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#1 Phragle


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Posted 19 August 2011 - 08:42 AM

I thought it'd be good to discuss our top prospects now that the trade deadline transactions are completed and the new draftees have been signed. Here are mine.


1. Middlebrooks
2. Barnes*
3. Iglesias
4. Ranaudo
5. Kalish
6. Bogaerts
7. Lavarnway
8. Swihart*
9. Brentz
10. Doubront
11. Coyle
12. Weiland
13. Jacobs
14. Britton
15. Head
16. JBJ*
17. CBM
18. Wilson
19. Tejeda
20. Vitek

Honorable mentions:
Alcantara
Anderson
Tazawa
Stroup

* Recent draftees


The way I rate prospects is by their upside, their probability of reaching their upside, and their floor, in that order. It's no secret that the upside of our farm system is in Salem and below right now, and my rankings reflect that.

I'm obviously high on the recent draftees, but I was before the draft too. The FO ended up picking some of the players I liked most. I'm on record for saying things like Barnes would be the perfect scenario with pick 19, and that I really like Swihart too. I also said I'd pick JBJ (Jackie Bradley junior, and Owens under the right circumstances.

Here are my opinions on some of they placements you may not agree with.

Barnes- While his numbers were not great even in the Big East, his tools were. I'll take tools over results every day, and I think most scouts will too. He has a great frame that is projectable, an electric fastball, and really good breaking pitches. His fastball is already a big league pitch, off the top of my head only Bard and Papelbon throw harder in the organization. It's been clocked up to 98, sits around 94mph, and has good late run on it.

Iglesias- He plays perfect defense and has the bat speed to come around as a hitter. He'll never be a power hitter, but his problem is pitch recognition which is ok for a 21 year old SS in triple A. He'll figure it out.

Bogaerts- He has unprecedented power numbers for an 18 year old SS in the SAL. He has a .254 IsoP. Forget shortstops, that's the best since Mike Stanton, and better than Bryce Harper's .236. He is one of the best hitters in the system, but we don't know where he is going to end up on defense.

Swihart- Elite prospect, blue chipper, and maybe the highest upside in the system, but he is far away and not a sure thing to stick at catcher.

Coyle- Stud, he does everything right.

Britton- I'm not giving up on him. With the stuff he has his confidence will come around.

Head- Has an elite bat, but he needs to have one because he is a 1B or a DH.

JBJ- Injury and a down year keep him from being on of our best prospects. If he had gone in Ranaudo's draft class we would have been perhaps a top five pick, but he wasn't draft eligible. His junior year he underperformed compared to his sophomore season, and then broke a bone is his wrist all but ending his season. I have to place him down here because of the bad year.

CBM- Age advanced sinker ball pitcher holding his own in AA, but he needs to build stamina and develop a better breaking ball.

Wilson- I'm not that impressed by him. He is almost 25 (October) and just has his first AAA start.

Who are your top prospects?

Edit: Formatting

Edited by phragle, 19 August 2011 - 08:50 AM.


#2 amfox1

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Posted 19 August 2011 - 09:13 AM

My top 20 (current age/level)

1. Middlebrooks (22/AA)
2. Kalish (23/AAA)
3. Ranaudo (21/A+)
4. Iglesias (21/AAA)
5. Lavarnway (24/BOS)
6. Bogaerts (18/A)
7. Weiland (24/AAA)
8. Swihart (19)*
9. Doubront (23/AAA)
10. Brentz (22/A+)
11. Barnes (21)*
12. Jacobs (20/A)
13. A.Wilson (24/AAA)
14. Tejeda (21/AA)
15. Owens (19)*
16. Head (20/A+)
17. Coyle (19/A)
18. Cecchini (20/R/A)
19. Vitek (22/A+)
20. Bradley, Jr. (21)*

*2011 draftee

Just missed: Lin (22/AAA), Pimentel (21/A+), Anderson (23/AAA), Britton (22/A+), Raul Alcantara (18/R/A), Tazawa (25/AAA)

Edited by amfox1, 19 August 2011 - 09:13 AM.


#3 Buzzkill Pauley


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Posted 19 August 2011 - 11:28 AM

I don't have any unique way of comparing kids who have never played an inning of pro ball with those who are already established prospects.

That said, I'm happier that Theo signed JBJ than I've been about any college player taken since Ellsbury. If his wrist recovers 100%, he could be an absolute stud.

#4 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 19 August 2011 - 11:54 AM

I have a hard time with Iglesias being rated so highly. I know he has a great glove and is young for AAA, but a 225 / 273 / 245 line is beyond horrible. He needs to develop some level of patience and some ability to drive the ball (6 XBH, all doubles this year). Still really young, but quite a ways to go and he really hasn't shown anything with the bat yet.

Top 10, I'd probably go something like this...with the new draftees just outside the top 10..not sure where to put them, or Iglesias for that matter.

Middlebrooks
Kalish
Ranaudo
Brentz
Weiland
Bogaerts
Lavarnway
Coyle
Doubront
Jacobs

#5 The Best Catch in 100 Years

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Posted 19 August 2011 - 12:52 PM

My top 20

Ryan Kalish
Xander Bogaerts
Brandon Jacobs
Ryan Lavarnway
Sean Coyle
Matt Barnes
Will Middlebrooks
Kyle Weiland
Bryce Brentz
Felix Doubront
Blake Swihart
Miles Head
Anthony Ranaudo
Alex Wilson
Jackie Bradley
Jose Iglesias
Garin Cecchini
Chris Balcom-Miller
Henry Owens
Lars Anderson

First time doing one of these things, probably overvaluing ceiling, strike zone command and pitcher K/BB, and there may well be some logical errors in there. Some specific stuff on placements you might disagree with:

Kalish's injuries are a little worrisome, but I see him as a major league regular right now, with the potential to be a bit better than that. I don't think you can say that about anyone else in the system, and the other guys who I thought about putting #1 are much further away from the majors.

Bogaerts' power is just too good to ignore. The strikeout rate is a tiny bit worrisome, but he is still very young.

Jacobs' strike zone command and game power are coming around. Defensive value seems a little limited, but sky-high ceiling as a hitter; can't see much reason not to put him this high.

Middlebrooks at 7 might be controversial. I like the power and I like the defense, but I just don't think that the prognosis for a guy with a K/BB like his in AA is very good.

Edited by The Best Catch in 100 Years, 19 August 2011 - 12:53 PM.


#6 Scoops Bolling

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Posted 19 August 2011 - 12:55 PM

1. Middlebrooks (22/AA)
2. Kalish (23/AAA)
3. Ranaudo (21/A+)
4. Lavarnway (24/BOS)
5. Bogaerts (18/A)
6. Swihart (19)*
7. Barnes (21)*
8. Weiland (24/AAA)
9. Doubront (23/AAA)
10. Iglesias (21/AAA)

I almost put Brentz over Iglesias, but I'll give Iglesias the benefit of the doubt for now. That said, when a guy like Tyler Pastornicky is out OPSing you by 300 points at the same age, position, and level...there is definitely reason to worry.

