Jump to content


Yo! You're not logged in. Why am I seeing this ad?

Photo

2011 NFL Gambling Thread


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
432 replies to this topic

#401 bowiac


  • I've been living a lie.


  • 9581 posts

Posted 03 February 2012 - 11:08 AM

Each team has an o/u of four punts. Hard not to take the over for both.

The Patriots punted 57 times this year, and 58 times last year (similar caliber/style offenses). Plus 9 more punts in 3 postseason games. That's an average of 3.5 per game. The Giants bet is a bit harder to peg. They had 80 punts in 19 games this year, but 12 of those were vs. San Fransisco. Depending on flukish you think that number is, I could see a justification for the under there too, but I can see the over there too.

I think if you're gonna take the over on Patriots punts though, you might as well just bet the under and the Giants.

#402 bowiac


  • I've been living a lie.


  • 9581 posts

Posted 03 February 2012 - 11:20 AM

Hilariously enough, I found a bet on a hispanic player to win the Super Bowl MVP at +1000. I actually kind of like that bet. QBs win about 50% of the time. After that, in recent years it's been receivers who win. If you think Cruz, Gronk, Hernandez, Nicks, Welker, and Manningham basically split the non QB MVP wins, then that bet should be +600. Since I'm being offered +1000, I think it's a fine bet.

Your opinion on matchups could adjust this of course.

#403 WayBackVazquez


  • white knight against high school nookie


  • 5197 posts

Posted 03 February 2012 - 11:20 AM

Bill Barnwell went through the math on safeties in general, and the odds are well off if you think these two teams are about equally likely to allow a safety as a random NFL team. I tend to think they are, and that the clumping on these two teams in particular is basically just random. They're such fluke events that the additional sample size of using the entire NFL outweighs the significance of using the data on these two particular teams.


So when you said you liked the bet, what you meant was this dude from Grantland likes it? Maybe he "did the math," but he sure didn't show his work. His "unofficial count" of 8 safeties this year was only off by about 13 safeties in the regular season.

#404 bowiac


  • I've been living a lie.


  • 9581 posts

Posted 03 February 2012 - 11:33 AM

So when you said you liked the bet, what you meant was this dude from Grantland likes it? Maybe he "did the math," but he sure didn't show his work. His "unofficial count" of 8 safeties this year was only off by about 13 safeties in the regular season.

That's a fair point that he apparently miscounted badly, but I don't really think there's anything wrong with getting ideas from others. That's kind of the point of this thread.

#405 BellhornIsGod

  • 173 posts

Posted 03 February 2012 - 11:34 AM

Over under on Kelly Clarkson's National Anthem currently sits at 1:33.5

Just watched 6 of her anthems from past events and they were 1:25, 1:26, 1:27, 1:28.5, 1:29 and 1:32 for an average of 1:28.4.

$250 On the under plz

#406 WayBackVazquez


  • white knight against high school nookie


  • 5197 posts

Posted 03 February 2012 - 11:44 AM

That's a fair point that he apparently miscounted badly, but I don't really think there's anything wrong with getting ideas from others. That's kind of the point of this thread.


I never said you couldn't get ideas elsewhere. I just asked you why you liked the bet, since we both agree this is basically a math bet, and I had done some math making me think this was a pretty bad bet. I would have figured you had done some yourself. It's basically a 12:1 that you have to pay 16:1 for. Pretty exceptionally bad advice your guy is giving.

#407 MentalDisabldLst


  • Prefers spit over lube


  • 13540 posts

Posted 03 February 2012 - 12:25 PM

Over under on Kelly Clarkson's National Anthem currently sits at 1:33.5

Just watched 6 of her anthems from past events and they were 1:25, 1:26, 1:27, 1:28.5, 1:29 and 1:32 for an average of 1:28.4.

$250 On the under plz


You, sir, are my kind of obsessive. The dedication it must take to sit through Kelly Clarkson singing the national anthem six times... wow.

#408 Marciano490


  • Urological Expert


  • 8175 posts

Posted 03 February 2012 - 01:16 PM

Over under on Kelly Clarkson's National Anthem currently sits at 1:33.5

Just watched 6 of her anthems from past events and they were 1:25, 1:26, 1:27, 1:28.5, 1:29 and 1:32 for an average of 1:28.4.

$250 On the under plz


What events? Anything similar to stage she'll be on Sunday? I can see her dragging it out a little longer for the additional audience.

