 10:51 PM.

[Quintanariffic]

There's a 40 year track record of pitchers with talent recovering and sometimes pitching better after TJ. Frankly, TJ is only "serious" in the time required to rehab. And while missed development time is important - he still would not have done anything professionally, which is my point.

Sincerely,

Kris Johnson


PS - How is it that you're so sure he wouldn't have done anything professionally? Did you see Clay's stuff in any of his 21 IP at Lowell prior to his TJ?

[soxfan121]

PS - How is it that you're so sure he wouldn't have done anything professionally? Did you see Clay's stuff in any of his 21 IP at Lowell prior to his TJ?

You misunderstood - I was referring to Barnes. As in, "If this scenario were to come to pass, Barnes still would not have done anything professionally."

Pronouns - gotta be clear wit 'em.

Edited by soxfan121, 20 October 2011 - 08:37 AM.

[C4CRVT]

From like 20 on I went with young an upside, just the way I look at prospects. Between 20 and 35 I really think you could justify so many players from all different types of current status. Workman, Tazawa, Ramirez, Gomez, Price, Montas... Jerez, Perkins, Renfroe, De la Cruz, Vinicio, Vazquez... ect ect. Really any of those guys mind as well be #22, and come July 1 could be knocking on the Top 10 if they perform.

For once I think I'm pretty optimistic... my 2012 stocks seem positive overall.

Scout, I noticed that you've left off Anderson and Hassan from your rankings or even the HM list (37 total players named). I'm wondering why. They're both "old-ish" high floor prospects with good on base skills, middling defense who've (in Lars anyway) shown flashes of above average power. I don't pretend to be a prospect expert but both guys look (to me anyway) like guys who have a better than 35%?) chance to be average player (age 27-31 seasons) and who's ceiling is an above average player.

What I'd like to know is what's an average MLB player's development curve look like (shaky supposition on my part that they'd at some point be average MLB players) and is there a red flag in their numbers (or tools) that suggests it's unlikely to be a reasonable application. It seems like if this was applied to either of these guys they're both project as MLB regulars in their peak seasons. In my time watching the team closely, most of what we've seen for guys come out of the minors are guys who end up being above average players who burst on the scene as 24 year olds after rising quickly through the minors. There must be a fair number of players who don't get a job as a regular until age 26 seasons. So what is it about these guys that says to you that they can't improve at an average MLB rate for the next 3 years (or are you just that high on the other 37 guys you rank)?

I guess what I'm getting at is, what if Lars puts up a .285/.395/.470 line in Pawtucket? Is that really that unlikely? We know his power ceiling is pretty high if he ever gets comfortable attacking mistake pitches. We know he has good OBP skills.Given his track record, isn't a rebound to his previous career track at least modestly likely? And how does a consistent .400 OBP guy like Hassan not end up being ranked?

I'm not calling you out so please don't take it that way. I'm truly curious as to why you (or anyone else who's down on them) think there's so little cause for optimism with these two.

[Super Nomario]

I guess what I'm getting at is, what if Lars puts up a .285/.395/.470 line in Pawtucket? Is that really that unlikely? We know his power ceiling is pretty high if he ever gets comfortable attacking mistake pitches. We know he has good OBP skills.Given his track record, isn't a rebound to his previous career track at least modestly likely? And how does a consistent .400 OBP guy like Hassan not end up being ranked?

When you refer to Anderson's track record, what are you talking about? His last elite season was 2008; the last three years have been mediocre. At the start of the stretch, he was young enough to expect improvement, but it didn't happen, and now he's at the point where the age curve starts to flatten out.

[SoxScout]

Those two could have been on the mentioned list, and are, I just didn't list everyone. My list is always about upside, highest ceiling or highest peak trade value. Some people have Anderson, Hassan... the Navarro's in the world in Top 10 because they are probably going to reach the big leagues and even maybe start for someone in a certain situation. I'm not very excited over that. One of those guys got us a utility IF, another would have got us what, like 50% of Harden (with Workman)? I'm not looking for AAAA players, which I think they are, but they aren't organizational guys either.