#7 amfox1

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Posted 19 August 2011 - 01:15 PM

Middlebrooks has been promoted to AAA.

#8 Jeff Van GULLY

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Posted 19 August 2011 - 01:16 PM

Not a big fan of Iglesias; he makes Rey Ordonez look like Bret Boone.

1. Middlebrooks
2. Kalish
3. Lavarnway
4. Ranuado
5. Brentz
6. Doubront
7. X. Bogaerts
8. Jacobs
9. Barnes
10. Weiland
11. Coyle
12. Iglesias
13. Tejeda
14. Head
15. Swihart
16. Tazawa
17. Vitek
18. Cecchini
19. Britton
20. Wilson
21. Lin
22. Bradley
23. R. Alcantara
24. Owens
25. Anderson

Hon. Mention: Stolmy

#9 terrynever


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Posted 19 August 2011 - 01:32 PM

Middlebrooks has been promoted to AAA.

from the pawsox:

PAWSOX PLAYER MOVES - The PawSox today have added 3B Will Middlebrooks,
the best batting prospect in the Eastern League (according to Baseball
America) from Portland (AA) and also added LHP Greg Smith to their
roster as he was signed as a free agent and will make the start tonight
vs. Columbus.



Middlebrooks, 22, was hitting .302 in 96 games for Portland with 25 2B,
1 3B, 18 HR & 80 RBI. His 80 RBI lead the Eastern League while is
average is 8th best and his slugging pct. of .520 is 5th best in the EL.
When combined with a 4-game rehab stint he had in Lowell (short-A) at
the end of June (.333/3/6 in those 4 games), Middlebrooks overall is
batting .303 on the season (6th best in the Red Sox system) along with
21 HR (3rd) and 86 RBI (most among all Red Sox minor leaguers). He was
on Portland's disabled list from June 11-26 with a right triceps strain.

#10 Phragle


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Posted 19 August 2011 - 02:13 PM

17. Coyle (19/A)
18. Cecchini (20/R/A)

What does Coyle have to do to separate himself from Cecchini? You must be in love with Cecchini's upside, because all he has done since we have drafted him is 114 ABs in Lowell. I think he is very talented, but if he can't stay on the field and get ABs then what is the point?



To Rudy, Best Catch, and Van Gully: Have you guys seen Iglesias play? Everyone that has actually seen him play thinks he'll hit eventually. He has a really quick bat and a short swing, so the tools are there. You're probably under estimating how much age has to do with it. The last time he was age appropriate he had a .950 OPS in Lowell last year.


BTW SoxProspects has an updated list with the new draftees now. They said they were going conservative with the new guys.

#11 Snodgrass'Muff


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Posted 19 August 2011 - 02:36 PM

I'm excited about this group of draftees, but I have a hard time putting players who haven't swung a bat professionally or thrown a pitch as a pro ahead of guys who are actively succeeding in the system. Tools count for a lot, but we've seen plenty of toolsy players flame out. That's the nature of player development, so my list will be light on recent draftees. That said, here's how I'd rank em at this point.

1. Middlebrooks
2. Ranaudo
3. Lavarnway
4. Kalish
5. Bogaerts
6. Brentz
7. Jacobs
8. Barnes* (Good pedigree, nice hard fastball, projectable frame)
9. Swihart *(Highly touted pre draft as one of the best high school athletes and hitters available)
10. Weiland
11. Coyle
12. Iglesias
13. Cecchini
14. Vitek
15. Head
16. Doubront
17. Wilson
18. Bradley Jr.* (Really high ceiling)
19. Owens
20. Pimentel

- Lavarnway and Kalish were tough to place relative to each other. Kalish is a much more complete player who will add a ton more defensive value, but Lavarnway's bat is so tantalizing. Plus, Kalish has had some trouble staying healthy, so I bumped him down to 4.

- Bogaerts is quickly becoming one of my favorite prospects. He's young, and a long way off, but about as exciting a player as the system had before August 15th. He's climbing quickly, and if he can stick at short, his bat will be absolutely huge.

- Brentz is my binky. His power ceiling is too much fun to think about and he's producing. It was really tough for me to rank him behind Bogaerts, but I settled on slotting him in just behind considering their current defensive positions.

- Barnes' placement is aggressive, but he's a big projectable righty with a hard fastball who is relatively well polished for a draftee. He won't be rushed to the bigs, as the rotation is pretty full up there, so he'll have time to refine his approach and work on his off speed pitches.

- Swihart was my favorite pick this year. He's a long way form the majors, but his ceiling is enormous, especially if he can stick at catcher. It should be a lot of fun watching him develop over the next three or four years.

- Iglesias is a great defensive player already, but until he starts swinging the bat at Pawtucket (or even back in Portland), I can't rank him in the top 10. He might turn it around and start hitting, but until he does he's not going to be a major league caliber player.

#12 Jed Zeppelin


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Posted 19 August 2011 - 03:12 PM

I'll get around to this in a few days but I know I will have a tough time because I have more than ten guys in my top ten, if that makes any sense.

#13 Jeff Van GULLY

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Posted 19 August 2011 - 03:24 PM

To Rudy, Best Catch, and Van Gully: Have you guys seen Iglesias play? Everyone that has actually seen him play thinks he'll hit eventually. He has a really quick bat and a short swing, so the tools are there. You're probably under estimating how much age has to do with it. The last time he was age appropriate he had a .950 OPS in Lowell last year.


BTW SoxProspects has an updated list with the new draftees now. They said they were going conservative with the new guys.


I'm more of a results oriented guy. I usually bury kids like Middlebrooks and Renfroe when they are first drafted and haven't shown much stats wise (and perhaps that's why I was infatuated with Jeff Corsaletti after his Greenville and Wilmington stints).

As for Iglesias, I haven't seen him play in person but I am aware of the scouting reports on his bat and his projectability(?). He has a .518 OPS in Pawtucket, which translates to .586 if he were in Hi-A Salem (.531 in Portland). That is truly awful and is a follow up to less-than-pedestrian .672 OPS in Portland last year. Will he improve? I would hope so because I can't see him hitting any worse. At the same time, this is a guy who would be sporting a .440 OPS in the bigs right now. I can't have him in my top 10 with a system that is so deep. Yes, he's young, and yes, he's improved his k/bb, but for me, Iglesias needs to show some better results to deserve a higher rank.

I also think citing a .950 OPS in Lowell in what was only 40 AB's is more easy to dismiss with the larger body of work he's accumulated, even if he has been young for his leagues.

Edited by Jeff Van GULLY, 19 August 2011 - 03:41 PM.


#14 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 19 August 2011 - 03:34 PM

With Iglesias, what is the upside? Guys like Jack Wilson and Omar Vizquel (the latter seems like a really optimistic best case scenario) put up an OPS of ~600 for his first 1000 big league PA's; guys like Rey Ordonez, Rey Sanchez, and Alex Gonzalez never hit. I get that scouts like him but the performance has been pretty horrific this season and he hasn't shown any progress as the year has gone on. 6 XBH in 335 PA's is laughable. Just not clear what the offensive upside is, how long it would take him to get there, etc.