#409 BellhornIsGod

  • 173 posts

Posted 03 February 2012 - 01:40 PM

You, sir, are my kind of obsessive. The dedication it must take to sit through Kelly Clarkson singing the national anthem six times... wow.


As bad as it sucked it was actually somewhat mesmerizing to watch her transform from cute-ish pop star to someone who looked like she just ate a cute-ish pop star.

Also if I make the $225 that I expect to, I can justify the 10 minutes I spent. If she drags out the last note..well then fuck her.


Marciano- The events were all big time. '03 Finals in San Antonio, '11 Finals in Dallas, Thanksgiving Cowboys Game, Yankees Opening Day, Rangers World Series, and a 6th I can't remember. So nothing as big as the Super Bowl but pretty legit events.

The thing that makes me confident is that in all 6 she doesn't hold the final "Brave" note at all, In any of the 6 renditions. Unlike someone like Aguilera who holds it for like 12 seconds (I did this same thing last year and won).

And plus betting on the National Anthem is strangely fun.

#410 Marciano490


  • Urological Expert


  • 8175 posts

Posted 03 February 2012 - 01:45 PM

And plus betting on the National Anthem is strangely fun.


Agreed. Seems patriotic, like our duty as Americans. If I win on this, I'm going to buy an eagle.

#411 johnmd20


  • voice of soccer


  • 16518 posts

Posted 04 February 2012 - 12:26 PM

Agreed. Seems patriotic, like our duty as Americans. If I win on this, I'm going to buy an eagle.


Just keep it away from Clarkson, she might eat it.

#412 Old Fart Tree


  • the maven of meat


  • 5087 posts

Posted 04 February 2012 - 12:32 PM

That Giants to receive opening kickoff is now -260.

#413 Red Averages


  • owes you $50


  • 2280 posts

Posted 04 February 2012 - 02:52 PM

There are some notable inconsistencies between sportsbooks. For example, Bodog has Ohco Total receptions .5 O(-125), U(+130) while Sportsbook.com has Ohco will he have atleast one reception Yes (-105), No (-125). So if you take Ohco under .5 on Bodog and Ohco will have atleast one reception on Sportsbook, your maximum loss per $100 bet (on each site) is $5 and your maximum win is 30.

#414 Oil Can Dan

  • 4913 posts

Posted 04 February 2012 - 06:34 PM

I'm in Vegas. According to the head of the sports book at Aria, almost all the action is on NY.

(null)

#415 lusky

  • 5 posts

Posted 05 February 2012 - 01:32 AM

From what I hear, many,many bets going on Giants but they are small. Big money going on Pats. Hope the rich guys are right

#416 crystalline

  • 2211 posts

Posted 05 February 2012 - 09:58 AM

What I heard Todd Fuhrman (Caesers bookmaker) explain is that the common understanding that Vegas is just trying to split the betting on both sides is overstated. While they will do that sometimes, they are also often quite happy to take a position and risk exposure to a loss.


Thanks for this. I had always thought the line would be moved to split the betting, and people here had occasionally stated the opposite. But this makes total sense - the books have enough capital to take positions with short term downside if they believe they'll have higher payoff in the long run. In other words, you're saying the books are taking value positions, not trying to read movement of the market. On thinking about it, if I'm a Vegas book, that's what I would do too.

Edited by crystalline, 05 February 2012 - 10:56 AM.


#417 Dehere

  • 2420 posts

Posted 05 February 2012 - 10:43 AM

Over/under on US TV viewership of the game is 117 million. I'm in for a couple hundred bucks on the under.

Last year's figure was 111 million. Size of the participating markets can be overrated here. National fan bases are more important to SB viewership and NYG/NE is not as good as GB/PIT. Regular season viewership was actually down for all networks combined and the playoffs were up 2%. I don't really see an increase of over 5% coming here.

#418 jkempa

  • 4942 posts

Posted 05 February 2012 - 12:27 PM

I see a prop with my guy that is first team to kick off
+250 Giants
-300 Patriots

Does this make any sense to anyone? Seems like this is a gift to bet on the Giants here, especially as the coin toss line is -110 for both. What am I missing?

#419 Old Fart Tree


  • the maven of meat


  • 5087 posts

Posted 05 February 2012 - 12:30 PM

Um, we talked about this upthread. The Pats, if the yin the toss, almost always defer. The Giants have for the most part taken the ball (with a few recent exceptions).