[smastroyin]

I'm surprised so many people don't have Bradley in the top 25. Even soxprospects I think probably has him too low, though I know college hitters with not a lot of power potential aren't going to get much hype.

[C4CRVT]

When you refer to Anderson's track record, what are you talking about? His last elite season was 2008; the last three years have been mediocre. At the start of the stretch, he was young enough to expect improvement, but it didn't happen, and now he's at the point where the age curve starts to flatten out.

Slg by year:
2007:.446
2008:.517
2009:.345
2010:.461
2011:.422

I'm suggesting that he has shown flashes of power. Maybe that was a mirage of Lancaster. When he first arrived at Portland, that didn't seem to be the case. When he started 2010 at Portland, that didn't seem to be the case. I'm curious what the age curve is (as I was asking in my most recent post). He's a selective hitter with a good build for a power hitter for whom a surge in his power number seems like it shouldn't come as a huge surprise. Maybe I have some loose screws. Would a .470 look out of place as the next number in that sequence for a 23 year old repeating AAA? I'm not being sarcastic, I'm actually asking the question.

Edited by C4CRVT, 26 October 2011 - 04:09 PM.

[Super Nomario]

Slg by year:
2007:.446
2008:.517
2009:.345
2010:.461
2011:.422

I'm suggesting that he has shown flashes of power. Maybe that was a mirage of Lancaster. When he first arrived at Portland, that didn't seem to be the case. When he started 2010 at Portland, that didn't seem to be the case. I'm curious what the age curve is (as I was asking in my most recent post). He's a selective hitter with a good build for a power hitter for whom a surge in his power number seems like it shouldn't come as a huge surprise. Maybe I have some loose screws.

I guess I'm getting hung up on the phrase "track record," which I would define as "a history of sustained success." To me, that doesn't describe Anderson's career to date.

By "the age curve," I mean that younger players tend to make more dramatic strides, and with players on average peaking around 27, improvement tends to be pretty modest once a guy is 24-25. (http://www.tangotiger.net/aging.html) You suggested Lars might hit .286/.395/.470 next year, which would be a big step forward - but it's only a .249/.339/.399 MLE (using 500 AB, 85 BB / 5 HBP, 32 2B, 20 HR), and projecting an average aging puts him at .264/.372/.429 at the age of 27. That's not bad, but it's not starting at 1B in Boston.

[Eric Van]

You suggested Lars might hit .286/.395/.470 next year, which would be a big step forward.

Lars was hitting .247 / .356 / .361 in 340 PA on July 2. From then on, he hit .291 / .388 / .507 in 239 PA. So he's already taken that step.

His K and BB rates were essentially unchanged, but his HR/Contact went from .018 to .064, and his BABIP from .313 to .336. He just started to hit the ball hard again.

While we're on the subject ...

Derrik Gibson was hitting .208 / .274 / .292 in 299 PA on July 14, then hit .292 / .390 / .327 in 200 PA the rest of the way. He's still very much a prospect.

Jeremy Hazelbaker was hitting .234 / .333 / .370 in 270 PA at Portland on July 28, then hit .328 / .385 / .563 in 130 PA the rest of the way (and was 15 for 18 stealing).

Last year's strong finishes by Chiang and Reddick were predictive, so I wouldn't dismiss any of these as just luck.

[Super Nomario]

Lars was hitting .247 / .356 / .361 in 340 PA on July 2. From then on, he hit .291 / .388 / .507 in 239 PA. So he's already taken that step.

His K and BB rates were essentially unchanged, but his HR/Contact went from .018 to .064, and his BABIP from .313 to .336. He just started to hit the ball hard again.

That's interesting. Of course he finished very hot in '08 as well (in Portland) and then proceeded to stink on ice for the Sea Dogs the following season.

Lars was hitting .
While we're on the subject ...

Derrik Gibson was hitting .208 / .274 / .292 in 299 PA on July 14, then hit .292 / .390 / .327 in 200 PA the rest of the way. He's still very much a prospect.

Jeremy Hazelbaker was hitting .234 / .333 / .370 in 270 PA at Portland on July 28, then hit .328 / .385 / .563 in 130 PA the rest of the way (and was 15 for 18 stealing).