Would Iglesias have been better off in Portland? Get that they want to push him and that he's young for the league but curious as to how this can possibly be good for his psyche.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 19 August 2011 - 03:36 PM.


#15 gammoseditor


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Posted 19 August 2011 - 03:42 PM

With Iglesias, what is the upside? Guys like Jack Wilson and Omar Vizquel (the latter seems like a really optimistic best case scenario) put up an OPS of ~600 for his first 1000 big league PA's; guys like Rey Ordonez, Rey Sanchez, and Alex Gonzalez never hit. I get that scouts like him but the performance has been pretty horrific this season and he hasn't shown any progress as the year has gone on. 6 XBH in 335 PA's is laughable. Just not clear what the offensive upside is, how long it would take him to get there, etc.

Would Iglesias have been better off in Portland? Get that they want to push him and that he's young for the league but curious as to how this can possibly be good for his psyche.


I think his upside is Elvis Andrus with an even better glove. If he can repeat his .672 OPS at the major league level, obviously not a given, he can be a 4.5-5 WAR player. Andrus OPS right now stands at .682. Projecting his fWAR over 162 games comes to 4.6. And his defense isn't even giving him that much of a bump. Iglesias certainly has a good chance to be a better defender than UZR has Andrus at this year. Is it really hard to see a 21 year old kid who has struggled in AAA in his first exposure getting better and putting up similar major league numbers as he did as a 20 year old in AA?

#16 The Best Catch in 100 Years

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Posted 19 August 2011 - 03:50 PM

I also think citing a .950 OPS in Lowell in what was only 40 AB's is more easy to dismiss with the larger body of work he's accumulated, even if he has been young for his leagues.

Agree with this; I don't think those 50 or so PA's have too much significance. All the same, after a quick glance at my list I definitely ranked him way too low. I don't think there's much reason to think he'll have good patience or power as a major-leaguer--a sub-.02 ISO is absolutely terrible, even for a 21-year-old in AAA, and the BB% has been consistently bad--but the low K-rate shows that he has some ability as a contact hitter. That combined with his superb defense and room for growth makes him a very solid prospect. Flip-flopper that I am, I think I'd put him between Middlebrooks and Weiland now that I've thought things over a bit more.

Phragle: Are you sure that "everyone" who watches Iglesias remains so optimistic about his future as a hitter? I have heard that he has good bat speed, hand-eye coordination, etc. too, but all of the major analysts seem pretty down on his hitting these days.

#17 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 19 August 2011 - 03:53 PM

Sure, it's possible. Keep in mind that when Andrus was 20, he put up 265 / 342 / 301 for the Texas Rangers. Andrus has shown patience at the plate and the ability to steal bases at a pretty high rate; not sure Iglesias can do that. It's frustrating that he hasn't gotten better (275 OBP first half, 248 second half). Challenging for me to rate a guy who has shown no patience or power to date as a top prospect no matter how good his glove may be.

#18 gammoseditor


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Posted 19 August 2011 - 04:03 PM

Sure, it's possible. Keep in mind that when Andrus was 20, he put up 265 / 342 / 301 for the Texas Rangers.


This is a good argument of why Andrus could become even better. I don't think it's an argument against Iglesias. The question is, Can a guy who hit well enough for a SS that was 20 years old in AA, and has struggled about as bad as you can at the plate as a 21 year old in AAA, regain his AA numbers in the future. I think a fair answer is, possibly. And if he does he can be a border line all star.

#19 amfox1

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Posted 19 August 2011 - 04:12 PM

What does Coyle have to do to separate himself from Cecchini? You must be in love with Cecchini's upside, because all he has done since we have drafted him is 114 ABs in Lowell. I think he is very talented, but if he can't stay on the field and get ABs then what is the point?


I am. Cecchini was last year's version of Swihart. Very advanced bat. He only got 131 AB+BB this year because of the freak injury but had already proven to be advanced for rookie ball. .298/.398/.500/.898 with 19/17 K/BB and 12 (of 14) steals, after, essentially, not playing since his junior year in HS. Much higher ceiling than Coyle IMO. If he were healthy, he would have been a mid-1st round pick. Defense was an issue this year but he's a gym rat, so I expect major improvement at 3B in the offseason, and I expect him to compete with Renfroe for a spot in Salem next year (BTW, I think he'll start in Greenville but move quickly).

Coyle has shown a lot of Pedroia-esque tendencies but needs more refinement of the strike zone. Still, a successful year for the 19YO in his first full pro year. Could potentially have a Salem infield of Head, Coyle, Bogaerts and Cecchini. That would be exciting.

#20 JakeRae


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Posted 19 August 2011 - 07:01 PM

I'll get around to this in a few days but I know I will have a tough time because I have more than ten guys in my top ten, if that makes any sense.

I'm in a similar place. I have at least a dozen players I want to put in the top 10. But, more than that, I find the current Sox farm system really hard to rank. For example, I can see an argument for a guy like Bogaerts anywhere from 1 to around 10. This exercise seemed a lot easier when we did it a month or two ago.

#21 Eric Van


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Posted 19 August 2011 - 09:32 PM

It's really hard to rank prospects without an accurate assessment of how good they are, right now, and that in turn is very difficult without a proper adjustment for age relative to level. I'm working on creating a set of MLEs for the hitters, but in the meantime, here's a ranking of every pitcher who can fairly be regarded as a prospect, informed by my pitching MLEs. A ton of thought when into this, factoring in not just performance but signing bonus and BA ranking history, and if I get a chance I'll add some comments. Guy in bold are significantly different than their rating at SP (red = better, black = worse).

1. Ranaudo, Anthony
2. Barnes, Matt
3. Weiland, Kyle
4. Tazawa, Junichi
5. Doubront, Felix
6. Wilson, Alex
7. Owens, Henry
8. Pimentel, Stolmy
9. Britton, Drake
10. Alcantara, Raul
11. Stroup, Kyle
12. Workman, Brandon
13. Bowden, Michael
14. Ramirez, Noe
15. Hernandez, Chris
16. Kukuk, Casey
17. Balcom-Miller, Chris
18. Younginer, Madison
19. Couch, Keith
20. Fields, Josh
21. Romero, Dioscar
22. Price, Matthew
23. Celestino, Miguel
24. Martin, Chris
25. Rivera, Manny
26. Cabral, Cesar
27. Gomez, Sergio
28. Garcia, Jason
29. Diaz, Luis
30. Spalding, Matt
31. Rice, Jason
32. Pressly, Ryan
33. Alcantara, Mario
34. Pena, Miguel
35. Garcia, Edwar
36. Huntzinger, Brock
37. Erasmus, Justin
38. Good, Zach
39. Cuevas, William
40. Clay, Caleb
41. Ruiz, Pete
42. Wilson, Tyler
43. Cervenka, Hunter
44. Parthemore, Renny
45. Dahlstrand, Jacob
46. Huijer, Swen
47. Velette, Raynel
48. Januario, Iago

Edit: I remembered that Celestino has been much better since mid-season, and moved him up a few notches.