#420 Hambone


  • will post for drinks


  • 1997 posts

Posted 05 February 2012 - 12:31 PM

The Giants have received every time they've won the toss this year - At least I think that's true. I'm too lazy to look it up.

#421 Old Fart Tree


  • the maven of meat


  • 5087 posts

Posted 05 February 2012 - 02:46 PM

I think they deferred once in the playoffs - to the Falcons maybe? Anyway, it's pretty close. Someone in Vegas fucked up when that line came out flat, and it has since gone nuts.

FYI - line starting to creep back up, sharps must be pounding the Pats. Still 3.0, but was -120 for the Giants +3, even for the Pats -3, now -115/-105...

#422 SMU_Sox


  • loves his fluffykins


  • 5102 posts

Posted 05 February 2012 - 04:42 PM

So here is my final goofy bet list.

Anything not specified is $1 to the winner straight up.

1) Point spread bet.
-Pats win by less than 3 = John wins
-Pats win by more than 7 = Jacob wins
-Pats win by 3 to 7 = push
-Giants win = push


2) Team to score first.
-Pats score first = Jacob wins
-Giants score first = John wins

3) First score of the game will be:
-TD = Jacob wins
-FG or safety = John wins

4) Will the team that scores first win the game?
-No = John wins
-Yes = Jacob wins


5) Deion Branch first reception O/U on yards is 15.
-Over 15 = Jacob wins
-Under 15 = John wins
-15 = push

6) Gronk longest reception O/U 21.5, Over is -140, under is +110. I
will take the over.
-Over 21.5 = John wins
-Under 21.5 = Jacob wins

7) Will he score a TD (Gronk)?
-2 TDs = Jacob wins 2
-Less than 2 TDs = John wins 1

8) Lawfirm total rush yards O/U 47.5.
-Over 47.5 = John wins
-Under 47.5 = Jacob wins

9) Will Eli throw a TD or INT first?
INT = John wins 2
TD = Jacob wins 1

10) Will Eli's first TD pass be over or under 10.5 yards?
Over = John wins
Under = Jacob wins

11) Will Manningham score a TD?
Yes = John wins 2
No = Jacob wins 1

12) Will Brandon Jacobs score a TD?
Yes = John wins 1
No = Jacob wins 2

13) Brady's longest reception
Over 41.5 = Jacob wins 1.5
Under 41.5 = John wins 1

14) Will Brady have 3.5 more completions than Eli?
No = Jacob wins
Yes = John wins
Brady by more than

15) Who throws the first TD?
Brady = John wins
Eli = Jacob wins

16) Pat's first TD
Rushing = Jacob wins 2
Passing = John wins 1

17) Will Bradshaw have 8 rushing yards more than Law Firm?
Yes = Jacob wins
No = John wins

18) Will there be a defense/special teams TD?
No = Jacob wins 1
Yes = John wins 4

19) Will a D or O lineman or a linebacker score a TD?
Yes = John wins 15
No = Jacob wins 1

20) Will there be a game winning FG in the last 11 seconds of the game?
Yes = Jacob wins 15
No = John wins 1

21) Will Julian Edelman return an INT for a TD?
No = Jacob wins .02
Yes = John wins 20

We're just having fun here. I went with my gut on pretty much all of them instead of looking stuff up. I just felt like cutting lose, not looking at a spread sheet, and having fun. We've capped losses at $20 for me and $25 for him since he already owes me $9.02. I realize this seems like kid stuff but it's so much fun for me.

#423 patinorange


  • SoSH Member


  • 8006 posts

Posted 05 February 2012 - 06:06 PM

Just made my bets in the sports book here in Vegas. The Pats to win -3, the over 53.5, and my crazy prop, 20-1 that Julian Edelman scores the first TD of the game.
It's wild in Vegas as usual on Super Sunday, the jersey's are overwhelmning for NY. I'm in the room now, no way I could watch the Pats in a sports book.

#424 Gammon_Clark

  • 143 posts

Posted 05 February 2012 - 06:15 PM

Serious question: Is the overwhelming difference in NYG jerseys vs. NE jerseys more attributable Pats fans not traveling well, or the Giants just having a much larger fanbase in general? If this were the Sox and the Mets it would be different, right?