Last year's strong finishes by Chiang and Reddick were predictive, so I wouldn't dismiss any of these as just luck.

It's tough to argue Reddick had much of a carryover from a hot finish when he started the year so poorly in Pawtucket this season (though some of that looks like a BABIP fluke). At any rate, we would need a much larger study to see if strong second-half finishes are more predictive than overall season numbers. The plural of anecdote isn't data.

[Jeff Van GULLY]

Lars was hitting .247 / .356 / .361 in 340 PA on July 2. From then on, he hit .291 / .388 / .507 in 239 PA. So he's already taken that step.

His K and BB rates were essentially unchanged, but his HR/Contact went from .018 to .064, and his BABIP from .313 to .336. He just started to hit the ball hard again.

I did a quick and dirty look into Lars 1st/2nd half performances back in August and Lars seemed to be a 2nd half hitter in 2008, 2010 and 2011.

Lars Anderson 1st/2nd half

2008 LAN/POR	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
May/June	0.310	0.410	0.487	0.897
July/August	0.326	0.434	0.562	0.996
2010 PAW
May/June	0.224	0.319	0.382	0.701
July/August	0.304	0.371	0.475	0.846
2011 PAW
Pre All-star	0.252	0.355	0.389	0.744
Post All-star	0.288	0.396	0.482	0.878

I just updated it for the end of the 2011 season. Should be noted that he showed a reverse split in 2009. It was such a weird year for him statistically that I'm not sure if we can use that season to dismiss what could be a trend, even with the amount of at bats that year.

Nevertheless, it seems that Lars' trade value should always be highest in the off-season due to his strong finishes to the year. Whereas during the trade deadline, his usual cold starts to the season may have depressed his value.

Edited by Jeff Van GULLY, 27 October 2011 - 10:18 AM.

[C4CRVT]

I guess I'm getting hung up on the phrase "track record," which I would define as "a history of sustained success." To me, that doesn't describe Anderson's career to date.

By "the age curve," I mean that younger players tend to make more dramatic strides, and with players on average peaking around 27, improvement tends to be pretty modest once a guy is 24-25. (http://www.tangotiger.net/aging.html) You suggested Lars might hit .286/.395/.470 next year, which would be a big step forward - but it's only a .249/.339/.399 MLE (using 500 AB, 85 BB / 5 HBP, 32 2B, 20 HR), and projecting an average aging puts him at .264/.372/.429 at the age of 27. That's not bad, but it's not starting at 1B in Boston.

That's right in the middle of the pack for starting first basemen (fangraphs). And I don't think it's a huge leap. I think that's (part of) my point. The leap he has to take to be an average starting 1B isn't that big. Given that he just turned 24 I'd think his ceiling is still a top 8ish 1B man in the league (3.5 fWAR) isn't it? Again, I mean that as a real question. Anyone that can tell me what his actual ceiling is, I'm all ears.

My other point is why is this guy (age 22 season at A,AA and AAA):
.285/.328/.506 HR_23 BB_26 K_114
ranked #1 on soxprospects when this guy (age 22 season at A, AA and AAA):
.274/.349/.461 HR_15 BB_51 K_125
has fallen off the map despite raising his OBP 20 points last season (I know I cherry picked the one stat he progressed on, but it's an important one).
I know there's a positional adjustment and that WMB's defense is projected to be better than average but does it really make that much difference?

I'm trying to learn more about what goes into prospect rankings. Lars and Hassan look like very nice players who's ceilings on their peak seasons are fringe all-star but for whom being a valuable everyday player seems not-too-far off the projection path. Some of the guys ranked way above them seem like a worse bet to ever reach MLB and who's ceiling isn't appreciably higher. Unless Hassan's ceiling is Darnell McDonald in which case, ok, that's that.

How does Vitek rank above these guys? He's 22 (he'll be 23 before the season starts) and had 3 HR and a .350 OPB in a full season of high A ball.
Brentz is 22 (he'll be 23 in Dec) and has half a season in high A. If he puts up Hassan's 2011 season (.291/.404/.456) in Portland, would he drop to #24?