Edited by Eric Van, 20 August 2011 - 01:53 AM.


#22 Plympton91


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Posted 19 August 2011 - 11:11 PM

This is a good argument of why Andrus could become even better. I don't think it's an argument against Iglesias. The question is, Can a guy who hit well enough for a SS that was 20 years old in AA, and has struggled about as bad as you can at the plate as a 21 year old in AAA, regain his AA numbers in the future. I think a fair answer is, possibly. And if he does he can be a border line all star.


Really? You're going to say that Iglesias is one of the best defensive shortstops of ALL-TIME? Because that's what it would take to be an all star with a 680 OPS.

Adam Everett scores out as a pretty fanstastic defensive shortstop; he put up OPS of 700 for a couple years in Houston, and a couple more years of OPS around 650, and he never sniffed an all-star game.

Right now, I'd say Iglesias projects out as Adam Everett, but with less power. So, hopefully the Red Sox can package Iglesias for a switch-hitting outfielder with 5 tool skills, only this time get one who believes in dinosaurs.

My number 1 prospect is Ryan Lavarnway, and there's not even a close 2nd.

The other prospect I'd put a lot lower than most is Anthony Ranaudo; he's only in single-A, not doing all that well, and reports from members here have hit topping out at 92-93. That puts him more in the class of Weiland and Wilson; not in the class of Buchholz and Lester. Given how good the hitters have been in the full season leagues, Ranaudo might well be the top pitcher in the system and still not crack my top 10.

#23 SpruceTrap

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Posted 19 August 2011 - 11:45 PM

I don't have any unique way of comparing kids who have never played an inning of pro ball with those who are already established prospects.

That said, I'm happier that Theo signed JBJ than I've been about any college player taken since Ellsbury. If his wrist recovers 100%, he could be an absolute stud.


I would like to second that. I'm also excited about what kind of a pitcher Kukuk will be in 2-3 years. 18 year old lefties who throw 95 and have a plus off-speed pitch don't grow on trees.

#24 JakeRae


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Posted 19 August 2011 - 11:56 PM

Well, here goes.

1. Middlebrooks
2. Lavarnway
3. Ranaudo
4. Kalish
5. Bogaerts
6. Iglesias
7. Barnes
8. Coyle
9. Jacobs
10. Brentz
11. Swihart
12. Cecchini
13. Head
14. Weiland
15. Tazawa
16. Doubront
17. Jackie Bradley Jr.
18. Che-Hsuan Lin
19. Alex Wilson
20. Henry Owens

HM: Oscar Tejeda, Kolbrin Vitek, Drake Britton, Stolmy Pimental, Raul Alcantara, Lars Anderson

Notes:

I still love Lin. He is just 22 and his approach at the plate is MLB ready as is his defense. Sadly, his hitting tool is not close to MLB ready and his power tool is unlikely to ever exist. If he can develop the hit tool, he can be a really valuable player.

My list makes it look like I am down on our pitching. This is partially true. But, mostly, I'm really high on our position prospects and can't justify the Weiland/Tazawa/Doubront clump any higher than they are.

Vitek looks like a glaring admission. But, he isn't an infielder and needs to show he really is a CF rather than a corner outfielder to start to climb up my list. I don't hate him, but someone needed to slide out of the top 20 and his defense pushes him out.

Size doesn't matter. That's all I have to say about my Coyle ranking.

Part of me feels Ranaudo is too high. Then, I remember what I thought about him when drafted. His pedigree isn't going to hold up his ranking for too long next year although I'm talking about a slide into the back half of the top 10 which is more where I would rank him based on his performance.

Finally, Lavarnway stands out as the old man amongst position players. The quality and quantity of young toolsy position players in the system is extraordinary.

#25 JakeRae


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Posted 20 August 2011 - 12:01 AM

Really? You're going to say that Iglesias is one of the best defensive shortstops of ALL-TIME? Because that's what it would take to be an all star with a 680 OPS.

Adam Everett scores out as a pretty fanstastic defensive shortstop; he put up OPS of 700 for a couple years in Houston, and a couple more years of OPS around 650, and he never sniffed an all-star game.

Right now, I'd say Iglesias projects out as Adam Everett, but with less power. So, hopefully the Red Sox can package Iglesias for a switch-hitting outfielder with 5 tool skills, only this time get one who believes in dinosaurs.

My number 1 prospect is Ryan Lavarnway, and there's not even a close 2nd.

The other prospect I'd put a lot lower than most is Anthony Ranaudo; he's only in single-A, not doing all that well, and reports from members here have hit topping out at 92-93. That puts him more in the class of Weiland and Wilson; not in the class of Buchholz and Lester. Given how good the hitters have been in the full season leagues, Ranaudo might well be the top pitcher in the system and still not crack my top 10.

Iglesias' defense has consistently been rated in the 75-80 range by scouts. I believe it was KG earlier this season who commented that he was one of something like three 80's in all of the minors. It's only a modest stretch to think that he will be an historically great defensive SS.

#26 SpruceTrap

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Posted 20 August 2011 - 12:26 AM

Iglesias' defense has consistently been rated in the 75-80 range by scouts. I believe it was KG earlier this season who commented that he was one of something like three 80's in all of the minors. It's only a modest stretch to think that he will be an historically great defensive SS.


I think people are expecting too much of Iglesias because of his defense. Defensively, he's major league ready and I think that makes people forget that he's a 21 year old in AAA. He doesn't have any power to speak of but he's a solid contact hitter who hit .350 in Lowell and .280 in Portland at the same age. If the Red Sox are smart, they'll give him another couple of years and let his bat come around in AAA.

#27 Billy R Ford


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Posted 20 August 2011 - 01:36 AM

Is Middlebrooks really a better prospect than Kalish? Last year, Kalish put up comparable numbers as a 22 yr old in AAA as Middlebrooks has done this year as a 22 yr old in AA. Kalish's AA numbers at the same age were also much higher. Is it because of Kalish's injuries this year?

I'll admit I've never been a huge fan of Middlebrooks- the power is there, but that .345 OBP doesn't jump off the page.

#28 Eric Van


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Posted 20 August 2011 - 02:11 AM

I don't have any unique way of comparing kids who have never played an inning of pro ball with those who are already established prospects.

What I did was try to find guys who got comparable bonuses and /or were ranked similarly in BA's Top 200 draft prospects, then see where those guys were ranked initially by BA, plus their subsequent ranking history relative to their performance. For instance, Owens was ranked 33 by BA and got slot 15 money, while Younginer was ranked 45 and got 31. Younginer was initially ranked the 6th best pitching prospect in the system after Kelly, Tazawa, Pimentel, Bowden, and Britton, so I used that to rank Owens a bit higher than SP does.

JBJ's pedigree is almost identical to WMB's, although they were drafted in very different rounds. WMB was ranked 36 by BA and signed for slot 31 money. JBJ was ranked 34 and signed for 30.

