Wow, I really don't like your Gronk bets, especially receptions and receiving yards. Those numbers look like about right before having to fade injury chances and the big vig.
Let me make a confession. My friend and I are making the bets and using the vigs as odds to bet against each other. Our standard bet is $1.00. He is going to make some of the same types of player prop bets but for the Giants. I guess my personal feelings are getting in the way of my objectivity. These aren’t great bets. I’ll gladly admit my bets on Gronk are more optimistic than what they should be. I feel that he is going to be healthier than we expect. When reading the vigs though, yes, I was shocked that I was going to have to pay a premium on an injured player. But that reflects one or two things: that 1) Vegas doesn’t think his health is an issue, and/or 2) Vegas thinks their customers don’t think his health is an issue.
I also took a flyer on Deion Branch as well, that his first reception will be over 9.5 yards.
I don’t recommend these, just saying this is what I am gambling on this weekend based on what I think will happen.
I’m betting on my gut, which FYI is pretty…robust, so to speak.
I have other bets too which I will list just for the halibut:
Money line is -135 for the Pats and +115 for the Giants. Give me the Pats.
Point spread bet - I'd take NE -2.5.
55 is the O/U. I am leaning towards the under.
Team to score first: the odds are -120 for the Giants and -105 for the Pats. I'd take the Giants.
First score of the game will be: -180 for TD, +150 for FG or Safety. I'd take FG or safety.
Will the team that scores first win the game? -165 for Yes, +135 for No. I want No.
Team to score last in the first half - Giants -115, Pats -115. I'd take Pats.
I am going to end up losing more than winning here, I think, but I will have fun doing it. Plus, I’ve built up a whopping 9 dollar and 2 cent cushion against him by winning every bet except for 1 (a push) this post season. If I end up paying him 5 bucks or so but it made the game that much more interesting for me I am willing to eat that cost.