I'm really curious about this stuff.

[Super Nomario]

That's right in the middle of the pack for starting first basemen (fangraphs). And I don't think it's a huge leap. I think that's (part of) my point. The leap he has to take to be an average starting 1B isn't that big. Given that he just turned 24 I'd think his ceiling is still a top 8ish 1B man in the league (3.5 fWAR) isn't it? Again, I mean that as a real question. Anyone that can tell me what his actual ceiling is, I'm all ears.

My other point is why is this guy (age 22 season at A,AA and AAA):
.285/.328/.506 HR_23 BB_26 K_114
ranked #1 on soxprospects when this guy (age 22 season at A, AA and AAA):
.274/.349/.461 HR_15 BB_51 K_125
has fallen off the map despite raising his OBP 20 points last season (I know I cherry picked the one stat he progressed on, but it's an important one).
I know there's a positional adjustment and that WMB's defense is projected to be better than average but does it really make that much difference?

Improving his OBP 20 points and not improving his power at all is a disappointing second season at AAA. Prospects are players by definition who need to improve to play at the major league level. Lars just hasn't improved much over the past three seasons, and accordingly his prospect star has dimmed. Could he still develop 30+ HR power and .400 OBP? I wouldn't rule it out, but the likelihood of him reaching that ceiling gets lower and lower with each passing mediocre season.

There have certainly been questions raised about Middlebooks in this thread, specifically whether he's going to hit for enough average to offset his low walk rate. There is a big difference between above-average D at 3B and mediocre D at 1B.

I'm trying to learn more about what goes into prospect rankings. Lars and Hassan look like very nice players who's ceilings on their peak seasons are fringe all-star but for whom being a valuable everyday player seems not-too-far off the projection path. Some of the guys ranked way above them seem like a worse bet to ever reach MLB and who's ceiling isn't appreciably higher. Unless Hassan's ceiling is Darnell McDonald in which case, ok, that's that.

How does Vitek rank above these guys? He's 22 (he'll be 23 before the season starts) and had 3 HR and a .350 OPB in a full season of high A ball.
Brentz is 22 (he'll be 23 in Dec) and has half a season in high A. If he puts up Hassan's 2011 season (.291/.404/.456) in Portland, would he drop to #24?

I'm really curious about this stuff.

I would love Hassan to do well, as a local kid, but he's got an uphill climb. He isn't strong enough defensively to play CF and he hasn't hit for the kind of power you need out of CF (nor does he have the speed to be a Crawford-type). He's not going to get any faster, so basically he needs to develop 20-HR power. It can happen (Youkilis never hit even 10 HR in a minor league season), but it's not likely.

[Eric Van]

That's interesting. Of course he finished very hot in '08 as well (in Portland) and then proceeded to stink on ice for the Sea Dogs the following season.

It's tough to argue Reddick had much of a carryover from a hot finish when he started the year so poorly in Pawtucket this season (though some of that looks like a BABIP fluke). At any rate, we would need a much larger study to see if strong second-half finishes are more predictive than overall season numbers. The plural of anecdote isn't data.

ITA, which is why I said the strong finishes shouldn't be dismissed, which isn't the same as saying they should be regarded as necessarily meaningful. If no one could remember a finish seeming to be predictive, we'd view these strong finishes differently.

Your Reddick point underlies the difficulty of discriminating between a real improvement or decline, and a mere hot or cold streak (in this case, the former was probably masked by the latter at the start of this year). (When the Sox picked up Tony Clark, it was after an incredibly awful finish the year before. That proved to be due to an injury that carried over.)

[thestardawg]

While we're on the subject ...

Derrik Gibson was hitting .208 / .274 / .292 in 299 PA on July 14, then hit .292 / .390 / .327 in 200 PA the rest of the way. He's still very much a prospect.

Last year's strong finishes by Chiang and Reddick were predictive, so I wouldn't dismiss any of these as just luck.

A .327 Slugging makes one a prospect?

So far Gibson has shown less power than Jason Tyner. Has any major league baseball player been able to maintain a high or even league average OBP with a slugging so terribly bad?