#29 someoneanywhere

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Posted 20 August 2011 - 06:32 AM

1. Kalish
2. Middlebrooks
3. Ranaudo
4. Lavarnway
5. Iglesias
6. Bogaerts
7. Weiland
8. Britton
9. Doubront
10. Brentz
11. Jacobs
12. Coyle
13. A.Wilson
14. Ramos
15. Cecchini
16. Tejeda
17. JBJ
18. Barnes
19. Pimental
20. Swihart

My primary criteria are upside, MLB-readiness, and age-for-level, in no particular concoction -- the leavening, so to speak, being personal observation. Some of these guys I have not seen; but I have seen most of them. Of the draft picks, I've seen JBJ over a few seasons, since he college-balled down here, and Barnes during the NCAA regionals and supers.

Of note:

Both Jacobs, who's on most people's lists, and Ramos, who's on no one's, are raw baseball players. But Ramos might have better baseball tools; unlike Jake, who at least has been around the game awhile, Ramos is still trying to find comfort with it. If it clicks for him, he will surpass Jacobs.

Britton: I'm not ready to pop his balloon. If anything, and in the abstract of course, I like what's happened to him this year. Here's a flamethrower who gets drafted, has TJ, and with kid gloves on has a stellar first year in Low A. So far he's thinking he can dominate. This year is his wake up. Either he commits or he does not. I'm ranking him on the hedge that he does. And if he does, he will be right back in everyone's top 5 next year.

JBJ: I'm surprised how many people talk about him as toolsy. He's not. He's just got skills that play up -- one of those guys who always seems to be in the middle of things and, defensively, gets to the right places in the right positions to make plays. (Actually a good comp for that, at least when he was in Greenville, was Ronald Bermudez.) Anyway, JBJ gets extra points for makeup. He's a dirt dog.

Swihart: Never having seen him, I would go higher on him if I was sure he was going to stay at C. I don't think anyone can be certain of that right now.

Edited by someoneanywhere, 20 August 2011 - 08:56 AM.


#30 Phragle


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Posted 20 August 2011 - 08:22 AM

I am. Cecchini was last year's version of Swihart. Very advanced bat. He only got 131 AB+BB this year because of the freak injury but had already proven to be advanced for rookie ball. .298/.398/.500/.898 with 19/17 K/BB and 12 (of 14) steals, after, essentially, not playing since his junior year in HS. Much higher ceiling than Coyle IMO. If he were healthy, he would have been a mid-1st round pick. Defense was an issue this year but he's a gym rat, so I expect major improvement at 3B in the offseason, and I expect him to compete with Renfroe for a spot in Salem next year (BTW, I think he'll start in Greenville but move quickly).

Coyle has shown a lot of Pedroia-esque tendencies but needs more refinement of the strike zone. Still, a successful year for the 19YO in his first full pro year. Could potentially have a Salem infield of Head, Coyle, Bogaerts and Cecchini. That would be exciting.

I don't disagree with any of that. If he does start in Greenville and sports an OPS around .850 or above, then he'll be on my fast track to the top 20 for sure. Until he does that there are too many other players the deserve to be on it IMO.

Really? You're going to say that Iglesias is one of the best defensive shortstops of ALL-TIME? Because that's what it would take to be an all star with a 680 OPS.

Yes, his defense is among the best in the game right now, and it can only improve. And who cares if he is an all-star? That's voted by fans and writers who love RBIs, and disregard defense. I don't care if he wins a GG either. That is an even worse award!

Both Jacobs, who's on most people's lists, and Ramos, who's on no one's, are raw baseball players. But Ramos might have better baseball tools; unlike Jake, who at least has been around the game awhile, Ramos is still trying to find comfort with it. If it clicks for him, he will surpass Jacobs.

Right, and when Ramos does that he'll definitely be on my top prospects list.



JBJ: I'm surprised how many people talk about him as toolsy. He's not. He's just got skills that play up -- one of those guys who always seems to be in the middle of things and, defensively, gets to the right places in the right positions to make plays. (Actually a good comp for that, at least when he was in Greenville, was Ronald Bermudez.) Anyway, JBJ gets extra points for makeup. He's a dirt dog.

So am I. I didn't want to burst anyones bubble, but he is more of a high floor prospect than a high ceiling one. His best tools are his arm, on base skills, and defensive reads. I see him projecting into a Denard Span type of player, but with a little more power. Definitely gets points for make-up.




#31 ji oh

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Posted 20 August 2011 - 08:26 AM

I'd like to suggest an unusual comp for Iglesias: Lavarnway. Partly Lavarnway 2009 at age 21, partly 2011 at 23-24.

Iglesias would be an above-average defensive SS right now at age 21, and would be an improvement over any of our 3 SSs (you could actually have him come in the game with Bard or Papelbon as a "closer" in September). He has a long way to go as a hitter, partly because of his physical slightness, but he's smart and working on his game and Sox people say he's making progress on his approach. And he's overcoming the fact that he came from another country, and has had to adjust.

Lavarnway at age 21 was a promising hitter doing very well at A-ball, but with severe doubts about his defense, mostly because of his physical clunkiness. But he's smart, and has worked hard on his defense and Sox people say he has made progress, but still has a way to go. His hot streak suggested he could be an above-average DH right now, but his overall stats suggest he would just be an OK DH now, though an above average offensive C. Plus, in terms of baseball, he's from another country, Yale, and has had to adjust.

Looking at Lavarnway at age 21, you'd have to say that Iglesias' chances of improving enough to be an adequate hitter, allowing us to get his outstanding glove on the field, are better than were the chances of Lavarnway's improving enough to be an adequate catcher, allowing us to get his fine bat in the lineup. Now in 2011, Lavarnway has progressed further, and seems not that far away from being an adequate catcher.

But his offensive upside is probably not as good as Iglesias' defensive upside--the chances that Iglesias will be a perennial gold-glover are better than the chances that Lavarnaway will be the best-hitting catcher in the game. He might not even become the best-hitting C on the Sox, given Salty's 2011. You could even say that Iglesias' D is as good as Lavarnway's hot streak.

Bottom line: Iglesias shouldn't now be near the top of a top ten, but he should be in a top ten or fifteen.

#32 John DiFool

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Posted 20 August 2011 - 09:05 AM

Is Middlebrooks really a better prospect than Kalish? Last year, Kalish put up comparable numbers as a 22 yr old in AAA as Middlebrooks has done this year as a 22 yr old in AA. Kalish's AA numbers at the same age were also much higher. Is it because of Kalish's injuries this year?

I'll admit I've never been a huge fan of Middlebrooks- the power is there, but that .345 OBP doesn't jump off the page.


That's symptomatic of the real problem, his 9-2 K-BB ratio. I believe (I'll go find a cite if need be) that hitters with poor K-BB ratios tend to translate poorly to the majors, which at the moment would probably be ~8-1 if he was called up right now, which is worse than just about any free-swinger of recent note (like Francoeur). I can't believe so many people are putting him 1st without realizing that, or caring, if they do.

#33 billy ashley

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Posted 20 August 2011 - 10:27 AM

It's old news, but the depth in Boston's system is amazing. While Boston lacks any elite talent close to the majors, they've got close to 50 prospects who are very interesting.