Edit: In a world where baseball was a one game winner take all at a neutral city like Indy...

Edited by Gammon_Clark, 05 February 2012 - 06:15 PM.


#425 santadevil

  • 835 posts

Posted 05 February 2012 - 06:56 PM

I like no safety at -1600.


Crazy...first scoring play of the game.

#426 MentalDisabldLst


  • Prefers spit over lube


  • 13540 posts

Posted 06 February 2012 - 12:51 AM

yeah, I hope nobody went in for a bunch of money on the Safety play, that would suck...

#427 Hambone


  • will post for drinks


  • 1997 posts

Posted 06 February 2012 - 03:56 PM

Over under on Kelly Clarkson's National Anthem currently sits at 1:33.5

Just watched 6 of her anthems from past events and they were 1:25, 1:26, 1:27, 1:28.5, 1:29 and 1:32 for an average of 1:28.4.

$250 On the under plz


How'd this turn out? I was trying to time it unofficially and it seemed very close.

Edit - SB Nation says 1:34, but not sure that's official. If so thoughts and prayers

http://www.sbnation....-kelly-clarkson

Edited by Hambone, 06 February 2012 - 03:57 PM.


#428 phrenile


  • SoSH Member


  • 5951 posts

Posted 06 February 2012 - 04:08 PM

How'd this turn out? I was trying to time it unofficially and it seemed very close.

Edit - SB Nation says 1:34, but not sure that's official. If so thoughts and prayers

http://www.sbnation....-kelly-clarkson


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PE6nkyVoI40

Starts at 0:13; hits the last note at 1:44 and drags it out to around 1:49, though it's hard to tell with all the noise. (Also, with the sound of the crowd.)

#429 Marciano490


  • Urological Expert


  • 8175 posts

Posted 06 February 2012 - 06:15 PM

How'd this turn out? I was trying to time it unofficially and it seemed very close.

Edit - SB Nation says 1:34, but not sure that's official. If so thoughts and prayers

http://www.sbnation....-kelly-clarkson


I bet it at 1:34 and it showed up today as a loss, for whatever that's worth. In the future, I think I'll avoid bets whose outcomes are not conclusively verifiable except by the people holding the money.

#430 Deathofthebambino


  • Drive Carefully


  • 14972 posts

Posted 06 February 2012 - 06:31 PM

Crazy...first scoring play of the game.


One of the guys I was with yesterday had the first scoring play of the game as a safety. I believe it was +3500. Not a bad hit to open the game. He then went on to win both squares in the first and second quarter, about a dozen other props and all of his game bets (he had Giants and Under everywhere).

My day was basically the complete opposite.

#431 BellhornIsGod

  • 173 posts

Posted 07 February 2012 - 08:06 AM

How'd this turn out? I was trying to time it unofficially and it seemed very close.

Edit - SB Nation says 1:34, but not sure that's official. If so thoughts and prayers

http://www.sbnation....-kelly-clarkson


Yup official time was just a shade over 1:34..not fun. I blame the choir children for making her hold the note.

#432 Oil Can Dan

  • 4913 posts

Posted 07 February 2012 - 11:17 AM

I think Vegas got hurt badly on this game. I think around 70% of the money was on NY in one way or the other. I had 44 different bets on the game and while I missed a few of those I pretty well cleaned up. Best bet was my NYG to win it all at 18-1 (bet was made on Dec 31st just prior to Cowboy game). If only Woodhead would have finished with 21 yards I would have killed it (had him under 23 1/2 and over 20 1/2 and he finished with 16).

#433 bowiac


  • I've been living a lie.


  • 9581 posts

Posted 07 February 2012 - 12:14 PM

I think Vegas got hurt badly on this game. I think around 70% of the money was on NY in one way or the other. I had 44 different bets on the game and while I missed a few of those I pretty well cleaned up. Best bet was my NYG to win it all at 18-1 (bet was made on Dec 31st just prior to Cowboy game). If only Woodhead would have finished with 21 yards I would have killed it (had him under 23 1/2 and over 20 1/2 and he finished with 16).

Vegas made money on the game overall. Keep in mind, something like 40% of total money is on props, many of which have dreadful odds. Also, there was a lot of action on the Patriots late Saturday/early Sunday. A lot of bettors with huge bankrolls bet the Patriots once the line moved down as much as it was going to.

That said, it was the 2nd least profitable Super Bowl of the last 10 years.