1. Middlebrooks (KL and KG mid season top 50's)
2. Kalish
3. Ranaudo (BA's mid season top 50
4. X. Bogaerts
5. Brentz (KG top 50)
6. Iglesias
7. Weiland (during a chat at BP, it was mentioned that he could possibly contend for a top 100 spot next year.)
8. Lavarnway
9. Wilson
10.Swihart


11. Barnes
12. Jacobs
13. Coyle
14. Head
15. Britton
16. Cecchini (I think he'd possibly be cracking the top ten if he didn't break his wrist)
17. Pimentel
18. Anderon
19. Tazawa
20. Hassan

HM:

Tejada
Bradley
Vitek
Workman
Owens
Ramos
Jerez
Perkins
Bowden
Stroup
Couch
Renfroe
Hernandez


Like I said before, the depth is astounding and that's after trading away solid C level prospects Fife and Chaing. There are going to be a lot of guys who flame out, but there's a ton of upside at the lower levels.

Right now, Boston has 8 prospects who could possibly appear in one of next season's top 100 lists (Law, KG, BA and JS). Three of them are likely locks to appear on at least 1 (Middlebrooks, Brentz and Ranaudo), two others seem fairly likely (Iglesias and Lavarnway) and then there's the grouping of guys who while it would be surprising to see them selected, it wouldn't appear totally out of left field (Weiland, Bogarts, Barnes, Swihart and Jacobs). What Boston lacks in top 50 talent, they more than make up with prospects that probably fall somewhere between 50-200.

#34 someoneanywhere

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Posted 20 August 2011 - 12:50 PM

That's symptomatic of the real problem, his 9-2 K-BB ratio. I believe (I'll go find a cite if need be) that hitters with poor K-BB ratios tend to translate poorly to the majors, which at the moment would probably be ~8-1 if he was called up right now, which is worse than just about any free-swinger of recent note (like Francoeur). I can't believe so many people are putting him 1st without realizing that, or caring, if they do.


One caveat to your caveat: WMB is a dedicated learner of the craft -- a guy who takes pride in, and talks openly about, professionalism and his desire to master it. Frenchy never bothered because he thought he didn't have to, and in some ways appears to have been enabled in that. On the other end of the spectrum is Reddick, who was told again and again to dial down the aggressiveness, didn't, and then finally woke up when he discovered the developmental people were serious. I'm not saying WMB will succeed at cutting the K/BB ratio, only that his makeup is primed for the constant refining of his approach. He won't have to be ordered or nagged, and he certainly won't need a message sent to him. And that's encouraging.

#35 Eric Van


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Posted 21 August 2011 - 12:15 AM

One caveat to your caveat: WMB is a dedicated learner of the craft -- a guy who takes pride in, and talks openly about, professionalism and his desire to master it. Frenchy never bothered because he thought he didn't have to, and in some ways appears to have been enabled in that. On the other end of the spectrum is Reddick, who was told again and again to dial down the aggressiveness, didn't, and then finally woke up when he discovered the developmental people were serious. I'm not saying WMB will succeed at cutting the K/BB ratio, only that his makeup is primed for the constant refining of his approach. He won't have to be ordered or nagged, and he certainly won't need a message sent to him. And that's encouraging.

I think that mischaracterizes Reddick's response, since his combined K + BB totals increased dramatically over his first three seasons, in fact reaching a peak higher than they are now. But his K/BB ratio got worse. I don;t think it was an unwillingness to attempt to improve, rather it was not understanding the concept they were trying to teach him. As a naturally super-aggressive hitter, it was awfully hard for him to learn selectivity within the strike zone, to learn to be somehow more patient without losing the aggression.

Your description of WMV, BTW, shows how much they emphasize makeup. I think they place a higher emphasis on it than any other organization, and when you combine that with excellent teaching, it explains the rather amazing success rate they've had with prospects*. It can't possibly be just talent assessment in drafting -- no one is that good.

*Beginning with Lester, you can use WAR to do a "they got the Nth best player in the whole draft with the Kth pick" and it's kind of astounding, e.g., Pedroia being one of the top 3 guys with the 65 pick -- and they've done this year after year.

#36 soxfan121


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Posted 21 August 2011 - 07:37 AM

Not a big fan of Iglesias; he makes Rey Ordonez look like Bret Boone.


100+ years of baseball history has shown that you can win with a SS who hits like Rey Ordonez, so long as he fields like Rey Ordonez (and the rest of the team is of sufficient quality). It also shows that it's nearly impossible to win with a all-bat, no-glove second baseman attempting to play SS.

I'm much more concerned that Iglesias learn to be a plus baserunner and a decent "productive out" hitter (right side, bunting, etc) I realize this skill set is poorly perceived by SoSH. If the guy fields the way he has & gets better with the glove, Iglesias still the most likely player in the Red Sox system to eventually nail down a full-time big league job.

These rankings are neat-o for dreaming about who might be the BEST if the player(s) all magically reach their potential. The flaw, year after year after year, is that not enough respect is paid to the players who have an obvious path to the big leagues and a skill set that would allow them to stay. A shortstop does NOT need to hit to become a productive, regular big leaguer, so any list that doesn't have Iglesias in the top 5 is a "look at the shiny baubles and how pretty they might become" exercise.

FWIW, because I'm lazy, I'm not going to write my yearly diatribe about ranking recent draftees ahead of guys who have, you know, DONE SOMETHING in professional baseball. 99% of people who draw up these lists haven't seen the players they're ranking enough to be taken seriously (I haven't either) and it's only magnified when a 1st round pick rockets into the Top 5 of one of these lists. Sorry. I'd prefer to know which 10 guys who have swung a wood bat or struck out a player with a wood bat have been most impressive against professional competition.

ETA: Up thread there's a post that derisively suggests Iglesias might become Ordonez, Rey Sanchez, Omar Vizquel, Alex Gonzalez, or Jack Wilson. Uh, great. If Iglesias develops into a guy who hits like Vizquel and fields like Vizquel I'd dance naked in Boston Common. Fuck, anyone of those "bad" examples had a 10+ major league career as a starter for a big league team. That might be the single most ignorant post in this forum, ever. Scoffing at a guy's "potential" because he might hit like Vizquel or Ordonez. Utterly ridiculous.

Edited by soxfan121, 21 August 2011 - 07:47 AM.


#37 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 21 August 2011 - 08:53 AM

Of course you can win with a good field, no hit SS. You can also win with a good hit, no field SS. You can also be one of the best teams in the league despite a back of the rotation with two of the worst starters in the league, what's the point? Iglesias could become a useful major leaguer, he could be excellent...just needs to learn to do everything but field.

My concern with him is, what is his upside..and how long till he gets there? Guys like Vizquel, Ordonez, etc., as good as they were, generally had OPS below 600 for the first 1,000+ PA's in their careers. Will a team with the Red Sox resources, a team that is always contending, going to tolerate that?

I can envision Iglesias having a long big league career, it's harder to imagine it happening with the Red Sox.

#38 The Best Catch in 100 Years

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Posted 21 August 2011 - 09:45 AM

FWIW, because I'm lazy, I'm not going to write my yearly diatribe about ranking recent draftees ahead of guys who have, you know, DONE SOMETHING in professional baseball. 99% of people who draw up these lists haven't seen the players they're ranking enough to be taken seriously (I haven't either) and it's only magnified when a 1st round pick rockets into the Top 5 of one of these lists. Sorry. I'd prefer to know which 10 guys who have swung a wood bat or struck out a player with a wood bat have been most impressive against professional competition.

I don't know what you're saying here. If the Red Sox had drafted, say, Gerrit Cole, or Danny Hultzen, or Anthony Rendon, you actually would not put him in the top ten because they haven't "DONE ANYTHING" in professional baseball? Granted, none of the recent draftees is nearly as good a prospect as any of those guys, but this whole I WANT TO SEE HIM SWING A WOOD BAT BEFORE I RANK HIM AHEAD OF A PROVEN PROFESSIONAL thing is still ridiculous.

ETA: Up thread there's a post that derisively suggests Iglesias might become Ordonez, Rey Sanchez, Omar Vizquel, Alex Gonzalez, or Jack Wilson. Uh, great. If Iglesias develops into a guy who hits like Vizquel and fields like Vizquel I'd dance naked in Boston Common. Fuck, anyone of those "bad" examples had a 10+ major league career as a starter for a big league team. That might be the single most ignorant post in this forum, ever. Scoffing at a guy's "potential" because he might hit like Vizquel or Ordonez. Utterly ridiculous.

This depends on how you value prospects. Obviously I'd be thrilled if Iglesias turned out like some of those examples, but you would seriously be really happy if he had Rey Ordoņez's career? For what it's worth, I think he'll be better than Ordoņez, but just because teams were willing to start a guy with a career wOBA of .259 doesn't mean he is good.

#39 John DiFool

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Posted 21 August 2011 - 10:22 AM

100+ years of baseball history has shown that you can win with a SS who hits like Rey Ordonez, so long as he fields like Rey Ordonez (and the rest of the team is of sufficient quality). It also shows that it's nearly impossible to win with a all-bat, no-glove second baseman attempting to play SS.


There's been plenty of good hitting, poor fielding SS's, like Miguel Tejada, Toby Harrah, or Julio Franco; not sure what you're trying to prove here. Wins are wins be they from a guy's glove or his bat. And Ordonez was barely above replacement for his career (0.6 WAR).

#40 URI


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Posted 21 August 2011 - 10:40 AM

100+ years of baseball history has shown that you can win with a SS who hits like Rey Ordonez, so long as he fields like Rey Ordonez (and the rest of the team is of sufficient quality).


The one year that a Rey Ordonez team made the playoffs proves this.

A shortstop does NOT need to hit to become a productive, regular big leaguer, so any list that doesn't have Iglesias in the top 5 is a "look at the shiny baubles and how pretty they might become" exercise. .


The Red Sox should wait until it's the 1960's to call him up then.

#41 tbrown_01923

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Posted 25 August 2011 - 01:23 PM

Late to the party (i know), but I want to contribute more around here and figured this is a good place to start. Commentary where I thought clarification might be needed.

1) Ryan Kalish
He has done it for half a season in the bigs, not letting his injuries influence my opinion of him,

2) Will Middlebrooks
K/bb has me off a little bit, but steady increse in average and slugging over three different levels is nice.

3) Ryan Lavarnway
Assuming he can sit behind the plate 2-4 tiems a week

4) Jose Iglesias
Not completely sure where to value defense in prospects

5) Xander Bogaerts

6) Anthony Ranaudo
I was expecting more... but he hasn;t beena failure

7) Matt Barnes
shiny new toy

8) Bryce Brentz

9) Brandon Jacobs

10) Kyle Weiland

11) Felix Doubront
I liked him too much last year to drop him further, for similar reasons to kalish. Although his attitude bears watching

12) Sean Coyle

13) Alex Wilson
Could he be a potential closer

14) Miles Head

15) Garin Cecchini
new toy

16) Blake Swihart
shiny new toy

17) Stolmy Pimentel
Bad year, but still super young

18) Drake Britton
Bad year, but still super young

19) Jackie Bradley

20) Oscar Tejeda
Intrigued by the first half of last year

Just off: Henry Ramos; Kolbrin Vitek;

#42 Jed Zeppelin


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Posted 26 August 2011 - 01:12 AM

My list is split into groups. The specific numbers are more or less interchangeable within the groups.

1. Middlebrooks - Very strong glove, strong present offensive skills with big potential, looks like a Beltre-type player to me
2. Kalish - Unfortunately wasn't able to build on his breakout year in 2010. Perhaps less pure upside than Reddick but projects as a more consistent and patient hitter with enough power to play RF, especially with his defensive abilities. Reddick has played well but I think as an MLB regular his line will look something like .260/.300/.450ish, not completely terrible but I see Kalish more in the .300/.360/.450-.470 range (and now that I look those are close to their exact numbers in AAA last season...I knew they looked familiar). Don't want to bury Reddick or anything but I think Kalish is the RF of the future.

3. Ranaudo - Didn't dazzle in Salem but struck out over a batter an inning in Greenville and it's his first pro season.
4. Bogaerts - Way advanced for his age, oodles of potential, awesome name, good walk rate and his numbers would look even gaudier with an average BABIP (he's around .270). Looks like a future #1 prospect. Pray he can somehow manage to stick at short.

5. Lavarnway - He'll hit, might hit a fuckton, might do it as a catcher
6. Iglesias - Offense is scary bad right now and can't put him in my top 5 until the tools (quick hands and whatnot) translate to something. I don't think he had any business beginning this season in AAA. Doesn't need a ton of offense with his perfect glove, just more than he's shown. Still very young and has plenty of time to put it together.

7. Barnes - Top ten talent slipped for no reason other than a deep draft. I never really know what to do with new draftees but this kind of talent should be in the org's top ten.
8. Swihart - By all accounts Swihart is another serious talent, so he goes in this particular arbitrary group
9. Coyle - Surprising bump to full season ball but he, like X, proved that it was completely deserved. Advanced approach, a lot of pop for his size and good speed. Love this guy. Not worried about the strikeouts at all considering he's way ahead of the curve age-wise.
10. Brentz - RH power!!!! All he does is mash.
11. Jacobs - Power and Speed, took a huge leap this year and could be a monster if he continues to improve.

12. Doubront - Definite major league pitcher, unsure of his role in Boston.
13. Weiland - Definite major league pitcher, unsure of his role in Boston (I like Weiland as a reliever better than Doubront).

14. Cecchini - I hope they're aggressive with his placement next year if he is healthy and ready to go.
15. Head - More RH power!!!!

16. JBJ - Not a completely wow pick/prospect coming off injury but looks like a guy that will at least do everything well with potential for a lot more considering how he was perceived before this season.
17. Wilson - Let's see what happens when he inevitably gets his shot out of the pen.

18. Britton - Still has electric stuff and, last time I checked, still throws left-handed.
19. Pimentel - Couldn't make the leap to AA, try again next year.

20. CBM - Great in Salem, good (and pretty unlucky from the looks of it) in Portland. Ground ball machine with good strikeout numbers. Appears to be criminally underrated by SP.com

Tazawa, Tejeda, Owens, Ramos, Hassan (Despite low ranking I think he's the 4th OF for Boston within two years), Couch, Stroup, Raul Alcantara, Workman, Vitek and I'll throw in Vinicio to round out the top 30ish.

Basically, the system is super deep and they should have a bunch of guys on top 100 lists after this season.

Edited by Jed Zeppelin, 26 August 2011 - 01:21 AM.


#43 Wake's knuckle

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Posted 26 August 2011 - 03:53 AM

There's been plenty of good hitting, poor fielding SS's, like Miguel Tejada, Toby Harrah, or Julio Franco; not sure what you're trying to prove here. Wins are wins be they from a guy's glove or his bat. And Ordonez was barely above replacement for his career (0.6 WAR).


I'll disagree with this slightly -- a pitching staff benefits a lot psychologically from having someone who can REALLY pick it at SS. Plus, there's nothing like a double play to kill a rally. This is the one position where I would favor going glove over bat...

#44 LeftyTG

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Posted 26 August 2011 - 07:32 AM

My list is split into groups. The specific numbers are more or less interchangeable within the groups.

1. Middlebrooks - Very strong glove, strong present offensive skills with big potential, looks like a Beltre-type player to me
2. Kalish - Unfortunately wasn't able to build on his breakout year in 2010. Perhaps less pure upside than Reddick but projects as a more consistent and patient hitter with enough power to play RF, especially with his defensive abilities. Reddick has played well but I think as an MLB regular his line will look something like .260/.300/.450ish, not completely terrible but I see Kalish more in the .300/.360/.450-.470 range (and now that I look those are close to their exact numbers in AAA last season...I knew they looked familiar). Don't want to bury Reddick or anything but I think Kalish is the RF of the future.

3. Ranaudo - Didn't dazzle in Salem but struck out over a batter an inning in Greenville and it's his first pro season.
4. Bogaerts - Way advanced for his age, oodles of potential, awesome name, good walk rate and his numbers would look even gaudier with an average BABIP (he's around .270). Looks like a future #1 prospect. Pray he can somehow manage to stick at short.

5. Lavarnway - He'll hit, might hit a fuckton, might do it as a catcher
6. Iglesias - Offense is scary bad right now and can't put him in my top 5 until the tools (quick hands and whatnot) translate to something. I don't think he had any business beginning this season in AAA. Doesn't need a ton of offense with his perfect glove, just more than he's shown. Still very young and has plenty of time to put it together.

7. Barnes - Top ten talent slipped for no reason other than a deep draft. I never really know what to do with new draftees but this kind of talent should be in the org's top ten.
8. Swihart - By all accounts Swihart is another serious talent, so he goes in this particular arbitrary group
9. Coyle - Surprising bump to full season ball but he, like X, proved that it was completely deserved. Advanced approach, a lot of pop for his size and good speed. Love this guy. Not worried about the strikeouts at all considering he's way ahead of the curve age-wise.
10. Brentz - RH power!!!! All he does is mash.
11. Jacobs - Power and Speed, took a huge leap this year and could be a monster if he continues to improve.

12. Doubront - Definite major league pitcher, unsure of his role in Boston.
13. Weiland - Definite major league pitcher, unsure of his role in Boston (I like Weiland as a reliever better than Doubront).

14. Cecchini - I hope they're aggressive with his placement next year if he is healthy and ready to go.
15. Head - More RH power!!!!

16. JBJ - Not a completely wow pick/prospect coming off injury but looks like a guy that will at least do everything well with potential for a lot more considering how he was perceived before this season.
17. Wilson - Let's see what happens when he inevitably gets his shot out of the pen.

18. Britton - Still has electric stuff and, last time I checked, still throws left-handed.
19. Pimentel - Couldn't make the leap to AA, try again next year.

20. CBM - Great in Salem, good (and pretty unlucky from the looks of it) in Portland. Ground ball machine with good strikeout numbers. Appears to be criminally underrated by SP.com

Tazawa, Tejeda, Owens, Ramos, Hassan (Despite low ranking I think he's the 4th OF for Boston within two years), Couch, Stroup, Raul Alcantara, Workman, Vitek and I'll throw in Vinicio to round out the top 30ish.

Basically, the system is super deep and they should have a bunch of guys on top 100 lists after this season.


I'm curious - do you not see Lars as a top 30 player in the system or did you forget about him in your rankings?

#45 Jed Zeppelin


  • SoSH Member


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Posted 26 August 2011 - 01:36 PM

I'm curious - do you not see Lars as a top 30 player in the system or did you forget about him in your rankings?


Thought I had included Lars in the unnumbered group. He's definitely in there but I fully expect him to be traded out of the system before long.

#46 jscola85

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Posted 26 August 2011 - 04:18 PM

No love for Christian Vazquez in the top 20 eh? Kid turned 21 this week, is mashing in Greenville and is reportedly a very good to great defensive catcher. Though looking at lists it's hard to argue who he should be ahead of. The low minors for the Sox are chock-full of talent these days.

#47 someoneanywhere

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Posted 26 August 2011 - 05:01 PM

Top 20? No. But he's way too low -- something like 56 or so -- over at Prospects. Top 35 in my book -- with a bullet.

#48 SoxScout


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Posted 26 August 2011 - 05:16 PM

I'll post mine after the MiLB season, but I'll bet that 2 of 3 of Britton, Tejeda and Pimentel are in the Sox Prospects Top 10 by July next year.

#49 RoDaddy

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Posted 26 August 2011 - 10:51 PM

4. Bogaerts - Way advanced for his age, oodles of potential, awesome name, good walk rate and his numbers would look even gaudier with an average BABIP (he's around .270). Looks like a future #1 prospect. Pray he can somehow manage to stick at short.

I think there's a handful of guys that could be considered number 1 in the system, and just to be different, I"ll pick Bogaerts. His .830 OPS and 14 dingers at 18 years old in a little more than half a season of middle A is one of the most impressive seasons I've seen for any Sox minor league in recent years. I like to compare him with Hanley except that for power, Bogaerts far exceeds Hanley at similar years of development. I also hope Bogaerts sticks at short but the high number of errors (25 errors)is a bit of a concern - and another similarity to Hanley!

Edited by RoDaddy, 26 August 2011 - 10:53 PM.


#50 chester

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Posted 27 August 2011 - 03:15 AM

I'll post mine after the MiLB season, but I'll bet that 2 of 3 of Britton, Tejeda and Pimentel are in the Sox Prospects Top 10 by July next year.


I see Pimentel moving up there as he has turned back to his dominant ability but what do you see in the other two? And maybe this belongs in the Pimentel thread but I am so glad to that he turned around his season, I truly thought he had a shot at being in the bigs at least in the bullpen in 2012. If he shines next year I could see him being brought up in September.